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Old 07-10-2019, 09:27 PM
Walken After Midnight is offline
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What was the largest city/town to vote Trump in 2016?


Urban voters tend to vote Democrat. What were the largest cities or towns that voted Trump (i.e. that Trump won the most votes in) in the 2016 election?
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Old 07-10-2019, 09:50 PM
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Houston, I believe.
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Old 07-10-2019, 09:55 PM
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Donald Trump got 52% of the vote in Houston in 2016.
Cite: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016...ction_in_Texas

Houston, in terms of population, is America’s 4th largest city, behind New York, LA, and Chicago.
Cite: https://ballotpedia.org/Largest_citi..._by_population

I didn’t check the vote totals in NY, LA, or Chicago, but what do you think?
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Old 07-10-2019, 09:58 PM
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Trump also won Phoenix, Arizona.
Cite: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016...ion_in_Arizona
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Old 07-10-2019, 10:14 PM
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A 3-D representation of the vote by county, which is not what you asked for but close and easy to read. https://blueshift.io/election-2016-county-map.html
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Old 07-10-2019, 11:21 PM
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[Sorry, I accidentally did that thing that was mentioned in ATMB involving the TAB key which posts one's post when it isn't finished].

Last edited by Walken After Midnight; 07-10-2019 at 11:23 PM.
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Old 07-10-2019, 11:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Moriarty View Post
Donald Trump got 52% of the vote in Houston in 2016.
Cite: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016...ction_in_Texas

Houston, in terms of population, is America’s 4th largest city, behind New York, LA, and Chicago.
Cite: https://ballotpedia.org/Largest_citi..._by_population

I didn’t check the vote totals in NY, LA, or Chicago, but what do you think?
52% (52.23%) was what Trump won in the state of Texas, not the city of Houston.

Here's a map of Texas showing results by county and number of votes by size and candidates by color: Large [Smaller sizes]

It looks like Clinton did well in the cities.

Houston is in Harris County, which voted for Clinton (53.95%) over Trump (41.61%).
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Originally Posted by Moriarty View Post
Trump also won Phoenix, Arizona.
Cite: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016...ion_in_Arizona
This may be correct. Phoenix is in Maricopa County, which voted for Trump over Clinton.

Trump: 747,361 / 48.63%
Clinton: 702,907 / 45.74%

Here's the map. I'm not sure how many of those county votes came from outside the city of Phoenix itself, though.
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Old 07-11-2019, 12:11 AM
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A 3-D representation of the vote by county, which is not what you asked for but close and easy to read. https://blueshift.io/election-2016-county-map.html
That's a really good map. Maricopa County stands out as the tallest red county, albeit a very pale red.

Here are population statistics for Maricopa County and Phoenix.

Maricopa County: 4.307 million (2017)
Phoenix: 1.626 million (2017)

So it does seem possible, perhaps even probable, that the city of Phoenix itself voted for Clinton. Trump got 44,454 more votes than Clinton in the county as a whole, which is not a lot.
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Old 07-11-2019, 12:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moriarty View Post
Houston, I believe.
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Originally Posted by Moriarty View Post
Donald Trump got 52% of the vote in Houston in 2016.
Cite: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016...ction_in_Texas

Houston, in terms of population, is America’s 4th largest city, behind New York, LA, and Chicago.
Cite: https://ballotpedia.org/Largest_citi..._by_population

I didn’t check the vote totals in NY, LA, or Chicago, but what do you think?
I think you have seriously incorrect beliefs. Houston most definitely did not go to DJT. Nor did NY, LA or Chicago. Not by a long shot.

As to Texas, San Antonio, Austin and Dallas went for Clinton as well. The largest city in Texas that went to DJT was most likely Fort Worth. It is difficult finding precise totals for these cities since most of the information is by county. But Harris, Bexar, Travis and Dallas counties all went strongly to Clinton. Tarrant County went to Trump.

Since these cities contain the bulk of the population for each of these counties, it is logical to conclude the vote totals for these cities line up with how the counties went.
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Old 07-11-2019, 01:05 AM
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If it's not Phoenix, it could be Jacksonville. Trump won Duval County, 95% of which is the city of Jacksonville (the city and county governments are consolidated, though, so it has a relatively small share of urban voters). But it was close enough that the other 5% in the remaining cities could matter.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 07-11-2019 at 01:08 AM.
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Old 07-11-2019, 04:57 AM
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I don't know how big Milwaukee is, but Trump won it. (Thanks a lot, Wisconsin.)
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Old 07-11-2019, 05:40 AM
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I don't know how big Milwaukee is, but Trump won it. (Thanks a lot, Wisconsin.)
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/re...ates/wisconsin

No, Clinton won Milwaukee.

Also: As always with cities, we need to define our terms. City limits? Metro areas?

Most of the data I’ve seen is by counties, and this sometimes jibes with one of these definitions, and sometimes doesn’t.
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:23 AM
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Well damn. Apologies, Milwaukee. I like your Summerfest.
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:30 AM
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My city, La Crosse, (a small city on the west side of Wisconsin), BARELY had a majority for Clinton. (Well, the city had a bigger majority for her, but the county barely did.) it was a wild and crazy day...I spent the morning knocking on doors for Hilary (the lack of enthusiasm and positive energy at the local campaign HQ was a disturbing early sign), and then spent the afternoon as a trainer volunteer assistant at our polling place — after putting on my scrupulously neutral hat, of course.

Sorry for the hijack.
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:47 AM
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Any city with a sizeable minority community upwards of 40% or more most likely went to Clinton, even if just barely. Trump was just that unpopular among Black and Hispanic voters. My WAG would be one of the larger 'suburbs' of Dallas, like Ft Worth (okay, not really a suburb) or Arlington.
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:52 AM
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Fort Worth is definitely a city in its own right, and getting quite big. It is about the same size as Jacksonville. (Almost 900,000).

It’s looking like these two cities are about tied for the factual answer to the OP. If we have to decide between them, I’d give the prize to Fort Worth, since Jacksonville’s vote was so close to a tie.
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:53 AM
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Originally Posted by JKellyMap View Post
Fort Worth is definitely a city in its own right, and getting quite big. It is about the same size as Jacksonville. (Almost 900,000).

It’s looking like these two cities are about tied for the factual answer to the OP. If we have to decide between them, I’d give the prize to Fort Worth, since Jacksonville’s vote was so close to a tie.
Out of curiosity, how much of Duval Co is Jacksonville? As I recall from my brief time living in FL, Jacksonville was pretty damn big geographically - like even larger than Los Angeles, I wanna say.
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Old 07-11-2019, 09:00 AM
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Sorry for the bad read on a quick search. Thanks for the correction.
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Old 07-11-2019, 10:33 AM
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It’s all good.
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Old 07-13-2019, 11:36 AM
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Chicago and Cook County went resoundingly for Hillary, of course. But I was heartened by the fact that Du Page County also went strongly for Clinton.

At one time, not in the too-distant past, Du Page was one of the reddest counties in the country.
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Old 07-14-2019, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by JKellyMap View Post
Fort Worth is definitely a city in its own right, and getting quite big. It is about the same size as Jacksonville. (Almost 900,000).

It’s looking like these two cities are about tied for the factual answer to the OP. If we have to decide between them, I’d give the prize to Fort Worth, since Jacksonville’s vote was so close to a tie.
Here are the details:

------------------

Populations:

Tarrant County: 2.054 million (2017)
Fort Worth: 874,168 (2017)

Tarrant County election results in 2016:

Trump: 345,921 / 51.74%
Clinton: 288,392 / 43.14%

Fort Worth is the 13th-largest city in the United States and fifth-largest city in Texas.

-------------------

Populations:

Duval County: 937,934 (2017)
Jacksonville: 892,062 (2017)

Duval County election results in 2016:

Trump: 211,672 / 48.92%
Clinton: 205,704 / 47.54%

Jacksonville is the 12th-largest city in the United States and largest in Florida.

-------------------

The Jacksonville result is a close call, so I agree that it's difficult to say with certainty whether Trump won that city. The Fort Worth result looks a stronger case, but we can't really say anything conclusive without being able to separate the votes coming from the city, from the votes coming from the rest of the county.
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Old 07-14-2019, 11:23 PM
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Out of curiosity, how much of Duval Co is Jacksonville? As I recall from my brief time living in FL, Jacksonville was pretty damn big geographically - like even larger than Los Angeles, I wanna say.
If I recall correctly, Jax takes up all of Duval except for Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, and Neptunr Beach, all in the SE oceanfront sliver.
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Old 07-15-2019, 11:40 AM
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If I recall correctly, Jax takes up all of Duval except for Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, and Neptunr Beach, all in the SE oceanfront sliver.
My information maybe out of date, but I remember studying how Jacksonville and Duval are a city-county in my State and Local politics class. This was at Florida State so we spent a lot of time studying Jacksonville and Duval and comparing their efficiency as opposed to places like Broward county which has quite a few incorporated cities.

Sorry for the hijack, but it is an interesting bit of trivia.
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Old 07-15-2019, 12:44 PM
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...Jacksonville and Duval are a city-county....
It's been a while since I lived in Florida, but San Fran is definitely the "City and County of San Francisco". No real separation at all. It's probably easier when the county is 7 x 7 miles.

Last edited by sps49sd; 07-15-2019 at 12:45 PM. Reason: did not capitaliza Florida
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Old 07-15-2019, 04:04 PM
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Will Wilkinson at the Niskanen Center (a moderate, "liberaltarian" think tank) talks about the density divide (full PDF paper). It's not so much the size of the city, but the population density that is predictive of vote share. Take a look at the charts on page 8 of the PDF.

It didn't used to be the case that density predicted partisan vote share, but it's certainly true now. And, because our system was designed to give a relative advantage to low density regions, the Republican Party now has much more power than would be expected from its vote share. And the divide is getting wider as self-sorting continues.
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Old 07-15-2019, 07:41 PM
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Interesting, RickG — thanks for sharing. To illustrate the point, Jacksonville and Fort Worth are quite low-density for big cities, Im pretty sure.
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Old 07-15-2019, 09:33 PM
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Trump lost Phoenix by 11 points:
https://agadjanianpolitics.wordpress...opa-county-az/
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Old 07-15-2019, 09:58 PM
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Will Wilkinson at the Niskanen Center (a moderate, "liberaltarian" think tank) talks about the density divide (full PDF paper). It's not so much the size of the city, but the population density that is predictive of vote share. Take a look at the charts on page 8 of the PDF.

It didn't used to be the case that density predicted partisan vote share, but it's certainly true now. And, because our system was designed to give a relative advantage to low density regions, the Republican Party now has much more power than would be expected from its vote share. And the divide is getting wider as self-sorting continues.
Interesting to see how it has changed over time. Maybe with high-speed broadband and infrastructure improvements, there could be less of a pull to the cities in future decades, and maybe even a reversal of the trend.
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Originally Posted by beowulff View Post
Good find, as well as snapshot of a county. Turnout was a bit higher in places Trump won, reflecting an energized base.
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Old 07-15-2019, 10:07 PM
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If I looked at the right precincts and didn't double-count anything, it looks like Hillary Clinton won Jacksonville (Duval County except for the beach cities and Baldwin) by 495 votes. (If I missed any, she won by more. Trump won every precinct anywhere near those areas.)

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 07-15-2019 at 10:12 PM.
  #30  
Old 07-15-2019, 10:18 PM
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The map of the Tarrant County voting on this page makes it look as though Clinton most likely won Fort Worth too.
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Old 07-15-2019, 10:25 PM
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Chicago and Cook County went resoundingly for Hillary, of course. But I was heartened by the fact that Du Page County also went strongly for Clinton.

At one time, not in the too-distant past, Du Page was one of the reddest counties in the country.
I remember noticing that at the time and wondered what had happened. Check out post #25 and look at the link RickG shared. Population density seems to correlate to voting for Democrats. I'm curious if that could be what happened in Du Page? If so then the GOP should be concerned about their future in states like Ohio, Florida, Texas, etc as the suburban counties around the cities see increases in density.
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Old 07-15-2019, 10:32 PM
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That also shows that Trump won Mesa (#35), which may be the answer.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 07-15-2019 at 10:33 PM.
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