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Old 03-02-2020, 01:48 PM
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Who do you think WILL win the presidency in 2020?


Stupid 50X error crashed the thread so I couldn't add the poll so I'll be redoing it. Mods please close

Last edited by Saint Cad; 03-02-2020 at 01:51 PM.
  #2  
Old 03-02-2020, 01:55 PM
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Trump beats Biden and Bloomberg because Biden and Bloomberg donít have any energy behind them. Iíd love to meet just one super-enthusiastic Joe Biden supporter but I really donít know if any exist. And Bloomberg? Another billionaire? If he gets the nomination the Democrats might as well do away with Primaries altogether and just hold an auction every four years.

Nope. Trump would crush both of them.

Bernie, on the other hand, has a real movement behind him. He has a lot of genuinely passionate and boundlessly enthusiastic supporters. Plus, unlike Biden and Bloomberg, he has a distinct platform that sets him apart. Everyone knows what Bernie stands for. Thatís half the battle right there. Bernie has a real shot. I cant say Iím 100% confident heíll beat Trump but Iím a hell of a lot more confident in him than I am in the other two.

Warren isnít even worth mentioning at this point.
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Old 03-02-2020, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Unreconstructed Man View Post
Trump beats Biden and Bloomberg because Biden and Bloomberg donít have any energy behind them. Iíd love to meet just one super-enthusiastic Joe Biden supporter but I really donít know if any exist. And Bloomberg? Another billionaire? If he gets the nomination the Democrats might as well do away with Primaries altogether and just hold an auction every four years.
I (and everyone I know) is super enthusiastic about the chance to get rid of Trump. That will motivate a great many.

I've also heard many say they would vote for anyone over Trump, except Bernie and Warren. I can't be sure how honest they're being, but that seems to be a common refrain in the industrial Midwest.
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Old 03-02-2020, 03:20 PM
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Still voting tomorrow but my candidate has dropped out. My first choice-Inslee was gone before anybody could ask Who? Now it is just stop the evil madness and corruption.
They say in the stock market every sale has a buyer and both sides think they are smart. Maybe elections are the same way.
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Old 03-02-2020, 04:23 PM
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Sanders if the democrats allow him.

Trump if anyone else.

But it all depends on if the democrats can get their allies in the MSM and Hollywood to get behind Biden or whomever else.
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Old 03-02-2020, 05:02 PM
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Right now, my money is on Biden. He's long been called "Pennsylvania's third Senator." If he can get it to flip from 2016, I think he's the favorite.
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Old 03-02-2020, 06:24 PM
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Trump beats Biden and Bloomberg because Biden and Bloomberg donít have any energy behind them. Iíd love to meet just one super-enthusiastic Joe Biden supporter but I really donít know if any exist. And Bloomberg? Another billionaire? If he gets the nomination the Democrats might as well do away with Primaries altogether and just hold an auction every four years.

Nope. Trump would crush both of them.

Bernie, on the other hand, has a real movement behind him. He has a lot of genuinely passionate and boundlessly enthusiastic supporters. Plus, unlike Biden and Bloomberg, he has a distinct platform that sets him apart. Everyone knows what Bernie stands for. Thatís half the battle right there. Bernie has a real shot. I cant say Iím 100% confident heíll beat Trump but Iím a hell of a lot more confident in him than I am in the other two.

Warren isnít even worth mentioning at this point.
I predict that exact opposite. Trump would beat Sanders and lose to Biden or Bloomberg.

Energy is overrated. You can't vote more than once regardless of whether you sort of like a candidate or love them so much you would lay down your life for them.

And passion is a two-way street. For every person who loves Sanders, there's three other people who hate him. Biden and Bloomberg don't inspire that kind of emotion. Nobody is going to go out of their way to vote against either of them. Some people will vote for them because they're the Democratic nominee and some people will vote for them because they hate Trump and want to vote against him.
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Old 03-02-2020, 06:35 PM
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Tramp is demonstrably scared shitless of Biden. I think Old Joe will take it unless all polling places are quarantined.
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Old 03-02-2020, 07:12 PM
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My prediction: Weíll see a Biden/Warren ticket. This will
Leak before the DNC does a nomination. Warren in the WH will give the Dems a boost to win.

But how will Biden squirm away from the Ukraine BS? Hopefully heíll point out all the family favors that the Trump family is getting.

That should put a D in the white house.

Last edited by Locrian; 03-02-2020 at 07:14 PM.
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Old 03-02-2020, 07:23 PM
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I think Sanders would beat Trump. Not as certain about Biden. Sanders supporters are passionate. Biden supporters may not go to the polls unless it's a sunny day and they don't have to drive too far.
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Old 03-02-2020, 07:30 PM
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It's complicated.

Bernie's got a lot of progressive energy, which Biden's campaign doesn't really have. At the same time, Bernie's ideas are going to scare the shit out of a lot of voters who aren't democrats, and not all of those voters are necessarily republicans.

I think Trump wins, unless he fucks up so badly within the next 9 months that the entire country wishes he had been successfully removed from office. To that end, if Trump's poll numbers dip, Biden is probably better positioned to capitalize on that, but again, Trump will follow the same script he used with Hillary: he will try to poison pill his campaign.
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Old 03-02-2020, 08:01 PM
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Trump’s approval rating seems to have around a 44% cap. In recent times, no one that low has ever won an election. But these times aren’t like recent times...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

I have to believe that any Democrat should win, except maybe Sanders. Too many voters grew up with the lesson that “socialism is evil”. But nothing surprises me any more. If Trump wins again, it might as well be West/Kardashian in 2024.
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  #13  
Old 03-02-2020, 08:11 PM
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If Biden is the nominee, I think he'll win. It'll be close, but I think he'll flip enough states, with perhaps 1-2 to spare.

If Sanders is the nominee, I think he gets slaughtered. Trump wins handily.
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Old 03-02-2020, 08:25 PM
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Short Answer is that I have no idea.

Long answer:

Bernie is showing well against Trump in national polls, but those are pretty useless at determining an election, but he does hold up well against him in the important states Iíve seen (Florida). Iím a little concerned about how easy it is to meme Bernie to death on social media (read: socialism). Are those effective on the undecided? Subconsciously, I suspect they are, but have no data.

Biden also shows well against Trump in a few of the important states, but Iím a little concerned on what happens to the Democratic Party if Sanders doesnít win. Now that the field has finally thinned, things are interesting. Personally I believe that you bring out more voters when voting for someone (Sanders) than against them (for Biden-against Trump) but thatís what happens if you nominate Biden. You may bring out more Sanders voters if Warren is VP, but I have no knowledge on that. I also have my worries about Biden on a debate stage with Trump.

Bloomberg has no shot.

If I were forced to gamble, Biden if he picks a progressive running mate.
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Old 03-02-2020, 08:25 PM
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I think Sanders would beat Trump. Not as certain about Biden. Sanders supporters are passionate. Biden supporters may not go to the polls unless it's a sunny day and they don't have to drive too far.
I feel the opposite. Biden supporters are more likely to be regular voters, who show up in election after election without needing to work themselves up over it. It's Sanders voters who need to feel the passion flowing in order to get out and vote.
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Old 03-02-2020, 09:49 PM
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I think Bernie Sanders might just lose to Trump. Warren, too, sadly.

I think Biden would win.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:38 PM
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But these times arenít like recent times...
Right. It doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate. Trump will win because:
  • He has a hugely funded propaganda machine--better than in 2016, after four years to refine itself.
  • There is a sizable, key sector of the voters that are permanently duped/brain-dead
  • Trump and his butt-lickers are shameless, and will stoop lower than anything to win.
  • Russia will be doing one thing or another
Even though more voters want to kick Trump's ass out, the system is corrupted now. Voting doesn't work anymore--as least not for president.
  #18  
Old 03-02-2020, 10:52 PM
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I think Biden can beat Trump but it will be close
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:55 PM
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If I had to wager right now, I'd say Trump since he's got the incumbency advantage and this year's election could very well end up giving the exact same result as last time (i.e. Trump losing the popular vote yet winning the electoral college). Nothing about Trump's presidency, not even his impeachment, seems to have changed anything about Americans' opinion of him: most dislike him, often very strongly, but there are enough people who'd consider voting for him to put him over the top. However, I think it's going to be a close election.

My gut feeling is that Sanders is the Democratic candidate with the best chance of unseating Trump. I know he's widely believed to be unelectable, but 2016 shattered my ideas about who was electable and who wasn't, and Sanders seems to have the same populist streak that Trump managed to tap into. Trump didn't win because half of Americans are deplorables, he won because the white working class feels very anxious about the future and with good reason, and neither the Republican establishment (before Trump) nor the Democratic establishment had an answer for them. I even feel that Sanders has a bit of politically incorrect cred (like Bloomberg), what with his supporters being tarred with the moniker of "Bernie Bros" by the Democratic establishment, as if they were rapey frat boys.

This said, I'm not American and I don't even follow American news, other than FiveThirtyEight whose coverage of the Democratic primaries I've started following religiously. So for those of you who think Sanders's "socialism" is a non-starter in American media, you may very well be right. But at this point nobody really knows who is electable and who isn't; FiveThirtyEight even had an article about it. As soon as the Democrats win or lose the 2020 election, it'll instantly become obvious that they were destined to win/lose with their choice of candidate, but until that time there's just no way to know.
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Old 03-02-2020, 11:02 PM
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If Bloomberg is the Dem candidate, I'll vote for Cthulhu, because why pick the lesser evil?

If Bernie wins the Dem nod, Tramp's rants and built-in electoral advantage will prevail.

If Biden is it, Tramp will declare martial law because virus. Election? Sorry, the nation's under quarantine, Blue states, anyway. And liberal enclaves. Biden scares Tramp shitless so expect further abuses of presidential power aimed at destroying Joe and suppressing votes.
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Old 03-03-2020, 12:35 AM
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The Biden/Klobuchar ticket beats Trump. Trump beats Bernie and whoever.
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Old 03-03-2020, 04:22 AM
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Trump beats Bernie no matter what. I think Biden can beat Trump with the right VP, he can't pull a Hillary with the VP pick.
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:14 AM
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Russia.
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:51 AM
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If Biden is the nominee, I think he'll win. It'll be close, but I think he'll flip enough states, with perhaps 1-2 to spare.

If Sanders is the nominee, I think he gets slaughtered. Trump wins handily.
Interesting - I got the exact opposite crystal ball. Biden loses handily to Trump, Sanders crushes him in a landslide.

Biden's only pitch is "Not Trump, not exactly". Sanders actually has policies and ideas and shit, including a lot of things that a majority of Americans (Republicans included !) want - taxing the cocks off the rich, M4A, maybe possibly doing something about climate change eventually, possibly probably not being a sex creep enabling other sex creeps... I think anybody with a brain would vote for him ; the only question being "how many Americans do not, in fact, have a brain ?"

Then again I thought the same about Jeremy Corbyn, so cum grano salis it all up.

Last edited by Kobal2; 03-03-2020 at 05:53 AM.
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:16 AM
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The single individual most likely to win is Trump. The party most likely to win is Democratic. I can't say that Sanders (or Biden) is most likely to win, because even if he would probably (but not certainly!) beat Trump in the general, he still has to win the Democratic nomination first, and right now, that looks pretty close to 50-50 between Sanders and Biden. So overall, maybe something like 40% Trump, 30% Biden, 30% Sanders (plus assorted other candidates who aren't completely eliminated yet, and of course with wide error bars on all those numbers).
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:32 AM
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Trump vs. Biden - Trump. Narrowly, but the incumbent has the edge when the economy is doing well.

Trump vs. Bloomberg - Trump. Somewhat less narrowly - nobody does bombastic New York billionaire like Trump.

Trump vs. Warren - Trump, rather easily. It's not fair to beat up old ladies, but who said anything about fair?

Trump vs. Sanders - Trump, and it wouldn't be close. Bernie's best bet might be to have another heart attack during a debate and hope for the sympathy vote.

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Old 03-03-2020, 08:16 AM
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Interesting - I got the exact opposite crystal ball. Biden loses handily to Trump, Sanders crushes him in a landslide.

Biden's only pitch is "Not Trump, not exactly". Sanders actually has policies and ideas and shit, including a lot of things that a majority of Americans (Republicans included !) want - taxing the cocks off the rich .....
I wish people would understand that seeking a fair distribution of wealth is not "taxing the cocks off the rich." People need to understand the distinction between "the rich" and "the billionaire class, gigantic multinational holding companies, and ultra-high-stakes stock gamblers." They need to understand the difference between someone like .... oh, let's say, the richest individual that they are likely to personally know, and someone like Mike Bloomberg.

Picture the richest person you know. Here, I'll describe the richest person that *I* know. He has two absolutely amazing estates with spectacular houses, in two different countries; he built (and then sold) two very successful businesses, he dabbled in the entertainment industry, and for the past 20 years he has done essentially nothing other than travel around all over the globe hunting, fishing, and skiing. His name is virtually unknown to the public, but he is close friends with numerous A-list musicians and actors, and he has partied with Bob Dylan and Hunter S. Thompson. Imagine "the high life" and this guy has lived it.

Compared to Mike Bloomberg, he is nothing. NOTHING. NOTHING. NOTHING. Absolutely NOTHING. Compared to the amassed wealth of even someone with ONE billion dollars, his net worth would be considered pathetic. PATHETIC! And that's compared to someone with ONE billion dollars. Let me show you a graphic of Mike Bloomberg's wealth versus the other candidates. Take a good long look at this. Look at that really goddamn good and hard and let it sink in.

THAT is the wealth that Bernie wants to redistribute. And calling it "wealth" isn't even doing justice to what it represents. It's POWER. Like, Superman level power. Zeus and Thor level power. It goes way, way, way, WAY beyond "the rich" and taxing their cocks off.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:32 AM
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My thinking is like this:

Bernie would lose to Trump. Why? Because if he's in the race, he represents a stark choice between his brand of "socialism" and Trump's brand of... whatever it is, but it's not socialist. A LOT of people are going to be turned off more by Bernie than they already are by Trump- Bernie represents turning over the applecart in some ways that Trump does not. And for most people, Trump's real impact has been in all the sewer gas coming out of his mouth, not in the actual actions. So Bernie will represent a real unknown to them and his whole platform is based on change, and as most people fear the unknown and change, they'll vote Trump.

Any moderate Democrat might well beat Trump. Why? Because assuming all else is equal vs. 2016, the moderate Democrat has two large advantages Hillary did not. Number one, that person is NOT Hillary. She was a very polarizing candidate due to a lot of her baggage from being First Lady, a Senator and Secretary of State- to a whole lot of people, the election was as much voting against Hillary as it was voting for the GOP or Trump. Second, there's a considerable number of people who may have voted for Trump under the assumption that the GOP party apparatchiks and organization would rein him in and show him how to be a proper President. The exact opposite has happened, and he's proven himself a crook, a liar and a generally all around odious character, and this contingent of people won't vote for him again.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:49 AM
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There's one thing I need to point out, though. At this point it seems that the Democratic nomination is down to Biden or Sanders. If Sanders is nominated, and ends up losing in November, we already know that the Democratic establishment will say that it was obvious he had no chance to win, and therefore the loss is his and his fans' fault. But one thing I've noticed looking through these threads on the SDMB is that if Biden is nominated, and ends up losing in November, many people will blame "Bernie Bros" staying home instead of going out to vote for Biden. So no matter who the Democratic nominee is, if he loses, it's Bernie Sanders's fault. (I guess that if Biden wins, his personal qualities will have been what put him over the top, while if Sanders wins, it will have been because Trump was so odious that anybody could have won.)

It's hard for me not to view this as an example of partisanship. Sanders is no friend of the Democratic party, he's run as an independent for most of his political career and has been very critical of the Democratic establishment. This, more than the socialism, means partisan Democrats don't like him and are willing to blame him for any defeat they'll suffer. But if Biden gets the nomination, then it's his job to unite the Democratic party and run a campaign that'll convince Americans to vote for him. It's perfectly possible that Biden will end up being a terrible candidate or run a terrible campaign and lose against Trump, without it somehow being Sanders's fault.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:56 AM
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2000 years ago there was a prominent Jewish socialist and you know what they did to him.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:58 AM
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Bernie, on the other hand, has a real movement behind him. He has a lot of genuinely passionate and boundlessly enthusiastic supporters. Plus, unlike Biden and Bloomberg, he has a distinct platform that sets him apart. Everyone knows what Bernie stands for. Thatís half the battle right there. Bernie has a real shot. I cant say Iím 100% confident heíll beat Trump but Iím a hell of a lot more confident in him than I am in the other two.
I think with Sanders. . . the truth is, he's really not very well known right now, at least when compared to Trump. If he gets the nomination he will get a MASSIVE amount of exposure really quickly. And when he does, some of the statements he's made and how they are perceived by the MASSES could change his appeal. I mean the things he's said about the Cuba literacy program, The Boston Bomber's vote, Bread-lines are a sign of prosperity, etc. . . . he talks a lot. I think we've yet to hear the full-depth of what's he's said, but we will when he becomes THE candidate. And that could change things.

Last edited by tullsterx; 03-03-2020 at 11:58 AM.
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Old 03-03-2020, 12:33 PM
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2000 years ago there was a prominent Jewish socialist and you know what they did to him.
I almost wrote "This, more than the socialism, means partisan Democrats don't like him and are willing to use him as a scapegoat for any defeat" but then decided against it.
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Old 03-03-2020, 01:07 PM
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Who do you think WILL win the presidency in 2020?

I continue to have no fucking clue. None.
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Old 03-03-2020, 02:12 PM
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2000 years ago there was a prominent Jewish socialist and you know what they did to him.
Elected him senator from Vermont? Has he been in office THAT long?
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Old 03-03-2020, 02:46 PM
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Trump will win.

Trump is who we are, and who we will be until a real crisis (not some rando virus or economic downturn) bashes some reality into our collective heads and we refuse to indulge charlatans. Biden is boring. He can put us back to where Trump took over, IF congress will cooperate with him. But where Obama left us was "in the mood for Trump", so screw that. Sanders is who we need AFTER a real crisis bashes some reality into our collective heads. His way requires cooperation and personal sacrifice, but we as a society are...Trump.
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Old 03-03-2020, 02:57 PM
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I'm not sure who can beat Tramp because much can happen before November. I *AM* sure that Tramp fears Biden *WILL* beat him, and he thinks he can trample any other Dem underfoot. Thus the orange terror will keep pushing Bernie and trying to destroy Biden. Don't be surprised if DoJ pursues Biden relatives.
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Old 03-03-2020, 03:05 PM
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At the moment I think Trump wins against all the remaining potential democratic contenders - but out of all of them, Bernie may come closest to defeating him.
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Old 03-03-2020, 03:12 PM
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Interesting - I got the exact opposite crystal ball. Biden loses handily to Trump, Sanders crushes him in a landslide.

Biden's only pitch is "Not Trump, not exactly". Sanders actually has policies and ideas and shit, including a lot of things that a majority of Americans (Republicans included !) want - taxing the cocks off the rich, M4A, maybe possibly doing something about climate change eventually, possibly probably not being a sex creep enabling other sex creeps... I think anybody with a brain would vote for him ; the only question being "how many Americans do not, in fact, have a brain ?"
Anybody with a brain knows that Bernie's policies will be dead before he ever takes the oath, and so there's no point in electing him.

Like you, I suspect many people don't have a brain, and so they'll vote for him based solely on the promises.
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Old 03-03-2020, 03:21 PM
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Trump either way.

Sorry, but I think Trump will beat Biden senseless, if Biden has any senses left by then. I mean, seriously, he's always been a gaffe machine, and now he's a senile gaffe industrial complex. Can his VP pick invoke the 25th amendment before the election? And my feeling is if Biden does not win the nomination COMPLETELY cleanly, there will be chaos in the party and the vote will be depressed.

Bernie has made a mistake by identifying himself as a socialist, democratic or otherwise. I mean, the damage is done, there's really nothing he can do about that now except hope that the Republicans don't message that effectively. He is banking on there being massive new turnout to win, and so far there is little evidence that's happening.

Obviously there isn't a single thing about Trump that isn't baked into the cake already.

This is of course completely up in the air if there's a brokered convention. All hell will break loose and who knows what will happen.

Last edited by Ashtura; 03-03-2020 at 03:23 PM.
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Old 03-03-2020, 08:21 PM
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Unfortunately, I think it's going to be the "Saffron Strongman." The Democrats are NOT filling me with hope that their "champion" can defeat the Mango Menace.
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Old 03-03-2020, 08:27 PM
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If Biden is the nominee, I think he'll win. It'll be close, but I think he'll flip enough states, with perhaps 1-2 to spare.

If Sanders is the nominee, I think he gets slaughtered. Trump wins handily.
I don't think Sanders gets slaughtered, but he gets beaten somewhat comfortably by someone who might otherwise be defeated comfortably. Sanders won't be another McGovern or Mondale or Goldwater, but he could be another Kerry.
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Old 03-03-2020, 08:37 PM
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Trump will win.

Trump is who we are, and who we will be until a real crisis (not some rando virus or economic downturn) bashes some reality into our collective heads and we refuse to indulge charlatans. Biden is boring. He can put us back to where Trump took over, IF congress will cooperate with him. But where Obama left us was "in the mood for Trump", so screw that. Sanders is who we need AFTER a real crisis bashes some reality into our collective heads. His way requires cooperation and personal sacrifice, but we as a society are...Trump.
This.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:02 PM
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My thinking is like this:

Bernie would lose to Trump. Why? Because if he's in the race, he represents a stark choice between his brand of "socialism" and Trump's brand of... whatever it is, but it's not socialist.
The word you're looking for is "fascism".
  #44  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:10 PM
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Bernie would get slaughtered. He's way too far left to get the vote of the moderates who don't like 46-1. Someone more centrist, like Biden, is the lesser of two evils.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Spiderman View Post
Bernie would get slaughtered. He's way too far left to get the vote of the moderates who don't like 46-1. Someone more centrist, like Biden, is the lesser of two evils.
I've long identified as a rad-lib. 1980 was the last time I voted for a Dem presidential candidate. I supported Bernie in the 2016 primary. But Tramp is anxious to run against Bernie, not Biden. Policy promises are nice. But evicting Tramp from DC takes priority over all else. I fear that when Biden gets the nomination, Tramp will pull some terrible trick to maintain his grip on power. I sure hope I'm wrong.

If the election isn't compromised, Biden wins. Otherwise the orange terror runs rampant.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Urbanredneck View Post
Sanders if the democrats allow him.

..
The democrats dont "allow" anything. It's the voters dammit.
  #47  
Old 03-04-2020, 12:19 AM
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Right now, my money is on Biden. He's long been called "Pennsylvania's third Senator." If he can get it to flip from 2016, I think he's the favorite.
Yes, Biden has the best chance of beating Trump. Joe will lose only if Sanders takes his ball and goes home. This is, sadly- quite likely.


Sanders can also. Bernie will lose only if the Kremlin and the GOP spring some sort of surprise. This is, sadly- quite likely.
  #48  
Old 03-04-2020, 02:22 PM
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2000 years ago there was a prominent Jewish socialist and you know what they did to him.
He got what he deserved.
  #49  
Old 03-05-2020, 04:52 AM
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One thing we can be sure of: no matter whether the Democrats run with Biden or Sanders (or, although unlikely, Warren), if that person loses to Trump, all we'll hear for the next four years is "You should have picked the other person!"
  #50  
Old 03-05-2020, 05:55 AM
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Prior to COVID-19, I would have said Trump. Now, I'm less certain. As can be expected, the Trump administration is displaying their usual levels of ineptness, and Trump himself is being his usual incompetent self. Of course, this will not budge the needle on the 40% that adore Dear Leader, but for the small number of people that can swing an election, it could be critical. Now, I personally think that coronavirus will burn out in May/June. If it doesn't, and it kills a substantial number of people (or creates real economic loss on middle America), then that could cause Trump to lose.

So, overall, my prediction is still Trump, but COVID-19 + incompetence could equal a loss.
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