Straight Dope Message Board

[ShadowFacts]

I'll happily start the thread this week, as the Patriots came away from the Thursday game against the hated NY Giants with a win that was decisive in score, even if they did not look that great getting it.

Thursday
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-17, 41)

Sunday morning
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5, 47.5)

Sunday early afternoon
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5, 48)
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (+1.5, 46.5)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 55)
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, 44)
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 44)
Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (+3.5, 41)

Sunday late afternoon
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 50.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5, 51.5)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (+7, 43.5)
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-2, 39.5)

Sunday night
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 41.5)

Monday night
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4, 47) 1

[Telemark]

Well, a win is a win, but there's not a lot to great to take away from last night's game. Especially the first half in which the Pat's offense looked inept against a team that shouldn't have been that close. The Pat's defense was solid but it was against a depleted Giant's offense and a rookie QB who was easily confused. That's not going to be enough against the Chiefs.

Ten days to rest up for the Jets, and maybe time to make a few personnel moves. 2

[Cheesesteak]

I was surprised how long the Giants held the game close, particularly since they had so many injuries on offense and a questionable defense.

Amazing, though that the Pats have had 6 games, with 3 against teams that have no wins, and the next best two have a combined 3 wins all season. Only the Bills look to be a legit good team.

After the Jets, though, they have 6 straight games against teams that are currently over .500. That's where we'll find out who these Patriots really are. 3

[Xema]

Originally Posted by Cheesesteak

After the Jets, though, they have 6 straight games against teams that are currently over .500.

A week (okay, 6 days) after the Jets, they face the Browns, currently 2-3-0. 4

[Atamasama]

I wonder if the Patriots are suffering on offense being without Gronk and with Brady getting a bit older? (He’s a month younger than me and I’m not a kid anymore.)

They still have Edelman and Josh Gordon seems to be a good addition for them, but their offense is not their strong point. They’re leaning on their defense which is looking like the best in the NFL this year. 5

[Cheesesteak]

Originally Posted by Xema

A week (okay, 6 days) after the Jets, they face the Browns, currently 2-3-0.

Oops, I read their record as 3-2. 6

[Ellis Dee]

Last night's game was weird in that I can see both sides being happy but with concerns over stuff to work on.

The Patriots looked out of sync on offense through 3 quarters but then pulled it together in Patriots fashion and finished with a flourish, comfortably covering the spread and (finally in the 4th) looking all around good. Clearly stuff to work on, but come on. Beating up on a bad team is never bad.

The Giants were legitimately in that game into the fourth quarter. IIRC, Giants had the ball down by 7 (early) in the 4th quarter, and that's in it. Even after already having coughed up the ball 4? times already, including giving up a TD by letting a a punt get blocked and recovered in the end zone. (Gah!)

Unfortunately the Patriots' time of possession had the defense out here a full game's worth by early in the 4th, when they lost a step (or 10) from fatigue. I'll take 30 minutes of solid defense; I haven't even thought about good defense on the Giants since 2016, the lone good year in Steve Spagnuolo's return to New York.

I'm starting to worry about Jones' turnovers, though, with at least two per game, every game. I love his accuracy, which was never Eli's thing outside of slant passes. (Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz, Steve Smith 2, etc...) Maybe that accuracy is why he tries to thread the needle so much. 7

[Atamasama]

Originally Posted by Ellis Dee

I'm starting to worry about Jones' turnovers, though, with at least two per game, every game. I love his accuracy, which was never Eli's thing outside of slant passes. (Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz, Steve Smith 2, etc...) Maybe that accuracy is why he tries to thread the needle so much.

Turnovers are one of the aspects of the game that usually gets better for any QB. Experience counts for a lot and as a passer gets more used to watching NFL defenses in action they can anticipate what a defender is going to do and where they’re going to be, and be less likely to throw a pass where the other team can get it. They also get better at decision-making and will get better judgment about whether a certain coverage is worth throwing into.

I find this article from May interesting:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-nfl-qb#slide0
It was predicting how the starting QBs would do. There was uncertainty about whether Manning or Jones would be the starter. The prediction there would be that Jones would have 5 TDs and 4 interceptions. At this point he already has 5 TDs in as many games, but 6 interceptions. So maybe not good. 8

[Paintcharge]

Originally Posted by Atamasama

I wonder if the Patriots are suffering on offense being without Gronk and with Brady getting a bit older? (He’s a month younger than me and I’m not a kid anymore.)

They still have Edelman and Josh Gordon seems to be a good addition for them, but their offense is not their strong point. They’re leaning on their defense which is looking like the best in the NFL this year.

Edelman has bruised ribs, and Gordon went out with a knee injury. The O line is somewhat patchwork. One of the new TE's went out during the game. I

I expect they're going to figure it out eventually. 9

[Southern Yankee]

Jameis Winston isn't terribly good, is he? 10

[Xema]

Winston: 5 interceptions + 1 fumble. And TB lost by only 11 points. 11

[SenorBeef]

Browns are wildly inconsistent. Mayfield is out-Russell Wilsoning Russell Wilson after sucking ass for a few weeks. I did pick them in the pick 'em leagues this week even though it was 90% against. 12

[SenorBeef]

A defender literally shoved Russell Wilson's shoulders and got called for roughing the passer. The play by play guy even said "oh come on" 13

[Chisquirrel]

Originally Posted by SenorBeef

A defender literally shoved Russell Wilson's shoulders and got called for roughing the passer. The play by play guy even said "oh come on"

Once the NFL realized they could get away with calling roughing the passer on a runner, nothing and nobody is safe. 14

[Atamasama]

Originally Posted by SenorBeef

A defender literally shoved Russell Wilson's shoulders and got called for roughing the passer. The play by play guy even said "oh come on"

As a Seattle fan I consider that a questionable call. I wouldn’t have been upset if it was a no-call.

That being said, it was a shove knocking him down, not a collision that was unavoidable, and it was clearly late. So I can see why the flag was thrown. 15

[dalej42]

First time seeing the Dolphins and they are horrible. Redskins already have 4 sacks in the 1st half with another one negated by a penalty. 16

[SenorBeef]

OBJ just tried something clever that you never see. Baker throws a ball right to a seahawks defender, who's on the ground after intercepting the pass. OBJ deliberately doesn't touch him and just waits - the guy gets up and tries to run, and OBJ punches the ball out while he's getting up.

The refs ruled that the guy was giving himself up, so it didn't matter, but it was a clever idea. 17

[dalej42]

How is it difficult to maintain a field in Miami? That field looks like Soldier Field in December. I assume there was a college game yesterday? 18

[kenobi 65]

Originally Posted by dalej42

How is it difficult to maintain a field in Miami? That field looks like Soldier Field in December. I assume there was a college game yesterday?

Yes, the Virginia - Miami college game was played there yesterday. 19

[Atamasama]

Before anyone says anything, that recent DPI in the end zone against Cleveland was crap. If there was any contact it was incidental and before the pass.

ETA: And another crap flag. The refs seem to have it out for the Browns. Again, I’m a Seattle fan. 20

[SenorBeef]

And then an inexplicable illegal blindside block on a textbook receiver block where the basically bumped chests. 21

[Atamasama]

Originally Posted by SenorBeef

And then an inexplicable illegal blindside block on a textbook receiver block where the basically bumped chests.

That’s the second crap flag I referenced. 22

[SenorBeef]

Seahawks fans are good dudes. The ones on the reddit game thread are more mad about the BS penalties than the Browns fans are. 23

[SenorBeef]

Literally don't even understand what's going on in the Browns game right now. Can't help but laugh. 24

[Atamasama]

Originally Posted by SenorBeef

Literally don't even understand what's going on in the Browns game right now. Can't help but laugh.

Right now the Browns are fighting Seattle, the refs, and themselves (or at least Kitchens). 25

[SenorBeef]

That was the dumbest and weirdest sequence of events I can remember in a football game. 26

[SenorBeef]

Okay, so Landry catches a pass and is extending over the goal line (he probably did so successfully and it was a TD) but he gets the ball knocked out of his hand and it goes into the end zone. The Browns recover the fumble in the end zone, which I thought was a touchdown. But the ref says "the Browns fumbled but because it was 4th down it will be returned to the spot of the fumble" and then calls 12 men on the field for seattle and half the distance to the goal.

There's a lot of confusion and no one understand what's going on, Kitchens is going crazy, at some point the ref has to announce "I'm explaining to the Browns coach the rule about the 4th down fumble"

Browns line up to run a 4th and 1 play on the goal line, Chubb gets an easy walk-in TD. Ohhhhhh no, Kitchens threw the flag right before the play started and iced his own kicker. They review whether Landry broke the plane. It looks like he did and it's a TD. So of course they say the play stands and he didn't cross the plane. Browns line up for the 4th and 1 play again and don't make it.

I think I may be leaving out a thing or two which made it weirder.

At least Seattle botched the next punt and the Browns were able to make it all up with a TD. I would've been butthurt all week if not for that. 27

[Atamasama]

Originally Posted by SenorBeef

At least Seattle botched the next punt and the Browns were able to make it all up with a TD. I would've been butthurt all week if not for that.

Hats off to Mayfield for playing when he’s clearly hurt. I don’t think he can be fully blamed for any of his interceptions today either. 28

[SenorBeef]

Sometimes in a game you get one of those "WTF" just wrong ref calls that change a game and it bothers you for days.

The Browns had 4 or 5 of those today and only lost by 4 points. FFS.

Awful, bizarre officiating. 29

[Atamasama]

By the way if given a choice by a genie I would have rather taken a lost game but not losing Dissly. We lost him early last season too. He’s an incredible weapon and has been probably the best overall TE in the league season (and Russell’s #2 guy after Lockett). If it’s a serious ACL injury and he’s out for the year that will be an awful blow to Seattle. I hope Uncle Will isn’t that hurt. 30

[Velocity]

The Cowboys are losing in the most Cowboys way possible: Getting blown out 21-6 by an inferior team (Jets,) yet also hitting a 62-yard field goal. 31

[garygnu]

Rams are 0-3 going for it on 4th Down. The 49ers defense is better than even I thought. 32

[iiandyiiii]

Saints won again without Brees! Can't wait to get him back! 33

[Atamasama]

Originally Posted by iiandyiiii

Saints won again without Brees! Can't wait to get him back!

They’ll get him back and lose.

Not because of him (Drew is awesome) but because football. 34

[Folacin]

So, will the Chiefs win another game? Not if they don't figure something out on defense. Mahomes is good to great, but he needs to score a TD every possession to keep up with the defense. I would like to see Reid and Mahomes running that offense against the Chiefs defense, though.

I'd bitch about the zebras and the storm of flags, but it was probably close to even.

There was one challenge of a missed PI where to my KC eyes it was at least as egregious as the NFC playoff one, but of course it wasn't called on review. Not sure why the NFL instituted that challenge when it is basically never overturned. 35

[garygnu]

My 49ers held an offense that had been averaging over 400 yards and almost 30 points to 157 yards and 7 points. 56 yards and the 7 points came on the first Rams drive. Of that isn't total dominance, I don't know what is. 36

[asterion]

Originally Posted by Xema

Winston: 5 interceptions + 1 fumble. And TB lost by only 11 points.

I believe that's called the Full Delhomme. 37

[Little Nemo]

The Chargers seemed to be playing like it's Week 14 and they've already been eliminated from the playoffs. 38

[dalej42]

NFL.com is saying this is the first Redskins win in Miami ever. I know before the current scheduling system, scheduling was all over the place but that just seems odd. 39

[Atamasama]

Originally Posted by dalej42

NFL.com is saying this is the first Redskins win in Miami ever. I know before the current scheduling system, scheduling was all over the place but that just seems odd.

The Dolphins have played Washington 15 times, and hold a 9-6-0 record. All but two of those losses occurred in Washington, the other loss which wasn’t in Washington was Super Bowl XVII which took place at the Rose Bowl.

https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl...mvsteam?opp=32
Fun fact, the first time the two teams ever played was in Super Bowl VII in 1973, the year Miami got their perfect record. 40

[racepug]

San Francisco has surprised me. Looks like maybe they are "for real" after all. The win over the Rams yesterday was most impressive (why Dallas @ the Jets was shown on national T.V. instead of Niners @ Rams is beyond me except for that team from Texas having a larger hold on the national consciousness than it deserves considering that it's now been nearly ¼ century since it last won anything of note). As a Seahawks fan I'm still wary of "Nawlins" and I think the Packers are to be contended with in the N.F.C. Over in the A.F.C., though - as I saw in an online article, yesterday - it already looks like N.E. will end up with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Not sure what's happened to the Chiefs (injury bug?) but I agree, at this point, that no other team in the A.F.C. looks like it's going to upend the Patriots. 41

[Ellis Dee]

Originally Posted by Folacin

There was one challenge of a missed PI where to my KC eyes it was at least as egregious as the NFC playoff one, but of course it wasn't called on review. Not sure why the NFL instituted that challenge when it is basically never overturned.

A similar deal happened in the Giants/Patriots game late in the 4th quarter, Giants down by 21. It was clear to everyone there was defensive PI, Giants challenged, call stands, no flag.

Later clarifications from sportswriters and pundits, going by what their contacts have told them, is that the league is explicitly using this new rule for one purpose: "To prevent the wrong team from going to the Superbowl" like what happened that caused the rule to be added in the first place.

Giants are a bad team, down by three TDs, 3:00 left in the game. Clear and obvious DPI (not called on field) is challenged, but this play won't prevent the wrong team from going to the Superbowl, so call upheld, no flag.

Yesterday's game someone interfered with a Chiefs receiver, it was clear and obvious, and yet they let the no-flag call stand? That's because not overturning it didn't send the wrong team to the Superbowl.

As I understand it, that is literally the review standard for pass interference. It has to be as obvious and egregious as it was on that Saints play last postseason, AND it has to send the wrong team to the Superbowl if you don't get it right.

EDIT: Link to the Giants/Patriots play. 42

[Little Nemo]

Originally Posted by Ellis Dee

Later clarifications from sportswriters and pundits, going by what their contacts have told them, is that the league is explicitly using this new rule for one purpose: "To prevent the wrong team from going to the Superbowl" like what happened that caused the rule to be added in the first place.

I hear this all the time. But it makes no sense to me. (And I'm a Bills fan. I'd love to believe that the Patriots are only winning due to the games being fixed.)

But why would the owners of thirty-one other teams allow a system to exist that benefits Robert Kraft? 43

[Ellis Dee]

Originally Posted by Little Nemo

I hear this all the time. But it makes no sense to me. (And I'm a Bills fan. I'd love to believe that the Patriots are only winning due to the games being fixed.)

But why would the owners of thirty-one other teams allow a system to exist that benefits Robert Kraft?

What does it have to do with the Patriots? The rule was instituted because the Rams got away with a clear PI against the Saints in the NFC Championship game, sending the wrong team (Rams) to the Superbowl. 44

[racepug]

Originally Posted by Ellis Dee

What does it have to do with the Patriots? The rule was instituted because the Rams got away with a clear PI against the Saints in the NFC Championship game, sending the wrong team (Rams) to the Superbowl.

I already was not a Rams fan. That non-call made it that much easier for me to not be one. 45

[Railer13]

This article was written on Friday, after the Pats-Giants game that featured one of the more obvious PI calls that wasn't called or overturned on appeal.

From the article:

'According to NFL GSIS data, 40 pass interference-related plays have been challenged in the 79 games played so far this season, but just seven have been overturned. That’s a total of 17.5 percent. Of those 40 plays, 28 involved non-calls, with only five (17.9 percent) resulting in a reversal. And just two (16.7 percent) of the 12 penalties that were challenged have been overturned. In recent weeks, challenges have basically stood no chance at all'

IMHO, the NFL will abandon the PI appeal after this season, if not before. 46

[Atamasama]

Originally Posted by racepug

San Francisco has surprised me. Looks like maybe they are "for real" after all. The win over the Rams yesterday was most impressive (why Dallas @ the Jets was shown on national T.V. instead of Niners @ Rams is beyond me except for that team from Texas having a larger hold on the national consciousness than it deserves considering that it's now been nearly ¼ century since it last won anything of note). As a Seahawks fan I'm still wary of "Nawlins" and I think the Packers are to be contended with in the N.F.C.

The 49ers and Saints are the only NFC teams with as many wins as Seattle. Saints have done it without Brees in most games. Packers have a good defense but I am not sure how “good” they are. Nobody in the NFC East looks good, I could see someone with a losing record winning the division this year (like Seattle did in 2010). 47

[Procrustus]

Originally Posted by Railer13

IMHO, the NFL will abandon the PI appeal after this season, if not before.

What is more likely, in my opinion, is that coaches will limit their challenges to the most egregious cases. 48

[racepug]

Originally Posted by Atamasama

The 49ers and Saints are the only NFC teams with as many wins as Seattle. Saints have done it without Brees in most games. Packers have a good defense but I am not sure how “good” they are. Nobody in the NFC East looks good, I could see someone with a losing record winning the division this year (like Seattle did in 2010).

The Saints have a bona fide top-notch head coach. I forgot to include them in my list from earlier. I'm not sure about the 'hawks. Sure, they're 5 - 1 but not one win has been all that impressive and San Francisco has beaten four of the teams that the Seahawks have beaten this season and they beat three of them (Cincinnatus, Cleveland, and the Rams) much worse than the Seahawks did. It's early but I think the 'hawks make the playoffs. Beyond that I'm not willing, at this point, to speculate on anything in that regard. 49

[Atamasama]

Originally Posted by racepug

The Saints have a bona fide top-notch head coach. I forgot to include them in my list from earlier. I'm not sure about the 'hawks. Sure, they're 5 - 1 but not one win has been all that impressive and San Francisco has beaten four of the teams that the Seahawks have beaten this season and they beat three of them (Cincinnatus, Cleveland, and the Rams) much worse than the Seahawks did. It's early but I think the 'hawks make the playoffs. Beyond that I'm not willing, at this point, to speculate on anything in that regard.

I think the Seahawks have a really good, balanced offense. Russell is playing as the undisputed MVP this year, Chris Carson is building on last year’s success as a RB (and stopped fumbling), Tyler Lockett is a legit #1 WR and Metcalf is a rookie WR not playing like a rookie. The OL goes from decent to crap but that’s nothing unusual.

The defense though isn’t good. The defensive line should be better, and maybe when Reed comes off suspension next week it will be better, but... The linebackers are awesome but they can only do so much. Only Griffin is looking good in the secondary (and he’s looking really good). They are allowing too much and while Russell keeps bailing them out you have to wonder if that’s enough.

I do think that the Seahawks are better than their numbers suggest. For example, they beat the Browns by 4. They could have beaten them by 11 if they wanted to. They got the ball just outside the end zone and the way the Cleveland D was playing they probably could have walked in. But they didn’t because the Browns had no timeouts and there was only a minute on the clock, so they went into victory formation to end the game. They do just enough to win.

While that’s not unusual, I feel like it’s a peek into their philosophy. They play conservative and grind out games. They are explosive when they need to be (and when opportunities appear) but don’t push it. Unless a team is just folding over with no resistance like Arizona they are unlikely to run up the score. So I don’t necessarily see that one team blowing out opponents is automatically better than the one barely beating them, though that could be the case.

Here’s an example... The Rams crushed the Saints, 27-9. Obliterated them. The next week the Saints go to Seattle and beat them. Clearly the Rams are better, right? But then Seattle beats the Rams, and are currently two games ahead of them in the standings. I would say that the Rams are not as good as Seattle and are fighting a serious SB hangover.

If things progress as they have been, with the Seahawks winning close games and the Niners winning by huge margins, I don’t know if we will get a real measure of them before Nov 11 when they meet. 50