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  #51  
Old 02-15-2020, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Xema View Post
You really believe that an important effect of sanctuary policies has been to lower rates of sexual assault in cities that have adopted them?
Perhaps, How many do you require for it to be a good thing?
  #52  
Old 02-16-2020, 09:09 AM
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Would be interested to see evidence that sanctuary policies have resulted in reduced rates of sexual assault. My sense would be that such a connection is unlikely.
  #53  
Old 02-16-2020, 09:12 AM
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Shout out to an old classic ...
Not seeing any relevance to the present discussion.
  #54  
Old 02-16-2020, 09:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Xema View Post
Would be interested to see evidence that sanctuary policies have resulted in reduced rates of sexual assault. My sense would be that such a connection is unlikely.
https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...d-the-economy/
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Crime is statistically significantly lower in sanctuary counties compared to nonsanctuary counties. Crime is defined here as the total number of violent crimes—murders, rapes, robberies, and assaults—and property crimes—burglaries, larceny, motor vehicle thefts, and arsons—per 10,000 people. The data indicate that crime is statistically significantly lower in sanctuary counties in large central metro counties, small metro counties, micropolitan counties, and noncore, rural counties. Large central metro counties show the most pronounced difference. Large central metro sanctuary counties have 65.4 crimes fewer per 10,000 people than large central metro nonsanctuary counties.

Perhaps more importantly, the results of the CEM analysis show that crime is statistically significantly lower in sanctuary counties compared to nonsanctuary counties when statistically matching and then controlling for population characteristics, including total population and the foreign-born percentage of the population. The results of the CEM analysis show that there are, on average, 35.5 fewer crimes per 10,000 people in sanctuary counties—a result that is highly statistically significant.
BTW, got that via NPR: https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswi...ties-are-safer . No wonder Trump and henchmen want to get rid of them too.
  #55  
Old 02-16-2020, 10:26 AM
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The link doesn't seem to make it clear whether the lower crime rates were pre-existing, or are the result of sanctuary policies.
  #56  
Old 02-16-2020, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Xema View Post
The link doesn't seem to make it clear whether the lower crime rates were pre-existing, or are the result of sanctuary policies.
If the claim had been the opposite(crime rates are higher in sanctuary cities/counties/states) would you ask this question?
  #57  
Old 02-16-2020, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by GIGObuster View Post
https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...d-the-economy/

BTW, got that via NPR: https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswi...ties-are-safer . No wonder Trump and henchmen want to get rid of them too.

Is actual crime itself down, or just reporting of it?
  #58  
Old 02-16-2020, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Xema View Post
The link doesn't seem to make it clear whether the lower crime rates were pre-existing, or are the result of sanctuary policies.
It has to be noticed that you are still going for a straw man of what iiandyiiii really said. In essence, he mentioned how it is better to keep crime down rather than wasting a lot of money in deporting lots of parents or relatives of kids and young people that are American. Not that the crime rate changed from the past.

So your demand here is a bit irrelevant and following a lot of mistaken or misleading talking points from the right, I made my reply directing it to the big lie made by Trump and henchmen. That lie that goes as 'crime increased when a city becomes a sanctuary'. As studies did show, that was a big lie from right wing sources.

Mind you, in the past, other researchers found no significant increase in the crime rates of cities that became sanctuaries; as Trump and his bigots insisted and continue to insist.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ease-in-crime/
Quote:
Since then, public scrutiny of sanctuary cities has grown. For example, Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry stated that sanctuary cities “allow illegals to commit crimes, then roam free in our communities,” citing Los Angeles’s spike in crime in 2015 as evidence.

But is really true? Despite popular accounts, decades of research actually shows that immigrants – whether legal or illegal – tend to have lower crime rates.

Now, our new research shows that designating a city as a sanctuary has no statistically significant effect on crime.
The more recent research I linked to actually points that there is a significant difference, and it remains contrary to what Trump and others say.

https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...d-the-economy/
Quote:
The data are clear: Crime is statistically significantly lower in sanctuary counties compared to nonsanctuary counties. Moreover, economies are stronger in sanctuary counties—from higher median household income, less poverty, and less reliance on public assistance to higher labor force participation, higher employment-to-population ratios, and lower unemployment.

Last edited by GIGObuster; 02-16-2020 at 02:18 PM.
  #59  
Old 02-16-2020, 02:50 PM
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Is actual crime itself down, or just reporting of it?
Same question for those claiming that the crime rate in sanctuary cities is going up, right?
  #60  
Old 02-20-2020, 06:33 PM
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I just popped into this thread to propose one possible silver lining for Trump's election.

First we must acknowledge that Trump is as much a symptom as he is a disease. The power hungriness and rejection of legislative norms of the Republican party exists whether or not Trump is president. The post truth partisan propaganda of the right wing media exists whether or not Trump is president, and the xenophobic white identity reactionary portion of out populace who listen the that media exists whether or not Trump was president.

Fortunately for our Democracy Trump is too incompetent to fully make use of all of this. He was just lucky enough to be the first stumble into realization that the old rules no longer apply, that the truth is irrelevant and so long as you can find 34 senators who are more loyal to you than to the country, the president has unlimited power. Suppose rather than Trump who first realized this, it was someone who actually had the intelligence and political skills to wield that power effectively. Who wouldn't tweet their corruption out in the open for all the world to see, would provide a semblance of competence, and would know enough not to bribe a foreign leader on a phone call that others could hear.

Imagine if instead of Trump it was Nixon, or Joe McCarthy, or J Edgar Hoover who was in charge right now.

At least with Trump we have a chance to see how bad things have gotten, and take action against it before its too late.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 02-20-2020 at 06:35 PM.
  #61  
Old 02-22-2020, 02:15 AM
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Trump's election and Republican support undermined Republican alleged values. Deficits don't matter. Character doesn't matter. Defense doesn't matter. And so on.

That leaves less defendable motivations sech as greed, racism, coeruption, cruelty, etc.

That has to help, I would think

Their desperation suggests that even they don't believe they have much of a future.

Trump is also so out there, who can replace him? The old Republican establishment has been cut off. Donnie and Ivanka may not be able to fill Trymps' shoes.

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