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  #201  
Old 01-28-2020, 02:07 PM
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Where I work we had our first inappropriate transfer due to overreaction by the initial provider. The patient had been traveling in Asia and presented with respiratory symptoms. They unfortunately saw an outside provider whose grasp of geography is so weak that they're apparently unaware that there are countries in Asia besides China. So they transferred the patient to us for further evaluation. The doc who saw them at our institution got all gowned up in isolation equipment to interview the patient - and discovered that they had been nowhere near the danger area. Patient has a cold, no further testing necessary, recommend standard symptomatic management. Sigh. I anticipate this will not be the only such patient.
  #202  
Old 01-28-2020, 02:16 PM
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This last seems to be true. I think it was the Irish teacher that was interviewed by Channel 4 who said that he had swimming goggles because it can be communicated through the eyes. IIRC, there was a doctor who got infected while treating people and they determined that he contracted the infection through his eyes because they were the only thing not protected.
The "through his eyes" doesn't mean that's the primary way the disease is transmitted. It's likely through transfer to any mucous membrane. I seem to remember a study that showed people touch their own faces an average of 24 times an hour and about 4 of those touches are around the eyes. However, around half the touches are to mucosal areas. In the cited case above, the only exposed mucosal area was the eyes.

Found it- here's a summary of the study
  #203  
Old 01-28-2020, 02:20 PM
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ETA: Geez, how many times am I going to get ninja'd?

Yep the eyes are a very common route for many respiratory infections, maybe even higher risk than the mouth.
People constantly rub their eyes and tear ducts drain into the nasal passage.

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Originally Posted by Jet Jaguar
They spent all day Sunday driving around and buying up boxes of dust masks and swimming goggles. The dust masks (which had to have some specific kind of rating) sound like they are getting hard to find even here in the US.
Yes masks are already being rationed here (not to alarm your family even more; it's just when a population of 1.3 billion is being told to wear masks to go outside, that's a pretty big demand. So pharmacies are limiting 5 masks per customer per day).

Regarding the dust masks, did the rating include blocking pathogens / fluids? Because even a top-notch $30 professional dust or pollution mask may not do this because it's not their usual function.
Cheapo surgical masks may give better protection in many cases.

Last edited by Mijin; 01-28-2020 at 02:21 PM.
  #204  
Old 01-28-2020, 02:32 PM
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Regarding the dust masks, did the rating include blocking pathogens / fluids?
Nope, not at all. They're N95 dust masks, which block fine dust but not something as small as a virus. But my in-laws are frightened beyond the point of reason. They say their friends told them to get these, and they wouldn't lie to them so it must be true.
  #205  
Old 01-28-2020, 03:03 PM
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FWIW you’re not needing to filter so small as a virus. You just need to filter the droplets that contain the viruses.
  #206  
Old 01-28-2020, 05:07 PM
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Australian scientists at Melbourne's Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity on Tuesday became the world's first scientific lab outside of China to recreate the virus.

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Dr Catton, who is also the pathologist supervising at The Doherty Institute, said Australian scientific facilities were well prepared to deal with outbreaks like the coronavirus.

"This virus qualifies as a three out of four, so it's a level three virus and that's based off our understanding of SARS (sudden acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome), which are its close cousins," Dr Catton said.

"It's dangerous, it does kill some people, but it hasn't got the lethality that viruses like Ebola do."

But he said early diagnosis of a disease outbreak like the coronavirus was important because it gave health authorities around the world a better chance of containing its spread or, at the least, its severity.

...


At this stage, coronavirus does not have a death rate as high as SARS.

"SARS we know had a death rate — a mortality rate — of about 10 per cent. This [coronavirus] appears to be 3 per cent; my personal opinion is it will turn out to be lower than that," Dr Catton said.

Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said in Australia there has been no known human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus.

"There is no cause for concern in the Australian public, there is no human to human transmission of this virus," he said.

"It's important to note because we had some media [ask] about masks today; there is no need for the Australian public to wear masks."

Those who have the illness are being kept in isolation.

All Australian-based patients are in stable conditions.
  #207  
Old 01-28-2020, 05:14 PM
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penultima thule, a quote from your post:

Quote:
Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said in Australia there has been no known human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus.

"There is no cause for concern in the Australian public, there is no human to human transmission of this virus," he said.
Does anyone know what that means? How are thousands getting sick if there is no human to human transmission?

I know that it probably jumped from another species, but it didn't jump to thousands of people at once?
  #208  
Old 01-28-2020, 05:28 PM
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It sounds like what he means is that there's been no human to human transmission in Australia. The current cases were contracted in China?
  #209  
Old 01-28-2020, 05:54 PM
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It sounds like what he means is that there's been no human to human transmission in Australia. The current cases were contracted in China?
I agree. In Germany, there has apparently been human-to-human transmission within the country. In Australia, no human-to-human transmission within the country has been found to have occurred.

For those who are still panicky, my advice (IANAD) is:

Be/get vaccinated for the flu (it won't protect you from this virus, but if you are already infected by the flu, your immune system will be less able to fight this virus)
Get 7-9 hours of sleep each day
Eat a balanced diet with plenty of fruits and vegetables
Stay well hydrated
Wash your hands often throughout the day

TLDR- Cultivate a healthy, robust immune system

If you are already sick or have a compromised immune system, then some of the other precautions (minimal exposure to other people, wearing gloves, a mask, and glasses to prevent the all to human habit of touching everything around us and then shoving our fingers into our eyes or mouth) are probably warranted.

Last edited by peccavi; 01-28-2020 at 05:54 PM.
  #210  
Old 01-28-2020, 06:57 PM
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I just heard on the news that an orchestra from Shanghai (which is hundreds of miles from Wuhan) is scheduled to perform at a school in my region, and authorities are telling people, primarily assuring parents and children, that there is nothing to worry about WRT this.
  #211  
Old 01-28-2020, 07:17 PM
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Per blue infinity's excellent source;

cases 5578
deaths 131

Still seems contained.
  #212  
Old 01-28-2020, 07:31 PM
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I just heard on the news that an orchestra from Shanghai (which is hundreds of miles from Wuhan) is scheduled to perform at a school in my region, and authorities are telling people, primarily assuring parents and children, that there is nothing to worry about WRT this.
With high speed rail, "hundreds of miles" is meaningless - the two cities might as well be next door. But with that being said, the numbers still aren't high enough to worry me. I have to assume exponentially higher numbers of people die from the flu every week.
  #213  
Old 01-28-2020, 07:40 PM
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- The infection is absorbed through the eyes.
This one is no duh.

One of the lessons learned from SARS (and from the common cold for that matter), is that one common person to person contact is to shake hands, touch an elevator button, grab a handrail, etc, and THEN rub your nose or eyes.

Hand sanitizers and washing your hands frequently can cut down on even catching the common cold.

From my SARS experience, I never touch an elevator button with my finger. Usually a knuckle on my left hand. During the SARS outbreak, most people started pressing elevator buttons with their keys.
  #214  
Old 01-28-2020, 07:41 PM
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Australian scientists at Melbourne's Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity on Tuesday became the world's first scientific lab outside of China to recreate the virus.
Go them!

(same institute the friend I was referencing upthread works for. reflected glory ftw )
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  #215  
Old 01-28-2020, 07:45 PM
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Hong Kong has partially shut it's border with China. HK is stopping the "commuter" transportation of subways, trains and high speed ferries. Sucks if you live in Shenzhen and work in HK. It will stop the thousands of people that cross the border each day to shop in HK, carry the goods back across the border for resell. There are loads of folks that do this all day long to buy things at the border stops that are either cheaper or guaranteed to be genuine (like baby formula owing to a past scandal).

Person to person anecdotally seems to be generally in cases of prolonged contact (within the family members living together, a tour bus driver, etc).
  #216  
Old 01-28-2020, 07:46 PM
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Welp, it's the end times.
  #217  
Old 01-28-2020, 07:56 PM
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... and youse guys are worried about fundamentalist Islam?
  #218  
Old 01-28-2020, 09:33 PM
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BTW, here's a piece in the NY Times by a doctor who lived in China with her family during SARS. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/o...gtype=Homepage

Long story short, wash your hands frequently.
  #219  
Old 01-29-2020, 02:27 AM
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I thought the HIV virus was supposed to do that. What, that didn't work? Now God is trying again?
  #220  
Old 01-29-2020, 05:02 AM
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Per blue infinity's excellent source;

cases 5578
deaths 131

Still seems contained.
Also a death rate of 2.3% rather than 3% - contrary to fears of an increase, this would be consistent with more of the less serious infections being found. Of course that could change, and no doubt those who have severe illness but recover are miserable and I don't want to trivialize their suffering, but longer that rate stays the low the more encouraged I am.
  #221  
Old 01-29-2020, 06:14 AM
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Mijin, where is there news that the government has extended the CNY holiday for factories? I see the standard holiday has been extended to 2 Feb, but factories are typically shut for a 10-15 day period over Chinese New Year, while the official CNY holiday is only 5 days (right?).
Among my friends, the time off work is time leading up to the new year. Extending the holiday more than a few days after would be unusual. Among our suppliers, the workers are expected to make up the time lost in holidays by working weekends. Nobody takes a 15 day period. Perhaps 15 days is big companies or the self-employed or something?
  #222  
Old 01-29-2020, 07:33 AM
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I've never been into handshaking, usually offering up a fist bump to someone who wants to shake. Lately I've been even more anti-handshaking. Shake my hand and I'm then going to wanna wash my hands.

So, yesterday I was already in a bad mood when a client at work aggressively wanted to shake. I walk up to her while perusing some paperwork, and she thrusts out her hand, which I pointedly ignore.

I begin answering the question she needed answered, all the while ignoring the hand, which she kept rigidly extended. Eventually she said, "you're not going to shake my hand?" By now I was kind of pissed off, so I answered, "extra quick on the uptake, today?!"
  #223  
Old 01-29-2020, 08:53 AM
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The virus is called 2019-nCoV.

I wonder how long until the conspiracy folk claim that it was developed by Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, (Danish Defence Intelligence Service) and smuggled into China via workers for Fuji Electric. Ergo, it's official name should be ...

2019-nCoVfefe

Turns out we were just being warned 2 1/2 years in advance.
  #224  
Old 01-29-2020, 09:05 AM
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I've never been into handshaking, usually offering up a fist bump to someone who wants to shake. Lately I've been even more anti-handshaking. Shake my hand and I'm then going to wanna wash my hands.

So, yesterday I was already in a bad mood when a client at work aggressively wanted to shake. I walk up to her while perusing some paperwork, and she thrusts out her hand, which I pointedly ignore.

I begin answering the question she needed answered, all the while ignoring the hand, which she kept rigidly extended. Eventually she said, "you're not going to shake my hand?" By now I was kind of pissed off, so I answered, "extra quick on the uptake, today?!"
Handshaking is a standard social gesture in the West, and refusing a handshake would be taken by most people as a none too subtle FU.

If you don't shake hands for hygiene reasons, that's fine, I think it's best to inform the other person of that, otherwise...yeah IMO it's rude behaviour.
  #225  
Old 01-29-2020, 09:30 AM
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Also a death rate of 2.3% rather than 3% - contrary to fears of an increase, this would be consistent with more of the less serious infections being found. Of course that could change, and no doubt those who have severe illness but recover are miserable and I don't want to trivialize their suffering, but longer that rate stays the low the more encouraged I am.
I have to wonder how many cases are never diagnosed because they are not serious enough to require medical intervention. It could be anywhere from 10% to 90% without doing some mass sampling we may never know. also don't think they know much about the transmission rate.
  #226  
Old 01-29-2020, 09:41 AM
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Handshaking is a standard social gesture in the West, and refusing a handshake would be taken by most people as a none too subtle FU.

If you don't shake hands for hygiene reasons, that's fine, I think it's best to inform the other person of that, otherwise...yeah IMO it's rude behaviour.
If she held up her hand, then put it back down, then later asked, I would have explained my POV. She stood like a statue with her hand out while I talked for a few minutes. That's passive/aggressive bullshit IMO and so fuck her.

My reason isn't pure hygiene, though it is in part. I just don't want to touch a stranger. That may be weird, but it I'm perfectly happy. And in the West, my behavior is rude.
  #227  
Old 01-29-2020, 09:54 AM
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Is it just me, or does it seem that some “new” disease comes out of China every couple years or so?
  #228  
Old 01-29-2020, 09:56 AM
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Is it just me, or does it seem that some “new” disease comes out of China every couple years or so?
I think a population of 1.4(?) billion might have an impact on that.
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Old 01-29-2020, 10:06 AM
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Is it just me, or does it seem that some “new” disease comes out of China every couple years or so?
New strains of flu come out of that part of the world all the time. Every year, in fact. Some are more aggressive than others.
  #230  
Old 01-29-2020, 10:12 AM
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I think a population of 1.4(?) billion might have an impact on that.
Yes I think your right. It is the incredibly dense population. There are simply too many people and food markets for the government to control safety...

Last edited by Erren; 01-29-2020 at 10:13 AM.
  #231  
Old 01-29-2020, 10:32 AM
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Erren has a point, IMHO. It's likely a matter of media coverage and perceptual biases. But consider: When's the last time an illness originating in, say, India (1.3 billion) got this kind of media coverage?

I may safely assume plenty of flu strains start in India, yes? As well as the U.S., Western Europe, Russia, South America, Africa, etc.?
  #232  
Old 01-29-2020, 11:15 AM
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If she held up her hand, then put it back down, then later asked, I would have explained my POV. She stood like a statue with her hand out while I talked for a few minutes. That's passive/aggressive bullshit IMO and so fuck her.
If I were her, I would have put my hand down and possibly asked why you refused my handshake. But I wouldn't consider her continuing to hold out her hand passive-aggressive; she may just have been in shock. Ignoring a handshake and saying nothing is barely above turning your back on someone while they are mid-sentence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bordelond
It's likely a matter of media coverage and perceptual biases. But consider: When's the last time an illness originating in, say, India (1.3 billion) got this kind of media coverage?

I may safely assume plenty of flu strains start in India, yes? As well as the U.S., Western Europe, Russia, South America, Africa, etc.?
Again, the reason why this virus is getting so much media coverage is that it is new to humans. A virus that is new to humans might just end up with a similar death toll to seasonal influenza (which is quite high, but as a society it seems we're used to it). It might get wiped out completely.
Or it might be more virulent, more contagious, have unknown chronic effects and spread around the globe.

And it is too soon to say if this is the case for 2019-nCOV. Because with novel viruses, their characteristics often change dramatically in the first few months. The chance of a sudden increase in virulence is much higher than with viruses that have been adapting alongside humans for thousands of years.

Last edited by Mijin; 01-29-2020 at 11:17 AM.
  #233  
Old 01-29-2020, 11:39 AM
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Again, the reason why this virus is getting so much media coverage is that it is new to humans.
This just changes the parameters of Erren's point slightly: When's the last time a 'new to humans' virus originating in India made news?

IOW, the 'populous country' explanation seems to be incomplete to the layman. Or else when similar things happen in India, they are covered differently by the international press. From an academic perspective, I'm sure that the apparent frequency of 'new to humans' virus origination in China is a very complicated thing with many vectors that defies simple explanation.
  #234  
Old 01-29-2020, 11:40 AM
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. . . Does anyone know what that means? How are thousands getting sick if there is no human to human transmission?

I know that it probably jumped from another species, but it didn't jump to thousands of people at once?
There's speculation it might be coming from "wildlife markets", where hunted or snared meat is sold. Here's a post from TYWKIWDBI - an intermittent blog.
  #235  
Old 01-29-2020, 12:29 PM
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Again, the reason why this virus is getting so much media coverage is that it is new to humans.
I saw an article yesterday that referred to it as the Coronavirus and said it was the same virus as SARS from several years ago.

Is that possibly true? I didn't understand how it could be a new virus if it really is the same one responsible for the SARS outbreak several years ago.
  #236  
Old 01-29-2020, 12:33 PM
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When's the last time a 'new to humans' virus originating in India made news?
Not recently.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...-caught-it-ca/

India doesn't seem to be a source of new strains for a variety of reason, not all of them very clear.
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Old 01-29-2020, 12:39 PM
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This just changes the parameters of Erren's point slightly: When's the last time a 'new to humans' virus originating in India made news?
From googling, I can't find any examples of any.
If you look at the map on this link, it seems India has been quite fortunate in terms of newly emerging viruses.
There was an outbreak of Nipah virus in 2018, but that was a new outbreak of a virus first seen in Malaysia in 1998.

The discovery of a virus that is thought to be new to humans does not happen very frequently, so the question of why the ones from India don't get much press is perhaps based on a misconception.
  #238  
Old 01-29-2020, 12:48 PM
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But with that being said, the numbers still aren't high enough to worry me. I have to assume exponentially higher numbers of people die from the flu every week.
This. 8800 died in the US this year alone from the normal flu. Why should we be worried when only 131 people have died world-wide?

That being said, I'm flying to Thailand on Saturday, so wish me luck!
  #239  
Old 01-29-2020, 12:51 PM
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The discovery of a virus that is thought to be new to humans does not happen very frequently, so the question of why the ones from India don't get much press is perhaps based on a misconception.
India was only invoked to challenge the "China gets these new viruses because it has 1.4 billion people" point raised above. The overall complexity of the issue is certainly acknowledged.
  #240  
Old 01-29-2020, 12:56 PM
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Regarding the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS, aka 'the camel flu') that's been referred to several times upthread ... I had never even heard of that virus until reading this thread.

Apparently, there have been three outbreaks** of this virus since 2012. Still, news coverage of these outbreaks completely escaped my attention.


** So ... what qualifies as an 'outbreak' anyway? Does a strain of influenza 'outbreak' every year in the U.S. and kill ~8,000 people?
  #241  
Old 01-29-2020, 12:57 PM
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I didn't understand how it could be a new virus if it really is the same one responsible for the SARS outbreak several years ago.
It's the 'same as SARS' in the same way that Swine Flu is the same as Bird Flu.

They're two different representatives of the same family. The new one is a novel mutation, or at least one not seen in humans before, but the class of coronaviruses aren't knew - a lot of colds are caused by coronaviruses, too.
  #242  
Old 01-29-2020, 01:09 PM
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I saw an article yesterday that referred to it as the Coronavirus and said it was the same virus as SARS from several years ago.

Is that possibly true? I didn't understand how it could be a new virus if it really is the same one responsible for the SARS outbreak several years ago.
It's not the same as SARS, but it's related. They're both in a family of viruses called Coronavirus. Another in that family made the news several of years ago. It's called MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). As it's name suggests, it did not originate in China.

Anyway, we shouldn't be calling this one Coronavirus, since that's the name of a family of viruses. Unfortunately, it's probably too late to change that now. Way too many news reports are using that name. The name 2019-nCoV is what the specialists are calling it, but that doesn't exactly roll off the tongue. It's probably best to call it Wuhan virus.
  #243  
Old 01-29-2020, 02:01 PM
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Anyway, we shouldn't be calling this one Coronavirus, since that's the name of a family of viruses. Unfortunately, it's probably too late to change that now. Way too many news reports are using that name. The name 2019-nCoV is what the specialists are calling it, but that doesn't exactly roll off the tongue. It's probably best to call it Wuhan virus.
I vote for Corona-chan.
  #244  
Old 01-29-2020, 02:37 PM
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Awwww aren't you cute, spreading a 4chan meme like that!
  #245  
Old 01-29-2020, 05:41 PM
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I saw an article yesterday that referred to it as the Coronavirus and said it was the same virus as SARS from several years ago.

Is that possibly true? I didn't understand how it could be a new virus if it really is the same one responsible for the SARS outbreak several years ago.
No, Charlie, it is not the same virus.

Viruses come in "families". There's the influenza family (cause flu), the rhinovirus family (cause upper respiratory infrections), and many others. One of the virus families is "Coronavirus". SARS and this new virus are from the same family, but they are not the same exact virus.

The virus that causes the disease severe acute respiratory syndrome or SARS is named SARS-CoV

The related virus that causes the disease middle east respiratory syndrome or MERS is named MERS-CoV

This new virus is named 2019-nCoV. It shares 70% of its genetic information with SARS-CoV, but the remaining 30% is different. It's not the same virus.

Either someone published/broadcast misinformation (which is possible) or you misheard the information (which is also possible). Among other things, this new virus has (based on current information) a death rate of 2.5-3% but SARS-CoV has a death rate around 10%.
  #246  
Old 01-29-2020, 05:47 PM
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This. 8800 died in the US this year alone from the normal flu. Why should we be worried when only 131 people have died world-wide?
Because, apparently, people infected with this virus can spread it before symptoms show, it's fairly contagious, and it has a fatality rate comparable to the 1918 Flu that turned into a world-wide pandemic and killed a lot of people in absolute numbers even if the percentage of sick people who died was under 3%. Right now absolute numbers of deceased people are small and we all hope it stays that way, but potentially it could become a big problem if the virus continues to spread.

As an example, if, hypothetically, everyone in China got this new virus at current mortality rates the expected death toll would be around 40 million. Naw, don't really want to see that. Much better if we can avoid that.

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That being said, I'm flying to Thailand on Saturday, so wish me luck!
Luck!

Also - bring sanitizing wipes for your airplane seat rests, tray, and other things you'll be touching and wash your hands frequently. Which are good practices regardless.
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Old 01-29-2020, 05:59 PM
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Seen this movie too many times. If this thing is just SARS, H1N1, Mad Cow, Ebola, etc. all over again ... I'll be totally safe.
Bear in mind that these epidemics ended up not being a big deal because some very smart people saw it a potentially a big deal and worked massive overtime to prevent it from becoming a big deal.

The Spanish Avian flu of 1918 killed literally millions of people worldwide and it scarcely registered a blip because of some other big war going on at the time.
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Old 01-29-2020, 06:05 PM
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Among my friends, the time off work is time leading up to the new year. Extending the holiday more than a few days after would be unusual. Among our suppliers, the workers are expected to make up the time lost in holidays by working weekends. Nobody takes a 15 day period. Perhaps 15 days is big companies or the self-employed or something?
Any major factory with a large percentage of migrant line workers will be shut for a minimum of 10 days. I expect there are Chinese labor laws to this effect but I'm not sure. Small operations may be able to do just the standard holiday with weekend switching, but for those above the radar, they will be shut 10-15 days.
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Old 01-29-2020, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Broomstick View Post
Because, apparently, people infected with this virus can spread it before symptoms show, it's fairly contagious, and it has a fatality rate comparable to the 1918 Flu that turned into a world-wide pandemic and killed a lot of people in absolute numbers even if the percentage of sick people who died was under 3%.
Yeah. No. From Wikipedia:

The global mortality rate from the 1918–1919 pandemic is not known, but an estimated 10% to 20% of those who were infected died.

2-3% fatality rate is just about the same as 10-20%.
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Old 01-29-2020, 07:10 PM
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Hmmm.... the information I googled indicated 3% for the 1918 pandemic. OK, so there's some disagreement. In any case, it's an estimate. My calculations based on 3% and today's population still hold, though. If this gets loose it's still millions dead. So good thing there are people working to keep it from spreading.
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