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Old 01-27-2020, 07:17 PM
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Joe Burrow Opinions?


I'm clearly a Bengals fan. The Bengals are very likely taking Burrow in the draft. I'm stoked.

What are ya'lls thoughts on him, his game, his persona, stats last season, etc?
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Old 01-28-2020, 01:14 AM
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He obviously had an outstanding season at L.S.U. but I'm not one to get hyped up about QBs in the N.F.L. until they've shown that they can "do it" at the pro level for several seasons. Matter of fact I was watching the latest "Pro Football Weekly" show earlier today and on it Hub Arkush (the "czar" or "quarterback" of Pro Football Weekly as he's often introduced as) said that the facts are that 90% of quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the N.F.L. draft don't make it in the N.F.L. so I think that my skepticism of young quarterbacks is well justified.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:53 AM
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He obviously had an outstanding season at L.S.U. but I'm not one to get hyped up about QBs in the N.F.L. until they've shown that they can "do it" at the pro level for several seasons. Matter of fact I was watching the latest "Pro Football Weekly" show earlier today and on it Hub Arkush (the "czar" or "quarterback" of Pro Football Weekly as he's often introduced as) said that the facts are that 90% of quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the N.F.L. draft don't make it in the N.F.L. so I think that my skepticism of young quarterbacks is well justified.
90% sounds high. Seems like it depends on what the definition of “make it” is. We are talking about a league with an average career length of 3 years.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:58 AM
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In my inexpert opinion he seems to have all the physical skills needed. To be the star franchise quarterback for 10-15 years like everyone is looking for calls for more than that. The ability to read and react to defenses at NFL speed is the most important ability and can’t be measured until it happens.
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Old 01-28-2020, 03:18 PM
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90% sounds high. Seems like it depends on what the definition of “make it” is. We are talking about a league with an average career length of 3 years.
I'm pretty sure I heard Mr. Arkush correctly but even if I didn't the takeaway is that quarterbacks taken in the first round don't fulfill expectations very often (which leaves room for "gems" picked in later rounds) so as impressive as Joe Burrow was at L.S.U. it remains to be seen how he'll do in his "post-doc" football career.
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Old 01-28-2020, 03:49 PM
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I'm pretty sure I heard Mr. Arkush correctly but even if I didn't the takeaway is that quarterbacks taken in the first round don't fulfill expectations very often (which leaves room for "gems" picked in later rounds) so as impressive as Joe Burrow was at L.S.U. it remains to be seen how he'll do in his "post-doc" football career.
I guess the question then is what expectations are they supposed to fill? From whom? Pundits, the team drafting them, fans, sports media?

If you hope they are good enough to start a few games by year two and be serviceable, you probably have a large majority. Though that’s a low bar. If you expect them to lead your team from the bottom of the league to hoisting the Lombardi in their rookie year you’re going to be disappointed. I’m guessing it’s somewhere in between, but where?
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Old 01-28-2020, 06:12 PM
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I guess the question then is what expectations are they supposed to fill? From whom? Pundits, the team drafting them, fans, sports media?

If you hope they are good enough to start a few games by year two and be serviceable, you probably have a large majority. Though that’s a low bar. If you expect them to lead your team from the bottom of the league to hoisting the Lombardi in their rookie year you’re going to be disappointed. I’m guessing it’s somewhere in between, but where?
Okay, so I re-watched that segment of the show just now. The exact quote from Hub Arkush was: "We did a study at Pro Football Weekly and since 2000, 90% of quarterbacks taken in the first round fail. That's just the reality of it." So the comment is somewhat nebulous, agreed. However, if the general expectation is that first round picks (not just quarterbacks) will be starters and contributors right away and will eventually make it to Pro Bowls and onto All-Pro lists then maybe it's not hard to see what he was talking about. Maybe just ponder all the current starting QBs in the league and think to yourself which ones are truly top-level and then remind yourself (or look it up if you have to) in which round those guys were taken.
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Old 01-28-2020, 11:50 AM
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I know this is almost 3 years out of date but it’s still relevant.
https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/...d-quarterbacks
They used what to me is a good measure of what a “successful” QB is; being a multi-year starter in the NFL.

Going by that measure, they determined the percentage of successful QBs from 1990-2016 based on where they were picked in the draft:

QB's drafted 1990-2016
pick success %
1-16: 81%
17-32: 65%
2nd round: 48%
3rd round: 25%
4th round: 13%
5th round: 6%
6th round: 16%
7th round: 6%

Basically, the earlier you are drafted the more likely you will be successful. You can argue that teams may also be getting into the “sunk cost fallacy” where they figure that if they spent an early draft pick on a QB that they need to try to make it work, but being a starting QB means the team needs you to succeed or the whole team will fail. And if you have a Ryan Leaf you know that you can’t keep him as starter no matter what he cost you.

The “90% fail” stat is undoubtedly a hot take not based on any actual statistics. Most QBs drafted early work out at some point, and most successful QBs are drafted early. The QBs drafted later that shine (Brady, Wilson) stand out because they are outliers.
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Old 01-28-2020, 12:09 PM
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Thanks for sharing that, Atamasama -- very useful. Though, the writer's definition of "successful" is "multi-year starter at QB for the team that drafted you" (which, he acknowledges, isn't a full picture of "success"). By that standard, he's including players like JaMarcus Russell, Rick Mirer, Blake Bortles, and Blaine Gabbert as successes, which I think is pretty darned generous.

But, even by that generous defintion of success, he's still saying that one in five QBs drafted in the first half of the first round won't make it, and one in three drafted in the second half of the first round won't.

Either way, I agree, "90% fail" is an exaggeration.
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Old 01-28-2020, 12:21 PM
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Thanks for sharing that, Atamasama -- very useful. Though, the writer's definition of "successful" is "multi-year starter at QB for the team that drafted you" (which, he acknowledges, isn't a full picture of "success"). By that standard, he's including players like JaMarcus Russell, Rick Mirer, Blake Bortles, and Blaine Gabbert as successes, which I think is pretty darned generous.

But, even by that generous defintion of success, he's still saying that one in five QBs drafted in the first half of the first round won't make it, and one in three drafted in the second half of the first round won't.

Either way, I agree, "90% fail" is an exaggeration.
It has to be relative though. Bortles for example shouldn’t be on anyone’s all-time top QB list but he was a starter for most games in 5 seasons as a Jaguar and even got to the AFC Championship a couple of years ago (granted that was despite him, not because of him). He also owns a bunch of franchise records. QBs like him are better than the ones who are one-and-done like EJ Manuel. I’d call Bortles “successful” even if that’s a mediocre success.
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Old 01-28-2020, 12:44 PM
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It has to be relative though. Bortles for example shouldn’t be on anyone’s all-time top QB list but he was a starter for most games in 5 seasons as a Jaguar and even got to the AFC Championship a couple of years ago (granted that was despite him, not because of him). He also owns a bunch of franchise records. QBs like him are better than the ones who are one-and-done like EJ Manuel. I’d call Bortles “successful” even if that’s a mediocre success.
That's a fair point. I went through the list he had, of guys from the top half of the first round, and made some groupings on my own, admittedly subjective, judgment on success.

1) Clearly successful -- long-term starter, multiple playoff appearances, multiple All-Pro / Pro Bowl selections, etc. (14)
P. Manning, E. Manning, Bledsoe, Palmer, Alex Smith, Vick, Stafford, Newton, Luck, McNabb, McNair, Ryan, Rivers, Roethlisberger.

2) Moderately succesful -- long-ish term starter, may have led his team to the playoffs a few times (7)
George, Collins, Tannehill, Cutler, Culpepper, Bortles, maybe Harrington

3) It's still early, but looking successful (2)
Goff, Wentz

4) It's still early, but longer-term success is in doubt (2)
Mariota, Winston

So, even if I generously count all of those as "successful," that's 25 out of 47, or 53%. It just shows just how hard it is to predict who's going to be a successful NFL player, particularly at quarterback.

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Old 01-29-2020, 07:12 PM
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It has to be relative though. Bortles for example shouldn’t be on anyone’s all-time top QB list but he was a starter for most games in 5 seasons as a Jaguar and even got to the AFC Championship a couple of years ago (granted that was despite him, not because of him). He also owns a bunch of franchise records. QBs like him are better than the ones who are one-and-done like EJ Manuel. I’d call Bortles “successful” even if that’s a mediocre success.
I heartedly disagree. The ONLY reason he was a starter was because the Jags (stupidly) invested so much on him. Had he been a third round QB, he would have been replaced after 6 games.

"Not sucking all the time" should not be the definition of success.

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Old 01-28-2020, 12:21 PM
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Not a Bengals fan, but I think he is the real deal, too. He won't win a Super Bowl anytime soon (if ever) but he can definitely make Cincy and Baltimore the top two dogs in the AFC North, and likely get the Bengals over that playoff-drought hump. Probably another Phillip Rivers.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:41 PM
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I could be totally off base here, but I am wondering if he is a real life Bo Callahan ala Draft Day. I saw him play in a handful of games and it just didn't appear that his teammates really like him that much. Whenever he threw a touchdown I never saw any of his teammates go to him to celebrate. I did see him seek out a receiver to give a high five or whatever, but never the other way around. Whenever I saw him get sacked or knocked down I never saw a lineman offer him a hand to get up. When he went to the bench after a punt or turnover, I never saw him talking with anyone on the sideline. He either sat on the bench by himself or in between two backup QBs and never saw a word exchanged.

He seems to have all of the physical tools you could ask for. What kind of a leader he is in the NFL remains to be seen. I could be reading way too much into my observations, just wondering if I am the only one who has noticed it.
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Old 01-28-2020, 08:52 PM
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I have a personal theory as to why it’s hard to reliably draft a good QB.

I think we get an idea of what makes a good QB. Physically and mentally. So someone like Brees gets drafted (after the first round) and does well, despite not being the mighty statue that is expected. Then Wilson is drafted, also late, and most think he’s too short, and he also breaks records. Now being short is okay, having running skills is something to look for, and you get Kyler Murray drafted #1 overall. Lamar Jackson then lights up the league with his legs.

When the standard of what makes a good QB keeps changing it makes it even harder to find one that clicks.
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Old 01-28-2020, 10:09 PM
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In addition to what asahi said, Burrow played in the SEC, the toughest division in football. He wasn't padding his stats against minnows in a weak conference - he was beating the likes of Alabama.
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Old 01-28-2020, 10:27 PM
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Does Joe Burrow become the next Tom Brady or Joe Montana? I think that unfortunately that depends a lot on the franchise, the coaching, and supporting cast.

I don't know if we'll be talking about Burrow 10 years from now. The difference between Joe Montana and Jake Plummer is, Montana had Bill Walsh, the Debartolo family, and years of a system to work with. Plummer started in Arizona, and then ended with an aging Denver Broncos team. He still made the playoffs a few times with both teams but we don't talk about him now. Nevertheless, Plummer made the Cardinals better than they were. Plummer made the Broncos competitive after a legend retired, and they weren't that competitive again until some guy named Manning became their QB.

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Old 01-29-2020, 01:58 AM
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I've watched Burrow play. He's ridiculously good. I was wondering how many also thought so, or whether he was a one year wonder. That was a hell of a year!
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Old 01-29-2020, 02:18 AM
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I've watched Burrow play. He's ridiculously good. I was wondering how many also thought so, or whether he was a one year wonder. That was a hell of a year!
Even a "one year wonder" means playing at an extremely high level for 13(?) games, against some of the toughest opponents in the nation, and making very few mistakes (and a lot of great plays) over the course of about.....800 offensive snaps. So it is still a large sample size.
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Old 01-29-2020, 03:05 AM
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I've watched Burrow play. He's ridiculously good. I was wondering how many also thought so, or whether he was a one year wonder. That was a hell of a year!
Ridiculously good in college does not always translate to the pros. Even with a top program with a tough schedule. The pro game is just so much faster. I think he is about as close to being a lock as has come along in a long time but it’s still not possible to know. But whoever has #1 on draft day would be insane not to take him.
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Old 01-29-2020, 01:58 PM
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Ridiculously good in college does not always translate to the pros. Even with a top program with a tough schedule. The pro game is just so much faster. I think he is about as close to being a lock as has come along in a long time but it’s still not possible to know. But whoever has #1 on draft day would be insane not to take him.
I can't see the Bengals NOT taking him. We've had 9 years of Dalton, he's had his chances. We need a franchise QB and he seems to possess that "it" factor, along with supreme accuracy, throws such a catchable ball, great pocket awareness and escapability...
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:05 PM
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Does Joe Burrow become the next Tom Brady or Joe Montana? I think that unfortunately that depends a lot on the franchise, the coaching, and supporting cast.

I don't know if we'll be talking about Burrow 10 years from now. The difference between Joe Montana and Jake Plummer is, Montana had Bill Walsh, the Debartolo family, and years of a system to work with. Plummer started in Arizona, and then ended with an aging Denver Broncos team. He still made the playoffs a few times with both teams but we don't talk about him now. Nevertheless, Plummer made the Cardinals better than they were. Plummer made the Broncos competitive after a legend retired, and they weren't that competitive again until some guy named Manning became their QB.
Do you really think that's the only difference between Montana and Plummer?
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:50 PM
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I haven't watched enough tape to form an opinion, but Pro Football Focus loves him:

"Burrow’s high-end is truly unmatched in our six years of grading. Mayfield did it for more seasons, Kyler Murray did more as a runner, but Burrow flat-out buried elite defenses in a way we’ve never seen done before. He faced four of PFF’s top-10 highest graded defenses in the country in Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and Auburn. In those games he completed 72.6% of his passes, averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, 381.5 yards per game, and threw 13 TDs compared to one INT. Those are video game numbers against defenses that simply didn’t get passed on otherwise this season."
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Old 02-10-2020, 12:21 PM
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I haven't watched enough tape to form an opinion, but Pro Football Focus loves him:

"Burrow’s high-end is truly unmatched in our six years of grading. Mayfield did it for more seasons, Kyler Murray did more as a runner, but Burrow flat-out buried elite defenses in a way we’ve never seen done before. He faced four of PFF’s top-10 highest graded defenses in the country in Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and Auburn. In those games he completed 72.6% of his passes, averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, 381.5 yards per game, and threw 13 TDs compared to one INT. Those are video game numbers against defenses that simply didn’t get passed on otherwise this season."
Boner status: elevated
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Old 02-10-2020, 12:38 PM
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I haven't watched enough tape to form an opinion, but Pro Football Focus loves him:

"Burrow’s high-end is truly unmatched in our six years of grading. Mayfield did it for more seasons, Kyler Murray did more as a runner, but Burrow flat-out buried elite defenses in a way we’ve never seen done before. He faced four of PFF’s top-10 highest graded defenses in the country in Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and Auburn. In those games he completed 72.6% of his passes, averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, 381.5 yards per game, and threw 13 TDs compared to one INT. Those are video game numbers against defenses that simply didn’t get passed on otherwise this season."
In all seriousness though, those numbers really ARE frakkin' ridiculous. I mean...it's the best statistical season in the history of the game by a QB.
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Old 02-10-2020, 03:45 PM
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Do you really think that's the only difference between Montana and Plummer?
Of course not, and I wasn't really trying to compare the two. It's just to say that there aren't that many legendary quarterbacks on bad teams (not saying that Shanahan's Broncos were bad either). No QB does it on their own - they have to have a good structure to work with or they're not going to put up the numbers they would otherwise.
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Old 01-29-2020, 06:33 PM
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Imagine Burrow with the Patriots.

*shudder*
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Old 02-05-2020, 07:10 AM
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First off, congratulations to the Bengals on securing that #1 draft pick - one of the most significant Bengals’ achievements in recent years. Transition to the NFL doesn’t always go smoothly, but given the schedule he had, and what he showed on the field, I think he has a high probability of being a very good NFL QB. To win playoffs etc, though, I think the Bengals will need to further upgrade their coaching.
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:27 PM
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First off, congratulations to the Bengals on securing that #1 draft pick - one of the most significant Bengals’ achievements in recent years. Transition to the NFL doesn’t always go smoothly, but given the schedule he had, and what he showed on the field, I think he has a high probability of being a very good NFL QB. To win playoffs etc, though, I think the Bengals will need to further upgrade their coaching.
Hey! I resemble that remark!
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:30 PM
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For once, we may see some parity in the AFC North. Browns may yet rise despite their hollow-promise season, the Steelers are in decline, and Lamar Jackson will come back to earth.
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Old 02-07-2020, 02:03 PM
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Any QB who can rip up the Alabama defense is NFL-ready.
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Old 02-10-2020, 04:04 PM
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Any QB who can rip up the Alabama defense is NFL-ready.
Tim Tebow is still available.

Burrow is as close to a sure thing as you can get with a rookie QB. But that doesn’t make him a real sure thing. Looking at his mechanics and his college performance only gets you so far. It will all come down to how well he can read coverage in the 1-2 seconds it takes for him to do a 2-3 step drop at NFL speed. If forced to make a bet I would put money on him doing well but who really knows? It will be fun to watch.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:46 PM
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Tim Tebow is still available.

Burrow is as close to a sure thing as you can get with a rookie QB. But that doesn’t make him a real sure thing. Looking at his mechanics and his college performance only gets you so far. It will all come down to how well he can read coverage in the 1-2 seconds it takes for him to do a 2-3 step drop at NFL speed. If forced to make a bet I would put money on him doing well but who really knows? It will be fun to watch.
Man, if Tebow came to the Bengals, AND they hired Jon Kitna as their QB coach, there'd be an excess of crucifix armbands/headbands and pre and post-game prayer circles.
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Old 02-11-2020, 08:01 AM
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Man, if Tebow came to the Bengals, AND they hired Jon Kitna as their QB coach, there'd be an excess of crucifix armbands/headbands and pre and post-game prayer circles.
You’d have games with Steelers vs Kneelers.
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Old 02-07-2020, 02:07 PM
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LOL, if anyone, the Browns should know that's not true.
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Old 02-11-2020, 03:31 PM
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I'm a little late to the thread, but I'll add my likely redundant thoughts anyways.....

Burrow is as good of a QB prospect as I have ever seen. I'm very interested to see what his measurables are at the Combine mostly to see if he falls short anywhere. If he does it'll be interesting to see the mental gymnastics people go through to mark him down.

If I were to play devil's advocate here's where I'd start nitpicking:
1. He's basically a one-year-wonder. His 2018 was pretty good and you saw a lot of the seeds for what he'd do in 2019, but his overall body of work wasn't outstanding.
2. He's not a physical freak. He doesn't have elite speed, elite size, elite arm strength etc. Obviously none of that held him back this year, but maybe, just maybe, in the Pros it catches up with him, enough to make him just "ok" in the NFL.
3. He's old. At 23 years old he's out of band for the ideal age range for a rookie. As a QB this really doesn't matter a lot, but for other positions this would mean that 1-2 years of his "prime" is already used up.
4. He couldn't win the starting job at OSU. Somebody will dig up some background that points to him being a risk because of this. They'll probably use the same copy they used for Aikman back in the day.
5. Mitch Trubisky. Somebody will 100%, without a doubt, compare Burrow to Trubisky. Just wait.
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Old 02-11-2020, 03:41 PM
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After reading the rest of the thread.....you all spent way too many calories dissecting something Hub Arkush said. The dude is a asshat of the highest order. I feel like this is some corollary of Hanlon's Razor, if Arkush says it you should always start from the assumption that it's totally and completely wrong until proven otherwise.

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Old 02-11-2020, 04:38 PM
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Joe Burrow reminds me of Mitch Trubisky.
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Old 02-11-2020, 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by FlikTheBlue View Post
My prediction is that Joe Burrow is going to end up more like a Baker Mayfield or Mitch Trubisky rather than a Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson due to his going to a Bengals team that sucks. If somehow a team that is talented but just needs a QB somehow trade up to take him, he would have a much better chance of being a success. Am example of such a team this year would be the Titans.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamlet View Post
Joe Burrow reminds me of Mitch Trubisky.
You weren't even the first in the thread.

Last edited by Omniscient; 02-11-2020 at 04:54 PM.
  #40  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:59 AM
FoieGrasIsEvil's Avatar
FoieGrasIsEvil is offline
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No, Joe Burrow reminds himself of Trubiskey, only on the merits of same state, similar awards, etc.

Nobody's ever had a year like Burrow. He had a broken hand for part of the season at OSU which held him back. I truly believe he'll be all right anywhere he goes.
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