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  #1  
Old 01-05-2020, 11:41 AM
dalej42 is offline
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Weíve got polls!


Hereís a thread to discuss post holiday polls leading up to Iowa.
First up is a CBS/YouGov poll:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-...-tracker-poll/

Bernie/Biden/Buttigieg all tied at 23% and Warren in a poor 4th with 16% and Klobuchar at 7%.

First thing to note is everyone else is below 3%. Barring a miracle, Yang and Steyer ainít making the next debate and theyíre done. Itís also time for Booker to close up shop.

This is just awful for Warren, it really looks like the M4A flip flop hurt her and spending all of December ranting about wine caves may not have been what the voters want to here.

For New Hampshire itís Bernie at 27%, Biden 25%, Warren at 18%, Pete at 13%, and Klobuchar 7%. Not much of a neighbor state bump for Warren in NH. A 4th place and a 3rd place for Warren doesnít give her much of a path going forward with Biden likely to steamroll SC.

Iím definitely eager for the next Ann Selzer poll of Iowa to see how well they correlate.
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Last edited by dalej42; 01-05-2020 at 11:42 AM.
  #2  
Old 01-05-2020, 01:26 PM
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Warrens medicare flop was bad, but in the last debate she just wrote off economists as 'wrong'. Liberals generally want a politician who lives in reality, so that probably hurt her even more.

I'm wondering if she will drop out after NH, and if so where her voters will go.
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Old 01-05-2020, 01:37 PM
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Warrens medicare flop was bad, but in the last debate she just wrote off economists as 'wrong'. Liberals generally want a politician who lives in reality, so that probably hurt her even more.

I'm wondering if she will drop out after NH, and if so where her voters will go.
Exactly, Liberals. The people who donít live in reality and think theyíll just take all the money from Bezos and Zuckerberg to pay for M4A and stop climate change are already with Bernie. I donít even consider them liberals, theyíre dreamers.

Plus, Warren has a bit of a problem defining herself and I cringe when she tries to get folksy. We all know that Bernie is the passionate fire breather whoís be the most popular social science professor at college. Peteís the nerd whoís the smartest kid in the class and Biden is Uncle Joe.
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Old 01-05-2020, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
Warrens medicare flop was bad, but in the last debate she just wrote off economists as 'wrong'. Liberals generally want a politician who lives in reality, so that probably hurt her even more.

I'm wondering if she will drop out after NH, and if so where her voters will go.
Warren's critical was being the purist candidate. She could have established her own lane as an almost purist instead.
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Old 01-05-2020, 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
Hereís a thread to discuss post holiday polls leading up to Iowa.
First up is a CBS/YouGov poll:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-...-tracker-poll/

Bernie/Biden/Buttigieg all tied at 23% and Warren in a poor 4th with 16% and Klobuchar at 7%.

First thing to note is everyone else is below 3%. Barring a miracle, Yang and Steyer ainít making the next debate and theyíre done. Itís also time for Booker to close up shop.

This is just awful for Warren, it really looks like the M4A flip flop hurt her and spending all of December ranting about wine caves may not have been what the voters want to here.

For New Hampshire itís Bernie at 27%, Biden 25%, Warren at 18%, Pete at 13%, and Klobuchar 7%. Not much of a neighbor state bump for Warren in NH. A 4th place and a 3rd place for Warren doesnít give her much of a path going forward with Biden likely to steamroll SC.

Iím definitely eager for the next Ann Selzer poll of Iowa to see how well they correlate.
I will say this: the recent developments in Iran could end up benefiting Bernie Sanders the most. I was thinking that we had moved past the point at which Sanders could pick apart a moderate establishment candidate for using "bad judgment" in foreign policy, but the Iran debacle could allow Bernie to revisit Biden's vote in 2003 and his hawkish foreign policy.

I am also beginning to get the sense -- and it may pass, lol -- that the events of the next 6-10 months are going to be explosive and highly polarizing. I don't know if a moderate will be able to survive. And God help the Democrats (and us all) if we get to the convention without a clear winner.
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Old 01-05-2020, 03:35 PM
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Steyer has the money to stay in as long as he wants regardless of polls or debates, same for Bloomberg.

Yang will probably stay in for Iowa and NH and maybe SC and Nevada if he does well in IA or NH.
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Old 01-05-2020, 05:13 PM
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Yang will probably stay in for Iowa and NH and maybe SC and Nevada if he does well in IA or NH.
15% threshold is likely to shut him out. Iowa is weird though so it may look like he won delegates on Feb 3, but delegates aren't actually pledged until the state Democratic party convention on June 13. He has almost no hope of delegates from NH.

e.g. 2012 Republican Iowa Caucus

In January CNN projected:
Rick Santorum - 7 del
Mitt Romney - 7 del
Ron Paul - 7 del
Newt Gingrich - 2 del
Unprojected - 5 del

Final results in June:
Ron Paul - 22 del
Mitt Romney - 6 del
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Old 01-05-2020, 05:31 PM
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Exactly, Liberals. The people who don’t live in reality and think they’ll just take all the money from Bezos and Zuckerberg to pay for M4A and stop climate change are already with Bernie. I don’t even consider them liberals, they’re dreamers.

Plus, Warren has a bit of a problem defining herself and I cringe when she tries to get folksy. We all know that Bernie is the passionate fire breather who’s be the most popular social science professor at college. Pete’s the nerd who’s the smartest kid in the class and Biden is Uncle Joe.
Thats very cute that your interest in politicians is how folksy and relate-able they are rather than their policy agenda. But liberals are the most educated political demographic out there, and tend to believe in science. Also writing off economists as 'wrong' may work on Trumps base but its not going to work on the democratic base. So I think that will hurt Warren too.

While most of Sanders and Warrens policies will never happen, not even with a democratic congress the payments for plans have been outlined.

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/downl...ll?inline=file

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/ame...deal-heres-how
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Last edited by Wesley Clark; 01-05-2020 at 05:32 PM.
  #9  
Old 01-05-2020, 06:12 PM
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15% threshold is likely to shut him out. Iowa is weird though so it may look like he won delegates on Feb 3, but delegates aren't actually pledged until the state Democratic party convention on June 13. He has almost no hope of delegates from NH.

e.g. 2012 Republican Iowa Caucus

In January CNN projected:
Rick Santorum - 7 del
Mitt Romney - 7 del
Ron Paul - 7 del
Newt Gingrich - 2 del
Unprojected - 5 del

Final results in June:
Ron Paul - 22 del
Mitt Romney - 6 del
That's because the Ron Paul fanatics all gave long speeches about Paul. That went on so long many people got mad and went home and that's why Paul got the most votes. The Paul nutjobs pulled that same stunt in other caucus states.
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Old 01-05-2020, 07:16 PM
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That's because the Ron Paul fanatics all gave long speeches about Paul. That went on so long many people got mad and went home and that's why Paul got the most votes. The Paul nutjobs pulled that same stunt in other caucus states.
Yang Gang!
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Old 01-05-2020, 07:31 PM
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That's because the Ron Paul fanatics all gave long speeches about Paul. That went on so long many people got mad and went home and that's why Paul got the most votes. The Paul nutjobs pulled that same stunt in other caucus states.
IIRC, thatís how the Paul fanatics temporarily took control over some state parties. Theyíd hold party office votes after the everyone else had left.
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Old 01-05-2020, 07:39 PM
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Thats very cute that your interest in politicians is how folksy and relate-able they are rather than their policy agenda. But liberals are the most educated political demographic out there, and tend to believe in science. Also writing off economists as 'wrong' may work on Trumps base but its not going to work on the democratic base. So I think that will hurt Warren too.

While most of Sanders and Warrens policies will never happen, not even with a democratic congress the payments for plans have been outlined.

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/downl...ll?inline=file

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/ame...deal-heres-how
I have a degree in economics so I do care about the policy wonk side of candidates. But, Iím also aware that many people vote strictly on how they feel, policies be damned. If theyíre mad as hell and not going to take it anymore, then a Bernie would appeal. I think a lot of the extreme vitriol toward Pete was the jealousy over the smartest kid in the class.
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Old 01-07-2020, 05:30 PM
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Warrens medicare flop was bad, but in the last debate she just wrote off economists as 'wrong'. Liberals generally want a politician who lives in reality, so that probably hurt her even more.

I'm wondering if she will drop out after NH, and if so where her voters will go.
Not sure what the context there was, but of course economists are wrong. Economists fundamentally disagree with each other all the time, and they can't all be right. This isn't some hard science where all well-informed people agree about the basic principles.
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Old 01-07-2020, 06:10 PM
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Warrens medicare flop was bad, but in the last debate she just wrote off economists as 'wrong'. Liberals generally want a politician who lives in reality, so that probably hurt her even more.

I'm wondering if she will drop out after NH, and if so where her voters will go.
My hope is that she does. Polls suggest most of her voters will go to Bernie, which could move him ahead of Biden nationally.
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Old 01-07-2020, 06:16 PM
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Current 538 polling averages:

National: Biden 28, Sanders 18, Warren 15, Buttigieg 7, Bloomberg 6
Iowa: Biden 22, Sanders 20, Buttigieg 19, Warren 14, Klobuchar 7
NH: Biden 21, Sanders 21, Warren 15, Buttigieg 13, Klobuchar 5

(only candidates with at least 5%)
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Old 01-07-2020, 06:33 PM
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My hope is that she does. Polls suggest most of her voters will go to Bernie, which could move him ahead of Biden nationally.
I guess you're looking at second choice polls? Because since Warren has dropped 8 points the last couple months, Bernie barely up 3 in that time.

Last edited by CarnalK; 01-07-2020 at 06:33 PM.
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Old 01-07-2020, 06:39 PM
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Actually I'm citing my vague memory of some second choice polls I saw a while back. Anyone have a link to some recent ones?
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Old 01-07-2020, 06:42 PM
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Yeah, just looking at the graph lines, Warren's decline seems to have coincided with Buttigieg's rise, so he's presumably getting many of her voters. Not really sure how that thought process works, tbh.

My hope/WAG is that Warren's core supporters are more ideologically driven than the ones who are currently deserting her, so they would be more likely to go to Bernie. But I have no data to support that.
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Old 01-07-2020, 06:51 PM
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Although actually, since Peak Warren in mid-October, here's how the averages have moved:

Bloomberg +5
Sanders +3
Buttigieg +2
Klobuchar +2
Biden +1
Warren -8

So other than Bloomberg, who of course wasn't running in October, Sanders does seem to have profited the most from (or at least coincident with) Warren's decline.
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Old 01-07-2020, 06:54 PM
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Of course, it's also possible that many of Warren's core supporters are ideological progressives who were supporting her precisely because they can't stand Bernie, so...
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Old 01-07-2020, 07:56 PM
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Morning Consult seems to be the main one keeping on top of second choices.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Currently Warren's second choice is Bernie @ 33%, Biden @ 24%, Buttigieg@12%. My laugh of the day: Sanders' top second choices are Warren @32%, Biden @24% and frigging Yang @9%.

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  #22  
Old 01-08-2020, 12:27 PM
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Warrens medicare flop was bad, but in the last debate she just wrote off economists as 'wrong'. Liberals generally want a politician who lives in reality, so that probably hurt her even more.
She wrote off a couple of particular economists as wrong, not the entire freakin' discipline.

And their conclusion was that the wealth tax would still raise most of what Warren said it would, just not all of what Warren said it would.

And they may well have been wrong on that because, according to what I've read, they ignored parts of Warren's plan that are aimed at reducing the ability of rich people to shift money around to avoid taxes.

Last edited by RTFirefly; 01-08-2020 at 12:28 PM. Reason: Formatting
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:39 PM
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Exactly, Liberals. The people who donít live in reality and think theyíll just take all the money from Bezos and Zuckerberg to pay for M4A and stop climate change are already with Bernie. I donít even consider them liberals, theyíre dreamers.
The wealth of the world's 500 wealthiest people increased by $1.2 trillion last year.

Not 'they're worth $1.2T.' No, that's the one-year increase in their net worth.

What you're saying was very true 40 years ago, when the wealth distribution in our society wasn't nearly so lopsided. If you wanted government to pay for something, you had to tax the middle class because there wasn't an insanely wealthy overclass.

That was then, and this is now. Now there really IS an insanely wealthy overclass, and yes, you CAN tax them enough to pay for trillions of dollars of goodies.

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Plus, Warren has a bit of a problem defining herself and I cringe when she tries to get folksy.
I can understand that it upsets you that she frequently talks like she's from Oklahoma or something. She's got a lot of nerve, talking like she's from somewhere like that, just because she happens to be from there.
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:47 PM
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I think a lot of the extreme vitriol toward Pete was the jealousy over the smartest kid in the class.
Nah, it's for being Joe Lieberman reconstituted in a younger man's body. It's like 2004 all over again, with Dem moderates pointing all their guns leftward again.

And in Buttigieg's case, he's attacking Warren and Bernie for the same policy he supported a year ago. It's sweet how he's not going to upset any rich people's applecarts; I'm sure his first invite to a wine cave won't be his last.
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Old 01-08-2020, 01:24 PM
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New Monmouth poll for NH out tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/monmouthpoll/sta...749522432?s=21
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Old 01-08-2020, 01:45 PM
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Nah, it's for being Joe Lieberman reconstituted in a younger man's body. It's like 2004 all over again, with Dem moderates pointing all their guns leftward again.

And in Buttigieg's case, he's attacking Warren and Bernie for the same policy he supported a year ago. It's sweet how he's not going to upset any rich people's applecarts; I'm sure his first invite to a wine cave won't be his last.
Itís too bad I donít live in Virginia
https://twitter.com/vaforpete/status...561362946?s=21
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Old 01-08-2020, 02:08 PM
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Itís too bad I donít live in Virginia
https://twitter.com/vaforpete/status...561362946?s=21
I'm torn. GD is the forum for witnessing, but maybe posts like this should be in MPSIMS or CS because they're more the place for fanboyism.
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Old 01-09-2020, 10:25 AM
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Nah, it's for being Joe Lieberman reconstituted in a younger man's body. It's like 2004 all over again, with Dem moderates pointing all their guns leftward again.
.
Was that off the cuff or has the Warren camp come up with some bullet points on that comparison?
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Old 01-09-2020, 11:06 AM
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Monmouth NH poll just released with Pete on top
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-ins...oll_nh_010920/

Buttigieg 20%
Biden 19%
Sanders 18%
Warren 15%
Klobuchar 6%

So, almost identical to the CBS/YouGov poll from a few days ago. Basically a three way tie at the top and the Warren campaign struggling.

Steyer at 4% and Yang at 3% almost guarantees that they’re not making the debate stage, deadline is tomorrow.

DMR poll rumored for Saturday night would be too late.
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Old 01-09-2020, 11:50 AM
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Afaik, to qualify for the debates with a state poll, the threshold is actually 7%. How the heck did Klobuchar qualify?
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Old 01-09-2020, 11:54 AM
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Afaik, to qualify for the debates with a state poll, the threshold is actually 7%. How the heck did Klobuchar qualify?
Klobuchar qualified easily.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/fivet...t-make-it/amp/
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Old 01-09-2020, 12:02 PM
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You mean barely, she barely qualified. She hasn't got 5% in a national poll for a while, somehow scraped together 4 of them.

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Old 01-09-2020, 12:10 PM
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Update: the DMR poll will be released tomorrow at 5 pm CST.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...on/4418151002/
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Old 01-09-2020, 12:27 PM
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You mean barely, she barely qualified. She hasn't got 5% in a national poll for a while, somehow scraped together 4 of them.
I should have clarified, she wasnít sweating it like Yang and Steyer are.
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Old 01-09-2020, 12:41 PM
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Monmouth NH poll just released with Pete on top
No, that's not true. Monmouth's headline: "Four-Way Fight in Dem Primary."

They say it that way because the support levels of the top four candidates are statistically indistinguishable from one another.

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Old 01-09-2020, 01:08 PM
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No, that's not true. Monmouth's headline: "Four-Way Fight in Dem Primary."

They say it that way because the support levels of the top four candidates are statistically indistinguishable from one another.
Pete is on top and Warren is 4th in that poll. Itís different from the YouGov poll with the 3 way tie at the top.

The margin of error is 4.9% percentage points.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:17 PM
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Nate Silver's website has a brand new Primary model up!

Really cool stuff:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/
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Old 01-09-2020, 02:51 PM
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Nate Silver's website has a brand new Primary model up!
I was just looking at that.

538 win probabilities are way different than the implied probabilities derived from PredictIt markets for several primary states.

For example, CO primary...
538 Bernie win ~ 30%
PredictIt Bernie win ~ 50%

Looks like there's money to be made.
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Old 01-09-2020, 03:05 PM
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I was just looking at that.

538 win probabilities are way different than the implied probabilities derived from PredictIt markets for several primary states.

For example, CO primary...
538 Bernie win ~ 30%
PredictIt Bernie win ~ 50%

Looks like there's money to be made.
Exactly. Clinton basically sat some primaries and caucuses out. Looking at 2016 results and thinking Bernie has a lock on Colorado is a foolish bet.
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Old 01-09-2020, 03:12 PM
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Pete is on top and Warren is 4th
among the 404 respondents to
Quote:
that poll.
FTFY.
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The margin of error
of each estimate
Quote:
is 4.9% percentage points.
It's worth noting that, unless two estimates are strongly positively correlated (the reverse would be more likely, of course), the MOE of a difference is noticeably larger than the MOE of either estimate, as you might expect.

With the same MOE and zero correlation, you can take the MOE of the estimates and multiply by the square root of 2 to get the MOE of a difference. See pp. G-14 through G-16 here, from formula (3) on p.G-14 to Example 5 on G-16.

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Old 01-10-2020, 11:25 AM
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Two polls from Fox News released and they qualify Steyer for the debate stage.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...nuary-5-8-2020

Biden: 36%
Steyer: 15%
Sanders: 14%
Warren: 10%
Buttigieg: 4%
Klobuchar:1%

I spent ten days in SC around Thanksgiving. Non stop Steyer ads and I mean non stop. Biden is going to steamroll SC and being a red state in the general election, itíll be a triage state for most of the other campaigns. Spending in SC was what killed the Harris campaign.

Nevada:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...-8-2020-nevada

Biden: 23%
Sanders: 17%
Steyer: 12%
Warren: 12%
Buttigieg: 6%
Klobuchar: 2%

No idea what to think about Nevada, second most difficult state to poll after Alaska. Itíll come down to who Harry Reid supports behind the scenes, the unions, and the results of IA and NH.
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Old 01-10-2020, 12:24 PM
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I spent ten days in SC around Thanksgiving. Non stop Steyer ads and I mean non stop.
According to this panelist on The Hill, Steyer spent more money in ads in Reno and Las Vegas than Bernie Sanders did across the entire country. He outspent the next closest candidate in SC by tenfold. That may have affected the polling.

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Old 01-10-2020, 09:00 PM
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Update: the DMR poll will be released tomorrow at 5 pm CST.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...on/4418151002/
And...?

Oh yeah, someone's standing in the DMR poll changed by 9 percentage points since the previous DMR poll, unquestionably outside the margin of error.

With three weeks to go, and only 40% of likely IA Dem caucusgoers having made up their minds for sure, it's anyone's race.
  #44  
Old 01-27-2020, 11:14 AM
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Just because I'm a wicked guy, the new WaPo poll has Buttigieg down to 5% nationwide among registered voters, and 4% among likely Dem primary voters.
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Old 01-27-2020, 11:24 AM
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ABC News/WaPo polling: Trump has cut Biden's lead to a mere 4 percent among registered voters. Three months ago, Biden was leading Trump by 17 percent.
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Old 01-27-2020, 12:05 PM
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Though the same poll has similar worrying news for Sanders. Leading Trump by 17% and now only leading Trump by 2% (less than Biden's lead).
  #47  
Old 01-27-2020, 12:46 PM
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You know how you are constantly reminded that head to head polls over a year before the election are useless? Probably not, I guess.
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Old 01-27-2020, 01:00 PM
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Not getting that CarnalK. The previous head to heads more than year were useless and failed to even be predictive of now. Now, less than 10 away, is still worth little but is less worthless.
  #49  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Just because I'm a wicked guy, the new WaPo poll has Buttigieg down to 5% nationwide among registered voters, and 4% among likely Dem primary voters.
That is true and feel free to gloat.

I admit I hate national polls and particularly in this election cycle where weíve got the billionaires bombarding the airwaves nationwide and Bloomberg hasnít even been on a debate stage.

New and last DMR poll on Saturday. And, finally we are going to get some actual votes so I think the national polls will look different in a couple of weeks.

Buttigieg and Warren both need a first or a very strong second in IA and NH to break out finally. A weak 4th pretty much would doom either of them. It sucks for Warren that NH is her backyard but also Bernieís so itíll be more difficult to recover from a weak IA 4th.

Gotta admit Iím surprised how strong Biden and Bernie have remained. I thought Bidenís support was a mile wide and an inch deep. But, an unenthusiastic blah vote for Biden counts as much as a vote from someone who has 14,000 tweets about how great Pete is.

I knew Bernie had a strong base of support but I thought the heart attack and Warren would eat into it, especially among those who liked Sandersí idea but got a bit turned off by Bernie Bro tactics and sheer stubbornness. I can tell you nothing about Iowa except that Bernie voters will turn out regardless of the weather or any super bowl hangovers on Monday.
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  #50  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:21 PM
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Yes, but they are comparing them as if something big has happened. "3 months ago Biden led by 17!" Just seems to me the regular tightening of the numbers as people see likely scenarios and also stop pretending they're less partisan than they are. Lol.

But I guess I was snippier than I needed to be.

Last edited by CarnalK; 01-27-2020 at 01:22 PM.
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