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  #401  
Old 02-20-2019, 08:29 PM
Ulf the Unwashed is offline
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Originally Posted by Hawkeyeop View Post
Sure lets talk about Pedroia, because I don't think he shows what you think he shows. Machado is 26. Pedroia was 30 when he signed his contract. So in a few years when you think the Padres will want to move on, he will just reaching the age when Pedroira's contract started. When Machado is Pedroia's current age he will be entering the last year of his contract.

Those 4 prime years are a huge difference. To illistrate lets take another look at Pedroia. Per BR, Pedroia was worth 22.6 WAR from 26-29. Since he signed his contract he has earned 13.9 WAR. His contract would look way better if it started earlier and ended this year. I think if the Red Sox paid $300 million over 10 years to get 36.5, they would have been perfectly fine with it. Given how much higher revenue is now, I think the Padres would be quite satisfied.

And of course there is plenty of upside. In ten years Machado is still younger than Cano who has not shown any signs of decline. Machado could put up a couple of mvp type seasons in the short term and age gracefully. There is a risk in ten year contracts, but I don't see this as particularly risky. He hits a team need, he will provide some highlights in down years, and still be fairly young when the Padres are ready to contend, which may be sooner then you think.
I agree with all of this.

I've been intrigued this off-season by what feels like an enormous amount of negativity toward Machado and Harper. Issues in the clubhouse, issues with hustle, issues with pigheadedness, issues with defense.

I know Harper had a pretty bad season defensively and only hit .249, but he still hit 34 homers and walked 130 times; I know Machado maybe shouldn't be playing short and doesn't hit quite like Mike trout, but the guy's been averaging about 6 WAR a year for the last four. And they're both still quite young. We're not exactly talking <name your favorite lousy hitter> here.

I don't know where the pessimism comes from (in my more conspiratorial moments I think it comes from team owners trying to tamp prices down), but it's weird. Of course you take a risk when you sign someone to a ten year contract. Of course you run a risk when you sign a player who's had surgeries and who doesn't always hustle... I'd never say these guys are locks. But where the idea comes from that they're dogs, I don't know.

--I'll tell you who the whole Machado thing reminds me of, and that's Adrian beltre. It's easy to forget, but a LOT of people were down on Beltre when he left Los Angeles for Seattle after 2004 (right after his age 25 season, we might note). After some decent years (but not nearly the equal of Machado thus far), Beltre finally put it all together in his last year in LA, with a WAR of over 9. Seattle signed him to a big contract, and many commentators were quite critical of the Mariners. There were questions about hustle, there were questions about Beltre turning it on for his walk year... and when he regressed to a WAR of 3.2 in his first year with Seattle the questions intensified.

Well, times have changed, and we know how that turned out. Beltre is now clearly a Grand Old Man of baseball, as he should be. And I'm certainly not saying that Machado is going to do what Beltre did--if nothing else, Beltre was really great in his mid-thirties in a way few other players have been. But in terms of age right now, in terms of position, in terms of career to date, in terms of some of the criticisms--Beltre seems like a pretty decent comp for Machado. From 2005 to 2014, ages 26-35, Beltre had 54 WAR, or just about exactly what it took David Ortiz 20 years to compile. --If Machado can come anywhere near this, his contract will be a huge success.
  #402  
Old 02-21-2019, 07:52 AM
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All that's true, and still doesn't account for the continuation of steady increases in MLB revenue. $300M seems inconceivable today, the way $30M seemed inconceivable just a decade or two ago, but how will it look in 10 years? It may be a bargain.
  #403  
Old 02-21-2019, 10:54 AM
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Look at a guy like Adam Jones, still unsigned, no idea what he's going to get. But he's probably going to put up about a 2 WAR season. You have to wonder, can I get that from a much younger guy at a much lower cost who might even have a much higher upside? Andrew McCutcheon, a guy with about the same performance expectations as Jones, looks pretty smart to jump at the Phillies offer he got a couple months ago.
  #404  
Old 02-21-2019, 12:19 PM
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I agree with all of this.

I've been intrigued this off-season by what feels like an enormous amount of negativity toward Machado and Harper. Issues in the clubhouse, issues with hustle, issues with pigheadedness, issues with defense.

I know Harper had a pretty bad season defensively and only hit .249, but he still hit 34 homers and walked 130 times; I know Machado maybe shouldn't be playing short and doesn't hit quite like Mike trout, but the guy's been averaging about 6 WAR a year for the last four. And they're both still quite young. We're not exactly talking <name your favorite lousy hitter> here.

I don't know where the pessimism comes from (in my more conspiratorial moments I think it comes from team owners trying to tamp prices down), but it's weird. Of course you take a risk when you sign someone to a ten year contract. Of course you run a risk when you sign a player who's had surgeries and who doesn't always hustle... I'd never say these guys are locks. But where the idea comes from that they're dogs, I don't know.

--I'll tell you who the whole Machado thing reminds me of, and that's Adrian beltre. It's easy to forget, but a LOT of people were down on Beltre when he left Los Angeles for Seattle after 2004 (right after his age 25 season, we might note). After some decent years (but not nearly the equal of Machado thus far), Beltre finally put it all together in his last year in LA, with a WAR of over 9. Seattle signed him to a big contract, and many commentators were quite critical of the Mariners. There were questions about hustle, there were questions about Beltre turning it on for his walk year... and when he regressed to a WAR of 3.2 in his first year with Seattle the questions intensified.

Well, times have changed, and we know how that turned out. Beltre is now clearly a Grand Old Man of baseball, as he should be. And I'm certainly not saying that Machado is going to do what Beltre did--if nothing else, Beltre was really great in his mid-thirties in a way few other players have been. But in terms of age right now, in terms of position, in terms of career to date, in terms of some of the criticisms--Beltre seems like a pretty decent comp for Machado. From 2005 to 2014, ages 26-35, Beltre had 54 WAR, or just about exactly what it took David Ortiz 20 years to compile. --If Machado can come anywhere near this, his contract will be a huge success.
WHOA slow down Tex! You dont fire a broadside at Ortiz and get away with it. Now do an avg of WAR per year for top ten players.

Im gonna guess its

DH: 1. Ortiz

3B: 1. Beltre (despite Beltres injuries)

So...nvm.

Edit: I never forgave the Sox letting Beltre walk. I dont care where you play Beltre to keep him.

Last edited by Dale Sams; 02-21-2019 at 12:20 PM.
  #405  
Old 02-21-2019, 12:58 PM
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The Padres may be just as thrilled about having Machado around for years 6-10 as the Yankees were in the final years with A-Rod.

I'm glad the Yankees didn't get him. He's the kind of guy that's much more fun to root against than for.

Judge says he'd move to center to get Harper. I say screw that. Yankees have a glut of outfielders and relievers. The number one thing to get is a starting pitcher. Or two.
  #406  
Old 02-21-2019, 01:15 PM
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Woah, woah, woah. A glut? The Yankees biggest strength is their bullpen, but they don't have too many relievers. As for outfielders, I don't want Harper either and Judge wouldn't be moved to center (not with Aaron Hicks on the roster) but rather to left. The Yanks aren't really that deep in the outfield; last season Shane Robinson had to be promoted for 25 games and it wasn't pretty. Hopefully Clint Frazier will be healthy this year and good enough to send Brett Gardner to the bench.
  #407  
Old 02-21-2019, 01:19 PM
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WHOA slow down Tex! You dont fire a broadside at Ortiz and get away with it. Now do an avg of WAR per year for top ten players.

Im gonna guess its

DH: 1. Ortiz

3B: 1. Beltre (despite Beltres injuries)

So...nvm.

Edit: I never forgave the Sox letting Beltre walk. I dont care where you play Beltre to keep him.
I must admit I'm not quite sure what you're driving at here

I used Ortiz as a comp because

a) he and Beltre were briefly teammates

b) the WAR figures were almost identical (Beltre about 54 in 10 years, Ortiz 55 career)

c) Ortiz took much longer to do it than the other recent/current players in that "balllpark."

For instance, Jeff Kent has about the same WAR but in 17 seasons. Joe Mauer, same deal, 15 seasons. Ian Kinsler's a couple points better with just 13 seasons. Joey Votto's a little better even than that in 12.

It makes Beltre's 10 years seem that much better when stacked up, not next to Votto's 12, but to Ortiz's 20. That's all!

[And yes, I know Ortiz's seasons weren't all full seasons. Still, there were 20 of them... Just sounds better this way.]

Last edited by Ulf the Unwashed; 02-21-2019 at 01:21 PM.
  #408  
Old 02-21-2019, 01:42 PM
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...

Judge says he'd move to center to get Harper. I say screw that. Yankees have a glut of outfielders and relievers. The number one thing to get is a starting pitcher. Or two.
Yanks only have a glut of Outfielders if you consider Ellsbury one. But I agree, we don't need Harper. He doesn't make a lot of sense for the Yanks.

As to relievers, no way do we have a glut, we have a strength of relievers.
  #409  
Old 02-21-2019, 02:36 PM
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The Padres may be just as thrilled about having Machado around for years 6-10 as the Yankees were in the final years with A-Rod.

I'm glad the Yankees didn't get him. He's the kind of guy that's much more fun to root against than for.

Judge says he'd move to center to get Harper. I say screw that. Yankees have a glut of outfielders and relievers. The number one thing to get is a starting pitcher. Or two.
Who knows, maybe the Yankees would have a trade up their sleeve to accommodate such a move.
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  #410  
Old 02-21-2019, 02:42 PM
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As we all know, there is no such thing as enough pitching.
  #411  
Old 02-21-2019, 03:15 PM
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I mean, if you read his entire quote, that isn't what he said. Makes a better headline that way, though, I suppose.
What about that do you think is inaccurate?

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Machado has been criticized this postseason as he has stepped into the playoff spotlight ó and revealed to the baseball world he takes plays off. In Saturdayís Game 2 of the NLCS, the Dodgers star half-heartedly jogged to first after he hit a ball into the shortstop hole, and what could have been at the least a close play ended up an easy out.
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Obviously Iím not going to change, Iím not the type of player thatís going to be ĎJohnny Hustle,í and run down the line and slide to first base and Ö you know, whatever can happen. Thatís just not my personality, thatís not my cup of tea, thatís not who I am.Ē

On the field, he is an admitted loafer. In the video room, he transforms into the critic staring at a player giving less than 100 percent.
Seems like that is exactly what he said.
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  #412  
Old 02-21-2019, 04:58 PM
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The Padres may be just as thrilled about having Machado around for years 6-10 as the Yankees were in the final years with A-Rod
Well if Machado opts out in five years and the padres give another 10 year contract that will probably happen. Of course if you want to compare Machado to Arodís first big deal in Texas signed at a similar age, that would be a great outcome for SD.
  #413  
Old 02-21-2019, 05:04 PM
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What about that do you think is inaccurate?





Seems like that is exactly what he said.
You might want to try reading the rest of the article for context. Machado talks about he know he isnít good at this aspect of baseball and that while he will never be great, he needs to get better. Not exactly a discouraging sentiment.

By the way, if Iím paying a player 300 million, I really donít want him blowing out a hamstring on a routine groundout. He needs to get better at recognizing game situations, but I also donít think he should try to be Johnny Hustle either.
  #414  
Old 02-21-2019, 06:33 PM
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Check out the new CC Sabathia.
  #415  
Old 02-21-2019, 06:37 PM
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Check out the new CC Sabathia.
Whoa. Good for him!
  #416  
Old 02-21-2019, 06:48 PM
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Whoa. Good for him!
That's as dramatic as Kevin Smith's weight change.
  #417  
Old 02-21-2019, 07:37 PM
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My thinking regarding Yankees' outfield depth:
Hicks and Gardner should be more than enough in center, providing both stay healthy.

If Frazier can stay healthy, he's the logical choice in left. I still think he's a diamond in the rough. If not, Stanton can play left.

Judge in right, alternating with Stanton if Frazier can cover left.

I'm perhaps optimistic about Frazier. I still have hopes for Florial. I just don't see the need to import more outfielders.

Ellsbury I think is done.

In my opinion, what killed the team last year was that for most of the year, Sanchez was an automatic out. Plus Andujar is woefully inadquate at third.
  #418  
Old 02-21-2019, 08:49 PM
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WHOA slow down Tex! You dont fire a broadside at Ortiz and get away with it. Now do an avg of WAR per year for top ten players.

Im gonna guess its

DH: 1. Ortiz

3B: 1. Beltre (despite Beltres injuries)

So...nvm.

Edit: I never forgave the Sox letting Beltre walk. I dont care where you play Beltre to keep him.
Just as an FYI, I did look it up.

Among DHs or those who spent a good chunk of time as DH, three guys clearly outrank Ortiz in the WAR per year department:

Frank Thomas 73.9 WAR, 19 years = 3.9/year
Edgar Martinez 68.4 WAR, 18 years = 3.8/year
Paul Molitor 75.7 WAR, 21 years = 3.6/year
Ortiz 55.3 WAR, 20 years = 2.8/year

Not especially close either.

As for Beltre: 95.7 in 21 years, average 4.6 a year. He trails only Schmidt (who averaged 5.9, whoa) and Mathews and Boggs, and Alex Rodriguez if you want to consider him a 3B; he's ahead of Brett and Jones, and no one else is really close. Of course there've been a zillion third basemen in MLB history, so top five is really, really good.

Last edited by Ulf the Unwashed; 02-21-2019 at 08:51 PM.
  #419  
Old 02-21-2019, 09:23 PM
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Just as an FYI, I did look it up.

Among DHs or those who spent a good chunk of time as DH, three guys clearly outrank Ortiz in the WAR per year department:

Frank Thomas 73.9 WAR, 19 years = 3.9/year
Edgar Martinez 68.4 WAR, 18 years = 3.8/year
Paul Molitor 75.7 WAR, 21 years = 3.6/year
Ortiz 55.3 WAR, 20 years = 2.8/year

Not especially close either.

As for Beltre: 95.7 in 21 years, average 4.6 a year. He trails only Schmidt (who averaged 5.9, whoa) and Mathews and Boggs, and Alex Rodriguez if you want to consider him a 3B; he's ahead of Brett and Jones, and no one else is really close. Of course there've been a zillion third basemen in MLB history, so top five is really, really good.
Nice. Thanks for checking that
  #420  
Old 02-22-2019, 12:23 AM
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Here's yet another problem, affecting both pace-of-play and the overall quality of the game:

The number of foul balls has increased 12% since 1998.

Last year the number of strikeouts surpassed the number of hits for the first time. Two years ago, also for the first time, there were more foul balls than balls put into play. However, the number of foul outs is way down.

Quote:
In 2003, there were 4,372 foul outs. That number has fallen off dramatically, reaching a record low 3,262 in 2016 and hitting 3,450 last season.
Why?

Quote:
An increase in foul balls and a decline in foul outs may seem paradoxical, but the reason is simple: Playing surfaces are shrinking. In comparing 21 current stadiums with their immediate predecessor, FanGraphs found that fair territory had decreased by 1.4 percent, but foul territory decreased by 20.5 percent, or about 5,500 square feet on average.
20.5 percent!

Baseball has some interesting issues, but this looks like one without a solution.
  #421  
Old 02-22-2019, 07:57 AM
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So less foul area means fewer fouls caught for outs? I don't know. I watch a lot of baseball and it seems to me that the number of foul flies that land in the first few rows of seats isn't that high. Seems like a lot more are liners that wouldn't be caught no matter how much room there was or those that go very quickly to the screen behind home. Sure, you get a lot more fouls caught for outs in Oakland but even if every park was built like Oakland the game is still too slow. I think it's the batters fussing with their gloves every pitch plus the ever-lengthening inning breaks.
  #422  
Old 02-22-2019, 08:17 AM
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Well, 1,000 foul outs per season over 2,430 games means less than one every 2 games. That seems about right to me (particularly with pop fouls that land directly behind home plate).

I've read a few articles about it, and while pace of play has gone down it's largely pitching changes (and the associated commercial breaks) and increased breaks between innings that drove the overall game length up. I do like the idea of a pitch clock and think it will eventually become no big deal at all. Just having the clock makes everyone aware of just how slow they are being and puts the emphasis where it should be - timely ABs.
  #423  
Old 02-22-2019, 08:41 AM
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Baseball has some interesting issues, but this looks like one without a solution.
Oh, there are solutions. How about a rule that says that after the count gets to 2 strikes, any three consecutive foul balls equals a strike. That would put an end to the 21 pitch, all foul nonsense and change strategy a bit.
  #424  
Old 02-22-2019, 01:59 PM
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Spit take.

That 10 mill Mookie won in arbitration. And the 20 mill he gets this year *he* agreed to without going to arbitration. I'm also pretty sure (certainly could be wrong) that 20mill is the most a fifth year player has ever made. (Non multi-year contract like Trout)

Harper got 13 mill in his fifth year. Machado got 11 mill.
Did Harper have to go to arbitration? Did Machado?

Mookie had to go to arbitration and listen to why the team didn't think he was worth 10 million. It would serve the Red Sox right if Mookie signed with the Nats during free agency. That is totally what he should do, I have nothing but the best interests of baseball and Mookie Betts in mind when I say that. Not a single ulterior motive in sight.
  #425  
Old 02-22-2019, 02:08 PM
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The Betts example is actually pretty illustrative. On the FA market his projected value for 2019 is likely worth, at a minimum, $40M (and probably more). So even with the highest arb-5 agreement ever he is at least 50% underpaid relative to what he would make as a FA.

His choices are to take that and hope to get a big FA contract in a few years or sign a long-term contract now and lock in below-market compensation for more security (guaranteed multi-year). Either way he will make a ton of money but you can see why if the big FA contract becomes less likely he could feel like he's being squeezed by ownership.
If we are going to stop paying veterans we should turn the arbitration years into something like a waiver system.
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Old 02-22-2019, 02:13 PM
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Right, but what would their demands be? Eliminate the luxury tax and revenue sharing? So many teams are far below the luxury tax threshold that I don't think it's a factor for unsigned free agents.
Start free agency when arbitration starts right now.

Increase the minimum pay for minor league players.

Too many teams are relying on their grossly underpaid farm system to produce cheap young athletes for them.
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Old 02-22-2019, 02:24 PM
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any three consecutive foul balls equals a strike.
Or a walk.
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Old 02-22-2019, 02:36 PM
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Or a walk.
Has to be a strike, because the batter's swinging.

Something like that just might bring back the knuckleball!
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:11 PM
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If we are going to stop paying veterans we should turn the arbitration years into something like a waiver system.
Or maybe at least allow restricted free agency for the current arbitration years (or is that what you mean by a "waiver system"). I think I read that this was offered by the owners during the 1994 strike but rejected back then. Other teams trying to poach young talent (by paying them market value) might encourage those "rebuilding" teams to not go "full tank" and should guarantee at least one good pay day for most players that reach the majors.

One concern is that a smaller window in which to build a team with young talent might make it into more of a "haves v. have-nots" league.
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Old 02-22-2019, 05:23 PM
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Oh, there are solutions. How about a rule that says that after the count gets to 2 strikes, any three consecutive foul balls equals a strike. That would put an end to the 21 pitch, all foul nonsense and change strategy a bit.
So on a full count, the batter hits three consecutive foul balls and he's out. That should bring some genuine excitement to the fabled bottom of the ninth, two outs, bases loaded scenario.
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Old 02-22-2019, 11:46 PM
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Did Harper have to go to arbitration? Did Machado?

Mookie had to go to arbitration and listen to why the team didn't think he was worth 10 million. It would serve the Red Sox right if Mookie signed with the Nats during free agency. That is totally what he should do, I have nothing but the best interests of baseball and Mookie Betts in mind when I say that. Not a single ulterior motive in sight.
Thats not what happened. The Red Sox sluffed the arb process cause they didnt want to make Mookie mad. So what they did was to try and prove that Kris Bryant (who made 10.75 mill) was better than Mookie.

They didnt go in and point out all the things wrong with Mookie....they pointed out all the things great about Kris. And then just merely said, "Mookie didnt have as good a year so hes not worth ten mill."

It didnt work, and Im sure the Sox didnt lose any sleep over it
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Old 02-23-2019, 11:04 AM
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So on a full count, the batter hits three consecutive foul balls and he's out. That should bring some genuine excitement to the fabled bottom of the ninth, two outs, bases loaded scenario.
If you can't hit it square, you don't deserve to be there.
  #433  
Old 02-24-2019, 03:15 PM
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Has to be a strike, because the batter's swinging.

Something like that just might bring back the knuckleball!
Why does it HAVE to be a single. I mean if we are changing the rules of what a foul ball is, why can't we call it a ground rule single. I like this better than starting players on second base.

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  #434  
Old 02-24-2019, 03:18 PM
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Thats not what happened. The Red Sox sluffed the arb process cause they didnt want to make Mookie mad. So what they did was to try and prove that Kris Bryant (who made 10.75 mill) was better than Mookie.

They didnt go in and point out all the things wrong with Mookie....they pointed out all the things great about Kris. And then just merely said, "Mookie didnt have as good a year so hes not worth ten mill."

It didnt work, and Im sure the Sox didnt lose any sleep over it
Do you have a cite? Because i remember people saying that Mookie was not happy about the arb process last year.
  #435  
Old 02-24-2019, 03:19 PM
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So it's looking more and more like Bryce Harper is going to Philly.
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Old 02-24-2019, 06:13 PM
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Jon Heyman of SI claims Harper could still be going to any number of many teams, but of course Heyman has a long history of making claims that

1. Are of unclear sourcing, and
2. Happen to coincide with the financial interests of Scott Boras.
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Old 02-24-2019, 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi View Post
Do you have a cite? Because i remember people saying that Mookie was not happy about the arb process last year.
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red...ry-arbitration

It says "MLB Rumors" but has a quote.

Do you have a cite on him being unhappy? My impression was he knows its a business.
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:03 AM
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The Yankees have apparently extended Aaron Hicks for 7 years at $70M. Seems like a really good deal for the team. A lot of years, but not breaking the bank. I'd feel a hell of a lot better about signing Hicks at those numbers than Harper at $300M+.
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Old 02-25-2019, 12:02 PM
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The Yankees have apparently extended Aaron Hicks for 7 years at $70M. Seems like a really good deal for the team. A lot of years, but not breaking the bank. I'd feel a hell of a lot better about signing Hicks at those numbers than Harper at $300M+.
Seems like a good deal at that price for the Yanks. It is through age 35 but these days $10 million per year is fairly cheap, especially for the caliber of player he is with his defense. Apparently, there is also a Yankee held option year for 2026.
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Old 02-25-2019, 12:42 PM
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The Yankees have apparently extended Aaron Hicks for 7 years at $70M. Seems like a really good deal for the team. A lot of years, but not breaking the bank. I'd feel a hell of a lot better about signing Hicks at those numbers than Harper at $300M+.
I guess that answers my question of whether they think Clint Frazier can play CF....
Not a bad signing, hard to get super excited about though.
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Old 02-25-2019, 03:28 PM
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Seems like a good deal at that price for the Yanks. It is through age 35 but these days $10 million per year is fairly cheap, especially for the caliber of player he is with his defense. Apparently, there is also a Yankee held option year for 2026.
I do also think this is good deal for the Yankees because it looks like pretty good upside and not a ton of downside. But the more I think about it I'm not sure Hicks would have done much better on the FA market. I mean, that's probably why he agreed to this deal in the first place. Who knows, he might have his best year yet and could have commanded $15M a year, but I'd say it's unlikely.

Reports are Philly is the only team talking long term deal with Bryce Harper. So just sign and lets move on with our lives. Reminds me a bit of the JD Martinez saga last year. We knew he was going to Boston, just sign the deal already. Matter of fact, tomorrow is the one year anniversary of JD's signing with Boston.
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Old 02-26-2019, 03:46 PM
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The Bryce Harper saga may continue even longer now that Nolen Arenado has signed for 8 yrs at around $260M to stay in Colorado. Interestingly, Arenado is a former Scott Boras client. It seems like a win/win/win deal. Good for the Rockies, good for the player and frankly, good for MLB. Hopefully there won't be so much noise about good players not able to get paid.
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:08 PM
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Boras makes just over $100 million every year from his MLB contracts (or has for the past few years, not sure farther back.) Nobody asked, I just found it interesting.

There are rumors that the Yankees are working on extensions for Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances. Adding those to the already finished deals for Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks would be fantastic. This is so much better than signing Harper or Machado. I don't want a team cobbled together with ageing free agents; seeing young players come up and then flourish is one of the most enjoyable parts of being a fan. Yes, Gregorius and Hicks came in trades, but they were both young and before their primes. Come to think of it, the Yanks gave up Shane Green and John Ryan Murphy to get those two. Cashman should be arrested. He's really done his best work in the past five years.
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Old 02-26-2019, 07:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Barkis is Willin' View Post
The Bryce Harper saga may continue even longer now that Nolen Arenado has signed for 8 yrs at around $260M to stay in Colorado. Interestingly, Arenado is a former Scott Boras client. It seems like a win/win/win deal. Good for the Rockies, good for the player and frankly, good for MLB. Hopefully there won't be so much noise about good players not able to get paid.
I'm surprised at the number of people snorting at the Arenado deal. Say what you will about the wisdom of such deals but you'd think a guy still on the right side of 30 who can hit and field a hard position is the kind of guy you'd want to take that chance on. He's a rock solid, consistently great player. I'll pay for 6 WAR a year, year in year out.

Yes, his numbers are a bit inflated by Coors. Even accounting for that he's gotta be one of the ten best position players in the game. I can't name ten better ones. I could name five maybe, but I can't get to ten. Who else ya gonna pay?
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Old 02-27-2019, 08:16 AM
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I haven't seen much reaction one way or the other, but I can't understand why anyone would snort at the Arenado deal. Like I said, seems like a win/win/win.

I don't know if Bryce Harper is one of the five or so position players you'd rank ahead of Arenado, but definitely not for me. I'll take Arenado over Harper all day. I'll take him over Machado, too. Yes, the splits indicate he's a hell of a lot better hitter at Coors, but so what.
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Old 02-27-2019, 08:41 AM
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Absolutely no way Harper ranks ahead of Arenado. He is not one of the ten best position players in baseball. Maybe he will again get to his 2015 level, and then he would be, but he isn't there right now.

The only players I am confident I would rank ahead of Arenado are Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and probably Francisco Lindor. I can also see arguments for or against Machado, Jose Altuve, Jose Ramirez, and Christian Yelich. Aaron Judge with another huge year might get there. I'm not talking pitchers just because that's too different a kettle of fish.

Of course Arenado is a better hitter at Coors, but everyone is, and if Arenado is particularly adept at taking advantage of Coors, that is not an illusion; it's real value that wins ballgames. Last year on the road he batted .248 with 15 homers. the year before that, on he road, he hit .283 with 18 homers. The year before on the road he hit .277 with 16 homers. So if my in-my-head math is right, in a neutral park, Nolan Arenado is approximately a .270-.275 hitter with 30-35 dingers a year and Gold Glove defense at a hard position, who stays healthy and does that stuff every year like clockwork, and he's only 27, and that's assuming he doesn't have a small, normal home park advantage. Uh, yeah, I'll take guys like that. Send them right over.
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Last edited by RickJay; 02-27-2019 at 08:49 AM.
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Old 02-27-2019, 01:11 PM
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And yet, you can be damn sure the Arenado deal just upped Harper's price tag.
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Old 02-27-2019, 03:31 PM
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The Harper hysteria is, well, hysteria. He'll get far more money than he'll likely be worth.
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Old 02-28-2019, 08:37 AM
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The market is crazy, that's for sure. But it IS the market.
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Old 02-28-2019, 02:08 PM
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So 13 years for $330 million. Harper made out pretty well. Philly, maybe not so much.
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