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Old 02-03-2020, 10:01 PM
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Iowa Caucus Discussion


Didn't see any thread yet for the official start to the presidential race

I really hope Amy Klobucher makes a good showing. Listening to NPR it sounded like Iowans had some interest in her.

Results get released soon.
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Old 02-03-2020, 10:13 PM
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I believe a CNN article said about 65% of caucus goers identify as somewhat liberal or very liberal. So I expect a good turnout for Sanders and Warren. However I don't know if that number is for the entire state or just more liberal college areas.
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Old 02-03-2020, 10:41 PM
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I'll just say that I would be satisfied with Bernie as the nominee. I like Warren, too. For centrists, I'd go Klobuchar or maybe even Buttijeg over Biden, though I would pick Biden over Trump. I would vote Bloomberg over Trump, or any of the other remaining D candidates.

Anyway, NPR says it could be a record turnout, so I guess we'll see what is the zeal vote(?).
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Old 02-03-2020, 10:45 PM
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I'll just say that I would be satisfied with Bernie as the nominee. I like Warren, too. For centrists, I'd go Klobuchar or maybe even Buttijeg over Biden, though I would pick Biden over Trump. I would vote Bloomberg over Trump, or any of the other remaining D candidates.
My list is pretty similar, although I'd continue it:

Sanders
Warren
Klobuchar
Buttigieg
Biden
Bloomberg
Romney
Zombie McCain
Kasich
Rubio
Coronavirus
Trump
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Old 02-03-2020, 10:48 PM
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Everyone here knows I’m a Pete supporter. This delay is maddening. I hate caucuses and I’m well aware of the crazy delegate selection process.

Hoping Pete pulls a win or a very strong second.
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Old 02-03-2020, 10:49 PM
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The only person I wouldn't vote for over Trump is someone worse than Trump.

Either more evil/incompetent/dangerous, or someone just as evil but more competent.
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Old 02-03-2020, 11:32 PM
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OK, so what's this long ongoing delay?
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Old 02-03-2020, 11:41 PM
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My list is pretty similar, although I'd continue it:

Sanders
Warren
Klobuchar
Buttigieg
Biden
Bloomberg
Romney
Zombie McCain
Kasich
Rubio
Coronavirus
Trump
Yah well, what if it were Trump v. Zombie Hitler with Putin somehow as his running mate, while Dylan Roof ran 3rd party from death row?
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Old 02-03-2020, 11:43 PM
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OK, so what's this long ongoing delay?
From what I understand, neither the apps that have been implemented to report the caucus results nor the phone lines are working. Quite the shitshow the Iowa Dems have on their hands.

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Originally Posted by Try2B Comprehensive
Anyway, NPR says it could be a record turnout, so I guess we'll see what is the zeal vote(?).
I'm hearing the turnout is nothing spectacular. Nothing like what they were expecting.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 02-03-2020 at 11:44 PM.
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Old 02-03-2020, 11:44 PM
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Allegedly, there's some issue with the app they were supposed to use. Last I heard, just a few minutes ago, they're adding them up by hand (or calculator, anyway) and sending the results in via telephone.

I'm not the only Iowan who wonders if some hacking and/or interference is going on.
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Old 02-03-2020, 11:47 PM
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Allegedly, there's some issue with the app they were supposed to use. Last I heard, just a few minutes ago, they're adding them up by hand (or calculator, anyway) and sending the results in via telephone.

I'm not the only Iowan who wonders if some hacking and/or interference is going on.
I've also heard that the landlines are down at the headquarters, so they're having people text pictures of the results into the state director.
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:11 AM
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FWIW, Trump got 97% of the vote in his caucus, which is disappointing. So no real primary challenge to him.
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:20 AM
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I've also heard that the landlines are down at the headquarters, so they're having people text pictures of the results into the state director.
Oh, brother.
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:23 AM
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I've also heard that the landlines are down at the headquarters, so they're having people text pictures of the results into the state director.
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Originally Posted by nearwildheaven View Post
Oh, brother.
Ok, apparently I misremembered what I had read:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Politico
Polk County precinct chairs were being advised to take pictures of caucus results and text them to the Polk County executive director who is driving them to the party headquarters, according to a Democratic operative familiar with the situation.
But still, they're texting pictures of the results in.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 02-04-2020 at 12:23 AM.
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:28 AM
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first election machinery hack? I'm thinking "nah" but
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:36 AM
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Hi! Out of 125 registered Dems in my precinct... 17 showed up. I was the only Sanders person other than the nice guy from Washington (the State) who was out caucusing/door knocking etc. for Bernie. He didn't get to vote, of course.

Warren was close but didn't have the 5 warm bodies to make it to the second round.

Buttigieg had 2 people.

I reluctantly moved to the Biden group.

At the end of the night Biden and Klobuchar each got a delegate to send to the State caucus.
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:37 AM
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Buttigieg continues to be a far more charismatic and appealing speaker than any of the others.
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:39 AM
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Iowa caucus goer here. Luckily, things went smoothly at my precinct. The counts all added up to the correct totals, so no problems. We ended up with the delegates going 2-2-2-1, for Sanders, Pete, Warren, and the 1 to Biden.

It seems many precincts had issues due to 2 main problems: first, the app didn’t work. So if they were relying on the app to get counts and report them, they were sunk and had to come up with a new system. At our precinct, they relied on a spreadsheet that did the math instead of the app. The math all worked out. No coin flips.

Second, there’s a new double check system involving preference cards and making sure the card count matches the candidate group counts and that all the totals match up. Sounds like it should be simple right? But keep in mind this process goes on a couple hours and something little like a person slipping out and going home without telling anybody messes up the count.

Finally, there was a new rule that if your candidate was viable you weren’t allowed to change in the realignments. This wasn’t well explained in many precincts and led to some confusion.
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:41 AM
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Oh one thing that surprised me, some of the Steyer supporters and Yang supporters at our precinct decided not to realign and left after initial count.
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:46 AM
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I'm pleasantly surprised about Pete's showing. If you can believe the numbers that were shown.
I guess it's unknown really.
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:47 AM
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I heard that from other people - that people whose candidate wasn't viable went home instead of moving during re-alignment.
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:48 AM
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Oh one thing that surprised me, some of the Steyer supporters and Yang supporters at our precinct decided not to realign and left after initial count.
Wouldn’t surprise me from the Yang people, they’re a unique cult.

Didn’t even know there were Steyer supporters
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Old 02-04-2020, 01:13 AM
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Sanders campaign reportedly about to release their internal calculations of the result.
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Old 02-04-2020, 01:27 AM
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A bunch of us did a road trip to Iowa to see how messy democracy could be.

But it wasn't, on the local level. We hit a small town tavern and found a surprisingly big group of Iowans wearing PETE gear, big Biden and Sanders camps, Warren and Klobuchar finally got enough to "be viable"... after the Steyer folks gave up and joined Amy's group.

And the one old lady with a hand-scrawled Yang sign joined her daughter in the Warren corner.

But my god, the people were great! The Impeachment "Trial" had sapped my belief in people, tonight restored it. Each group gave speeches and tried to get recruits... so much passion for the ideals this country was founded on.
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Old 02-04-2020, 01:30 AM
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Sanders campaign reportedly about to release their internal calculations of the result.
Here are his results:

Sanders 29.66%
Pete 24.59%
Warren 21.24%
Biden 12.37%

These are the calculations from the Sanders campaign. Not official.

Last edited by hajario; 02-04-2020 at 01:31 AM.
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Old 02-04-2020, 01:39 AM
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Whoever wins won't get any sort of bump. There will be no address to the cheering supporters or anything of the sort because of this vote counting debacle. I understand that there were app problems, but they could have had a messenger boy carry them to headquarters by this time.
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Old 02-04-2020, 01:43 AM
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Cue my simmering anger that a goofy system in Iowa has so much power over the rest of the country.
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Old 02-04-2020, 01:49 AM
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I also wonder if there weren't some caucus sites that totally screwed up the realignment process. In the past, all of this error and intrigue happened internally within the precinct, but the new transparency means that the whole sausage-making process is on display.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 02-04-2020 at 01:50 AM.
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Old 02-04-2020, 01:53 AM
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Here are his results:

Sanders 29.66%
Pete 24.59%
Warren 21.24%
Biden 12.37%

These are the calculations from the Sanders campaign. Not official.
Whoa. If those are even close to accurate, that’s awesome. Per Nate Silver, that result gives Bernie a 64% chance of winning the nomination.

I’m going to take a tentative victory shot and go to bed.
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Old 02-04-2020, 01:54 AM
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Informal reports seem to suggest this was a good night for Bernie/Pete and a bad one for Biden in which case this mess will benefit them in reverse order by throwing confusion on the whole caucus. If the real numbers are anything like those internal calculations, Biden dodged a huge bullet.

It also represents a huge failure for the Democratic party particularly in Iowa. Reporting the results of a caucus is a simple task. If some new app was being tried, it should have been thoroughly tested and there should also have been a foolproof backup in place.

The whole Iowa caucus is a nutty system anyway and if this disaster leads to it being scrapped or heavily modified I suppose something good would have come out of it.
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Old 02-04-2020, 01:56 AM
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MSNBC running Yang’s speech on tape now. “The Yang Gang has shocked the world so many times before!”

Um...when was that again?
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:00 AM
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I also wonder if there weren't some caucus sites that totally screwed up the realignment process. In the past, all of this error and intrigue happened internally within the precinct, but the new transparency means that the whole sausage-making process is on display.
If I understand correctly, the process remains the same, it is just that the poll workers are taking a count on the first round of voting, no?

IOW, it's a two step process. There are speeches and then a vote* is taken. Any candidate who doesn't get 15% of the precinct vote is cut and that candidate's voters, after another round of speeches, can join another candidate's group or go home.

That's the same as it has always been expect the Dems this year wanted to get a count of the first raw vote.

Even with an app failure, it should seem trivially easy to send a bunch of emails to the county clerk.




*Not a secret ballot, but the voters actually stand together.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:01 AM
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It also represents a huge failure for the Democratic party particularly in Iowa. Reporting the results of a caucus is a simple task. If some new app was being tried, it should have been thoroughly tested and there should also have been a foolproof backup in place.
When it comes to counting votes, there’s never any need for anything more high-tech than simple paper ballots. Never.

Stupid technocratic cunts and their pointless fucking apps. I hope they die in a car fire.

Last edited by Unreconstructed Man; 02-04-2020 at 02:02 AM.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:05 AM
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Also, this farce really puts Trump’s brain farts into perspective, doesn’t it? I mean, what’s worse, not knowing where Kansas City is, or making a total fuck up off the first caucus of the year?

Last edited by Unreconstructed Man; 02-04-2020 at 02:06 AM.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:07 AM
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If I were the conspiracy type, and I'm not, I'd suspicious that this whole debacle was a way of blunting Bernie's momentum.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:11 AM
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“How can you vote for Trump? He’s a complete moron” would be a powerful argument if it couldn’t so easily be countered with “How can you vote for a Democrat? They can’t even organise a piss-up in a brewery”
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:14 AM
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If I understand correctly, the process remains the same, it is just that the poll workers are taking a count on the first round of voting, no?
No, the process was changed in at least one way (banning supporters of viable candidates from re-aligning, and thus allowing them to go home sooner). I've seen some (obviously anecdotal and unverified) reports that one of the issues is that if people left between the first and second rounds, having supported a viable candidate, they weren't being counted in the second round, even though they should be under the new rules.

Also, the process was opaque and byzantine before this year, it's just that there were no receipts to prove that people didn't know WTF they were doing. AFAIK, the precinct called in the "delegate equivalents" to the state party, and that was that. Now they're sending in all the numbers, and those could conceivably be obviously wrong (for instance, if the number of supporters for a viable candidate went down between rounds, or if a candidate was non-viable but still got a delegate). (But thankfully there are now some written ballot-like papers that could be used to approximate a recount, I guess.)

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 02-04-2020 at 02:17 AM.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:21 AM
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You only had one job .....


Seriously Iowa is in the public eye once every four years and they managed to mess it up. This is almost certainly just a stupid screwup, but it does show us how shaky out voting systems are. “It makes you think.”
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:23 AM
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:26 AM
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Oh one thing that surprised me, some of the Steyer supporters and Yang supporters at our precinct decided not to realign and left after initial count.
CNN had a live feed from Drake University, and they sent an "Undecided" delegate because a group of Booker supporters weren't budging.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:28 AM
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If I were the conspiracy type, and I'm not, I'd suspicious that this whole debacle was a way of blunting Bernie's momentum.
Even when Bernie is likely to win or finish a strong second, it’s a conspiracy?
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:30 AM
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This is so absurd I can't help but to laugh. Jeez!

I feel like this is a bad omen of many things to come for the Democratic party,.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:40 AM
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CNN had a live feed from Drake University, and they sent an "Undecided" delegate because a group of Booker supporters weren't budging.
Hey, uncommitted won in 1976.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:46 AM
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Hopefully what this means is that the caucus system will not be used any longer. I understand the appeal: people working together, negotiating, American values in full flourish. The process is also discriminatory, however. It prevents a large number of people from participating by sheer logistics, which is... that's right, voter suppression. Iowa can and should do better.
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Old 02-04-2020, 03:12 AM
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You only had one job .....


Seriously Iowa is in the public eye once every four years and they managed to mess it up. This is almost certainly just a stupid screwup, but it does show us how shaky out voting systems are. “It makes you think.”
Hopefully it also sounds a death knell for anyone who was planning to expand a voting-app system to an even bigger scale on Election Day nationwide. That is begging for hacking or accusations of hacking.
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Old 02-04-2020, 03:28 AM
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Good old Pete 'I definitely didn't work for the CIA' Buttigieg trying to steal the limelight with all the confusion going on and completely undermining a Sanders victory, I guess the good thing is Bidens results are looking disasterous, he isn't a viable candidate.
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Old 02-04-2020, 03:32 AM
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You will recall that a few years ago Iowa managed to tell Romney he won only to change it a week or so later. Rick Santorum was the big winner. Both of these facts seem to indicate that Iowa cannot be trusted to be so important in the process.
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Old 02-04-2020, 03:41 AM
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Oh, and the Des Moines Register screwed up their most important poll.
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Old 02-04-2020, 04:10 AM
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If Sanders' numbers are correct (he released his campaign's own internal count tonight), Biden may not even qualify for the next debate, if I understand the rules correctly. He's at 12.3%, with Bernie at 29%, Buttigieg at 24%, and Warren at .21%.

If those numbers are close to real, Biden is in big trouble.
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Old 02-04-2020, 04:18 AM
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Last time Trump got so hard there were urinating hookers in the room.
If there is a split in the Dem party Trump wins in a landslide.

Last edited by AK84; 02-04-2020 at 04:20 AM.
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