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Old 03-04-2020, 11:16 PM
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What's Bernie's remaining realistic path to the nomination?


Bernie was dealt a harsh blow on Tuesday, no doubt. Do the remaining states (yet to vote) in this race favor him or Joe?

The superdelegates sure won't be on Bernie's side should it come to a second ballot, so he can only get the nomination via direct first-ballot victory. Looks like he can only win if Warren drops out pronto, and Joe suddenly has some gaffes of a worse-than-usual nature, and Bernie somehow successfully jolts the youth into actually showing up to vote.
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Old 03-04-2020, 11:20 PM
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None.
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Old 03-05-2020, 12:22 AM
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Somehow kicking butt next week, especially in Michigan.

Michigan is one of the must win states in the general and a surprising big Sanders win there, especially one that comes with a large young Black voter turnout for him, would change the narrative. With that narrative maybe then pulling out Florida and Ohio. Then he has an argument to make if it is no one with a majority and him close to Biden.

A narrow win in Michigan wouldn't do it.

Not impossible. Maybe not probable ...

Last edited by DSeid; 03-05-2020 at 12:22 AM.
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Old 03-05-2020, 01:18 AM
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Somehow kicking butt next week, especially in Michigan.

Michigan is one of the must win states in the general and a surprising big Sanders win there, especially one that comes with a large young Black voter turnout for him, would change the narrative. With that narrative maybe then pulling out Florida and Ohio. Then he has an argument to make if it is no one with a majority and him close to Biden.

A narrow win in Michigan wouldn't do it.

Not impossible. Maybe not probable ...
Bernie is dead in Florida with doubling down on Castro.

Amy and Pete people are heading to Michigan to help Biden.
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:37 AM
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There would have to be a major shift for him to regain his momentum.

I agree that his best chance is to get out there and show that he can get young people to show up and vote. If he shows he can deliver a sizable youth vote at the polls, he has a shot at getting back into this.
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Old 03-05-2020, 12:22 AM
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Get his supporters off of Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter and into the voting booths.

He has significant leads in every demographic under 45, which combine to over 55% of the electorate. Unfortunately for Sanders, those same demographics are showing up at less than half the rate of Biden's supporters. If they actually SHOW UP, he has an uphill, but viable, path. If they continue to sit at home and rage at the unfairness of other people voicing their opinion, then he losing yet again to a "milquetoast Republican-lite".
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Old 03-05-2020, 04:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Chisquirrel View Post
Get his supporters off of Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter and into the voting booths.

He has significant leads in every demographic under 45, which combine to over 55% of the electorate. Unfortunately for Sanders, those same demographics are showing up at less than half the rate of Biden's supporters. If they actually SHOW UP, he has an uphill, but viable, path. If they continue to sit at home and rage at the unfairness of other people voicing their opinion, then he losing yet again to a "milquetoast Republican-lite".
Basically this. A very tall task, but possible.
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Old 03-05-2020, 06:58 AM
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I don't see a path for him. With proportional delegate allocation, it's really hard to cut into someone's lead. Personally, I think his win in Michigan in 2016 was a fluke and Biden will actually carry this state (he's got one vote from me here). Even if he wins say 50-30 with the rest scattered, that doesn't translate into a delegate sweep. Biden can make that back in spades with a huge win in Georgia which he will definitely get. Add to that LA, MS, PA, DE, NJ, and likely NY. We've seen a remarkable turnaround in the past week, and barring another one this week I think the race is over.
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Old 03-05-2020, 07:22 AM
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While I do not see a path for Sanders, I am ever so slightly rueful about the fact that it won't be Sanders on the debate stage against Trump. I don't think Biden will be able to express the level of scathing contempt that Bernie can pull off. Biden is simply not in the same league as a debater. But, I hold fast to the dream in which Joe punches Trump right in the mouth, FTW.
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Old 03-05-2020, 08:14 AM
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What's Bernie's remaining realistic path to the nomination?


I think he should show up at the convention, act insane and say "I'm not going to be ignored' like Glenn Close did in fatal attraction.

Sanders is currently trailing Biden by 67 delegates, 582 vs 515. There are still a lot of outstanding delegates in states Sanders won like CO, CA, UT. TX is mostly a wash, TN & NC have a few Biden delgates outstanding too.

But again, I know there have been predictions but the delegate lead will likely narrow as more ballots are counted. There are 189 outstanding delegates in states Sanders won like CA, UT & CO; 26 outstanding in states Biden won, 33 in Texas (which was pretty much a tie), and 13 in overseas democrats.

It really depends on how Sanders does in industrial midwest and northeast states. The big delegates are in IL, OH, NY, MI. Not sure how he will do in those.
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Old 03-05-2020, 08:00 AM
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I don't see a path for him. With proportional delegate allocation, it's really hard to cut into someone's lead.
Should be cautious though. We really don't know what Biden's lead is at the moment. California still can change.
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Old 03-05-2020, 08:59 AM
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Should be cautious though. We really don't know what Biden's lead is at the moment. California still can change.
Indeed. I've been following the NPR Delegate Tracker pretty closely. At the moment they have Biden up 595-528 with 144 California delegates unallocated. Biden's lead could certainly shrink to nearly nothing, but the map becomes a lot unfriendlier to Bernie in the weeks ahead. MI and WA may be his best chances among sizeable states, but I don't see a blowout for him anywhere with huge delegate hauls. On the other hand, I can totally see Biden running up the score in PA, GA, FL, MD, NJ, and a few others.
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Old 03-05-2020, 09:04 AM
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Get his supporters off of Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter and into the voting booths.

He has significant leads in every demographic under 45, which combine to over 55% of the electorate. Unfortunately for Sanders, those same demographics are showing up at less than half the rate of Biden's supporters. If they actually SHOW UP, he has an uphill, but viable, path. If they continue to sit at home and rage at the unfairness of other people voicing their opinion, then he losing yet again to a "milquetoast Republican-lite".
I would quibble with the notion that increased youth turnout necessarily helps Sanders.

This is because I also quibble with the (widely-expressed) notion that Sanders supporters attend his rallies and post support for him on social media and then don't bother to vote. (I'm sure there are such people but not enough to be a major factor.) I think the people who attend the rallies and post on social media do vote, but these people are a small -though very visible - minority of the population even in that age group, and the vast majority don't do these things. What's driving low youth-voter turnout is that the non-rally-attending young people vote at much lower levels than non-rally attending people in older age groups.

IOW, the cohort of young people is more dichotomous than older people in this regard. There are more passionate fervent political junkies and also more apolitical people.

But here's the thing, as applied to Sanders. Politically passionate young people tend to be drawn to revolutionary ideas, causes, and people. This has been the case throughout history AFAICT. And this is the basis of Sanders' strong support among this cohort. He's the guy who is going to remake the system and lead us to a Brave New World utopia. But it doesn't follow that Sanders has nearly the same level of support among the more politically apathetic young people.

In sum, people are making the assumption that if younger eligible voters voted at the same levels as older voters, that Sanders would receive the same level of support as he does from others in that cohort. But I don't that assumption is necessarily correct, and it's likely that among those marginal additional voters his advantage would be significantly smaller if it would exist at all.
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Old 03-05-2020, 09:39 AM
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Get his supporters off of Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter and into the voting booths.

He has significant leads in every demographic under 45, which combine to over 55% of the electorate. Unfortunately for Sanders, those same demographics are showing up at less than half the rate of Biden's supporters. If they actually SHOW UP, he has an uphill, but viable, path. If they continue to sit at home and rage at the unfairness of other people voicing their opinion, then he losing yet again to a "milquetoast Republican-lite".
In fairness, I think most of his vocal supporters probably voted. But most voters arenít vocal. Most voters donít even follow politics online. Most voters have FaceBook feeds filled with family photos, cat videos and special interest material. Most voters donít watch debates or research candidates. Most voters donít even feel strongly about their candidates.

Among the older set, there are lots of people that vote because they were conditioned from a young age to do so. Because voting is symbolic of the wonderfulness of democracy. Itís your civic duty and if you donít do it you have no right to complain about your governance. Itís a right that our forefathers fought for and we need to respect their work.

So the older folks dutifully march to the polls every couple of years and click the box next to the least objectionable candidate. They donít have to love them or even like them. They donít have to feel that they are going to do something that will personally benefit them. They do it because thatís what we do. They donít need the promise of a revolution, because they vote to fufill the promises made in that revolution 250 or so years ago.

Maybe that makes them mindless drones, but it gets out the vote. And young people just donít vote like that. So they lose the numbers game.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 03-05-2020 at 09:41 AM.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:08 PM
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Get his supporters off of Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter and into the voting booths.

He has significant leads in every demographic under 45, which combine to over 55% of the electorate. Unfortunately for Sanders, those same demographics are showing up at less than half the rate of Biden's supporters. If they actually SHOW UP, he has an uphill, but viable, path. If they continue to sit at home and rage at the unfairness of other people voicing their opinion, then he losing yet again to a "milquetoast Republican-lite".
Yes, this is it.

Needs the young voters actually...voting.

What I love is that after raging at the unfairness of the DNC, they now want the DNC to "step in" and pick Bernie.

Telling them over and over again that the DNC has little power in this, that it's the voters doesnt seem to sink in.
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Old 03-05-2020, 08:00 AM
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Every politician has their own strengths.
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Old 03-05-2020, 08:08 AM
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Chicago '68-style riots at the convention. It would kill any chance at winning the election, but it might get him the nom.
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Old 03-05-2020, 11:00 AM
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Chicago '68-style riots at the convention. It would kill any chance at winning the election, but it might get him the nom.
It sounds rude, but I would find that awesome
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Old 03-07-2020, 07:25 PM
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Chicago '68-style riots at the convention. It would kill any chance at winning the election, but it might get him the nom.
I was there last time. I am a little old for this kind of thing now.
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Old 03-07-2020, 10:51 PM
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Bernie Sanders likes to attack Joe Biden for voting for the "Wall Street bailouts", meaning TARP, which he voted against. We're all damn lucky Bernie's vote didn't carry the day! These were loans, which the banks paid back with interest, and Bernie's terribly irresponsible opposition risked completely nuking the world economy.


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I was there last time. I am a little old for this kind of thing now.

I just watched Medium Cool on Blu-ray last night. Absolutely incredible stuff! I can't believe they put actors into the middle of that.
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Old 03-05-2020, 08:11 AM
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The two paths are:

1. The arrival of the Millennium on the hooves of Space Unicorns, or

2. Young people actually showing up to vote at rates at least equal to their elders.

Experience suggests that Door #1 is the more realistic possibility.
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Old 03-05-2020, 08:23 AM
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probably he has to have Biden get very sick or have a major screw up
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Old 03-05-2020, 08:58 AM
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Well, let's look at the upcoming primary calendar with number of delegates at stake in parentheses, not including superdelegates):

March 10
Idaho (20)
Michigan (125)
Mississippi (36)
Missouri (68)
North Dakota (14)
Washington (89)

Looking at that list and based on the general pattern that Sanders is stronger in the West and Biden in the South, then that's not a terrible crop of states for Sanders IF he pulls off a good victory in Michigan. IF that happens, you could see him win MI, ID, ND and WA. 4/6 and the big prize could give him some momentum and change the narrative. If MI is essentially a draw, that generally probably helps slightly further the current Biden narrative. Biden wins MI decisively, things begin to look very dicey for Sanders.


March 14
Northern Mariana

I think we can agree this will have no big effect.

March 17
Arizona (67)
Florida (219)
Illinois (155)
Ohio (136)

Based on current polling, this is likely a much worse crop of states for Sanders and they are big ones. Unless he can win MI and get some momentum as I mentioned earlier, these states seem like very favorable for Biden and could be where he lands the knockout punch. But maybe a Warren endorsement solidifies a Sanders lead in Illinois and puts Ohio into play? That could even the delegate count out.

The race has changed quickly several times, so I don't think any scenario is out of bounds at this point. I would not count Sanders out yet.
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Old 03-05-2020, 09:43 AM
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March 14
Northern Mariana

I think we can agree this will have no big effect.
It did 60 years ago but only for a very limited amount of time

Last edited by Ludovic; 03-05-2020 at 09:44 AM.
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Old 03-05-2020, 01:51 PM
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Well, let's look at the upcoming primary calendar with number of delegates at stake in parentheses, not including superdelegates):

March 10
Idaho (20)
Michigan (125)
Mississippi (36)
Missouri (68)
North Dakota (14)
Washington (89)
Sanders won Washington overwhelmingly in 2016 (73/27), though an interesting thing has changed: 2016 was a caucus, whereas 2020 will be a primary (w/ vote by mail, as all Washington elections are.) It'll be interesting to see how he does this time around.

(Washington actually held a primary in 2016, too, which didn't allocate delegates. Don't ask, it's too dumb to think about. Clinton actually won that narrowly, though I'm not sure it has any predictive value.)
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Old 03-05-2020, 09:03 AM
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Biden suddenly dying.
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Old 03-05-2020, 09:53 AM
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Warren just quit the race
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Old 03-05-2020, 10:13 AM
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My prediction is that the vast majority of Bloomberg voters will go to Biden. Sanders, at best, might get about half of the Warren voters. I think it’s more likely that Warren’s supporters will split evenly between Sanders and Biden.

In terms of the map, I think it also favors Biden. There are still several southern states where he is heavily favored, including the big ones of Florida and Georgia. Bernie may very well win out west, but those are small states like Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Washington and Oregon are somewhat larger but won’t outweigh Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, etc. So that leaves the Midwest. Sanders would have to win states like Michigan this coming Tuesday as well as Ohio and Illinois, by something like 60/40 or greater in order to have a chance. It’s not impossible, but I think it’s highly unlikely.

My guess is that the odds right now are something like 96/3/1 for Biden, Sanders, and a contested convention respectively.
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Old 03-05-2020, 10:46 AM
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I guess the 12% who favor Sanders are not Cuban.
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Old 03-05-2020, 01:50 PM
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While I still maintain he aint dead yet, he is indeed circling the drain. Lose Michigan, especially solidly, and there is no path forward.

Next question is how long does he stay in bringing on bigger more desperate attacks against Biden? How nasty do his attacks get?

Unfortunately I am afraid he won't move to circling the wagons until it is literally the case that Biden has enough pledged delegates of his own to win without winning a single additional one, and maybe not even until they have voted at the convention. And that he will get quite divisive between now and then.
This is what I think, too.

There was someone in another thread, Dallas Jones, I think. S/he said something to the effect of, it's not two separate wings of the Democratic party. It's two parties trying to share the Democratic party's umbrella. Very different things. I think that is nail-on-the-head stuff, there.

A pundit recently summarized where Bernie is at: It's hard to lead a party when you're treating many of its members like they are the enemy.

Bernie's greatest failing is that he has no real allies in the party. No surrogates to speak of to go out and share his vision for the future. Well, I guess Bill DeBlasio and Michael Moore... but even Elizabeth Warren, the person whom most perceive as being the closest to Sanders ideologically, isn't endorsing him. I'll be very surprised if she does.

What Bernie has tried to do over these past 5 years is co-opt the Democratic party for his own vision of the future -- much as Trump did to Republicans. That's fine. He can try. But I've said for years that if the Republican party had employed super delegates, there would have been no Trump presidency. This is what super delegates are for: To prevent a hostile takeover of your party by an outlier who doesn't really share your vision of what you've worked to build. Someone doesn't get to just join your party and say, "Hey! Look at me, I'm a Democrat! Now everyone think in lockstep with meeeee!!" We can see what happened to Republicans with this approach.

Bernie is free to go start his own third party. I hope he does. It's what he really wants.

Maddow gave him a hard knock last night. She didn't let him spout his talking points unchallenged. She showed him with actual math how his assertions about how he has "excited the American people" with his ideas are simply wrong. In the end, it was kind of sad. Bernie kept returning to his practiced message, but it really no longer resonates.

He said again and again that he would inspire turnout among "hard-working Americans" by showing them that his way is a better way. All I kept thinking was, how long are we supposed to give you to complete this inspirational work while the country burns to the ground?

Agree particularly that if there is a decisive win by or split with Biden in Michigan, Sanders needs to get out. I doubt he will. As the rest of the party coalesces around Biden, I can only hope they give Biden the magic 1,991 delegates before the convention. The "Democratic establishment" learned from 2016. They know they need a decisive win by a candidate in advance of Milwaukee. We'll soon find out if Bernie really is all about beating Trump -- or something else.
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Old 03-05-2020, 03:45 PM
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Agree particularly that if there is a decisive win by or split with Biden in Michigan, Sanders needs to get out. I doubt he will. As the rest of the party coalesces around Biden, I can only hope they give Biden the magic 1,991 delegates before the convention. The "Democratic establishment" learned from 2016. They know they need a decisive win by a candidate in advance of Milwaukee. We'll soon find out if Bernie really is all about beating Trump -- or something else.
Yes. He'll probably be like Hillary in 2008 trying to hang on hoping for a miracle. But I don't think that cost Obama many or any votes. This is different, Bernie is going hard after Biden. If Bernie loses badly in Michigan and stays in, I will lose all the respect I currently have for him.
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Old 03-05-2020, 04:29 PM
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Yes. He'll probably be like Hillary in 2008 trying to hang on hoping for a miracle. But I don't think that cost Obama many or any votes. This is different, Bernie is going hard after Biden. If Bernie loses badly in Michigan and stays in, I will lose all the respect I currently have for him.
Hang on. It's not fair to compare 2008 to 2020.

from Wiki:

Quote:
The clear front-runner, she (Clinton) was widely expected to clinch the nomination early, but as of June 3, 2008, she had 1,923 delegates, 231 behind Barack Obama and 195 short of the 2,118 required to win the Democratic nomination. She withdrew from the race and endorsed Barack Obama, as the presumptive nominee, on June 7.

Clinton was nominated and subsequently assumed the office of Secretary of State in the Obama administration.
(emphasis mine)

Look how close their delegate totals were all the way to June 7th. (Wiki)

So pretty much at the moment it became apparent she could not win, she suspended. And I can tell you, going on to be the SoS in an Obama administration had to be about the most bitter pill in the world to swallow, given the state of our foreign policy after GWB. Nevertheless, as a team player, she stepped up and took a horrible job after a demoralizing defeat by upstart Obama.

Contrast this with what Bernie pulled on her in 2016. Also from Wiki:

Quote:
Clinton finally declared victory on the evening of June 7, as the results ensured that she had won a majority of the pledged delegates and the popular vote. Sanders stated he would continue to run for the Democratic Party's nomination in the final primary in the District of Columbia on June 14, which Clinton won. Both campaigns met at a downtown Washington D.C. hotel after the primary. The Sanders campaign said that they would release a video statement on June 16 to clarify the future of Sanders' campaign; the video announced that Sanders looked forward to help Clinton defeat Trump. On July 12, 2016, Sanders endorsed Clinton in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
(emphasis mine)

He still didn't officially drop out of the race until the convention on July 26, 2016.

Biden is already up 65-odd votes against Bernie this time around. It is easy to see with upcoming races, Sanders is likely to lag behind by far more than 231 votes, and much sooner.

I suspect you're going to lose all respect for him shortly, as I did in 2016.
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Old 03-05-2020, 11:17 PM
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What Bernie has tried to do over these past 5 years is co-opt the Democratic party for his own vision of the future -- much as Trump did to Republicans. That's fine. He can try. But I've said for years that if the Republican party had employed super delegates, there would have been no Trump presidency. This is what super delegates are for: To prevent a hostile takeover of your party by an outlier who doesn't really share your vision of what you've worked to build. Someone doesn't get to just join your party and say, "Hey! Look at me, I'm a Democrat! Now everyone think in lockstep with meeeee!!" We can see what happened to Republicans with this approach.
I have to disagree with this. Sanders on his worst day is not Trump. Sanders is the leader of a movement. The only cause Trump cares about is what's best for Donald Trump. As far as Trump's concerned, the Republican Party can go out of business they day he leaves office.

That said, I agree that Sanders and his movement are trying to hijack the party. They want to be the only ones steering the ship but they want everybody else to stay on board and paddle.
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:02 PM
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I have to disagree with this. Sanders on his worst day is not Trump. Sanders is the leader of a movement. The only cause Trump cares about is what's best for Donald Trump. As far as Trump's concerned, the Republican Party can go out of business they day he leaves office.

<snip>
Just to clarify, I never, ever said he was like Trump. I said he employed Trumpian tactics. That's what turned me off of him for good and all in 2016.
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:19 PM
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AP is showing 603-538 Joe-Bernie. A gap of 65. So that divide seems to be holding pretty firm even as more votes are tallied.
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Old 03-08-2020, 01:50 AM
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Sooo...Bernie's new advisor is a conspiracy nutter who has repeatedly made disparaging remarks about Michelle Obama's appearance. Nice.

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...103286272?s=20

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...263119360?s=20
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Old 03-09-2020, 11:30 AM
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Sooo...Bernie's new advisor is a conspiracy nutter who has repeatedly made disparaging remarks about Michelle Obama's appearance. Nice.

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...103286272?s=20

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...263119360?s=20
Which is why I do blame Bernie for the actions of his Bros. I have said repeatedly that a candidate isnít responsible for some random raving nut job on Twitter, but when the campaign is staffed with trolls, that is a reason to blame them
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  #38  
Old 03-09-2020, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
Sooo...Bernie's new advisor is a conspiracy nutter who has repeatedly made disparaging remarks about Michelle Obama's appearance. Nice.

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...103286272?s=20

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...263119360?s=20
Anybody on Sander's staff could have googled this guy to find this. Either they didn't, which is incompetent, or they did and rolled with him anyway, which is stupid.

I smell the flop sweat of desperation, Bernie.
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  #39  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:24 PM
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I think Warren at this point sees her role to be the final nail on Bernie if he loses Michigan big and stays divisive. She won’t jump on the losing train and she will hold off on endorsing Biden until it places her as unity builder.
  #40  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:33 PM
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I think Warren at this point sees her role to be the final nail on Bernie if he loses Michigan big and stays divisive. She wonít jump on the losing train and she will hold off on endorsing Biden until it places her as unity builder.
Again, agreed. Warren wants to remain relevant and has never fought with the mainstream Democratic party in the way Sanders has.
  #41  
Old 03-05-2020, 05:37 PM
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It's been a long time. I remember reading on this board a thread about how Hillary should concede but the details are fuzzy, but let's not get sidetracked. Forget the Hillary reference, Bernie has to get out soon
  #42  
Old 03-05-2020, 06:12 PM
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It's been a long time. I remember reading on this board a thread about how Hillary should concede but the details are fuzzy, but let's not get sidetracked. Forget the Hillary reference, Bernie has to get out soon
Agreed on all counts. Thanks for being gracious.
  #43  
Old 03-06-2020, 02:20 AM
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I think at this point it's just a matter of Bernie volunteers working phones & hammering home that "credit card Joe' isn't really a strong candidate. Which he isn't.

Joe Biden is a right-wing kind of corrupt candidate:
war on drugs, war on crime, war on Iraq
He'd move your job overseas & not let you write off your debt.
Called children of single mothers "superpredators."
Indifferent to or unaware of the urgency climate change.

There's already a party for that kind of thing; he's not in it; and they have the White House now.
Bernie is the candidate of the Democratic voter. Biden is the candidate of people who don't care who wins this fall.

That's it. It may not work, but that's the pitch.
  #44  
Old 03-06-2020, 03:07 AM
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Agreed.

With Bernie and Biden neck and neck now and Biden having a very vulnerable history and present, Bernie has a great opportunity.

Rich voters with some morals hopefully hate Bidens homophobia, millions of drug imprisonments, pro war record etc.

Poorer voters should hate his anti social security policies, free trade free reign attitude and refusal to support Medicare for all.

Low information voters have his apparent senility.

Bernie has grass roots support and small money donors. Those small money donors have to count for solid word of mouth support. Something corporate support can't do.

Bloomberg's massive waste of money has demonstrated the limits of oligarchy.

It's one type of purity politics versus another now. Pure establishment, corporate backed interests, or the interests of regular Americans.

Bernie has a good chance.
  #45  
Old 03-06-2020, 07:30 AM
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If Bernie wins in Ohio and Michigan, and if he can do that convincingly, that would be a strong message. It would be particularly strong given that these are winnable states for Democrats against Trump. If either of these two candidates wants to make a statement on their electability, this week is going to be almost as important as Super Tuesday.

The truth is, Bernie's win and California and Biden's win in Texas are not all that important because we already know which way both states are going to lean in November. They're both symbolic in that they are large prizes, and they are diverse states, but as great as Super Tuesday was for Biden, it wasn't a clinching victory, IMO. But if Biden can flip the script and beat Bernie in both Ohio and Michigan, then Bernie should start talking about how to support Biden and Biden should be talking about how to convince Bernie's delegates to support them going forward.
  #46  
Old 03-06-2020, 11:11 AM
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But if Biden can flip the script and beat Bernie in both Ohio and Michigan,
It wouldn't be Biden flipping the script - he polls ahead of Bernie in both states. Sanders is the one with an uphill slog ahead of him.

For what little it may be worth, 538 has dropped Sanders' chance of outright victory all the way down to 3%( with 10% of nobody getting a majority ).

Last edited by Tamerlane; 03-06-2020 at 11:12 AM.
  #47  
Old 03-06-2020, 12:46 PM
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For what little it may be worth, 538 has dropped Sanders' chance of outright victory all the way down to 3%( with 10% of nobody getting a majority ).
I guess the Democratic party now controls Fivethirtyeight, eh?
  #48  
Old 03-06-2020, 11:25 AM
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Originally Posted by foolsguinea View Post
I think at this point it's just a matter of Bernie volunteers working phones & hammering home that "credit card Joe' isn't really a strong candidate. Which he isn't.

Joe Biden is a right-wing kind of corrupt candidate:
war on drugs, war on crime, war on Iraq
He'd move your job overseas & not let you write off your debt.
Called children of single mothers "superpredators."
Indifferent to or unaware of the urgency climate change.

There's already a party for that kind of thing; he's not in it; and they have the White House now.
Bernie is the candidate of the Democratic voter. Biden is the candidate of people who don't care who wins this fall.

That's it. It may not work, but that's the pitch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
Agreed.

With Bernie and Biden neck and neck now and Biden having a very vulnerable history and present, Bernie has a great opportunity.

Rich voters with some morals hopefully hate Bidens homophobia, millions of drug imprisonments, pro war record etc.

Poorer voters should hate his anti social security policies, free trade free reign attitude and refusal to support Medicare for all.

Low information voters have his apparent senility.

Bernie has grass roots support and small money donors. Those small money donors have to count for solid word of mouth support. Something corporate support can't do.

Bloomberg's massive waste of money has demonstrated the limits of oligarchy.

It's one type of purity politics versus another now. Pure establishment, corporate backed interests, or the interests of regular Americans.

Bernie has a good chance.
This kind of "If I can't win, I'll make you lose" strategy will only benefit Trump.

If Sanders can regain the lead by selling himself and his ideas as the better choice, then more power to him. He deserves to win if he can do it on that basis.

But if all his followers do is try to knock Biden down then they deserve all the scorn that will be placed upon them.
  #49  
Old 03-07-2020, 12:17 PM
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I'd guess there's more than a small chance that - provided moderators are fair - Biden gets his head handed to him at the March 15 debate. Could give Bernie a significant boost.
  #50  
Old 03-07-2020, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Xema View Post
provided moderators are fair
And yet another suggestion that the Democratic Party and the Big Media are out to get Sanders.

Just replace "Sanders" with "Trump" and it's like listening to Rush Limbaugh.
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