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  #101  
Old 04-27-2019, 10:33 AM
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For me, Biden's appeal is that he is the most likely candidate to ball up his fist and break Trump's nose during a debate. Then flash a smile. And I'm pretty sure nobody will try to stop him.

Biden with a knock-out in first round.
When it comes to irascible old guys I think Sanders has Biden beat.

Biden is a much more huggy, give you a shoulder massage kinda guy.
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  #102  
Old 04-27-2019, 02:02 PM
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For me, Biden's appeal is that he is the most likely candidate to ball up his fist and break Trump's nose during a debate. Then flash a smile. And I'm pretty sure nobody will try to stop him.

Biden with a knock-out in first round.
A more interesting bet is which one falls and breaks a hip after the first clumsy old man roundhouse swing.
  #103  
Old 04-27-2019, 02:43 PM
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Cadet Bonespurs flinches at the advancing fist, and his weight problem and lack of dexterity and balance cause this mere flinch to become a full fall. While he's down he receives a kick in the ribs. Secret service considers feigning interest, and Biden tells them not to worry, he's made his point.

Last edited by bobot; 04-27-2019 at 02:45 PM.
  #104  
Old 04-27-2019, 03:57 PM
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When it comes to irascible old guys I think Sanders has Biden beat.

Biden is a much more huggy, give you a shoulder massage kinda guy.
Bernie is more of a guy you'd want to have a beer with.
  #105  
Old 04-27-2019, 05:07 PM
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It's all in the messaging. When conservatives can sell "death panels," and liberals can't shut that down, is the problem. Death panels are absurd but people bought it.

I think the new crop of legislators is better at the messaging than previous ones. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a knack for it. I think if someone tossed "death panels" at her she'd swat it down with ease. She's just one person and it is a monumental task but gotta start somewhere.

And that is really it...gotta start somewhere. If we go with your take on it then it will never happen because you will always say we need to win the next election and cannot deal with this now. If not now then when?
I agree completely that single-payer works all around the world, and there's no reason it won't work in the US. I also agree with asahi that getting there will be a brutal process.

I tend to think that transitioning---transitioning people's understanding of this issue, that is---could be done via emphasis on a public option. Throwing frightened US citizens into the icy sea (metaphorically speaking) by attempting to force a major change like this, would be tremendously shocking. And 'tremendously shocking' isn't really a winning political message.

Job one: deep-six Trump. Anything that stands in the way of that should be approached with serious caution.

Last edited by Sherrerd; 04-27-2019 at 05:08 PM.
  #106  
Old 04-28-2019, 03:13 AM
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I watched the Shields and Brooks show on PBS. "From Twitter you'd think Biden doesn't have a chance, but his fund-raising sets records." Brooks has an explanation of that:

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Originally Posted by David Brooks
You have got this weird phenomenon where the Republican elites are kind of moderate — they'd be happy with Mitt Romney — but the grassroots are radicalized. On the Democratic side, the elites are kind of radicalized, but the grassroots are a little more moderate.
Mark Shields makes the point that amidst all the improprieties and rumors of Washington D.C., Joe Biden's record has been impeccable. He's ebullient, not a harasser. Biden just needs to come up with a disciplined response and stick to it. This is what GWB did when asked about his misspent youth: "When I was young and foolish I was young and foolish." After a while, journalists got tired of asking the same question.
  #107  
Old 04-28-2019, 05:58 AM
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Agreed with octopus (oh God, three words I wouldn't have thought I'd utter). Plus if Biden is a throwback to anything, it'll be the Obama presidency, and there's a real push of nostalgia for that. Plus, the younger folks actually remember that era, which is not true of the '88-92 era.
I'm not so certain about the nostalgia angle. I was in my early 20s during the 2008 election, and I remember myself and all of my friends being very disappointed when Biden was chosen as Obama's running mate. I'm an unapologetic lefty, and the kids ten years younger than me are even farther to the left than I am.
  #108  
Old 04-28-2019, 08:18 AM
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Most people aren't unapologetic lefties though. I doubt a lot of people were disappointed that the first major black candidate in US history didn't pick a more lefty running mate.
  #109  
Old 04-28-2019, 08:34 AM
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Biden may not be the president we want, but he may well be the president we need. If only to calm everybody the fuck down and restore some competence and operational normalcy to key fed institutions.
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  #110  
Old 04-28-2019, 04:35 PM
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Biden may not be the president we want, but he may well be the president we need. If only to calm everybody the fuck down and restore some competence and operational normalcy to key fed institutions.
Kinda like Obama did a decade ago - and here we are.
  #111  
Old 04-28-2019, 04:41 PM
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Kinda like Obama did a decade ago - and here we are.
It's the never-ending task of the adults (the Democrats) to clean up the messes created by the irresponsible, greedy, heedless-of-consequences Republican children.
  #112  
Old 04-28-2019, 07:42 PM
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It's the never-ending task of the adults (the Democrats) to clean up the messes created by the irresponsible, greedy, heedless-of-consequences Republican children.
We've got a vicious cycle going here. Obama got <2 years to clean up and make some positive changes before losing House. We can't keep on having such a crappy ratio of time spent cleaning up after the elephants, to time that the elephants are messing things up - especially since it squeezes out time for Dems to actually improve things.

Just restoring normalcy isn't going to break the cycle.
  #113  
Old 04-29-2019, 06:31 AM
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Biden may not be the president we want, but he may well be the president we need. If only to calm everybody the fuck down and restore some competence and operational normalcy to key fed institutions.
Exactly. This is his time and he's exactly what we need right now. There is no one as high profile as him who has been in politics as long as he has who isn't actively hated by the other side. Sure, the Republicans will try hard to beat him and throw everything at him that they can. But that's politics. He just doesn't engender the same hatred from the right as Clinton or Obama. He can actually be a unifying figure at a time when we really need one.

THat should be Biden's campaign slogan: "Everybody just calm the fk down!"
  #114  
Old 04-29-2019, 06:49 AM
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It's all in the messaging. When conservatives can sell "death panels," and liberals can't shut that down, is the problem. Death panels are absurd but people bought it.
On some level, people were susceptible to buying it easily, because talking hypothetically about reforming healthcare and then initiating a legislative effort that included a variety of proposals are two different things. No matter how you pitch it, there is no getting around the fact that Bernie Sanders is talking about dramatic changes to the healthcare system. A lot of these changes are things I and apparently a lot of others can agree with in principle, but there's no question that changes on this scale would be disruptive, at least temporarily, and people are afraid of that. Moreover, that's not an unreasonable fear.

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I think the new crop of legislators is better at the messaging than previous ones. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a knack for it. I think if someone tossed "death panels" at her she'd swat it down with ease. She's just one person and it is a monumental task but gotta start somewhere.

And that is really it...gotta start somewhere. If we go with your take on it then it will never happen because you will always say we need to win the next election and cannot deal with this now. If not now then when?
No, she wouldn't swat it down with ease any more easily than Obama was able to swat down mounting criticisms - some completely and utterly invalid, and some not - of his proposals in 2009. I like AOC a lot, but she comes from a district that is way, way different than the kinds of voters who will ultimately decide whether this country moves forward on Berniecare.

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  #115  
Old 04-29-2019, 06:53 AM
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Biden may not be the president we want, but he may well be the president we need. If only to calm everybody the fuck down and restore some competence and operational normalcy to key fed institutions.
I don't think we're going back to "normal" - not the pre-2016 normal anyway. We can't go back to normal until we get past this period of polarization, and I don't think it has played itself out yet. People have to recognize on a more personal level that tribalism isn't going to work for them the way they thought it might. I don't think we'll get there until we get it out of our system first, and that probably means some kind of bad shit is going to happen before we do.
  #116  
Old 04-29-2019, 02:45 PM
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Awesome, fantastic news.

We FINALLY! have a centrist candidate that has a chance of winning.

Hot damn, finally a Democrat that isn't uktra left wing.

I had early hopes for Kamala Harris she had an outstanding reputation as AG of California. Tough on crime. Tough, no nonsense pragmatic politician. She's been backpedaling and apologizing like crazy. Letting her political minders reshape her image. Shifting left. A damn shame.

I'll be crushed if Biden lets those PR clowns do that too him.

The trouble with Kamala is that she comes off Joe-Friday-cold and does not seem highly inspiring. I also question the judgment of any candidate who thinks impeachment should go forward at this time. I don't believe any good can come of that.
  #117  
Old 04-29-2019, 02:49 PM
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Biden may not be the president we want, but he may well be the president we need. If only to calm everybody the fuck down and restore some competence and operational normalcy to key fed institutions.
Well said. I only hope that if he does win, he can wash Trump's poop out of the Nation's underpants.
  #118  
Old 04-29-2019, 02:58 PM
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Well said. I only hope that if he does win, he can wash Trump's poop out of the Nation's underpants.
I suspect those oily orange feces will leave quite the mark, even after a good scrubbing with bleach.
  #119  
Old 04-29-2019, 07:38 PM
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We've got a vicious cycle going here. Obama got <2 years to clean up and make some positive changes before losing House. We can't keep on having such a crappy ratio of time spent cleaning up after the elephants, to time that the elephants are messing things up - especially since it squeezes out time for Dems to actually improve things.

Just restoring normalcy isn't going to break the cycle.
Yes, 100%. You'd think even the oligarchs, despite their desire to grab all they can when the elephants are in charge, would see the value in having a stable economy---possible only when the adults have enough time to clean up. (But they don't seem to be capable of that much foresight.)

(Funny how perfectly that 'cleaning up after elephants' metaphor applies!)
  #120  
Old 04-29-2019, 08:05 PM
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Yes, 100%. You'd think even the oligarchs, despite their desire to grab all they can when the elephants are in charge, would see the value in having a stable economy---possible only when the adults have enough time to clean up. (But they don't seem to be capable of that much foresight.)

(Funny how perfectly that 'cleaning up after elephants' metaphor applies!)
I'm reminded of the joke about the circus worker that has the punchline: "What, and give up show business?!?"
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  #121  
Old 04-29-2019, 08:34 PM
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I'm reminded of the joke about the circus worker that has the punchline: "What, and give up show business?!?"
Apparently some deity or other decided the USA needed "show business" to combine with politics in precisely that manure, er, manner.
  #122  
Old 04-30-2019, 06:18 AM
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Just out: Biden polling better than Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Beto O’Rourke — put together.
  #123  
Old 04-30-2019, 06:34 AM
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For those who favor other candidates, it's neither surprising nor alarming that the poll numbers significantly favor Biden at this point. Other than Bernie Sanders he's the most recognizable name among those running. We won't know anything until we begin to see Biden against other candidates side-by-side in the televised debates.

Biden might have made a good move tactically by not revealing too much of his platform specifics too early. Just his name alone will buy him time to craft a message. I think there are some openings in Bernie Sanders and those who have already pinned themselves into a corner by staking bold positions. We already know, for instance, that Bernie wants to effectively push private insurance companies out of the health insurance industry altogether. It would be very easy to characterize Sanders as a whack job and too scary to vote for. And some of the other candidates have already drunk some of the Sanders Kool-Aid.

Last edited by asahi; 04-30-2019 at 06:35 AM.
  #124  
Old 04-30-2019, 08:21 AM
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I'll just note that it's whoever Trump doesn't talk about that he's the most worried about winning against.

He'll try to pump up the media for the person he wants to compete against, even if it means leaking to the press that he's "so scared" about that person.
  #125  
Old 04-30-2019, 08:55 AM
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So he must be extremely butt-puckered about Jay Inslee and Eric Swalwell then.
  #126  
Old 04-30-2019, 10:08 AM
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So he must be extremely butt-puckered about Jay Inslee and Eric Swalwell then.
No idea. It narrows it down but doesn't tell you much when there are so many options.
  #127  
Old 04-30-2019, 10:26 AM
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No idea. It narrows it down but doesn't tell you much when there are so many options.
You just said Trump's most worried about the ones he's not talking about. You think he's worried about the ones polling at under 10%, but not Biden?

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  #128  
Old 04-30-2019, 10:34 AM
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Sign me up for the Biden team. He's doing the right thing- taking the fight directly to Donald while staying above the primary fray. If he has the support, why pick an intra-party fight? He's saying the right things, reminding us that we're better than what we've had the past 2 years. Asking the crowd if they benefited from the tax cut was a good move. He needs to keep whacking Donald's knees. And he should keep bringing up Charlottesville, Donald will take the bait every single time and keep doubling down for his white nationalist base. Sure, he's had some clinkers- floating Stacey Abrams as a veep was bonheaded, as was his ham fisted attempt to make up with Anita Hill. But rather than run someone who the GOP will paint with a hammer and sickle, let's run someone who can actually win.
  #129  
Old 04-30-2019, 01:29 PM
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I saw some clips of Biden's speech in Pittsburgh. The content was fine, but his enunciation was worrisome in several cases.
  #130  
Old 04-30-2019, 01:32 PM
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I may not like Biden, but a lot of other people clearly do. He's gotten a VERY good announcement bump.

Per 538, Morning Consult's poll has him going from 30% to 36% support - and only half the time the 36% poll was in the field, was after Biden's announcement.

Also per 538, CNN has him at 39%, from 28% in mid-March.

And Quinnipiac has him at 38%, up from 29% at the end of March.

He's the front runner, no question about it.
  #131  
Old 04-30-2019, 02:19 PM
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Missed this the first time around. Can't say I'm a fan of that, especially the student-loan parts.

Still, not necessarily a deal-breaker. Not in the tank for Joe, but not entirely out, either.
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  #132  
Old 04-30-2019, 03:08 PM
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You just said Trump's most worried about the ones he's not talking about. You think he's worried about the ones polling at under 10%, but not Biden?
Given his anti-socialist moves, I'm guessing that he's trying to push for Bernie to make it to the top of the pile. That's probably who he wants to challenge most. I don't know that he has said much about Biden so far, but I think he has mentioned him more than most of the no-names.

As to the polls, I wouldn't worry about them yet. What name actually floats to the top won't manifest itself until the primaries begin. But, in general, the more the better.
  #133  
Old 04-30-2019, 05:00 PM
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I'll just note that it's whoever Trump doesn't talk about that he's the most worried about winning against.

He'll try to pump up the media for the person he wants to compete against, even if it means leaking to the press that he's "so scared" about that person.
I agree that Trump would enjoy being deceptive in this way. But I don't believe he possesses the self-control it would take to refrain from sniping at the people that worry him most, and to conceal who it is who 'actually' worries him.

I think he's tweeting about the people who do worry him.

Like others in the thread I'm not even remotely enthusiastic about Biden, but he's doings some things right. The early endorsement by the firefighters union--and having them prominently standing behind him at speeches--was smart. That cuts directly at Trump's lies about how HE is the worker's friend and the tough guy that other tough guys admire.

One of my chief objections to Biden was the vulnerability created by his previous, losing, Presidential runs. But after all, Trump ran for president before 2016 and lost (the 2000 attempt, at least, went pretty far), too. So that may not be as much of a vulnerability as I'd feared.

Last edited by Sherrerd; 04-30-2019 at 05:03 PM.
  #134  
Old 04-30-2019, 09:08 PM
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Trump ran in the reform party in 2000 but only for a short time. but back then he was liberal on some social issues.
  #135  
Old 05-01-2019, 05:21 AM
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Most people aren't unapologetic lefties though. I doubt a lot of people were disappointed that the first major black candidate in US history didn't pick a more lefty running mate.
True, but my comment was in response to a claim about younger voters fondly remembering the Obama era. I don't see enthusiasm among my peers for Biden.
  #136  
Old 05-01-2019, 05:59 AM
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Sign me up for the Biden team. He's doing the right thing- taking the fight directly to Donald while staying above the primary fray.
Why is this the right thing? I get this impression that Biden is vulnerable on a lot of the same issues that Clinton was, and I think that's why Biden is far less focused on the issues than several other candidates. I mean, when I think Biden, I think

1994 Crime Bill
the Iraq War
Wall Street ties
NAFTA and TPP support (which Trump is going to hammer him on)
welfare reform
the Patriot Act
against Net Neutrality
the War on Drugs
the RAVE Act (admittedly, no one cares about the RAVE Act but me )
Anita Hill
the Hyde Amendment
voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment (I mean, I'll give him credit for supporting same-sex marriage before Obama, but we were gay long before 2012)

The positives are the VAWA, his record on gun control, and in some part his record on climate change (which is huge step up from Trump, admittedly). What do y'all see in him? He seems like another John Kerry / Hillary Clinton, and I'd honestly rather have Clinton run again.
  #137  
Old 05-01-2019, 06:04 AM
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Trump will love running against someone with a 40+ year record to go after.
  #138  
Old 05-01-2019, 03:01 PM
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Why is this the right thing? I get this impression that Biden is vulnerable on a lot of the same issues that Clinton was, and I think that's why Biden is far less focused on the issues than several other candidates. I mean, when I think Biden, I think

1994 Crime Bill
the Iraq War
Wall Street ties
NAFTA and TPP support (which Trump is going to hammer him on)
welfare reform
the Patriot Act
against Net Neutrality
the War on Drugs
the RAVE Act (admittedly, no one cares about the RAVE Act but me )
Anita Hill
the Hyde Amendment
voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment (I mean, I'll give him credit for supporting same-sex marriage before Obama, but we were gay long before 2012)
Add in he is a corprocrat to his bones. Has been his entire career, particularly for the banks and he shows no signs of slowing down. His very first fundraiser was at a Comcast executive's house attended by health insurance executives and GOP donors.

Remember too that Comcast owns NBC and that after the fundraiser Biden hired an NBC communications director to his campaign.

Clinton-like $150,000 speaking fees.

He is Hillary Clinton warmed over and I really cannot understand why democrats want more of this. Get the DNC in the bag for him ala Clinton. Get the superdelegates on his side ala Clinton (which have much less power since the last election but would be a factor at a contested convention). Get the media pulling for him ala Clinton.

She lost to one of the worst candidates in history and it is not because of Bernie Bros. Putting Biden up in the general election is exactly the kind of person so many hated when it was HRC up there. Trump was a vote for change and not more of insiders like HRC running the show. Trump was a ridiculous choice and yet we got Trump. Consider that before pulling the lever for Biden. He is everything HRC was and maybe more.
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  #139  
Old 05-01-2019, 03:04 PM
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A lot of these changes are things I and apparently a lot of others can agree with in principle, but there's no question that changes on this scale would be disruptive, at least temporarily, and people are afraid of that. Moreover, that's not an unreasonable fear.
Left to you it would never happen because it will always be an unknown and people will always be fearful of the unknown.

The ball needs to get rolling and now is better than later. It is not like the change would happen over night. It would be a long, drawn out process with no shortage of squabbling over it. But it needs to start.
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  #140  
Old 05-01-2019, 03:12 PM
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Add in he is a corprocrat to his bones. Has been his entire career, particularly for the banks and he shows no signs of slowing down. His very first fundraiser was at a Comcast executive's house attended by health insurance executives and GOP donors.

Remember too that Comcast owns NBC and that after the fundraiser Biden hired an NBC communications director to his campaign.

Clinton-like $150,000 speaking fees.

He is Hillary Clinton warmed over and I really cannot understand why democrats want more of this. Get the DNC in the bag for him ala Clinton. Get the superdelegates on his side ala Clinton (which have much less power since the last election but would be a factor at a contested convention). Get the media pulling for him ala Clinton.

She lost to one of the worst candidates in history and it is not because of Bernie Bros. Putting Biden up in the general election is exactly the kind of person so many hated when it was HRC up there. Trump was a vote for change and not more of insiders like HRC running the show. Trump was a ridiculous choice and yet we got Trump. Consider that before pulling the lever for Biden. He is everything HRC was and maybe more.
You can compare him to Hillary Clinton on paper all you want. I mean, on paper, are any of them that much different than Obama?

Watch him on the stump. Watch what states and voters he focuses on. He's everything Hillary wasn't.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 05-01-2019 at 03:12 PM.
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Old 05-01-2019, 03:19 PM
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he has a slight advantage over H Clinton because he has not been bashed non stop since 1992 when Bill was elected. But he will certainly get bashed now.
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Old 05-01-2019, 03:21 PM
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He's also not Hillary in the aspect of the hatred she received from so many, for various reasons, most as a result of a 25-30 year smear campaign.

ETA: Like Bijou Drains said.

Last edited by bobot; 05-01-2019 at 03:22 PM.
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Old 05-01-2019, 03:34 PM
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And thankfully, it's not the case that the Democratic establishment are rallying behind Biden with anything like the unanimity they displayed for Clinton. Yes, he's leading the 538 "endorsement tracker", but with only 75 points. Hillary was well over 200 at this point last cycle. Most of the Democratic establishment seems to have learned their lesson about unifying behind a candidate before the actual voters have had their chance to weigh in. Amusingly, the candidate currently leading in endorsements by DNC members is... Bernie Sanders!
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Old 05-01-2019, 04:52 PM
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Trump ran in the reform party in 2000 but only for a short time. but back then he was liberal on some social issues.
My point is that Trump's 2000 run was serious enough that he jumped through several of the process hoops before dropping out-- formed an exploratory committee and ran a campaign in several states, etc. So Trump really does NOT have a valid 'the first time I ran, I won' claim (though of course that won't stop him lying about it).



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And thankfully, it's not the case that the Democratic establishment are rallying behind Biden with anything like the unanimity they displayed for Clinton. Yes, he's leading the 538 "endorsement tracker", but with only 75 points. Hillary was well over 200 at this point last cycle. Most of the Democratic establishment seems to have learned their lesson about unifying behind a candidate before the actual voters have had their chance to weigh in. ...
Good point, and a good counter to the 'Biden is exactly the same as Hillary' arguments.
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Old 05-01-2019, 05:27 PM
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Trump will love running against someone with a 40+ year record to go after.
Why? It's not like an exhaustive oppo report was part of his last campaign. Lyin' Ted, Li"l Marco, low energy Bush and Crooked Hillary didn't get their nicknames from their record.
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Old 05-01-2019, 06:27 PM
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I'd vote for Bo Biden before I voted for Trump.
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Old 05-01-2019, 06:38 PM
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I'd vote for Bo Biden before I voted for Trump.
Stay classy, gato.
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Old 05-01-2019, 07:27 PM
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he has a slight advantage over H Clinton because he has not been bashed non stop since 1992 when Bill was elected. But he will certainly get bashed now.
He will get bashed. And don’t forget that despite that long smear effort against her HRC started the cycle with strong approval ratings (from her Obama service days) but dropped during the course of the primaries and general.

He is not inevitable. Just the current one to beat.
  #149  
Old 05-01-2019, 07:32 PM
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You can compare him to Hillary Clinton on paper all you want. I mean, on paper, are any of them that much different than Obama?

Watch him on the stump. Watch what states and voters he focuses on. He's everything Hillary wasn't.
Biden has been 100% in the bag for banks his entire career. It may be it is impossible to get a politician from Delaware who isn't. Regardless, that alone should make him a no-go for a democratic candidate today.

I do not think Obama was the same when he ran although his administration certainly became a protector of banks. Was that Biden's influence? I have no idea. Either way it is a blight on Obama's presidency (and I mean things like giving HSBC a pass on major criminal actions from the bank).
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Old 05-01-2019, 07:58 PM
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He's also not Hillary in the aspect of the hatred she received from so many, for various reasons, most as a result of a 25-30 year smear campaign.

ETA: Like Bijou Drains said.
And the reason for that 25-30 year hate campaign was that Hillary Clinton dared to be ambitious. The conservatives - even moderates in her own party - had contempt toward her for not knowing her own place. Keep in mind she had more to do with putting healthcare reform into the public consciousness for an entire generation of people than anyone, including Obama and including Bernie Sanders. They were both late-comers to the party. Hillary Clinton's progressive ideals and female ambition were the reasons that Democrats lost control of the congress after 40 years.

And that crime bill she "supported"? She wasn't in the congress then. She didn't vote for it. But guess what? Bernie Sanders was in congress - and he DID vote for it.
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