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Old 01-28-2020, 08:25 PM
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The Trump Middle East Peace Plane


Was just announced. It is a two-state plan with Palestine getting a capital in Jerusalem (but they will call it something else) and a tunnel linking the West Bank and Gaza.


I question if there will be any debate on this at all. It will most likely get even less attention than any of a number of similar ideas. The basic problem is that it is a diktat proposed by outsiders. It was designed by people who do not have skin in the game. It will go nowhere.


Still, it is out there now. Have at it.
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Old 01-28-2020, 09:20 PM
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Somebody pat Jared on the back.
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Old 01-28-2020, 09:23 PM
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I see I managed to mangle another thread title.


Did you know Senior White House Adviser Jared was in high school on 9-11?
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Old 01-28-2020, 09:26 PM
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Did you know Senior White House Adviser Jared was in high school on 9-11?
The restraining order was still pending, I guess.
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Old 01-28-2020, 09:31 PM
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Netanyahu seems to be eager to press forward with the plan so this might turn out to be just a second partition. Not exactly sure how peace will result with this strategy though.
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Old 01-28-2020, 10:41 PM
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Plan is Dead on Arrival.

At the same time the reality is there's probably never going to be any agreement that Palestine signs off on, including ones dramatically more beneficial to the Palestinians. Likewise there's little chance Israel ever gives up some of its larger settlements or withdraws completely from Palestine.

It's basically just a "soft" Crimea or Tibet situation, where on paper the international community will hand wring about it but this situation will likely never change in a meaningful sense.

There's just too many deep seated divisions and cultural issues at play that would somehow have to change, before this situation ever fixes.

Now we can make fun of Kushner's plan because it's a silly plan worse than many proposed before it, but at the same time it's probably realistic to just accept this problem has no "solutions" that don't include a whole lot of time passing and dramatic shifts in Israeli and Palestinian society.
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Old 01-29-2020, 02:10 AM
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The fact that this proposal for permanent colonial status is what now passes for a "two-state" plan shows just how little hope there is of an actual resolution.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 01-29-2020 at 02:11 AM.
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Old 01-29-2020, 02:39 AM
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The tunnel would have to be about 25 miles long, wot? That's starting to sneak up on Chunnel-scale engineering. Even if this project cost a tenth of the Chunnel, adjusted for inflation that's got to be nearly £1-2 billion, or sneaking up towards $2.5 billion USD.
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Old 01-29-2020, 04:04 AM
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Who cares? The Palestinians won't give it a second's thought, and everybody knows it. Netanyahu can announce to the world that he accepts it in order to make himself look good and it won't cost him a thing.
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Old 01-29-2020, 04:24 AM
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Note that Netanyahu was indicted yesterday on three counts of corruption, after being forced to waive his sovereign immunity. Nobody cares about the peace plan, except inasmuch as it impacts his political future and the elections in March.
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Old 01-29-2020, 05:31 AM
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I see I managed to mangle another thread title.
Oh, Peace Plane sounding louder
Ride on the Peace Plane
Hoo-ah-eeh-ah-hoo-ah
Come on the Peace Plane.
Yes, Peace Plane's a holy roller
Everyone jump on the Peace Plane
Hoo-ah-eeh-ah-hoo-ah
Come on the Peace Plane
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Old 01-29-2020, 08:56 AM
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At least the Saffers had a catchy name for what they made.
Bantustan.

I am sure the Israelis and Americans can come up with something.
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Old 01-29-2020, 09:01 AM
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It just boggles my mind that anyone thought they could come up with a plan to solve this problem without consulting the Palestinians. No matter which side you come down on, you have to at least admit that getting buy-in from all parties is essential to making any plan work.

These guys have drunk so much of their own Kool-Aid they apparently can't even see this most basic fact of reality.
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Old 01-29-2020, 09:20 AM
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It just boggles my mind that anyone thought they could come up with a plan to solve this problem without consulting the Palestinians. No matter which side you come down on, you have to at least admit that getting buy-in from all parties is essential to making any plan work.

These guys have drunk so much of their own Kool-Aid they apparently can't even see this most basic fact of reality.
That may be true for Trump and his gang - the full depths of their stupidity has yet to be plumbed - but it definitely doesn't apply to Netanyahu. Bibi is doing this purely because he can't say no to Trump and because he hopes that it will make him look like a peacemaker (although not too much like a peacemaker, otherwise he'd lose votes from the right). If there were any chance whatsoever that the Palestinians would accept the plan, Bibi wouldn't have backed it.

(Contrary to popular opinion and his own crafted image, this isn't because Netanyahu is some far-right ideologue. He isn't one. Quite the opposite: he's a moderate conservative in the worst possible sense, someone who will threaten and bluster and then act to preserve the status quo at all costs. He wants absolutely nothing to change, ever, so long as it keeps him in charge).

Last edited by Alessan; 01-29-2020 at 09:24 AM.
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Old 01-29-2020, 09:35 AM
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That may be true for Trump and his gang - the full depths of their stupidity has yet to be plumbed - but it definitely doesn't apply to Netanyahu.


Yeah, I was referring to the Trumpistas there. It's no surprise that the people on the ground in Israel are playing Trump like a fiddle for their own purposes. But Trump et al. apparently really believed that they could waltz in an solve one of the worst problems of the last century with their simplistic nonsense.

I suppose at this point in his presidency, that shouldn't surprise me, and yet, it still does.....
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Old 01-29-2020, 09:41 AM
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It just boggles my mind that anyone thought they could come up with a plan to solve this problem without consulting the Palestinians. No matter which side you come down on, you have to at least admit that getting buy-in from all parties is essential to making any plan work.

These guys have drunk so much of their own Kool-Aid they apparently can't even see this most basic fact of reality.
I don't think they're planning on solving it. The plan is purely for the domestic politics of Trump and Netanyahu. There are probably already campaign ads touting the peace plan.
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Old 01-29-2020, 09:48 AM
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Just thinking out loud, Netanyahu may take this chance to annex the West Bank. He will then have a year ... or more before the Americans will raise a fuss.
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Old 01-29-2020, 09:58 AM
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Middle East Peace Plane


Something of this quality of design needs to have the term MAX associated with it.
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Old 01-29-2020, 10:39 AM
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The tunnel would have to be about 25 miles long, wot? That's starting to sneak up on Chunnel-scale engineering. Even if this project cost a tenth of the Chunnel, adjusted for inflation that's got to be nearly £1-2 billion, or sneaking up towards $2.5 billion USD.
There's no point trying to guess the cost by comparing it to an underwater tunnel that's twice as long.
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Old 01-29-2020, 10:48 AM
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Just thinking out loud, Netanyahu may take this chance to annex the West Bank. He will then have a year ... or more before the Americans will raise a fuss.
Wouldn't various groups of people become rather violent if Israel annexed the West Bank? Suicide attacks with shovels, a hundred at a time?
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Old 01-29-2020, 10:52 AM
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It just boggles my mind that anyone thought they could come up with a plan to solve this problem without consulting the Palestinians. No matter which side you come down on, you have to at least admit that getting buy-in from all parties is essential to making any plan work.
From the perspective of Trump and his inner circle, the plan isn't supposed to work. It's just suppose to exist and be Israel-friendly. That appeals to Trumpists, especially the really, really hard core Christian fanatics who have a weird thing for Israel. Many Trumpists will simply come to believe this peace plan was actually implemented and is working, just as they really believe that there's a wall Mexico is paying for, and that North Korea is a great friend now. It's purely a political signal.
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Old 01-29-2020, 11:01 AM
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There's no point trying to guess the cost by comparing it to an underwater tunnel that's twice as long.
A quick Google indicates that the Chunnel is about 31 miles long. I don't think 31 is twice as long as 25 (assuming that the tunnel would be close to 25 miles)
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Old 01-29-2020, 11:06 AM
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I read the longest tunnel on the Trump plan is about 34km, Chunnel is 50km. So not twice, but much longer and a completely different challenge to digging under the ocean.

Eta: but it would still be ridiculously expensive and apparently the plan doesn't discuss who would pay for it. I assume Mexico.

Last edited by CarnalK; 01-29-2020 at 11:08 AM.
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Old 01-29-2020, 11:08 AM
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From the perspective of Trump and his inner circle, the plan isn't supposed to work. It's just suppose to exist and be Israel-friendly. That appeals to Trumpists, especially the really, really hard core Christian fanatics who have a weird thing for Israel. Many Trumpists will simply come to believe this peace plan was actually implemented and is working, just as they really believe that there's a wall Mexico is paying for, and that North Korea is a great friend now. It's purely a political signal.


And that's part of what boggles my mind. Even if I'm charitable enough to assume that Trump et al. are just coming up with "plans" to sell to the rubes, I'm amazed that enough of the rubes are stupid enough that this plan, the one that is so obviously going to fail, will still convince them.

It's like, if you asked me to build you a ladder to get on your roof, and I showed up with a 20-foot ladder that has only one rung, that's halfway up the ladder, and expected you to still pay me. It's so obviously stupid! If I was going to try to scam you with a cheap fake ladder so I could skim extra profits, I'd at least make it look like a real ladder, even if the materials were such crap that it would fall apart if you tried to use it. It would have to be at least real-looking enough to fool you long enough for me to drive away with your money in my pocket.

I mean, wasn't there even one Palestinian they could bribe to sit with them and agree with them, just to make it look good?
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Old 01-29-2020, 11:18 AM
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CarnalK:

Quote:
but it would still be ridiculously expensive and apparently the plan doesn't discuss who would pay for it. I assume Mexico.
Hamas has become pretty good at digging tunnels into Israeli territory. I don't know who's paying them to do that, but maybe they can bankroll these tunnels.
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Old 01-29-2020, 11:21 AM
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You can't come up with a plan that has a prayer of working when you exclude one of the players from the discussions. Of course it's dead on arrival as it should be. Tunnels? Are you serious?
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Old 01-29-2020, 11:45 AM
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The Trump Middle East Peace Plane
Put all the leaders of all the assorted Middle East factions on one plane and fly them around until they either kill each other off or come to agreement?

That might actually work . . .

except that a) any agreement would come apart again as soon as they got off the plane and b) in the meantime new leaders and quite possibly new factions would have popped up on the ground. And of course c), you'd never get them all on that plane in the first place.

I don't know if there is any way of solving this one. It's a horrendous mess.
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Old 01-29-2020, 12:20 PM
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There's no point trying to guess the cost by comparing it to an underwater tunnel that's twice as long.
Even to guesstimate one tenth of the cost? Well, excuse the hell out of me. A casual search finds various billion-dollar tunnel projects all over the world, so feel free to pick one that's not underwater. Of course, most of those tunnels meant for transportation (as opposed to aquaducts) are within or between major urban centers that have populations larger than all of Palestine, so not only would this tunnel be very expensive to build and maintain, but it couldn't possibly convey enough people on a daily basis to be worthwhile unless every single user pays a $100 toll in which case you might pay it off sometime in the mid 22nd-century.
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Old 01-30-2020, 02:24 AM
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I didn't give the Twerp Kushner's plan enough dignity to click on a link, but ...
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The tunnel would have to be about 25 miles long, wot? ...
It is horridly pathetic and dreadfully absurd that borders require tunnels or overpasses to prevent contact. (Yes, I realize there already are underpasses and overpasses to connect Palestinian villages without infringing on the surface of the precious enclaves Israel has stolen conquered because God told them to.)
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Old 01-30-2020, 02:37 AM
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Not to humor this fake plan any more than it deserves, but my assumption is that the "tunnel" would just be a cut-and-cover ditch, so it could probably be a lot cheaper than the Channel Tunnel.
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Old 01-30-2020, 02:42 AM
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The tunnel would have to be about 25 miles long, wot? That's starting to sneak up on Chunnel-scale engineering. Even if this project cost a tenth of the Chunnel, adjusted for inflation that's got to be nearly £1-2 billion, or sneaking up towards $2.5 billion USD.
Has there ever been a tunnel that traveled underneath a different country than the ones it connects? Would the tunnel be considered Palestinian territory or Israeli territory?
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Old 01-30-2020, 08:13 AM
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Put all the leaders of all the assorted Middle East factions on one plane and fly them around until they either kill each other off or come to agreement?

That might actually work . . .

except that a) any agreement would come apart again as soon as they got off the plane and b) in the meantime new leaders and quite possibly new factions would have popped up on the ground. And of course c), you'd never get them all on that plane in the first place.

I don't know if there is any way of solving this one. It's a horrendous mess.
You've misunderstood. The idea is to put them all on one plane, then calculate their respective vectors and derivate peace from the graph.
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Old 01-30-2020, 08:34 AM
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Not to humor this fake plan any more than it deserves, but my assumption is that the "tunnel" would just be a cut-and-cover ditch, so it could probably be a lot cheaper than the Channel Tunnel.
Considering that it would be passing under any number of Israeli towns, farmlands and highways, it would probably be cheaper just to dig it deep. Considering the amount of bureaucracy involved, it would definitely be faster.
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Old 01-30-2020, 10:30 AM
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Has there ever been a tunnel that traveled underneath a different country than the ones it connects? Would the tunnel be considered Palestinian territory or Israeli territory?
I don't know, it looks like this plan took a left turn at Albuquerque.
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Old 01-30-2020, 12:18 PM
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If the tunnel was ever built, it would be a prime target for destruction. It would be a symbol of a hamfisted US-Israeli forced division of land. How about we get someone with experience started with honest negotiations and not the pinheaded son-in-law of a halfwit?
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Old 01-30-2020, 01:46 PM
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Well, you’re going to have division of land no matter what you do. You can’t unify Gaza and the West Bank without splitting Israel, so if you believe in a two-state solution, at least one of those states is going to have to be divided.
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Old 01-30-2020, 01:55 PM
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Well, youíre going to have division of land no matter what you do. You canít unify Gaza and the West Bank without splitting Israel, so if you believe in a two-state solution, at least one of those states is going to have to be divided.
What if, just spitballing here, they don't unify Gaza and the West Bank? Set each up as semi-independent mini-states with the option to be re-absorbed by Jordan or Egypt? Could either of them sustain a weak but viable economy (I expect Gaza would have an advantage because of its seaports)? Is Palestinian nationalism really a thing?
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Old 01-30-2020, 02:09 PM
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It is.

One key turning point in the conflict was during the Israeli-Egyptian peace talks leading up to the Camp David accords in the late 1970s. Israel wanted Egypt to take the Gaza strip along with the Sinai, Egypt refused, and unfortunately, Jimmy Carter took the Egyptians’ side. Another missed opportunity in a long history of them.
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Old 01-30-2020, 02:24 PM
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Anyway, Israel would love it if the Jordanians and Egyptians took responsibility for the Territories. The Palestinians, not so much.
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Old 01-30-2020, 02:26 PM
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How much would you have to pay Egypt and Jordan to take these territories and assume responsibility for them? Is there any amount, or do they view them as ultimate boondoggles?
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Old 01-30-2020, 02:39 PM
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...shner.amp.html
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Old 01-30-2020, 02:50 PM
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One of these days, I'll have to bite the bullet and buy my way past the New York Times paywall.

It's not a big bullet, of course, I spend more each week on electricity just from being too lazy to shut my computer off.
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Old 01-30-2020, 03:14 PM
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Hey, I haven't paid for it either. For some reason, I can read the NYT for free on my phone, but not on my PC.

Anyway, look up "The Jordanian Option".
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Old 01-30-2020, 10:38 PM
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Anyway, Israel would love it if the Jordanians and Egyptians took responsibility for the Territories. The Palestinians, not so much.
Well, yeah, if by "took responsibility for" you mean "declared sovereignty over and denied the indigenous inhabitants self-determination". The Palestinians in general don't want to be Jordanians or Egyptians living in "West Jordan" or "East Egypt". They want to be citizens of their native land.
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Old 01-31-2020, 12:30 AM
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The Palestinians in general don't want to be Jordanians or Egyptians living in "West Jordan" or "East Egypt". They want to be citizens of their native land.
Witness for example Black September.
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Old 01-31-2020, 03:53 AM
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Black September - which was the Jordanians' response to an attempted coup by the PLO - is one of the reasons why the Jordanians don't want unification with the West Bank

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Well, yeah, if by "took responsibility for" you mean "declared sovereignty over and denied the indigenous inhabitants self-determination". The Palestinians in general don't want to be Jordanians or Egyptians living in "West Jordan" or "East Egypt". They want to be citizens of their native land.
The problem is, they define their "native land" as including places like Tel Aviv and Haifa, which they're never going to control and never going to return to. Considering that they're never going to get everything they want, being party of a a unified Palestine-Jordan, or being citizens of a regional power like Egypt, sounds like a pretty good solution. Maybe not in terms of national rights, but definitely in terms of individual rights.
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Old 01-31-2020, 10:59 AM
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Well, yeah, if by "took responsibility for" you mean "declared sovereignty over and denied the indigenous inhabitants self-determination". The Palestinians in general don't want to be Jordanians or Egyptians living in "West Jordan" or "East Egypt". They want to be citizens of their native land.
Keep in mind countries like Jordan, Lebanon, Syria etc have no history of strong national identity. These countries didn’t exist in their modern form until the 1940s. Before that they were within provinces of the Ottoman Empire (and after the Empire collapsed they spent a generation under Western “protection”), and lots of those provinces had their boundaries redrawn regularly. Not to mention historically a significant portion of their ancestors lived a bedouin lifestyle with no fixed homes. These were societies much more centered around day to day life being built around a clan/tribal customary system. Interaction with their Ottoman suzerains was kept to a minimum for the mutual benefit of both sides.

For this particular reason it’s always been patently obvious if the West was going to impose a European conception of modern Nationstate-hood on peoples who had never really lived under that paradigm, we could’ve done a lot better job crafting these states and their boundaries than we did.

At this point the Palestinians have been occupied and disempowered for so long that it’s actually probably caused them to develop a sort if national identity, albeit one based around mutual misery. I don’t think it’s a realistic solution in 2020 but back in 47-48 they definitely should’ve just had the lands that make up Palestine be grouped with the other various Arab states that surround Israel. The UN Mandate lines for Israel/Palestine were essentially guaranteed to never work.

Last edited by Martin Hyde; 01-31-2020 at 11:00 AM.
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Old 01-31-2020, 04:29 PM
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just realized the thread title says "plane" and not "plan". OP are you subtly suggesting what Kusher really wants - to put them on a plane and get them the hell out of there? LOL

The plan is bound to work. As Kushner said, "Previous plans were 2-3 pages. Ours is 80 pages with a map. Never been done before"

I'm not joking.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1222516374427316224
  #49  
Old 01-31-2020, 09:56 PM
carnivorousplant is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Mabes View Post
just realized the thread title says "plane" and not "plan". OP are you subtly suggesting what Kusher really wants - to put them on a plane and get them the hell out of there? LOL

The plan is bound to work. As Kushner said, "Previous plans were 2-3 pages. Ours is 80 pages with a map. Never been done before"

I'm not joking.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1222516374427316224
How can someone with so much money be so stupid?
  #50  
Old 02-01-2020, 10:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
How about we get someone with experience started with honest negotiations
Yes, that has worked swell every time it's been tried.
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