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  #51  
Old 02-04-2020, 04:54 AM
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first election machinery hack? I'm thinking "nah" but

Probably not but ---- like you ----- just for some reason this time I suspect the DNC side. As I sit here at this hour of the AM my guess is that their preferred results were not the actual results. Being a Bernie fan last cycle and again this cycle (although Bloomberg has my attention) I trust them about as much as I trust Trump. And I am watching what happens in the course of the day for more than just the results.
  #52  
Old 02-04-2020, 05:46 AM
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Probably not but ---- like you ----- just for some reason this time I suspect the DNC side. As I sit here at this hour of the AM my guess is that their preferred results were not the actual results. Being a Bernie fan last cycle and again this cycle (although Bloomberg has my attention) I trust them about as much as I trust Trump. And I am watching what happens in the course of the day for more than just the results.
The DNC has nothing to do with Iowa. Next conspiracy, please.
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  #53  
Old 02-04-2020, 05:50 AM
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Good old Pete 'I definitely didn't work for the CIA' Buttigieg trying to steal the limelight with all the confusion going on and completely undermining a Sanders victory, I guess the good thing is Bidens results are looking disasterous, he isn't a viable candidate.
Cite?
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  #54  
Old 02-04-2020, 05:54 AM
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If Sanders' numbers are correct (he released his campaign's own internal count tonight), Biden may not even qualify for the next debate, if I understand the rules correctly. He's at 12.3%, with Bernie at 29%, Buttigieg at 24%, and Warren at .21%.

If those numbers are close to real, Biden is in big trouble.
That is not correct. There are multiple ways to qualify for the next debate including polling and picking up pledged delegates. Biden has the poll numbers already.
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  #55  
Old 02-04-2020, 05:58 AM
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first election machinery hack? I'm thinking "nah" but
Wrong. There are no machines. People group by their preferred candidate in a caucus. They are counted and photos taken to verify this. The problem is in the communication of the numbers, not the actual mechanism of the caucuses.
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  #56  
Old 02-04-2020, 06:22 AM
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had no idea Larry, Curly and Moe were alive and running the Dem caucus in Iowa
  #57  
Old 02-04-2020, 06:49 AM
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I clicked on the news just now to discover that the Democratic caucus in Iowa was ******. The Ds should be ********, ********* and ******-****** for this travesty. (Sorry not to be more explicit, but I'm still getting Warnings for insults.)

Do any Americans still know how to do column addition? Aren't there any dime stores in Iowa that sell pencils and paper? "I can't add 7 plus 4 because my phone charger's broken."

Shame!
  #58  
Old 02-04-2020, 07:05 AM
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I clicked on the news just now to discover that the Democratic caucus in Iowa was ******. The Ds should be ********, ********* and ******-****** for this travesty. (Sorry not to be more explicit, but I'm still getting Warnings for insults.)

Do any Americans still know how to do column addition? Aren't there any dime stores in Iowa that sell pencils and paper? "I can't add 7 plus 4 because my phone charger's broken."

Shame!
From what I can gather the problem was not in adding up the numbers. The problem was in sending those results to the state Democratic headquarters.

ETA. ISTM that this does show Democrats are more disorganized than I thought. I am now a lot more worried about a Trump victory.

Last edited by FlikTheBlue; 02-04-2020 at 07:07 AM.
  #59  
Old 02-04-2020, 07:12 AM
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... Being a Bernie fan last cycle and again this cycle (although Bloomberg has my attention) ...
That’s an interesting and uncommon mix!
  #60  
Old 02-04-2020, 07:29 AM
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ETA. ISTM that this does show Democrats are more disorganized than I thought. I am now a lot more worried about a Trump victory.
To be fair, it means the Iowa Democratic leadership is disorganized. There’s no evidence that the DNC is involved.

On the other, someone on CNN just actually said, “You had ONE job...”
  #61  
Old 02-04-2020, 07:35 AM
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It's time for party authorities at the national level to exert their influence so that Iowa and New Hampshire are no longer the first contests.

This "tradition" has become an entrenched entitlement that works against the interests of the Democrats in the general election, not least because the results are so unrepresentative.

Apparently Iowa even has a state law that its caucus must come before any other state's primary. However, the national party has ways of penalizing Iowa if it refuses to budge from that position.
  #62  
Old 02-04-2020, 07:37 AM
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I think the simplest explanation is the most plausible- they got themselves an app that wasn't ready for prime time and used it. It doesn't sound terribly difficult to program but somehow somebody messed up.

I predict whatever the results, the Bernie Bros will whine about being cheated because that's what Bernie Bros do. Even if he wins big, you have to discount it slightly because of the lack of diversity in the state. Sanders and Buttigieg can win big with white liberals, but can they compete for the "Reagan Democrats" the way Biden can?
  #63  
Old 02-04-2020, 07:43 AM
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Apparently Iowa even has a state law that its caucus must come before any other state's primary. However, the national party has ways of penalizing Iowa if it refuses to budge from that position.
Does the Democratic Party have a legal obligation to accept the results of the caucus?
  #64  
Old 02-04-2020, 08:00 AM
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I think the simplest explanation is the most plausible- they got themselves an app that wasn't ready for prime time and used it. It doesn't sound terribly difficult to program but somehow somebody messed up.
It's a common flaw, not testing.

You may or may not recall that the Romney campaign in 2012 had a program - I believe called ORCA, God help me - that they believed would assure them victory by allowed agile responsiveness to voter turnout trends on E-Day. They were shocked it didn't work properly.

https://www.politico.com/story/2012/...-afloat-083653

Blame it on American's belief in using technology to solve problems that aren't really problems. Hell, blame it on persuasive salesmen fooling people in buying something they don't need.

All I know is the campaigns should sue the Iowa Party claiming harm based on incompetence.
  #65  
Old 02-04-2020, 08:01 AM
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Does the Democratic Party have a legal obligation to accept the results of the caucus?
They do not. They have, in the past, threatened to reduce or refuse delegates from states that moved before Iowa or New Hampshire. So the precedent is well-established.
  #66  
Old 02-04-2020, 08:10 AM
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I think the simplest explanation is the most plausible- they got themselves an app that wasn't ready for prime time and used it.
Yeah. I don't know if they paid $4 million for the App, or if it was one of those Apps you get with 3 corn-flakes boxtops and 20 Likes on Facebook. And I don't care.

Look, I used to be the idiot savant hippy boy who fixed "Apps" that nobody else could fix. Don't tell me about Apps. And about how increasingly wretched software has become. (Chances are fair the failing part of the App was its its malicious aspects. Some App-writers wouldn't pass up the chance to grab some emails and passwords.)

When the App fails, Pick up the ****** telephone and say "We've got 26 votes for Amy and 59 votes for the funny guy with white hair!" How hard is it??

When I said nobody can add "7 plus 4" anymore if their smart-phone charger breaks, I was only half joking.
  #67  
Old 02-04-2020, 08:21 AM
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  #68  
Old 02-04-2020, 08:53 AM
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Man, if Russia announces the results before Iowa does I say we burn this whole roach-infested MF to the ground and adopt a nomadic stone-age lifestyle. Seems to be the best socio-political system for N. America.
  #69  
Old 02-04-2020, 08:54 AM
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To be fair, it means the Iowa Democratic leadership is disorganized. There’s no evidence that the DNC is involved.
The NYT says the app was used due to involvement by the DNC:

Quote:
And the party decided to use the app only after another proposal for reporting votes — which entailed having caucus participants call in their votes over the phone — was abandoned, on the advice of Democratic National Committee officials, according to David Jefferson, a board member of Verified Voting, a nonpartisan election integrity organization.

The app was created in the past two months by Shadow Inc., a for-profit technology company, and not properly tested.

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Matt Blaze, a professor of computer science and law at Georgetown, said that introducing apps in the midst of an election posed many problems. Any type of app or program that relies on using a cellphone network to deliver results is vulnerable to problems both on the app and on the phones being used to run it, he said.

“The consensus of all experts who have been thinking about this is unequivocal,” Mr. Blaze added. “Internet and mobile voting should not be used at this time in civil elections.”
  #70  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:00 AM
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I think the simplest explanation is the most plausible- they got themselves an app that wasn't ready for prime time and used it. It doesn't sound terribly difficult to program but somehow somebody messed up.
I heard one county chair say that they went to the training for the app, and, after one failure which was their own fault, everything worked just fine for them.


Working in IT for many years, it is not at all implausible to me that staff in some counties might decide that the training wasn't needed and not attend, with predictable results.
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Old 02-04-2020, 09:04 AM
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I don’t get the outrage. We will know the results eventually, certainly before the convention this summer.
  #72  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:08 AM
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I heard one county chair say that they went to the training for the app, and, after one failure which was their own fault, everything worked just fine for them.


Working in IT for many years, it is not at all implausible to me that staff in some counties might decide that the training wasn't needed and not attend, with predictable results.
Good point. No matter how idiot-proof developers think their apps are, there are always better idiots to prove them wrong. Also the users who need the training the most are the ones who don't think they need it.
  #73  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:13 AM
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They were expecting high turn out, some pundits suggesting it could eclipse 2008 and the turn out for Obama's win. Now it appears turn out is in line with 2016.

More importantly even if it did eclipse 2008, the caucus system is antiquated and a form of voter suppression.
  #74  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:14 AM
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had no idea Larry, Curly and Moe were alive and running the Dem caucus in Iowa
No, just ordinary Democrats. The ones that run Detroit , Baltimore, San Francisco, and St.Louis so well. They made a good case as to why they should be running the country last night.
  #75  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:16 AM
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sadly crap software with not enough testing is common, just ask Boeing
  #76  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:17 AM
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Great, so now some Dems are sufficiently pissed off at other candidates to stay home in November and Republicans are making outrageous voter fraud claims in an election they aren’t even running in. Looking forward to the general.
  #77  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:17 AM
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Whoever wins won't get any sort of bump. There will be no address to the cheering supporters or anything of the sort because of this vote counting debacle. I understand that there were app problems, but they could have had a messenger boy carry them to headquarters by this time.
I read something similar over on CNN's site. This may be true for all I know, as I don't follow Iowa caucus bump statistics but I don't necessarily agree with the idea. First off, the rest of the country, and not even people from New Hampshire, are not riveted to their TV screens waiting for the returns at 10pm on a Monday night. And of course if you were watching you already saw at least Klobuchar* and Buttigieg give "victory" speeches to the people they really matter to, their supporters at the caucus. The results will be released today, only a few hours late, people will know who won, and it seems to me that a week is more than enough time for whomever wins or did well last night to get to New Hampshire and start crowing about their victory, and sending out emails, etc. But again, who knows?

*Yes, even she talked like the one who won the damn thing. And others might have done the same, I just didn't see them.

Last edited by Fiddle Peghead; 02-04-2020 at 09:18 AM.
  #78  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:34 AM
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...*Yes, even she talked like the one who won the damn thing. And others might have done the same, I just didn't see them.
Eh, that was all just pillow talk anyway. They'd both already gotten all they were going to get from Iowa, and they have a date with NH tonight and had to get going. They just wanted their Iowa supporters to feel the love.
  #79  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:36 AM
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There was never a need for an expensive custom app to send a few dozen numbers from point A to point B, especially when most of the users are going to be random volunteers selected without regard for their comfort at adapting to new technology.

I still think that a substantial component of this is going to turn out to be that a bunch of precincts fucked up the math, and fucked it up in 2016 and 2008 and 2004 and 2000 and 1992 and 1988, but they never had to show their work before, and now they do. Would you trust random volunteers from the common clay of your community to do your tax return for you? That's basically what they did here. There's a big book of rules, and counting, and multiplication, and division, and remainders. And it's all done on the spot under time pressure.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 02-04-2020 at 09:39 AM.
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Old 02-04-2020, 09:39 AM
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Good old Pete 'I definitely didn't work for the CIA' Buttigieg trying to steal the limelight with all the confusion going on and completely undermining a Sanders victory, I guess the good thing is Bidens results are looking disasterous, he isn't a viable candidate.
Well, yes, he's a politician. That's what they do. The whole "bean bag" thing, which politics isn't. But in fairness to him, if even the numbers from the Bernie camp quoted above are close to being true, he does have something to crow about. I watched his speech and I'm pretty sure I didn't hear him claim outright victory.
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:11 AM
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Well, yes, he's a politician. That's what they do. The whole "bean bag" thing, which politics isn't. But in fairness to him, if even the numbers from the Bernie camp quoted above are close to being true, he does have something to crow about. I watched his speech and I'm pretty sure I didn't hear him claim outright victory.
No, he didn't say "I am claiming victory", but he repeatedly said things like "Tonight, Iowa chose to turn the page on the old politics". Anyone watching that speech out of context would have assumed he won.

They all KIND OF did the same thing, but Pete was far more blatant about it than anyone else. Can't blame him, if it turns out he lost he'll look foolish but his campaign will pretty much be over anyway, so...
  #82  
Old 02-04-2020, 10:13 AM
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Pete absolutely needed to win Iowa, and get a bump from winning it, to have any reason to continue. So the worst thing that happens if it turns out he didn't win is that he loses, which is what would have happened if he waited.
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:13 AM
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There was never a need for an expensive custom app to send a few dozen numbers from point A to point B, especially when most of the users are going to be random volunteers selected without regard for their comfort at adapting to new technology.

I still think that a substantial component of this is going to turn out to be that a bunch of precincts fucked up the math, and fucked it up in 2016 and 2008 and 2004 and 2000 and 1992 and 1988, but they never had to show their work before, and now they do. Would you trust random volunteers from the common clay of your community to do your tax return for you? That's basically what they did here. There's a big book of rules, and counting, and multiplication, and division, and remainders. And it's all done on the spot under time pressure.
Yes, exactly, this. The app was part of the problem, but the amount of data that needed to be collected and reconciled was clearly part. Last night on MSNBC they talked to a precinct chair who was on hold for two hours waiting to give his results...and then when he did get through, it took him twenty minutes to report said results! Twenty minutes times 4000 or so precincts...this could take a while.
  #84  
Old 02-04-2020, 10:17 AM
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No, he didn't say "I am claiming victory", but he repeatedly said things like "Tonight, Iowa chose to turn the page on the old politics". Anyone watching that speech out of context would have assumed he won.

They all KIND OF did the same thing, but Pete was far more blatant about it than anyone else. Can't blame him, if it turns out he lost he'll look foolish but his campaign will pretty much be over anyway, so...
Actually I just saw this on CNN:

Quote:
"So we don't know all the results, but we know by the time, it's all said and done, Iowa you have shocked the nation. Because by all indications, we are going on to New Hampshire victorious," Buttigieg told the crowd in comments that drew criticism online.
I literally must have dozed off during that line, because I didn't hear him say "victorious". He left himself a slight "out" by saying "by all indications". But the rest of the speech is fine by me.

ETA: I'm not sure a second place loss, if it's fairly close, means he's out of it. I would bet on it that he won't think so.

Last edited by Fiddle Peghead; 02-04-2020 at 10:20 AM.
  #85  
Old 02-04-2020, 10:21 AM
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I think the simplest explanation is the most plausible- they got themselves an app that wasn't ready for prime time and used it. It doesn't sound terribly difficult to program but somehow somebody messed up.

I predict whatever the results, the Bernie Bros will whine about being cheated because that's what Bernie Bros do. Even if he wins big, you have to discount it slightly because of the lack of diversity in the state. Sanders and Buttigieg can win big with white liberals, but can they compete for the "Reagan Democrats" the way Biden can?
That was forty years ago and the Reagan Democrats are mostly dead. You do know Bernie is leading with Hispanics, right?

I don't think the IDP would completely humiliate themselves in public just to slightly blunt Bernie's Iowa bounce. I think it's a win-win situation for Bernie; if he wins, he'll certainly get some bounce, and if he loses, it's good to have it get less attention. If the first election people pay attention to is New Hampshire, that's not a bad thing for Bernie.

The guy getting screwed here is Buttigieg. This was his one chance to make enough of a splash to stay in the race, and now even a win won't help him as much as it should have.
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:25 AM
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Actually I just saw this on CNN:



I literally must have dozed off during that line, because I didn't hear him say "victorious". He left himself a slight "out" by saying "by all indications". But the rest of the speech is fine by me.

ETA: I'm not sure a second place loss, if it's fairly close, means he's out of it. I would bet on it that he won't think so.
I would think that a close second place with Biden imploding would be a very good result for Buttigieg, since it would leave the "moderate lane" wide open. But Nate Silver's model disagrees for some reason, dropping him into the low single digits in any scenario where he loses even narrowly.
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:29 AM
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At the end of the night Biden and Klobuchar each got a delegate to send to the State caucus.
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We ended up with the delegates going 2-2-2-1, for Sanders, Pete, Warren, and the 1 to Biden.
One small problem: not all "delegates" are equal.
For example, a county delegate in Des Moines County is worth 0.36 State Delegate Equivalents, while one in Davis County is worth only 0.03, and one in Dallas County is worth 0.4143.
Source; a county's SDEs = its total state delegates (first number) divided by its total county delegates (second number)

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Does the Democratic Party have a legal obligation to accept the results of the caucus?
"Legal" in what way? The national party requires that each state submit a Delegate Selection Plan, and Iowa's says that it will use its caucus to determine its delegates to the national convention. Presumably, the party has every right not to admit, or count, delegates from a state if they were not chosen in the way that the state said they would be.
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:36 AM
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I would think that a close second place with Biden imploding would be a very good result for Buttigieg, since it would leave the "moderate lane" wide open. But Nate Silver's model disagrees for some reason, dropping him into the low single digits in any scenario where he loses even narrowly.
Okay, fair enough, and now that you mention it do recall Five Thirty Eight saying something like the Iowa winner has a 60% chance of getting the nomination, or something like that. So in that respect, yeah. But again, Pete isn't going anywhere for a while.
  #89  
Old 02-04-2020, 10:40 AM
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First time caucus-goers are down 9% from 2016. Trump couldn't have asked for a better night for the SOTU address with the results farce and low turnout.
  #90  
Old 02-04-2020, 10:42 AM
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Pete still has a big problem with black voters no matter what he does in IA and NH.
  #91  
Old 02-04-2020, 10:53 AM
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You will recall that a few years ago Iowa managed to tell Romney he won only to change it a week or so later. Rick Santorum was the big winner. Both of these facts seem to indicate that Iowa cannot be trusted to be so important in the process.
And when all was said and done... Ron Paul won the Iowa Caucuses that year.

That year Iowa ended up sending 22 Paul delegates and 6 Romney delegates to the national convention. Link
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:54 AM
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Iowa person here.

I'm so, so sorry.

At my precinct, Pete did well with the most delegates, Klobucher didn't get any. We did have five people there for Steyer and all but one moved after not viable. Yang didn't make it and they moved around. Warren didn't make it first round but did second.

That's all I got; it's all I know. I'm disappointed in what happened as well.

Last edited by vislor; 02-04-2020 at 10:54 AM.
  #93  
Old 02-04-2020, 10:58 AM
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If the sole point of the app was to take a bunch of numbers from a few dozen point As and send them to a centralised point B then...well, shit. I’m not exaggerating when I say I could’ve built something that would’ve done the job just fine over a couple of weekends. I’m not an expert coder by any means, but if this shitty app’s job was as simple as it seems then you don’t need experts. Either there’s more to it, or these people are incompetent on a level that beggars belief more than any vote rigging conspiracy theory.
  #94  
Old 02-04-2020, 11:00 AM
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Pete still has a big problem with black voters no matter what he does in IA and NH.
Indeed. And I think that the common wisdom says that a part of that is because he is gay, but I haven't seen polls or anything else to support this, not that I've looked all that much. I do see this:

Quote:
He’s tracking roughly as well with black voters who lean Democrat as Mike Bloomberg (4 percent), Andrew Yang (3 percent), Tom Steyer (2 percent), and — before he dropped out of the race on Monday — even Cory Booker (4 percent).
The article goes on to suggest that it's more to do with his positions, and the large support black Americans have for Biden. So I would think that if Biden doesn't survive Iowa and the next upcoming primaries, Biden's supporters have to go somewhere and maybe if Pete is the last person standing, they would see their way to voting for him. That is just conjecture at this point though.

Last edited by Fiddle Peghead; 02-04-2020 at 11:02 AM.
  #95  
Old 02-04-2020, 11:01 AM
Sterling Archer is offline
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Agree the app should have been simple but geez emails or even a chat could have been used to calculate results too. But that may have problems with making it official, not sure.

They didn’t have the usual staff or phone lines ready to receive 1700 results calls within an hour or so, so that’s the main reason for the delay here.
  #96  
Old 02-04-2020, 11:02 AM
Unreconstructed Man is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
Pete still has a big problem with black voters no matter what he does in IA and NH.
Pete’s “problem” with black voters seems to be that they’re irrationally attached to Joe Biden. Like, they don’t seem to care much for anyone else. Warren’s struggling to get them on board. Klobuchar has almost no black support at all. Bernie is doing well with black voters under 35 but older black voters have no time for him at all.

X has a big problem with black voters is true for every candidate except Joe Biden, so it’s not really much of an argument against any specific challenger. And when Biden inevitably drops out that problem will solve itself.

Last edited by Unreconstructed Man; 02-04-2020 at 11:03 AM.
  #97  
Old 02-04-2020, 11:14 AM
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- Dems paid company literally called Shadow to create caucus app
- Buttigieg campaign also paid Shadow, FEC records show
- Caucus app fails
- Buttigieg declares himself Iowa winner with no results
  #98  
Old 02-04-2020, 11:23 AM
John_Stamos'_Left_Ear is offline
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For those interested I made a Pit Post just now that is relevant to this thread.

Fuck Caucuses
  #99  
Old 02-04-2020, 11:25 AM
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Originally Posted by MortSahlFan View Post
- Dems paid company literally called Shadow to create caucus app
- Buttigieg campaign also paid Shadow, FEC records show
- Caucus app fails
- Buttigieg declares himself Iowa winner with no results
BernieSandersFan?
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  #100  
Old 02-04-2020, 11:26 AM
That Don Guy's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unreconstructed Man View Post
If the sole point of the app was to take a bunch of numbers from a few dozen point As and send them to a centralised point B then...well, shit. I’m not exaggerating when I say I could’ve built something that would’ve done the job just fine over a couple of weekends. I’m not an expert coder by any means, but if this shitty app’s job was as simple as it seems then you don’t need experts. Either there’s more to it, or these people are incompetent on a level that beggars belief more than any vote rigging conspiracy theory.
"A few dozen"? Try 1600 different sites - and each one has to provide three numbers for each candidate that got any votes.

I'll give you an example based on a photo of a calculation sheet at CNN - Pottawattamie County precinct CB09, with 13 county delegates.
The final vote totals were, Klobuchar 31, Biden 24, Buttigieg 21, Sanders 18, Warren 17. Each one is divided by 112 (the number of voters in the first round - apparently, one left, as the final numbers add up to 111), then multiplied by 13 (the number of county delegates that precinct elects) and rounded to get each candidate's county delegate count; Klobuchar got 4, Biden got 3, and the other thre got 2 each.
The precinct captain has to send three sets of numbers:
(a) The "first round" votes - Biden 21, Buttigieg 19, Klobuchar 29, Sanders 17, Warren 17, Yang 8, Uncommitted 1 (this is where "112" comes from);
(b) The "final round" votes, listed above
(c) The State Delegate Equivalents - Pottawattamie County has 48 state delegates and a total of 400 county delegates, so multiply the county delegates by 48/400, which is 0.12, to get the State Delegate Equivalents: 0.48 for Klobuchar, 0.36 for Biden, and 0.24 each for Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren.
I would not be surprised if, in the app, they only had to enter the first two vote counts and the final number of delegates, and the app could calcualte the SDEs automatically based on the county, but without the app, either the precinct captain or the person taking down the numbers had to calculate them manually.

Remember, that's just one precinct; do this about 1600 more times.
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