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  #3551  
Old 02-11-2020, 08:48 PM
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Yang and Bennett both out.
"Suspended" campaigns, though. So in the event of something unusual happening, either can jump back in. Not to mention,

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Under Federal Election Commission funding regulations, politicians can continue to collect money for paying off campaign fees well after an election, so long as their campaign is just suspended.
https://www.waywordradio.org/suspend-a-campaign/
  #3552  
Old 02-11-2020, 08:49 PM
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If a New Thing of making words out of "Klob" is compulsory, then I am going to actively campaign against Klobuchar.



That, or klobber someone.
Klobucharge!
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  #3553  
Old 02-11-2020, 08:50 PM
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Klobucharge!
I don't think that's helping her.
  #3554  
Old 02-11-2020, 08:55 PM
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What makes Klobuchar's success odd is that she doesn't have one defining characteristic that immediately jumps out to all voters, unlike most other candidates.

Bernie - the democratic socialist guy
Warren - like a female version of Bernie
Yang - the UBI Asian guy, but he's gone now
Bloomberg - the billionaire
Pete - the gay guy who is really young
Biden - former VP

Klobuchar - ?
  #3555  
Old 02-11-2020, 09:15 PM
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Klobuchar is my favorite of the moderates, because of two things - firstly, she's dominated her elections in Minnesota, doing far better than the state's partisan lean. Secondly, she's super sharp - she was the best Senator in the Kavanaugh hearings, by my memory, and she's a very good debater. She's not great on the stump, but I'm not sure if anyone is this cycle.

But I support Bernie right now, for two reasons - I think the best chance to win is with excitement, and he's delivering the most excitement by far from what I can see, and because I think the system sucks so much that we need big changes, not the kind of incremental changes Klobuchar would probably offer.
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:28 PM
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"Suspended" campaigns, though.
That is what every single candidate does. For the money reasons you mentioned, not to jump back in.
  #3557  
Old 02-11-2020, 10:23 PM
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Klobuchar is my favorite of the moderates, because of two things - firstly, she's dominated her elections in Minnesota, doing far better than the state's partisan lean. Secondly, she's super sharp - she was the best Senator in the Kavanaugh hearings, by my memory, and she's a very good debater. She's not great on the stump, but I'm not sure if anyone is this cycle.

But I support Bernie right now, for two reasons - I think the best chance to win is with excitement, and he's delivering the most excitement by far from what I can see, and because I think the system sucks so much that we need big changes, not the kind of incremental changes Klobuchar would probably offer.
I think I agree with all of this analysis. The other thing I'd add about Klobuchar is that other than her maybe less-than-stellar treatment of staff, I'm unaware of any whiff of scandal around her, and that is some refreshing shit right there.
  #3558  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:09 PM
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I think I agree with all of this analysis. The other thing I'd add about Klobuchar is that other than her maybe less-than-stellar treatment of staff, I'm unaware of any whiff of scandal around her, and that is some refreshing shit right there.
Trump doesnít even have a disparaging nickname for her ... yet.
  #3559  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:21 PM
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Trump doesnít even have a disparaging nickname for her ... yet.
My prediction is he'll make a running gag out of being unable to pronounce it.
  #3560  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:23 PM
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I think I agree with all of this analysis. The other thing I'd add about Klobuchar is that other than her maybe less-than-stellar treatment of staff, I'm unaware of any whiff of scandal around her, and that is some refreshing shit right there.
The prosecutorial stuff will be used against her. I’m not saying it’s fair and the same stuff was used against Kamala but I bet Twitter is exploding with it tomorrow
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  #3561  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:08 AM
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The prosecutorial stuff will be used against her. Iím not saying itís fair and the same stuff was used against Kamala but I bet Twitter is exploding with it tomorrow
Harris was completely unaffected by the prosecutorial stuff. She collapsed under the weight of her own horrible campaign decisions.

Klobuchar has already shown she can defend her prosecutorial record. Honestly I think that the conception that Black Americans are against Law and Order is off base. A prosecutor who has gone after drug dealers and repeat offenders is not third rail in that community I don't think. Drug dealers may be "non-violent" offenders but they harm communities nevertheless. Bias in policing and violence by police are issues; not a preference for keeping drug dealers on the street.
  #3562  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:43 AM
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The Democratic party could do worse than Klobuchar but she does have some electabality problems too. She has done well in Minnesota but there is a huge question mark about her ability to lead a multi-racial coalition around the country. I also think the story about staff mistreatment is real and will hurt her if she becomes more prominent. It's the kind of thing voters can understand immediately and she appears to be an outlier even DC standards. Secondly it calls into question her basic management skills . I believe when the story first came out it was in the context of her inability to fill some important staff position because of her reputation which is an absolute red flag and calls into question her ability to run both a long campaign and eventually the White House.

On the flip side she is the only candidate who is not too old or young, who has the appropriate level of experience and who hasn't adopted a policy position like Medicare for All which could be electoral suicide. I don't quite understand why the Democrats are left with such poor choices but she may well be the least bad one left.
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Old 02-12-2020, 02:11 AM
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FWIW, Yahoo has just put out a graph/image of the cost of Bernie's plans.

Last edited by Velocity; 02-12-2020 at 02:11 AM.
  #3564  
Old 02-12-2020, 08:31 AM
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A good argument about why mainstream and moderate Democrats shouldn't be afraid of a Bernie nomination: https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/211200...bernie-sanders
  #3565  
Old 02-12-2020, 10:07 AM
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Has any major candidate ever collapsed as fast as Biden? I think that’s what happens when your supporters are supporting you not because THEY like you, but because they think everyone else likes you.... that electability thing again.

And I’m wondering if the prospect of general election support by the Bloomberg machine has made Amy and Pete more viable choices.
  #3566  
Old 02-12-2020, 10:21 AM
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Has any major candidate ever collapsed as fast as Biden?
Ed Muskie in 1972. Muskie had been the VP nominee in 1968 and basically started running in 1969. He was the "conventional wisdom" front-runner. He won the Iowa caucus, barely beating back a strong challenge by George McGovern, then reacted poorly to a smear campaign against him in New Hampshire. His campaign pretty much collapsed after that.
  #3567  
Old 02-12-2020, 10:24 AM
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And in horse racing news, the 538 polling average now shows what everyone was thinking as Sanders takes the lead. Bloomberg now effectively tied with Warren for third but with obviously different trajectories.
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Old 02-12-2020, 10:33 AM
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I wonder if Harris regrets getting out when she did. I mean Klobuchar shows that even if you look meh in December, it can turn around in a hurry.
  #3569  
Old 02-12-2020, 11:21 AM
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Ed Muskie in 1972. Muskie had been the VP nominee in 1968 and basically started running in 1969. He was the "conventional wisdom" front-runner. He won the Iowa caucus, barely beating back a strong challenge by George McGovern, then reacted poorly to a smear campaign against him in New Hampshire. His campaign pretty much collapsed after that.
Howard Dean? He won Iowa, said "Yeehaw!" and became a laughing stock and was never heard from again.
  #3570  
Old 02-12-2020, 11:22 AM
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After two contests, the delegate count could be described as:

Progressive Lane: 29
Moderate Lane: 29

Which makes no one look particularly "inevitable".
  #3571  
Old 02-12-2020, 11:23 AM
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Howard Dean? He won Iowa, said "Yeehaw!" and became a laughing stock and was never heard from again.
Well, he didn't technically "win" in Iowa.

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On January 19, 2004, Dean's campaign suffered a staggering blow when a last-minute surge by rivals John Kerry and John Edwards led to a disappointing third-place finish for Dean in the 2004 Iowa Democratic caucuses, representing the first votes cast in primary season. Dean's public address that night was widely rebroadcast and portrayed as a media gaffe that ended his campaign.
  #3572  
Old 02-12-2020, 11:51 AM
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I do NOT understand the 538 prediction model at all. It has Bernie down seven points from yesterday? Nate says it's a combination of the slight underperformance yesterday and bad polls that came in while the model was frozen...but three of the four national polls added since yesterday show him leading! Maybe it's because the field is so spread out...the highest rated of those polls shows him leading the race by ten points, but with 26% of the vote! OTOH, the field was spread out yesterday, too (the model doesn't take Klobuchar seriously). Go figure.
  #3573  
Old 02-12-2020, 11:55 AM
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I do NOT understand the 538 prediction model at all. It has Bernie down seven points from yesterday? Nate says it's a combination of the slight underperformance yesterday and bad polls that came in while the model was frozen...but three of the four national polls added since yesterday show him leading! Maybe it's because the field is so spread out...the highest rated of those polls shows him leading the race by ten points, but with 26% of the vote! OTOH, the field was spread out yesterday, too (the model doesn't take Klobuchar seriously). Go figure.
Right now, ISTM that the 538 model believes something like "Bernie is leading and likely to get the most delegates, but it is questionable if he can get beyond about 30-40% support during most primaries, and thus may not do better than a plurality of delegates".

It's still early, but I trust that this model is a reasonable estimate of the state of the race right now -- Bernie is the front runner and is in the best position by far, but he's still got a long way to go and a lot of things can change.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 02-12-2020 at 11:56 AM.
  #3574  
Old 02-12-2020, 11:57 AM
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I'm sure it's because of the spread out support. If you look at the chart, it sure looks like he lost all 7% to "no one" winning outright.
  #3575  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:00 PM
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I agree that that's a reasonable assessment of the race, and that last night's result doesn't materially change it. I'm just surprised that winning NH didn't make Sanders' numbers go slightly up instead of slightly down.
  #3576  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:02 PM
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I'm sure it's because of the spread out support. If you look at the chart, it sure looks like he lost all 7% to "no one" winning outright.
Yep. I think I got it...the model assumes candidates get a lot of momentum from winning early States, so in worlds where Sanders won NH by a landslide, he became quite likely to win the nomination. Now that all those scenarios are off the table, the average outcome is less rosy.
  #3577  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:11 PM
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I agree that that's a reasonable assessment of the race, and that last night's result doesn't materially change it. I'm just surprised that winning NH didn't make Sanders' numbers go slightly up instead of slightly down.
I think it was because it was so close. Sanders underperformed there (or Buttigieg and Klobuchar overperformed).
  #3578  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:23 PM
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For a bit of levity....On the 538 podcast someone mentioned that those newly interested in Pete and his campaign are “booty curious.”
  #3579  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:34 PM
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Yang and Bennett both out.
Add Patrick to that list
  #3580  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:40 PM
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Has any major candidate ever collapsed as fast as Biden? ....

No one, not even he, thought he'd win in Iowa or NH. If he fails in SD, then it's a "collapse".
  #3581  
Old 02-12-2020, 01:16 PM
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A contested convention seems to be a real possibility.

I hope one of you starts a thread on that general topic. Questions abound: How many types of delegate are there? What are relevant procedures? How are negotiations likely to play out? Does the candidate with largest plurality "deserve" the majority vote?
  #3582  
Old 02-12-2020, 01:20 PM
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Does this picture illustrate what the DNC will do with Bernie Sanders?

LINK

To those who dont want to click, its a picture of Sanders as Charlie Brown and Lucy as the DNC giving the impression the DNC will do what Lucy always did to Charlie Brown and pull the football away.
  #3583  
Old 02-12-2020, 01:56 PM
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I'm just surprised that winning NH didn't make Sanders' numbers go slightly up instead of slightly down.
Well remember that in 2016 he got 60% of the vote (Clinton with 38%) compared to only 26% of the vote this time.

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No one, not even he, thought he'd win in Iowa or NH. If he fails in SD, then it's a "collapse".
Yes it's a collapse: people expected Biden to come in 2nd or 3rd--not 4th in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire.
  #3584  
Old 02-12-2020, 02:02 PM
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Does this picture illustrate what the DNC will do with Bernie Sanders?

LINK

To those who dont want to click, its a picture of Sanders as Charlie Brown and Lucy as the DNC giving the impression the DNC will do what Lucy always did to Charlie Brown and pull the football away.
The DNC can do little to effect the elections. It did almost nothing in 2016, and it had no effect.

But keep this "We wuz robbed!"
  #3585  
Old 02-12-2020, 02:03 PM
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...


Yes it's a collapse: people expected Biden to come in 2nd or 3rd--not 4th in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire.
Oh noes!, he came in 4th instead or 3rd!!!! whatever shall we do!!!

If he doesnt win SD, then we have a collapse. Iowa is now meaningless.
  #3586  
Old 02-12-2020, 02:10 PM
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Oh noes!, he came in 4th instead or 3rd!!!! whatever shall we do!!!

If he doesnt win SD, then we have a collapse. Iowa is now meaningless.
South Dakota is a bit of a road apple too, fyi.
  #3587  
Old 02-12-2020, 02:15 PM
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South Dakota is a bit of a road apple too, fyi.
SC!
  #3588  
Old 02-12-2020, 03:07 PM
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Something that's coming into focus is that Bernie Sanders is clearly the strongest single candidate in the race so far, and I don't think anyone other than Bloomberg has the kind of money-raising machine in the Super Tuesday states that he does. Klobuchar and Buttigieg have competed well, but they spent a ton of time and resources in a very small area. They'll be able to do that in Nevada and South Carolina, but it gets harder going forward. Once we get past February, Bernie has a distinct advantage over everyone except Bloomberg.

On that note, though, there's another thing that's coming into focus and that's the fact that Bernie Sanders' brand of progressivism isn't dominating the party or the race. Bernie is sitting pretty because the moderates are fighting each other, but it's not clear how independent voters would respond to a two-way race between Sanders and Trump.
  #3589  
Old 02-12-2020, 03:19 PM
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A contested convention seems to be a real possibility.

I hope one of you starts a thread on that general topic. Questions abound: How many types of delegate are there? What are relevant procedures? How are negotiations likely to play out? Does the candidate with largest plurality "deserve" the majority vote?
Until somebody does, here's the answer to your first question:

As far as the convention is concerned, there are three types of delegates - pledged delegates, "uncommitted" delegates, and superdelegates.

A pledged delegate is committed to vote for a particular candidate. There is nothing in the Call for the Convention that specifies when a delegate is no longer required to vote for that candidate; presumably, when a candidate withdraws their nomination, those delegates become uncommitted.

Most, if not all, primaries and caucuses allow someone to vote "uncommitted." "Uncommitted" can earn delegates in the same way that a candidate can, but an uncommitted delegate can vote for any candidate at the convention.

A superdelegate is someone who is a delegate because of who they are. Like uncommitted delegates, superdelegates can vote for any candidate. The superdelegates are:
* The 440 members of the Democratic National Committee
* All Democrats currently in Congress
* All Democrats who are currently state governors
* The mayor of Washington, DC
* Former Presidents Obama, Clinton, and Carter
* Former VPs Biden, Gore, and Mondale
* All former chairs of the Democratic National Committee
* All Democrats that are former House and Senate Speakers/Majority/Minority Leaders
However, the superdelegates are not allowed to vote on the first ballot for President at the convention. Note that an "uncommitted" delegate can vote on the first ballot.

There are about 4000 pledged (and uncommitted) delegates, and about 750 superdelegates.
  #3590  
Old 02-12-2020, 04:19 PM
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Thanks, Don — helpful.
  #3591  
Old 02-12-2020, 04:39 PM
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On that note, though, there's another thing that's coming into focus and that's the fact that Bernie Sanders' brand of progressivism isn't dominating the party or the race. Bernie is sitting pretty because the moderates are fighting each other, but it's not clear how independent voters would respond to a two-way race between Sanders and Trump.
I admire Bernie, and i voted for him in the primary (err, caucus) in 2016, and i think he'd do fine Among capital D democrats, but those independent voters and real honest-to-god moderate voters on both sides would stay home on the (D) side, and vote Trump on the (R) side.

I think of my girlfriend's cousins in Kentucky. They are conservative-ish. They don't like Trump. But if its a race against Bernie, they will vote for Trump 6 days a week and twice on Sunday, lest we descend into evil, evil socialism.
  #3592  
Old 02-12-2020, 04:54 PM
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Bernie is a winner. Ask yourself if he has faltered in any sense, in any answer he has given in 5 years. He hasn't.

I never bought into the "bernie got cheated" last time. But this time it is so striking the trouble they have on MSNBC to give him credit for anything.

last night two older pundits complained that if you add amy and petes totals they would beat bernie. WTF.

Ari Melber had a live one recently who said she voted for Bernie because they were dissing him on MSNBC! That's a real american.
  #3593  
Old 02-12-2020, 05:33 PM
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Wife and I voted early today. In the last 2 weeks we've had 5 volunteers come to our door, all for Bernie. We've also gotten a handful of Bernie phone calls. No other candidate, except one Bloomberg call that we didn't answer.
  #3594  
Old 02-12-2020, 07:03 PM
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I think of my girlfriend's cousins in Kentucky. They are conservative-ish. They don't like Trump. But if its a race against Bernie, they will vote for Trump 6 days a week and twice on Sunday, lest we descend into evil, evil socialism.
I would vote for Bernie if it came down to him and Trump, but honestly, I'd be taking my barf bag with me, knowing that he'll be dragging the Democratic party either to a George McGovern-esque loss, or permanently destroying the Democratic brand as an accidental president.

And I still cannot for the life of my why Sanders wants to label himself a democratic socialist, when it would be much more attractive to call himself a social capitalist, which is far more appealing to most people.
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Old 02-12-2020, 07:16 PM
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There's no normal to go back to. "Bipartisan" these days means if you're a dem you show up for a subpeona, because you know your place, and your opponent has got more mojo than you and does what he wants. Then he gives you a little entitled liberal name calling attitude for the chaser.

And that is a US employee. Whose salary we are paying, us democrats.

Good luck with the middle of the road.
  #3596  
Old 02-12-2020, 07:23 PM
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I agree that there's no working with the republican party, but it's a mistake to assume that centrism is dead. It's quite the opposite. It's the parties - both parties - that are withering on the vine, and as a result there's political shifting that's taking place. Independents are where the deciding votes are. Some independents are really undercover republicans, but others are more malleable.

I don't want to poo poo Sanders too much - he's clearly not my guy, but as I said, I'll vote for him in the end and I'd probably be out there encouraging others to vote against Trump if nothing else. But I'm very much concerned that Sanders would approach the election with an uncompromising hard left position and that this might not be his moment the way he and his supporters envision.
  #3597  
Old 02-12-2020, 07:25 PM
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There are three likely outcomes for the progressive-left D's should Bernie get the nomination, and two of them are bad.

1. Bernie loses to Trump - perhaps big, like McGovern in 1972 - huge setback for the progressives.
2. Bernie wins the presidency, but is a one-term failure due to intense opposition from Congressional R's and also some centrist D's - gets little done, or, whatever he does get done, leads to a backlash far fiercer than Obamacare faced. No Democrats then dare run on a "progressive" platform for some years to come.
3. Bernie wins, successfully transforms the nation into democratic socialism, wins reelection, is a transformational, popular president.



1# and 2# are likelier than 3#. 3# is something that would take quite a few things all falling into place at the same time to happen.

Last edited by Velocity; 02-12-2020 at 07:25 PM.
  #3598  
Old 02-12-2020, 07:33 PM
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There are three likely outcomes for the progressive-left D's should Bernie get the nomination, and two of them are bad.

1. Bernie loses to Trump - perhaps big, like McGovern in 1972 - huge setback for the progressives.
2. Bernie wins the presidency, but is a one-term failure due to intense opposition from Congressional R's and also some centrist D's - gets little done, or, whatever he does get done, leads to a backlash far fiercer than Obamacare faced. No Democrats then dare run on a "progressive" platform for some years to come.
3. Bernie wins, successfully transforms the nation into democratic socialism, wins reelection, is a transformational, popular president.



1# and 2# are likelier than 3#. 3# is something that would take quite a few things all falling into place at the same time to happen.
There are some utterly massive gray areas in there that are just as likely, if not more so, than any of these.
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Old 02-12-2020, 08:23 PM
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Originally Posted by asahi View Post
I agree that there's no working with the republican party, but it's a mistake to assume that centrism is dead. It's quite the opposite. It's the parties - both parties - that are withering on the vine, and as a result there's political shifting that's taking place. Independents are where the deciding votes are. Some independents are really undercover republicans, but others are more malleable.

I don't want to poo poo Sanders too much - he's clearly not my guy, but as I said, I'll vote for him in the end and I'd probably be out there encouraging others to vote against Trump if nothing else. But I'm very much concerned that Sanders would approach the election with an uncompromising hard left position and that this might not be his moment the way he and his supporters envision.
I was surprised. Who is your ideal?

Also: Both parties are not comparable.

If centrism isn't dead how is it alive after Garland, and the deluge? Who is your counterpart in it?

Last edited by drad dog; 02-12-2020 at 08:26 PM.
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Old 02-12-2020, 08:46 PM
Thing Fish is offline
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Can people stop talking about McGovern? It’s not 1972. We’re in a hyper-partisan era. Either party could nominate Zombie Hitler and still get 45%.
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