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Old 08-17-2019, 12:03 PM
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Elizabeth Warren 2020


I looked for a thread to discuss her actual candidacy, as I'm interested in people's thoughts on her, and don't necessarily want the discussion buried in the Biden thread. I found a thread announcing her exploratory committee and one speculating on a run, but nothing recent.

She's never been one that I considered to win back the Industrial Midwestern voters that went to Trump in 2016, but she definitely has surprised me in a few ways. I am not willing to trash her or focus on her negatives, rather figure out how she can find a path to the presidency, should her popularity with Dems continue to rise.

Veep pick: I think if she were the nominee, she'd have to be very strategic about her running mate. On the one hand, I feel like there needs to be someone on the ticket that appeals to the white, working class voters in MI, WI, PA and OH, since that's not her natural constituency. On the other hand, maybe she can overcome that deficit with strong support from suburban voters and women and college educateds. But considering she's a white woman from MA, I don't think she can overlook the need to have a person of color on her ticket either. Cory Booker, possibly, but I think he has campaigned too much on race issues, where it may actively hurt the ticket were he on it.

A few possibilities that might balance out a Warren ticket:
Rep. Anthony G. Brown. He's retired military, former lt. governor of Maryland, son of immigrants and currently a congressman from Maryland. I've watched some videos of him speaking, and I like his style. Cons: Like Warren, he's an east coast blue-stater.

Anthony Foxx. Former mayor of Charlotte, NC, pretty successfully navigated the city from through hard economic times from what I've read. Also served as Obama's Transportation Secretary. He's in his mid-40s, so not too young, not too old. Might also help pick up North Carolina.

Rep. Colin Allred. Texan, upset long-time incumbent Rep. Pete Sessions in 2018. Civil rights lawyer, former pro football player (Titans), worked in HUD under Obama. Something of a moderate. He's my least favorite of these three, because a bit young (36) and we'd likely lose that seat back to the Republicans, but he's an interesting guy from what I've seen.

Maybe a Latino like Julian Castro would be a good pick too.

Anyway, I just wanted a place to discuss the Warren candidacy, so here it is.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 08-17-2019 at 12:04 PM.
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Old 08-17-2019, 12:24 PM
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I like her a lot. She is close to the top, if not my favorite candidate right now. I was worried about her political skills, but from what I've seen of her so far they're surprisingly strong, and seem well-suited to retail campaigning like in Iowa and NH. Most importantly, she really seems to be enjoying herself -- explaining ideas on how to make the country better seems to be something she genuinely loves to do.

We'll see.
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Old 08-17-2019, 12:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
Veep pick: I think if she were the nominee, she'd have to be very strategic about her running mate. On the one hand, I feel like there needs to be someone on the ticket that appeals to the white, working class voters in MI, WI, PA and OH, since that's not her natural constituency. On the other hand, maybe she can overcome that deficit with strong support from suburban voters and women and college educateds. But considering she's a white woman from MA, I don't think she can overlook the need to have a person of color on her ticket either. Cory Booker, possibly, but I think he has campaigned too much on race issues, where it may actively hurt the ticket were he on it.
I think there's at least as much room to be gained by any Dem nominee in the Midwestern states by increasing minority (especially AA) turnout as there is to be gained by wooing WWC voters.

In that vein, I'd love to see a Warren/Harris ticket.
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Old 08-17-2019, 12:53 PM
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She's my top magic-wand pick (if I could wave a magic wand and make whomever I wanted President, it'd be her). But she has a lot of convincing to do about her electability.
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Old 08-17-2019, 12:56 PM
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She's my top magic-wand pick (if I could wave a magic wand and make whomever I wanted President, it'd be her). But she has a lot of convincing to do about her electability.
This is me exactly.
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Old 08-17-2019, 01:59 PM
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The VP pick does very little I think. Maybe a point or two in the VPís home state and a bit of signifying. But little impact barring a Palin level horrific. Her choice should be a no gimmick someone ready to step and take over.

She is actually succeeding in connecting with working class whites. It surprises to be sure but she does. She can make the case that under Trump the very wealthiest have gobbled up a bigger and bigger share of power pie, leaving workers vulnerable for when the next downturn comes. And that she will fix that. Real systemic change that isnít burning the house down.

But while Biden enjoys a default state of being believed to be very likely to win, she is in a default state of not. Sheís having to make that sale in the early states. Thing is sheís succeeding. Those who hear her get convinced. Having to prove it makes her stronger.

Iím close to being sold, especially as Biden is not selling his own skills so well. Not quite there but close.
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Old 08-17-2019, 02:14 PM
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The VP pick does very little I think. Maybe a point or two in the VP’s home state and a bit of signifying. But little impact barring a Palin level horrific. Her choice should be a no gimmick someone ready to step and take over.
I disagree. The Biden pick put Obama over the top as it calmed the fears of working class whites, and the pick of Pence put Trump over the top as it calmed the fears of white evangelicals.

Warren on her own I don't think is 100% electable, but with the right veep, she very well could be. She's not gonna be strong with black voters or white working class whites, imo. She needs to fill in that gap somehow.

Quote:
She is actually succeeding in connecting with working class whites.
In Michigan? In Wisconsin? In Pennsylvania? The ones who voted for Obama then Trump? I don't buy it.
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Old 08-17-2019, 02:23 PM
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I'd vote for her if I could and think less of someone who could vote for her but won't.
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Old 08-17-2019, 02:52 PM
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Who since 2004 has won the White House by seeming electable? That concern seems a generation out of date.
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Old 08-17-2019, 02:54 PM
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Who since 2004 has won the White House by seeming electable? That concern seems a generation out of date.
We havent had the NEED to get a trump out of office.
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Old 08-17-2019, 03:33 PM
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We havent had the NEED to get a trump out of office.
That's a non sequitur. Yeah, we need to get him out of office. But the last two presidents that were elected were quintessentially unelectable: a black man in a country that had only ever elected white men, and then Trump.

Our electorate clearly doesn't care about electability.
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Old 08-17-2019, 03:42 PM
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She’s a dangerous central planner with major authoritarian tendencies. Her economic plan for large corporations is the single most damaging and primitive proposal I’ve seen from a modern American politician. Basically it’s as if Huey Long was a model for her and not a cautionary tale.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nat...hard-left/amp/

She seems like she just walked out of a dust bowl socialist gathering put on by methodist ministers. She seems like she should be wearing long skirts and a bonnet and telling us Jesus was a socialist. She seems like she should be on a soap box outside a saloon freestyling sermons on demon rum. She seems like she should be handing out pamphlets encouraging Papists to get abortions and driving wagons full of Indians to boarding school.

Is she capable of beating Trump? Yes. Is she the best one to do it? Definitely not.

Her nutty proposals have no chance of passing, which is one positive. She doesn’t talk about foreign policy at all. Where I’m from means I have no input on the next president, but she has very little going for her in my eyes.

The thing about her heritage calls into question her personal character as well.

Last edited by WillFarnaby; 08-17-2019 at 03:43 PM.
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Old 08-17-2019, 03:44 PM
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In point of fact Obama didn’t get Black voter support until Iowa whites voting for him demonstrated he was electable.

Many voters have cared each time. And how white voters in Iowa go has long been believed to be a good indicator of how they will go elsewhere.

Do we know that her economic populism message and economically challenged working class Oklahoma roots origin story will connect with non-college educated whites beyond Iowa and NH? No. We each speculate from the facts we have.

I am for now open to the possibility.
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Old 08-17-2019, 05:24 PM
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Sheís a dangerous central planner with major authoritarian tendencies. Her economic plan for large corporations is the single most damaging and primitive proposal Iíve seen from a modern American politician. Basically itís as if Huey Long was a model for her and not a cautionary tale.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nat...hard-left/amp/

She seems like she just walked out of a dust bowl socialist gathering put on by methodist ministers. She seems like she should be wearing long skirts and a bonnet and telling us Jesus was a socialist. She seems like she should be on a soap box outside a saloon freestyling sermons on demon rum. She seems like she should be handing out pamphlets encouraging Papists to get abortions and driving wagons full of Indians to boarding school.

Is she capable of beating Trump? Yes. Is she the best one to do it? Definitely not.

Her nutty proposals have no chance of passing, which is one positive. She doesnít talk about foreign policy at all. Where Iím from means I have no input on the next president, but she has very little going for her in my eyes.

The thing about her heritage calls into question her personal character as well.
We're going to build a wall and Mexico's going to pay for it
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Old 08-17-2019, 05:34 PM
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“The thing about her heritage calls into question her personal character as well.”

Oh, please.
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Old 08-17-2019, 06:14 PM
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Always liked Warren, I'd vote for her if she's the nominee. I still think she makes a perfect VP candidate. Pair her with Biden and it's a great ticket.
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Old 08-17-2019, 07:29 PM
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ďThe thing about her heritage calls into question her personal character as well.Ē

Oh, please.
It's more than offset by the conniptions she gives Libertarians, though.
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Old 08-17-2019, 07:37 PM
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The Biden pick put Obama over the top as it calmed the fears of working class whites, and the pick of Pence put Trump over the top as it calmed the fears of white evangelicals.

Warren on her own I don't think is 100% electable, but with the right veep, she very well could be. She's not gonna be strong with black voters or white working class whites, imo. She needs to fill in that gap somehow. ...
I agree with all this.

The "happy warrior" label that some are using about her campaign style seems both appropriate and likely to be helpful to her. (Who was the last pol that was used about -- Hubert Humphrey??)
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Old 08-17-2019, 08:09 PM
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We're going to build a wall and Mexico's going to pay for it
Letís make it a race to the bottom.
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Old 08-17-2019, 08:17 PM
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I’m going to go out on a limb and boldly declare that a fusion syndicalist/fascist takeover of every major corporation in the United States is worse than building/not-building any wall.
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Old 08-17-2019, 08:33 PM
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Iím going out on a limb and say that such is not part of any major Democrats proposals.
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Old 08-17-2019, 08:52 PM
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Warren + Abrams 2020

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Basically it’s as if Huey Long was a model for her and not a cautionary tale.
Things are quite far enough along that if Huey Long ends up with the nomination to run against Trump, I'll happily vote for him. Likewise Biden, Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg, and any of the other characters in this show.

Been liking Warren for awhile now though.
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Old 08-18-2019, 12:35 AM
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She seems like she just walked out of a dust bowl socialist gathering put on by methodist ministers. She seems like she should be wearing long skirts and a bonnet and telling us Jesus was a socialist. She seems like she should be on a soap box outside a saloon freestyling sermons on demon rum. She seems like she should be handing out pamphlets encouraging Papists to get abortions and driving wagons full of Indians to boarding school.
And you seem to be throwing shit at the wall to see if it sticks. Appreciate your concern. Gotta cite for any of these ascertations?

Happy, none of your picks have brand recognition, and therefore IMHO of dubious value as a ticket adder. One of Hillary's unforced errors was picking largely unknown Spanish speaking Jesuit Tim Kaine instead of demographic marketing (ahem pandering ahem) to a person of color, and it probably cost her the election (the election was so close in the battlegrounds, that there were several factors that could have swung it).

Warren is growing on me. She's quite the policy wonk. Like all policy wonks, there are a few policies that I don't like (ex. it should be medicare for all that want it). As an ex Lehman Brother, the President absolutely should put controls in place on Wall Street to prevent another bailout from mainstream America because they are a buncha greedy fucks with pitiful oversight.

It's unfortunate that Warren isn't a decade or two younger (and I write this as someone pushing 60).
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Old 08-18-2019, 06:29 AM
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Keep the focus on Warren, please.

Let's not get hijacked into more libertarianistic foolishness.
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Old 08-18-2019, 06:37 AM
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That said, the important takeaway about Warren isn't that she's 'electable' or how good she is at 'retail politics'.

The big thing is how well run her campaign appears to be. She's slowly and methodically moved up in the polls over the last few months in the early states. Her team is good, well-organized and professional. That speaks a great deal about her, her ability to hire good people, and how much they're here for the long haul. We saw the same thing in 2008 with Obama's team. Professionalism counts for a lot in a primary season.

Only two candidates have moved up in the polls consistently since the first of the year, Warren and Buttigieg (whom I saw yesterday). Both of them have approached it as a process and not a series of big events.

In Iowa, Biden is about where he was six months ago or losing ground (29% to 28%). Sanders is the same (15%-17%). Ditto Harris (7% - 8%).

Warren? From 11% to 19%. Buttigieg? From who? to 13%.

If she keeps it up she'll take this thing.
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Old 08-18-2019, 07:09 AM
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Quoth Happy Lendervedder:

Warren on her own I don't think is 100% electable, but with the right veep, she very well could be.
No candidate is 100% electable. If 2016 taught us anything, it should be that. I think that Warren is probably over 50% electable, vs. Trump. But I'd like a lot better chance than that.
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Old 08-18-2019, 07:58 AM
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I would be quite pleased to vote for Warren on a ballot pitting her against Trump. More than pleased and satisfied to do that.

Last edited by bobot; 08-18-2019 at 07:59 AM.
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Old 08-18-2019, 08:29 AM
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That said, the important takeaway about Warren isn't that she's 'electable' or how good she is at 'retail politics ...

... Only two candidates have moved up in the polls consistently since the first of the year, Warren and Buttigieg (whom I saw yesterday). Both of them have approached it as a process and not a series of big events.

In Iowa, Biden is about where he was six months ago or losing ground (29% to 28%). Sanders is the same (15%-17%). Ditto Harris (7% - 8%).

Warren? From 11% to 19%. Buttigieg? From who? to 13%.

If she keeps it up she'll take this thing.
Buttigieg up consistently? Are you looking at the same polling data the rest of us are? He had a nice run up for a bit but heís more recently dropped to 3 to 5%. Really Warren is alone in that class.

No one guarantees a win. Believing 538 Clinton was 2 or 3 to 1 favorite. If itís Warren will it be better or worse odds than that? Would Biden be much better or worse by then?

You are right that some of that is the quality build of an organization but some of that is ... other things.

But yeah, she has a strong organization in place which will amplify her polling numbers in the early states.
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Old 08-18-2019, 08:53 AM
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Keep the focus on Warren, please.

Let's not get hijacked into more libertarianistic foolishness.
Every single sentence of my post references Warren, but thanks for your uncomprehending concern.

Last edited by WillFarnaby; 08-18-2019 at 08:53 AM.
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Old 08-18-2019, 09:07 AM
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Gotta agree with Will Farnaby on this one (a rare situation). I don't think "libertarianistic foolishness" is really a thing to put in a mod note either. Seems kind of rude, regardless of where you stand on that issue. And he really was talking about Warren.
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Old 08-18-2019, 09:15 AM
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If you add up her polling numbers, debate performances and organization, Warren does seem to be the best-performing candidate but I think people underestimate the gigantic problem her proposal to abolish private health insurance will pose in the general election. She may find a way to walk back from it but it won't be easy and if she runs on it, I think it could single-handedly bring about her defeat. It will be an existential threat to the health insurance industry and they will orchestrate a truly gigantic campaign against it. It will freak out tens of millions of suburban voters who are perfectly happy with their private health insurance and these are precisely the people that the Democrats have succeeded in attracting in the last few years.
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Old 08-18-2019, 09:33 AM
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Who are these suburbanites who are perfectly happy with their health insurance?

"OK, we need you to get an x-ray. We don't do that here"
"Umm, so where do I go?"
"Here's a list of radiology offices in the area. Choose one..."
*calls*
"Yes we can see you if you come in. May I have your insurance info..."
*gives*
"Oh, we don't take that"

"Your prescription has been sent in to your pharmacy"
*goes*
"The insurance info we have on you has expired. May I have your insurance card?"
*gives*
"Oh, it's a different plan than you had before"
"Yeah, my employer switched us"
*pharmacist makes some calls*
"This medication isn't covered by your plan's A list, they want you to try this other medication first. I'm going to have to call your doctor to approve the substitution"
*pharmacist makes more calls*
"Your doctor really wants you on the medication originally prescribed. You're going to have to go back to your doctor and have them make out a request"

*later, goes to a specialist's office for the first time, feeling awful sick*
"Oh hi, you must be SoAndSo. Please fill out these forms and we'll call you shortly"
*page 2 asks a dozen++ questions about the health insurance. Plan name, plan type, and so on, address of the insurance carrier*
* peering at card trying to figure out whether the phrase at upper right is the "plan name" or if it's the phrase at lower right *
* submits paperwork *
"Oh, from them we need a written referral. If you want I can call them up and see if they'll FAX it"
"Don't bother, they're closed today, I guess I'll have to come back. #$@!"
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Old 08-18-2019, 09:43 AM
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I would happily vote for Warren. I prefer her to Bernie and almost every other Democratic candidate, except Mayor Pete.
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Old 08-18-2019, 09:46 AM
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Who are these suburbanites who are perfectly happy with their health insurance?
Most Americans Still Rate Their Healthcare Quite Positively
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As the incoming Congress prepares to debate further changes to the U.S. healthcare system, solid majorities of Americans rate the coverage (69%) and quality (80%) of the healthcare they personally receive as "excellent" or "good."
[...]
Positive ratings of both quality and coverage increase with age: Young adults have the lowest average ratings for both measures, and seniors offer the highest ratings. Perceptions are also related to income: The higher the income bracket, the more likely an individual is to rate their healthcare quality and coverage positively. Meanwhile, whites maintain higher ratings than nonwhites on each element of healthcare.
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Old 08-18-2019, 09:50 AM
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https://news.gallup.com/poll/245195/...ositively.aspx
85% on private insurance rate their quality of healthcare as excellent/good and 70% rate their healthcare coverage similarly.
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Old 08-18-2019, 10:04 AM
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The polling is pretty clear: voters want a private coverage option and many would opt for it. Including among likely Democratic primary voters.

My WAG is that she tacks back to the “many paths to get there” position in the general: the goal is to eliminate it by offering the public option which is so superior that eventually all opt for it, by outcompeting them.

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Old 08-18-2019, 10:04 AM
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I have concerns about her electability. I don't think single payer is going to play well, it needs to be a public option so that those who like their insurance aren't going to fear losing it. If she would adopt Biden's view of health insurance, then she'd win in a walk. She has many strengths. First of all, she's the only one running who wants to be president, the others think they should be president. She enjoys the campaign trail and she's terrific in working a crowd. People will vote perhaps not for the one they want to have a beer with, but the one who seems like he/she's happy to be with them. Donald is happy to be with only the base who turns up at his rallies, Warren is equally happy to be with enthusiastic, indifferent, or hostile crowds. Her workmanlike approach to the campaign is paying dividends, she's patiently plodding along and sticking to business. To this point, she has easily run the best campaign.
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Old 08-18-2019, 10:10 AM
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The polling is pretty clear: voters want a private coverage option and many would opt for it. Including among likely Democratic primary voters.

My WAG is that she tacks back to the ďmany paths to get thereĒ position in the general: the goal is to eliminate it by offering the public option which is so superior that eventually all opt for it, by outcompeting them.
That's the way to do it. Just open up Medicare to all regardless of age. Do that and eventually private insurance will wither away.

Alternately, it will adapt and become more effective.
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Old 08-18-2019, 10:21 AM
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I suppose it would not function well as a popular message but what I'd like would be more like MedicAID for all. If you want to see a health plan that actually works (or at least used to work) extremely well for the people who have it, that's the model to go with. There aren't many aspects to my experience as a profoundly poor and homeless person that I look back on and say "wish it was still that way" but when I had Medicaid if I needed medical care I went in and they gave it to me, period, end of story. Zero paperwork. No copayments. No "gaps".
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Old 08-18-2019, 11:26 AM
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https://news.gallup.com/poll/245195/...ositively.aspx
85% on private insurance rate their quality of healthcare as excellent/good and 70% rate their healthcare coverage similarly.
It's possible to rate your own healthcare positively but the entire system negatively. If you believe that your own costs are good because you're fairly healthy, you can still worry about what catastrophic illness would do you to your family's finances, and think that an overhaul of the system is the best approach.

Personally I'm pretty healthy and have a healthy family; I've paid less than $100 to my GP this year total, and family costs are in those lines. But a catastrophic illness, even if we made a complete physical recovery, could bankrupt us.
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Old 08-18-2019, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Left Hand of Dorkness View Post
It's possible to rate your own healthcare positively but the entire system negatively. If you believe that your own costs are good because you're fairly healthy, you can still worry about what catastrophic illness would do you to your family's finances, and think that an overhaul of the system is the best approach.
That's exactly what his link shows. People are mostly positive on their own coverage, negative on "the system". That's why taking on the system is good politics but not simultaneously taking away anyone's current plan is not.

Last edited by CarnalK; 08-18-2019 at 12:18 PM.
  #42  
Old 08-18-2019, 01:08 PM
dalej42 is offline
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My current list is:
Pete Buttigieg
Kamala Harris
Elizabeth Warren

Warren is really gaining steam among my Twitter bubble, which I admit is a very self selected sample.

‘Elizabeth Warren has a plan for that’ is usually trending on Twitter.
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  #43  
Old 08-18-2019, 01:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
That's exactly what his link shows. People are mostly positive on their own coverage, negative on "the system". That's why taking on the system is good politics but not simultaneously taking away anyone's current plan is not.
Yeah, I understand what the link shows--but your conclusion is wrong.

I'm reasonably positive on my own insurance, but that doesn't mean I think it's the best possible world. If you take away my insurance in the process of providing universal health coverage, I'd be very pleased--because under our current system, my own coverage could suddenly turn to shit.
  #44  
Old 08-18-2019, 03:01 PM
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Despite claims to the contrary, Elizabeth Warren has her finger on the pulse of the American electorate.

This fact was brought home to me by a sponsored ad that just appeared on my Facebook feed, in which Warren urges prospective voters to enter a "Have A Beer* With Elizabeth Warren" contest and announces that her favorite beer is Michelob Ultra.

I would enter (no purchase donation is required), but have trouble getting past the incongruity of hoisting a beer with Ms. Warren and watching her motion over an aide after every tiny sip to wipe that icky foam off her lip.

I'd sooner go drinking with Hillary Clinton.

*or other beverage. The winner also gets two nights' stay in a hotel for some reason, maybe to sleep off the effects of the beer.

Last edited by Jackmannii; 08-18-2019 at 03:04 PM.
  #45  
Old 08-18-2019, 03:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Left Hand of Dorkness View Post
Yeah, I understand what the link shows--but your conclusion is wrong.

I'm reasonably positive on my own insurance, but that doesn't mean I think it's the best possible world. If you take away my insurance in the process of providing universal health coverage, I'd be very pleased--because under our current system, my own coverage could suddenly turn to shit.
Exactly. I pay quite a bit in premiums. For that I get a $3000 deductible. My company puts $2000 in a HSA type thing, but 1 ER visit can easily wipe that out and have me paying $1000 out of pocket.

Then there's the jumping through hoops to get mail order pharmacy set up for my wife's meds because they wouldn't pay for a regular pharmacy anymore.

The only thing that saves me from really paying out is I get all my care through the VA.

If all my premiums went to taxes instead to pay for healthcare and I never had to deal with another insurance company, I'd be very happy.
  #46  
Old 08-18-2019, 03:23 PM
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I’m surprised Warren’s support for a wealth tax isn’t immediately disqualifying in the minds of rational voters.
  #47  
Old 08-18-2019, 04:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Left Hand of Dorkness View Post
That's a non sequitur. Yeah, we need to get him out of office. But the last two presidents that were elected were quintessentially unelectable: a black man in a country that had only ever elected white men, and then Trump.

Our electorate clearly doesn't care about electability.
They got elected, thereby, ipso facto, they had electability.
  #48  
Old 08-18-2019, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by AHunter3 View Post
Who are these suburbanites who are perfectly happy with their health insurance?

"OK, we need you to get an x-ray. We don't do that here"
..
"Your prescription has been sent in to your pharmacy"
...

*later, goes to a specialist's office for the first time, feeling awful sick*
.."
Xray- Down the hall to the left.
Pharmacy- ground floor.
Specialist- another office, 15 minutes away. Here's your appt.
  #49  
Old 08-18-2019, 04:35 PM
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Iím surprised Warrenís support for a wealth tax isnít immediately disqualifying in the minds of rational voters.
She's running for the Democratic nomination.

Regards,
Shodan
  #50  
Old 08-18-2019, 05:33 PM
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I was lukewarm about Warren- it seems everyone is espousing ideas that sound fine but don't stand up to scrutiny- but her (and Harris) using the 5 year anniversary of Ferguson to repeat the lie that Micheal Brown was murdered is just chumming for votes.

It doesn't appear to have hurt her support here, but it feels like Hilary Lite, saying something she (hopefully) doesn't believe to get unearned support.

Last edited by sps49sd; 08-18-2019 at 05:33 PM.
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