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Old 01-27-2020, 12:34 PM
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Is it Biden versus Bernie?


It is certainly looking that way both in the RCP betting odds and the 538 model. The two are evenly matched and no one else looks like having a serious chance.

So will this race become a straight contest between the two say after Super Tuesday? Obviously the candidate most likely to challenge them is Warren and the question is whether she will have the means to continue if she keeps losing primaries and whether there will be pressure on her from the left to make it a straight contest.

Who would win a straight contest? I have to think Biden is the favorite. Bernie has a lot of enthusiasm but I also suspect there is a ceiling to his support of around 40% and it's hard to win a two-person race with that. Plus if it does become Biden vs Bernie there will be an steady stream of mainstream Democrats who endorse Biden which cumulatively will help him. On the whole I think it will be a repeat of 2016; if anything Biden is a better campaigner than Hillary.
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Old 01-27-2020, 01:31 PM
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It’s a bit too early to speculate as Buttigieg or Warren could surprise in IA and change the narrative immediately a week from today.

But, if it comes down to Bernie vs anyone, the anyone will win. Bernie has got a damn hard ceiling of #NeverBernie people and as Hillary has mentioned, none of his Congressional colleagues like him. Endorsements will flow like cheap champagne on NYE if it’s a Bernie vs Biden race. A lot of that money that Buttigieg and Warren have been raising would start flowing to Biden.

Plus the spotlight will be on Bernie and I don’t think Bernie will like it one bit. Bernie’s life before 40 isn’t a story that will cause thousands of new voters to flock to him.

Biden may not be a better campaigner than Hillary, but we’ve all learned not to just handle Bernie with kid gloves this time around. Bernie is stubborn as hell and won’t quit the race even if he falls hopelessly behind in the delegate count. He’s got his email list and they’ll keep donating. The conspiracy theories will fly everywhere.
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Old 01-27-2020, 02:12 PM
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Well, to be fair, Trump wasn't getting insider support all the way up to the GOP convention. And his support ceiling has never been more than around 40%. And there was an active #NeverTrump movement at the time as well.

The big difference, as I see it, is that the GOP did not really have a front-runner to challenge Trump in the primaries. Although Bush was the anointed one, he never really caught on. So there wasn't a Biden like figure on that side.
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Old 01-27-2020, 02:19 PM
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Well, to be fair, Trump wasn't getting insider support all the way up to the GOP convention. And his support ceiling has never been more than around 40%. And there was an active #NeverTrump movement at the time as well.

The big difference, as I see it, is that the GOP did not really have a front-runner to challenge Trump in the primaries. Although Bush was the anointed one, he never really caught on. So there wasn't a Biden like figure on that side.
The main difference is the primary rules. The Republicans have a lot of winner take all and winner take most states so Trump was able to steamroll in the primaries and rack up delegates.
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  #5  
Old 01-27-2020, 02:41 PM
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Is it Biden versus Bernie?
It's sure starting to look that way, isn't it?

At this point, it already looks like a 2.5-person race: Biden and Bernie, with Warren hanging on by her fingernails and needing a win in Iowa to stay alive. Bernie's probably winning NH no matter what happens in Iowa, and Biden's going to win SC no matter what happens in IA/NH, and both have the popular support and resources to keep going awhile.

Warren's got the money to keep going to Super Tuesday, but if she doesn't win an early primary (and that really means Iowa), her popular support is going to diminish.

Klobuchar's going nowhere unless she wins Iowa. Buttigieg's going nowhere even if he wins Iowa.
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Old 01-27-2020, 03:35 PM
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I agree that Warren is the only one who can plausibly spring a surprise. The others are in single digits nationally, which just seems too far back at this stage even if they pull off a surprise win somewhere.

But even if Warren recovers it will be hard for her to win a three-way race with Biden and Bernie; I think Biden wins that too though perhaps only after a long slog.

What Warren really wanted was to knock Bernie out early and make it a two-way with Biden which would have been difficult for him. A few months back, especially after Bernie's heart attack, that looked plausible. Right now it looks like Bernie is set for the long haul.

So to summarize:
Biden vs Bernie: Biden wins quite easily
Biden vs Bernie vs Warren: Biden wins but not easily
Biden vs Warren: Warren has the edge.

The last one doesn't seem likely, so bottom line: things are looking pretty good for Biden.
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Old 01-27-2020, 03:49 PM
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It's sure starting to look that way, isn't it?

At this point, it already looks like a 2.5-person race: Biden and Bernie, with Warren hanging on by her fingernails and needing a win in Iowa to stay alive. Bernie's probably winning NH no matter what happens in Iowa, and Biden's going to win SC no matter what happens in IA/NH, and both have the popular support and resources to keep going awhile.

Warren's got the money to keep going to Super Tuesday, but if she doesn't win an early primary (and that really means Iowa), her popular support is going to diminish.

Klobuchar's going nowhere unless she wins Iowa. Buttigieg's going nowhere even if he wins Iowa.
Warren's heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time, and I think her attacks on Bernie have backfired, the damage likely permanent.

I like Klobuchar, but she just doesn't have that special 'it' factor that people are looking for right now, and I am increasingly wondering if the same problem won't eventually affect Joe Biden as well. We're at one of those interesting crossroads in history, a moment with a clear 'before' and 'after.' In 1858-59, the conventional wisdom would have suggested that Stephen A. Douglas was a safer bet to win the approaching election than that tall Springfield lawyer who sported a funny top hat. But we know how that turned out. Not that I'm suggesting that we're on the eve of a Civil War or that Bernie Sanders is Abe Lincoln. The point is, we're in one of those moments when voters have a sense of urgency, a sense that they want to break from the politics of normal, and like it or not, wise or not, safe or not, that seems to be how our politics are tilted at the moment. This sort of dynamic favors a Bernie Sanders type candidate over a Joe Biden.

Last edited by asahi; 01-27-2020 at 03:50 PM.
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Old 01-27-2020, 04:18 PM
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Warren seems to be picking up a lot of endorsements here in Iowa and there was a ton of excitement at her rally last night here in CR. Place was packed out and she was dynamic.

Certainly doesn’t feel like a Bernie vs Biden race here.
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Old 01-27-2020, 04:30 PM
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Warren's heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time, and I think her attacks on Bernie have backfired, the damage likely permanent.
I still don't understand why she never took a moment during any of the debates to draw a comparison/contrast between her and Biden on the 2005 Bankruptcy Act. Getting into this 'Bernie doesn't believe a woman can win' bit was clumsy by itself, but instead of pointing out that Biden's owned by the big-money boys? I'd been waiting for that for months, and...nothing.
Quote:
We're at one of those interesting crossroads in history, a moment with a clear 'before' and 'after.' In 1858-59, the conventional wisdom would have suggested that Stephen A. Douglas was a safer bet to win the approaching election than that tall Springfield lawyer who sported a funny top hat. But we know how that turned out. Not that I'm suggesting that we're on the eve of a Civil War or that Bernie Sanders is Abe Lincoln. The point is, we're in one of those moments when voters have a sense of urgency, a sense that they want to break from the politics of normal, and like it or not, wise or not, safe or not, that seems to be how our politics are tilted at the moment. This sort of dynamic favors a Bernie Sanders type candidate over a Joe Biden.
I think you're right, but I also think that's why it's important that the Dems pass a metric ton of serious legislation in 2021-22. They need to deal with (1) climate change, (2) democracy restoration, and (3) improving people's lives in tangible ways.

The need to do (1) and (2) should hopefully be obvious, but if (3) doesn't happen, then they'll have another midterm disaster in 2022. In 2022, they'll need the votes of marginal supporters who know who's President, but may not know who controls Congress, and won't know jack shit about the filibuster, just whether the Dems have come through for them or not.

I figure (3) should be the easiest lift of the bunch, assuming the Dems win the Senate this fall. (I don't even dare think of how things go if the Dems win the White House but not the Senate.) If they can't manage that, then Lord help us all.
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Old 01-27-2020, 04:34 PM
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Since Bernie and Warren's support base heavily overlaps (the left progressive wing,) the more Bernie builds a lead over Warren, the heavier the pressure Bernie Bros will put on Warren to drop out so as to stop splitting the progressive wing further. Of course, this will likely make the Warrenites double down all the more.
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Old 01-27-2020, 04:34 PM
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Don't underestimate the power of Bloomberg's money, Moneyball-style campaign and his will to win.
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Old 01-27-2020, 04:38 PM
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We're at one of those interesting crossroads in history, a moment with a clear 'before' and 'after.' In 1858-59, the conventional wisdom would have suggested that Stephen A. Douglas was a safer bet to win the approaching election than that tall Springfield lawyer who sported a funny top hat. But we know how that turned out. Not that I'm suggesting that we're on the eve of a Civil War or that Bernie Sanders is Abe Lincoln. The point is, we're in one of those moments when voters have a sense of urgency, a sense that they want to break from the politics of normal, and like it or not, wise or not, safe or not, that seems to be how our politics are tilted at the moment. This sort of dynamic favors a Bernie Sanders type candidate over a Joe Biden.
Michael Moore argued in a speech a few days ago that every recent time the Democrats have nominated a "safe" candidate, they lost - Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004, and Hillary in 2016. Obama won in 2008 because he was the significantly different, major-change guy - not just in policies but also in race/skin color being a "first".
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Old 01-27-2020, 04:45 PM
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Here are the top six, in order from the PredictIt market "Who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?" based on last traded price.

Bernie Sanders: 40¢
Joe Biden: 35¢
Michael Bloomberg: 14¢
Andrew Yang: 9¢
Elizabeth Warren: 7¢
Pete Buttigieg: 5¢

I think this is, for the most part, absolutely bonkers. e.g. Bloomberg No at 86¢ is a steal. You can probably sell those shares in a week for 95¢ when he earns zero state delegate equivalents in Iowa.
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Old 01-27-2020, 04:50 PM
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Ha! Was just about to post a link to that.
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Old 01-27-2020, 05:00 PM
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Hillary Clinton right behind Buttigieg at 4¢. Absurd.
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Old 01-27-2020, 05:19 PM
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I still don't understand why she never took a moment during any of the debates to draw a comparison/contrast between her and Biden on the 2005 Bankruptcy Act. Getting into this 'Bernie doesn't believe a woman can win' bit was clumsy by itself, but instead of pointing out that Biden's owned by the big-money boys? I'd been waiting for that for months, and...nothing. I think you're right, but I also think that's why it's important that the Dems pass a metric ton of serious legislation in 2021-22. They need to deal with (1) climate change, (2) democracy restoration, and (3) improving people's lives in tangible ways.

The need to do (1) and (2) should hopefully be obvious, but if (3) doesn't happen, then they'll have another midterm disaster in 2022. In 2022, they'll need the votes of marginal supporters who know who's President, but may not know who controls Congress, and won't know jack shit about the filibuster, just whether the Dems have come through for them or not.

I figure (3) should be the easiest lift of the bunch, assuming the Dems win the Senate this fall. (I don't even dare think of how things go if the Dems win the White House but not the Senate.) If they can't manage that, then Lord help us all.
The Senate is going to be very tough but it is doable. The Democrats do have the advantage of having a lot of good surrogates they can send out for senate races. As of today, I assume Alabama is lost and Colorado is a win. As sweet as it would be to get rid of McConnell and Lindsey Graham, I think those seats will be triaged quickly. The Democrats need to use Barack and Michelle Obama as well as Bill and Hillary Clinton. Assuming the nominee is Biden then also send out some of the other former candidates. Kamala Harris is right next door to Arizona and perhaps Beto. Pete and Klobuchar to Iowa, Bernie to college towns everywhere and Maine. Get all hands on deck.

The Democrats do have the advantage of having a lot of big names that are generally liked. There’s some areas where Bill Clinton would have to avoid and the same for Bernie. But, in a place like North Carolina, Bill Clinton could work Charlotte and Bernie could work the college towns and Asheville.

And the final ace might be Bloomberg’s and Steyer’s money if they’re willing to use it for the Senate as well.
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Old 01-27-2020, 05:32 PM
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Is it Biden versus Bernie?
Yes.
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Old 01-27-2020, 05:45 PM
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Hillary Clinton right behind Buttigieg at 4¢. Absurd.
Don't count her as forked just yet. She's due to jump in at any time now.
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Old 01-27-2020, 05:53 PM
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Don't count her as forked just yet. She's due to jump in at any time now.
I doubt it. That's not her campaign style. Hillary Clinton has always been inside the political mainstream; somebody who works her connections with party leaders and donors. A surprise last minute run would not play to her strengths; most of the people she has connections with have already chosen other candidates by now. Her style of campaign is to get in early and lock everything in before the other candidates can build up momentum.
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Old 01-27-2020, 05:55 PM
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It’s a bit too early to speculate as Buttigieg or Warren could surprise in IA and change the narrative immediately a week from today.
I agree. This has only been the first round of the campaign. The second round will be the primaries and that could drastically change the position of the remaining candidates.
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Old 01-27-2020, 07:54 PM
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Michael Moore argued in a speech a few days ago that every recent time the Democrats have nominated a "safe" candidate, they lost - Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004, and Hillary in 2016. Obama won in 2008 because he was the significantly different, major-change guy - not just in policies but also in race/skin color being a "first".
Very small sample size. Also, incumbency and economic factors that can explain all other modern U.S. presidential elections also explain the three Moore cited.

Of course, all presidential elections still makes for a small sample. That's why, to be serious about electability data, you have to go congressional:

What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

As to how successful Trump would be at painting Bernie as extreme, see:
This Is How Trump Would Destroy Bernie Sanders

I'm not crazy about Biden, but a lot of hopefully lazy-on-election-day 2016 Trump voters have made up their minds that he's the one Democrat who isn't scary.

Warren probably won't get the nomination because of fears that she's the next Hillary, but I like her chances if she does. Being able to say she was a Republican before they went crazy is huge. Some center-rightists wouldn't want to be in a position where it looks like they will never vote for a woman (or two women), and so would be inclined to buy that. Pocahontas? Trump is going to have an effective character assassination riff against any opponent. I don't think cultural appropriation would hurt the way honeymoon in the U.S.S.R. will. (Note to young people who don't think that last sounds bad: old people vote much more than your crowd does).

Anyone from Iowa -- think about it

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Old 01-27-2020, 08:15 PM
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Here are the top six, in order from the PredictIt market "Who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?" based on last traded price.

Bernie Sanders: 40¢
Joe Biden: 35¢
Michael Bloomberg: 14¢
Andrew Yang: 9¢
Elizabeth Warren: 7¢
Pete Buttigieg: 5¢

I think this is, for the most part, absolutely bonkers. e.g. Bloomberg No at 86¢ is a steal. You can probably sell those shares in a week for 95¢ when he earns zero state delegate equivalents in Iowa.
Bloomberg is conceding the early races; he's competing in the hopes that he can start stealing delegates on Super Tuesday and start gaining momentum from there. TBH, I'm not sure how seriously he takes himself but I'm guessing he's not one to piss away a billion dollars for shits and giggles. For Bloomberg to win, he'd not to deny everyone else the needed delegates to win the nomination and have enough momentum to make the case that he could beat Trump in a general election. And yes, this is a long shot.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:16 PM
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I doubt it. That's not her campaign style. Hillary Clinton has always been inside the political mainstream; somebody who works her connections with party leaders and donors. A surprise last minute run would not play to her strengths; most of the people she has connections with have already chosen other candidates by now. Her style of campaign is to get in early and lock everything in before the other candidates can build up momentum.
The party has moved on from the Clintons - there's no way.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:23 PM
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I still don't understand why she never took a moment during any of the debates to draw a comparison/contrast between her and Biden on the 2005 Bankruptcy Act. Getting into this 'Bernie doesn't believe a woman can win' bit was clumsy by itself, but instead of pointing out that Biden's owned by the big-money boys? I'd been waiting for that for months, and...nothing.
I think having so many candidates in the race really hurt good candidates like Warren. When there are so many faces to remember, branding becomes a real challenge. In any other year, Warren wouldn't have had to worry at all about her brand because she was already a household name when it comes to being a pragmatic but firmly left firebrand. But when you've got Sanders with his grassroots machine running to the left of you, and you're supposed to be known as the edgy left wing senator from Massachusetts, you get trapped into trying to squeeze between Sanders and Biden, and that's a tough place to be. Not to mention all the fruitcake candidates like Williamson, Gabbard, and Yang.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:50 PM
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It is certainly looking that way both in the RCP betting odds and the 538 model. The two are evenly matched and no one else looks like having a serious chance.

So will this race become a straight contest between the two say after Super Tuesday? Obviously the candidate most likely to challenge them is Warren and the question is whether she will have the means to continue if she keeps losing primaries and whether there will be pressure on her from the left to make it a straight contest.

Who would win a straight contest? I have to think Biden is the favorite. Bernie has a lot of enthusiasm but I also suspect there is a ceiling to his support of around 40% and it's hard to win a two-person race with that. Plus if it does become Biden vs Bernie there will be an steady stream of mainstream Democrats who endorse Biden which cumulatively will help him. On the whole I think it will be a repeat of 2016; if anything Biden is a better campaigner than Hillary.
I'm guessing Biden would win in a 2 person race.

People say that Biden has the black vote locked up, but he is hovering at around 45% of the black vote with Sanders at about 20%. I"m guessing Biden will win the majority of the black vote, but it'll probably be closer to 60/40 for Biden in a 2 person race. And the black vote is only 1/4 of the democratic vote.

Liberals make up 55% of the democratic electorate, but I'm guessing some feel Bernie is too far left too early, and they fear a backlash making them pick Biden as the safe option.

If I had to guess, I'd wager in a 2 person race it'll be 55% Biden, 45% Sanders.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:51 PM
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It will be Biden. He is Hillary v2.02. Someone safe, of the corporate class, that will be electable.

Nothing really changes, as it is meant to be. Despite the talk of the young people in the party, it will be old Joe . Continuing the alienation and separation of The Democratic Party from the base.

He doesn’t even seem to want the job. But he is your guy.

If you can see Joe Biden beating Trump in the general election, well, bless your heart for the optimism.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:31 PM
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Michael Moore argued in a speech a few days ago that every recent time the Democrats have nominated a "safe" candidate, they lost - Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004, and Hillary in 2016. Obama won in 2008 because he was the significantly different, major-change guy - not just in policies but also in race/skin color being a "first".
Michael Moore's an idiot. Obama was not some wild-eyed liberal. He was a mainstream moderate Democrat. Politically, he was in accord with Clinton, Kerry, and Gore.

If being the first black presidential candidate made him different enough to be electable, then why didn't being the first female presidential candidate do the same?

Who were the "unsafe" candidates that Moore thinks were a better choice than Gore and Kerry? Bill Bradley? Dick Gephardt? John Edwards?

And how does Moore explain Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton winning? They were both moderates. It was George McGovern and Hubert Humphrey, both noted as liberals, who lost.

I can answer all of these questions: Michael Moore's an idiot.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:42 PM
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And yes, this is a long shot.
A muuuuuch longer shot than the 1 in 7 chance implied by the PredictIt last trade price of 14¢.

Also a longer shot than Warren or Buttigieg, both of whom PredictIt has at half or less the chance of Bloomy.

Crazytown.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:48 PM
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Nothing really changes, as it is meant to be. Despite the talk of the young people in the party, it will be old Joe . Continuing the alienation and separation of The Democratic Party from the base.
What do you think a base is? If Biden wins the primaries, it's because he has the support the base. The actual base; not whatever group you want to imagine is the base.

Then after the Democratic base has selected their candidate, they have to convince people who aren't Democrats to vote for that person. Are you going to argue that the Democrats would have an easier time convincing non-Democrats to vote for Sanders or Buttigieg or Warren than they would with Biden?
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:49 PM
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A muuuuuch longer shot than the 1 in 7 chance implied by the PredictIt last trade price of 14¢.

Also a longer shot than Warren or Buttigieg, both of whom PredictIt has at half or less the chance of Bloomy.

Crazytown.
In some regards, Bloomberg is already ahead of Buttigieg and almost even with Warren, particularly considering when Bloomberg entered the race. Bloomberg also has the ability to establish his own lane. An aggressive, unapologetic progressive but also a capitalist who trusts the marketplace: in the eyes of Biden voters, he's clearly more appealing than Sanders, and in the eyes of Sanders and Warren voters, he's unafraid to take liberal positions.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:55 PM
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Michael Moore's an idiot. Obama was not some wild-eyed liberal. He was a mainstream moderate Democrat. Politically, he was in accord with Clinton, Kerry, and Gore.

If being the first black presidential candidate made him different enough to be electable, then why didn't being the first female presidential candidate do the same?

Who were the "unsafe" candidates that Moore thinks were a better choice than Gore and Kerry? Bill Bradley? Dick Gephardt? John Edwards?

And how does Moore explain Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton winning? They were both moderates. It was George McGovern and Hubert Humphrey, both noted as liberals, who lost.

I can answer all of these questions: Michael Moore's an idiot.
Moore did predict trump would win the northern Midwest though.

Also the vast majority of people who voted in 1972 are dead now. The electorate changes constantly.
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Old 01-27-2020, 10:01 PM
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If you can see Joe Biden beating Trump in the general election, well, bless your heart for the optimism.
With the economy the way it is, and the power of incumbency, the election is Trump's to lose.

As for Trump having low popularity, being outrageously negative about opponents lowers your own popularity a lot -- but also hurts your opponents. And Trump is a brilliant negative campaigner.

So it would be a mistake for those who oppose the trend towards autocratic rule, in my country, to be optimistic, period.

In Philip Roth's The Plot Against America, the one-term nightmare seemed to have left no lasting damage. After a real world populist victory, that doesn't usually happen.

While I think nominating a former Trotskyite communist, without any clear route for a general election campaign swing to the center, would be a gift to Trump, DJT will probably win regardless. And if doesn't win, he'll insist it was stolen, and there probably will be competing slates for Mike Pence to pick from when he presides over the electoral vote count. While it isn't hopeless, it would be nuts for Trump opponents to be optimistic, period.

Last edited by PhillyGuy; 01-27-2020 at 10:02 PM.
  #33  
Old 01-27-2020, 10:13 PM
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If Biden is the guy there is a very good chance I vote green or not at all. Would never vote for Trump. I could vote for the others but for Sanders I would have to hold my nose to vote for him.
  #34  
Old 01-27-2020, 10:20 PM
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If Biden is the guy there is a very good chance I vote green or not at all. Would never vote for Trump. I could vote for the others but for Sanders I would have to hold my nose to vote for him.
If you're in North Carolina and North Carolina has a chance to swing, you owe it to your country to do the right thing.
  #35  
Old 01-27-2020, 10:30 PM
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I am in NC. Obama won here in 2008 but not 2012. Clinton was here a lot in 2016 but she lost by 3%. Don't see any Dem winning here this year but I certainly may be wrong. Sanders would do the worst here. Warren probably has the best shot here.
  #36  
Old 01-27-2020, 10:34 PM
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I am in NC. Obama won here in 2008 but not 2012. Clinton was here a lot in 2016 but she lost by 3%. Don't see any Dem winning here this year but I certainly may be wrong. Sanders would do the worst here. Warren probably has the best shot here.
Trump will keep NC in the win column in 2020 - bank on it..
  #37  
Old 01-27-2020, 11:16 PM
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If Biden is the guy there is a very good chance I vote green or not at all. Would never vote for Trump. I could vote for the others but for Sanders I would have to hold my nose to vote for him.
You realize throwing your vote away on some kooky green is the same as voting for Trump. If I lived in swingy NC, I’d take the day off from work, vote for Biden first thing, and then buy a bottle of Jack Daniels and down it all before noon but at least I did what I could. Because, you know what? Some evangelicals will hold their nose, vote for Trump and then go home and grab their Bible just as they did in 2016.
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Last edited by dalej42; 01-27-2020 at 11:17 PM.
  #38  
Old 01-27-2020, 11:16 PM
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If Biden is the guy there is a very good chance I vote green or not at all. Would never vote for Trump.
You're contradicting yourself.
  #39  
Old 01-28-2020, 09:17 AM
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I actually do think Biden has the best shot of taking down Trump in the EC. I think he'll have Pennsylvania locked up and will have some carry over effects into Ohio. If he picks Klobuchar, I think he can turn Wisconsin as well. I mean I don't think he'll win the Popular Vote as much as Clinton did, but I think he can turn enough states that it won't matter as much.
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Old 01-28-2020, 10:08 AM
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Moore did predict trump would win the northern Midwest though.

Also the vast majority of people who voted in 1972 are dead now. The electorate changes constantly.
Lots of people make predictions. How many chuckleheads get on CNBC and brazenly predict the next recession? Yes, they were right in 2008, but that doesn’t give them a pass for the 25 other recessions they predicted which didn’t happen.
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  #41  
Old 01-28-2020, 12:57 PM
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If Biden is the guy there is a very good chance I vote green or not at all. Would never vote for Trump. I could vote for the others but for Sanders I would have to hold my nose to vote for him.
You might want to check this out, only change "Nader" to "Green"
  #42  
Old 01-28-2020, 01:08 PM
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If you're in North Carolina and North Carolina has a chance to swing, you owe it to your country to do the right thing.
You should still vote for the Democrats even if they have no chance to win this year. Politicians look at the numbers. If the Republicans expect to win by 65% and they only win by 55%, they will see the trend. And they will adjust their behavior in office accordingly.
  #43  
Old 01-28-2020, 03:50 PM
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You should still vote for the Democrats even if they have no chance to win this year.
i will. I'm a grown up.
  #44  
Old 01-28-2020, 04:18 PM
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If Biden is the guy there is a very good chance I vote green or not at all. Would never vote for Trump. I could vote for the others but for Sanders I would have to hold my nose to vote for him.
There are about 40 states where your vote is irrelevant — states that have no chance of being the "tipping" state.

North Carolina is not one of those 40 states. Please rise above your petulance — or whatever it is — and vote correctly in the interest of your country and humanity.
  #45  
Old 01-28-2020, 04:54 PM
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I am in NC. Obama won here in 2008 but not 2012. Clinton was here a lot in 2016 but she lost by 3%. Don't see any Dem winning here this year but I certainly may be wrong. Sanders would do the worst here. Warren probably has the best shot here.


I’m not thrilled about the prospect of voting for Biden or Bernie in the general either. Biden thinks we just need to rewind to 2015 and everything will be fine. And Bernie is too much of an ideologue, I’m not convinced he can actually make things happen. And when independents and conservatives accuse him of being too socialist, well that’s hard to dispute. But compared to Trump, it’s not even close, I will vote for either of them. Even though most likely my state is going red again. But Id love to be wrong about that.
  #46  
Old 01-29-2020, 08:37 PM
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Returning to the op -
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Originally Posted by Lantern View Post
... So will this race become a straight contest between the two say after Super Tuesday? Obviously the candidate most likely to challenge them is Warren and the question is whether she will have the means to continue if she keeps losing primaries and whether there will be pressure on her from the left to make it a straight contest.

Who would win a straight contest? I have to think Biden is the favorite. Bernie has a lot of enthusiasm but I also suspect there is a ceiling to his support of around 40% and it's hard to win a two-person race with that. Plus if it does become Biden vs Bernie there will be an steady stream of mainstream Democrats who endorse Biden which cumulatively will help him. On the whole I think it will be a repeat of 2016; if anything Biden is a better campaigner than Hillary.
It is too early to say.

Right now all I'd be willing to bet on is Biden vs some single one by the end and I's hesitate to even make that bet.

Exactly right that Sanders has his solid base of support and a pretty firm ceiling as well. More firmly do not want him as the candidate than do I think and my WAG is that more Democratic primary voters are center Left than want anything revolutionary. (Even as many previously "progressive" positions have become the "center Left" positions.)

If it settles out to Biden v Sanders it is Biden.

If Biden fumbles hard (doubt), not even getting a bronze in either of the first two, making his electability argument less cogent, then center Left support would quickly shift to someone else, and not Buttigieg - too young yet and short on the CV for the mainstream. And Klobuchar has shown more chops as time went on but still doesn't have the charisma or established support/recognition for the top of the ticket. I'd be thinking moneyball on SuperTuesday pays off and it is Bloomberg v Sanders (or less likely now, v Warren) with Bloomberg on top. And I could live with that.
  #47  
Old 01-29-2020, 08:51 PM
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You should still vote for the Democrats even if they have no chance to win this year. Politicians look at the numbers. If the Republicans expect to win by 65% and they only win by 55%, they will see the trend. And they will adjust their behavior in office accordingly.
The only adjustment I've seen Republicans making has been to amp up the voter suppression policies. I do not remotely think the Republican Party is gonna say, "Yikes, we're close to losing the next election, we better moderate."
  #48  
Old 01-30-2020, 06:23 AM
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In the primary I am voting for Yang if he is still in the race otherwise Bloomberg. Don't have a problem with Sanders other than the fact I think there is no way he beats Trump. Hopefully Biden is not the nominee so I don't have to decide to vote for him or green candidate.
  #49  
Old 01-30-2020, 09:00 PM
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In the primary I am voting for Yang if he is still in the race otherwise Bloomberg. Don't have a problem with Sanders other than the fact I think there is no way he beats Trump. Hopefully Biden is not the nominee so I don't have to decide to vote for him or green candidate.
But really... you must be yanking our chains a little bit. I sure HOPE you are yanking our chains...

It is your vote to do with as you please but I'm sure you understand the unique ineffectiveness of voting third party for prez in the USA. You must understand that there will be only two (2) contenders for the office, no more, no less, and if you vote for anyone other than those two then effectively, you have not voted for president.

Some choose to do that as a protest of some sort. That's their right but I don't approve of it. If you want your vote to affect the 2020 outcome you need to do two things:

1. Vote
2. Make a selection in the binary choice between: A) Dem or B) GOP



NOTE: Remember, at this time a US presidential election is a BINARY choice. You don't have to vote but if you do you must vote for one of only two choices if you want your vote to matter.

Considering the above, Bijou, would you sincerely vote for Trump over Biden?
  #50  
Old 01-30-2020, 10:26 PM
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Would not vote for Trump ever in a million years. And to me a vote for Green party is not a vote for Trump. You are free to disagree on that point. I don't see the race being close here in NC. Trump should win by at least 5 points barring some very strange thing happening between now and November.

I really,really hate that we only have 2 "real" choices. I would love to vote for a middle type party that is socially liberal and fiscally conservative. I know they have more than 2 parties in many places in Europe. Too bad we don't have that here.

Also the NC GOP made it very easy to get Greens on the ballot here , they hoped it would hurt the Dems. Hasn't really mattered so far.

Last edited by Bijou Drains; 01-30-2020 at 10:29 PM.
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