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Old 02-06-2020, 03:33 PM
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New Hampshire Primary Discussion


5 days away. Iowa may have results by then.

Things to discuss:
1) What does Biden have to do to remain viable?
2) Can Klobuchar build upon Iowa and be considered a dark-horse contender?
3) Can the Midwest (Buttigeg, Klobuchar) hold their own against the New England elite (Biden, Warren, Sanders)?
4) Who officially drops out between now and then?
5) Do the Dems have a dichotomy between electability in the primaries and electability in the general?

Last edited by Saint Cad; 02-06-2020 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 02-06-2020, 03:45 PM
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1. Not get embarrassed again. He doesn't need to win, but he can't finish fourth again. And it would be a very bad sign for him if he finishes behind Buttigieg again.

2. Probably not. Seems like a lot of her relative success in Iowa was due to home-region advantage; the counties she did best in were all on the border with Minnesota. She won't have that in NH.

3. Bernie's "elite" now? Whoa. I'm sure that Biden/Warren/Sanders will total many more votes than Buttigieg/Klobuchar, but I wouldn't blame geography; that's what the national polls show, too. Also, Delaware isn't considered part of New England.

4. I would be surprised if anybody did.

Bernie should win this primary handily and consolidate his newfound status as the frontrunner. If he doesn't do that, it's a bad sign for him. Warren really needs to finish second or third at least, because if she can't do well in lily-white States, where exactly is she going to win? Same for Buttigieg, except he needs a strong showing even more, because his national support is still minuscle. I think anyone who isn't in the top 3 in NH should probably hang it up.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:16 PM
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I think Biden's firewall is south carolina. I think he will drop out after then even if he does well.

I doubt Klobuchars 5th place running means she has a future. I think she will drop out after NH or SC.

I think by the time super tuesday comes around the only ones left will be Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren & Bloomberg. Biden and Klobuchar will be out. I'm guessing Steyer will be out too and focus on funding politics rather than running. Warren knows she won't win, but she wants to rack up delegates and then transfer them to Sanders if Sanders offers her a good cabinet position.

I'm probably wrong, but thats what I think will happen.

Hard to say if the primary and general are different. I keep hearing Sanders is too far left, but people said Trump was too far right. People said that Romney, McCain, Kerry, Hillary, etc. were the safe picks and they all lost.
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Last edited by Wesley Clark; 02-06-2020 at 04:18 PM.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:34 PM
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Well, first of all, Bernie isn’t the front runner.

From what I’ve seen, Pete has dropped the cornfields and heartland stuff, so he’s showing that’s he’s flexible enough to campaign in different regions and he did go to Harvard.

I think Klobuchar is done and might drop out after NH. Spending all that time in Washington during the Trump trial just killed any momentum.

The debate is tomorrow (Friday) A horrible night for a debate at the end of a huge political week. No one will get a bounce and you just don’t want to make a gaffe that will go viral. The debate will draw fewer viewers than the Green Party convention does on C-Span 3.

Biden had better thank his lucky stars about the Iowa debacle. That was truly horrible for him. That campaign seems to be floundering. He’d better be glad he’s got SC coming up but then he runs into the Bloomberg money machine after.

Warren didn’t have a great Iowa either. She has to split the backyard vote with Bernie. Out of everyone she needs to be on the attack on Friday. But there’s a fine line between being an attack dog and ‘that angry bitch’ Does she go after Bernie and endure the wrath of his Bros? Does she go after Pete? She’s been slinging shit at Pete the last few months and it hasn’t worked.

The debate also has Yang and Steyer. Just go away!! All they’ll do is suck more oxygen and take time away from the big 4.

Bernie will be strong but lose tons of his 2016 support with the blowout win over Hillary.

I’d say that Bernie wins, Pete a close second, Warren a not so close 3rd, and Biden with another embarrassment. Basically similar to Iowa except for no tie at the top. If I was Bernie, I’d be worried about a major Biden gaffe Friday causing Biden’s support to plummet. And, avoid another hot mic with Warren. He doesn’t need the snakes again and the Bernie Bros are nasty trolls story to dominate the weekend before voting.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:34 PM
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Warren knows she won't win, but she wants to rack up delegates and then transfer them to Sanders if Sanders offers her a good cabinet position.
Okay, I'll ask; how does a candidate "transfer delegates"? A candidate is either in, or out, and if a candidate drops out, all of their pledged delegates either still have to vote for the candidate on the first ballot or become uncommitted.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:38 PM
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Well, first of all, Bernie isnt the front runner.
Nate Silver begs to differ.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:39 PM
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Okay, I'll ask; how does a candidate "transfer delegates"? A candidate is either in, or out, and if a candidate drops out, all of their pledged delegates either still have to vote for the candidate on the first ballot or become uncommitted.
Well, Warren's delegates are presumably loyal Warren supporters for the most part, so if she asks them to become uncommitted and then vote for Bernie, almost all of them would presumably do so. But you're right, she can't actually MAKE them.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:53 PM
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I really don’t think Warren wants a cabinet position. Why would she? She seems to enjoy being in the Senate. Plus, she knows quite well that Massachusetts special elections can be a mess. And I don’t see her staying in the race long enough to rack up delegates. It it’s clear she doesn’t have the ability to win, she’ll get out sooner rather than later. She could be looking at a serious primary challenge in 2024 and she’s handcuffed herself with the purity money stuff.
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Old 02-07-2020, 02:06 PM
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I really dont think Warren wants a cabinet position. Why would she?
Secretary of HUD or energy? Probably not. But who turns down AG, State, Treasury or Defense?
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Old 02-07-2020, 02:21 PM
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Secretary of HUD or energy? Probably not. But who turns down AG, State, Treasury or Defense?
Ive just always gotten the impression that Warren is a lot like John McCain or Bob Dole and genuinely likes being a Senator. Shes a big enough name that she can have a spot on any cable news or Sunday show that she wants to.

Its actually pretty rare for a Senator to take a cabinet job which is heavily administrative. Clinton as Secretary of State was an exception.

I have no objection at all to Warren being in the cabinet, I just am not sure shed be interested. Plus, Im sure she remembers the Scott Brown debacle.
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Old 02-07-2020, 03:42 PM
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Expectations matter.

Biden has to be at least third. Sanders needs the win. If Buttigieg upsets again he may still be a longshot, but Sanders would be hurt bad.

Klobuchar has no real chance of placing and is playing for a VP bid by getting to 4th. She's done after this.
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Old 02-07-2020, 05:53 PM
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I have no objection at all to Warren being in the cabinet, I just am not sure shed be interested. Plus, Im sure she remembers the Scott Brown debacle.
The Scott Brown debacle was a case of the Mass Democratic party coronating Martha Coakley, a choice no one really liked and a weak campaigner. I told them not to do this! They didn't listen, and even put her up for Governor in 2014, which she predictably blew and that's mainly why Massachusetts has a Republican governor now.

I hope - (hope!) - Martha has retired from electoral politics, because Mass Dems seem to be slow learners.
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Old 02-09-2020, 02:03 AM
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Ive just always gotten the impression that Warren is a lot like John McCain or Bob Dole and genuinely likes being a Senator. Shes a big enough name that she can have a spot on any cable news or Sunday show that she wants to.

Its actually pretty rare for a Senator to take a cabinet job which is heavily administrative. Clinton as Secretary of State was an exception.
I'd compare it to Jeff Sessions. He loved being a Senator but dropped it all to be AG and is in fact running for the Senate again.
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Old 02-09-2020, 01:57 PM
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As of right now, 538 has 10 New Hampshire polls in their poll database released in the last three days. Joe Biden does not hit 15% in any of them. There is a real chance he gets shut out in NH. That is the modal outcome in 538's New Hampshire forecast.

Zero delegates is pretty hard to spin as a good night and if it happens will hurt him in Nevada and may be enough to tip SC to someone else. He may be out by Super Tuesday.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:25 AM
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Primary is tomorrow.
Klobuchuar is third in polling! That means Biden and Warren are polling 4th and 5th - in New Hampshire no less. There might be a serious change in the Warren campaign if she can't get at least third.

With the whole "15% or nothing" of the Iowa caucus, in NH is the primary a straight proportional apportionment or is there a viability threshold there as well.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:34 AM
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As of right now, 538 has 10 New Hampshire polls in their poll database released in the last three days. Joe Biden does not hit 15% in any of them. There is a real chance he gets shut out in NH. That is the modal outcome in 538's New Hampshire forecast.

Zero delegates is pretty hard to spin as a good night and if it happens will hurt him in Nevada and may be enough to tip SC to someone else. He may be out by Super Tuesday.
Damn, 538 says Sanders is more likely to win SC than Biden at this point.

Those graphs imply Sanders got a huge bump from the Iowa Caucus but Buttigieg didn't nearly as much.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:51 AM
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Primary is tomorrow.
Klobuchuar is third in polling! That means Biden and Warren are polling 4th and 5th - in New Hampshire no less. There might be a serious change in the Warren campaign if she can't get at least third.

With the whole "15% or nothing" of the Iowa caucus, in NH is the primary a straight proportional apportionment or is there a viability threshold there as well.
AFAIK, all the states have the 15% requirement to qualify for delegates.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:56 AM
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AFAIK, all the states have the 15% requirement to qualify for delegates.
I am almost 100% sure this is true in all Democratic primaries and caucuses. That prevents some fringe candidate from demanding a seat at the table and throwing sand into the gears.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:02 AM
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AFAIK, all the states have the 15% requirement to qualify for delegates.
Correct. Also, every state has the "15% rule" at both the Congressional district and "statewide delegates" level. Note that if nobody gets 15%, then it becomes "half of what the winner in that district/statewide got."

Note that New Hampshire has 8 national delegates in each of its two districts, and 8 based on the statewide vote.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:07 AM
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Damn, 538 says Sanders is more likely to win SC than Biden at this point.

Those graphs imply Sanders got a huge bump from the Iowa Caucus but Buttigieg didn't nearly as much.
Well, those results are based on several assumptions:

1) Sanders and Buttigieg will be generally perceived as having split the win in Iowa, rather than either of them having done decisively better than the other.

2) The candidate(s) perceived as having won Iowa will improve their polling in line with historical averages.

3) Buttigieg's overachieving in a State where the demographics are very favorable to him doesn't greatly improve how he is predicted to do in other States.

In the next few days, we'll know how the polls actually did move, as well as the NH results, and the model will adjust accordingly.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:10 AM
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Biden will stay for Super Tuesday but hopefully he throws in the towel after that.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:19 AM
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Biden will stay for Super Tuesday but hopefully he throws in the towel after that.
I'm wondering if he drops out if he loses the SC primary. That was supposed to be his firewall.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:41 AM
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SC is 3 days before super tuesday so it would not make sense for Biden to drop out after SC unless he does very badly there.
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Old 02-10-2020, 01:36 PM
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SC is 3 days before super tuesday so it would not make sense for Biden to drop out after SC unless he does very badly there.
Yeah, and we're less than a month away. Even if any of the remaining candidate runs out of money, no one is "officially" dropping out until after Super Tuesday.
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Old 02-10-2020, 04:11 PM
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Yeah, and we're less than a month away. Even if any of the remaining candidate runs out of money, no one is "officially" dropping out until after Super Tuesday.
Not even Yang?
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Old 02-10-2020, 06:23 PM
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Not even Yang?
Yangs got his cult sending him money and he isnt really running to win. Hell drop lot when hes bored, I dont think hes making any more debates.
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Old 02-10-2020, 06:55 PM
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Depends on where he's going with this. If he wants to parlay the name recognition he gained from this run into a serious run for some other office in the future, he'll earn more goodwill by getting out early than sticking around as a distraction. If that's not in his plans, who knows?
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Old 02-10-2020, 06:57 PM
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SC is 3 days before super tuesday so it would not make sense for Biden to drop out after SC unless he does very badly there.
Didn't realize it was that soon. At that point, I don't know why you'd even bother dropping out no matter how badly you did; the costs of the Super Tuesday campaigning (literal and figurative) are already sunk. Might as well stick around, you might pick up a few more delegates, which could give you a bit more leverage in the event of a contested convention.
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Old 02-10-2020, 08:27 PM
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Well, he might drop out after a terrible SC to give the other more centrist candidates a running shot at Super Tuesday. I think his ego could handle it and here I go: endorsing Bloomberg is what he should do at that time.
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Old 02-10-2020, 09:56 PM
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Well, he might drop out after a terrible SC to give the other more centrist candidates a running shot at Super Tuesday. I think his ego could handle it and here I go: endorsing Bloomberg is what he should do at that time.
Maybe, but a lot of Super Tuesday voting will already been done by then. A lot of states have some form of early voting.

Colorado in particular is 100% mail in ballots. They went out to the voters today, and many will have already been returned before the results of South Carolina's bissextile primary are known.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:09 PM
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Early voting is something I've thought about. Remember, he's been slamming those states a while now with ads. If this "any moderate but Biden" vibe I'm getting from Iowa and NH polling is more widespread, may Bloomberg got a few of those early ballots.

Last edited by CarnalK; 02-10-2020 at 10:11 PM.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:31 AM
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First returns are in from New Hampshire: With 100% of the vote reporting from Dixville Notch, Mike Bloomberg takes an early lead, receiving 60% of the votes.

Three write-in votes went to Bloomberg, one vote went to Buttigieg and one went to Sanders.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:57 AM
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First returns are in from New Hampshire: With 100% of the vote reporting from Dixville Notch, Mike Bloomberg takes an early lead, receiving 60% of the votes.

Three write-in votes went to Bloomberg, one vote went to Buttigieg and one went to Sanders.
Upon closer examination, Bloomberg only received 50% of the Democratic vote, but received 100% of the Republican vote.

D
Bloomberg 2
Buttigieg 1
Sanders 1

R
Bloomberg 1

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Old 02-11-2020, 08:24 AM
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Pete is on MSNBC and looks like he forgot to shave or maybe shaved last night.
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:51 AM
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Pete is on MSNBC and looks like he forgot to shave or maybe shaved last night.
Perhaps deliberately trying to convey he’s the “hardest working man in show business,” like that 1950s (?) photo of some politician’s hole in his shoe (his opponent mocked him, but he turned it around into an asset).

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Old 02-11-2020, 10:19 AM
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That was Adlai Stevenson. He made it one of his campaign icons. I used to have a silver pin in the form of a miniature shoe displaying a hole in its sole. Sadly it got stolen by a mover when my parents moved and their small lockbox disappeared. Of course, Stevenson didn't have a chance against Eisenhower.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:28 AM
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Call me crazy, but I think Klobuchar has a chance to finish 2nd tonight or even outright win. Momentum is with her. I think the moderate lane is abandoning Biden and the leftist lane seems to be abandoning Warren. Mayor Pete has peaked and I think is going to fade as quickly as he rose.

My ticket for November: Klobuchar-Booker
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:45 AM
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Call me crazy, but I think Klobuchar has a chance to finish 2nd tonight or even outright win. Momentum is with her. I think the moderate lane is abandoning Biden and the leftist lane seems to be abandoning Warren. Mayor Pete has peaked and I think is going to fade as quickly as he rose.

My ticket for November: Klobuchar-Booker
My suggestion is turn off MSNBC. Way too little too late for Klobucharmania.

1. Bernie
2. Pete
3. Warren
4. Hmmm, this is where it gets interesting. Ok, I’ll go out on a limb and say Klobuchar
5. Biden, that is one floundering campaign
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:44 AM
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Warren really needs to finish second or third at least, because if she can't do well in lily-white States, where exactly is she going to win? Same for Buttigieg, except he needs a strong showing even more, because his national support is still minuscle.
I think Warren has the potential to do better after NH because, as Astead Herndon wrote in the NYT, "Elizabeth Warren Has a Pete Buttigieg Problem." Among white voters (which is all you've got in IA/NH), they're competing for the same group of college-educated progressive voters. And IA and NH have been the only two states where Buttigieg's been polling in the mid-20s for some time, rather than the 7-8% he's at nationally.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:48 PM
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PredictIt has it as a two way race as of this posting, and not a very close one.

Bernie @ 82
Pete @ 18

The only other candidate above 1 is Klobuchar at 4. If anyone actually believes that she has a chance to win you can't beat that price. It would be pretty easy to make some money on that if she just showed well in early returns.
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Old 02-11-2020, 02:17 PM
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538 New Hampshire forecast (final)
Sanders - 10.7
Buttigieg - 8.8
Warren - 2.1
Biden - 1.5
Other - 0.9

These are mean values. The modal outcome for everyone but Sanders and Buttigieg is zero delegates.
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Old 02-11-2020, 02:42 PM
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I think Warren has the potential to do better after NH because, as Astead Herndon wrote in the NYT, "Elizabeth Warren Has a Pete Buttigieg Problem." Among white voters (which is all you've got in IA/NH), they're competing for the same group of college-educated progressive voters. And IA and NH have been the only two states where Buttigieg's been polling in the mid-20s for some time, rather than the 7-8% he's at nationally.
No question that Warren's campaign is generally stronger; she has a higher floor of established support and a stronger organization. I'm not sure I buy that she and Pete are really competing for the exact same voters; I think Pete's voters are much less likely to identify as "progressive". But middle class and white, for sure.

On that theory, then, the best thing for Warren would be if Pete drops out before rather than after Super Tuesday. Which is unlikely to happen unless she somehow beats him out for second today. QED, the NH race is super important for Warren.
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Old 02-11-2020, 02:57 PM
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No question that Warren's campaign is generally stronger; she has a higher floor of established support and a stronger organization. I'm not sure I buy that she and Pete are really competing for the exact same voters; I think Pete's voters are much less likely to identify as "progressive". But middle class and white, for sure.

On that theory, then, the best thing for Warren would be if Pete drops out before rather than after Super Tuesday. Which is unlikely to happen unless she somehow beats him out for second today. QED, the NH race is super important for Warren.
Nah, in IA and NH, he's been polling way above his national polls because he's thrown everything he had into those two states.

You can't do that on Super Tuesday, because you can't be everywhere at once. Sure, he'll get some sort of bounce across the board, but probably got most of it already from a maybe-first-place in Iowa. (RCP has him at 10.4% nationally, 538 has him at 9.5%, way below his support in either of the first two states. So we're going from an environment where Buttigieg's consistently been polling ahead of Warren, to one where he's been polling consistently behind her. I would say that change is to her advantage.
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Old 02-11-2020, 03:25 PM
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No question, but it's not a night and day difference; 538 only has Warren at 13.2 nationally. I'm looking at the 538 averages for NV, SC and the Super Tuesday States, and it's about the same picture; Warren leads Pete in most of them, but only by a few points, and neither of them are doing at all well anywhere (except that Warren is leading in MA).

Like right now, if Buttigieg dropped out, Warren would have to pick up literally ALL his supporters in order to move into a tie with Sanders in the 538 average.
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Old 02-11-2020, 04:23 PM
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Like right now, if Buttigieg dropped out, Warren would have to pick up literally ALL his supporters in order to move into a tie with Sanders in the 538 average.
If Buttigieg dropped out his supporters are more likely to go for Biden than Warren.
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Old 02-11-2020, 04:42 PM
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It looks like Biden has given up on New Hampshire. He's already moved on to South Carolina. Oddly, since the next vote is Nevada, but I guess he really is making a last ditch stand in South Carolina.
  #47  
Old 02-11-2020, 04:49 PM
Thing Fish is offline
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That's weird. Everyone has always expected him to win South Carolina. In Nevada, he's been neck and neck with Bernie the whole campaign; Bernie has moved twenty points up since Iowa, though. But if he gets shellacked in the first three States, will winning SC really be the kind of game-changing narrative he needs at that point? Seems like NV is his only realistic chance to pull off an impressive win before Super Tuesday. If I were him, I'd be focused there; if he actually has to try hard in order to win SC, he's not going anywhere.

Last edited by Thing Fish; 02-11-2020 at 04:51 PM.
  #48  
Old 02-11-2020, 04:57 PM
Corry El is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Nah, in IA and NH, he's been polling way above his national polls because he's thrown everything he had into those two states.

You can't do that on Super Tuesday, because you can't be everywhere at once. Sure, he'll get some sort of bounce across the board, but probably got most of it already from a maybe-first-place in Iowa. (RCP has him at 10.4% nationally, 538 has him at 9.5%, way below his support in either of the first two states. So we're going from an environment where Buttigieg's consistently been polling ahead of Warren, to one where he's been polling consistently behind her. I would say that change is to her advantage.
But there's probably a reason Buttigieg's odds in the RCP betting site avg are 15.7% v Warren's at 6.3%.

Besides positive bounce there's negative bounce. Biden is viewed by betting markets as now less likely than Buttigieg. Very possibly the big numbers Biden has in various other states will collapse, and have to go to somebody. Likewise Warren might be widely declared dead if she finishes 4th today, which doesn't mean she'll admit it right away even if so, but her polling more than Buttigieg nationally probably isn't very meaningful right now IMO (it would once again be perhaps if she overpeforms in NH). It's probably more immediately relevant to talk about where Warren's support goes if she quits than where Buttigieg's goes if he quits.
  #49  
Old 02-11-2020, 05:45 PM
Indyellen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whack-a-Mole View Post
If Buttigieg dropped out his supporters are more likely to go for Biden than Warren.
I don't know. I could see Buttigieg supporters going for Klobuchar over Biden. I'm not sure Uncle Joe has the energy to carry the Buttigieg supporters.
  #50  
Old 02-11-2020, 06:09 PM
str8cashhomie is offline
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For people speculating on where voters could move, I'd suggest looking at Morning Consult's interactive page.

Among other things, it polls second preferences, and for Buttigieg supporters, the breakdown is 20% for Bloomberg, 19% for Biden and Sanders and Warren tied at 17% (presumably Klobuchar didn't get a high enough percentage to be included and the site doesn't appear to list other/don't know percentages unfortunately).
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