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Old 02-09-2020, 03:11 PM
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Climate Change Wars: Water - Egypt and Ethiopia


Egypt is concerned over a dam being built on the Nile by Ethiopia which may reduce their water supply. Negotiations are ongoing.
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A colossal hydroelectric dam being built on the Nile 2,000 miles upriver, in the lowlands of Ethiopia, threatens to further constrict Egypt’s water supply — and is scheduled to start filling this summer. ...

... For eight years, officials from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan — which lies between the two countries — squabbled fruitlessly over the dam. Ninety-five percent of Egyptians live along the Nile or in its teeming delta, and the river provides nearly all of their water. They worry that, if the dam in Ethiopia is filled too quickly, it could drastically curtail their water supply. ...

... While the two nations spar over the dam, hydrologists say the most pressing threat facing the Nile stems from population growth and climate change. Egypt’s population increases by one million people every six months — a soaring rate that the United Nations predicts will lead to water shortages by 2025.

Rising sea levels threaten to nibble at Egypt’s low-lying coast and help push saltwater inland, spoiling fertile land. Increasingly volatile weather is another risk. ...

... The dam has become the focus of Egypt’s water anxieties. ...
So no matter if the dam came on line at all or not there will be water shortages and significant problems in Egypt soon and they will get worse.

Is there any chance that Egypt won't blame Ethiopia for them and that conflict won't break out, such as a strike on the dam? Is there any doubt that when the hot dry hits Ethiopia would use the water for its own desperate needs?
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Old 02-09-2020, 04:24 PM
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Is there any doubt that when the hot dry hits Ethiopia would use the water for its own desperate needs?
The sentence right before the one I quoted raises real room for doubt. Egypt is significantly stronger than Ethiopia.

There is the real risk the that result of taking more water is to make the water situation even more desperate while adding on significant issues with power. The decision makers for any kind of large scale water diversion likely won't be the ones responding personally to the desperation of water shortages. There might be pressure from the electorate depending on how big a chunk of the populace is affected. Also, Ethiopia is still relatively early in their transition to democracy with free and fair elections scheduled for this May. A slide back towards authoritarianism is another possibility rather than listening to the population most affected.
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Old 02-09-2020, 05:35 PM
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Is there any chance that Egypt won't blame Ethiopia for them and that conflict won't break out, such as a strike on the dam? Is there any doubt that when the hot dry hits Ethiopia would use the water for its own desperate needs?
Unlikely. Any strike on the GERD would only temporary hinder Ethiopian hydro-electrical development but it would invite retaliatory strikes to Egyptian infrastructure which would be utterly catastrophic in flood deaths alone (not to mention food/crops/industry/etc). Tough talk aside, Egypt can only deal with the situation that exists.
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Old 02-09-2020, 06:52 PM
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Ethiopia is, or ought to be, well within its rights. Egypt ought to respond by using Nile water more efficiently and/or maybe some desalination (although it's expensive.)
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Old 02-10-2020, 06:19 AM
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On paper, Egypt clearly outguns Ethiopia. But on the ground, other factors come into play - political will, Egypt's economy, the position of other countries on e.g allowing Egyptian overflights or troop passage.

Egypt would be very stupid to push the issue. This isn't the colonial days, and Egypt needs to get with the times. It would actually benefit in some ways from the dam, especially in drought times. But they will likely lack the vision to see it.
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Old 02-10-2020, 07:53 AM
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There is the real risk the that result of taking more water is to make the water situation even more desperate while adding on significant issues with power. The decision makers for any kind of large scale water diversion likely won't be the ones responding personally to the desperation of water shortages. There might be pressure from the electorate depending on how big a chunk of the populace is affected.
Ethiopia's topographical reality as an extremely high altitude mountainous country (split in half by the rift valley) makes any river diversion plan a technological impossibility.

Unless we as humans crack the code to making water flow up and around a mountain range higher than the Alps (and five times it's area) the Nile will always empty into Sudan where it currently does.
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Old 02-10-2020, 08:34 AM
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Well, the planet's eroding environment coupled with what is apparently an out-of-control and steady planet wide population increase doesn't bode well for the future. It's difficult not to envision those kinds of conflicts in the not too distant future.

However, since war and its aftershocks of starvation and disease have always been the best forms of population control, the populations of the areas at war may decrease to the point that even the environmentally damaged area can support, thus easing tensions and ending the war. On the other hand, if the war itself further damages the environment, everyone's a loser.
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Old 02-10-2020, 12:12 PM
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war and its aftershocks of starvation and disease have always been the best forms of population control
You and I appear to have different definitions of "best".

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everyone's a loser.
This, however, is all too likely.
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Old 02-10-2020, 02:04 PM
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.
Egypt would be very stupid to push the issue. This isn't the colonial days, and Egypt needs to get with the times. It would actually benefit in some ways from the dam, especially in drought times. But they will likely lack the vision to see it.
I'm not sure what this exactly means. From what I can see, the gains for Egypt are pretty theoretical and based on awesome coordination/cooperation between all the dam operators. Colour me -> And what exactly does "get with the times" mean in this context?

Last edited by CarnalK; 02-10-2020 at 02:07 PM.
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Old 02-10-2020, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Egypt is concerned over a dam being built on the Nile by Ethiopia which may reduce their water supply. Negotiations are ongoing.


So no matter if the dam came on line at all or not there will be water shortages and significant problems in Egypt soon and they will get worse.

Is there any chance that Egypt won't blame Ethiopia for them and that conflict won't break out, such as a strike on the dam? Is there any doubt that when the hot dry hits Ethiopia would use the water for its own desperate needs?
Why Global Warming certainly plays a role, the problem of Egypt's eroding coastline is more due to the Aswan dam and how it prevent silt from being deposited at the Delta.

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Well, the planet's eroding environment coupled with what is apparently an out-of-control and steady planet wide population increase doesn't bode well for the future. It's difficult not to envision those kinds of conflicts in the not too distant future.

However, since war and its aftershocks of starvation and disease have always been the best forms of population control, the populations of the areas at war may decrease to the point that even the environmentally damaged area can support, thus easing tensions and ending the war. On the other hand, if the war itself further damages the environment, everyone's a loser.
Population is not, in any way, in an out-of-control increase and hasn't been for decades.
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Old 02-10-2020, 08:40 PM
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Population is not, in any way, in an out-of-control increase and hasn't been for decades.
A million more each year when water supply is dropping is a problem there. Wouldn’t be if there was enough water.
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Old 02-10-2020, 08:58 PM
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People have been telling the Egyptians since this project began that they needed to get cracking on building solar-powered desalinization plants all along their coastline, and they've chosen not to do it, instead waiting until the last minute to start complaining and threatening. Ethiopia is spending a staggering amount of money building this, and they're going to supply green energy to their entire country, with more to spare, as well as helping people downstream mitigate droughts (eventually) and flooding (as soon as they start filling the dam).
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:35 PM
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Is there any chance that Egypt won't blame Ethiopia for them and that conflict won't break out, such as a strike on the dam? Is there any doubt that when the hot dry hits Ethiopia would use the water for its own desperate needs?
Let me ask -- and then answer -- a broader question: is there any chance that conflicts over water in general, particularly in hot dry areas like those mentioned, exacerbated by corresponding conflicts over crop failures and hence massive failure of the food supply -- will lead to wars in these regions, and spur waves of attempted mass migration like we've never seen before? Some countries are much more generous than others in accepting endangered refugees, but we all have our limits -- practical, physical, financial, and political.

Those who believe that climate change is no big deal should pay more attention to the central America caravans trying to move into the US now -- and for the moment, at least, starvation is not their major problem. Imagine the situation when sheer starvation becomes their major motivation. It's really ironic -- but true -- that most countries that will be hardest hit by the deleterious effects of climate change will be the ones least able to afford it or survive it.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:32 AM
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Let me ask -- and then answer -- a broader question: is there any chance that conflicts over water in general, particularly in hot dry areas like those mentioned, exacerbated by corresponding conflicts over crop failures and hence massive failure of the food supply -- will lead to wars in these regions, and spur waves of attempted mass migration like we've never seen before?
Obviously yes. The point of this thread is how soon it could be and a possible first flash point.

FWIW Egypt is moving ahead with solar desal some ... but maybe not aggressively enough for the likely needs.
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Old 02-11-2020, 01:21 AM
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TBH, Egypt can make a lot of gains in potable water from the Nile just by not polluting the ever-living fuck out of their stretch.
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Old 02-11-2020, 08:04 AM
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I think that war over resources are going to be the norm going forward. Humans are wasteful and don't slow reproduction - of course we are going to start running out of stuff, but it won't bother some people as long as their stock portfolio keeps hitting quarterly benchmarks.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:30 AM
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Population is not, in any way, in an out-of-control increase and hasn't been for decades.
What?! Where have you been?! LOL

World Population Growth Not Sustainable

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It's a fact: world population growth remains totally unsustainable – over 230,000 people are added to world population each day. That is a net gain - births minus deaths. But few people understand the true drivers of this increasing world population. Even fewer know how to effectively intervene.

Long established and widely practiced social norms – low status of women & girls, bias against modern contraception, and large ideal family size – are the strongest drivers rapid growth of the population. If somebody tries to tell you that population growth is "slowing down," ask them to explain the graphic on the left.
You'll have to go to the web site to see "the graphic on the left".
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:21 AM
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I think that war over resources are going to be the norm going forward. Humans are wasteful and don't slow reproduction - of course we are going to start running out of stuff, but it won't bother some people as long as their stock portfolio keeps hitting quarterly benchmarks.
Sorry, I wasn't listening, my stock portfolio was hitting its quarterly benchmark.

We're definitely going to be looking at increasing resource wars over the next half-century. There's been many studies that have estimated extra deaths from direct effects of climate change, but there have also been a few that have tried to estimate deaths caused by indirect effects. By far, the largest predicted cause of death from indirect effects are climate change inducted wars. It is coming, it is obvious it is coming, but we cannot do anything because jobs (!), the economy (!), profit (!) and something-something draconian social reengineering. Of course, it has been demonstrated that addressing climate change does not need to be an economic disaster.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:14 PM
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is there any chance that conflicts over water in general, particularly in hot dry areas like those mentioned, exacerbated by corresponding conflicts over crop failures and hence massive failure of the food supply -- will lead to wars in these regions, and spur waves of attempted mass migration like we've never seen before?
But we have seen it before, because it's already happening. The Syrian crisis of the last decade, with wars and waves of attempted mass migration, has many causes. But a significant one is water shortages exacerbated by climate change.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:39 PM
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What?! Where have you been?! LOL

World Population Growth Not Sustainable



You'll have to go to the web site to see "the graphic on the left".
That is a problem, but if you had checked with Hans Rosling you would had realized that we should not panic.

https://www.gapminder.org/videos/don...ut-population/
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Using state-of-the-art 3D graphics and the timing of a stand-up comedian, world-famous statistician Professor Hans Rosling presents a spectacular portrait of our rapidly changing world. With seven billion people already on our planet, we often look to the future with dread, but Rosling's message is surprisingly upbeat. Almost unnoticed, we have actually begun to conquer the problems of rapid population growth and extreme poverty.

Across the world, even in countries like Bangladesh, families of just two children are now the norm - meaning that within a few generations, the population explosion will be over. A smaller proportion of people now live in extreme poverty than ever before in human history and the United Nations has set a target of eradicating it altogether within a few decades.
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Old 02-11-2020, 03:05 PM
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What?! Where have you been?! LOL

World Population Growth Not Sustainable

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...If somebody tries to tell you that population growth is "slowing down," ask them to explain the graphic on the left.

You'll have to go to the web site to see "the graphic on the left".
I'd just show 'em this table
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:07 PM
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I'd just show 'em this table
And both of you are missing the point. You need to compare a specific country's pop growth compared to it's resource (primarily water) availability. I did a quick look and Bahrain is both rapidly growing and water-poor.* Those two lines are going to intersect (if they haven't already) at which point one of the two variables is going to have to change. My guess is that they aren't going to suddenly find a shit-load of water, so...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...on_growth_rate

and

http://www.fao.org/3/y4473e/y4473e08.htm (see Table 4).
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Old 02-12-2020, 11:44 AM
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People have been telling the Egyptians since this project began that they needed to get cracking on building solar-powered desalinization plants all along their coastline, and they've chosen not to do it, instead waiting until the last minute to start complaining and threatening. Ethiopia is spending a staggering amount of money building this, and they're going to supply green energy to their entire country, with more to spare, as well as helping people downstream mitigate droughts (eventually) and flooding (as soon as they start filling the dam).
I was about to say, what about solar powered desalinization?

Egypt is saying the dam will restrict their water supply and cause problems. Ethiopia is saying the dam will mitigate droughts and flooding in Egypt/Sudan. Could someone elaborate a little more, for example how much water does Egypt think they will lose, is Ethiopia disputing the loss of water downstream, does Egypt dispute the drought/flood mitigation, etc.

~Max
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Old 02-12-2020, 01:06 PM
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Egypt is wholly dependent of the Nile for everything, literally everything. You can't over stress the Nile to Egypt's basic survival (from the dawn of civilization itself to today). Just look at the country, that is 100 million people straddling a damn long river in the middle of a goddamn big desert. Compare that to Ethiopia, they have 110 million people spread over a lush, green, cool, mountainous countryside.

Since most Egyptians live in the north, water issues are even more bad then it looks there. It is a very fragile country and Egypt doesn't want to rely on upstream countries for its daily survival. But unfortunately they do, and Egypt has little to nothing to offer upstream countries who themselves would like to use the Nile waters for their own self benefit.

Sudan likes the GERD because it will ensure a lack of flooding during Ethiopia's heavy rainy season, enabling better water and land management. Sudan isn't as fragile to water issues as Egypt for many geographical reasons
  • it isn't entirely a desert country
  • it has multiple rivers which come from multiple sources
  • it is too upstream to worry about water scarcity driven by water use by even further upstream countries
Also Sudan acknowledges that the GERD is essentially a

Ethiopia wants the GERD for the massive economic/developmental benefits that having Africa's largest hydro-electrical dam would will reap. However the dam will lower the amount of yearly water Egypt receives (until the reservoir gets fully filled). Egypt wants many things from Ethiopia which Ethiopia is unwilling to provide.

The Egyptians wanted the Ethiopians to make a deal with them before even starting the project which (of course) the Ethiopians ignored making the existence of the GERD a fait accompli.

Egypt also wants Ethiopia to fill its reservoir over many (7-10?) years and to have certain control/veto over the function of the dam to which Ethiopia also finds as wholly unacceptable. Ethiopia is willing to fill the dam over a few years out of neighbourly courtesy, but they will not do anything that would hand over sovereignty to Egypt.

The GERD is a national project for Ethiopia with no external funding, only government bonds and private funds.

Last edited by orcenio; 02-12-2020 at 01:09 PM.
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Old 02-12-2020, 01:14 PM
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Also Sudan acknowledges that the GERD is essentially a
...done deal.
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Old 02-12-2020, 02:00 PM
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However the dam will lower the amount of yearly water Egypt receives (until the reservoir gets fully filled). Egypt wants many things from Ethiopia which Ethiopia is unwilling to provide.
I found one source that says Egypt wants at least 40 billion cubic tons of water to come out of the dam per year. A 2017 Telegraph article says Egypt currently receives 55 billion cubic tons per year, out of the annual flow of 88 billion cubic tons. I do not know how large the reservoir is or how long Ethiopia wants to take to fill it up.

Coming from a point of total ignorance, it seems to me that if Ethiopia wants to retain sovereignty over the new reservoir, they had better fill it up without artificially reducing flow to Egypt or Sudan at all. So the reservoir would be filled from Ethiopia's existing share of the Blue Nile flow. If Ethiopia is going to reduce the water flow to downstream countries, she will need to reach an agreement before commencing operations.

In the spirit of the OP, are there any papers projecting the effects of climate change on the flow of the Blue Nile? I found one that says the water flow will become more unpredictable. I would think a dam would actually help to mitigate those effects. I understand there is a population growth factor when it comes to water consumption, but I don't see a direct causal relationship between climate change and population growth. I also imagine there might be projections of water consumption per capita that account for climate change, it makes sense to say warmer weather means more water consumption, but being so unfamiliar with the topic I can't find any. I would imagine that most of consumption is agricultural, though.

~Max
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Old 02-12-2020, 02:44 PM
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Coming from a point of total ignorance, it seems to me that if Ethiopia wants to retain sovereignty over the new reservoir, they had better fill it up without artificially reducing flow to Egypt or Sudan at all. So the reservoir would be filled from Ethiopia's existing share of the Blue Nile flow. If Ethiopia is going to reduce the water flow to downstream countries, she will need to reach an agreement before commencing operations.
The rub is that Ethiopia has sovereignty over the reservoir, the land, and ultimately the source of the river (which isn't even named "the Nile" until it enters Sudan. Ethiopians always called it "Black Abay").

Ethiopia doesn't need a deal to retain sovereignty over these things; it already holds all the cards due to this geographic reality. However since Egypt is threatening Ethiopia over water rights/access, a deal should be made but Ethiopia is not going to stall function of the GERD waiting for one (stalling function would be a concession of Ethiopian sovereignty and allow delay tactics to be put into play). Ethiopia is also unwilling to allow Egypt to be the sole profiteer of a river that starts and flows from their own country.

Last edited by orcenio; 02-12-2020 at 02:47 PM.
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Old 02-12-2020, 03:09 PM
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I found one source that says Egypt wants at least 40 billion cubic tons of water to come out of the dam per year. A 2017 Telegraph article says Egypt currently receives 55 billion cubic tons per year, out of the annual flow of 88 billion cubic tons. I do not know how large the reservoir is or how long Ethiopia wants to take to fill it up.
I think your first link is a good example of just how far apart Egypt and Ethiopia were/are in regards to the GERD. Egypt (as a compromise remember) offering to control the $4 billion hydro-electrical dam of which Ethiopia has been solely building/financing since 2011...
Quote:
Ethiopia on Wednesday formally rejected a proposal by Egypt to operate a $4 billion hydropower dam the Horn of Africa country is constructing on the Nile, further deepening a dispute between the two nations over the project.

In a press conference in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa, Sileshi Bekele, minister for water, irrigation and energy described Egypt’s plan including the volume of water it wants the dam to release annually as “inappropriate.”

Last edited by orcenio; 02-12-2020 at 03:09 PM.
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Old 02-12-2020, 03:49 PM
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The rub is that Ethiopia has sovereignty over the reservoir, the land, and ultimately the source of the river (which isn't even named "the Nile" until it enters Sudan. Ethiopians always called it "Black Abay").

Ethiopia doesn't need a deal to retain sovereignty over these things; it already holds all the cards due to this geographic reality. However since Egypt is threatening Ethiopia over water rights/access, a deal should be made but Ethiopia is not going to stall function of the GERD waiting for one (stalling function would be a concession of Ethiopian sovereignty and allow delay tactics to be put into play). Ethiopia is also unwilling to allow Egypt to be the sole profiteer of a river that starts and flows from their own country.
You mean there isn't an existing treaty concerning water rights between Egypt/Sudan/Ethiopia? I don't believe it, especially with the British occupation of Egypt and their love for formal treaties.

A quick search comes up with an article that references a 1902 treaty granting the British exclusive access to water rights of the Blue Nile, signed by Emperor Menelik II of Ethiopia. The reference is this, "[...]Article III provided Britain with exclusive right for the utilization of the Blue Nile and its tributaries." The same treaty is covered here. According to some random website called Horn Affairs, the text of the treaty reads,
"Article III. His Majesty the Emperor Menelik II, King of Kings of Ethiopia, engages himself towards the Government of His Britannic Majesty not to construct, or allow to be constructed, any work across the Blue Nile, Lake Tsana, or the Sobat which would arrest the flow of their waters into the Nile except in agreement with His Britannic Majesty’s Government and the Government of the Soudan."
You draw a distinction between the Nile and the Black Abay, but I'm not sure if there is a distinction between the Blue Nile and the Black Abay. Everywhere I look, the Blue Nile is the same body as the Black Abay.

Again, I am not an expert on international law. But generally I think the successive governments of Egypt inherit the British rights and obligations under previous treaties, as Ethiopia inherits her rights and obligations from her imperial incarnation, until such time as a new treaty has voided the existing ones.

~Max
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Old 02-12-2020, 04:04 PM
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That sounds like an interesting argument, but factually Ethiopia hasn't beheld herself to that treaty and is plain unlikely to do so. I think the next course of action would be some sort of war?
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Old 02-12-2020, 04:45 PM
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That sounds like an interesting argument, but factually Ethiopia hasn't beheld herself to that treaty and is plain unlikely to do so. I think the next course of action would be some sort of war?
There are other options. Aside from attempts at reconciliation (such as the failed attempts you mentioned), other options include political/economic sanctions, international pleading, propaganda, covert military actions, and overt military actions.

~Max
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Old 02-12-2020, 04:54 PM
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There are other options. Aside from attempts at reconciliation (such as the failed attempts you mentioned), other options include political/economic sanctions, international pleading, propaganda, covert military actions, and overt military actions.

~Max
In line with your "covert military action" the chief project manager and public face of the GERD Simegnew Bekele was found shot dead in his car two years ago in Addis Ababa in what many conspiracy theorists claim was an assassination (officially labeled a suicide).

But nothing short of strong international sanctions or overt military actions could stop the dam now. Both options seem either extremely unlikely or ultimately catastrophic to Egypt.
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Old 02-12-2020, 05:01 PM
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You mean there isn't an existing treaty concerning water rights between Egypt/Sudan/Ethiopia? I don't believe it, especially with the British occupation of Egypt and their love for formal treaties.
There have been treaties between Egypt and Sudan, but Egypt ignored Ethiopia until they began construction of GERD. Guess it kinda sucks that they treated Ethiopia like they don't exist...

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Coming from a point of total ignorance, it seems to me that if Ethiopia wants to retain sovereignty over the new reservoir, they had better fill it up without artificially reducing flow to Egypt or Sudan at all.
That's kind of impossible... they can't fill it without reducing the flow.
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Old 02-12-2020, 06:17 PM
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... Egypt currently receives 55 billion cubic tons per year, out of the annual flow of 88 billion cubic tons.
Er, there's no such thing as a "cubic ton".

Significant volumes are often expressed as cubic meters, each of which - if fresh water - has a mass of one tonne (aka metric ton, which equals 1000 kg).
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Old 02-12-2020, 06:51 PM
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That's kind of impossible... they can't fill it without reducing the flow.
When I wrote that, I had in mind something like, Ethiopia currently draws say 2 Gm3/yr (billion cubic meters per year) of water and the rest is for Sudan and Egypt, so Ethiopia would have to reduce its own consumption to 1 Gm3/yr to fill the reservoir the difference of 1 Gm3/yr. But it turns out, apparently Ethiopia had signed away their sovereign right to control the river a hundred years ago...

~Max
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Old 02-12-2020, 06:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Xema View Post
Er, there's no such thing as a "cubic ton".

Significant volumes are often expressed as cubic meters, each of which - if fresh water - has a mass of one tonne (aka metric ton, which equals 1000 kg).
Yes, you got me. I had things confused after reading different sources.

~Max
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Old 02-12-2020, 07:31 PM
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But it turns out, apparently Ethiopia had signed away their sovereign right to control the river a hundred years ago...

~Max
Just to be clear. You are aware that Ethiopia doesn't recognize this lack of sovereignty over the Abay? This is not something that they respect.

Last edited by orcenio; 02-12-2020 at 07:32 PM.
  #38  
Old 02-12-2020, 07:43 PM
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In line with your "covert military action" the chief project manager and public face of the GERD Simegnew Bekele was found shot dead in his car two years ago in Addis Ababa in what many conspiracy theorists claim was an assassination (officially labeled a suicide).

But nothing short of strong international sanctions or overt military actions could stop the dam now. Both options seem either extremely unlikely or ultimately catastrophic to Egypt.
OK, sounds reasonable enough. Not the conspiracy, (well maybe the conspiracy), but I mean the possibility of the dam opening within the next year or so.

Back to the thread title, how does climate change factor into this?

DSeid's original cite said climate change will impact the coastline by soiling farmland with saltwater. It in turn cites an NPR article which quotes a certain Mr. Mohammad al-Raey from the University of Alexandria,
"'The sea level rise would affect all coasts and all beaches,' he says, looking out over the brilliant blue waters of the Mediterranean along Egypt's north coast. 'The models show the Middle East would increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation.'
[...]
Raey says the effects of hotter weather, including reduced rainfall, would cut agricultural productivity by 15 to 20 percent – a huge blow to a country already struggling to feed its people."
Also cited is a USAID fact sheet.

Ají de Gallina seemed to respond in part by claiming that the Aswan dam is responsible for most of Egypt's eroding coastline. No cite was provided, so I did a precursory search. I found a 1988 paper in the Journal of Coastal Research which says that "[o]n average, rates of erosion increased 3 to 5 times" after the first stage of the High Dam was completed in 1964. Notably, that doesn't include the city of Alexandria, which was thought to be protected from erosion due to its seawall.

I am curious though, as to whether the erosion rates in that paper are skewed by the period before the reservoir reached capacity in 1976.

I am also unsure just how much Dr. Al-Raey's prediction relies on erosion from rising sea levels as opposed to warmer weather and less rainfall. And then, erosion from the sea is compatible with erosion from the Aswan Dam.

~Max
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Old 02-12-2020, 08:14 PM
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Just to be clear. You are aware that Ethiopia doesn't recognize this lack of sovereignty over the Abay? This is not something that they respect.
Yeah, I am aware. Not that my opinion matters, since I'm just a random Joe on the internet, but unilaterally refusing to respect a treaty doesn't vibe with my idea of international law.

That being said, I think it's good that Ethiopia will fill the reservoir up over a number of years rather than all at once. At least they aren't trying to destroy Egypt by diverting the river to the Red Sea - if I remember correctly, this threat was a common refrain back when Mamluks ruled over Egypt.

I've been looking for numbers about the proposed water flows. A Foreign Policy article says the new dam would hold 67 billion cubic meters of water, and that Egypt wants a guarantee of at least 40 billion (down from their current 55 billion). Ethiopia responded by offering 31 billion. You can't expect an agricultural country in the middle of the desert to willingly cut its water consumption by some 56%.

Well, I guess if only about 70% of the water consumed comes from the Blue Nile (I think I read that somewhere), annual per capita water consumption would necessarily drop something like 39%. Still a big hit.

I wonder, what about Lake Nasser? Could that lake be used as a reservoir for Egypt, to offset the shortage, until the new dam is completed?

~Max
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Old 02-13-2020, 11:21 AM
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What?! Where have you been?! LOL

World Population Growth Not Sustainable



You'll have to go to the web site to see "the graphic on the left".
The idea that population growth is completely out of control has been pretty thoroughly debunked. The reproductive rate in all countries has shown to go down to manageable levels when they hit 1st world status. The world population will continue to increase in our lifetime but not indefinitely.

https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth

Last edited by Dark Sponge; 02-13-2020 at 11:23 AM.
  #41  
Old 02-13-2020, 12:39 PM
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Dark Sponge you are discussing a different subject: global population growth. This thread is discussing specific regions and the mismatch of local growth rate to limitations of critical resources, in this case fresh water.

Even within the United States the devil will (eventually) be in the local details, with some areas have no issue with adequacy of fresh water supplies and others having local economies hurt hard by its relative lack, with some migration within the country possibly resulting from such.
  #42  
Old 02-13-2020, 01:10 PM
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Dark Sponge you are discussing a different subject: global population growth. This thread is discussing specific regions and the mismatch of local growth rate to limitations of critical resources, in this case fresh water.

Even within the United States the devil will (eventually) be in the local details, with some areas have no issue with adequacy of fresh water supplies and others having local economies hurt hard by its relative lack, with some migration within the country possibly resulting from such.
I am always surprised at how little emphasis there is on population levels in comparison with climate change, as if CC is a big deal and pop levels are a separate topic...

Regardless, I found this article interesting wrt to the Nile region.
  #43  
Old 02-14-2020, 12:45 PM
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I am always surprised at how little emphasis there is on population levels in comparison with climate change, as if CC is a big deal and pop levels are a separate topic...
Well sure, the huge growth of horseshit in the streets of America and other nations was related to the increase of population before..

The problem now is to ignore that an increase in the population does not mean that we will or should continue increasing the use of old technology or the old ways of polluting our environment.

Last edited by GIGObuster; 02-14-2020 at 12:50 PM.
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