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  #51  
Old 01-30-2020, 11:49 PM
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Would not vote for Trump ever in a million years. And to me a vote for Green party is not a vote for Trump.
You're wrong. If you're not voting for the only candidate who has a chance at beating Trump, then you're helping Trump.

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Also the NC GOP made it very easy to get Greens on the ballot here , they hoped it would hurt the Dems.
Exactly. They know that votes for the Green Party will help Trump get re-elected. Why are you helping them?

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I really,really hate that we only have 2 "real" choices. I would love to vote for a middle type party that is socially liberal and fiscally conservative. I know they have more than 2 parties in many places in Europe. Too bad we don't have that here.
As I said in another thread, this is about voting not making wishes. You have to work with the situation that exists and make as much out of it as you can.

This is the year that we need to focus on getting Donald Trump out of office and doing whatever works best to accomplish that. Use a different year to send messages.
  #52  
Old 01-31-2020, 06:25 AM
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Don't waste your time telling me to vote for a professional politician like Biden. I think he is going to implode again. Hopefully that happens before the convention. If it happens after and he's the nominee that would be very bad. And I don't think Biden can't beat Trump anyway. I think there is a chance Bloomberg can beat Trump.
  #53  
Old 02-01-2020, 07:16 AM
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Don't waste your time telling me to vote for a professional politician like Biden. I think he is going to implode again. Hopefully that happens before the convention. If it happens after and he's the nominee that would be very bad. And I don't think Biden can't beat Trump anyway. I think there is a chance Bloomberg can beat Trump.
I don't care if you vote for Biden, just make sure you vote for the Democrat. If that Democrat is Biden, well, that's unpleasant for you but you still need to vote for the Democrat.

To respond to something you said recently: personally, I don't believe a vote for the Green candidate is a vote for Trump. I believe it's not a vote for POTUS at all. It is an abstention.

If you want to be a part of choosing the next president there are only two candidates to choose from. You know that.

North Carolina is enough of a swing state that people there need to be sure and vote for one of the two candidates. I hope you choose the Democrat even if it's Biden.

Last edited by I Love Me, Vol. I; 02-01-2020 at 07:21 AM.
  #54  
Old 02-01-2020, 08:12 AM
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If polls show NC is close I may hold my nose very tightly and vote for Biden. I really hope he implodes soon so a better candidate is picked. I simply don't understand the appeal of the guy. Experience is important but you don't need 40+ years of experience.

On the other hand , Bloomberg ran a city of 9 million people for 12 years. That's larger than all but around 12 states. And Bloomberg got no money from his parents. He built his company from the ground up. Yes, he is super rich but I don't hold that against him , why would I? For the most part he's a standard Democrat in his positions. And yes he did bad stuff like stop and frisk in NYC.
  #55  
Old 02-01-2020, 08:26 AM
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Would not vote for Trump ever in a million years. And to me a vote for Green party is not a vote for Trump. You are free to disagree on that point. I don't see the race being close here in NC. Trump should win by at least 5 points barring some very strange thing happening between now and November.

I really,really hate that we only have 2 "real" choices. I would love to vote for a middle type party that is socially liberal and fiscally conservative. I know they have more than 2 parties in many places in Europe. Too bad we don't have that here.

Also the NC GOP made it very easy to get Greens on the ballot here , they hoped it would hurt the Dems. Hasn't really mattered so far.
You can rationalize it all you want, but sorry, if you vote against the candidate with the best shot of defeating Trump, you're helping Trump win.

It's one thing if you have two really repulsive candidates, but the worst of the remaining 11 candidates in the Democratic primary are better than the wrecking ball we have in office currently. And you really should know that.

I've never thought Bernie Sanders would be a particularly great president. I think Yang is extremely intelligent but highly inexperienced in politics and therefore woefully under-qualified. And Tulsi Gabbard just strikes me as a little 'out there'. I'd still vote for any of those three if the top candidates somehow withdrew from the race.
  #56  
Old 02-01-2020, 08:34 AM
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[QUOTE=Bijou Drains;22113726]If polls show NC is close I may hold my nose very tightly and vote for Biden. .../QUOTE]
That is a reasonable position given your opinion of Biden. And given that polling has a reasonable error range I would hope that your definition of "close" is within even 6%.
  #57  
Old 02-01-2020, 09:29 AM
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Don't underestimate the power of Bloomberg's money, Moneyball-style campaign and his will to win.
I agree with this. If not for Bloomberg's TV commercials, I wouldn't know that Texas Democrats were even participating in the Super Tuesday primary only four weeks away.
  #58  
Old 02-01-2020, 09:56 AM
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Why does Biden have the best chance to beat Trump? Biden is too old ,washed up,his time is past , etc. Trump will carve him up like a Thanksgiving turkey. And yes I know Bloomberg is 77. Yang is my first choice , then Bloomberg.
  #59  
Old 02-01-2020, 11:56 AM
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If polls show NC is close I may hold my nose very tightly and vote for Biden.
If Biden is the nominee, it is overwhelmingly likely that the polls will be close.

Current RCP average is Biden +3.4 over Trump in NC.

Last edited by Lance Turbo; 02-01-2020 at 11:58 AM.
  #60  
Old 02-01-2020, 12:02 PM
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A Bernie volunteer came to my front door today -- the first time I've ever gotten a canvasser at my door. We had a nice conversation.
  #61  
Old 02-01-2020, 02:24 PM
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2nd Bernie volunteer at my door just now! Wow.

This one was from a different organization. I told them they should coordinate with the other groups (the 1st one was apparently the campaign itself) so they don't cover the same area, but he said that that would be illegal.

This kind of enthusiasm is an awfully good sign from the Bernie campaign.

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  #62  
Old 02-01-2020, 03:47 PM
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I'm not paying any attention to polls until October either in NC or national polls.
  #63  
Old 02-01-2020, 07:19 PM
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I'm not paying any attention to polls until October either in NC or national polls.
That's also fair.

If someone lives in California, or in the other direction, Mississippi, and the result in their state is not at all in doubt, then voting third party for president and voting local how it matters, is a reasonably ethical choice.

North Carolina last time was polling tied going into election day and Trump won the state less than the number of voters who went third party. It is more of a potential swing state than Ohio and Florida anyway. And while the GOP won both House special elections there 9/10/19 they did by smaller margins than they should have by "partisan lean": the 9th in particular moved 11 over from its partisan lean.

North Carolina's swing to hard right was pretty recent. It was Obama in '08 and actually according to Gallup in terms of affiliation has a 44 to 39 D (and leaners) advantage. Same as PA and more than WI or NH. If only turnout is there and depending on which way those without leans go. (17% of voters report no lean.)

Odds are great that October 2020 will have polling in North Carolina within several percent.

Bijou Drains ... your voting choice, and your encouragement of others in your local circles, even if it does require holding your nose, likely will matter much more than what many of the rest of us do.
  #64  
Old 02-01-2020, 07:38 PM
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I thought Kamela Harris could have been this cycle's John Kerry, the guy who seemed absolutely finished by December 2004 and who made an extraordinary turnaround that had all the short-sighted handicappers dashing around trying to explain how they always knew Kerry was of course inevitable.

But she got out too soon, and thus missed the chance for all the old fogies on the SDMB (hey, I'm one too) to get all panicky about Sanders and Biden and which of the two Trump is gonna eat for breakfast, and if only there was another option who was not damaged by whatever panic-point kept you up last night (Too old! Too young! The DNC thinks he/she is wildly out step in terms of DNC-approved brownie points! Trump will call him or her a hurtful name! Etc!).

Myself, I'm all in for Warren (whose potential for a Kerry-like surprise comeback is absolutely possible; certainly she's a better campaigner than Kerry or for that matter Harris ever was) but if Bernie turns out to be the nominee, that's fine too and I absolutely give props to him and his tireless and motivated supporters for making it so. Crazy world, huh? And either Liz or Bernie can win, and if you like their politics but insist that someone more Hilary-like is the only road to victory, then fine but just remember that the mooks and frowny-faces that hang out on SDMB do not necessarily make up the sum total of the engaged body politic and that perception is pliable and received wisdom is for mooncows and jabbernowls - we're not those, are we?
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Old 02-01-2020, 09:55 PM
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I thought Kamela Harris could have been this cycle's John Kerry, the guy who seemed absolutely finished by December 2004 and who made an extraordinary turnaround that had all the short-sighted handicappers dashing around trying to explain how they always knew Kerry was of course inevitable.

But she got out too soon, and thus missed the chance for all the old fogies on the SDMB (hey, I'm one too) to get all panicky about Sanders and Biden and which of the two Trump is gonna eat for breakfast, and if only there was another option who was not damaged by whatever panic-point kept you up last night (Too old! Too young! The DNC thinks he/she is wildly out step in terms of DNC-approved brownie points! Trump will call him or her a hurtful name! Etc!).

Myself, I'm all in for Warren (whose potential for a Kerry-like surprise comeback is absolutely possible; certainly she's a better campaigner than Kerry or for that matter Harris ever was) but if Bernie turns out to be the nominee, that's fine too and I absolutely give props to him and his tireless and motivated supporters for making it so. Crazy world, huh? And either Liz or Bernie can win, and if you like their politics but insist that someone more Hilary-like is the only road to victory, then fine but just remember that the mooks and frowny-faces that hang out on SDMB do not necessarily make up the sum total of the engaged body politic and that perception is pliable and received wisdom is for mooncows and jabbernowls - we're not those, are we?
Harris simply ran out of money. She built too big of an operation too soon and put way too much into apathetic South Carolina. She (and Beto) withdrew around the first of the month which tells me they just didn’t have enough money to pay the staff on the nest paycheck.

The Kerry comeback was helped by the Gephardt/Dean fight. If Buttigieg and Biden were at each other’s throats and fistfights were occurring, ok.
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  #66  
Old 02-01-2020, 10:15 PM
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I think you are forgetting the "outsider" appeal of Sanders. Many people are sick of party politics and whomever the party chooses.

Trump and to some effect Obama had this. Bernie has this.

I actually think he could pull it off.
  #67  
Old 02-01-2020, 10:22 PM
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The only way Bernie can overtake Biden at this point is if he suddenly starts hitting home runs nonstop and Biden chokes with gaffe after gaffe on the trail.
  #69  
Old 02-02-2020, 12:21 AM
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I think you are forgetting the "outsider" appeal of Sanders. Many people are sick of party politics and whomever the party chooses.

Trump and to some effect Obama had this. Bernie has this.

I actually think he could pull it off.
People have been ‘sick of party politics’ since Jefferson vs Adams. Bernie has his 25% and probably 35-40% in a two person race.
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Old 02-02-2020, 12:55 AM
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perception is pliable and received wisdom is for mooncows and jabbernowls - we're not those, are we?
Can I use this for my sig?
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Old 02-02-2020, 01:13 AM
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To the OP, probably. 538 now has a 74% chance that one or the other will clinch a delegate majority before the convention; plus another 16% chance of a contested convention, which of course could also result in one of them being the nominee.

Unless one of the underdogs can throw a Hail Mary in Iowa or NH, it’s going to be down to 2 candidates. I guess Bloomberg could make a run, but he’d need to pick up a large majority of the voters who aren’t already supporting Biden or Sanders to be competitive. Current 538 average has Biden 27, Sanders 22.
  #72  
Old 02-02-2020, 02:39 AM
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Daily Mail (not the most reputable of papers, so take it for what it's worth): A Bernie nomination could see many Democrats vote for Trump, or not vote, in November.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...omination.html
  #73  
Old 02-02-2020, 07:31 AM
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I can see religious black voters stay home if Sanders is the nominee , a few might vote for Trump
  #74  
Old 02-02-2020, 11:13 AM
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Just about every head-to-head poll I've seen shows that Biden's got about a 1% lead over Sanders in their vs.-Trump matchups. That's not nothing, but it's pretty close to nothing, and makes me look with rich skepticism on alarmist calls about all the Democrats who would vote Trump over Sanders. There just aren't that many of them out there, as near as I can tell from actual polling.

But that doesn't mean Sanders and Biden have an equal chance, because things can and will change.

As I see it, Biden is better than Sanders on background, but worse on campaigning.

Personally I much prefer Sanders's background to Biden's: Sanders has a long progressive history that warms the pinko cockles of my heart, and he's been very consistent in holding these views even when it was politically disadvantageous to do so. A lot of the gossippy "nobody likes him" trifling is based on this, IMO: he refuses to play nice with folks whose policies are causing harm. Biden is a consummate nice-player, and boasts about how chummy he was with avowed segregationists.

That said, I think Biden's past is gonna play a lot better in the general than Sanders's. Sure, Biden made some fairly conservative moves over the last half-century; but those would only alienate people who already loathe Trump, and as we all know (or should know), the single most important item you can bring to the voting booth is a clothespin for your nose. Sanders, on the other hand, has some straight-up problematic shit in his past, especially that weird-ass essay on sex. That, combined with his Soviet honeymoon, are gonna be like cocaine-laced potato chips to the Fox crowd, and are a genuine weakness for Sanders.

However, on the campaign trail, Sanders is a 100% known quantity, the Big Mac of stump speeches. He is going to campaign tomorrow, and in March, and maybe in October, exactly the way he campaigned in 1990. He is solid and steady and reliable. Biden tomorrow might give a decent speech, or he might drop his pants to compare penis sizes with an Iowa truck driver, or he might tell attendees at a black church that single mothers and Cosby record player if they read more and Jim Crow wasn't a friend but work across the aisle.

I'm biased toward Sanders, and I fully recognize that might color my conclusion, but I'd rather have a solid candidate with some weird shit in his past than an unstable candidate with a more conventional past.
  #75  
Old 02-02-2020, 11:48 AM
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General election polls this early are not very accurate, IMO. And Sanders and Biden are almost at the same spot in these early general election polls. With that in mind, my gut feel tells me that we need enthusiasm to have the best chance to win this election, and Sanders is much more likely to bring and inspire enthusiasm than Biden. In addition, I think Sanders is better on the issues, especially recognizing the brokenness of our system -- that we really need big structural changes because our system so massively favors the wealthy and powerful.

I'm not yet 100% sure who I'm voting for in the primary, but I'm about 95% there, and right now I'm strongly leaning Bernie.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 02-02-2020 at 11:49 AM.
  #76  
Old 02-02-2020, 11:59 AM
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Can I use this for my sig?
Sure. Credit for the "mooncows and jabbernowls" part goes to W.C. Fields.
  #77  
Old 02-02-2020, 01:10 PM
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Just about every head-to-head poll I've seen shows that Biden's got about a 1% lead over Sanders in their vs.-Trump matchups. That's not nothing, but it's pretty close to nothing, and makes me look with rich skepticism on alarmist calls about all the Democrats who would vote Trump over Sanders. There just aren't that many of them out there, as near as I can tell from actual polling. ...
(An immaterial aside, but looking at 538's list most of the more recent well rated national head to heads have Biden doing 2 or 3% better than Sanders ... and a couple the other way.)

While to be sure head to heads tell us only a little bit at this point a real 1%, especially 1% in particular states, is far from nothing. 1% in each of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, for example would have been lots more than next to nothing. New Hampshire was within 1% too. 1% in Florida would have been huge in the past too.

Those aren't the only states that matter but they are among only several that small margins can make or break the election.

Yes, Democrats voting Trump over their non-preferred choice is probably extremely small, but some staying home or going 3rd party? Maybe a bit less small ... in each direction, from some hard Sander supporters to those who fear a promised more "revolutionary" approach. I am not convinced that either would have a bigger or smaller impact on D turnout overall ... but maybe different in different subgroups which could have differential impact in specific states.

Plus to Biden is that he has few unknowns on the trail. His flaws (and they are real, mainly his penchant for foot in mouth) are all already baked in. I don't see his overall favorability and unfavorability being moved much. Sanders' campaign style is a known thing but what a no holds barred negative campaign could bring is completely unknown factor, as is his ability to deal with it since he's never had to. I see more potential for him to be hurt by negative campaigning against him.

I'd love to read me some quality analysis of how each, and heck throw in Bloomberg and Warren, would appeal against Trump specifically in the fairly few states that matter most.
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Old 02-02-2020, 02:18 PM
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The problem with a Bernie nomination is that it shifts the focus away from Trump's problems towards Bernie's problems. With Biden vs. Trump, all the focus would be on "how bad a president Trump is." But with Bernie vs. Trump, suddenly the election is all about "how will Bernie's democratic socialism and other ideas work? Will they bankrupt us? etc."
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Old 02-02-2020, 02:47 PM
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General election polls this early are not very accurate, IMO. And Sanders and Biden are almost at the same spot in these early general election polls. With that in mind, my gut feel tells me that we need enthusiasm to have the best chance to win this election, and Sanders is much more likely to bring and inspire enthusiasm than Biden. In addition, I think Sanders is better on the issues, especially recognizing the brokenness of our system -- that we really need big structural changes because our system so massively favors the wealthy and powerful.

I'm not yet 100% sure who I'm voting for in the primary, but I'm about 95% there, and right now I'm strongly leaning Bernie.
Enthusiasm runs both ways. There will be people willing to crawl over broken glass to vote against Bernie.

You, and many of Bernie’s supporters may like the promise of big structural change. There are also plenty of office workers in office parks in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that spend 40 hours a week crunching numbers on spreadsheets and don’t have the pitchforks and torches ready and want to ‘burn the mother fucker down!!!!!!’
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Old 02-02-2020, 02:55 PM
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General election polls this early are not very accurate, IMO. And Sanders and Biden are almost at the same spot in these early general election polls. With that in mind, my gut feel tells me that we need enthusiasm to have the best chance to win this election, and Sanders is much more likely to bring and inspire enthusiasm than Biden. In addition, I think Sanders is better on the issues, especially recognizing the brokenness of our system -- that we really need big structural changes because our system so massively favors the wealthy and powerful.

I'm not yet 100% sure who I'm voting for in the primary, but I'm about 95% there, and right now I'm strongly leaning Bernie.
Enthusiasm runs both ways. There will be people willing to crawl over broken glass to vote against Bernie.

You, and many of Bernie’s supporters may like the promise of big structural change. There are also plenty of office workers in office parks in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that spend 40 hours a week crunching numbers on spreadsheets and don’t have the pitchforks and torches ready and want to ‘burn the mother fucker down!!!!!!’
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Old 02-02-2020, 02:59 PM
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On the other hand, with over 600,000 medical bankruptcies per year, over 30,000 deaths from lack of access to health care and an untold number of people who have health insurance but who can't afford to actually use it due to high deductibles, surprise coverage gaps and unaffordable drug prices I think we might be surprised at how many Midwestern conservative working stiffs might be open to the concept of single payer healthcare, especially since anyone with a computer has access to billions of people who live in single payer systems to ask "hey, is that actually cool or nah?"
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Old 02-02-2020, 03:06 PM
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I think, with their advanced ages, people might check and see who their running mates are, in case they may have to take over.
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Old 02-02-2020, 03:12 PM
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Daily Mail (not the most reputable of papers, so take it for what it's worth): A Bernie nomination could see many Democrats vote for Trump, or not vote, in November.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...omination.html
"...warn party donors and insiders" the headline ends. That is not a surprising take from those groups.
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Old 02-02-2020, 03:12 PM
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Enthusiasm runs both ways. There will be people willing to crawl over broken glass to vote against Bernie.



You, and many of Bernie’s supporters may like the promise of big structural change. There are also plenty of office workers in office parks in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that spend 40 hours a week crunching numbers on spreadsheets and don’t have the pitchforks and torches ready and want to ‘burn the mother fucker down!!!!!!’
We'll see. I think Bernie does a good job framing these issues in ways that shouldn't frighten any but the very wealthy and the Fox News true believers, but we'll find out soon enough.
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Old 02-02-2020, 03:28 PM
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Enthusiasm runs both ways. There will be people willing to crawl over broken glass to vote against Bernie.

You, and many of Bernie’s supporters may like the promise of big structural change. There are also plenty of office workers in office parks in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that spend 40 hours a week crunching numbers on spreadsheets and don’t have the pitchforks and torches ready and want to ‘burn the mother fucker down!!!!!!’
I'm always astonished that Bernie Sander's modest new deal reforms--which would put us in line with virtually every other developed country--are regarded as "Burning the motherfucker down." Bernie Sanders isn't burning anything down, whether it fornicates with its female parent or not.

Partially this is Sanders fault of course. He self-identifies as a Socialist and says he's leading a revolution. He isn't either of those things. Bernie Sanders is a capitalist. He's not going to seize the means of production. He just wants wealthy individuals and corporations to pay more taxes and refrain from befouling the planet so much.
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Old 02-02-2020, 04:06 PM
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He does not identify as a socialist, he identifies as a Democratic Socialist and has for decades. These are completely different critters in spite of the shared nomenclature.
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Old 02-02-2020, 04:12 PM
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He does not identify as a socialist, he identifies as a Democratic Socialist and has for decades. These are completely different critters in spite of the shared nomenclature.
True, but I don't think a lot of voters are aware of that distinction. And the media, who hate Sanders, aren't going to educate them.
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Old 02-02-2020, 04:13 PM
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There was earlier link to particular betting site, another is obviously to look at RCP betting site average.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...20_nomination/

Similar, Sanders 39%, Biden 34%, Bloomberg 16% all others less than 10% chance. It's been really fluid though up to now, Warren peaked above 50% betting odds of being nominee, now~9%.

It makes sense IMO for Sanders to now lead Biden in % probability. He leads in RCP avg of polls in both IA and NH. Winning both he becomes clear front runner, and seems unlikely now he won't win one and be at least confirmed co-front runner. People have been saying all along Biden could suddenly collapse if he doesn't win because his candidacy is based on 'electable' (though in general). I don't really buy that because you have to believe Buttigieg or Warren wouldn't collapse from coming in behind Biden which they probably will, polls are not *that* close in IA/NH, they're definitely behind now.

So I think Biden does become the non-Sanders alternative if Sanders does nearly as well next couple of weeks as he looks in polls now. The problem for Biden longer run is that most Warren support surely, though Buttigieg less surely, will go to Sanders when they drop out.

As far as Sanders not being a socialist or revolutionary (though as was fairly noted *he* says he is), that's a view of many Democratic primary voter type people, 'what's so radical about him?'. Which is what matters for now. Later on if he's nominee it will matter what general election voters think and his self-described socialism and radicalism could sink him.* There is simply no 'fact' that Sanders is too radical or not in a general election, only opinion now and a result if he's nominee.

*or not. He scores well on 'understands people like me' and genuineness, which can be more important than ideology to non-ideological people. Warren would have been (I think it's getting close to time to use that tense) much weaker on those non-ideological measures with broadly similar position on the left/right spectrum.

Last edited by Corry El; 02-02-2020 at 04:15 PM.
  #90  
Old 02-02-2020, 04:41 PM
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I'm always astonished that Bernie Sander's modest new deal reforms--which would put us in line with virtually every other developed country--are regarded as "Burning the motherfucker down." Bernie Sanders isn't burning anything down, whether it fornicates with its female parent or not.

Partially this is Sanders fault of course. He self-identifies as a Socialist and says he's leading a revolution. He isn't either of those things. Bernie Sanders is a capitalist. He's not going to seize the means of production. He just wants wealthy individuals and corporations to pay more taxes and refrain from befouling the planet so much.
This isn’t Europe. We’ve got a very different history in the USA than Europe plus a very government system. In a parliamentary system, once the government gets into power, they can enact whatever they’ve promised.

The USA has weak party discipline, almost no one in Congress will know that they have their seat because of the President.

Plus, we have a federal system with very strong state governments. The second a Democrat gets into office. Texas and other red states will start throwing sand into the gears, just like California has for Trump.
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  #92  
Old 02-02-2020, 06:39 PM
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Umm, ok. Maybe I’ll watch Evita or Reds after the Super Bowl.
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  #93  
Old 02-02-2020, 07:00 PM
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Iowa is feelin' the Bern!
  #94  
Old 02-03-2020, 10:26 AM
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IIRC, every Democratic candidate that captured both Iowa and New Hampshire, in 2000-2016, went on to become the Democratic nominee? (I'm at work now, maybe someone can fact-check me)

Bernie is leading in polls in both.
  #95  
Old 02-03-2020, 10:33 AM
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Edit: Iowa only.
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Old 02-03-2020, 11:24 AM
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Yes, every Dem candidate that won Iowa from 2000 on has become the nominee.

If we disregard 2012 when nobody challenged Obama for the nomination, that's a sample of size 4.

Iowa, NH winners of both parties from 1976-present here.
  #97  
Old 02-03-2020, 11:32 AM
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It’s a bit too early to speculate as Buttigieg or Warren could surprise in IA and change the narrative immediately a week from today.

But, if it comes down to Bernie vs anyone, the anyone will win. Bernie has got a damn hard ceiling of #NeverBernie people and as Hillary has mentioned, none of his Congressional colleagues like him. Endorsements will flow like cheap champagne on NYE if it’s a Bernie vs Biden race. A lot of that money that Buttigieg and Warren have been raising would start flowing to Biden.

Plus the spotlight will be on Bernie and I don’t think Bernie will like it one bit. Bernie’s life before 40 isn’t a story that will cause thousands of new voters to flock to him.

Biden may not be a better campaigner than Hillary, but we’ve all learned not to just handle Bernie with kid gloves this time around. Bernie is stubborn as hell and won’t quit the race even if he falls hopelessly behind in the delegate count. He’s got his email list and they’ll keep donating. The conspiracy theories will fly everywhere.
The dynamic you describe was exactly what I expected to happen with the trump campaign in 2016. I figured that as conventional pols dropped out that their support would flow to other conventional pols, leaving trump to fall behind despite retaining roughly the same percentage of voters. Needless to say, that's not what happened. Democrats like to say that they're smarter than Republicans. This is our chance to prove it.
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Old 02-03-2020, 12:55 PM
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The dynamic you describe was exactly what I expected to happen with the trump campaign in 2016. I figured that as conventional pols dropped out that their support would flow to other conventional pols, leaving trump to fall behind despite retaining roughly the same percentage of voters. Needless to say, that's not what happened. Democrats like to say that they're smarter than Republicans. This is our chance to prove it.
Democratic and Republican parties are pretty different in many ways but dissatisfaction with status quo or 'establishment' I think runs across the whole electorate. Also I don't see something fundamentally different about Democratic and GOP politicians in terms of why they run (personal ambition, mainly): that runs across pretty much all political parties in all countries at all times. Meaning the ones other than Sanders will probably not be able to immediately agree which of them should face Sanders and all others drop out. Like in GOP case in 2016, if all candidates but Trump and one major ABT (Anybody but Trump) had dropped out as soon as Trump did well in opening contests things might have been different...but that's unlikely in any party. The other contenders tend to stay in the race and battle the others to become the ABX candidate, meanwhile X keeps building momentum.

Which is not to say Sanders is a shoo-in. Betting odds approximately 40% he'll be nominee. I tend to think that's not a massive mis-pricing. But that's partly conditional on him doing as well as appears likely in IA/NH. If he does I think that prob goes well over 50%, but all the other major candidates but one will not spontaneously agree who should be the ABS, drop out and back that person.

Last edited by Corry El; 02-03-2020 at 12:58 PM.
  #99  
Old 02-03-2020, 12:58 PM
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I'm always astonished that Bernie Sander's modest new deal reforms--which would put us in line with virtually every other developed country--are regarded as "Burning the motherfucker down." Bernie Sanders isn't burning anything down, whether it fornicates with its female parent or not.
Three questions:
*Who among the Democratic candidates still in the race -- or even those who were in the race two months ago -- isn't proposing going beyond Obamacare to a health insurance system with a robust public option and nobody left behind?

*Who other than Sanders and Warren is proposing absolutely abolishing private health insurance?

*How many of those developed countries have completely abolished private health insurers? I know off the top of my head that the UK and Germany have private health insurers.
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Old 02-03-2020, 01:35 PM
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To expand on my previous post and explain why Sanders in particular gets this reputation, the difference between Sanders and Warren is willingness to compromise to get things done. Warren has a record of it in the Senate, Sanders emphatically does not and speaks of compromise in the same disdainful tone as he talks about billionaires.

IMHO, President Sanders and President Warren would both send their health care proposals to Congress. The difference is that, if Congress returns an amended bill with a robust public option but with private insurers still having some role, Warren would sign it and Sanders wouldn't. Ironically, the only Democratic nominee who if elected with both chambers of Congress also being Democratic* would end up with Obamacare still continuing would be Sanders.

*The Dems may or may not take the Senate, but if they do, the margin of victory, the seats that would flip, wouldn't be deep blue states sending a Warren or Sanders type to the Senate but purple states electing moderates. Those moderates might vote with the general spirit of the party that Obamacare doesn't go far enough, or they might be blue dogs in the Manchin mold, but I'd be exceedingly surprised if they voted for a full-blown Sanders/Warren no-private-insurers plan.
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