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  #151  
Old 01-26-2020, 06:59 PM
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<On preview: what he said>

Hate to do "whataboutism", but the current US administration is hardly a trusted source now either.
So let's do it case by case.
And in this case, most international observers agree that the government has moved quickly and been very forthcoming.
The US has a free press so the source of information is independent of the government. It's based on the very first amendment which is considered the foundation of all other amendments that follow. No administration controls the press.

China controls the flow of information at their discretion. International observers are allowed to see what China allows them to see. Any validation from their observations is limited to that process. It could be accurate. Or not.

I'm not sure what your point is. Mine is a simple observation that China controls the flow of information and therefore we have no way of verifying the accuracy of coming from a non-independent media.
  #152  
Old 01-26-2020, 07:56 PM
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About 100,000 people could be infected with the new coronavirus around the world, experts have warned, as the UK government faced calls to reassure people that the NHS is ready to deal with any British cases within days.

Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...y-experts-warn
  #153  
Old 01-26-2020, 08:54 PM
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80 dead now; 2,744 confirmed infections.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 01-26-2020 at 08:55 PM.
  #154  
Old 01-26-2020, 09:05 PM
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[The Mayor] Mr. Zhou also said that five million people had left Wuhan before travel out of the city was restricted, leaving nine million people still living there.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/26/w...ss&partner=rss

Well, there's nothing like locking the barn door after the horse has bolted.

Seriously, I was thinking several hundred thousand had left--not five million.
  #155  
Old 01-26-2020, 09:12 PM
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At the current rate of infectious expansion, we could see over 350,000 infected two weeks from today. Possibly over 10,000 dead.

Or have I done the math wrong?
  #156  
Old 01-26-2020, 09:54 PM
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So... fatality rates are still running about 3%.....

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At the current rate of infectious expansion, we could see over 350,000 infected two weeks from today. Possibly over 10,000 dead.

Or have I done the math wrong?
Nope, you have the math more or less correct. That's still about a 3% mortality rate.

Last edited by Broomstick; 01-26-2020 at 09:55 PM.
  #157  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:24 PM
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So... fatality rates are still running about 3%.....


Nope, you have the math more or less correct. That's still about a 3% mortality rate.
At some point 3% turns into a lot of people doesn't it?
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  #158  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:37 PM
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More than 50 million people in at least 17 cities quarantined in China now.
  #159  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:53 PM
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suspected case here in NC turned out to be something else
  #160  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:54 PM
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At some point 3% turns into a lot of people doesn't it?
Or Professor Ferguson is roughly correct and the true number of cases is up to 50 times the number currently labeled as such due to undiagnosed mild and subclinical infections. With actual mortality rate more like 0.06%. But hard to contain.

At some point 0.06% is a lot of people.
  #161  
Old 01-27-2020, 12:04 AM
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At some point 3% turns into a lot of people doesn't it?
That is indeed true.

As an example, 3% of the current world population would be around 225 million and that is in fact a lot of people even if it's a very small percent of the total. 3% of China is about 41,400,000. 3% of Europe is about 22 million. 3% of North American is about 17 million. And so on.

I doubt it would get that bad, but it does give a certain perspective on statistics.
  #162  
Old 01-27-2020, 12:34 AM
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/26/w...ss&partner=rss

Well, there's nothing like locking the barn door after the horse has bolted.

Seriously, I was thinking several hundred thousand had left--not five million.
I don't believe it. Just from my own experience watching hurricane evacuations. This article is claiming that ~40 percent of a city 50 percent again as big as the entire San Francisco Bay Area metropolitan arrea, was able to leave over, what, a week or two? Without titanic traffic jams and massive social chaos? You'd be able to see the traffic snarl from space.

Bullshit. I swear, our pundit class must think foreigners are ants or something.

Chinese are human beings. They don't get to defy the laws of physics or human behavior because they live in a dictatorship. Just think about what 5 million people on the move would look like. Hell, 500,000 people evacuating sounds like garbage if the public transportation links are severed.

OTOH, and feel free to look back on page 1 at the epidemiology study I cited, I have no problem believing the actual number of cases in Wuhan and elsewhere are far greater than officially stated.
  #163  
Old 01-27-2020, 12:39 AM
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I'm not sure what your point is. Mine is a simple observation that China controls the flow of information and therefore we have no way of verifying the accuracy of coming from a non-independent media.
I guess I'm getting a bit touchy because so much of the discussion on other forums, youtube comments etc, is people actually getting angry that the Chinese government is acting too slowly, or hiding information or whatever. So essentially they are guessing about what is happening, based on their conception of China, then their own guess is making them angry.

I'm not suggesting anyone just take the government's word at face value. I don't.

But we do have ways of verifying the accuracy; we're here on the ground seeing it. Foreign disease centers are working closely with Chinese scientists.
And, there's no benefit to lying about the numbers; if what they're saying is thousands of people are infected, large areas have been quarantined, it's spread to all provinces, and transport hubs abroad have been notified of the symptoms so we can know very accurately what proportion of people leaving have the disease, and the mortality rate...what benefit could there be at this point to saying there are fewer cases than the real number?
ETA: it's possible some of the numbers are not accurate just because the medical systems in the most affected regions are swamped and some people are just riding it out at home. But that's a separate issue to Chinese secrecy.

Last edited by Mijin; 01-27-2020 at 12:43 AM.
  #164  
Old 01-27-2020, 12:39 AM
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I doubt it would get that bad, but it does give a certain perspective on statistics.
It's scaring the *bleep* out of me. If panicking would do any good, I would be panicking at this time.

There are two things about this that are especially nasty. The first is that this disease spreads before any symptoms are evident. So you can meet with a friend or relative who is symptom free and share your fears - never realizing that you had just contracted the disease while you thought you were safe and sharing your fears with a friend.

The second is that it has been reported that people who die spend several hours writhing in pain and agony before they die. I know that most all fatal diseases are pretty nasty. But this one seems to be near the top of the list.
  #165  
Old 01-27-2020, 12:43 AM
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I'll ask it again: how is mortality rate determined for a bug like this? Is it: dead/number of sick? Or is it: dead/(dead+fully recovered)? Or is it some other method?

Because, assuming we have 2,200 sick or so, and only 50 dead, we don't know that the virus will only kill 50/2200 of the remaining cases. We only know that, in cases that have run their course, X died, and Y lived. The far larger pool of Z that are sick? We don't know what's going to happen to them.

Of course, this is all reliant on official numbers, the vast, vast majority Chinese, and well, you know.

Aside, for those of you skilled in Mol. Biology, and genetic informatics, how fast could your group sequence a novel coronavirus using the methods described in, e.g., the New England Journal of Medicine article, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001017

Is a few days typical, crazy fast, slow, what?
  #166  
Old 01-27-2020, 12:49 AM
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So... fatality rates are still running about 3%.....
ETA: Once again, got ninjad on this post.

It might be a little premature to extrapolate the fatality rate.
While the number dead is currently approximately 3% of infections, the number of patients reported as fully recovered is also a similarly low number right now.

So AIUI there is still a large number of ongoing infections where we don't have good data to know the proportion of people dying slowly vs in the process of recovering.

Last edited by Mijin; 01-27-2020 at 12:51 AM.
  #167  
Old 01-27-2020, 12:52 AM
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...what benefit could there be at this point to saying there are fewer cases than the real number?

ETA: it's possible some of the numbers are not accurate just because the medical systems in the most affected regions are swamped and some people are just riding it out at home. But that's a separate issue to Chinese secrecy.
I'll take this one. Because if China actually has 200,000 cases of this bug, and not 2,000, the rest of the world is going to collectively lose their shit and start blocking travel of Chinese people and imports and exports of Chinese goods. Both of which will crater the Chinese economy (along with the rest of the world's), and probably topple the Chinese government.

As one guy I read pithily put it, "The country that makes all our shit, is going offline for awhile." No one has an interest in seeing that happen. Not comforting in a world of just-in-time logistics.

I really hope you guys get a hold on this, Mijin, and this turns out to be just another bird flu scare..
  #168  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:18 AM
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I'll take this one. Because if China actually has 200,000 cases of this bug, and not 2,000, the rest of the world is going to collectively lose their shit and start blocking travel of Chinese people and imports and exports of Chinese goods. Both of which will crater the Chinese economy (along with the rest of the world's), and probably topple the Chinese government.
The situation is moving much faster than would be required for this kind of ruse to be sustainable for long enough to be economically worthwhile. Meanwhile, in the shorter term, the government has extended the CNY holiday, so factories are going to be closed for longer and we're accepting the economic hit.

And like I say, the rest of the world is going to know approximately how prevalent this disease is by how many cases they detect coming out of China.

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I really hope you guys get a hold on this, Mijin, and this turns out to be just another bird flu scare..
Thanks
  #169  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:45 AM
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BTW, the CDC is calling it 2019-nCoV. That's short for "novel Coronavirus 2019". Not very catchy, tho. Unless we pronounce it enkovee (ehn kō vee); that kind of flows.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 01-27-2020 at 01:47 AM.
  #170  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:50 AM
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This morning I was tutoring a middle school student at the Company facility. My other 2 students for the hour were absent, one calling in sick and the other a no-call-no-show. The director came to give me a heads up, and we agreed that there are many people sick right now (many students at my school have gone home sick this week). The student I was working with today seemed honestly scared when he asked me if everyone had the flu or that disease that comes from Japan. Straightened which nation out first, but them reassured him that so far the disease was not here in our city, and people here just have the usual seasonal colds and viruses. I told him to wash his hand often and use hand sanitizer at school, and we should be fine.

So sad that the media has to needlessly scare kids when hyping a news story.
I was 12 years old when Legionnaire's Disease was discovered, and being a kid, I was frightened of getting it even though I had never been anywhere near Philadelphia (and still haven't). But the thing was, WE JUST DIDN'T KNOW. I have always believed that it was a major contributor to the swine flu fiasco a few months later. That vaccine really WAS more dangerous than the disease it was intended to prevent, and my parents were right when they refused to let us kids get it, or take it themselves.
  #171  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:52 AM
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Another endorsement of KarlGauss' post.

Public health experts are very correct to consider worst case possibilities and to advise reasonable precautions. But I look at the current numbers and see them as very reassuring, not as reason to "panic".

Population of Wuhan? Over 11 million living fairly densely.

Diagnosed cases? Under 1400.

Deaths? A few dozen, mostly in higher risk individuals.

If this was something both highly contagious and of high morbidity and mortality then in a place like Wuhan we'd be seeing much more than that by now.

My bet is that it is of moderate contagiousness and fairly low morbidity and mortality with the diagnosed number of cases being a small fraction of the total number out there, most being of cold symptoms that never come to any medical attention let alone to diagnostic testing. If so the next month or so will see the numbers of diagnosed cases increasing and the morbidity and mortality rates decreasing, even without any mutations of the virus to less virulence.

Still that is the reasonable bet and is not known.

Containing it as best as is possible is the prudent action and good practice of systems for other future potential threats. "Panic"? I don't think so.


FWIW I do not personally own a thermometer. As a physician (other than for the babies under 2 months) I care much less about the exact number on a thermometer than how an individual is feeling and acting, and the pattern of the illness. As a society we are often excessively feverphobic.
ITA 95%. The 5% disagreement is because I do own a thermometer, and probably use it once or twice a year, when I'm in doubt and want to find out for myself if I have a fever.
  #172  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:53 AM
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Mijin, where is there news that the government has extended the CNY holiday for factories? I see the standard holiday has been extended to 2 Feb, but factories are typically shut for a 10-15 day period over Chinese New Year, while the official CNY holiday is only 5 days (right?).

I can't say too much, but the company I work for has morning and evening coronavirus war room concalls. I join the morning concall, and in all of our China factories, no one has tested positive or put under quarantine (knock on wood). It's in our own self interest to test, because if we have infected workers then at best that whole shift goes into quarantine. At worst, the entire factory goes into quarantine. My point being that the Chinese government couldn't stop the flow of information even if they wanted to as there are simply far too many foreigners, foreign ventures in China. Not to mention that Weibo, WeChat and the rest can only be edited after the fact and can't be managed to the degree that some folks think they can.

A global blockade of Chinese citizens, and Chinese imports and exports, with a toppled government and anarchy will probably not help a global pandemic. Pithy guy might want to rethink that strategy. D'oh!

Again, there is zero reason for the Chinese government to be minimizing the number of cases. Of course, there may be some local officials as outliers, but it sure as hell isn't condoned nor policy. And it should be no surprise that given the panic by those actually living in what is effectively a state wide quarantine, every person with a cough or fever is frantically trying to see a doctor, so shouldn't be a surprise that there is undercounting while the system tries to catch up with the cases. You'll see the same thing in the US if thousands of people in Seattle suddenly try to get into the ER. That's a separate issue from deliberately trying to cover up the number of cases.

Furthermore, since everyone in China by definition lived thru SARS, they are taking it really seriously.
  #173  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:58 AM
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Mijin, where is there news that the government has extended the CNY holiday for factories? I see the standard holiday has been extended to 2 Feb, but factories are typically shut for a 10-15 day period over Chinese New Year, while the official CNY holiday is only 5 days (right?).
Ah I didn't know that. I only knew about the across the board extension of CNY and didn't realize the factories don't start that soon anyway. Ignorance fought.

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Again, there is zero reason for the Chinese government to be minimizing the number of cases. Of course, there may be some local officials as outliers, but it sure as hell isn't condoned nor policy. And it should be no surprise that given the panic by those actually living in what is effectively a state wide quarantine, every person with a cough or fever is frantically trying to see a doctor, so shouldn't be a surprise that there is undercounting while the system tries to catch up with the cases. You'll see the same thing in the US if thousands of people in Seattle suddenly try to get into the ER. That's a separate issue from deliberately trying to cover up the number of cases.

Furthermore, since everyone in China by definition lived thru SARS, they are taking it really seriously.
Agreed, and you put it better than I did.
  #174  
Old 01-27-2020, 02:14 AM
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Mijin, must have been announced this morning. I see reports now that Suzhou (a huge manufacturing center) has extended CNY holiday to 8 Feb (vs the original 30 Jan).

The phone lines to my customers tomorrow morning are going to be burning...
  #175  
Old 01-27-2020, 02:25 AM
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Aside, for those of you skilled in Mol. Biology, and genetic informatics, how fast could your group sequence a novel coronavirus using the methods described in, e.g., the New England Journal of Medicine article, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001017

Is a few days typical, crazy fast, slow, what?
Assuming adequate starting material, decent techs, a reasonable informatics pipeline (all of which good research clinical institutes would have access to), a few days is plenty of time to sequence, assembly, verify, and probably re-run the novel findings to make sure you didn't do anything dumb.

FWIW, the lab reporting the findings in the linked paper was clearly aware the entire world was likely to second guess them - their methods section is surprisingly detailed and clearly written..... especially for an NEJM article.....
  #176  
Old 01-27-2020, 06:51 AM
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One of my friends in Taiwan went back home to China for CNY. She says it’s crazy there and she’s coming back to Taiwan.
  #177  
Old 01-27-2020, 08:05 AM
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I don't believe it. Just from my own experience watching hurricane evacuations. This article is claiming that ~40 percent of a city 50 percent again as big as the entire San Francisco Bay Area metropolitan arrea, was able to leave over, what, a week or two? Without titanic traffic jams and massive social chaos? You'd be able to see the traffic snarl from space.
Wuhan does have one thing American cities don't have: High speed rail. As you can see on this map, Wuhan is a major railroad hub, with high speed rail lines leading to Changsha, Jiujiang, Hefei, Zhengzhou and Xiangfan. If they brought in additional trains from other parts of the country, they could run a train every few minutes on each rail line, each carrying over 1200 people.

Last edited by scr4; 01-27-2020 at 08:07 AM.
  #178  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:00 AM
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It's scaring the *bleep* out of me. If panicking would do any good, I would be panicking at this time.
Panicking will do no good at any time. If you are really concerned acquire sufficient bottled water, food, and other items to see you through 2 weeks so if you need to hunker down (which I think is highly unlikely) you'll be able to do so in relative comfort, or at least not too much discomfort. Wash your hands, try to get sufficient rest and eat properly and that's about as much as you, as an individual, can do.

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IThere are two things about this that are especially nasty. The first is that this disease spreads before any symptoms are evident. So you can meet with a friend or relative who is symptom free and share your fears - never realizing that you had just contracted the disease while you thought you were safe and sharing your fears with a friend.
This may shock you but "contagious before symptoms show" is nothing particularly unusual for a disease. The common cold and influenza both have that trait. So does the measles.

If you're outside of China it's unlikely such a contact is going to result in an infection at this point. If you're that concerned stick to the internet and texting.

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IThe second is that it has been reported that people who die spend several hours writhing in pain and agony before they die. I know that most all fatal diseases are pretty nasty. But this one seems to be near the top of the list.
Yes, well, when a disease destroys your lung function things will get ugly. Again, not the only disease to bring a nasty death. Also, curious where you got this information because, not to put to fine a point on it, you tend towards the alarmist.

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It might be a little premature to extrapolate the fatality rate.
While the number dead is currently approximately 3% of infections, the number of patients reported as fully recovered is also a similarly low number right now.
True.

On the other hand, despite all the scrutiny, we aren't seeing a sudden spike in the death rate. I am fully aware that might change but I choose to see the current 3% level as... well, not sure I'd describe it as a positive but it's certainly better than some other diseases.

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ISo AIUI there is still a large number of ongoing infections where we don't have good data to know the proportion of people dying slowly vs in the process of recovering.
Only time will tell. But until the death rate starts to go up I'm not going to become more alarmed. I have better things to spend my energy on. I'll keep paying attention, but at this point I'm not expecting that I, personally, will be endangered.

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I'll take this one. Because if China actually has 200,000 cases of this bug, and not 2,000, the rest of the world is going to collectively lose their shit and start blocking travel of Chinese people and imports and exports of Chinese goods. Both of which will crater the Chinese economy (along with the rest of the world's), and probably topple the Chinese government.
I'm not sure there would be a need to block material goods at the border. If it is transmitted by bodily fluids then imports that do not contain bodily fluids are no risk. How long does this virus survive outside the human body? A day? Two days? A week? If it is only viable outside a human host for, say, 36 hours then just hold any imports in transit less than 36 hours for awhile in port, isolated, until sufficient time elapses. And why would exports TO China be blocked? Even in the most stringent quarantines you let necessities into the area. This is alarmist and doesn't make sense.

Now, blocking the travel of people might become necessary, that is a possibility at this point. Absolutely that would be disruptive. You know what else is disruptive? A world-wide pandemic. Either way, you get a large economic impact but I'd rather live through the impact of a quarantine than just throw up our hands and say "whatever" and NOT impose quarantines or travel restrictions where appropriate.

I suspect it will NOT topple the Chinese government. It might topple some other, less stable governments.

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IAs one guy I read pithily put it, "The country that makes all our shit, is going offline for awhile." No one has an interest in seeing that happen. Not comforting in a world of just-in-time logistics.
Too bad.

So it will take 2-3 days to get stuff, or a week, instead of a single day. You know what? That used to be the norm. It will be annoying but only that - annoying. Adjustments will be made and the world will go on. There would probably be some interruptions and spotty shortages but no one is going to starve to death over this. So sorry if dealing with a possible pandemic, whether trying to prevent it or dealing with it if it gets started, might be inconvenient.
  #179  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:07 AM
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Assuming adequate starting material, decent techs, a reasonable informatics pipeline (all of which good research clinical institutes would have access to), a few days is plenty of time to sequence, assembly, verify, and probably re-run the novel findings to make sure you didn't do anything dumb.

FWIW, the lab reporting the findings in the linked paper was clearly aware the entire world was likely to second guess them - their methods section is surprisingly detailed and clearly written..... especially for an NEJM article.....
Thanks! Ignorance fought. Both your post and ChinaGuy's. I had no idea one way or the other, nor that NEJM articles aren't usually the clearest when it comes to the Methods section... It's been a very long time since I had to do a literature review to verify a proposed lab procedure.

Amazing how fast it can be done these days. Now to spin up a vaccine...and hope the bug doesn't in the interim mutate too far away from the vaccine target.
  #180  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:09 AM
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Panicking will do no good at any time. If you are really concerned acquire sufficient bottled water, food, and other items to see you through 2 weeks so if you need to hunker down (which I think is highly unlikely) you'll be able to do so in relative comfort, or at least not too much discomfort. Wash your hands, try to get sufficient rest and eat properly and that's about as much as you, as an individual, can do.
Excellent advice. Thank you much, Broomstick.

P.S. I think you may have made a mistake with the quoting function. I never posted some of the text you seem to have attributed to me. It was some text contiaining "pithily". I never use that word. Heh Heh.

Last edited by Charlie Wayne; 01-27-2020 at 09:11 AM.
  #181  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:20 AM
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Well, I am not perfect. If I mis-attributed a quote then my apologies to all involved.
  #182  
Old 01-27-2020, 10:00 AM
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My company has a studio in China (as well as other places in the world), and sent out a notice today that all travel to and from China has been suspended.
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Old 01-27-2020, 11:53 AM
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Mongolia closed their border today.
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Old 01-27-2020, 12:19 PM
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The State Health Department has cleared me to return to work based on my history. No testing recommended at this time.
  #185  
Old 01-27-2020, 12:58 PM
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Wait, so Mongolia is trying to keep the Chinese from entering their country? This sounds like the setup for an episode of South Park or something.

Interesting comparison of the progression of SARS and Coronavirus. The latter seems to have spun up more slowly than SARS, but those charts paint a rather unsettling trajectory...
  #186  
Old 01-27-2020, 03:05 PM
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Story today at Raw Story (re-printed from Kaiser Health News but stupidly, as is common at Raw Story articles, doesn't have a link to the source that I could find):

Something far deadlier than the Wuhan virus already lurks near you

TL;DR: Influenza is wide-spread. It's here. It kills a lot more people.

Some excerpts:
Quote:
Influenza rarely gets this sort of attention, even though it kills more Americans each year than any other virus, said Dr. Peter Hotez, a professor of pediatrics, molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston.

Influenza has already sickened at least 13 million Americans this winter, hospitalizing 120,000 and killing 6,600, according to the CDC. And flu season hasn’t even peaked. In a bad year, the flu kills up to 61,000 Americans.

. . .

If Americans aren’t afraid of the flu, perhaps that’s because they are inured to yearly warnings. For them, the flu is old news. Yet viruses named after foreign places — such as Ebola, Zika and Wuhan — inspire terror.

“Familiarity breeds indifference,” Schaffner said. “Because it’s new, it’s mysterious and comes from an exotic place, the coronavirus creates anxiety.”

. . .

“We should rename influenza; call it XZ-47 virus, or something scarier,” said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.

Measles in the Democratic Republic of Congo has killed 5,000 people in the past year — more than twice as many as Ebola. Yet UNICEF officials have noted that the measles, which many Americans no longer fear, has gotten little attention. Nearly all the measles victims were children under 5.
ETA: Article also notes that less than half of Americans are getting their flu shots.

Last edited by Senegoid; 01-27-2020 at 03:09 PM.
  #187  
Old 01-27-2020, 03:26 PM
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Story today at Raw Story (re-printed from Kaiser Health News but stupidly, as is common at Raw Story articles, doesn't have a link to the source that I could find):

Something far deadlier than the Wuhan virus already lurks near you

TL;DR: Influenza is wide-spread. It's here. It kills a lot more people.

Some excerpts:


ETA: Article also notes that less than half of Americans are getting their flu shots.
I think the fear with these new items is that they are less known and seem less "controlled." Epidemic Hollywood movies probably don't help.

In the average person's mind, there is a chance that one of these new "exotic" flues will spread like wildfire across the world, kill like 5% of the population and no one is safe. More like the Spanish flu.

The regular Flu on the other hand is something we do every year and is the devil we know. I also have the impression (correct or not), that most flu deaths are really just older folks that were not doing so well to begin with and were finally "pushed over the edge."
  #188  
Old 01-27-2020, 07:02 PM
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I don't like the fact that there has been very little news and no real new numbers all day today. It's nearly 24 hours since I've seen any real updated info on infections confirmed or how many have died.
  #189  
Old 01-27-2020, 07:38 PM
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I guess I'm getting a bit touchy because so much of the discussion on other forums, youtube comments etc, is people actually getting angry that the Chinese government is acting too slowly, or hiding information or whatever. So essentially they are guessing about what is happening, based on their conception of China, then their own guess is making them angry.

I'm not suggesting anyone just take the government's word at face value. I don't.
Not only do I not think they're acting too slowly I'm on record as saying the opposite. They (the Chinese government) are able to cut through any red tape or laws that get in their way.

Hell, it became a political freak-show when anyone suggested we quarantine medical people for a couple of weeks after returning from an Ebola epidemic mission.

We're screwed if we need to shut down anything bigger than a hot dog stand.
  #190  
Old 01-27-2020, 07:41 PM
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The map posted by blue infinity has been updated per Snowboarder Bo's request.

2997 cases. 82 deaths.

Last edited by steatopygia; 01-27-2020 at 07:42 PM.
  #191  
Old 01-27-2020, 07:49 PM
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2927 cases.

Last edited by steatopygia; 01-27-2020 at 07:50 PM.
  #192  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:49 PM
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Snowboarder Bo, I don't think most people realize that 1) it's Chinese New Year and everyone takes this off, 2) up to 1/3 of the Chinese entire population typically travels out of their normal town during this period, 2) the city of Wuhan is locked down with zero public transit, roads essentially shut to private vehicles, 3) anyone with a fever or cough is scared to death they have nCOV and flooding the hospitals (there are very few private medical facilities in China), 4) government itself is trying to get a handle on a situation that is changing rapidly, 5) the number 2 political leader in China is in Wuhan now, 6) head of WHO is meeting in Beijing now, 7) military health personnel are going in to help, etc.

Think New Orleans in the Katrina aftermath or D-Day, it's simply beyond real time monitoring that the interwebs kinda set the expectation for but doesn't exist outside of Hollywood.

@machine elf, no idea where your graph came from but doesn't pass the smell test to my experience with SARS. There is always more that could be done but to my rookie eyes, China is way ahead of where they were at this point during SARS. Probably a month if not months ahead in identifying and taking action that this is a serious health issue.
  #193  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:52 PM
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Not only do I not think they're acting too slowly I'm on record as saying the opposite. They (the Chinese government) are able to cut through any red tape or laws that get in their way.
Think of it this way, China has effectively blockaded Hunan province (a "state" in the US) with a population of 58M vs most populous US state of California with ~40M.
  #194  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:53 PM
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BIG JUMP

4474 cases, 107 deaths

Still primarily confined to China.

Last edited by steatopygia; 01-27-2020 at 09:54 PM.
  #195  
Old 01-27-2020, 11:02 PM
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The AP is reporting "at least" 106 dead. New cases raised the total diagnosed infections to 4,515.

That's almost double the infections in the last 24 hours.
  #196  
Old 01-27-2020, 11:55 PM
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Snowboarder Bo, please note this from the AP report: So far, the new coronavirus doesn’t seem to spread as easily among people as SARS or influenza. Most of the cases so far that spread between people were of family members and health workers who had contact with patients. That suggests the new virus isn’t well adapted to infect people.
  #197  
Old 01-28-2020, 06:52 AM
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Hell, it became a political freak-show when anyone suggested we quarantine medical people for a couple of weeks after returning from an Ebola epidemic mission.
I had some issues with that because many of the proposed measures were, in my opinion, over-reactions to the situation. Ebola is not airborne and the majority of new infections come from direct contact with dead, the rest from close contact with the ill and/or their bodily fluids. This is a problem in rural Africa where protective equipment may be difficult to obtain, less so in the west. The medical people did not need to be locked into isolation wards, staying at home for a time period and being observed would be entirely adequate.

This is in contrast to the Wuhan virus, or SARS, or MERS, or flu or measles or the common cold which all can spread via the air. People who might be contagious need to be kept much more apart from others until cleared as safe for an effective quarantine.
  #198  
Old 01-28-2020, 07:00 AM
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There is now a case in Germany and the way it came about is kind of worrying (if the radio news is to believed).

This guy in Bavaria caught it from a business contact from Shanghai (who only got symptoms on her way back to China). Thing is that this person hadn't been to Wuhan, but a family member had been.

This way it seems it van spread fairly quickly before anyone notices.

On the good side, this German guy seems to be doing well and should be fine.

Verstuurd vanaf mijn moto g(6) met Tapatalk
  #199  
Old 01-28-2020, 01:55 PM
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Well, over the weekend my in-laws (who are from China but live here with us in the States) went into full-blown panic mode, fueled by stuff their friends are forwarding around on Weibo and WeChat. Some of the highlights:

- People are dropping in the streets by the thousands. The real reason for closing all of the cities is to keep this news from leaking out.
- It is a biological weapon that was released from a lab, possibly on purpose.
- It's not a single virus, but a combination of several viruses, so it can't be vaccinated against.
- The infection is absorbed through the eyes.

They spent all day Sunday driving around and buying up boxes of dust masks and swimming goggles. The dust masks (which had to have some specific kind of rating) sound like they are getting hard to find even here in the US.

Last edited by Jet Jaguar; 01-28-2020 at 01:56 PM.
  #200  
Old 01-28-2020, 01:59 PM
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- The infection is absorbed through the eyes.

They spent all day Sunday driving around and buying up boxes of dust masks and swimming goggles. The dust masks (which had to have some specific kind of rating) sound like they are getting hard to find even here in the US.
This last seems to be true. I think it was the Irish teacher that was interviewed by Channel 4 who said that he had swimming goggles because it can be communicated through the eyes. IIRC, there was a doctor who got infected while treating people and they determined that he contracted the infection through his eyes because they were the only thing not protected.
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