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  #101  
Old 01-25-2020, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Qadgop the Mercotan View Post
And some of the sickest folks may run no fevers at all
May I ask, do you own/use a thermometer when you are ill?
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Old 01-25-2020, 12:08 PM
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Another endorsement of KarlGauss' post.

Public health experts are very correct to consider worst case possibilities and to advise reasonable precautions. But I look at the current numbers and see them as very reassuring, not as reason to "panic".

Population of Wuhan? Over 11 million living fairly densely.

Diagnosed cases? Under 1400.

Deaths? A few dozen, mostly in higher risk individuals.

If this was something both highly contagious and of high morbidity and mortality then in a place like Wuhan we'd be seeing much more than that by now.

My bet is that it is of moderate contagiousness and fairly low morbidity and mortality with the diagnosed number of cases being a small fraction of the total number out there, most being of cold symptoms that never come to any medical attention let alone to diagnostic testing. If so the next month or so will see the numbers of diagnosed cases increasing and the morbidity and mortality rates decreasing, even without any mutations of the virus to less virulence.

Still that is the reasonable bet and is not known.

Containing it as best as is possible is the prudent action and good practice of systems for other future potential threats. "Panic"? I don't think so.


FWIW I do not personally own a thermometer. As a physician (other than for the babies under 2 months) I care much less about the exact number on a thermometer than how an individual is feeling and acting, and the pattern of the illness. As a society we are often excessively feverphobic.
  #103  
Old 01-25-2020, 12:09 PM
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May I ask, do you own/use a thermometer when you are ill?
For sure I do. Always good to have more relevant data. High fevers are dangerous in and of themselves, in addition to possibly indicating which diagnoses are more or less likely. But it takes training and experience to make those judgements
  #104  
Old 01-25-2020, 12:20 PM
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Every time viruses get mentioned, someone has to bring up antibiotics, someone else then has to recite the "overuse/ineffective" speech yet again ... I guess I don't understand how that hasn't sunk in more thoroughly.

I mean, the majority of people are familiar with "Look both ways before you cross the street" and "Call 911 in emergencies." I didn't think this was more complicated, but O.P. isn't the first person I've heard THIS WEEK talking about antibiotics as a magic cure-all that you can take - and critically, STOP taking - whenever you feel like it...
I've worked with a few Mexican-Americans who swore by the antibiotics they bought at a Mexican grocery store.

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And now, the snake flu.
I've also heard of bats as food being a possible source of both the Chinese coronavirus and Ebola.

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Originally Posted by nearwildheaven View Post
During the 2014-15 Ebola outbreak, one of my Facebook/IRL friends posted that her then-15-year-old daughter had come to her with tears in her eyes and said, "Mom, I'm scared."

"Of what, honey?"

"I'm afraid we're all going to die from Ebola."

She flipped her laptop open and showed her daughter some stories which explained that it was not a threat to the overwhelming majority of people in the U.S., and that this had turned into a long conversation about AIDS, a disease that she herself first heard of at age 15, in the early 1980s, and that people were MUCH more frightened of AIDS, and rightfully so because we knew so little about it.

Further research indicated that it was not easily transmitted, and also not as new a disease as most people thought. My response to that post was "Give your daughter a great big hug for me, and tell her that we don't have to worry about Ebola in this country."

I personally believe that many of the Zika-exposed babies with microcephaly also had pesticide and other chemical exposures in utero, which doesn't make their fate any less tragic.

During the SARS outbreak, I was working at the big hospital, and I remember having a conversation, along with another pharmacist, with a technician who asked if we thought SARS would be an issue in our region. We explained that in the area where SARS originated, people live much more closely with their livestock than farmers do here, and are much more likely to do their own butchering, in addition to the big open-air markets you see on TV and You Tube.

(You Tube didn't exist at that time, but TV certainly did.)
This morning I was tutoring a middle school student at the Company facility. My other 2 students for the hour were absent, one calling in sick and the other a no-call-no-show. The director came to give me a heads up, and we agreed that there are many people sick right now (many students at my school have gone home sick this week). The student I was working with today seemed honestly scared when he asked me if everyone had the flu or that disease that comes from Japan. Straightened which nation out first, but them reassured him that so far the disease was not here in our city, and people here just have the usual seasonal colds and viruses. I told him to wash his hand often and use hand sanitizer at school, and we should be fine.

So sad that the media has to needlessly scare kids when hyping a news story.

Loach, I am with you on the Mad Cow thing. Is 35 years long enough for JK disease to incubate?
  #105  
Old 01-25-2020, 12:21 PM
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... who is helped by seeking medical care for common viral disease?
I don't mean to make Qagdop blanche, but:

Placebos frequently work even when the patient knows they're being given a placebo.

Going a little further than the article linked, "placebo" doesn't necessarily mean "an inert pill" or any kind of medication at all. Just going to the doctor and being tended to for a bit seems to help a lot of people. Sure, it's all in our heads -- but if it works, it works.

On the non-placebo side of things ... when a viral infection causes inflammation in the respiratory system, an injection of prednisone does largely alleviate that inflammation.

Until my early 30s, I used to never go to a doctor for common colds, the "flu" (severe upper respiratory stuff), etc. Then I started noticing it was taking me several weeks at a time to shake these illnesses instead of a few days or a week. These days, I go to the local urgent care, get my prednisone and Z-pack (bad overprescription!), and I'm back to normal within a week or so -- sometimes quicker. Yeah ... it's all anecotes and placebo effect -- but I don't care. I feel better in the end. Mind over matter.
  #106  
Old 01-25-2020, 12:48 PM
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Using antibiotics as placebos is a practice that leads to drug resistance and increased mortality rates. Too many docs are still handing out antibiotics for viral infections in low risk individuals. Pleasing the patient still too often overrides proper health care.
  #107  
Old 01-25-2020, 01:02 PM
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Last night, just coincidentally, I happened to be talking to a guy I know who's an epidemiologist at the Royal Melbourne (which is the hospital which has just announced Australia's first case of coronavirus). This was in the context of everyone congratulating him for having an exciting new disease to study . Which congratulations he seemed quite happy to accept.

So I'm figuring if front line medical staff don't appear to be worried for the health of themselves, their spouses and their teenage daughters, I'm going to take that as permission not to be worried myself

(Full disclosure - I already wasn't)
  #108  
Old 01-25-2020, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Qadgop the Mercotan View Post
Using antibiotics as placebos is a practice that leads to drug resistance and increased mortality rates. Too many docs are still handing out antibiotics for viral infections in low risk individuals. Pleasing the patient still too often overrides proper health care.
Sometimes I wonder if azithromycin has just been (largely) ceded to placebo use, and other antibiotics are prescribed for fighting off real, verified, "I saw them in the microscope!" bacterial infections.

For example, I have been surprised in recent years to see my wife occasionally get prescribed Cipro (ciprofloxacin) from her ENT specialist. I always remember that as the anti-anthrax drug that was in the news in the six months or so post-9/11. Based on that and my layman's understanding of anthrax's severity, I had thought Cipro was practically an antibiotic-of-last-resort -- and maybe it was at the time.

(Hmmm ... this MedPageToday opinion piece from 2018 makes me think I'm on to something )
  #109  
Old 01-25-2020, 01:39 PM
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But wouldn't your condition mirror the grade of your fever?
Not necessarily.

Human body temperature is variable anyway. If you engage in heavy exercise you might well be running a "fever" in that your body temperature is temporarily elevated, as just one example. Many people can run a 99-100 fever and not feel particularly bad.

The reason for screening travelers for body temperature is precisely that - to catch early stages of an infection before the person feels deathly ill, or to find mild cases that, while not debilitating for the infected, can nonetheless spread a disease. People with elevated temperatures need to be further screened to distinguish between those running hot due to stress, running for transport, perhaps too many layers of clothes on for the destination, and so forth.

It's a screening tool, a long with questions like "How do you feel?" and "have you been to this location in the last month?". Also observations like whether or not they're coughing or having a runny nose.

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If your thermometer is defective and reads 104F but you feel fine, you don't run to urgent care, right? Likewise, if you feel like you're going to die and the thermometer reads 100F you seek medical care.
I'm not sure you understand how and why temperature is taken, or the reliability of modern thermometers.

And, as I said, a person can be running a significant fever and still function quite well.

You can "feel fine" or only feel a little ill but still be deathly ill.

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Other than infants, I just don't see why that particular parameter is measured and then that result responded to.
Why do doctors take your pulse? Or your blood pressure? Or measure your height and weight? Or ask you how you feel? It's part of an overall picture.

Last edited by Broomstick; 01-25-2020 at 01:43 PM.
  #110  
Old 01-25-2020, 02:13 PM
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Ramen noodles!!??? Are you crazy? Those things are Asian. You're just begging to be infected by the... the... say, does this new virus have a catchy name yet? How can I panic appropriately if I don't know the correct name? Flunado! Virpocalypse! Flurus!
Personally, I like "Kung Flu". Nice ring to it.
  #111  
Old 01-25-2020, 02:20 PM
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I saw a video today of Chinese people collapsing in the street and ambulances picking them up wearing haz mat. They labeled it Chinese collapsing in the street from this new virus. I think they just put together videos of people collapsing over a several years period.
  #112  
Old 01-25-2020, 06:19 PM
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We have our first case at my hospital (and Toronto's first).

(Earlier we had been asked to refrain from 'social media' announcements of this sort. But it's now on TV for chrissakes)

Last edited by KarlGauss; 01-25-2020 at 06:20 PM.
  #113  
Old 01-25-2020, 06:44 PM
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We have our first case at my hospital (and Toronto's first).

(Earlier we had been asked to refrain from 'social media' announcements of this sort. But it's now on TV for chrissakes)
Canada's first actually.
  #114  
Old 01-25-2020, 06:48 PM
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Canada's first actually.
Are you involved at all, given your SARS experience?
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Old 01-25-2020, 07:17 PM
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Are you involved at all, given your SARS experience?
The hospital, and in fact every hospital in Canada now is hugely better prepared for something like this. So, if I take care of patients with this virus (as I expect I will), it won't be as part of an ad hoc effort like it was with SARS in 2003. Back then, we had to cobble together a team in real time after the province designated us as *the* hospital for SARS. Today, I will just be one player (thank gawd).

Last edited by KarlGauss; 01-25-2020 at 07:22 PM.
  #116  
Old 01-25-2020, 07:35 PM
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Another endorsement of KarlGauss' post.

Public health experts are very correct to consider worst case possibilities and to advise reasonable precautions. But I look at the current numbers and see them as very reassuring, not as reason to "panic".

Population of Wuhan? Over 11 million living fairly densely.

Diagnosed cases? Under 1400.

Deaths? A few dozen, mostly in higher risk individuals.

If this was something both highly contagious and of high morbidity and mortality then in a place like Wuhan we'd be seeing much more than that by now.

My bet is that it is of moderate contagiousness and fairly low morbidity and mortality with the diagnosed number of cases being a small fraction of the total number out there, most being of cold symptoms that never come to any medical attention let alone to diagnostic testing. If so the next month or so will see the numbers of diagnosed cases increasing and the morbidity and mortality rates decreasing, even without any mutations of the virus to less virulence.

Still that is the reasonable bet and is not known.

Containing it as best as is possible is the prudent action and good practice of systems for other future potential threats. "Panic"? I don't think so.


FWIW I do not personally own a thermometer. As a physician (other than for the babies under 2 months) I care much less about the exact number on a thermometer than how an individual is feeling and acting, and the pattern of the illness. As a society we are often excessively feverphobic.
I dont disagree with anything you wrote, but please everybody do not automatically believe anything the Chinese government tells us. Their political culture is very different from ours. They have a history of lying about conditions on the ground. During the Great Leap Forward, Local officials lied to Beijing about meeting food quotas. As a result, several million people starved to death. But that was 60 years ago!! True, but the same government and the same party still rule China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine
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Old 01-25-2020, 07:57 PM
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Madsircool, china's lifetime credibility score is low. That said, in the aftermath of SARS they have done a credible job. Frankly, the WHO are not complaining about a lack of transparency.

It is not the same government or party that run china today as during the great leap era. You might as well say the post ww2 era is the same government, party, economy in the US now as it was back then.

Howsabout eyes wide open but assume China and the rest of the world is in the same boat to stop this from becoming an epidemic? It is in no ones best interest to hide this.
  #118  
Old 01-25-2020, 08:07 PM
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Technically, it would be true that "normal" influenza kills - and is killing - more people in China at all times than this Wuhan coronavirus, but just gets less attention due to lower mortality rate, right?

Last edited by Velocity; 01-25-2020 at 08:08 PM.
  #119  
Old 01-25-2020, 09:30 PM
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That, and the flu has been around forever and people are familiar with it and what it does. MOST people will recover just fine, we have a good idea who the high risk groups are, there's a vaccine that, even if not perfect, is helpful....

Wuhan corona virus is new, for most it's an unknown, people are not familiar with what it does...

Given time this new virus will become an "old virus" and will not be so alarming. Right now, though, new is also mysterious.
  #120  
Old 01-26-2020, 12:38 AM
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That, and the flu has been around forever and people are familiar with it and what it does. MOST people will recover just fine, we have a good idea who the high risk groups are, there's a vaccine that, even if not perfect, is helpful....

Wuhan corona virus is new, for most it's an unknown, people are not familiar with what it does...

Given time this new virus will become an "old virus" and will not be so alarming. Right now, though, new is also mysterious.
Or it could become more serious.
IANAVirologist, but AIUI, as it's a virus that has presumably only recently mutated to become transmissible to humans, and transmissible between humans, it may be on the cusp of another mutation that would make it more severe or more contagious.
So it makes sense to very closely monitor novel viruses like this.

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Originally Posted by China Guy
That said, in the aftermath of SARS they have done a credible job. Frankly, the WHO are not complaining about a lack of transparency.
Additionally I gather that the speed with which the virus was identified, sequenced and the sequence published, may be the fastest ever.
I'm happy to criticize the chinese government on many topics, but in this case it seems they are doing everything they can, and a lot of the online criticism comes from people working from their own conception of China and not knowing much about this situation.
  #121  
Old 01-26-2020, 12:46 AM
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The next big milestone in China is post Chinese New Year. Jan 31 is the first official work day. Factories tend to open ~3 Feb.

1. How long will the transportation lock down be enforced in Wuhan?
2. There is always a roughly 25% turnover rate among factory workers that don't come back after Chinese New Year
3. Will migrant workers return to the Wuhan area? What about other areas?
4. Does the coronavirus spread to other major metropolitan areas and/or transportation gets shut down further?
5. Does the transmission vector become more clear? IE, is it only infectious when there is a fever, how infectious is it, are there "super shedders", or can serious handwashing/mask wearing dramatically reduce the transmission?

A lesson from SARS is that factories screen employees entering and exiting the factory (minimum 2x/day), and if one has a fever then it is into formal and/or informal quarantine. Office workers work from home. Those that must go into the office tend to go in shifts, so that if one shift has a temperature, then they get quarantined but the rest can still work. Management tends to have a morning and evening checkpoint.

Everyone understands that this is a deadly virus, and treat it with utmost seriousness.

Trying hard to phrase this correctly. Amongst all other factors, it is in the Chinese Government's best interest to 1) keep the export machine running without interruption, and 2) be viewed by the general population as solving the problem. There is no leeway for a massive cover up or denial of the challenge. Keep in mind that since SARS in 2003, China's GDP has increased 6-8 times, smart phones have become ubiquitous, and Weibo and WeChat have let the communication genie out of the bottle. It's a huge difference from when I was in Shanghai during SARS, and a different world from the Great Leap in the 1950's.
  #122  
Old 01-26-2020, 01:39 AM
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1975 infections; 56 dead now.
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Medical workers in Wuhan have been among those infected and local media reported a doctor died on Saturday morning. The 62-year-old physician worked at the ear, nose and throat department at Hubei Xinhua Hospital. He was hospitalized on Jan. 18 and died a week later.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 01-26-2020 at 01:41 AM.
  #123  
Old 01-26-2020, 03:05 AM
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I found this interesting Channel 4 interview with an Irish teacher living (and quarantined) in Wuhan (7 minutes long).

TL; DW: he's trapped and he understands that. He describes (and video shows) that the streets of this city of over 11 million people are totally deserted. Shops are closed. All of them. There are no vehicles on the streets, and no people to not see them.

He describes it as bizarre, like being in some dystopian movie and indeed, it looks like one. The first thing I thought of was the footage in 28 Days Later right after Jim wakes up from his coma.

This certainly appears to be scary, serious stuff going on. "Interesting times" indeed.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 01-26-2020 at 03:05 AM.
  #124  
Old 01-26-2020, 03:57 AM
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Or it could become more serious.
IANAVirologist, but AIUI, as it's a virus that has presumably only recently mutated to become transmissible to humans, and transmissible between humans, it may be on the cusp of another mutation that would make it more severe or more contagious.
So it makes sense to very closely monitor novel viruses like this.
To some extent all of the above is true influenza, as it mutates so readily. Flu is also monitored, of course, but again flu is a much more known quantity. It can certainly turn into a deadly pandemic, and has, but usually doesn't get that bad.

We're still in early days with the Wuhan virus, but all indications we are looking at a death rate of around 3% - the stats in post 122 come out to 2.8%. As of yet, I have not seen morbidity information - are there any lingering effects? That's almost as important as overall death rates. Hidden in the doom mongering is that people have recovered from this illness, which is of course good news.

Last edited by Broomstick; 01-26-2020 at 04:02 AM.
  #125  
Old 01-26-2020, 06:19 AM
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I don't want to sound too paranoid although the notion is interesting to think about. There are reports of biological warfare laboratories in Wuhan or close by that some have posited this virus could have escaped from such a facility. We all remember reading/watching The Stand right?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.was...linked-chines/
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Last edited by pool; 01-26-2020 at 06:20 AM.
  #126  
Old 01-26-2020, 07:41 AM
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I seem to recall hearing that China has a biosafety level 4 lab in the area. Is that a "biological warfare laboratory" or a research facility like our CDC?

Which doesn't eliminate the possibility of an escape, but not all labs are sinister
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Old 01-26-2020, 09:47 AM
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Where I live we hear a lot of rumors via Facebook or grapevine. There's a general perception that the government tends to suppress unpleasant news; and indeed when I Search for "coronavirus Thailand" on Google news I get two-day old stories. Airport arrivees were being tested, but I'm told that that testing has been suspended. Through the grapevine I hear that Thailand has the 2nd-most cases of any country! Is this true?? There's a feverish patient (whose home is 20+ miles from mine) recently returned from China being tested right now.

My vague impression is that this virus is spreading much faster than the SARS coronavirus that scared the world back in 2003. Is that correct?

The government here is not noted for astute problem-solving. Last week Bangkok had severe smog; the P.M. announced that the government was blameless and blamed the smog on ordinary citizens!
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Old 01-26-2020, 09:53 AM
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I don't want to sound too paranoid although the notion is interesting to think about. There are reports of biological warfare laboratories in Wuhan or close by that some have posited this virus could have escaped from such a facility....
No matter how evil you think the PRC Government is, trying to weaponize a coronavirus is too stupid to be plausible ... I hope.

Next up in my movie-watching queue: Contagion with Matt Damon and Gwyneth Paltrow!
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Old 01-26-2020, 10:00 AM
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To some extent all of the above is true influenza, as it mutates so readily. Flu is also monitored, of course, but again flu is a much more known quantity. It can certainly turn into a deadly pandemic, and has, but usually doesn't get that bad.

We're still in early days with the Wuhan virus, but all indications we are looking at a death rate of around 3% - the stats in post 122 come out to 2.8%. As of yet, I have not seen morbidity information - are there any lingering effects? That's almost as important as overall death rates. Hidden in the doom mongering is that people have recovered from this illness, which is of course good news.
But what I'm getting at, is that this is a new-to-humans virus, and while it's true that any viral or bacterial infection can mutate in any way at any time, there's an increased risk of increased severity from novel pathogens. Apparently the first 3 months are a critical period.

Again, I'm not a virologist, but the way I would understand it is this:
Imagine influenza binds or enters cells using method A, and this new coronavirus uses method B. Method A has been mutating for many years and hit a kind of equilibrium where, yes, it mutates such that it can resist the last season's antibodies but significant gains in commutability or mortality require a more fundamental / structural change.
Meanwhile method B is novel; and the Wuhan virus has only just gained the mutations required to be transmissible between humans; the full potential of method B in humans may not have been realized yet, and might require just a couple more mutations.

If it sounds like I'm for some reason rooting for such a prospect, bear in mind I live a couple provinces over from Wuhan. Not only am I worried about myself and the people around me, but life sucks here right now -- the streets are deserted. I hoping very much for it to be over quickly.
  #130  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:18 AM
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My vague impression is that this virus is spreading much faster than the SARS coronavirus that scared the world back in 2003. Is that correct?
Latest I've heard is that it MIGHT be that this virus is contagious before symptoms show up, which could account for the spread.
  #131  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:56 AM
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... As of yet, I have not seen morbidity information - are there any lingering effects? That's almost as important as overall death rates. Hidden in the doom mongering is that people have recovered from this illness, which is of course good news.
Yes ... and of significant concern to its spread. On the one hand it is good news that "2019-nCoV may be less pathogenic than MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV" but that also makes containing it more difficult.
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If infection does not cause serious disease, infected people probably will not end up in health care centers. Instead, they will go to work and travel, thereby potentially spreading the virus to their contacts, possibly even internationally. Whether subclinical or mild disease from 2019-nCoV is also associated with a reduced risk of virus spread remains to be determined. ...

... We currently do not know where 2019-nCoV falls on the scale of human-to-human transmissibility. But it is safe to assume that if this virus transmits efficiently, its seemingly lower pathogenicity as compared with SARS, possibly combined with super-spreader events in specific cases, could allow large-scale spread. In this manner, a virus that poses a low health threat on the individual level can pose a high risk on the population level, with the potential to cause disruptions of global public health systems and economic losses. This possibility warrants the current aggressive response aimed at tracing and diagnosing every infected patient and thereby breaking the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV.
We do know that it can cause mild and even asymptomatic infections. This was a family cluster:
Quote:
...For the two asymptomatic children (patients 5 and 6), patient 5 had ground-glass lung opacities identified by CT scan. ... Notably, patients 3 and 4 were afebrile at presentation to our hospital. These cryptic cases of walking pneumonia might serve as a possible source to propagate the outbreak. Further studies on the epidemiological significance of these asymptomatic cases are warranted.

The symptoms of this novel pneumonia were also non-specific. The three oldest patients in this family with comorbidities had more severe systemic symptoms of generalised weakness and dry cough. ... the two younger adults (patients 3 and 4) initially had diarrhoea ...

... as shown in this study, it is still crucial to isolate patients and trace and quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible
We have no idea how many of those asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases are out there, or how contagious they are. They might not be contagious at all. Or they might be moderately contagious. The worst case for its spreading far would be its usually causing mild to no disease in healthy kids, who tend to spray infection all around them.
  #132  
Old 01-26-2020, 11:15 AM
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Are other viruses spread before symptoms show up?
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Old 01-26-2020, 11:19 AM
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No matter how evil you think the PRC Government is, trying to weaponize a coronavirus is too stupid to be plausible ... I hope.

Next up in my movie-watching queue: Contagion with Matt Damon and Gwyneth Paltrow!
OMG!

I am reminded of two events and I hope they are not related.

Event 1
The first was when the NK govt allegedly sent some agents to deal with the step-brother or brother-in-law of the dear leader and two female Japanese were duped into believing they were participating in one of those game shows where a practical joke was played on someone. Long story short ... they rubbed some deadly virus into the face of the relative and he died a horrible death. It happened at some airport in an Asian country I believe.

Event 2
The NK dear leader was unhappy at the USA leadership and said words to the effect, "we are planning a big surprise in the new year."

Does anyone else remember these two events? If so, what are the odds they may be related?

Here is a link to the news story of Event 1.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assass...f_Kim_Jong-nam


Here is a link to Event 2.

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/23/79017...re-the-options

Last edited by Charlie Wayne; 01-26-2020 at 11:23 AM.
  #134  
Old 01-26-2020, 11:34 AM
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Re my above post.

The virus used in the above example could not be the same as the coronavirus. I just wonder if something, somehow could have gone wrong and if there is some relation between the coronavirus and those events.

The assassination was not particularly recent. It occurred in 2017.

Last edited by Charlie Wayne; 01-26-2020 at 11:35 AM.
  #135  
Old 01-26-2020, 11:38 AM
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Are other viruses spread before symptoms show up?
Of course. A little thing called HIV, for example.
  #136  
Old 01-26-2020, 12:46 PM
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Sticking just with the coronavirus family, most of which cause common colds and sore throats, yes, for most of the family usually the period of contagiousness begins a day or so before symptomatic infection and is greatest the first three to four days of illness.

In general "cold viruses" like those of the coronavirus family (and even more commonly rhinoviruses) can be spread by those who have "subclinical" infections - i.e. those who are asymptomatic or at least only minimally symptomatic - but less so than those with more symptoms. Usually this family spreads by close contact and is less easily transmissible than say influenza is.

Confirmed.
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China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said on Sunday that the new coronavirus is contagious even in its incubation period, which lasts up to 14 days ...
  #137  
Old 01-26-2020, 12:51 PM
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3rd US case; in California this time.

China temporarily bans wildlife trade in wake of outbreak.
  #138  
Old 01-26-2020, 01:09 PM
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Are there vaccines for coronavirii? I don't recall that one was ever crafted for the coronavirus that caused SARS. As I see in this 2009 Medscape article detailing the then state of the art in developing one. Or in this Medline blurb in 2016. Did the disease burn out and industry just said, "Fuck it."? Are there difficulties in adapting a killed-virus vaccine model to coronaviruses? (coronavirii? I didn't take Latin...)

I do see that Inovio just got a grant to make a DNA-based vaccine.
What I read recently about the SARS vaccine was that it caused severe side effects...like the side effects killed the test subjects (ie. animals)...which kind of defeats the purpose of the vaccine. Can't remember where I read it, but I remember the phrase "cascade of effects" that described the process that killed the vaccinated animals. Further testing on human subjects was stopped before it started.
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Old 01-26-2020, 01:33 PM
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There is also the limitation that immunity even to natural disease is very short-lived for the family, lasting only about four months, and that the family is prone to rapid changes. RNA viruses like the coronavirus family mutate rapidly. Both those features make effective immunization programs very very hard to succeed in.

Here's the thing in that though: rapid mutation rates means that those variants that spread the the fastest quickly outcompete those who do not, and those that cause milder/benign disease are much more successful at spreading themselves than those that lay patients up or kill them rapidly.
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Old 01-26-2020, 01:39 PM
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I contacted the CDC via email to see if they were interested in testing me.
I still have some hearing loss I'm attributing to 6 flights with an acute URI.
  #141  
Old 01-26-2020, 02:16 PM
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Has any reputable organization made that claim? Not fucking hearsay from "secret sources"? Since everything I have read about it suggests that the Chinese Government has been as forthcoming with the information they have. I mean it took several days for them to i)identify this as a virus that ii)could spread to humans. This takes time. Its not like they could get revelations on it from the Almighty.
the Chinese government has a long track record of controlling information as they see fit.

So, yes, there is concern regarding the flow of information.

That they have announced what's going on isn't a deviation of their policy of controlling information. It's just an acknowledgment that you can't hide the closure of airports and train stations and a mass influx of patients clogging up hospitals. The information can't be hidden.

the advantage of this happening in an authoritarian nation is that leaders can snap their fingers and do whatever they want to stop the disease from spreading.

Last edited by Magiver; 01-26-2020 at 02:19 PM.
  #142  
Old 01-26-2020, 03:04 PM
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OMG!

I am reminded of two events and I hope they are not related.

Event 1
The first was when the NK govt allegedly sent some agents to deal with the step-brother or brother-in-law of the dear leader and two female Japanese were duped into believing they were participating in one of those game shows where a practical joke was played on someone. Long story short ... they rubbed some deadly virus into the face of the relative and he died a horrible death. It happened at some airport in an Asian country I believe.
You are misinformed. They did not rub his face with a virus. They rubbed his face with a military grade nerve gas. Completely unrelated

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Originally Posted by carrps View Post
What I read recently about the SARS vaccine was that it caused severe side effects...like the side effects killed the test subjects (ie. animals)...which kind of defeats the purpose of the vaccine. Can't remember where I read it, but I remember the phrase "cascade of effects" that described the process that killed the vaccinated animals. Further testing on human subjects was stopped before it started.
I think the vaccine had a tendency to precipitate a cytokine cascade or cytokine storm. Which, yeah, can certainly be fatal in and of itself.
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Old 01-26-2020, 03:27 PM
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Magiver, the chinese government has publicly been releasing information since late Dec. Or about a month before shutting down some transportation. I suspect shutting down transportation had more to do with Chinese new year and the largest mass migration that takes place annually than if there were no new years travel by hundreds of millions of people, and large gatherings of more than a billion people.

The government undoubtedly controls information, but is this case where the obvious explanation is to be as transparent as possible into to prevent mass hysteria that could directly threaten the rule of the CCP, as well as impact the export export machine that also legitimizes the government. Anything else is trending into conspiracy territory
  #144  
Old 01-26-2020, 03:28 PM
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Magiver, the chinese government has publicly been releasing information since late Dec. Or about a month before shutting down some transportation. I suspect shutting down transportation had more to do with Chinese new year and the largest mass migration that takes place annually than if there were no new years travel by hundreds of millions of people, and large gatherings of more than a billion people.

The government undoubtedly controls information, but is this case where the obvious explanation is to be as transparent as possible into to prevent mass hysteria that could directly threaten the rule of the CCP, as well as impact the export export machine that also legitimizes the government. Anything else is trending into conspiracy territory
  #145  
Old 01-26-2020, 03:30 PM
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You are misinformed. They did not rub his face with a virus. They rubbed his face with a military grade nerve gas. Completely unrelated
I didn't remember which kind of deadly poison it was. I recall that it was some liquid they soaked a cloth or handkerchief and then rubbed that all over his face. They thought they were playing some kind of practical joke. But he then died a most painful - even excrutiating - death.

He was related to the dear leader of NK and as I recall, the leader either feared he would attempt a coup or was angered with him and felt he had the right to murder him. He may well have had the right - but not outside of his country. I believe it happened at some Asian airport and I don't believe anyone was ever brought to justice for that murder.
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Old 01-26-2020, 04:49 PM
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The government undoubtedly controls information, but is this case where the obvious explanation is to be as transparent as possible into to prevent mass hysteria that could directly threaten the rule of the CCP
Anything that threatens the rule of the CCP about sums it up.

There is no conspiracy theory behind their heavy handed control of what the public is allowed to know. It's a fact. Regardless of what information they provide it will always be tainted by their control of the media.
  #147  
Old 01-26-2020, 05:26 PM
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Five cases in the US now.
Quote:
The U.S. has five confirmed cases of the new virus from China, all of whom traveled to the city that is the center of the outbreak, health officials said Sunday.

Two new cases were reported Sunday — one in Los Angeles County in California and the other in Maricopa County, Arizona. The others were a patient in Orange County, California, who was in isolation at a hospital and in good condition; a man in his 30s in Washington state; and a woman in her 60s from Chicago.
  #148  
Old 01-26-2020, 05:52 PM
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Anything that threatens the rule of the CCP about sums it up.

There is no conspiracy theory behind their heavy handed control of what the public is allowed to know. It's a fact. Regardless of what information they provide it will always be tainted by their control of the media.
Magiver, you might be missing my point. We are in agreement that the Chinese government has a heavy handed control of the media, although one could argue the degree.

In this instance, controlling the outbreak as well as spinning the perception is unquestionably in the best interest of the Government and CCP. Anything else simply doesn't make sense and is conspiracy theory territory. Which is to say that China and the world is aligned on getting thru this crisis as quickly and effectively as possible.
  #149  
Old 01-26-2020, 05:54 PM
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Anything that threatens the rule of the CCP about sums it up.



There is no conspiracy theory behind their heavy handed control of what the public is allowed to know. It's a fact. Regardless of what information they provide it will always be tainted by their control of the media.
<On preview: what he said>

Hate to do "whataboutism", but the current US administration is hardly a trusted source now either.
So let's do it case by case.
And in this case, most international observers agree that the government has moved quickly and been very forthcoming.

Last edited by Mijin; 01-26-2020 at 05:56 PM.
  #150  
Old 01-26-2020, 06:38 PM
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What I read recently about the SARS vaccine was that it caused severe side effects...like the side effects killed the test subjects (ie. animals)...which kind of defeats the purpose of the vaccine. Can't remember where I read it, but I remember the phrase "cascade of effects" that described the process that killed the vaccinated animals. Further testing on human subjects was stopped before it started.
I was wondering why work seemingly ceased. My brief research looking at papers on the subject indicated that one trial in primates resulted in severe pulmonary issues, presumably above and beyond that caused by the bug.

A coronavirus sounds like many other biological weapons: long incubation period, with asymptomatic carriers able to spread the disease; decent R0 somewhere above 2; mortality rate in the lower teens, according to the study I cited on the last page. Doesn't mean this bug is one, of course.

I guess what has people spooked about this is two-fold: first, the actions of the Chinese government do not match a government concerned about a disease less virulent than the flu. Second, if China is materially affected, what is this going to do to all of the rest of the countries in the world that are dependent on Chinese finished goods and raw materials?
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