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  #151  
Old 02-08-2020, 09:30 PM
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...my comment on activism was entirely in response to what it was you said to me.
Thanks for the info.
...
  #152  
Old 02-08-2020, 10:30 PM
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What a stupid thing to say. So kids entering college today are just meant to bend over and get shackled with ever greater levels of student debt because a bunch of fucking boomers with better jobs and lower mortgages were able to clear theirs? Because to offer them debt relief wouldnít be fair to the boomers? Fuck that!
Well, yes, fuck that. Of course. But we have become a mean and small-minded nation.

I remember hearing a radio interview with someone promoting a book about the labor movement and unions and so forth (Steven Greenhouse, maybe?).

He said that once upon a time, people looked at the guy with a good union job with good benefits, and retirement, and security, and all that good stuff, and said "hey, that looks good. I've gotta get me a union job too!"

Now they look at that same guy, and see that he has all that good stuff, and say "let's take that away from him."

That's why we're doomed.
  #153  
Old 02-08-2020, 11:34 PM
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I have never heard anyone say anything remotely resembling that sentiment, and I have talked to people ALL over the political spectrum including individuals so conservative and so enamored with Trump that it would make your head explode. I have never, ever heard anyone verbalize that idea.
  #154  
Old 02-09-2020, 07:56 AM
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What you're saying is, Bernie voters are so hypersensitive that they'll intentionally let the country go to shit by purposely helping Donald Trump get reelected, all because their little Instagram-addicted egos were bruised?

Here's the thing about voting: it's a civic activity, meaning that it's not just for the benefit of the individual who's voting; it's supposed to be an act of civic duty, to preserve good governance, the common welfare, a more perfect nation and all that. Bernie Sanders' supporters -- all progressive supporters who really should know better -- have a responsibility to stop sniveling over the defeat of their preferred candidate, to get over it, and to vote against Donald Trump.
Thats a hell of a sales pitch.
  #155  
Old 02-09-2020, 09:26 PM
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What you're saying is, Bernie voters are so hypersensitive that they'll intentionally let the country go to shit by purposely helping Donald Trump get reelected, all because their little Instagram-addicted egos were bruised?

Here's the thing about voting: it's a civic activity, meaning that it's not just for the benefit of the individual who's voting; it's supposed to be an act of civic duty, to preserve good governance, the common welfare, a more perfect nation and all that. Bernie Sanders' supporters -- all progressive supporters who really should know better -- have a responsibility to stop sniveling over the defeat of their preferred candidate, to get over it, and to vote against Donald Trump.
I completely agree. But would you mind terribly if we wait until/unless our preferred candidate, who is currently the frontrunner by a large margin, actually is defeated? TIA.

Also, if you'll notice, Dale's post which you replied to also pointed out that there are Democrats who would vote for any candidate OTHER than Bernie? Why don't you hold some vitriol back for them?
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  #156  
Old 02-09-2020, 09:30 PM
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I believe he is in second place at the moment. Behind Buttigieg.
  #157  
Old 02-09-2020, 09:32 PM
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Hmmm...CarnalK or Nate Silver? Whose opinion should I trust? It's a real conundrum...
  #158  
Old 02-09-2020, 09:34 PM
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Come on, man. I was talking about the delegate count so far. I'm aware 538 has him as the favorite. It was a joke.
  #159  
Old 02-09-2020, 10:05 PM
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Also, if you'll notice, Dale's post which you replied to also pointed out that there are Democrats who would vote for any candidate OTHER than Bernie? Why don't you hold some vitriol back for them?
If Bernie wins and progressives don't vote for him, I would be pissed. Despite my many concerns about how he'd perform as president, having Donald Trump out of office is the number one priority.
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Old 02-09-2020, 10:07 PM
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Come on, man. I was talking about the delegate count so far. I'm aware 538 has him as the favorite. It was a joke.
Sorry.
  #161  
Old 02-09-2020, 10:23 PM
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No problem. These are troubled times and also I assume we're both drunk.
  #162  
Old 02-09-2020, 10:28 PM
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I represent that remark.
  #163  
Old 02-10-2020, 02:07 PM
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There are a lot of them but not as many as you seem to think:
42% is still by far the largest single demographic unit in the nation, even if it's not as big as it once was.
  #164  
Old 02-11-2020, 09:35 AM
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I have never heard anyone say anything remotely resembling that sentiment, and I have talked to people ALL over the political spectrum including individuals so conservative and so enamored with Trump that it would make your head explode. I have never, ever heard anyone verbalize that idea.
I've very often heard that sentiment in so many words when it comes to rich people. Let's take more of what they have and divide it up. The people who say that think they have good reasons, and they probably rationalize that it's much different than openly proposing to take stuff away from union members or whatever. But I don't think anyone can deny it's a commonly verbalized sentiment on the left, ever since there's been a concept of a 'left'. And the targets often in practice extend to people who might reasonably dispute that they are 'rich'.

For either case, though rich people or union members (just as example) there are varying opinions whether their relative good fortune comes at the expense of others. Again with rich people that's a common belief on the left, no need to re-litigate it here. But also within economics there are differing opinions whether unionization, labor price fixing, basically operates like any other price fixing: in favor of the people fixing the price to the detriment of everyone else. Or, if there are secondary positive effects of unionization (economic, even social as in something to belong to rather than more isolated lives people tend to live now) that offset the price fixing inefficiency enough to make it a net positive for people other than the union members (not much doubt it makes union members better off at least in the short term...same as it would make supermarket owners better off at least in the short term if they were allowed to get together and fix grocery prices).
  #165  
Old 02-11-2020, 09:45 AM
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I've heard people say about autoworker union jobs "Nobody should get paid $30/hour for putting bolts on a car"
  #166  
Old 02-11-2020, 10:11 AM
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Might better split that as "white and/or Christian." There are a significant number of racial-minority Christians who also ascribe to the notion that Christians in America face persecution and are dismayed by what they see in Hollywood/the media/etc.
I'm not sure where you're going with this, but there does seem to be a sharp political line between white Christians and non-white Christians.
  #167  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:07 AM
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This gets an "OK, Boomer" award.
OK Boomer is about the most self defeating thing you can say in politics. Boomers vote at much higher rates than any other group. They swing elections. So you can either listen to their concerns or you can lose elections.

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Leaving left and right out of it, student debt and things like the shortage of affordable housing and lack of good jobs are things affecting a large part of the population. These aren't just kids, these are people now in their thirties and even forties. These are not problems that only developed in the last few years. The Democrats haven't exactly been there for them.
I happen to agree that free state college tuition can be a great thing electorally. After all most people have kids and grandkids that may face college expenses on their future. But the devil is in the details and forgiving existing college debt for investment bankers doesn't seem necessary.

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I think winning them back is important, not just to win elections but to bring back the ideals I was brought up being told the Democrats stood for. Unfortunately I don't know how long it would take to re-engage people. Ignoring them might in fact be a good short term strategy for winning. But I don't think it's a good long term one.
That all depends on what you were told Democrats stood for.
  #168  
Old 02-11-2020, 02:42 PM
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I hear two approaches:

1) Some folks saying, "We gotta start from a higher baseline, because then the psychopath won't be able to reach it."
2) Other folks saying, "No, we gotta make the base strong and build it lower to the ground, because even though that's exactly the plan that the psycho smashed up last time, it's sure to work this time."

I'm not totally convinced the second group has the right of it.
I don't see either of those working.

I'd vote that having psychotics act as a component of your internal structure is bad hiring practices.
  #169  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:11 AM
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OK Boomer is about the most self defeating thing you can say in politics. Boomers vote at much higher rates than any other group. They swing elections. So you can either listen to their concerns or you can lose elections.
Apparently what they are concerned about is making it difficult for those who came behind them to get much of what they got to take for granted. He is like the poster child for OK Boomer. You bet I am going to call him on it.

Boomers also die at a higher rate. Who is going to replace them?


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I happen to agree that free state college tuition can be a great thing electorally. After all most people have kids and grandkids that may face college expenses on their future. But the devil is in the details and forgiving existing college debt for investment bankers doesn't seem necessary.
I don't see anyone demanding 100% debt relief for everyone. There can be a discussion for what is the most fair way to go about it. For starters they could change bankruptcy laws so student loans could be discharged. This would also come with the punishment of damaging their credit scores if punishing them makes you feel better.

But Carville doesn't even want to have the discussion.


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That all depends on what you were told Democrats stood for.
Well for a few things, the vulnerable, the working person and equal opportunity. Am I wrong?

https://www.npr.org/2016/05/16/47823...-actually-vote

Here is an article from May, 2016. Millennials are catching up in numbers to Boomers. If Democrats don't start winning over young voters the Republicans might.

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In fact, even though millennials lean Democratic, Donald Trump has actually won more raw votes from 18-29 year olds during the primaries so far than Clinton, according to exit poll estimates from CIRCLE.
  #170  
Old 02-14-2020, 12:26 PM
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Sanders calls Carville a political hack. Carville retorts: "At least I'm not a communist."

Last edited by Eonwe; 02-14-2020 at 12:27 PM.
  #171  
Old 02-14-2020, 12:28 PM
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What a hack, Trumpian response. I like Carville, but man is he being dumb here.

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  #172  
Old 02-14-2020, 12:42 PM
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What a hack, Trumpian response. I like Carville, but man is he being dumb here.
But he’s still right. We can argue about the differences between communist, socialist and democratic socialist all day. All the republican PACs need to do to convince enough Americans that Bernie is the second coming of Lenin is to use his old clips.

Last edited by Loach; 02-14-2020 at 12:42 PM.
  #173  
Old 02-14-2020, 12:58 PM
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But heís still right. We can argue about the differences between communist, socialist and democratic socialist all day. All the republican PACs need to do to convince enough Americans that Bernie is the second coming of Lenin is to use his old clips.
Hold on. Carville calls Sanders a communist, and you say he's right?

Sounds to me like the Republican PACs don't need to do that much work to convince Americans that Sanders is a communist, if Democrats are equally eager to tell that story, and equally credulous when they hear it.
  #174  
Old 02-14-2020, 01:04 PM
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Hold on. Carville calls Sanders a communist, and you say he's right?

Sounds to me like the Republican PACs don't need to do that much work to convince Americans that Sanders is a communist, if Democrats are equally eager to tell that story, and equally credulous when they hear it.
Yep, Sanders is doomed.
  #175  
Old 02-14-2020, 01:05 PM
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But heís still right. We can argue about the differences between communist, socialist and democratic socialist all day. All the republican PACs need to do to convince enough Americans that Bernie is the second coming of Lenin is to use his old clips.
That's nuts. Bernie's advocating for policies like Canada, Denmark, Finland, etc.
  #176  
Old 02-14-2020, 01:20 PM
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What a hack, Trumpian response. I like Carville, but man is he being dumb here.
Nah, he's right.

I'm sorry, Bernie may end up taking over the Democratic party, but he hasn't won hearts and minds. Sanders and his supporters believe that they will just eventually persuade people with the courage of their convictions, but they're just totally blind.
  #177  
Old 02-14-2020, 01:21 PM
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That's nuts. Bernie's advocating for policies like Canada, Denmark, Finland, etc.
There are videos of Bernie praising Castro and other communist regimes. Sure most are old and heís gotten a lot better about not expressing those kind of comments in recent years but do you really think that matters? Even if it was 30 years ago how do you think those videos will play in a place like Florida? And you are talking about policies? Iím talking about his own words coming back to bury him in 30 second increments on tv.
  #178  
Old 02-14-2020, 01:21 PM
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That's nuts. Bernie's advocating for policies like Canada, Denmark, Finland, etc.
Most Americans don't want to be like Canada, Denmark, or Finland - we're not even remotely the same kind of society. There are ways to improve the system without setting the apartment complex on fire.
  #179  
Old 02-14-2020, 01:23 PM
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There are videos of Bernie praising Castro and other communist regimes. Sure most are old and heís gotten a lot better about not expressing those kind of comments in recent years but do you really think that matters? Even if it was 30 years ago how do you think those videos will play in a place like Florida? And you are talking about policies? Iím talking about his own words coming back to bury him in 30 second increments on tv.
And he still calls himself a 'socialist'!!!! It doesn't get any worse. Sanders will be the living meme of the Democratic party that the Republicans have tried to use to label every single successful Democratic politician since time immemorial - okay, since the 1930s but you get the idea.
  #180  
Old 02-14-2020, 01:31 PM
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Most Americans don't want to be like Canada, Denmark, or Finland - we're not even remotely the same kind of society. There are ways to improve the system without setting the apartment complex on fire.
And even those who do (like me), don't think Bernie will move us very far in that direction (or at all) in the remote chance he would get elected.

I think we'll make more progress with Pete or Amy in charge over the next four years than we would with Bernie.
  #181  
Old 02-14-2020, 01:49 PM
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That's nuts. Bernie's advocating for policies like Canada, Denmark, Finland, etc.
One might note that your average American is not in line to emigrate to Denmark.
  #182  
Old 02-14-2020, 02:06 PM
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There are videos of Bernie praising Castro and other communist regimes. Sure most are old and he’s gotten a lot better about not expressing those kind of comments in recent years but do you really think that matters? Even if it was 30 years ago how do you think those videos will play in a place like Florida? And you are talking about policies? I’m talking about his own words coming back to bury him in 30 second increments on tv.
So are you saying Bernie's a communist (which is what Carville and Trump have said), or are you saying they will try to smear Bernie as a communist? The latter is obviously true (and will be true of any Democrat), and the former is obviously false. I don't think decades-old videos will be terribly influential, but we'll see. Even with those videos, I think Bernie has the best chance to win.

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Nah, he's right.
He said Bernie's a communist. So did Trump.

That's ridiculous. Carville is wrong.

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  #183  
Old 02-14-2020, 02:13 PM
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The conventional wisdom said Trump was a weak candidate, and the "centrist" Hillary Clinton would beat him. So did my instincts. All that stuff is crap. We just don't know -- all these predictions are no better than wild guesses at this point. Nate Silver says we know almost nothing about electability, and I'm going with his analysis over random internet folks and even talking heads like Carville.

So I'm going with the candidate who best matches me on policy, and who I think is getting the most people excited. So far, I've been called and visited in person about 10 times -- 9 times (and all the in-person visits at my house) by Bernie volunteers, and 1 Bloomberg phonecall (who probably wasn't a volunteer). And from the polling I've seen, Bernie is doing as well against Trump as anyone lately, not that this tells us much this early. And I like his policies best. So I'm supporting Bernie, and I urge others to as well.
  #184  
Old 02-14-2020, 02:15 PM
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Obama didn't win because he was a centrist, he won because he has once-in-a-generation charisma and communication skills. People were excited to vote for Obama. I don't think the Democrats are likely to win unless we've got someone people are excited to vote for.
  #185  
Old 02-14-2020, 02:16 PM
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The latter is obviously true (and will be true of any Democrat),
So you're confident that an actual video of Sanders praising Castro and getting in a drunk sing along in Russia will have no effect on the Florida vote?
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:20 PM
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So are you saying Bernie's a communist (which is what Carville and Trump have said), or are you saying they will try to smear Bernie as a communist? The latter is obviously true (and will be true of any Democrat), and the former is obviously false. I don't think decades-old videos will be terribly influential, but we'll see. Even with those videos, I think Bernie has the best chance to win.



He said Bernie's a communist. So did Trump.

That's ridiculous. Carville is wrong.
He may have mellowed with age but he has expressed a lot more solidarity with communist governments and communist systems than any democrat candidate ever. He might as well be a communist. As it is he is an avowed socialist which might as well be the same thing. Carville can be a blowhard. He certainly knows the difference between communist and socialist. He also knows it doesnít matter in American politics.

Itís hard to characterize someoneís own words as a smear. Is the tape of Bloomberg a smear?
  #187  
Old 02-14-2020, 02:23 PM
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Bernie is Russian too.

It's a new world. New alliances. Republican voters are warmer now about russians, and i think that also affects attitudes towards "communism" as a thing. And Bernie is preaching democratic socialism not communism at all, not even by exaggeration. Meaning he wants to spend the money we already have on non corruption: what a concept.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:26 PM
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So far, I've been called and visited in person about 10 times -- 9 times (and all the in-person visits at my house) by Bernie volunteers, and 1 Bloomberg phonecall (who probably wasn't a volunteer).
I suppose I should be thankful I live in a non-swing state with a late primary. My vote is meaningless but no one bothers me.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:26 PM
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So you're confident that an actual video of Sanders praising Castro and getting in a drunk sing along in Russia will have no effect on the Florida vote?
I don't think the drunk singing video would have any effect (seriously -- it's just Sanders hanging out with some Russians from Burlington's sister city in Russia in the 80s). For folks for whom Castro looms large as some great historical villain, I'm sure this would negatively incline them towards Sanders, but I think such folks are probably vanishingly likely to vote for Sanders anyway. Any effect it would have, IMO, would be overcome by the greater enthusiasm and support he would have than the alternatives.

At least this is how I feel right now. Which is basically a wild guess, but it's my wild guess. I doubt I'm going to find anyone else's wild guess somehow convincing.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:30 PM
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That's nuts. Bernie's advocating for policies like Canada, Denmark, Finland, etc.
America could stand to be more like Canada, yes. That's do-able.

America will never be like Finland in any way, shape or form - that country and culture is as sequestered as you can get; such societies can only be created organically after thousands of years of people collectively bunkering down to survive brutal winters. Some of the indigenous peoples of America might have been kind of like Finland today, if we hadn't, you know, totally destroyed their cultures.

Small-scale "communitarianism" requires small-scale communities to work. But certain economic policies - called perhaps unfairly "the welfare state", can indeed be implemented in America, I think.

Bernie's ideas about healthcare are NOT RADICAL. It's our current healthcare situation that is radical - radically fucked up.
  #191  
Old 02-14-2020, 02:32 PM
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He may have mellowed with age but he has expressed a lot more solidarity with communist governments and communist systems than any democrat candidate ever. He might as well be a communist. As it is he is an avowed socialist which might as well be the same thing. Carville can be a blowhard. He certainly knows the difference between communist and socialist. He also knows it doesnít matter in American politics.
I'm unconvinced. This just sounds like CNN/Morning Joe/Chuck Todd-style conventional wisdom -- the kind of conventional wisdom that failed spectacularly in 2016 (not just in the GE, but in the Republican primary as well).

Bernie's not a bright new thing -- he's a well known commodity. He's been a national player, as much as a Senator can be, for 4 years. Everyone knows who he is. Everyone who's interested in politics has probably seen, or at least heard about these videos. I don't think they're going to have a huge effect.

But this is all guessing. I'm going with the candidate that feels right to me, because there's vanishingly little actual data that tells us which one is most likely to win (as Nate Silver points out again and again).

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Itís hard to characterize someoneís own words as a smear. Is the tape of Bloomberg a smear?
Not sure what this is referring to.
  #192  
Old 02-14-2020, 02:37 PM
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I don't think the drunk singing video would have any effect (seriously -- it's just Sanders hanging out with some Russians from Burlington's sister city in Russia in the 80s). For folks for whom Castro looms large as some great historical villain, I'm sure this would negatively incline them towards Sanders, but I think such folks are probably vanishingly likely to vote for Sanders anyway. Any effect it would have, IMO, would be overcome by the greater enthusiasm and support he would have than the alternatives.

At least this is how I feel right now. Which is basically a wild guess, but it's my wild guess. I doubt I'm going to find anyone else's wild guess somehow convincing.
Convincing you isnít relevant. The fact that left wing folks like Carville are calling Comrade Sanders a communist is huge and signals a real fear that will be convincing to others.
  #193  
Old 02-14-2020, 02:42 PM
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Convincing you isnít relevant. The fact that left wing folks like Carville are calling Comrade Sanders a communist is huge and signals a real fear that will be convincing to others.
Interesting wild guess! I guess we'll see which wild guess happens to align with the future.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
Interesting wild guess! I guess we'll see which wild guess happens to align with the future.
That goofy rhetorical tactic is not accurate in this case. We have people in this thread agreeing with Carville, therefore my statement is not a wild guess. Itís a fact.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by octopus View Post
That goofy rhetorical tactic is not accurate in this case. We have people in this thread agreeing with Carville, therefore my statement is not a wild guess. Itís a fact.
And there are people in other threads that agree with me! What fun! I wonder which wild guess will happen to be true/more influential with the most people for 2020? Tune in for the next several months and we'll find out!
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
I'm unconvinced. This just sounds like CNN/Morning Joe/Chuck Todd-style conventional wisdom -- the kind of conventional wisdom that failed spectacularly in 2016 (not just in the GE, but in the Republican primary as well).

Bernie's not a bright new thing -- he's a well known commodity. He's been a national player, as much as a Senator can be, for 4 years. Everyone knows who he is. Everyone who's interested in politics has probably seen, or at least heard about these videos. I don't think they're going to have a huge effect.

But this is all guessing. I'm going with the candidate that feels right to me, because there's vanishingly little actual data that tells us which one is most likely to win (as Nate Silver points out again and again).



Not sure what this is referring to.
You might have found the results spectacular but I donít find the results falling within the margin of error of most polls as failing spectacularly. Thatís just not understanding math.


The Bloomberg tape came out with him talking about stop and frisk and is being used by the democratic establishment to say heís racist. Is that a smear? Itís his own words on tape.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
And there are people in other threads that agree with me! What fun! I wonder which wild guess will happen to be true/more influential with the most people for 2020? Tune in for the next several months and we'll find out!
Good thing I never said most influential isnít it? I said Carvilleís statement will influence others and this thread is proof that it has. If you are going to use what is at this point almost a catchphrase use it appropriately.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:52 PM
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You might have found the results spectacular but I donít find the results falling within the margin of error of most polls as failing spectacularly. Thatís just not understanding math.
I agree -- the conventional wisdom from 2016 should have followed Nate Silver's math, which was reasonably close to the final results (the polls only being more than a little bit off in a few states). But the conventional wisdom went another way, and was shown to be spectacularly dumb.

Right now, Nate Silver is saying that there is no data to suggest that the conventional wisdom about Bernie as somehow less electable is correct -- that we know virtually nothing about who is more electable at this point. I'm going with Nate Silver and his track record over this conventional wisdom.

Quote:
The Bloomberg tape came out with him talking about stop and frisk and is being used by the democratic establishment to say heís racist. Is that a smear? Itís his own words on tape.
I never said it was a smear. I'm not sure what you're asking me about related to anything I've said.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:55 PM
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Good thing I never said most influential isnít it? I said Carvilleís statement will influence others and this thread is proof that it has. If you are going to use what is at this point almost a catchphrase use it appropriately.
I'm not sure what you're actually disputing, but thank you. We'll find out whether I am correct or not with regards to the 2020 election over the next several months.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:58 PM
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Not sure what this is referring to.
He's referring to words you typed and posted. You used the word "smear" to describe spreading around Sanders' Castro praise. Do a text search if you've forgotten already.
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