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Old 02-10-2020, 08:16 PM
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Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - Breaking News


We've had a couple of threads in IMHO talking about this, but now that deaths have topped 1000 (and the daily toll topped 100 for the first time), I thought I'd start a thread where we can simply monitor the progress of this virus and the fight against it.

There are two main websites tracking the virus:

Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE - this site is excellent; by far my preferred of these two

https://thewuhanvirus.com - in addition to maps and numbers, this site does offer links to news stories about the virus.
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Old 02-11-2020, 08:43 AM
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Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE - this site is excellent; by far my preferred of these two
It's really disturbing how much that website looks like a game of Pandemic.

I've got a cruise coming up in a few months, and I must admit I'm getting a bit nervous about it. Cruise ships are already bad enough about concentrating disease.
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Old 02-11-2020, 04:43 PM
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Data point: I don't have it. Yet.
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Old 02-11-2020, 05:02 PM
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I like the idea of a central thread. Of course I just saw this after posting in one of the others.


Data point: I may have had it.
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:15 PM
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45,115 confirmed infections
1,115 deaths
4,781 recovered
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Old 02-12-2020, 10:29 AM
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The WHO has named the virus COVID-19; I've asked the mods to update the thread title.
Quote:
“We now have a name for the disease and it’s COVID-19,” World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva.

Tedros said that “co” stands for “corona”, “vi” for “virus” and “d” for “disease”, while “19” was for the year, as the outbreak was first identified on December 31.

Tedros said the name had been chosen to avoid references to a specific geographical location, animal species or group of people in line with international recommendations for naming aimed at preventing stigmatisation.
The article explains:
Quote:
WHO had earlier given the virus the temporary name of “2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease” and China’s National Health Commission this week said it was temporarily calling it “novel coronavirus pneumonia” or NCP.
Hopefully China will adopt the COVID-19 moniker and we can at least be on the same page as to what we call it.
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Old 02-12-2020, 11:59 AM
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As a sidebar post on treatments and vaccines:

This wiki page lists a number of vaccine developments underway.

Quote:
In January 2020, multiple organizations and institutions began work on creating vaccines for 2019-nCoV based on the published genome.
Testing of the novel (as yet unlicensed) antiviral Remdesivir is starting.

Quote:
U.S.-based biotech Gilead, known for its HIV and hepatitis C treatments, has struck a partnership with Beijing's China-Japan Friendship Hospital to test out an antiviral drug called remdesivir in actual humans in Wuhan, the apparent origin site of the coronavirus outbreak. (Gilead shares rose 5% in Monday trading.)

Atypical for drug production, this is an example of how private companies and government organizations can work together in the event of a crisis to speed things up. In emergency situations, drug companies are able to perform safety trials to prove that treatments won't actively harm people without the usual red tape that can make new therapies take years to get to market.

It appears that Chinese authorities believe the situation is serious enough in the country to warrant a hurry-up approach.
From the Remdesivir wiki page

Quote:
In late January 2020, remdesivir was administered to the first US patient to be confirmed to be infected by 2019-nCoV, in Snohomish County, Washington, for "compassionate use" after he progressed to pneumonia. While no broad conclusions were made based on the single treatment, the patient's condition improved dramatically the next day,[18] and he was eventually discharged.[19] Also in late January 2020, Chinese medical researchers stated to the media that in exploratory research considering a selection of 30 drug candidates, three of them, remdesivir, chloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir, seemed to have "fairly good inhibitory effects" on 2019-nCoV at the cellular level. Requests to start clinical testing were submitted,[20][21] and on February 6, 2020 a clinical trial of remdesivir began in China.[22]
j
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Old 02-12-2020, 01:41 PM
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Earlier today, someone said a case had been confirmed nearby. Someone else showed up and reported a case that was even closer. I suggested looking at the headlines before panicking, so someone got out their phone, did a search and, sure enough, there were three or four more cases reported. At that point everyone started talking at the same time. When someone finally stopped for air, I convinced the group to check the source of those headlines and, better yet, to check the homepage of any reputable newspaper. A few tense minutes later, it was agreed that it was just a rumor. So, I'm posting here to confirm the existence of stupid rumors.
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Old 02-12-2020, 02:35 PM
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Our lab has a sample which may contain the virus. A lot of people are freaking out although if they follow normal specimen handling procedures there is no danger. I think most are just enjoying the drama.

On the up side, my husband and I do not have to travel to Beijing in April. The conference itself may not take place.
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Old 02-12-2020, 10:12 PM
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Everyone thought yesterday's addition of only 3500 or so was possibly a sign that things were working…



They were wrong.

60,328 confirmed infected now
1,368 dead
5,995 recovered

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-12-2020 at 10:12 PM.
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Old 02-13-2020, 12:25 AM
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The flights that evacuated Canadians out of Wuhan/Hubei province landed at CFB Trenton and the people are all in a two-week quarantine on the base.
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Old 02-13-2020, 12:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
Everyone thought yesterday's addition of only 3500 or so was possibly a sign that things were working…



They were wrong.

60,328 confirmed infected now
1,368 dead
5,995 recovered
175 of those cases from outside China
1 death from outside China (Phillipines)

I'm not going to panic just yet.

ETA: I believe the spike in cases reflects a new methodology for diagnosis. They are now accepting diagnosis using scans, rather than just RNA confirmation of the virus. This has led to the jump in confirmed cases - cases that would not have been confirmed before are being done so now.

Last edited by Euphonious Polemic; 02-13-2020 at 12:33 AM.
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Old 02-13-2020, 02:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic View Post
I'm not going to panic just yet.
Was there some call for panic in the thread that I didn't see?
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
Was there some call for panic in the thread that I didn't see?
Was there a claim that there was a call for panic in the thread that I didn't see?
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Old 02-13-2020, 09:34 AM
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This thing about the new methods is correct. Also, a large part of the people that are now counted as being infected/died from the virus, actually presented/died earlier, but are only included in the figures now.

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Last edited by polar bear; 02-13-2020 at 09:35 AM.
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:36 AM
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Quote:
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Was there a claim that there was a call for panic in the thread that I didn't see?
I don't know what you didn't see and I don't know why you're inserting yourself into this as the question wasn't to you.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-13-2020 at 10:36 AM.
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Old 02-13-2020, 11:59 PM
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64,436 confirmed infected
1,383 dead
6,886 recovered

Japan has over 250 confirmed infected at the moment and had their first COVID-19 fatality today.

Hong Kong also had one death attributed to the virus.

More than 60 million people in China are starting their 4th week of lockdown.
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Old 02-14-2020, 12:10 AM
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Thanks, this thread seems timely.

I'm flying tomorrow. I plan to wear a surgical face mask. They aren't great at keeping out viruses, but I find they are excellent at keeping my nasal passages hydrated on the dry airplane, and that's been found to reduce the risk of contracting respiratory diseases in general. It will also remind me not to touch my face.

Data point: my friend who was evacuated from China finally completed their 2 weeks of self-quarantine, and is relieved to rejoin the world.
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Old 02-14-2020, 12:29 AM
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Stupid joke heard in the bar tonight...

What does coronavirus lead to?

SPOILER:
Lime disease
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Old 02-14-2020, 12:11 PM
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China is reporting today that over 1700 health workers have been confirmed infected and 6 have died.

ETA: Health care providers account for about 3.8% of all cases, according to the article.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-14-2020 at 12:12 PM.
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:45 PM
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I don't know what you didn't see and I don't know why you're inserting yourself into this as the question wasn't to you.
Ok, I'll spell it out for you. The reason is that your question was disingenuous, and I find it just kind of weird that you would adopt this kind of passive aggressive rhetorical style in a discussion of facts and news, as though it's some kind of point-winning debate. You posted some potentially frightening statistics that were quite obviously the reason for the perfectly reasonable response that we shouldn't necessarily panic, nobody accused you of saying "we should all panic".
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:34 PM
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More than 60 million people in China are starting their 4th week of lockdown.
I am curious about this aspect of the event. What are all those people doing as shut-ins all this time? Will there be a baby-boom in China around September/October? How are they getting food and supplies? What's the plan for getting back to normal - will they gradually allow people to resume regular activities, or just tell everyone "all clear" and everyone just clicks back into life, like nothing happened?
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:40 PM
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We're in our 70s and apparently boast fairly strong immune systems. We're in a small California mountain county and aren't exposed to many people at all. We plan to spend a few days in the Monterey-Santa Cruz area south of San Francisco which will be crawling with visitors from all over. If we hear of ONE case in that area, my wife will insist on canceling. Is she prudent, or paranoid, or what?
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:01 PM
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We're in our 70s and apparently boast fairly strong immune systems. We're in a small California mountain county and aren't exposed to many people at all. We plan to spend a few days in the Monterey-Santa Cruz area south of San Francisco which will be crawling with visitors from all over. If we hear of ONE case in that area, my wife will insist on canceling. Is she prudent, or paranoid, or what?
In making a decision like that, I ask myself, "What are the consequences if I get it wrong-- serious or minor?" Sometimes you get something seriously wrong, but the situation itself is not serious. IMHO this is potentially very serious. If you don't have to go there right now, why do it? Why even take the chance? I tend to err on the side of prudence, but that's just me. I'd avoid big coastal cities, big international crowds, and all cruises for the near future. My 2 cents.
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:12 PM
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I am curious about this aspect of the event. What are all those people doing as shut-ins all this time? Will there be a baby-boom in China around September/October? How are they getting food and supplies? What's the plan for getting back to normal - will they gradually allow people to resume regular activities, or just tell everyone "all clear" and everyone just clicks back into life, like nothing happened?
They are allowed out every couple days to get food. China has strong penetration of the internet so they are spending time on sites like Sina Weibo with 445 million active users:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sina_Weibo
The priority is getting the economy moving again so they will reopen the factories but discourage large gatherings.
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:16 PM
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In making a decision like that, I ask myself, "What are the consequences if I get it wrong-- serious or minor?" Sometimes you get something seriously wrong, but the situation itself is not serious. IMHO this is potentially very serious. If you don't have to go there right now, why do it? Why even take the chance? I tend to err on the side of prudence, but that's just me. I'd avoid big coastal cities, big international crowds, and all cruises for the near future. My 2 cents.
I tend to agree with this in principle. We are not very good at assessing risks. There are several components to think about: What is the likelihood of the risk occurring? What is it's impact if it does occur? In this case, the likelihood is very low. However, the impact is potentially very high.

That said, even if you do catch this virus, chances are you wont notice it more than just a cold. Not everyone coming in contact with this is dying, far from it. However, what is your risk of NOT going to Monterey, compared to going? You may be out a small deposit for your lodging? But, if that buys you peace-of-mind, it's probably worth it. I would not want to have worry on my vacation like that.
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:17 PM
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In making a decision like that, I ask myself, "What are the consequences if I get it wrong-- serious or minor?" Sometimes you get something seriously wrong, but the situation itself is not serious. IMHO this is potentially very serious. If you don't have to go there right now, why do it? Why even take the chance? I tend to err on the side of prudence, but that's just me. I'd avoid big coastal cities, big international crowds, and all cruises for the near future. My 2 cents.
I bet there are some cheap deals on cruises right now. They need some marketing spin - possible bonus of 2 extra free weeks on board.
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:20 PM
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I tend to agree with this in principle. We are not very good at assessing risks. There are several components to think about: What is the likelihood of the risk occurring? What is it's impact if it does occur? In this case, the likelihood is very low. However, the impact is potentially very high.

That said, even if you do catch this virus, chances are you wont notice it more than just a cold. Not everyone coming in contact with this is dying, far from it. However, what is your risk of NOT going to Monterey, compared to going? You may be out a small deposit for your lodging? But, if that buys you peace-of-mind, it's probably worth it. I would not want to have worry on my vacation like that.
Not to mention, RioRico & spouse are in their 70s (as am I). Hard as it is to admit, age affects your ability to withstand infections.
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Old 02-14-2020, 06:23 PM
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They are allowed out every couple days to get food. China has strong penetration of the internet so they are spending time on sites like Sina Weibo with 445 million active users:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sina_Weibo
The priority is getting the economy moving again so they will reopen the factories but discourage large gatherings.
Factories are large gatherings.
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Old 02-14-2020, 08:08 PM
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More than 60 million people in China are starting their 4th week of lockdown.
Your number is off by an order of magnitude. Hundreds of millions are in lockdown. Shanghai alone has 30M in lockdown

The various factories that the company I work for have in China are starting to get back on line depending on the location. This can mean a 2 week hard quarantine outside the factory area before the first 30 people can enter the factory. These factory complexes employ thousands, tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands of staff. And they all need fresh face masks every shift.

In fact, our company has spun up their own mask line just to supply our line workers in China.
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Old 02-14-2020, 09:47 PM
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Not to mention, RioRico & spouse are in their 70s (as am I). Hard as it is to admit, age affects your ability to withstand infections.
Thanks for the responses. We still have a couple days before deciding to save deposits or not. No, the trip isn't seriously necessary, and losing deposits won't seriously hurt. But we'll tend on the side of prudence. If you see no report of us visiting Ed Ricketts' lab, you'll know why.
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Old 02-14-2020, 10:25 PM
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In making a decision like that, I ask myself, "What are the consequences if I get it wrong-- serious or minor?" Sometimes you get something seriously wrong, but the situation itself is not serious. IMHO this is potentially very serious. If you don't have to go there right now, why do it? Why even take the chance? I tend to err on the side of prudence, but that's just me. I'd avoid big coastal cities, big international crowds, and all cruises for the near future. My 2 cents.
Santa Cruz is not a big city, and doesn't have an airport or a dock receiving passengers from infected areas. No cases there that I've heard. I'm probably more at risk where I live in the Bay Area than he would be. And I'm not worried. I'm not in my 70s, only 68 though.
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Old 02-14-2020, 10:27 PM
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I bet there are some cheap deals on cruises right now. They need some marketing spin - possible bonus of 2 extra free weeks on board.
I got an ad from Travelocity today about cheap fares to Hong Kong. Sure.
Asian cruises are way down.

I know someone who is a marketing exec at a Japanese tech company, and she didn't go to our meeting because she was busy cancelling meetings in China.
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Old 02-14-2020, 10:29 PM
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Thanks for the responses. We still have a couple days before deciding to save deposits or not. No, the trip isn't seriously necessary, and losing deposits won't seriously hurt. But we'll tend on the side of prudence. If you see no report of us visiting Ed Ricketts' lab, you'll know why.
I live in Fremont, and I figure I'm more at risk than if I lived in Santa Cruz or Monterey, and I'm not worried. I think there are a few cases in Santa Clara.
I doubt there are many Chinese tourists in Santa Cruz at the moment.
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Old 02-14-2020, 10:36 PM
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I wouldn't worry about traveling to the Santa Cruz area at this time. Avoid the Boardwalk if you think tourists are a risk, but otherwise enjoy yourself.
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Old 02-14-2020, 10:43 PM
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Not to mention, RioRico & spouse are in their 70s (as am I). Hard as it is to admit, age affects your ability to withstand infections.
Thanks for the responses. We still have a couple days before deciding to save deposits or not. No, the trip isn't seriously necessary, and losing deposits won't seriously hurt. But we'll tend on the side of prudence. If you see no report of us visiting Ed Ricketts' lab, you'll know why.
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Old 02-15-2020, 12:43 AM
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Today's numbers:

67,088 confirmed infected
1,526 dead
8,283 recovered
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Old 02-15-2020, 01:29 AM
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I wouldn't worry about traveling to the Santa Cruz area at this time. Avoid the Boardwalk if you think tourists are a risk, but otherwise enjoy yourself.
Agree. I live very near Santa Cruz. It's a pocket concentration of people, isolated and on the south end (with a mountain barrier) of a ginormous population in the San Jose, SF peninsula, East Bay and SF areas. 250k-ish folk in this county, vs something like 8 million up there.
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Old 02-15-2020, 02:24 AM
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Thanks for the responses. We still have a couple days before deciding to save deposits or not. No, the trip isn't seriously necessary, and losing deposits won't seriously hurt. But we'll tend on the side of prudence. If you see no report of us visiting Ed Ricketts' lab, you'll know why.
I just came back from Disneyland. I didn't go into the park, but I did stay at one of the hotels and was in Downtown Disney a lot. There was no sign of concern from Disney not anyone else, and remember that this was where the measles outbreak hit.
Disney is a hundred times more likely to have problems than Santa Cruz.
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Old 02-15-2020, 12:03 PM
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New virus cases fall; WHO says China bought the world time
Quote:
The U.N. health agency’s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, urged governments to step up their efforts to prepare for the virus, saying “it’s impossible to predict which direction this epidemic will take.”

Tedros told a gathering of international foreign and security policy leaders in Germany on Saturday that WHO is encouraged there has not yet been widespread transmission outside China and that “the steps China has taken to contain the outbreak at its source appear to have bought the world time.”

“We’re encouraged that an international team of experts is now on the ground working closely with Chinese counterparts to understand the outbreak,” Tedros told the Munich Security Conference.

But he said the agency is “concerned by the continued increase in the number of cases in China,” and by reports about the number of health workers who have been infected or died.

“We’re concerned by the lack of urgency in funding the response from the international community,” Tedros said.

“We must use the window of opportunity we have to intensify our preparedness,” he added. “China has bought the world time. We don’t know how much time.”
Also in the article is the news that France has recorded their first death due to COVID-19.
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Old 02-15-2020, 07:35 PM
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The AP has posted a primer of sorts on the virus.

I won't quote the whole article; these are the subjects covered:

WHAT IS THE NEW VIRUS?
HOW FAST IS THE OUTBREAK GROWING?
IS QUARANTINE WORKING?
COULD THE VIRUS BE SPREADING SILENTLY IN OTHER PLACES?
HOW DOES INFECTION SPREAD?
WHAT ABOUT TREATMENTS AND VACCINES?
  #42  
Old 02-16-2020, 12:10 AM
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69,256 confirmed infected
1,669 dead
9,626 recovered
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Old 02-16-2020, 03:22 PM
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Those people who keep monitoring and posting COVID-19 deaths should keep this in mind:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chi...oo-51581622840

As in so much data coming out of China, the death toll is probably made up and bears no relation to what is really happening. At least that is the belief of people looking at the data. Perhaps there has been more analysis since this Barron's article, but I haven't seen any refutation.

Not that it means much. China's arbitrary 2% death rate is probably as accurate as any other possible estimate this early in the cycle. Since we don't know how many people are getting infected, we can't calculate a death rate.
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:54 PM
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I got twitchy this morning, week and a half ago I took our roomie in for her cardioversion and now I have a sore throat that is not starting how my normal rhinovirus/colds start. So sinc ethis past week was mrAru's last week at his job [now his job is packing up the barn for moving] we have enough food to do 2 weeks of self quarantine just in case, and if it gets worse I am going to make an appointment with my primary [figures, 1.5 weeks before my appointment to redo all my vaccinations *sigh*]
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Old 02-16-2020, 05:23 PM
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aruvqan. Here are the facts: there are 15 known cases in the US. There were two instances of husband-wife transmission.3 have been released as recovered. The other 9 cases have not spread. The most 3 new cases all came from evacualtion flights from the epicenter, and all of those are in a hard quarantine.

If IIRC, ignoring those 3 cases that came in on the evacuation flight, there have been no other new infections in the US in the past 2 weeks (since my wife returned from Shanghai).

There is a mysterious case of a Japanese visitor to Hawaii, who has tested positive. Highly likely he got it before or on the plane to Hawaii.

The US has 300 m+ population, and 12 active cases. You have a greater chance of being struck by lightening in the US.

(None of this is to downplay the conditions in China especially the epicenter. The company I work for has a very large factory there, I have colleagues, friends and work friends that are in the hot zone, thru marriage I have literally hundreds of family in the province. I also lived in China for SARS, and total understand the paranoia that creeps into every facet of daily life. BUT, we are in the US with 15 cases total and no sign of an epidemic in sight.)
  #46  
Old 02-16-2020, 08:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by China Guy View Post
aruvqan. Here are the facts: there are 15 known cases in the US. There were two instances of husband-wife transmission.3 have been released as recovered. The other 9 cases have not spread. The most 3 new cases all came from evacualtion flights from the epicenter, and all of those are in a hard quarantine.

If IIRC, ignoring those 3 cases that came in on the evacuation flight, there have been no other new infections in the US in the past 2 weeks (since my wife returned from Shanghai).

There is a mysterious case of a Japanese visitor to Hawaii, who has tested positive. Highly likely he got it before or on the plane to Hawaii.

The US has 300 m+ population, and 12 active cases. You have a greater chance of being struck by lightening in the US.

(None of this is to downplay the conditions in China especially the epicenter. The company I work for has a very large factory there, I have colleagues, friends and work friends that are in the hot zone, thru marriage I have literally hundreds of family in the province. I also lived in China for SARS, and total understand the paranoia that creeps into every facet of daily life. BUT, we are in the US with 15 cases total and no sign of an epidemic in sight.)
I know, but since chemo I have been slightly paranoid =) and mrAru's company has a factory in China and ships techs and productss back and forth ...
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  #47  
Old 02-16-2020, 11:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rbroome View Post
Those people who keep monitoring and posting COVID-19 deaths should keep this in mind:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chi...oo-51581622840

As in so much data coming out of China, the death toll is probably made up and bears no relation to what is really happening. At least that is the belief of people looking at the data. Perhaps there has been more analysis since this Barron's article, but I haven't seen any refutation.

Not that it means much. China's arbitrary 2% death rate is probably as accurate as any other possible estimate this early in the cycle. Since we don't know how many people are getting infected, we can't calculate a death rate.
<shrug>

They are the only numbers available.
  #48  
Old 02-16-2020, 11:20 PM
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71,331 confirmed infected
1,775 dead
10,972 recovered
  #49  
Old 02-17-2020, 08:46 AM
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https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.XkqYEChKjtU

US evacuates US citizens on cruise ship, to quarantine in the US. But 14 of them tested positive for the virus and flew on the same planes as the others (with some separation.) Some US citizens chose to stay on the cruise ship, and not risk being infected on the flight home.

Other countries are also offering to evacuate their citizens.
  #50  
Old 02-17-2020, 09:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aruvqan View Post
... mrAru's company has a factory in China and ships techs and products back and forth ...
You Won't Catch The New Coronavirus Via Packages Or Mail From China (NPR)
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