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Old 09-10-2019, 04:28 PM
Wesley Clark is offline
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Any reason white men w/o college haven't shifted politically according to this poll


Not to pick on them, I'm just curious as to people's guesses as to why according to this poll, comparing it to the 2016 exit polls, both college educated men and women are moving to the left for the 2020 election and non-college women are also moving to the left, but non-college men are not.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-white...pj_HyPpPoC8kEc


Quote:
In the NBC/WSJ poll, 40% will definitely/probably vote for Trump and 52% definitely/probably for a Dem. Among whites:

White women/college
Trump 30%
Dem 63%

White women/non-college
Trump 43%
Dem 49%

White men/ college
Trump 44%
Dem 49%

White men/non-college
Trump 67%
Dem 22%
Compare that to the 2016 exit polls.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

Quote:
White women/college
Trump 44%
Dem 51%

White women/non-college
Trump 61%
Dem 34%

White men/ college
Trump 53%
Dem 39%

White men/non-college
Trump 71%
Dem 23%
Comparing the Dem vs GOP margin of the vote of 2016 vs 2020:

White college grad women +26% for the dems
White college grad men +19% for the dems
White non college grad women +33% for the dems
White non college grad men almost no change

White women w/o college went from 34% for the dem in 2016 to 49% for the dem in 2020. White men w/o college went from 23% to 22%.

Meanwhile white men with college went from 39% for the Dem in 2016 to 49% in 2020.

So what makes white men w/o college an outlier? I can understand women moving to the left with all the anti-abortion laws, but those were happening before 2016 too. White men w/o college are the only group that supports Trump more.
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Old 09-10-2019, 04:52 PM
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White men without college degrees are more afraid of losing what they already have than anything else.

Trump plays to that. It's that simple.
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Old 09-10-2019, 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Kent Clark View Post
White men without college degrees are more afraid of losing what they already have than anything else.

Trump plays to that. It's that simple.
I agree identity politics plays a role.

But you'd assume some of those college educated white men and white women voted Trump due to identity politics, as well as some of the non-college white women.

So all 4 demographic groups have voters motivated by identity politics, But only white men without college aren't moving away from Trump
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Old 09-10-2019, 05:37 PM
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I'd guess that it's because the conditions that led them to vote for Trump in 2016 are still in place and haven't changed. If a non-college-educated white man felt that his status as a white man was imperiled by liberalism or foreign immigration, those conditions are still there - nothing has happened between 2016-2019 to make such a person feel less threatened by liberalism or non-white immigration. If he's still watching the same news networks - Fox, Breitbart, etc - or perhaps CNN, MSNBC, etc. - little has changed on those networks that should change his opinion. Chances are, he's still doing the same work, earning the same pay as before. Nobody has adequately convinced him why he should not vote Trump.
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Old 09-10-2019, 06:57 PM
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If there is one group that Trump's rhetoric panders to, one group that he considers his base, non-college educate white men is it.

Meanwhile there is no Democratic nominee trying to reach them, offering them something else, a different path.

Until that occurs why would his support go down with them?
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:23 PM
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I'd guess that it's because the conditions that led them to vote for Trump in 2016 are still in place and haven't changed. If a non-college-educated white man felt that his status as a white man was imperiled by liberalism or foreign immigration, those conditions are still there - nothing has happened between 2016-2019 to make such a person feel less threatened by liberalism or non-white immigration. If he's still watching the same news networks - Fox, Breitbart, etc - or perhaps CNN, MSNBC, etc. - little has changed on those networks that should change his opinion. Chances are, he's still doing the same work, earning the same pay as before. Nobody has adequately convinced him why he should not vote Trump.
But aren't high school educated women also prone to these forms of identity politics? Identity politics isn't restricted to white men w/o college, they are just one of the demographics who subscribe to it most.

High school educated white women and college educated white men moved to the left. Lots of college educated white men feel their status is under threat, as do a lot of high school educated white women.

Lots of high school educated white women get their news from fox and brietbart.

The education gap among white men is now 50 points towards the dems, It has narrowed to 27 points among white women. It was 34 points for both genders in 2016. The education gap grew among white men and shrank among white women.
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Old 09-11-2019, 02:18 AM
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There are college grads driving trucks; there are college grads who are unemployed. The strong correlation is with education (or something education is a proxy for), NOT with income or occupation. Contrary to what you might expect, the D-R split is about the same at different income levels.

And I doubt if the key difference with the college degree is recollections from an economics class. I'll guess that it's more about mental outlook or mode of cognition. (But I will not try to develop this argument further in this thread.)

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Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
I'd guess that it's because the conditions that led them to vote for Trump in 2016 are still in place and haven't changed.
Many who usually stayed home on election day came out to vote for Trump enthusiastically. The same thing would have happened in 2008. It wasn't economic conditions that motivated these new voters; it was their own emotional or cognitional character.

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But aren't high school educated women also prone to these forms of identity politics?
It's well known that women tend to have very different characters of emotion and cognition and even brain physiology from men.

With the increasing prevalence of vote-by-mail and thus the loss of ballot secrecy, many wives are under pressure to vote as their husbands vote (or vice versa). Have there been any efforts to quantify that effect?
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Old 09-11-2019, 03:05 AM
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But aren't high school educated women also prone to these forms of identity politics? Identity politics isn't restricted to white men w/o college, they are just one of the demographics who subscribe to it most.
White men aren't worried about their crotch being grabbed, white women are.

Yes, that's a bit crude of a way to put it, but the Trump administration and Republican party have restricted abortion, access to women's health services, made medical coverage more difficult for lower income women, quite a few Republican types are the "keep women in the kitchen barefoot and pregnant" type, Trump is disrespectful to women, especially women who disagree with him, and so on. These things matter more to women (of any color or income) than to white men without college.
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Old 09-11-2019, 06:37 AM
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Perhaps surprisingly, views on abortion (at least at the big-picture level that shows up in elections) don't vary much by sex.
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Old 09-11-2019, 07:40 AM
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I think those that went to college had more experience with people from diverse backgrounds, both at college and in the white collar workplace. More familiarity translates to less fear and less hatred, so the Republican incitements of racial hatred don't resonate as well with the college educated.
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Old 09-11-2019, 08:05 AM
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The NC election results reinforce that Trumpism continues to resonate with a rural base and is losing more and more elsewhere. The bit beyond that in this poll is the non-college white women. Are they less overweighted to rural?
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Old 09-11-2019, 08:55 AM
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If there is one group that Trump's rhetoric panders to, one group that he considers his base, non-college educate white men is it.

Meanwhile there is no Democratic nominee trying to reach them, offering them something else, a different path.
Can you elaborate on this? Multiple Democratic candidates are talking about issues that would improve the lives of working class people without higher degrees. Modernizing the minimum wage and reforming healthcare are examples.

Trump panders to non-college educated white men by pitting them against minorities, immigrants, and overeducated "elites". He also promises them pipe dreams like bringing back coal. You're right that no Dems are trying to reach them using these particular strategies, but that doesn't mean they aren't trying to reach them at all, come on.
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Old 09-11-2019, 09:17 AM
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Armchair psychology: Men are more stubborn than women when it comes to admitting they're wrong. Men who voted for Trump in 2016 are more likely to stand by (and repeat) that decision, while many women may have decided they've had enough of the buffoon.
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Old 09-11-2019, 09:23 AM
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But aren't high school educated women also prone to these forms of identity politics? Identity politics isn't restricted to white men w/o college, they are just one of the demographics who subscribe to it most.

High school educated white women and college educated white men moved to the left. Lots of college educated white men feel their status is under threat, as do a lot of high school educated white women.

Lots of high school educated white women get their news from fox and brietbart.

The education gap among white men is now 50 points towards the dems, It has narrowed to 27 points among white women. It was 34 points for both genders in 2016. The education gap grew among white men and shrank among white women.

I'm not sure what drives the change with the college-educated white men and women, other than that college education tends to make people shift left (or be more amenable to being persuaded left) and women have more reason to vote D than R in general.

But with the non-college-educated white men, it's what DSeid said: There's no viable alternative candidate for them. No serious Republican primary challenger has emerged. And which Democrat would align more closely with their views than Trump? Even the most moderate D in the race, Biden, is still further from their views than Trump.
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Old 09-11-2019, 10:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kent Clark View Post
White men without college degrees are more afraid of losing what they already have than anything else.

Trump plays to that. It's that simple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
I agree identity politics plays a role.
WTF?
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Old 09-11-2019, 10:05 AM
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.

But with the non-college-educated white men, it's what DSeid said: There's no viable alternative candidate for them.
This only makes sense if non-college educated white men are uniquely and inherently unable to see that Trump is bad for them. What about Biden or Sanders makes them less "viable" to them than Trump?
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Old 09-11-2019, 10:07 AM
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This only makes sense if non-college educated white men are uniquely and inherently unable to see that Trump is bad for them.
This begs the question. How do you know Trump is bad for non-college-educated white men, or why should or would non-college-educated white men (NCEWM, I think we need an acronymn by this point,) feel that he is?
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Old 09-11-2019, 10:20 AM
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This begs the question. How do you know Trump is bad for non-college-educated white men, or why should or would non-college-educated white men (NCEWM, I think we need an acronymn by this point,) feel that he is?
The same way I know he's bad for the country as a whole?

But specific to NCEWM (thanks for the idea), you'd think they would be concerned about the increase in manufacturing job layoffs, which certainly isn't being helped by our current trade war.

A better question is how has Trump been good for NCEWM?
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Old 09-11-2019, 10:22 AM
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A better question is how has Trump been good for NCEWM?
He's been good for people who place a high value on angering liberals and hurting immigrants and migrants. I think we're learning that a significant number of white people in America value these things very, very highly.
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Old 09-11-2019, 10:36 AM
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The same way I know he's bad for the country as a whole?

But specific to NCEWM (thanks for the idea), you'd think they would be concerned about the increase in manufacturing job layoffs, which certainly isn't being helped by our current trade war.

A better question is how has Trump been good for NCEWM?
The layoffs do sound like something that NCEWM shouldn't be happy about. But there are other, less tangible factors that make NCEWM go for Trump. Identity politics, an opposition to feminism, opposition to Islam, dislike of illegal immigration, cultural resentment, etc. etc.

It seems that one big assumption of many Democrats (not you, necessarily, but many D's) is that voters are only motivated by facts and practical things, and not emotions. Many Democrats were baffled as to why Trump won ("How come? Hillary has far more experience, knowledge and competence...") or why rural Americans "vote against their own interests." They're only looking at practical things and not at the psychological factors; humans aren't robots. A NCEWM may very well say, "Trump might not be good for my job or income right now, but I dislike the liberals/SJWs/feminists/LGBT/coastal elites/Hollywood/MSM so much that I'm willing to screw myself over a little bit if they get screwed over more." Feelings play a huge deal in politics.
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:25 AM
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A NCEWM may very well say, "Trump might not be good for my job or income right now, but I dislike the liberals/SJWs/feminists/LGBT/coastal elites/Hollywood/MSM so much that I'm willing to screw myself over a little bit if they get screwed over more." Feelings play a huge deal in politics.
All the progressives I know understand perfectly well that this thinking influences Trump voters.

The part in bold is kind of sad, right? What do we do about that? If Trump is popular among NCEWM because he's the only candidate that advocates hurting liberals/SJWs/feminists/LGBT etc,, I'm not seeing a viable outreach solution for them.
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:33 AM
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All the progressives I know understand perfectly well that this thinking influences Trump voters.

The part in bold is kind of sad, right? What do we do about that? If Trump is popular among NCEWM because he's the only candidate that advocates hurting liberals/SJWs/feminists/LGBT etc,, I'm not seeing a viable outreach solution for them.
I don't think there is any "viable outreach solution" for them. The best we can do is say "we have these plans that will tangibly improve your life and the lives of those you care about", and hope that they eventually get over their grievances against liberals/minorities/migrants/etc. I don't think there's much politicians can do about that -- some people just get over that kind of nonsense, and some people don't.
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:51 AM
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All the progressives I know understand perfectly well that this thinking influences Trump voters.

The part in bold is kind of sad, right? What do we do about that? If Trump is popular among NCEWM because he's the only candidate that advocates hurting liberals/SJWs/feminists/LGBT etc,, I'm not seeing a viable outreach solution for them.
The only thing I can suggest is toning down the cultural-war stuff. I don't think voters pay all that much attention to economic and jobs stuff any more these days. Nowadays, it's all about social stuff and how people feel. It doesn't matter how much $$$ is being pumped in or out of the economy, if one side - be it NCEWM, gays, lesbians, feminists, atheists, Muslims, Christians, etc. - feels that one political party side is giving them the middle finger, they'll give it right back.
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:57 AM
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The only thing I can suggest is toning down the cultural-war stuff. I don't think voters pay all that much attention to economic and jobs stuff any more these days. Nowadays, it's all about social stuff and how people feel. It doesn't matter how much $$$ is being pumped in or out of the economy, if one side - be it NCEWM, gays, lesbians, feminists, atheists, Muslims, Christians, etc. - feels that one political party side is giving them the middle finger, they'll give it right back.
That's mostly based on Fox News and other crap infotainment sources. In reality, most Democratic politicians and policies are focused on the economy, foreign policy, etc., and relatively little is focused on social issues. There's nothing the Democrats or liberals in general can do about the right wing infotainment sphere.

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Old 09-11-2019, 12:08 PM
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The only thing I can suggest is toning down the cultural-war stuff. I don't think voters pay all that much attention to economic and jobs stuff any more these days.
The irony here is that the only ones waging "cultural war" are the ones that are willing to prioritize identity politics over their own festering economic situation.
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Old 09-11-2019, 12:27 PM
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Armchair psychology: Men are more stubborn than women when it comes to admitting they're wrong. Men who voted for Trump in 2016 are more likely to stand by (and repeat) that decision, while many women may have decided they've had enough of the buffoon.
Honestly, I think this is a huge reason.

Completely anecdotal: I have a few conservative female friends. One immediately offered a public mea culpa for voting for Trump after his first attempt at the Muslim Travel Ban. Many others came around more slowly... but surely.

There is an intense level of stubborness in the men I know who voted for Trump. Their own ego prevents them from accepting they were wrong. I hope this changes. I hope their public bravado in defending Trump will mask their personal mea culpa in the privacy of the voting booth. But who knows.
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Old 09-11-2019, 01:30 PM
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Can you elaborate on this? Multiple Democratic candidates are talking about issues that would improve the lives of working class people without higher degrees. Modernizing the minimum wage and reforming healthcare are examples. ...

... but that doesn't mean they aren't trying to reach them at all, come on.
Sure, happy to elaborate.

They have not yet been trying to sell the idea that those policies would improve THEIR lives. Not as any sort of emphasis.

At this point they are aiming their messaging elsewhere and packaging it with those targets in mind.

The ideas CAN be ones that sell to NCEWMs in the general if an effort is made to do so.
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Old 09-11-2019, 01:59 PM
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Honestly, I think this is a huge reason.

Completely anecdotal: I have a few conservative female friends. One immediately offered a public mea culpa for voting for Trump after his first attempt at the Muslim Travel Ban. Many others came around more slowly... but surely.

There is an intense level of stubborness in the men I know who voted for Trump. Their own ego prevents them from accepting they were wrong. I hope this changes. I hope their public bravado in defending Trump will mask their personal mea culpa in the privacy of the voting booth. But who knows.
FWIW, my one close female friend who supported Trump is still all in for him. I don't want to make it sound like I think only men can be stubborn.
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Old 09-11-2019, 03:04 PM
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A lot of this demographic could not care less if the Democrats would improve their lives, they just don't want to improve the lives of "those others", be they Muslims, blacks, Hispanics, etc. They'd give up all of their government goodies in a heartbeat if it would just cause pain to those that they detest.
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Old 09-11-2019, 03:16 PM
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For most Trump voters, (not just NCEWM,) the issues that they cared about which made them pull the lever for Trump are still there, perhaps even more strengthened.

Abortion? Yes, they opposed abortion, and Trump has been more pro-life than any D ever will be.

Judges? Trump got Kavanaugh and Gorsuch onto SCOTUS, and numerous conservative judges onto the district and circuit courts.

"Does he speak for us?" Yes, Trump "speaks for" these voters more than any D ever would. No other candidate in the upcoming election does the Blue Lives Matter, it's-okay-to-be-white, All Lives Matter, don't-kneel-during-the-anthem, America-is-headed-the-way-of-the-Roman-Empire talk more than Trump.

Etc. etc.

You can't name a single issue on which one of the Democratic nominees does things better for Trump voters than Trump.

If a Republican primary challenger were to unseat Trump, then these issues could move them to vote for the R, but that is as unlikely as Appalachian State beating Michigan a 2nd time.
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Old 09-11-2019, 03:18 PM
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For most Trump voters, (not just NCEWM,) the issues that they cared about which made them pull the lever for Trump are still there, perhaps even more strengthened.

Abortion? Yes, they opposed abortion, and Trump has been more pro-life than any D ever will be.

Judges? Trump got Kavanaugh and Gorsuch onto SCOTUS, and numerous conservative judges onto the district and circuit courts.

"Does he speak for us?" Yes, Trump "speaks for" these voters more than any D ever would. No other candidate in the upcoming election does the Blue Lives Matter, it's-okay-to-be-white, All Lives Matter, don't-kneel-during-the-anthem, America-is-headed-the-way-of-the-Roman-Empire talk more than Trump.

Etc. etc.

You can't name a single issue on which one of the Democratic nominees does things better for Trump voters than Trump.

If a Republican primary challenger were to unseat Trump, then these issues could move them to vote for the R, but that is as unlikely as Appalachian State beating Michigan a 2nd time.
What's your point? Just to reiterate how ignorant and horrible these Trump supporters are?
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Old 09-11-2019, 03:33 PM
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Sure, happy to elaborate.

They have not yet been trying to sell the idea that those policies would improve THEIR lives. Not as any sort of emphasis.
What would that look like in practice? Are you saying these people need a politician to tell them that non-college educated white men, stand to benefit higher paying jobs, affordable healthcare, and affordable college? And if someone doesn't explicitly emphasize this point to them, then they won't get it?

For some reason, other groups can make this inference without the hand holding. For instance, you don't see politicians explicitly saying that being able to go to the doctor without incurring bankruptcy will help black women. But somehow black women can figure that out themselves. What is it about NCEWM precludes them from doing this?
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Old 09-11-2019, 04:00 PM
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What would that look like in practice? Are you saying these people need a politician to tell them that non-college educated white men, stand to benefit higher paying jobs, affordable healthcare, and affordable college? And if someone doesn't explicitly emphasize this point to them, then they won't get it?

For some reason, other groups can make this inference without the hand holding. For instance, you don't see politicians explicitly saying that being able to go to the doctor without incurring bankruptcy will help black women. But somehow black women can figure that out themselves. What is it about NCEWM precludes them from doing this?

I'm sure NCEWM understand it as well as anyone else. But it ranks lower on their list of priorities. It probably works like a mental-points system:

A Democratic politician like Biden, Warren or Bernie promises low (or free) tuition, cheaper healthcare, jobs, etc. In the minds of NCEWM, maybe each of those things gets "1 mental point." So now the Democrat gets 5 mental points in the mind of a NCEWM. But then this voter also knows that the Democrat stands for things that he dislikes, such as Black Lives Matter, amnesty for illegal immigrants, LGBT, multiple genders, reparations, Planned Parenthood, gun control, etc. Each of those things deducts one mental point. So the Democrat might have 15 points deducted, and now stands at minus-10 in the mind of this NCEWM voter.

Meanwhile, Trump come along, and he also promises jobs, infrastructure, revival of Rust Belt (note that Trump can't deliver on most of these promises, but to the ears of many voters, a bad promise is as good as a good promise), which gets Trump a few mental points. And Trump also supports building the wall, ejecting illegal immigrants, says that there are only two genders, says that marriage should be between men and women only, opposes Black Lives Matter, wants athletes to stand during the anthem, and overall triggers the libs. And now Trump stands at positive-10 or even positive-20 in the eyes of this NCEWM voter.

So when a minus-10 Democrat goes up against a positive-10 or positive-20 Trump, there's no reason for this NCEWM to not pull the lever for Trump.
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Old 09-11-2019, 06:21 PM
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What would that look like in practice? Are you saying these people need a politician to tell them that non-college educated white men, stand to benefit higher paying jobs, affordable healthcare, and affordable college? ...
A political agenda is a product. Voters are consumers of the product.

A laundry detergent doesn’t sell well just because it gets clothes clean. It is packaged and marketed with target audiences in mind. In ways that speak the language of those targets.

Maybe consumers should ignore marketing. But they don’t.

An agenda is no different.

Marketing that includes NCEWMs as a target speaks specifically to them. It identifies how Trump and increasing wealth inequality is screwing them. It use vignettes that include them. It assures them that their specific circumstances matter. It takes pains to help them feel part of us and not a them.

In fact some D candidates are not doing so bad at honing that sort of packaging, but right now it’s playing only in Iowa and New Hampshire.

I have hope.
  #35  
Old 09-11-2019, 06:34 PM
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I think those that went to college had more experience with people from diverse backgrounds, both at college and in the white collar workplace. More familiarity translates to less fear and less hatred, so the Republican incitements of racial hatred don't resonate as well with the college educated.
I have read that when you control for various forms of bigotry and authoritarianism, the education gap among whites pretty much disappears. Control for hostility towards muslims, blacks, immigrants, women, etc and the education gap mostly goes away.

So yeah I think that is accurate. The GOP appeals to racism and authoritarianism are driving away college educated whites but appealing to high school educated whites.
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  #36  
Old 09-11-2019, 06:40 PM
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Armchair psychology: Men are more stubborn than women when it comes to admitting they're wrong. Men who voted for Trump in 2016 are more likely to stand by (and repeat) that decision, while many women may have decided they've had enough of the buffoon.
Possibly, but college educated white men are moving away from Trump while high school educated white men are not.

Thats my problem with a lot of these explanations. They don't identify what is different about high school educated white men.

People can say 'men in general do XYZ' which is a fair explanation but why does it only apply to high school educated men and not college educated men?

When people say 'its identity politics', why are high school educated women (who supported Trump by a 30 point margin in 2016) now moving away from him? They engage in identity politics too. So do college educated whites (just not as much). Of the 4 demographic groups discussed in OP I'm sure all 4 engage in identity politics, but 3 are moving away from Trump and 1 isn't.

If people say its because women are victims of sexual abuse, why didn't that stop them from voting for Trump in 2016? And why are college educated white men moving away from Trump if it is about sexual abuse?
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  #37  
Old 09-11-2019, 06:44 PM
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I don't think there is any "viable outreach solution" for them. The best we can do is say "we have these plans that will tangibly improve your life and the lives of those you care about", and hope that they eventually get over their grievances against liberals/minorities/migrants/etc. I don't think there's much politicians can do about that -- some people just get over that kind of nonsense, and some people don't.
Labor unions tend to move high school educated whites to the left by a big margin. I can't find the article, but it was written after 2004 and discussed the deficiency democrats have with rural, high school educated white men.

That demographic supported the GOP about 2-1 in 2004, unless they were in a labor union. Then their allegiance shifted and they were closer to 60-40 for the democrats. So getting rural, white, high school educated christian men to join labor unions is an effective outreach program that works.

I think most white men realize neither party is really looking out for their economic interests, so on that front it doesn't matter who you vote for. No matter if you vote GOP or democrat we still have low paying service jobs, outsourcing, mass automation, etc. Yeah democrats are better, but the fundamental and structural economic problems persist with both parties.
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Last edited by Wesley Clark; 09-11-2019 at 06:46 PM.
  #38  
Old 09-11-2019, 06:59 PM
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Possibly, but college educated white men are moving away from Trump while high school educated white men are not.

Thats my problem with a lot of these explanations. They don't identify what is different about high school educated white men.

People can say 'men in general do XYZ' which is a fair explanation but why does it only apply to high school educated men and not college educated men?
I"m going to go out on a limb here, and guess that it's the education part. Men go to college because they are:

- Smart enough to get in, and
- Motivated enough to apply, because
- They realize that they are partly responsible for their own future.

This leaves the majority of NON-college educated men (not all, but most) as:

- Not smart, and/or
- Not motivated, and/or
- Do not realize that the world does not owe them a living.

These are the Trump demographic. As a bonus, they were probably pissed off that a black man was in the white house for 8 years, and are likely misogynistic to boot.

You can't reach them with logic, or policy or anything that requires them to use anything other than their brain stem to make a decision. It just won't work. Their only explanation for their failure to get ahead in life is to find someone else to blame. Trump helps them find someone to blame.

They form the classic type of Trump supporter; Someone who would be happy to live in a cardboard box and eat a cooked rat on a stick, as long as the black family down the street has a smaller box, and their rat is uncooked.
  #39  
Old 09-11-2019, 07:50 PM
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Trump is a stupid and/or poorly educated person's idea of what a successful businessman looks like. He is also a stupid and/or poorly educated person's idea of what a good President looks like.

Is it any wonder that those who are stupid and/or poorly educated, and who happen to fall into Trump's preferred racial group support him?

FWIW, I work in an environment with a lot of blue-collar workers, and virtually all of the white men without college degrees appear to be Trump supporters. Most of them do not attempt to hide it. One lamented to me that his daughter (who just finished her Master's degree) is a "Trump-hater," apparently expecting me to commiserate with him. I also live in a rural town in which the majority of the population voted for Trump. I've had a very hard time since the election working and living with these people. It's like a form of mass hysteria. I don't know if they're deluded or what it is.

We just had a primary in Town yesterday, and one of the incumbent Selectmen who has honorably served the Town for decades failed to make it onto the ballot for the general election because he had the temerity to criticize Trump in a tweet a few months ago (in response to Trump's racist tweets about the four Congresswomen). It's like watching a cult persecute anyone who questions the leader.
  #40  
Old 09-11-2019, 08:25 PM
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It's like watching a cult persecute anyone who questions the leader.
That's because it is. Or something like that anyway.

"Right-wing authoritarians are people who have a high degree of willingness to submit to authorities they perceive as established and legitimate, who adhere to societal conventions and norms and who are hostile and punitive in their attitudes towards people who do not adhere to them.They value uniformity and are in favour of using group authority, including coercion, to achieve it."
  #41  
Old 09-11-2019, 08:35 PM
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This only makes sense if non-college educated white men are uniquely and inherently unable to see that Trump is bad for them. What about Biden or Sanders makes them less "viable" to them than Trump?
Tribal feeling. Their tribe has been voting Pub ever since the Southern Strategy worked its mischief, and now it has the force of habit.
  #42  
Old 09-11-2019, 08:38 PM
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Also, even if they benefit from activist government spending themselves, it galls them to see some of the money going to help the Wrong People, which it would under Biden or Sanders.
  #43  
Old 09-11-2019, 08:47 PM
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Trump is a stupid and/or poorly educated person's idea of what a successful businessman looks like. He is also a stupid and/or poorly educated person's idea of what a good President looks like.

Is it any wonder that those who are stupid and/or poorly educated, and who happen to fall into Trump's preferred racial group support him?

FWIW, I work in an environment with a lot of blue-collar workers, and virtually all of the white men without college degrees appear to be Trump supporters. Most of them do not attempt to hide it. One lamented to me that his daughter (who just finished her Master's degree) is a "Trump-hater," apparently expecting me to commiserate with him. I also live in a rural town in which the majority of the population voted for Trump. I've had a very hard time since the election working and living with these people. It's like a form of mass hysteria. I don't know if they're deluded or what it is.

We just had a primary in Town yesterday, and one of the incumbent Selectmen who has honorably served the Town for decades failed to make it onto the ballot for the general election because he had the temerity to criticize Trump in a tweet a few months ago (in response to Trump's racist tweets about the four Congresswomen). It's like watching a cult persecute anyone who questions the leader.
I've noticed the cult attitude too. My assumption is Trump is their great/last white hope to maintain white supremacy and maintain the fleeting status of being a native born, white christian male. I think everything else (morality, legality, competence, etc) goes out the window when people's cultural identity is under threat. The one thing I can't figure out is how orwellian the Trump cult is. Anyone who pays even the slightest bit of attention can tell Trump is dangerously incompetent, but these people think he really is a stable genius. It'd be like if huge sections of America woke up one morning and decided the sky was green and the sun was black.

White women engage in identity politics too, but I'm guessing for them it'll never be as 'pure' as it is for white men because women know they are secondary to men in identity politics circles. A white christian woman who was born in America can look her nose down on blacks, latinos, immigrants, muslims, atheists, gays, etc. but deep inside she knows people with those same attitudes consider women inferior to men.

Maybe that has something to do with it. Maybe identity politics plays a role with women, but its not as strong since they know they are at best going to be second fiddle in an identity politics ethnostate whereas the white men still are invested in Trump's version of America where white christian men are labeled the best, most authentic demographic in the country.

ie maybe college educated whites and non college white women subscribe to white identity politics, but they half ass it while non college white men subscribe whole heartily.
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  #44  
Old 09-11-2019, 08:55 PM
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Also, even if they benefit from activist government spending themselves, it galls them to see some of the money going to help the Wrong People, which it would under Biden or Sanders.
Yup.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/natio...020-story.html

Things like that are why when social security was started, it was designed to exclude black people (by not counting domestic and agricultural workers). God forbid black people benefit from the social welfare state.

Supposedly the democrats tried to pass UHC in the 40s and 50s but southern democrats wouldn't support it since it would lead to health care for black people and integrated hospitals.
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  #45  
Old 09-11-2019, 09:09 PM
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Re several of the last hypotheses -

Why are these specific to NCEWM and not for NCEWW?

And why did some meaningful fraction of these voters vote for Obama if those items are their primary motivations?

My guess - of all demographics NCEWM are decreasing in the social pecking order relative to other groups the most. They are less and less often the sole or even major breadwinner in the household.They have often dropped from middle to lower middle and lower middle to lower class socioeconomically both across generations and within their own working lifetimes. More than NCEWW have, who may not be rising but aren't dropping as much lower. Many NCEWM are moving into what they previously considered women's jobs ... and the impact on those with sexist mindsets is not surprising.

That drop in status and the lack a real path back up is a real problem for them. A higher minimum wage, and affordable college are not going to solve that issue for them. So without some specific items addressed to them they need to pull someone else down below them.

They are the easiest sell for resentment politics ... and the sell is easiest yet when the there is no much work being done by others to sell them on a different message product.

I want to be clear: I do not think that a good marketing campaign that includes them as a target demographic will win a majority of them; I do think it can move some significant number of them. Obama offered that message and won a fair number.
  #46  
Old 09-12-2019, 09:24 AM
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Possibly, but college educated white men are moving away from Trump while high school educated white men are not.

Thats my problem with a lot of these explanations. They don't identify what is different about high school educated white men.

People can say 'men in general do XYZ' which is a fair explanation but why does it only apply to high school educated men and not college educated men?
Again, just a WAG, but maybe college educated men voted for Trump for "standard conservative" reasons -- limited government, fiscal responsibility, conservative justices, etc. -- but are smart enough to see that the man isn't delivering (except for the justices) and is in fact a complete disaster. Whereas NCEWM voted for him out of bigotry and are thus perfectly happy with his performance.

Combine that with the male stubbornness I mentioned in my earlier post, and you have the one demographic where Trump still has high approval.

I realize these are gross generalizations, but we're talking about millions of people per percentage point.
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  #47  
Old 09-12-2019, 09:40 AM
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Again, just a WAG, but maybe college educated men voted for Trump for "standard conservative" reasons -- limited government, fiscal responsibility, conservative justices, etc. -- but are smart enough to see that the man isn't delivering (except for the justices) and is in fact a complete disaster.
They were the ones expecting “the grownups” to take over, Trump to pull himself together once he realized the seriousness of the stakes, and the normal politicians to be a brake on excesses.

However... temper any hope about this: this group will be susceptible to rationalize that the opponent’s platform is socialistic so they are left with no choice but Trump.
  #48  
Old 09-12-2019, 09:51 AM
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They were the ones expecting “the grownups” to take over, Trump to pull himself together once he realized the seriousness of the stakes, and the normal politicians to be a brake on excesses.

However... temper any hope about this: this group will be susceptible to rationalize that the opponent’s platform is socialistic so they are left with no choice but Trump.
Hope tempered. But if the numbers cited in the OP are a reliable indicator, a few percentage points of this crowd may move blue, and that's all we need.
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Old 09-12-2019, 10:30 AM
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Also though just one poll of "generic Democrat v Trump" and not even the actual cross tabs ... which for the life of me I can't find.

Several grains of salt are warranted.

I can believe that Trumpism's hostile sexism plays to his supporters among NCEWM and drives away some NCEWW, but this one poll sans details is only suggestive that it has happened.
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