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Old 05-21-2017, 11:45 AM
Exapno Mapcase is offline
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Texas will turn blue says state GOP chair


I've been arguing for years that the demographics of the country favor the Democrats. They have large majorities of every growing population slice, while Republicans base their majorities on the aged, the less-educated, the rural counties, and the whitest of whitey whites, all of which are shrinking relatively to the population as a whole.

Gerrymandering has helped states carve district that allow hugely disproportional numbers of wins compared to percent of voters going Republican. That's not the only reason for Republican success. They have worked hard and spent lots of money to get people elected from the lowest offices on up. They're also fortunate that the base they reply on votes in greater percentages - doubly so in non-presidential elections - than the Democratic base demographics.

This can't last. The party seems to be at its peak and must inevitably decline. And now I find that Tom Melcher, the recently resigned and now free to speak the truth Texas GOP chair, sees the future in the same way.
Quote:
"As the demographics continue to change, our state will soon have a majority-minority voting age population. If we do not continue to make efforts to engage in the diverse communities across Texas, our state will turn blue," Mechler wrote in his letter of resignation. "This is no longer just a possibility, it is an inevitable reality if we fail to act."
Who the next chair will be might determine whether the state party can become more inclusive. Given the way the party has acted in its era of dominance, I'd say change is impossible.
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Old 05-21-2017, 11:54 AM
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The New Yorker interviewed Ted Cruz back in 2012:

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“If Republicans do not do better in the Hispanic community,” he said, “in a few short years Republicans will no longer be the majority party in our state.” He ticked off some statistics: in 2004, George W. Bush won forty-four per cent of the Hispanic vote nationally; in 2008, John McCain won just thirty-one per cent. On Tuesday, Romney fared even worse.

“In not too many years, Texas could switch from being all Republican to all Democrat,” he said. “If that happens, no Republican will ever again win the White House. New York and California are for the foreseeable future unalterably Democrat. If Texas turns bright blue, the Electoral College math is simple. We won’t be talking about Ohio, we won’t be talking about Florida or Virginia, because it won’t matter. If Texas is bright blue, you can’t get to two-seventy electoral votes. The Republican Party would cease to exist. We would become like the Whig Party. Our kids and grandkids would study how this used to be a national political party. ‘They had Conventions, they nominated Presidential candidates. They don’t exist anymore.’ “
Since then, Cruz hasn't notably been trying to court the Tejano vote. Nor have our state's Governor or Lt Governor. I'm not going to hold my breath--but all Texas Democrats need to get serious about voting. If anything, the national & state level Republicans have been doing their best to demonstrate why....
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Old 05-21-2017, 12:16 PM
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Hopefully. Yet if the Democrats move further to the right to gain acceptability -- as with the Blair Project with the British Labour party, and endless calls now to avoid Corbyn's 1970s unelectability --- the outcome may not be that different...
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Old 05-21-2017, 03:20 PM
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In 2016, whites were only 57% of Texas voters.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/TX

57% white
24% latino
11% black
5% asian
3% other

So they are getting close to a <50% white electorate. The general population in texas is already majority-minority, but the electorate is whiter than the general public (In the US as a whole, I think white people are about 60% of the country but they were 71% of voters).

If there is a democratic wave in 2020, and whites are down to 55% of the electorate by then, then maybe Texas becomes a purple state. But it won't become blue until 2028 or so as a guess.
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Old 05-21-2017, 03:38 PM
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One thing to keep in mind is that Latinos aren't as monolithically Democrat as blacks are. A LOT of middle income or higher Latinos are often more conservative than you might think. And Asians tend to be fairly well split as well.

I don't know that the state is inevitably going to become a Democrat stronghold anytime soon, but there's no doubt in my mind that it'll become a battleground state in the near future.
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Old 05-21-2017, 04:14 PM
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OTOH, I can read that statement as typical fundraising/party-whip scaremongering as much as an acknowledgement of a new reality.

But I prefer the latter.
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Old 05-21-2017, 06:23 PM
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One thing to keep in mind is that Latinos aren't as monolithically Democrat as blacks are. A LOT of middle income or higher Latinos are often more conservative than you might think. And Asians tend to be fairly well split as well.

I don't know that the state is inevitably going to become a Democrat stronghold anytime soon, but there's no doubt in my mind that it'll become a battleground state in the near future.
Latinos have historically been about 2:1 D:R, sometimes going as high as 3:1 D:R depending on how far to the right the GOP has moved. So they aren't as monolithic as blacks but they are a pretty strong democratic group.

Asians are roughly the same, going 2-3 democrat votes for every 1 republican vote in general.

Of course if the GOP makes outreaches, those numbers will shrink.
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Old 05-21-2017, 10:28 PM
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Sure, Latinos could be Republican voters. Except the Republican party can't stop itself from pissing all over them. Electing Trump certainly didn't help with the Latino outreach, did it?
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Old 05-22-2017, 12:02 AM
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Sure, Latinos could be Republican voters. Except the Republican party can't stop itself from pissing all over them. Electing Trump certainly didn't help with the Latino outreach, did it?
Trump did better with Latinos than Romney did. That is not to say that another Republican with a more moderate message wouldn't do better, but Trump wasn't exactly a disaster, either.

Last edited by John Mace; 05-22-2017 at 12:04 AM.
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Old 05-22-2017, 02:20 AM
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Trump has lots of moderate messages. He also has the ones that curl your hair. How does Mr Moderate Message hold on to the Batshit Vote?
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Old 05-22-2017, 03:26 AM
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There was a study posted on one of the threads after the Election which pointed out that the "demographic dividend" is unlikely to pan out since many second and third generation Latinos tend to consider themselves White.

And as Nate Silver pointed out, if White working class starts voting a group, then there is no combination of minority voters which can overcome that.
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Old 05-22-2017, 06:42 AM
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There was a study posted on one of the threads after the Election which pointed out that the "demographic dividend" is unlikely to pan out since many second and third generation Latinos tend to consider themselves White.

And as Nate Silver pointed out, if White working class starts voting a group, then there is no combination of minority voters which can overcome that.
Of course they consider themselves white. Those who gather demographic data have two questions. (1) Hispanic or Non-Hispanic and (2) Race. The first is either/or--you must pick one. The second allows multiple responses.

Being asked to supply proof of citizenship by a jumped-up cop playing ICE agent will probably not win over many White Tejanos to the Republican side.
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Old 05-22-2017, 06:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Bridget Burke View Post
The New Yorker interviewed Ted Cruz back in 2012:



Since then, Cruz hasn't notably been trying to court the Tejano vote. Nor have our state's Governor or Lt Governor. I'm not going to hold my breath--but all Texas Democrats need to get serious about voting. If anything, the national & state level Republicans have been doing their best to demonstrate why....
What we're going to see -- what we're already seeing -- is an aggressive and massive voter suppression effort that will be coordinated at the federal and state levels. The Republicans know that demography is not on their side, but right now, the instruments of power are, and they're going to use those with blunt force.
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Old 05-22-2017, 06:56 AM
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Alabama would turn blue before Texas. Alabama not only has fewer whites but the non-whites there are more loyal to the Democratic party.
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Old 05-22-2017, 07:12 AM
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I have become increasingly skeptical of demographic political arguments and think that they provide a false solace to Democrats that the tide will turn their way without them having to actually work on their political strategy.

The basic problem with these arguments is that they assume voting patterns will remain the same and only the demographics will change. But over the 15-20 year horizons over which demographics change significantly it's likely that voting patterns will also change and perhaps in the opposite direction. Perhaps as the Democrats become more dependent on non-white voters, working-class whites will shift more and more to the Republicans. Or perhaps the Democrats shift too far left on economic issues alienating college-educated voters. Or perhaps there are increasing tensions between black and Hispanic voters. Lots of things can happen.

The Emerging Democratic Majority argument has been around for a while now and there is not a lot of evidence it's happening. The book was written in 2002 and while it seemed to be vindicated in 2006-2008, the Democrats are back to square one now and in fact in a worse position than they were in 2000.

Or to take a specific example let's look at Florida in Presidential elections. In 2000 the Democrats lost it by the tiniest whisker. In 2012 they won it narrowly and in 2016 they lost it narrowly. Over 16 years, there is not even a hint of a major structural shift.
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Old 05-22-2017, 07:19 AM
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Well, there are structural shifts but as you said, voting habits can change, and other factors can swamp the demographic change.
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Old 05-22-2017, 07:40 PM
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For it to truly happen there needs to be:

1) continuing population shift, not just in demographics, but from rural to urban
2) diminishing of the fossil fuel industry - their money and their influence is what, IMHO, drives the GOP in TX
3) continuing isolation and scape goat-ing of latinos (and other minorities)
4) time - lets face it, a large number of racist, xenophobic, completely fox-news brainwashed old whites need to die - lets hope their children (as they usually do) moderate as each generation passes

Last edited by Yersenia Pestis; 05-22-2017 at 07:42 PM.
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Old 05-22-2017, 07:56 PM
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As opposed to those old liberals who live forever.
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Old 05-22-2017, 09:03 PM
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Latinos have historically been about 2:1 D:R, sometimes going as high as 3:1 D:R depending on how far to the right the GOP has moved. So they aren't as monolithic as blacks but they are a pretty strong democratic group.
I'd be curious to see how that relates to economic status among Latinos. In my experience with upper-middle class/college educated Latinos, they don't diverge significantly from the white mainstream (into which they're pretty well integrated, FWIW). Basically what AK84 says upthread. I don't know if they "consider themselves white", but it sure seems that they're effectively considered that by white people when they're above a certain income/social status.
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Old 05-22-2017, 10:23 PM
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Well, yeah. God loves liberals so much, he lets them stay. Wouldn't be Heaven if they didn't get to pester anybody.
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Old 05-22-2017, 10:31 PM
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The numbers have been creeping that way for a long time. No two ways about it, the Hispanic vote is a sleeping giant... and yet, the giant still shows no signs of stirring.

If Hispanic Texans voted their numbers, if they voted HALF their numbers, they'd be a force to reckon with. But they don't. At this point, I honestly don't know what it will take to get huge numbers of Hispanic voters out to the polls. And neither do the Democrats.

To use a cliche, "Hispanics are the future of Texas... and they always will be."

Last edited by astorian; 05-22-2017 at 10:31 PM.
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Old 05-22-2017, 10:40 PM
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On the other hand, by the time they find their strength they could just as easily form their own bloc/party and ditch the tired old Democrats and Republicans completely.
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Old 05-23-2017, 01:22 AM
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On the other hand, by the time they find their strength they could just as easily form their own bloc/party and ditch the tired old Democrats and Republicans completely.
Doubt it. We are a two party system. You'd need nearly 50% of the population to have a new party that can do anything. What tends to happen is that one of the two parties dies out, and then the remaining party splits.

The bigger issue for the Democrats is that Hispanics tend to lean socially conservative, relative to other minorities. So there's actual room for Repubicans to get them, if they'd actually step out and appeal to them.

And I agree that "white" doesn't mean the same thing among Hispanic people. They can see themselves as both. It's only if they become "white" without any ethnicity that they melt into the White voting group completely.

Imagine if you used white as your determiner, but ignored that someone was Jewish. That wouldn't be very predictive, either.
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Old 05-23-2017, 01:36 AM
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I Agree


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I have become increasingly skeptical of demographic political arguments and think that they provide a false solace to Democrats that the tide will turn their way without them having to actually work on their political strategy.

The basic problem with these arguments is that they assume voting patterns will remain the same and only the demographics will change. But over the 15-20 year horizons over which demographics change significantly it's likely that voting patterns will also change and perhaps in the opposite direction. Perhaps as the Democrats become more dependent on non-white voters, working-class whites will shift more and more to the Republicans. Or perhaps the Democrats shift too far left on economic issues alienating college-educated voters. Or perhaps there are increasing tensions between black and Hispanic voters. Lots of things can happen.

The Emerging Democratic Majority argument has been around for a while now and there is not a lot of evidence it's happening. The book was written in 2002 and while it seemed to be vindicated in 2006-2008, the Democrats are back to square one now and in fact in a worse position than they were in 2000.

Or to take a specific example let's look at Florida in Presidential elections. In 2000 the Democrats lost it by the tiniest whisker. In 2012 they won it narrowly and in 2016 they lost it narrowly. Over 16 years, there is not even a hint of a major structural shift.

I agree. Demographics as destiny is not a good way to make political predictions. This is further complicated by such ironies/paradoxes as wealthy states voting Blue, poorer states Red. Many middle class and upwardly mobile people of color,--to state this as broadly as possible--are aiming to join the "elite", do not want to be identify with the "great unwashed". I think it's fair that when given a choice most people aim to move up the economic ladder, not down.

This is fairly typical of human nature,--I'm not endorsing this, just commenting--and this makes predicting that Group X or Group Y is reliably anything, whether Democrat or Republican, liberal or conservative. Even when these generalizations have some truth, and I agree that they do, I think that it's always important to keep in mind that as early Greek philosopher Heraclitus said "things change", so too do people. Nothing stays the same.


John B.
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Old 05-23-2017, 03:03 AM
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Imagine if you used white as your determiner, but ignored that someone was Jewish. That wouldn't be very predictive, either.

Sure, I remember just before the election some article in Slate or Atlantic, those sort of rags, detailed the massive support for Trump amongst Jewish people --- older I think in Florida
--- strongly anti-Sanders and anti-progressive because of their sufferings in the Soviet bloc, which they identified with idealists generally; and so responded to Trump's message of Hope. And of course, there are some Jewish supporters in the Clinton wing of the Democrats, equally anti-Sanders and anti-progressive.

However it would be silly to suppose from that that Jewish people are uniformly on the Right of the American spectrum.


Nonetheless, whether it became strongly RC --- only to the Right of the present hierarchy; developed a new Constitution; or preferred latin american client politics in place of whatever it is you have now, an Hispanic bloc may be able to substitute for one of the duopoly. Or it may offer it's support to whichever panders more ( say by banning abortion ). Or it may ally with other religious or, say, libertarian business, groups to achieve goals of mutual interest.


But in the end parties die like all else --- a dozen years on and a change of party might create a President Cruz yet !
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Old 05-23-2017, 03:52 AM
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Like a bunch of other people in this thread, I disagree with the demographic argument for future Dem dominance. No, the Dems will have to get out there and do the hard work of running candidates in local and state legislature elections, and making the argument (it's not like it's a hard argument, but they still have to make it, dammit) over and over again of why they're better than the Republicans.
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Old 05-23-2017, 10:00 AM
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I think the demographic argument is valid assuming policy and attitudes of the parties remain the same. If the GOP actually does embrace minorities in a meaningful way, then that is a victory in itself. If not, then it will lose percentage points: it won't be able to gain a foothold just by regression to the mean.
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Old 05-23-2017, 10:35 AM
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Texas is an odd case. It's certainly conservative, but relations with Mexico have always been . . . nuanced, let's say. There are a fair number of GOP officeholders of Latino ancestry, and Rick Perry was publicly defending in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants back in 2012. These days you wouldn't be hearing that as much though - there's a new breed of young Tea Party conservatives taking a much harder line on immigration than the state has typically seen, and this session they've passed a pretty draconian anti-sanctuary cities bill that some are billing as a "show your papers" type law for anyone who gets detained. We'll have to see how all that shakes out after the lawsuits get resolved.

Texas Democrats for years have been waiting for the Hispanic vote to turn out, but what's been happening instead is that it just hasn't. Instead, a higher and higher proportion of white voters have been voting GOP, offsetting the increased minority votes. And for the reasons mentioned above, the Latino vote in Texas hasn't been as monolithic for the Democratic party as you see in some other states.

If the dam does break in Texas, it'll probably happen all at once with a huge surge of Latino turnout. I don't know how much it's plausible to expect it to occur soon, though. There's been no Democrat in statewide office since 1994.
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Old 05-23-2017, 10:42 AM
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Trump did better with Latinos than Romney did. That is not to say that another Republican with a more moderate message wouldn't do better, but Trump wasn't exactly a disaster, either.
So even with a candidate whose platform was making being Latino a deportable offense, the GOP still won a third of the Latino Vote? If I was a Democrat, I would be terrified.
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Old 05-23-2017, 11:41 AM
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So even with a candidate whose platform was making being Latino a deportable offense, the GOP still won a third of the Latino Vote? If I was a Democrat, I would be terrified.
I believe there is a sentiment among some immigrants that "I got here -- you're on your own." This is not unique to Hispanic immigrants -- whites do it, too. Trump has lead a whole political movement based largely on that idea.

My concern with basing our hopes on the Hispanic vote is that the Republicans have a lot to offer them, if they could just stop being so damned evil all the time. Hispanics are very much anti-abortion. They tend to be in favor of strong border enforcement (once their family is across, anyway). They're not big fans of same-sex marriage, gay rights, etc.

Republicans in Texas may figure this out (some have) and give our many Hispanics something to vote for. Texas Democrats, like myself, had best figure out how to head 'em off at the pass.
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Old 05-23-2017, 12:48 PM
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I've heard this "Texas is about to go blue" scenario for well over a decade.

If it does, it's a good 20 years down the road.
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Old 05-23-2017, 12:53 PM
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So even with a candidate whose platform was making being Latino a deportable offense, the GOP still won a third of the Latino Vote? If I was a Democrat, I would be terrified.
Just because someone is Latino doesn't mean they'll be soft on illegal immigration; in fact quite a few Hispanic legal immigrants favor a hardline stance on the issue.
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Old 05-23-2017, 05:14 PM
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The thing that bothers me about this long-standing and largely false prediction is that some Democrats sound like they want everything to turn to shit for the majority of the population so that they can grab power. That is neither moral nor an effective strategy. Texas is booming BTW. Rather than hope for its implosion, it would be a lot better if other states emulated it.

First we create a lot of suffering poor people then the Democrats can lord over them for all time. Power and Profit!

I agree with many others that two-party politics simply doesn't work that way. If either side starts losing most elections, they will just shift their platform and strategy until balance is restored again. It has happened plenty of times in the past. "Democrat" and "Republican" are exactly the same as sports team mascots. They don't mean anything. You can change the entire team and coaching strategy and just keep the same label.

Have most of you actually been to Texas? There are some liberal enclaves in the major cities but even the minorities tend to be conservative relative to the rest of the country.
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Old 05-23-2017, 10:01 PM
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The thing that bothers me about this long-standing and largely false prediction is that some Democrats sound like they want everything to turn to shit for the majority of the population so that they can grab power. That is neither moral nor an effective strategy. Texas is booming BTW. Rather than hope for its implosion, it would be a lot better if other states emulated it.

First we create a lot of suffering poor people then the Democrats can lord over them for all time. Power and Profit!

I agree with many others that two-party politics simply doesn't work that way. If either side starts losing most elections, they will just shift their platform and strategy until balance is restored again. It has happened plenty of times in the past. "Democrat" and "Republican" are exactly the same as sports team mascots. They don't mean anything. You can change the entire team and coaching strategy and just keep the same label.

Have most of you actually been to Texas? There are some liberal enclaves in the major cities but even the minorities tend to be conservative relative to the rest of the country.
Every major city in Texas is a liberal enclave. That's a pattern across the country. It's hard to get a majority to vote Republican when they are not surrounded by a sea of similar white faces. That's my point, in fact. Thank you for acknowledging it.

As for Texas' economy, it is heavily dependent on the state of the oil industry, which means that it's been undergoing a slight recovery but still has been badly damaged from low oil prices the past couple of years. IOW, Texas is not an economic paradise because of Republicans deregulating safety standards. And Texas partisans now have to shut up about California, which is - despite all conservative predictions - doing far better under Democratic leadership than Texas is.

Of course, some people have what are proclaimed to be a weird set of beliefs that human rights and sheer human dignity are critical factors in a civilized country. That should be independent of any ideological stance on economic issues but - again weirdly - doesn't work out that way.
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Old 05-24-2017, 09:57 PM
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Every major city in Texas is a liberal enclave. That's a pattern across the country. It's hard to get a majority to vote Republican when they are not surrounded by a sea of similar white faces. That's my point, in fact. Thank you for acknowledging it.
That is where you are going wrong. Texas is plenty diverse and not especially white at all. In fact, Houston is the most diverse major city in the U.S. (that includes New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles) and it is still somewhat conservative in its own way. I never understood all the Texas hate. My Texas relatives wonder why I pay a huge amount for an older 900 square foot home in the Boston area when I make a whole lot more than they do and they can afford new McMansions and everything else. Good question.

All I know is that the Dallas area is booming and it isn't mostly due to oil and gas. There are giant companies moving in like Toyota USA (relocating from California) near my parent's house and they can't build elementary schools let alone housing fast enough. California would be a success case as well because it has everything going for it but it has been chronically mismanaged so it is always dealing with disaster control and is probably financially unsustainable in the long term.

Let me put it this way, modern day Democrats make much better therapists than managers. If you want a war, pick a Republican. I say this as an Independent. My personal preference is moderate Republicans like Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker and former Governor Mitt Romney that actually realize that their real job is being a fiscally responsible leader and not a social activist. There is actual work that needs to get done and budgets that need to be reconciled. Let the Martin Luther Kings of the world handle the speeches.
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Old 05-25-2017, 01:26 AM
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Those speeches needed to be made, and to make them was to risk his life. How many managers do you know who would do that?
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Old 05-25-2017, 01:53 AM
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I have become increasingly skeptical of demographic political arguments and think that they provide a false solace to Democrats that the tide will turn their way without them having to actually work on their political strategy.

The basic problem with these arguments is that they assume voting patterns will remain the same and only the demographics will change. But over the 15-20 year horizons over which demographics change significantly it's likely that voting patterns will also change and perhaps in the opposite direction. Perhaps as the Democrats become more dependent on non-white voters, working-class whites will shift more and more to the Republicans. Or perhaps the Democrats shift too far left on economic issues alienating college-educated voters. Or perhaps there are increasing tensions between black and Hispanic voters. Lots of things can happen.

The Emerging Democratic Majority argument has been around for a while now and there is not a lot of evidence it's happening. The book was written in 2002 and while it seemed to be vindicated in 2006-2008, the Democrats are back to square one now and in fact in a worse position than they were in 2000.

Or to take a specific example let's look at Florida in Presidential elections. In 2000 the Democrats lost it by the tiniest whisker. In 2012 they won it narrowly and in 2016 they lost it narrowly. Over 16 years, there is not even a hint of a major structural shift.

I agree with this. Voting patterns do not remain constant, neither do changes all swing one way. There will be a wide variety of voting swings and counter swings over the coming years. I have long been of the opinion that as the baby boomers retire, and Government finances become squeezed, a political re-alignment will take place. I can't exactly predict how this re-alignment will emerge but it will be enough to become a game-changer in US politics.

The CBO predicts a huge upturn in the Federal deficit in the next 5 to 10 years. There is no way a hugely increased deficit doesn't have a substantial effect on taxes, spending and voting patterns.
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Old 05-25-2017, 02:58 AM
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Yeah, that's going to be huge. Some people are going to lose a lot of money. Probably most of us will lose a lot of money. Decreased benefits, higher taxes, fewer government contracts leading to job losses. The deficit crunch is no joke.
  #39  
Old 05-25-2017, 10:07 AM
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That is where you are going wrong. Texas is plenty diverse and not especially white at all. In fact, Houston is the most diverse major city in the U.S. (that includes New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles) and it is still somewhat conservative in its own way.
Amazingly, it is the fact that Texas as a whole is not especially white that leads us to the projection that it will stop being especially red. Most of the reddest Southern states have large minority populations, in fact. What's important is the dispersion of those populations and their likeliness of voting.

In Texas Hispanics are heavily concentrated along the Mexican border, with the more northern counties being overwhelmingly white. I don't believe it's mere stereotyping to say that Hispanics have historically been ruthlessly kept out of power even along the border. It's only been in recent years that Hispanics have been allowed any proportionate share of power and they still lag greatly. That gap is guaranteed to close in the future. Nor does it matter in the least that Texas liberals may be more conservative than New York or California liberals. All that matters is whether Democrats or Republicans get elected to office.

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Let me put it this way, modern day Democrats make much better therapists than managers. If you want a war, pick a Republican. I say this as an Independent. My personal preference is moderate Republicans like Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker and former Governor Mitt Romney that actually realize that their real job is being a fiscally responsible leader and not a social activist. There is actual work that needs to get done and budgets that need to be reconciled. Let the Martin Luther Kings of the world handle the speeches.
This is scarily insane as social policy. But please keep preaching it. I can think of few arguments that would get minorities politically active and marching to the polls as hearing this.
  #40  
Old 05-25-2017, 10:42 AM
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The basic problem with these arguments is that they assume voting patterns will remain the same and only the demographics will change. But over the 15-20 year horizons over which demographics change significantly it's likely that voting patterns will also change and perhaps in the opposite direction. Perhaps as the Democrats become more dependent on non-white voters, working-class whites will shift more and more to the Republicans. Or perhaps the Democrats shift too far left on economic issues alienating college-educated voters. Or perhaps there are increasing tensions between black and Hispanic voters. Lots of things can happen.
This. The argument was stupid in 2002, and that people still endorse it, after seeing the Democrats reduced to their lowest position in a century, speaks to the power of wishful thinking.

Even limiting the discussion to race, the nonsense is obvious: As the white population moves closer and closer to minority status, they will think more and more like a minority. You can make all the arguments about history you want, but the hard political reality is that people simply aren't going to accept the idea that it's okay for others to vote based on racial self-interest, but they can't do the same.

When you encourage identity politics in one race, you implicitly endorse identity politics in all races, and there is a reason Democrats' share of the white vote keeps dropping. This is a problem for them, since whites do not actually become a minority until 2040 or so, and later if immigration is reduced. (And that leaves aside the idea that "non-white" is less cohesive an identity bloc than "white.")

Last edited by furt; 05-25-2017 at 10:44 AM.
  #41  
Old 05-25-2017, 12:21 PM
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The white population votes more heavily Republican by age, as shown in the tables on this page. So do Hispanics. It's not true for African-Americans, interestingly.

The old saw about people becoming more conservative with age is not a reliable indicator of how the present 18-44 population will vote in the future. The younger voters are, the more likely they are to skew Democratic. There might be a huge shift in attitudes in the future: nobody can know.

What we do know is that the populations most likely to support Republicans are dying out. You can try betting the party on the notion that when whites become a minority they will vote out of identity politics and support Republicans. And why not? That is the current state of the Republican Party supporters. The fact that attitude overlooks is that your voting bloc is shrinking both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of a growing population. Expecting that the results will stay the same despite that reality is the true wishful thinking.

And for pete's sake. Could one of you making the counterargument please remember that this is a long-term prediction?
  #42  
Old 05-25-2017, 12:22 PM
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it's okay for others to vote based on racial self-interest, but they can't do the same.
Social justice is often presented that way by those who prefer to maintain their privileged status, but it is still a misstatement, as the many "woke" whites demonstrate. It's okay to vote for a more just and fair society for all of us, and it's okay to question the motives of those who can only understand the same level of motives that they themselves hold.
  #43  
Old 05-25-2017, 03:33 PM
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What we do know is that the populations most likely to support Republicans are dying out. You can try betting the party on the notion that when whites become a minority they will vote out of identity politics and support Republicans. And why not? That is the current state of the Republican Party supporters. The fact that attitude overlooks is that your voting bloc is shrinking both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of a growing population.
The population trends are not in dispute. The point is that even we assume if Hispanics continue to vote 2:1 Democratic, their growth in the population will be offset if the percentage of whites voting GOP also becomes 2:1. Of course the latter isn't guaranteed, but neither is the former - Bush 43 got 40% of the Hispanic vote, and there's no reason to assume that would be impossible in the future.

And there's simply no point in trying to imagine what the political landscape will look like more than 20 or 30 years out. It's pure speculation, the equivalent of people in the 1980s wondering if the US in 2017 would still be standing up to the Soviets after the Japanese had bought all our factories.
  #44  
Old 05-26-2017, 05:19 PM
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Texas teachers give ‘most likely to become a terrorist’ award to 13-year-old.

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Seventh-grader Lizeth Villanueva has been in her school’s academic honors program for two years. She gets good grades and has never been a discipline problem. ...
[She] is Salvadoran American...
I'm sure you're right, furt. It will take five generations to get Texas to reach minimal humanity. What puzzles me is why people are so proud of that.
  #45  
Old 06-06-2017, 03:19 PM
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A major caveat needs to be made here about the Latino vote. Latinos are not a block. There are big differences, for instance, between Cuban-Americans and Mexican-Americans. Cubans have been far friendlier to Republicans and that skews the overall Latino vote. Furthermore, the groups tend to live in different places.
  #46  
Old 06-07-2017, 12:28 PM
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If you wish to argue that working class whites may go 2:1 for Republicans, you need to show some sort of trend towards that happening. That's how this works. We're looking at the trends and making predictions based on where they are now.

Of course, there may be other trends that start up in the mean time. Hell, that's the point of the GOP saying this sort of thing. They're saying "we need to do something to offset this trend."

People neglect that this isn't about "my side winning." If these trends force the Republicans to court voters they previously have sold out, that's a good thing. Because, to court them, they will have to change their opinions on issues, which is what needs to happen.

Yes, there is the fear that they will double down on the bad things to get more of their core base, but that is a losing proposition in the long run, just because of their base shrinking. So hopefully they will choose otherwise.

And we can get back to actually have a decent choice in our country.
  #47  
Old 06-07-2017, 03:31 PM
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Texas teachers give ‘most likely to become a terrorist’ award to 13-year-old.


I'm sure you're right, furt. It will take five generations to get Texas to reach minimal humanity. What puzzles me is why people are so proud of that.
What puzzles me is why you think that the existence of a couple of assholes in Texas says anything about Texas or Texans in general.
  #48  
Old 06-07-2017, 03:52 PM
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The problem is that we need a western wall, not just a southern wall. Libs are flooding into Texas from California, and they're gonna vote in Texas with the same stupidity that screwed California up.

Last edited by Clothahump; 06-07-2017 at 03:53 PM.
  #49  
Old 06-07-2017, 09:33 PM
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I don't buy the demographic tide argument. If the other side can see it coming, they can prepare for it. Most movement conservatives have not in fact chosen to appeal to latino voters. That doesn't mean they'll take defeat lying down. Apparently what's important to many conservatives is to exclude, to disenfranchise, and to remove latinos; that is a doable thing. War is the continuation of politics by other means.
  #50  
Old 06-07-2017, 10:05 PM
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What puzzles me is why you think that the existence of a couple of assholes in Texas says anything about Texas or Texans in general.
Well, we know who most of them voted for...
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