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  #51  
Old 01-27-2020, 02:28 PM
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Yes, but they are comparing them as if something big has happened. "3 months ago Biden led by 17!" Just seems to me the regular tightening of the numbers as people see likely scenarios and also stop pretending they're less partisan than they are. Lol.

But I guess I was snippier than I needed to be.
Iím not going to dig too deep into polls 10 months out, but I wouldnít be surprised if the impeachment hearings, House debate, and senate trial is helping to bring the R leaning base back home and away from the flirting with a Biden type Democrat.
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  #52  
Old 01-27-2020, 02:31 PM
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And that +17 was the most positive Biden result since well before the race even started. The polls have bounced around a bit, but it's been between Biden +10 and even, with an average of around +5.

You could just as easily look at the CNN Poll and say that it's gone from Biden +5 to Biden +9 in just a month! Biden is surging!
  #53  
Old 01-27-2020, 03:34 PM
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Buttigieg and Warren both need a first or a very strong second in IA and NH to break out finally. A weak 4th pretty much would doom either of them. It sucks for Warren that NH is her backyard but also Bernieís so itíll be more difficult to recover from a weak IA 4th.
I don't think there's really any hope for either Buttigieg or Warren at this point. Particularly with Buttigieg, once you get past New Hampshire, it's not looking good in any way, shape, or form. He has clearly impressed a cross section of white voters in very white states, but he's either too much of an unknown or his being gay is a deal-breaker.

In Warren's case, I think she tried to be a more palatable form of Bernie Sanders and it just didn't work. Her poll numbers have dipped and I don't see them recovering.

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Gotta admit Iím surprised how strong Biden and Bernie have remained. I thought Bidenís support was a mile wide and an inch deep. But, an unenthusiastic blah vote for Biden counts as much as a vote from someone who has 14,000 tweets about how great Pete is.

I knew Bernie had a strong base of support but I thought the heart attack and Warren would eat into it, especially among those who liked Sandersí idea but got a bit turned off by Bernie Bro tactics and sheer stubbornness. I can tell you nothing about Iowa except that Bernie voters will turn out regardless of the weather or any super bowl hangovers on Monday.
I remember when I started the "power rankings" thread over the summer thinking that Bernie's schtick had gotten old, but it hasn't. This past weekend was the first weekend I've really had a chance to sit down and look at numbers, and while Biden is still a clear front-runner, this is the first time I've thought that Bernie has a legitimate path to the nomination. Bernie Sanders could beat Joe Biden, especially if he hammers him in both IA and NH. He'll lose in SC, but he could recover from that, win in Nevada, and have real momentum going into Super Tuesday.
  #54  
Old 01-27-2020, 03:53 PM
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In Warren's case, I think she tried to be a more palatable form of Bernie Sanders and it just didn't work. Her poll numbers have dipped and I don't see them recovering.
I think it's 'win Iowa or bust' for her. And that just keeps her candidacy viable; it wouldn't make her the front runner.

What's weird is what knocked her down was the attack on her support of M4A. But Bernie's also for M4A. Since those attacks came from the 'moderate' wing of the party, they kinda blew it, considering they'd be even more unhappy with Bernie as the nominee than Warren.
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He'll lose in SC, but he could recover from that, win in Nevada, and have real momentum going into Super Tuesday.
Minor nitpick: you can't recover from SC by winning NV because NV comes before SC.

I'm thinking that Warren would make a great Treasury Secretary in a Sanders Administration.
  #55  
Old 01-27-2020, 04:45 PM
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I don't think there's really any hope for either Buttigieg or Warren at this point. Particularly with Buttigieg, once you get past New Hampshire, it's not looking good in any way, shape, or form. He has clearly impressed a cross section of white voters in very white states, but he's either too much of an unknown or his being gay is a deal-breaker.

In Warren's case, I think she tried to be a more palatable form of Bernie Sanders and it just didn't work. Her poll numbers have dipped and I don't see them recovering.



I remember when I started the "power rankings" thread over the summer thinking that Bernie's schtick had gotten old, but it hasn't. This past weekend was the first weekend I've really had a chance to sit down and look at numbers, and while Biden is still a clear front-runner, this is the first time I've thought that Bernie has a legitimate path to the nomination. Bernie Sanders could beat Joe Biden, especially if he hammers him in both IA and NH. He'll lose in SC, but he could recover from that, win in Nevada, and have real momentum going into Super Tuesday.
Iím a Pete supporter. I do see heís got a very impressive ground game in Iowa. Yes, itís nice to have nice crowds at the rallies but getting peopleís butts to the caucus is how you win and at least Peteís team has really been focusing on that. Sanders is unique: his voters would charge out of WW I trenches to vote for him. All the other candidates need to work GOTV non stop now.

Warren turned into John Kerry with the M4A flip flop and the too cute dancing around how to pay for it and tax rates questions in the early debates. But, she has picked up the DMR endorsement which isnít a small thing in IA. Thereís still a lot of undecideds. The question is how many show up to caucus on a cold night on a Monday.
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  #56  
Old 01-27-2020, 04:49 PM
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I think it's 'win Iowa or bust' for her. And that just keeps her candidacy viable; it wouldn't make her the front runner.

What's weird is what knocked her down was the attack on her support of M4A. But Bernie's also for M4A. Since those attacks came from the 'moderate' wing of the party, they kinda blew it, considering they'd be even more unhappy with Bernie as the nominee than Warren. Minor nitpick: you can't recover from SC by winning NV because NV comes before SC.

I'm thinking that Warren would make a great Treasury Secretary in a Sanders Administration.
While I certainly donít see a Sanders administration, thereís no way Warren goes into the cabinet in any administration. The Senate will be too close and everyone remembers what happened with Scott Brown in 2010. Plus, I actually think Warren enjoys being a Senator. She reminds me a lot of John McCain in that regard.
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  #57  
Old 01-27-2020, 08:47 PM
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I think it's 'win Iowa or bust' for her. And that just keeps her candidacy viable; it wouldn't make her the front runner.
Well, maybe Warren, Pete, and Sanders embarrass Biden - a long shot, I reckon.

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What's weird is what knocked her down was the attack on her support of M4A. But Bernie's also for M4A. Since those attacks came from the 'moderate' wing of the party, they kinda blew it, considering they'd be even more unhappy with Bernie as the nominee than Warren.
As we discussed elsewhere, the positioning is the problem. When she entered the race, she probably thought that people would get tired of Sanders' broken record, but that hasn't been the case. Say what one will, but Sanders has really succeeded in developing a grassroots organization and that has been the result of staying committed to the message. He won the authenticity battle with Warren. Warren didn't flinch much and didn't really deviate far from who she was, but when people challenged her on m4a, she made the same mistake that she made with the Pocahontas controversy: people dared her to give a descriptive answer to their questions, and she gave it to them. Bernie just repeats the same old shit over and over again and never actually really explains how he's going to hang the moon - but he keeps promising people he'll hang it and they believe him.

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Minor nitpick: you can't recover from SC by winning NV because NV comes before SC
Major nitpick and so noted. Yeah for some reason I had my primaries mixed. That obviously hurts Biden and helps Sanders. Biden could be looking at 3 losses heading into SC, and his support could definitely dip there. That being said, Iowa and SC are historically better predictors of long-term success than NH and Nevada.
  #58  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:54 PM
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Warren may leave the senate if they think a solid Dem can win her seat. Mass is no longer a lock for the Dems like it was so they need a top notch candidate
  #59  
Old 02-01-2020, 09:31 PM
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I canít bump this thread because of the DMR poll. The release has been canceled.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...ns/4637168002/

This election couldnít get any weirder.
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  #60  
Old 02-01-2020, 09:34 PM
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Warren may leave the senate if they think a solid Dem can win her seat. Mass is no longer a lock for the Dems like it was so they need a top notch candidate
Huh? There is a chance that Warren could face a primary challenge in 2024 and she may also decide to not seek reelection.

But, no Republican is winning that seat. Scott Brown was a unique special election fluke in the middle of a massive recession and his Democratic opponent thought it more important to take a Caribbean vacation rather than campaign.
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  #61  
Old 02-01-2020, 10:26 PM
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I canít bump this thread because of the DMR poll. The release has been canceled.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...ns/4637168002/

This election couldnít get any weirder.
Just adding a quote as to why the release of the poll was cancelled.

Quote:
Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa Poll. Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll. It appears a candidateís name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.

While this appears to be isolated to one surveyor, we cannot confirm that with certainty. Therefore, the partners made the difficult decision to not to move forward with releasing the Iowa Poll.
According to a NYT article that is paywalled so I can't see it, the people from the Pete Buttigieg campaign complained when his name was left off the survey by at least one interviewer.

Here's a quote that's supposedly from the NYT article taken from a Yang sub thread:

Quote:
CNN abruptly canceled a special Saturday night broadcast of the results of a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowa caucusgoers, according to a network official, after complaints from Pete Buttigiegís campaign that his name was not included in at least one of their telephone calls for its poll this week.
  #62  
Old 02-02-2020, 12:08 AM
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All sorts of rumors about why the poll was tossed out. My WAG and it’s just a WAG is deliberate sabotage by one of the questioners. Remember, it’s not Ann herself actually doing the polling. Now, that doesn’t mean that someone necessarily tried to fix the poll in favor of their preferred candidate, it can also mean someone that just didn’t give a damn and fudged their answers.

Ann Selzer is the gold name in polling and she isn’t going to risk her name over a flawed poll. Every poll is going to have a questioner flub something on a question and that wouldn’t be the reason to throw out an entire poll.
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Last edited by dalej42; 02-02-2020 at 12:10 AM.
  #63  
Old 02-02-2020, 04:29 PM
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CBS/YouGov poll for Iowa, basically the same news as always

Bernie and Biden tied at 25%
Pete at 21%
Warren 16%
Klobuchar 5%

Weather for Iowa is unusually warm today, 52 degrees F in Des Moines, typical winter tomorrow with a high of 34 F. So, no weather events to affect turnout or affect last minute canvassing.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/electio...ay-2020-02-02/
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Last edited by dalej42; 02-02-2020 at 04:29 PM.
  #64  
Old 02-03-2020, 08:37 AM
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All sorts of rumors about why the poll was tossed out. My WAG and itís just a WAG is deliberate sabotage by one of the questioners. Remember, itís not Ann herself actually doing the polling. Now, that doesnít mean that someone necessarily tried to fix the poll in favor of their preferred candidate, it can also mean someone that just didnít give a damn and fudged their answers.

Ann Selzer is the gold name in polling and she isnít going to risk her name over a flawed poll. Every poll is going to have a questioner flub something on a question and that wouldnít be the reason to throw out an entire poll.
Yeah, I'm wondering about this too.

The possibility that they'd have just left his name off the electronic questionnaire seems improbable. You'd have multiple sets of eyeballs review the questions, and you'd probably test it out in the office just to make sure the software didn't have any glitches.

Also hard to believe one interviewer would choose to leave his name off. First, they've got the unweighted results of the poll, and I'll bet there's an interviewer code in the paradata or metadata or whatever the hell it's called. If one interviewer showed a big zero for one of the leading candidates, that would stick out like a sore thumb.

I don't know how many interviewers they have, but if each interviewer yields only a handful of responses (which would be my expectation: that it takes a shitload of calls per completed interview), then unless the demographics of that interviewer's responders are wildly unrepresentative, you just throw his/her interviews out, and take care of it in the weighting.

So I've got a certain amount of professional curiosity about this, that goes beyond any interest in what the poll's results might have been. I'm hoping there's a presentation on this at the Joint Statistical Meetings this summer; there's certainly the material for one, no matter what went wrong.
  #65  
Old 02-05-2020, 06:00 PM
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Speaking of polls - a January 2020 Gallup poll indicated that 36% of Americans are now satisfied with the state of "race relations" today, as opposed to just 22% back in January 2017. How can people think race relations have improved during these three years?
  #66  
Old 02-05-2020, 06:15 PM
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Speaking of polls - a January 2020 Gallup poll indicated that 36% of Americans are now satisfied with the state of "race relations" today, as opposed to just 22% back in January 2017. How can people think race relations have improved during these three years?
36% is also about the same number as strong Trump supporters. Maybe it's not a coincidence -- perhaps everyone else believes that they've gotten worse, and only strong Trump supporters say they've gotten better.
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