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  #1201  
Old 04-23-2019, 07:24 AM
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On the other hand, there are some suggestions that pro-Brexit voters are increasingly disillusioned and apathetic, whereas anti-Brexit voters are more energised, so turnout might favour Remain/Soft Brexit parties.
I'm not seeing that here.
  #1202  
Old 04-23-2019, 07:42 AM
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And yes, I could google/research it, but I'd like to hear the takes from our European correspondents.
As a lurker who has found this thread incredibly informative and fascinating, can I take a second to thank all of our European correspondents for this thread? I've learned far more here than from all other sources on Brexit. Your explanations, knowledge, insights, and occasional humor have made this one of the best ever threads on the SDMB.
  #1203  
Old 04-23-2019, 07:44 AM
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I'm not seeing that here.
I'm not seeing pro-Brexit voters becoming apathetic. Disillusioned, somewhat, but more significantly it's become clear that there isn't one pro-Brexit side: there are many, and what different groups are willing to accept in order to achieve an exit from the EU varies wildly amongst them.

Whether the softer-Brexit groups would side with Remain or Leave in the event of another referendum, given what we now know about the real effects of leaving the EU, remains to be seen. I wouldn't make any facile assumptions at this point.
  #1204  
Old 04-23-2019, 10:39 AM
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I'm not seeing pro-Brexit voters becoming apathetic. Disillusioned, somewhat, but more significantly it's become clear that there isn't one pro-Brexit side: there are many, and what different groups are willing to accept in order to achieve an exit from the EU varies wildly amongst them.

Whether the softer-Brexit groups would side with Remain or Leave in the event of another referendum, given what we now know about the real effects of leaving the EU, remains to be seen. I wouldn't make any facile assumptions at this point.
The other question is how, given the chance, people would order their preferences. E.g. if there was a referendum with 1)Remain, 2)Customs Union, 3)May's Deal, 4)No Deal as the options, would "Leavers" put all three Brexit options ahead of Remain, in which case the UK would leave *somehow* or would you have Remain coming out as a second or poss 3rd preference that attracts more votes than any of the other individual options?

It's an academic question because the chance of the UK doing anything as radical as presenting multiple options in a referendum and allowing/trusting people to set preferences is pretty small. But I'd be genuinely interested to see e.g. how big hte oppostion to No Deal among Leave voters is.
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Old 04-23-2019, 11:55 AM
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Farage's Brexit party seems to be gathering people from both Left and Right - even Galloway has endorsed it. And two of the prospective candidates, Claire Fox and Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, are alleged to be Trotskyist.
  #1206  
Old 04-23-2019, 12:43 PM
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And two of the prospective candidates, Claire Fox and Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, are alleged to be Trotskyist.
Both part of the Revolutionary Communist Party/Living Marxism/Spiked cult. They aren't Trotskyist, or even Left, in any meaningful sense these days. A fair bit of genocide denial, in amongst all the libertarian contrarianism, is more their bag.
  #1207  
Old 04-24-2019, 06:37 AM
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The other question is how, given the chance, people would order their preferences. E.g. if there was a referendum with 1)Remain, 2)Customs Union, 3)May's Deal, 4)No Deal as the options, would "Leavers" put all three Brexit options ahead of Remain, in which case the UK would leave *somehow* or would you have Remain coming out as a second or poss 3rd preference that attracts more votes than any of the other individual options?

It's an academic question because the chance of the UK doing anything as radical as presenting multiple options in a referendum and allowing/trusting people to set preferences is pretty small. But I'd be genuinely interested to see e.g. how big hte oppostion to No Deal among Leave voters is.
And here is that question answered: https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-a...of-soft-brexit

In a 4 way poll with Soft Brexit instead of my Customs Union option above, you can construct two perfectly rational analyses that Soft Brexit wins, and one where it loses immediately and Remain wins. The methods are:

1) Condorcet: which option wins the most 1:1s (e.g Soft Brexit vs Remain, No Deal vs May's Deal). Do this, and you find that the majority of people rank Soft Brexit higher than May's Deal (62%), No Deal (61%) and Remain (51%). NB that this is just relative ranking - being the 3rd vs the 4th option counts just as much as being 1st vs 2nd or 1st vs 4th. What this method shows is that compared to any other option, Soft Brexit is what most people would prefer.

2) Alternative Vote. If no option has a majority of 1st preferences, sack off the option with fewest 1st preferences and redistribute those people's second preferences. And repeat as necessary. Under this analysis, Soft Brexit is the first option to lose and Remain eventually scrapes a narrow majority over No Deal. This method delivers the result that most people want most - but it tends to be divisive on this question.

3) Coombs method. A reverse of AV above - in this case you rank the options on which has the most 4th preference votes (i.e. the option that is most unwanted) and dump the least popular on successive rounds. On this method Soft Brexit wins vs May's Deal, because Leave and Remain are both heavily unpopular as well as heavily popular.

Pick the bones out of that.
  #1208  
Old 04-24-2019, 08:42 AM
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Farage's Brexit party seems to be gathering people from both Left and Right - even Galloway has endorsed it. And two of the prospective candidates, Claire Fox and Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, are alleged to be Trotskyist.
Contrarian publicity-hounds unite! You have nothing to lose but your spot on Strictly Come Dancing!
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Old 04-24-2019, 09:18 AM
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And here is that question answered: https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-a...of-soft-brexit

In a 4 way poll with Soft Brexit instead of my Customs Union option above, you can construct two perfectly rational analyses that Soft Brexit wins, and one where it loses immediately and Remain wins. The methods are:

1) Condorcet: which option wins the most 1:1s (e.g Soft Brexit vs Remain, No Deal vs May's Deal). Do this, and you find that the majority of people rank Soft Brexit higher than May's Deal (62%), No Deal (61%) and Remain (51%). NB that this is just relative ranking - being the 3rd vs the 4th option counts just as much as being 1st vs 2nd or 1st vs 4th. What this method shows is that compared to any other option, Soft Brexit is what most people would prefer.

2) Alternative Vote. If no option has a majority of 1st preferences, sack off the option with fewest 1st preferences and redistribute those people's second preferences. And repeat as necessary. Under this analysis, Soft Brexit is the first option to lose and Remain eventually scrapes a narrow majority over No Deal. This method delivers the result that most people want most - but it tends to be divisive on this question.

3) Coombs method. A reverse of AV above - in this case you rank the options on which has the most 4th preference votes (i.e. the option that is most unwanted) and dump the least popular on successive rounds. On this method Soft Brexit wins vs May's Deal, because Leave and Remain are both heavily unpopular as well as heavily popular.

Pick the bones out of that.
That goddam Arrow! Why'd he have to come up with the Theorem of Impossibility? Makes everything so difficult.
  #1210  
Old 04-24-2019, 10:44 AM
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That goddam Arrow! Why'd he have to come up with the Theorem of Impossibility? Makes everything so difficult.
It's almost as if there are some questions where you cannot merely try to satisfy some notional majority, but have to have people charged with making a clear-headed assessment of the best interests of the nation as they see them and deciding policy accordingly - regardless of its apparent popularity.
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Old 04-24-2019, 11:09 AM
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It's almost as if there are some questions where you cannot merely try to satisfy some notional majority, but have to have people charged with making a clear-headed assessment of the best interests of the nation as they see them and deciding policy accordingly - regardless of its apparent popularity.
That sounds like a good system. Any idea where one might find people who will act in the best interests of the nation without regard to the apparent popularity of those actions?
  #1212  
Old 04-24-2019, 11:14 AM
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And here is that question answered: https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-a...of-soft-brexit
Interesting. In a nuanced poll, where voters were able to vote on some form of Brexit or Remain, only 45% voted for Remain as their first choice.
  #1213  
Old 04-24-2019, 11:26 AM
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The country favours a soft Brexit overall, but at this stage of the game I think the polarisation of the country has scotched the chances of its stability. And time is fast running out. A soft Brexit consensus should have been sought three years ago, not during a six month extension to the deadline.
  #1214  
Old 04-24-2019, 06:50 PM
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...
Pick the bones out of that.
Alternatively there could be a 2 question referendum like New Zealand did with it's voting system back in the '90s; the 2nd question only becomes relevant if the Leave wins again on the 1st question.

Question 1) Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Question 2) Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union under the proposed withdrawal agreement* or without an agreement?

*This is whatever agreement the government of the day negotiates with the EU, not necessarily the one currently on table.
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Old 04-24-2019, 07:53 PM
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Alternatively there could be a 2 question referendum like New Zealand did with it's voting system back in the '90s; the 2nd question only becomes relevant if the Leave wins again on the 1st question.

Question 1) Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Question 2) Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union under the proposed withdrawal agreement* or without an agreement?

*This is whatever agreement the government of the day negotiates with the EU, not necessarily the one currently on table.
No. There are a significant number of people for whom the first preference is a hard Brexit who have as their second preference remaining in the EU. With a hard Brexit you have sovereignty. If you remain in the EU you have a place at the table making the rules. For a soft Brexit you have neither--you have to accept the rules the EU adopts, but you don't have a voice in making them.
  #1216  
Old 04-25-2019, 01:27 AM
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Farage's Brexit party seems to be gathering people from both Left and Right - even Galloway has endorsed it. And two of the prospective candidates, Claire Fox and Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, are alleged to be Trotskyist.
If Galloway or some Trotskyists support something, that's very nearly conclusive proof that it's absolutely wrong. If they're the only names Faragé can get then it shows his party is screwed.
  #1217  
Old 04-25-2019, 06:29 AM
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That sounds like a good system. Any idea where one might find people who will act in the best interests of the nation without regard to the apparent popularity of those actions?
Don't pester me with these pettifogging details, I've got a vision to share.
  #1218  
Old 04-25-2019, 08:49 AM
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No. There are a significant number of people for whom the first preference is a hard Brexit who have as their second preference remaining in the EU. With a hard Brexit you have sovereignty. If you remain in the EU you have a place at the table making the rules. For a soft Brexit you have neither--you have to accept the rules the EU adopts, but you don't have a voice in making them.

Arguably you have the latter under no deal too.


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  #1219  
Old 04-25-2019, 09:09 AM
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I'm not seeing pro-Brexit voters becoming apathetic. Disillusioned, somewhat, but more significantly it's become clear that there isn't one pro-Brexit side: there are many, and what different groups are willing to accept in order to achieve an exit from the EU varies wildly amongst them.

Whether the softer-Brexit groups would side with Remain or Leave in the event of another referendum, given what we now know about the real effects of leaving the EU, remains to be seen. I wouldn't make any facile assumptions at this point.
What I'm seeing is that many Leave voters seem to have convinced themselves (or been gaslit by the media into believing) that they actually voted to leave without a deal. Even though the Leave literature before the referendum specifically promised that no moves to leave would be made until a deal had been agreed!
  #1220  
Old 04-25-2019, 12:47 PM
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Arguably you have the latter under no deal too.
Only for British companies who want to export goods and services to the EU--and this is only a small percent of the British and these rules encompass only a small percent of total EU regulation.
  #1221  
Old 04-25-2019, 01:08 PM
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Can you explain that? According to this Research Note prepared by the British parliamentary library, 44% of the UK's exports go to the EU, which is Britain's single largest trading partner.

https://researchbriefings.parliament...mmary/CBP-7851
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  #1222  
Old 04-25-2019, 01:32 PM
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np

Last edited by GreenWyvern; 04-25-2019 at 01:33 PM.
  #1223  
Old 04-25-2019, 05:22 PM
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Yeah, I was going to say that too, Northern Piper. Plus there's the knock-on effect; countries that now have barriers to trading with the EU will suffer, and contract, and be less able to make use of local industries for ancillary purposes.
  #1224  
Old 05-01-2019, 02:31 PM
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This article isn't about Brexit, but sentences I've highlighted suggest a possible dismal effect of EU withdrawal.

Quote:
... after putting down her suitcase [after arriving in Italy from Romania], she was presented with a bill for every gift, restaurant dinner and holiday bought during their courtship and told to settle the debt through prostitution. When she cracked up laughing, the “fiancé” beat her, tore up her clothes and urinated on her.
...
Accession to the EU in 2007 was supposed to bring Romanians passport-free travel, generous pay packets and stronger working rights. Instead, many have ended up as sex slaves in the sordid brothels of London, Berlin and Rome, where those who try to escape risk death or torture.
...
Though no one in Brussels wants to undermine European security, Europol director Rob Wainwright warned last year that it was unrealistic to expect the same relationship after Brexit and that the UK was sure to face “impediments.” This is because the UK’s resistance to accepting jurisdiction from EU courts means it is likely to be offered a relatively shallow “cooperation agreement.”

Even as the UK faces a weaker security relationship with EU countries, Romania’s anti-trafficking agency revealed that Britain overtook Germany in 2018 as the main destination for sex slaves.

“For the first time, unfortunately, the UK is the top destination country with 114 victims who were identified in the UK,” says agency spokesman Mihai Serban.
  #1225  
Old 05-03-2019, 09:49 AM
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Well, there were apparently local elections in Britain on the 1st, and the two main parties (and the UKIP) which support Brexit got trounced.
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With just over half of English local council vote results declared, the Conservative Party had lost 551 councillors and Labour had lost 73 councillors, according to a BBC tally.
So who won? The Lib Democrats may have come back to life (at least a little bit).
Quote:
The main beneficiary of the swing against the two main parties - which are in talks to try to break the impasse in the British parliament over Brexit - was the pro-second referendum Liberal Democrats, who had won 354 councillors so far, and said they hoped to make further gains in European Parliament elections on May 23.
So will the Brexit parties get the message, or not? well, according to PM May...
Quote:
May told her party in Wales: “There was a simple message from yesterday’s elections, to both us and the Labour Party: just get on and deliver Brexit.”
Stay tuned for further follies.

ETA: Reference: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1S906B

Last edited by The Stainless Steel Rat; 05-03-2019 at 09:51 AM.
  #1226  
Old 05-03-2019, 09:55 AM
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Well, there were apparently local elections in Britain on the 1st, and the two main parties (and the UKIP) which support Brexit got trounced.

So who won? The Lib Democrats may have come back to life (at least a little bit).

So will the Brexit parties get the message, or not? well, according to PM May...

Stay tuned for further follies.
Apparently a number of pro- and anti-Brexit voters used the local elections to throw a little tantrum by scrawling on their voting papers.
  #1227  
Old 05-03-2019, 10:31 AM
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Well, there were apparently local elections in Britain on the 1st, and the two main parties (and the UKIP) which support Brexit got trounced.


So who won? The Lib Democrats may have come back to life (at least a little bit).


So will the Brexit parties get the mvessage, or not? well, according to PM May...


Stay tuned for further follies.

ETA: Reference: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1S906B
I'm unsure as to what message Brexit parties should take from last night as I'm fairly confident the message to Brexit parties at the EU elections in a couple of weeks will be slightly different. I think the direction of travel for the Tories should be fairly clear cut if they wish to remain a relevant electoral force in the coming weeks, months or even years. The direction of travel for the Labour Party is, I think, less clear cut.

Last edited by Fuzzy_wuzzy; 05-03-2019 at 10:32 AM.
  #1228  
Old 05-03-2019, 11:17 AM
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On thing I've not seen is how many former UKIP councillors were re-elected as Independents. Does anyone have any info?
  #1229  
Old 05-03-2019, 11:25 AM
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I'm unsure as to what message Brexit parties should take from last night as I'm fairly confident the message to Brexit parties at the EU elections in a couple of weeks will be slightly different. I think the direction of travel for the Tories should be fairly clear cut if they wish to remain a relevant electoral force in the coming weeks, months or even years. The direction of travel for the Labour Party is, I think, less clear cut.
I’m not sure you can get much of a message about Brexit from the UK’s local council elections. Clearly the Conservative Party losses indicate the government is unpopular, but that’s hardly news. Labour should have gotten an upswing from the Tories’ poor fortunes, but instead lost seats as well. That should have left the Liberal Democrats with the most to gain, but they could only split the votes of dissatisfaction with the Independents and the Greens. Arguably, the Independents did the best, which is like a cricket game where the leading batsman is Others.

It’s hard to find a good analogy for UK politics over the past few days. The Defence Minister was just fired for leaking details of a National Security Council meeting.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi...eporting-story
Meanwhile the Labour Party Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, attended a May Day rally and made a speech in front of a banner featuring Stalin and Mao, plus Soviet style flag wavers.
https://metro.co.uk/2017/05/02/the-p...o-see-6609968/
Meanwhile, neither party will say what they’re going to do about Brexit.

Best analogy I can come up with? It’s a belly-flop contest at a sewage retention pond.
  #1230  
Old 05-03-2019, 11:38 AM
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Best analogy I can come up with? It’s a belly-flop contest at a sewage retention pond.
Pretty much. Everybody's angry at the political establishment, but not all for the same reason - some because they think the UK should already have left the EU, some because they think Brexit is an utter shambles and should be abandoned, some because Parliament can't agree on anything after a bazillion votes, and some just want to watch the world burn.

In the upcoming European elections this will likely translate into the pro-Brexit parties doing very well, on the basis that the best way to show the EU that MEPs are a bunch of corrupt, argumentative and useless incompetents who can't accomplish anything and only turn up to collect their taxpayer-funded salaries is to elect a bunch of corrupt, argumentative and useless incompetents who can't accomplish anything and only turn up to collect their taxpayer-funded salaries.
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Old 05-03-2019, 12:05 PM
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In the upcoming European elections this will likely translate into the pro-Brexit parties doing very well, on the basis that the best way to show the EU that MEPs are a bunch of corrupt, argumentative and useless incompetents who can't accomplish anything and only turn up to collect their taxpayer-funded salaries is to elect a bunch of corrupt, argumentative and useless incompetents who can't accomplish anything and only turn up to collect their taxpayer-funded salaries.

That would, admittedly, show us what fer.
What fer what I have no idea, but I would still respect the quintessential whatferitness of it, if you follow my meaning.


For the record, I don't follow my own meaning.
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Old 05-03-2019, 01:50 PM
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That would, admittedly, show us what fer.
What fer what I have no idea, but I would still respect the quintessential whatferitness of it, if you follow my meaning.


For the record, I don't follow my own meaning.
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  #1233  
Old 05-17-2019, 04:15 AM
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Any thoughts on the Brexit situation?

Right now it looks like the big front-runner in the British EU Parliament elections will be the Brexit party--with as many or more votes than Labour and the Conservatives put together.

That there will be a fourth vote on May's withdrawal deal in early June which will lose heavily.

That May will be resigning in early June.

That the Labour-Conservative negotiations on Brexit are dead--the final nail being that May will not be around to implement a deal.

That with a very large number of Conservative MPs throwing their hat in the ring for the leadership contest to succeed May it will take a long time to select the next leader (the final two cadidates will go to a vote by Conservative Party members--unless one of them withdraws).

Naturally Parliament will take a several week long Summer Recess.

The result being that come October the government and Parliament still won't have made any decisions--and the UK is scheduled to leave the EU October 31.

So what's going to happen?
  #1234  
Old 05-17-2019, 04:59 AM
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That the Labour-Conservative negotiations on Brexit are dead--the final nail being that May will not be around to implement a deal.
45 minutes after you posted that the talks were officially declared dead, and for pretty much the reason you state.
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Old 05-17-2019, 06:06 AM
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I don't think a fourth submission of May's withdrawal bill will pass. I won't be surprised at all if that vote is cancelled.

What I'm curious about is if May will try the indicative votes again, but using a different format. I'm presuming that Parliament isn't bound by its rules to only offer yes/no votes. So I'd like to see May list all the proposed future options ranging from an immediate WTO exit to Article 50 revocation. There may be anywhere from 7-15 different options. Have a series of votes where MP's can vote for as many options as they like, but after each round about a third of the least popular options get dropped. Keep eliminating the least popular options until only one is left. MP's could then agree that whatever option was decided, while not everybody's preferred option, was the least unpopular option and should be the consensus will of Parliament.

Oh, and while I'm dreaming, also declare that the Summer recess is cancelled and Parliament will be in session every single day until a decision is made and some bill is passed.
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Old 05-17-2019, 11:12 AM
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I don't get how everyone's so horrified about the Brexit Party doing so 'well' when it's not really pushing the barrier that UKIP achieved in 2014. The real interesting matter will be turnout, I think. Labour are also freefalling because they continue to sit on the fence, and there's a chance they could become third behind the Lib Dems.
  #1237  
Old 05-21-2019, 06:54 AM
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In my neck of the woods it is very clear that the more that people are learning about the EU the more that escaping it's clutches is replacing previous indifference or believing that to remain imprisoned is a good idea.

The EU is profoundly undemocratic. The relationship between the EU commission and the European parliament makes this very obvious once it's looked into. The role that Germany and France have created for themselves is that which would previously have taken war to achieve, the loss of control of our borders, sovereignty, and law making machinery beyond little more than who collects the garbage is shocking but had not been realised by the general public. Well a bit more than that but get the idea?

Add to that the absolutely and literally shocking behaviour by May, her cabal, and the 1922 Committee et al has turned the Conservative party into toast. Now the probability is that the BREXIT party will rapidly morph into New Conservative in a similar way that Blair-the-war-criminal created New Labour.

If nothing else the future will be interesting!
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Old 05-21-2019, 08:28 AM
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Good video

Brexit: Endgame - The Hidden Money, with Stephen Fry
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Old 05-21-2019, 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Malaclypse the elder View Post
The EU is profoundly undemocratic.
You mean the EU whose Parliament we're literally about to elect representatives to?

Quote:
The relationship between the EU commission and the European parliament makes this very obvious once it's looked into. The role that Germany and France have created for themselves is that which would previously have taken war to achieve, the loss of control of our borders, sovereignty, and law making machinery beyond little more than who collects the garbage is shocking but had not been realised by the general public. Well a bit more than that but get the idea?
Yes. The idea is apparently that you don't understand how the EU works. It is at least as democratic as the UK's own Parliament is (possibly moreso, given how the House of Lords works), and if we withdraw the UK will almost certainly continue to be directly or indirectly affected by EU rules while losing all say in them, which sounds distinctly less democratic than staying in. Depending on the final arrangement, we may even have to keep paying the EU while receiving little in return, unlike now where there are substantial benefits to membership.

Also, despite the sly insinuations about Germany and France, Britain has been a driving force in EU legislation. Far from "loss of control of our borders, sovereignty and law-making machinery" we not only have substantial "control" over all those things but have even carved out special rights - for example, one of the reasons that all those immigrants pile up at Calais is because of an existing EU agreement to keep them from getting to the UK. Leave the UK and France has no incentive to hold them. So much for control of our borders. Plus, of course, any hard Brexit is going to wreak havoc with customs and border controls for years to come because it will take us that long to get the appropriate infrastructure in place.

As for laws, more than 95% of EU laws map directly onto existing UK laws, in large part because the UK has been instrumental in writing the EU laws (particularly in the financial sector). The main areas of contention are over offshoring and tax havens and - surprise, surprise - "once it's looked into" one finds that the wealthy backers and proponents of Brexit such as Jacob Rees-Mogg are the ones who don't like having to give up their tax shelters (JRM's business is domiciled in the Caymans) and who will profit mightily from Brexit while the rest of us suffer.

So in short, if you want less democracy, less influence over regulations that will affect the UK, and to hand your "sovereignty" to the wealthiest members of society who will tank the economy for their own personal profit while systemically dismantling the workers' rights the EU currently grant us, then by all means vote Brexit.

Quote:
Add to that the absolutely and literally shocking behaviour by May, her cabal, and the 1922 Committee et al has turned the Conservative party into toast.
The Conservatives have been falling apart for a long time - it's one of the reasons Cameron agreed to the referendum in the first place. May chose to grab the poisoned chalice in return for power, but no leader of any party was or will be able to deliver a Brexit as promised by the Leave campaign.

Quote:
Now the probability is that the BREXIT party will rapidly morph into New Conservative in a similar way that Blair-the-war-criminal created New Labour.

If nothing else the future will be interesting!
Any party involving Farage and Galloway will never be able to grow beyond a certain level - they're fine as a protest group but as the history of the UKIP and Respect parties shows they immediately crumble whenever they start to gain momentum. That said, God only knows what the Tories will become - if it weren't for the fact that Labour was also an utter shambles the Conservatives would have been out of office long ago.
  #1240  
Old 05-22-2019, 11:14 AM
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It looks possible - perhaps even likely - that the Conservatives are going to force the Prime Minister to resign on the literal eve of the EU Parliament elections, because why the fuck not?

That's the situation at 17:00 BST on the 22nd May 2019 anyway.
  #1241  
Old 05-22-2019, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Baron Greenback View Post
It looks possible - perhaps even likely - that the Conservatives are going to force the Prime Minister to resign on the literal eve of the EU Parliament elections, because why the fuck not?

That's the situation at 17:00 BST on the 22nd May 2019 anyway.
Just when one thinks that the Brexit situation can't get any more messed up, the UK says, "Hold my ale, and watch this."
  #1242  
Old 05-22-2019, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Baron Greenback View Post
It looks possible - perhaps even likely - that the Conservatives are going to force the Prime Minister to resign on the literal eve of the EU Parliament elections, because why the fuck not?

That's the situation at 17:00 BST on the 22nd May 2019 anyway.
Looking at the polling, it looks like the Tories could come 5th in the election, that must be unprecedented for a ruling party here.

Am I being too cynical here, or are they trying to get rid of her so they have to waste so long with a leadership election that time runs out on the extension, forcing no-deal leaving?
  #1243  
Old 05-22-2019, 12:03 PM
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18:00 BST update. The News Editor of Buzzfeed UK has just tweeted this:

Quote:
Tweeted by Alan White @aljwhite
Current status: Wondering if I need to inform our US editors that as of 6pm our chief whip is hiding from journalists in a toilet and the leader of the best polling party in the Euro elections is hiding on his bus from a mob of people armed with milkshakes
It's one of *those* days...

Last edited by Baron Greenback; 05-22-2019 at 12:07 PM.
  #1244  
Old 05-22-2019, 12:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Greenback View Post
It looks possible - perhaps even likely - that the Conservatives are going to force the Prime Minister to resign on the literal eve of the EU Parliament elections, because why the fuck not?
If they'd done it even yesterday and held a coronation today then they might have turned it around. But it's all too late now. The Tories are going to get slaughtered tomorrow and deservedly so.

BTW Boris was up here the other day and absolutely bombed his speech.
  #1245  
Old 05-22-2019, 01:31 PM
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nm

Last edited by PastTense; 05-22-2019 at 01:34 PM.
  #1246  
Old 05-22-2019, 01:32 PM
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In the UK it would probably be recommended to initiate a pass on the right.
  #1247  
Old 05-22-2019, 01:32 PM
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Related question: What's a "Wab"?
  #1248  
Old 05-22-2019, 01:40 PM
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Withdrawal Agreement Bill, aka the agreement May hammered out with the EU to guide the UK's exit from the EU and that has failed to pass parliament about 87 times at this point.
  #1249  
Old 05-22-2019, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Inner Stickler View Post
Withdrawal Agreement Bill, aka the agreement May hammered out with the EU to guide the UK's exit from the EU and that has failed to pass parliament about 87 times at this point.
#

The Bill hasn't been before Parliament yet, but close enough. The failed Meaningful Votes were on the agreed withdrawal text with the EU27, and the WAB is the governments translation of that into actual law. It's very much a last ditch attempt to force the issue, and likely doomed.

Anyway: 19:45 BST, and the Leader of the House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom, has just resigned her Cabinet position.
  #1250  
Old 05-22-2019, 01:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Stickler View Post
Withdrawal Agreement Bill, aka the agreement May hammered out with the EU to guide the UK's exit from the EU and that has failed to pass parliament about 87 times at this point.
Ah I see now, thanks!
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