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  #151  
Old 04-29-2018, 11:10 AM
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I usually find the nicknames people here give Trump to be more eye-rolling than anything else, but that one made me chuckle. And, it would be an excellent band name to boot!!
I prefer "Mango Mussolini" but to each their own.
  #152  
Old 04-29-2018, 11:31 AM
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I can't see Kim being as intelligent as Kahdafi. Not even possessing a certain low animal cunning.
  #153  
Old 04-29-2018, 08:52 PM
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Let's give the credit to the proper person here.

"The fact that when I went over there the last time for [Jong Un's] birthday, I gave him Donald Trump's books. ... I think he didn't realize who Donald Trump was at that time. I gave him the books so he could understand him," Rodman said.

"I don't want to take all the credit. I don't want to say, 'I did this, I did that,'" Rodman said of any progress in the relationship between North Korea and the United States.


https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...n-relationship

It was Dennis Rodman who made this all possible. Thank you Dennis.

*whistles*
  #154  
Old 04-29-2018, 08:59 PM
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Why did it have to be Rodman? Wouldn't Jordan have been a better diplomat? I mean, Kim could watch Space Jam to get up to speed on his golfing/basketball/saving the universe skills...
  #155  
Old 04-30-2018, 02:08 AM
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Jordan might have been a mistake. To Air is human.
  #156  
Old 04-30-2018, 04:26 AM
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Perhaps Kim is the Gorbachev of N. Korea? Like Gorby, it is possible Kim has reached the conclusion that things must change in order to stay the same. He has grown up in the system, he has consolidated his power over it and he understands it is not sustainable over the long-term (especially with escalating sanctions). Perhaps N. Korea’s nuclear weapons program was always intended to be given away for long-term regime survival vis-à-vis the West. Regardless, there can be little doubt Kim understands that to actually use a nuke would mean the end of N. Korea, and that the West is just as unlikely to use them against N. Korea. With no practical utility in terms of use or even deterrent, giving them away for what the regime wants most of all – i.e., a guarantee of survival – does not seem too illogical as to defy credibility. I don’t actually believe it, but at this early point - and notwithstanding N. Korea’s long record of broken promises (all or certainly most of which pre-date l’il Kim’s reign) – it seems to me the possibility cannot be completely discounted.
Looks like you're not alone in thinking this -- the author from 38north.Org says some of the same things in your post.

https://www.38north.org/2018/04/rcarlin042318/

I've not had the feeling that Kim's putting on an act. He's still going to be a brutal sonofabitch, but I think he genuinely wants to take North Korea in a new direction. The sanctions are crippling his country, and people can't continue to live in misery forever without the itch to fight back at some point. He knows that.

The linked article puts some of Kim's more ruthless behavior into perspective: killing off his enemies so that they don't get in his way later, and making sure everyone else around sees what happens when you cross Rocket Man. This might make it easier for him to make changes happen.

The 3 big questions (there are more but the central ones) are:

1. Can the US and North Korea agree on a definition of "denuclearization?"

2. Is the US willing to lift sanctions?

3. Can the US accept North Korea being essentially a member of the nuclear club?
  #157  
Old 04-30-2018, 08:02 AM
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The 3 big questions (there are more but the central ones) are:

1. Can the US and North Korea agree on a definition of "denuclearization?"

2. Is the US willing to lift sanctions?

3. Can the US accept North Korea being essentially a member of the nuclear club?
1. Not a snowball's chance in hell.

2. Depends on who Chump talked to last.

3. There doesn't seem to be much choice there, unless Nikki Haley can manage to pull a Colin Powell on the world.
  #158  
Old 04-30-2018, 08:35 AM
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Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize, says South Korea's Moon

"President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. What we need is only peace," Moon told a meeting of senior secretaries, according to a presidential Blue House official who briefed media.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...oon/ar-AAwxgsO

Hillary would have taken us to war. Think about that.
  #159  
Old 04-30-2018, 08:39 AM
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Hillary would have taken us to war. Think about that.
Wow, snappy point there. Maybe the most insightful critique of Clinton's foreign policy views since, "No, YOU'RE the puppet!"
  #160  
Old 04-30-2018, 08:56 AM
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Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize, says South Korea's Moon

"President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. What we need is only peace," Moon told a meeting of senior secretaries, according to a presidential Blue House official who briefed media.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...oon/ar-AAwxgsO

Hillary would have taken us to war. Think about that.
Personally, I think Dennis Rodman deserves a NPP. Dennis is smarter, a better dresser and he probably gets more ass.

Hillary wouldn't have done anything at all. No wall, no mass exodus from Washington, no peeing scandals, no porn stars, no screwing playboy models, no Putin's Princess, no refunding money to investors she defrauded. She would have been boring.
  #161  
Old 04-30-2018, 10:23 AM
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Hillary would have taken us to war. Think about that.
And we know that based on the compelling evidence of "SHE JUST WOULD HAVE NEENER NEENER BENGHAZI EMAILS VINCE FOSTER", despite her relatively busy but otherwise unremarkable tenure as Secretary of State. Morgenstern is right - Clinton wouldn't have done anything to upset the status quo, and certainly nothing so chaotic as a war. That's more the Republicans' style.

My own theory is that if Donald Trump has facilitated the peace process between the Koreas at all it has been due to the application of his own particular version of the Madman Theory, except that - unlike Nixon - Trump isn't feigning being "irrational and volatile"; he genuinely is. Kim had been attempting something similar but was smart enough to realize he was being out-crazied by someone who was perfectly willing to start a nuclear war for stupid reasons, supported by advice from other irrational warhawks.

Which would also explain why Moon is so keen to give Trump the credit - he's probably scared not to. Only half-joking there
  #162  
Old 04-30-2018, 11:03 AM
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There was a Republican congressman calling for a new Marshall Plan -- maybe the Trump Plan as he said -- to offer tons of development aid to North Korea as part of the upcoming talks.

WTF is going on with the Republican Party? Have they completely lost their collective minds? (Oh yeah, yes. Yes they did.) Clinton offered some oil and a nuclear reactor that couldn't make weapons-grade fissile material, the vast majority of which was to be paid for by Japan and South Korea, and Republicans totally lost their shit over that plan.

Trump goes apoplectic when he talks about this right-wing conspiracy theory of secret airplane flights that illegally delivered tons of cash to Iran, in exchange for them ending their nuclear program.

And now some dude in that same party wants to commit the U.S. taxpayer to rebuilding North Korea on the basis of a deal that isn't even on the table yet? Talk about crazy.
  #163  
Old 04-30-2018, 11:04 AM
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Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize, says South Korea's Moon

"President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. What we need is only peace," Moon told a meeting of senior secretaries, according to a presidential Blue House official who briefed media.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...oon/ar-AAwxgsO
Moon, like anyone else who has to deal with our president and isn't a complete fool, has ascertained that a flattered Trump is a pacified Trump. So, sure, give him the Nobel Peace Prize. Give him four or five of them. Give him toys to play with and trophies to wave around— whatever it takes to keep him distracted so other people can try to get things accomplished without him fucking it up.
  #164  
Old 04-30-2018, 11:14 AM
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That's it. In addition, he is the President and he does have all the power of the United States at his command. If being on the good side of that power means a little self-humiliation at times, well, that's what you signed up for when you went into politics, right?
  #165  
Old 04-30-2018, 01:23 PM
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Hillary would have taken us to war. Think about that.
I know nobody's asked it, but I want a cite for that one.
  #166  
Old 04-30-2018, 02:06 PM
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no screwing playboy models
I'm pretty sure you're right, but then again I haven't read every issue of the Enquirer so maybe they know something I don't.
  #167  
Old 04-30-2018, 02:29 PM
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There was a Republican congressman calling for a new Marshall Plan -- maybe the Trump Plan as he said -- to offer tons of development aid to North Korea as part of the upcoming talks.

WTF is going on with the Republican Party? Have they completely lost their collective minds? (Oh yeah, yes. Yes they did.) Clinton offered some oil and a nuclear reactor that couldn't make weapons-grade fissile material, the vast majority of which was to be paid for by Japan and South Korea, and Republicans totally lost their shit over that plan.

Trump goes apoplectic when he talks about this right-wing conspiracy theory of secret airplane flights that illegally delivered tons of cash to Iran, in exchange for them ending their nuclear program.

And now some dude in that same party wants to commit the U.S. taxpayer to rebuilding North Korea on the basis of a deal that isn't even on the table yet? Talk about crazy.
I dunno. Labor rates in China are getting pretty high these days. Did you see the latest episode of Silicon Valley on HBO? Chinese workers are begin coddled to the point where they are no longer jumping out of buildings! We need a new pool of dirt cheap labor, and NK might just be the ticket.

Last edited by John Mace; 04-30-2018 at 02:30 PM.
  #168  
Old 04-30-2018, 03:09 PM
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I know nobody's asked it, but I want a cite for that one.
Meh, you're right. If the way Hillary ran her campaign is any indication of how she would run the White House, she wouldn't have the energy to start a war what with all the briefings and such.
  #169  
Old 04-30-2018, 03:14 PM
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Meh, you're right. If the way Hillary ran her campaign is any indication of how she would run the White House, she wouldn't have the energy to start a war what with all the briefings and such.
She had pretty much the same number of rallies that Trump did, about 300. You're starting to sound like you're adopting the sexist argument about "when a man talks loud, he's assertive; when a woman talks loud, she's screeching" to the campaign stump: "when a man holds 300 rallies, he's a real go-getter; when a woman holds 300 rallies, she's low energy."

Last edited by Ravenman; 04-30-2018 at 03:15 PM.
  #170  
Old 04-30-2018, 04:18 PM
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She had pretty much the same number of rallies that Trump did, about 300. You're starting to sound like you're adopting the sexist argument about "when a man talks loud, he's assertive; when a woman talks loud, she's screeching" to the campaign stump: "when a man holds 300 rallies, he's a real go-getter; when a woman holds 300 rallies, she's low energy."
Wow, you're right! I looked up Hillary's rallies and they were roughly equal to Trump's. It just goes to show that even a zombie can be wrong.

But let me assure you that sexism had nothing to do with my assumption. My mother is an executive in high-tech. Sort of like Sarah Palin in your IT Department.
  #171  
Old 04-30-2018, 05:46 PM
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And let me be clear, I’m not saying you are sexist. I was just pointing out that when women act similar to men, some consider the man’s behavior normal and the woman’s to be a character flaw.
  #172  
Old 04-30-2018, 08:34 PM
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There was a Republican congressman calling for a new Marshall Plan -- maybe the Trump Plan as he said -- to offer tons of development aid to North Korea as part of the upcoming talks.

WTF is going on with the Republican Party? Have they completely lost their collective minds? (Oh yeah, yes. Yes they did.) Clinton offered some oil and a nuclear reactor that couldn't make weapons-grade fissile material, the vast majority of which was to be paid for by Japan and South Korea, and Republicans totally lost their shit over that plan.

Trump goes apoplectic when he talks about this right-wing conspiracy theory of secret airplane flights that illegally delivered tons of cash to Iran, in exchange for them ending their nuclear program.

And now some dude in that same party wants to commit the U.S. taxpayer to rebuilding North Korea on the basis of a deal that isn't even on the table yet? Talk about crazy.
In both cases, the 1990s and now, it's pure, naked politics. Shit, as far as Republicans are concerned, the game of foreign policy was 'game on' the moment Reagan "won" the Cold War all by himself, as though Russia (USSR) was an economic machine until Reagan bankrupted it with star wars. Since Reagan, Republicans have been committed to undermining Democrats on foreign policy, but everything they oppose is good when they do it.

Last edited by asahi; 04-30-2018 at 08:35 PM.
  #173  
Old 04-30-2018, 10:28 PM
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Meh, you're right. If the way Hillary ran her campaign is any indication of how she would run the White House, she wouldn't have the energy to start a war what with all the briefings and such.
Glad you're able to back up your claims with...ummmm...well, nothing. Seems appropriate given your post history to date.
  #174  
Old 05-01-2018, 12:18 AM
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My mother is an executive in high-tech. Sort of like Sarah Palin in your IT Department.
You mean she was promoted past her level of competence?
  #175  
Old 05-01-2018, 09:08 AM
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There was a Republican congressman calling for a new Marshall Plan -- maybe the Trump Plan as he said -- to offer tons of development aid to North Korea as part of the upcoming talks.

WTF is going on with the Republican Party? Have they completely lost their collective minds? (Oh yeah, yes. Yes they did.) Clinton offered some oil and a nuclear reactor that couldn't make weapons-grade fissile material, the vast majority of which was to be paid for by Japan and South Korea, and Republicans totally lost their shit over that plan.

Trump goes apoplectic when he talks about this right-wing conspiracy theory of secret airplane flights that illegally delivered tons of cash to Iran, in exchange for them ending their nuclear program.

And now some dude in that same party wants to commit the U.S. taxpayer to rebuilding North Korea on the basis of a deal that isn't even on the table yet? Talk about crazy.
Peace is less expensive than war.

We may end up spending 6 to7 trillion dollars on Middle East wars after everything is said and done. That doesn't account for the lost lives either. Just as a general rule, I would rather buy peace than fight for it. Reuniting the Koreas seems far more possible than bringing Iraq into civility. In a purely pragmatic sense, rebuilding North Korea may be best for everyone.

Of course, it could be a political nightmare for Republicans as Democrats will ask why we're spending so much money rebuilding a foreign country while cities run by Democrats need rebuilding.
  #176  
Old 05-01-2018, 09:48 AM
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Just as a general rule, I would rather buy peace than fight for it.
Right, but context is everything. Iran got NOTHING from the American taxpayer, but it is portrayed as a rip-off. Rebuilding North Korea -- something that South Korea has really been planning for for a long time if reunification happens -- would potentially put U.S. taxpayer on the hook for real money.

Plus, the idea of providing billions in aid to North Korea in the absence of reunification just seems... stupid. Providing sanctions relief in exchange for an end of their nuclear program? Of course! But for cold, hard cash? Terrible deal.

It's pretty clear that Trump is the worst negotiator who has ever been in DC. He couldn't close the healthcare repeal and replace deal with his own party, he got the tax bill my the measure of a gnat's ass, and has lost two straight budget negotiations to the minority party. He is terrible at this. Which means that we should be worried about what a Trump-KJU negotiation will mean. Frankly, I'd be far more optimistic if Pompeo or even Tillerson was leading the talks.
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You mean she was promoted past her level of competence?
This is very funny.

Last edited by Ravenman; 05-01-2018 at 09:48 AM.
  #177  
Old 05-02-2018, 04:51 PM
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North Korea reportedly hands Trump another big win by releasing US prisoners

"North Korea has released three US citizens detained there, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, citing a South Korean activist who campaigns for the release of detainees.

The releases would meet some of the US's demands for North Korea to demonstrate sincerity before a historic meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un — something that John Bolton, Trump's hawkish national security adviser, reiterated during an interview on Fox News on Sunday."

http://www.businessinsider.com/north...isoners-2018-5
  #178  
Old 05-02-2018, 05:11 PM
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North Korea reportedly hands Trump another big win by releasing US prisoners

"North Korea has released three US citizens detained there, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, citing a South Korean activist who campaigns for the release of detainees.

The releases would meet some of the US's demands for North Korea to demonstrate sincerity before a historic meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un — something that John Bolton, Trump's hawkish national security adviser, reiterated during an interview on Fox News on Sunday."

http://www.businessinsider.com/north...isoners-2018-5
Not so fast:

Quote:
The three citizens— Kim Dong-chul, Kim Sang-duk, and Kim Hak-song — have been released from a labor camp and given health treatment and ideological education in Pyongyang, the Financial Times report said.

"We heard it through our sources in North Korea late last month," Choi Sung-ryong told the news outlet. "We believe that Mr. Trump can take them back on the day of the US-North Korea summit or he can send an envoy to take them back to the US before the summit."
Sounds like Kim is using them as bait. Do you think Trump will make them stay there for another month?
  #179  
Old 05-02-2018, 06:47 PM
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Not so fast:

Sounds like Kim is using them as bait. Do you think Trump will make them stay there for another month?
My money is on Donald bringing them back with him with whatever additional intestinal parasite the accumulate between now and then. I wonder if he will sit next to them on the plane.
  #180  
Old 05-02-2018, 07:06 PM
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My money is on Donald bringing them back with him with whatever additional intestinal parasite the accumulate between now and then. I wonder if he will sit next to them on the plane.
And if the meeting falls through, they are stuck in a Pyongyang re-education center.
  #181  
Old 05-02-2018, 07:24 PM
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And if the meeting falls through, they are stuck in a Pyongyang re-education center.
Where they are beaten for eating a grain of corn they found in the dirt.
Yep.
  #182  
Old 05-03-2018, 03:36 AM
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Not so fast:

Sounds like Kim is using them as bait. Do you think Trump will make them stay there for another month?
Translation: "Donald, you can either send an envoy now to bring the Americans home, which would be more humane, or you can make them wait in our re-education camp and bring them home personally with all the photo ops that will provide for you. And if you don't turn up, you'll look like the selfish bitch you are."

Kim or his team have just played Donald like a harp, knowing there's no way he'll bring them home early and no way he can skip out on the talks. (Mind you, if he does bring them home early I'll be mightily impressed at whoever convinced him to do it. Steve Doocey, maybe.)
  #183  
Old 05-03-2018, 08:12 AM
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Translation: "Donald, you can either send an envoy now to bring the Americans home, which would be more humane, or you can make them wait in our re-education camp and bring them home personally with all the photo ops that will provide for you. And if you don't turn up, you'll look like the selfish bitch you are."

Kim or his team have just played Donald like a harp, knowing there's no way he'll bring them home early and no way he can skip out on the talks. (Mind you, if he does bring them home early I'll be mightily impressed at whoever convinced him to do it. Steve Doocey, maybe.)
I guess we will see today.

Regards,
Shodan
  #184  
Old 05-03-2018, 08:30 AM
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I guess we will see today.

Regards,
Shodan
Outstanding!
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Old 05-03-2018, 09:41 AM
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Outstanding!
Will this actually happen? Probably. Would it have happened under any other President (who wanted to negotiate with the Northies)? Probably. Is it a sign that NK is going to negotiate in good faith? Almost certainly not. Will the negotiations lead to NK de-nuclearizing? Hell no.

Is it a good thing anyway? Yes.

Regards,
Shodan
  #186  
Old 05-03-2018, 09:43 AM
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I think this is a combination of a lot of things.

1. Trump, Moon, and Kim want US troops out of Korea. It's a win/win/win.
2. Kim's nuke test site is destroyed.
3. China's finally putting on considerable pressure.
4. Trump is the first president credibly crazy enough to attack NK without giving SK's safety much thought. NK has never had to deal with that before.
5. Kim knows he can start pulling crap again in a few years anyway. Only this time, there will be no American troops there.
  #187  
Old 05-03-2018, 09:55 AM
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Well I'll be. A good thing is likely to happen. I tip my hat to whomever was responsible. Going by that article, even SHS appears to be striking the right tone, despite Rudy's best efforts to screw everything up. If they come home today I will be thrilled.
  #188  
Old 05-03-2018, 09:57 AM
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"Troops" are a bit of a misnomer, they are mostly armed and uniformed hostages. They are nestled amidst a much larger group, neither armed nor uniformed, which, for the sake of convenience, we may refer to as "everybody else".
  #189  
Old 05-03-2018, 10:47 AM
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3. China's finally putting on considerable pressure.
4. Trump is the first president credibly crazy enough to attack NK without giving SK's safety much thought. NK has never had to deal with that before.
5. Kim knows he can start pulling crap again in a few years anyway. Only this time, there will be no American troops there.
These are the three key ones. And I believe 3 and 4 are linked. China fears that Trump really could invade NK and they do not want that. So better to put some pressure on NK, at least while Trump is in charge.

#4 is exactly why Trump will not, and should not, get the Nobel Peace Prize. Although, I heard Trump's nomination is past the deadline anyway.

Last edited by BeepKillBeep; 05-03-2018 at 10:47 AM.
  #190  
Old 05-06-2018, 02:18 PM
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Well, if we're just up and believing North Korea, looks like Trump didn't have shit to do with it.
  #191  
Old 05-06-2018, 02:52 PM
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Moon said Trump deserved a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end the standoff with the North.
Which source do you consider more credible?
  #192  
Old 05-06-2018, 03:18 PM
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Which source do you consider more credible?
Are you asking whether we should take someone's word about why they are doing something, or take someone else's word why someone else is going something?

As negotiations are barely started, and there is no denuclearization to be seen as of yet, I don't know that anyone can be credited for anything.

But, as the actual party in question, and the one that is being asked to denuclearize is the one explaining what is causing them to have the reactions that they are, it is at least useful to listen to them, and not immediately label them as liars.

Though, I suppose I could see trump doing exactly that. Touting his negotiation skills, calling Kim out on what trump perceives as a slight, and moving us back away from the negotiation table.

Remember, nothing is yet accomplished. Giving trump credit for things that are not yet done does not make much sense.
  #193  
Old 05-06-2018, 04:06 PM
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Which source do you consider more credible?
Do you believe Moon's statement was directed towards the Norwegian Nobel Committee or Donald Trump?
  #194  
Old 05-06-2018, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Chisquirrel View Post
Do you believe Moon's statement was directed towards the Norwegian Nobel Committee or Donald Trump?
That is what I was going to suggest, he is sucking up to the US President.
  #195  
Old 05-06-2018, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Vinyl Turnip View Post
Moon, like anyone else who has to deal with our president and isn't a complete fool, has ascertained that a flattered Trump is a pacified Trump. So, sure, give him the Nobel Peace Prize. Give him four or five of them. Give him toys to play with and trophies to wave around— whatever it takes to keep him distracted so other people can try to get things accomplished without him fucking it up.
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Originally Posted by ElvisL1ves View Post
That's it. In addition, he is the President and he does have all the power of the United States at his command. If being on the good side of that power means a little self-humiliation at times, well, that's what you signed up for when you went into politics, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chisquirrel View Post
Do you believe Moon's statement was directed towards the Norwegian Nobel Committee or Donald Trump?
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Originally Posted by carnivorousplant View Post
That is what I was going to suggest, he is sucking up to the US President.
You know who doesn't have to suck up to the US President? Kim Jong Un.
Quote:
With just weeks to go before President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are expected to hold their first-ever summit, Pyongyang on Sunday criticized what it called “misleading” claims that Trump’s policy of maximum political pressure and sanctions are what drove the North to the negotiating table.

The North’s official news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman warning the claims are a “dangerous attempt” to ruin a budding detente on the Korean Peninsula after Kim’s summit late last month with South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
Quote:
Trump and senior U.S. officials have suggested repeatedly that Washington’s tough policy toward North Korea, along with pressure on its main trading partner China, have played a decisive role in turning around what had been an extremely tense situation. Just last year, as Kim was launching long-range missiles at a record pace and trading vulgar insults with Trump, it would have seemed unthinkable for the topic of denuclearization to be on the table.

But the North’s statement on Sunday seemed to be aimed at strengthening Kim’s position going into his meeting with Trump. Pyongyang claims Kim himself is the driver of the current situation.

“The U.S. is deliberately provoking the DPRK at the time when the situation on the Korean Peninsula is moving toward peace and reconciliation,” the spokesman was quoted as saying.
(bolding mine)
  #196  
Old 05-06-2018, 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
You know who doesn't have to suck up to the US President? Kim Jong Un.(bolding mine)
So your impression is that Kim is a fearless truth-teller? Willing to give us the unvarnished truth? Is that it?
  #197  
Old 05-06-2018, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
So your impression is that Kim is a fearless truth-teller? Willing to give us the unvarnished truth? Is that it?
Sort of like a certain current president I could name.
  #198  
Old 05-06-2018, 07:12 PM
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It will be interesting.
  #199  
Old 05-06-2018, 07:16 PM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
So your impression is that Kim is a fearless truth-teller? Willing to give us the unvarnished truth? Is that it?
This is entire thread was STARTED based on someone claiming exactly that. Who could that person possibly be, and could he possibly be invited back to the thread to share why he felt Kim Jong Un was being utterly truthful when he claimed North Korea was ending their nuclear ambitions?
  #200  
Old 05-06-2018, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Ashtura View Post
I think this is a combination of a lot of things.

1. Trump, Moon, and Kim want US troops out of Korea. It's a win/win/win.
2. Kim's nuke test site is destroyed.
3. China's finally putting on considerable pressure.
4. Trump is the first president credibly crazy enough to attack NK without giving SK's safety much thought. NK has never had to deal with that before.
5. Kim knows he can start pulling crap again in a few years anyway. Only this time, there will be no American troops there.
6. The potential for a US/China trade war has probably (well, definitely) got the Chinese spooked, as they can't be sure if Trump is crazy and stupid enough to go all in, and so they are trying to do what they can and exert what leverage they can on the NK situation and probably through back channels get the message to Trump that they are doing so.


I think that mainly this is NK doing what they have always done...they pushed the situation to the max, now they want to appear to be making concessions and are expecting some sort of pay off. We've gone through this cycle several times in the past, and I have no doubt it will be rinse and repeat down the road, until the regime finally collapses. I doubt any serious changes will be made, structurally, to NK, as any change would just push they over the edge. I don't expect an actual peace treaty with SK, and I doubt they will do more than back burner their missile or nuke program...probably they will continue working on it with simulations or by buying tech (or getting it from one of the Chinese factions opposed to Xi), to re-emerge down the road when they want to push things again for more handouts.

I will say that Trump had a non-zero effect on this, IMHO anyway. I think he IS crazy and stupid, and that his willingness to do unexpected and stupid shit (I could give a laundry list of actions, but just consider the first Syrian strike and this idiotic trade war brinksmanship as military and economic things that have everyone wondering what the fuck he might do next) has spooked a lot of more rational (and isn't it ironic that the CCP would be a more rational player?? ) nations, and probably has the NK's actually wondering what he and the US might do next. It's one thing to play brinksman games when you figure the bigger guy won't do anything but view with alarm, but when he might decide to send in an air and missile strike seemingly out of the blue and without regard to the broader ramifications? Screw that noise, perhaps it's time to simmer things down and look like the rational party...plus, maybe get some nice swag or concessions for appearing to do so!
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