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Old 02-10-2020, 09:19 AM
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South Carolina Primary Discussion


I know it's early to start this but I saw this article in Politico. I think the also-rans will be done after South Carolina. Steyer may get a lot of delegates in SC but what is that worth if he doesn't get delegates anywhere else? Looks like Biden might be set up for a huge disappointment.

The article says Bernie is third and one big question the SC primary would answer is how well Buttigeg and Warren do outside their home territory. Will SC results tank any of their chances for winning the nomination? Perhaps we should table that question until after the NH primary.

Besides that, suppose Bernie comes out of South Carolina as the clear leader? Not being a Dem myself, I'm curious how the Dems on this board will view a Non-Democrat winning their party's nomination.
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Old 02-10-2020, 09:23 AM
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I'm OK with Sanders except Trump will be ready to bash him non stop and I don't see Sanders beating Trump. They will make people think Sanders is related to Karl Marx. And I'm sure they will somehow go after him for being a Jew.
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Old 02-10-2020, 12:48 PM
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Is he really? I hadn't known that. If he wins, they will just say Israel is behind it.
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Old 02-10-2020, 12:52 PM
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Trump will be ready to bash him non stop
As opposed to?
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Old 02-11-2020, 07:28 AM
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I think the bashing of Sanders will be more effective since he's viewed as far left. Of course Trump will bash any Dem who runs in the general election.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:38 AM
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I can’t judge a state by ten days on the ground there, but it seemed like a very politically apathetic state when I was there in late November/early December. It must be tough being a Dem in such a red state knowing you’ll never win anything except your gerrymandered house seats.

It’s definitely going to be an interesting race. Pete has a skeletal staff there, they’re working hard, but it just seemed to me like talking the primary there was like selling Christmas trees on the 4th of July.

Bernie is going to be a tough sell in SC. There’s not any real area of the state I can think of that’s a liberal oasis in the sea of red. Maybe downtown Greenville, but that strikes me as more college educated Buttigieg/Warren types. Neither USC (the Cocks one) or Clemson is a real hotbed of political activism.

Steyer has been bombarding the state with ads and I mean bombing! The over 50 type that still watch TV and listen to the radio will get a minimum of 15 Steyer ads a day and likely many more.

It’s not a great state for Pete or Warren, obviously if Pete does well in NH, that’s worth something. Another weak 3rd in NH won’t help Warren. Let’s see what Klobuchar does in NH before thinking she’s got mush of a chance. I would find it highly unlikely that she’s got much staff in SC given she’s been way behind the big 4 in fundraising.

Usually the NH winner or big loser gets more news than NV. NV is such a mess being impossible to poll as well as basically being the union endorsements plus whatever Reid is up to that it doesn’t get as much coverage.
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Old 02-12-2020, 10:22 AM
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Biden is done but has a lot of support among African-Americans.
Which of the 4 (Bernie, Pete, Amy, Mike) has the best chance of picking up black votes in SC?
Or better yet, will they be able to pick up those votes or will African-Americans still vote for Joe "Dead man walking" Biden?
What will the effect of Steyer be? I think he may pick up a few delegates just to release them later when he drops out.

Last edited by Saint Cad; 02-12-2020 at 10:24 AM.
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Old 02-12-2020, 10:47 AM
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Biden is done but has a lot of support among African-Americans.
Which of the 4 (Bernie, Pete, Amy, Mike) has the best chance of picking up black votes in SC?
Or better yet, will they be able to pick up those votes or will African-Americans still vote for Joe "Dead man walking" Biden?
What will the effect of Steyer be? I think he may pick up a few delegates just to release them later when he drops out.
Mike isnít on the ballot. Steyer wonít make the next debate.

I just canít see SC being strong for Bernie. Itís a conservative state and I also doubt Bernie will spend a bunch of time or resources there, looking forward to Super Tuesday.

In fact, I think that will be a huge issue for all the candidates who have basically triaged South Carolina to Biden early on. No one expected this hard of a fall for Biden. Does a win in SC help with Super Tuesday? Maybe, but any candidate has to hope it wonít get crowded out by a major news event. That Saturday primary doesnít help at all.
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Old 02-12-2020, 11:36 AM
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With the apparent demise of Biden, it's very much a question mark where his base of moderate, older blacks goes. Historically, these voters have favored familiar, experienced faces, so I think Bernie may pick up a lot more of them than a strictly ideological paradigm would expect. I also think these voters are more prone than most Democrats to doubt that a woman or gay man can win in November. And with Bloomberg's dubious civil rights record, all the remaining candidates have something that will turn these voters off.
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Old 02-12-2020, 12:08 PM
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Biden is done but has a lot of support among African-Americans.
....
Saying that over and over doesnt make it true.. No one expected him to win in iowa or NH. His real test is SD. And he is still polling very well.
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Old 02-12-2020, 12:17 PM
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His real test is SD.
Oh, dear God, if the Democrats are still going at it on June 2 I really am going to look into the whole "medically-induced coma" thing.

(You've said SD like three times today, man! )
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Old 02-12-2020, 12:21 PM
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S/He’s right, though. The real test is who wins Cecil Adams’ endorsement.
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Old 02-12-2020, 12:35 PM
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No one expected him to win in iowa or NH.
This is overstating it -- up until the last few weeks before the caucus, Biden was a good bet to win. Then the polling indicated he was unlikely to win. But he did even more poorly in both states than expected -- especially NH. Perception matters, even beyond just 1st place -- and right now, AFAICT, the perception is that Biden is faltering. If the SC voters aren't strongly behind him (and we'll see how strongly they are), then many of them might switch to other candidates.
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Old 02-12-2020, 01:36 PM
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This is overstating it -- up until the last few weeks before the caucus, Biden was a good bet to win. Then the polling indicated he was unlikely to win. But he did even more poorly in both states than expected -- especially NH. Perception matters, even beyond just 1st place -- and right now, AFAICT, the perception is that Biden is faltering. If the SC voters aren't strongly behind him (and we'll see how strongly they are), then many of them might switch to other candidates.
I think that if Biden doesn't win South Carolina, he's done, since that is where he is supposed to shine as the favored candidate of minority voters (of which there are a significant numbers in that state).

Meanwhile, I think if Sanders does really well there and Nevada (say, top 2 in both), it will prove that he has appeal with minority voters; couple that with his showing in the first two (mainly white) primaries and I think he has the inside track.

The issue is who minority Dems will vote for; if Bernie has their support, I believe that he's going to be nominated.
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Old 02-12-2020, 01:45 PM
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If Steyer does not do well, then he's done and should withdraw.

If Sanders does well, e.g., first or very strong second, then it is probably all over. South Carolina, as others have pointed out, should be a weakness for Sanders, so if he crushes it there, the only way he doesn't get the nomination is if the DNC stacks the deck against him hard. And if that happens, the Democrats will lose the election. It could conceivably split the part for an extended period of time. Not that this might prevent the DNC from doing it. Sadly the USA has two parties, the party for the rich and the party for the super-rich.

And it looks like, according to 538, Sanders is expected to do at least ok. In my biased opinion, I'm pleased to see this because I would like to see Sanders get the nomination, and I'd especially like to see Sanders win. I think Sanders has as good a chance of beating Trump as anybody, although I think Trump will win.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...outh-carolina/

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Old 02-12-2020, 02:00 PM
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If South Carolina was coming up next and Nevada the week after, I think Biden would have a slight chance to bounce back. However, I assume he will get a weak 3rd at best in Nevada. Unfortunately for him in that scenario the narrative will be that he not only did poorly in two mostly white states, but in a state with a larger minority population. I think that will be enough to crater his support even in a largely African-American state. Who does that leave as the beneficiary? I'm going to predict Bernie to finish first in the low 30s on the strength of the white vote. Given Mayor Pete's problems winning minority voters, that leaves Klobuchar as the likely beneficiary and I'm going to predict she comes in 2nd. 3rd place will be either Mayor Pete or Biden, depending on just how poorly Biden does in Nevada. Warren will end up in 5th.
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Old 02-12-2020, 02:07 PM
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If South Carolina was coming up next and Nevada the week after, I think Biden would have a slight chance to bounce back. However, I assume he will get a weak 3rd at best in Nevada. Unfortunately for him in that scenario the narrative will be that he not only did poorly in two mostly white states, but in a state with a larger minority population. I think that will be enough to crater his support even in a largely African-American state. Who does that leave as the beneficiary? I'm going to predict Bernie to finish first in the low 30s on the strength of the white vote. Given Mayor Pete's problems winning minority voters, that leaves Klobuchar as the likely beneficiary and I'm going to predict she comes in 2nd. 3rd place will be either Mayor Pete or Biden, depending on just how poorly Biden does in Nevada. Warren will end up in 5th.
Klobuchar historically hasn't done well with minority voters either, I wouldn't assume that they will go to her rather than to Pete.
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Old 02-12-2020, 02:20 PM
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If Steyer does not do well, then he's done and should withdraw.

If Sanders does well, e.g., first or very strong second, then it is probably all over. South Carolina, as others have pointed out, should be a weakness for Sanders, so if he crushes it there, the only way he doesn't get the nomination is if the DNC stacks the deck against him hard. And if that happens, the Democrats will lose the election. It could conceivably split the part for an extended period of time. Not that this might prevent the DNC from doing it. Sadly the USA has two parties, the party for the rich and the party for the super-rich.

And it looks like, according to 538, Sanders is expected to do at least ok. In my biased opinion, I'm pleased to see this because I would like to see Sanders get the nomination, and I'd especially like to see Sanders win. I think Sanders has as good a chance of beating Trump as anybody, although I think Trump will win.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...outh-carolina/
Always the conspiracy theories with Sanders supporters. It gets really old.

Steyer is probably out soon anyway, it looks like he wonít make the debate stage and I think thatís what he wanted
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Old 02-12-2020, 02:32 PM
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I don't think it's a conspiracy theory -- it seems pretty clear, and pretty out in the open, that the DNC doesn't really like Bernie. However, I think this is to his benefit, because the DNC makes it so damn obvious, and they're so incompetent at it. The moment the DNC embraces Bernie (which will come if he becomes the presumptive nominee), I'm not sure if he (or his supporters) would really know what to do -- he's so used to being the angry outsider revolutionary, what would he do as part of the establishment?

I am a Bernie supporter, by the way. We live in weird times.
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Old 02-12-2020, 02:55 PM
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Biden wins South Carolina

But his campaign is sinking
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Old 02-12-2020, 03:03 PM
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Always the conspiracy theories with Sanders supporters. It gets really old.

Steyer is probably out soon anyway, it looks like he wonít make the debate stage and I think thatís what he wanted
I'm not so sure I would qualify myself as a Sanders supporter given that I will never vote for him (or against him for that matter). I just think Sanders would be good for the USA, if for no other reason, then to dispel a lot of the myths (lies) about socialism and how it would destroy the country.

In any case, there is plenty of evidence to suggest strong bias against Sanders in the left progressive mainstream media (MSNBC, Washington Post, etc.), which is a reflection of the DNC (or perhaps vice versa). Again, unfortunately for Americans you have two parties. One party wants to give 11 of 12 cookies to the rich, 1 cookie to the middle class, and crumbs to the poor. The other party wants to give 10 cookies to the super-rich, 2 cookies to the rich, a f*ck you to the middle class and poor (oh and a promise of no gun control and no abortions to the middle class and poor).

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Old 02-12-2020, 03:18 PM
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No one expected him to win in iowa or NH. His real test is SD. And he is still polling very well.
Why South Dakota?
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Old 02-12-2020, 03:35 PM
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Biden wins South Carolina

But his campaign is sinking
At this point, I really donít think so. Iím reminded of the fact that Obama didnít start polling well among black voters until he started winning primaries amongst white voters - I think this reflects a pragmatism that is focused on voting for a winner. But now that Biden isnít looking like that winner, I think black voters will abandon ship. And I believe that Sanders talks to them about their concerns, so he has the best shot at gathering their votes. If you win the black vote, you win the South Carolina Democratic primary.

(I say this as somebody who isnít a Sanders supporter, although Iím more on the fence than I was before the first two primaries. In the interest of disclosure, Iím also not a black voter).
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Old 02-12-2020, 03:49 PM
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1. If South Carolina was coming up next and Nevada the week after, I think Biden would have a slight chance to bounce back. However, I assume he will get a weak 3rd at best in Nevada. Unfortunately for him in that scenario the narrative will be that he not only did poorly in two mostly white states, but in a state with a larger minority population. I think that will be enough to crater his support even in a largely African-American state.

2. Who does that leave as the beneficiary? I'm going to predict Bernie to finish first in the low 30s on the strength of the white vote. Given Mayor Pete's problems winning minority voters, that leaves Klobuchar as the likely beneficiary and I'm going to predict she comes in 2nd. 3rd place will be either Mayor Pete or Biden, depending on just how poorly Biden does in Nevada. Warren will end up in 5th.
1. I agree, if SC were next or even NV and SC a few days from now that would be one thing. But it's likely another weak showing in NV in 10 days and 17 days till SC. With 'horse race' media coverage harping that entire time on how badly Biden did, which anonymous (or maybe even on the record) operatives and donors think he should quit, his sinking national poll numbers (and they absolutely will decline), etc.

And particularly one the idea for whom is 'electability' IOW somebody you vote for because you think he or she is relatively more acceptable to other voters. Striking out in IA/NH doesn't literally disprove that, since it's a different electorate in later primaries and the general. But again in reality it tends to undermine that type of candidate particularly badly. Also election discussion on internet is typically among people highly interested in politics. To a lot of people even who vote in primaries, this is just starting now. Previous poll preferences for Biden really were I think in part name recognition or a little less shallowly, Obama's VP. You'd also expect a challenge for a name recognition based front runner to keep voters engaged with what he's actually saying v less familiar candidates, once non-political junkies are actually paying attention. If you tank in IA/NH it shows you're not doing that. It's not likely to change dramatically in a different part of the country or w/ different color voters.

Plus he depends a lot on big 'establishment' donor money, which is particularly fickle. There's no grass roots cult of personality around Joe Biden, for better or worse.

He's basically toast IOW. And that's not just repeating something till it's true, it's just how it tends to work in this kind of situation with that type of candidate

2. That one I think is a lot harder to say. But as you suggest 'doesn't do well with black voters*' is a label affixed or which plausibly could be to every significant candidate except Biden. But I really do think Biden is a goner, and somebody will get those votes, or rather the implication of votes from polls taken before most people are paying much attention, which really starts after IA/NH, very few polls elsewhere so far reflect what happened to Biden there.

*some comments say 'minorities' but I see even less basis to say Latino, Asian or whatever other categories of voter one would include as 'minority' won't vote for various candidates besides Biden or what strong preferences they'd have among them.
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Old 02-12-2020, 04:23 PM
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*some comments say 'minorities' but I see even less basis to say Latino, Asian or whatever other categories of voter one would include as 'minority' won't vote for various candidates besides Biden or what strong preferences they'd have among them.

Bernie leads Latinos and the catchall "other minorities" group by a wider margin than Biden leads among blacks, so yeah...
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Old 02-12-2020, 06:11 PM
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..
If Sanders does well, e.g., first or very strong second, then it is probably all over. South Carolina, as others have pointed out, should be a weakness for Sanders, so if he crushes it there, the only way he doesn't get the nomination is if the DNC stacks the deck against him hard. ..]
The DNC can do very little to "stack the deck". In 2018 they gave Hillary hints as to the questions for one debate, which had no significant difference.

It's the voters, not the DNC that decides things, and in 2016 the voters overwhelmingly picked Clinton. Your guy lost. Get over it.
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Old 02-12-2020, 06:12 PM
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Why South Dakota?
SC.
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Old 02-12-2020, 06:14 PM
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I don't think it's a conspiracy theory -- it seems pretty clear, and pretty out in the open, that the DNC doesn't really like Bernie. ....s.
Why should they? It is the Democratic National Committee, and bernie is not a democrat.

Should the DNC support trump too?

but there is almost nothing the DNC can do, the voters decide.
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Old 02-12-2020, 06:29 PM
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The DNC can do very little to "stack the deck". In 2018 they gave Hillary hints as to the questions for one debate, which had no significant difference.

It's the voters, not the DNC that decides things, and in 2016 the voters overwhelmingly picked Clinton. Your guy lost. Get over it.
Not my guy so nothing to get over, but uhhh whatever.
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Old 02-12-2020, 06:38 PM
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Why should they? It is the Democratic National Committee, and bernie is not a democrat.



Should the DNC support trump too?



but there is almost nothing the DNC can do, the voters decide.
Where did I say they should? They're a good foil for Bernie. And I agree, there's very little they can do - which is why they've been so ineffective in their efforts to stop Bernie.

So Bernie gets the best of both worlds - a centrist, corporate friendly foil that legit opposes him, giving him major outsider cred, but they're so weak and ineffective, and yet at the same time so obvious, that their efforts do little more than enhance his credibility and tarnish their own.

Thanks, DNC!
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Old 02-12-2020, 08:15 PM
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Not seeing much engagement around the Upstate of South Carolina. Zero yard signs along my route to work. Talk among coworkers takes the form of trying to choose the least unpalatable selection with not a hint of excitement about a candidate they are eager to support.
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Old 02-12-2020, 08:21 PM
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I'm in Charleston. I've seen Kamala, Pete, Bernie, Warren and a lot of others here. But we're a strong blue section of a red state.

Though we did elect our first D congressman in SC-01 since Nixon. So we got that going for us, anyway.

Still, this thing is a mess here. Everyone seems to assume Biden's got the African-American vote sewn up but I don't see it when I talk to people at D committee meetings. I get a lot of 'we'll see' and 'I'm undecided' from our AA members.
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Old 02-19-2020, 11:46 AM
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Latest poll shows Biden & Sanders tied with Steyer and Buttigieg as the only above 15%. Interestingly Tulsi has 1% support.
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Old 02-19-2020, 11:48 AM
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I do think Steyer starts to drop after he’s not on the debate stage tonight.
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Old 02-21-2020, 10:43 AM
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Biden looks like a solid second place in Nevada. IF he does well, will he get a bump in SC and be looking good going into Super Tuesday?

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Old 02-21-2020, 10:00 PM
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I am ignoring Nevada. South Carolina will make a difference, I suppose. Super Tuesday will end this primary at long last.
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Old 02-22-2020, 10:40 AM
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Latest poll shows Biden & Sanders tied with Steyer and Buttigieg as the only above 15%. Interestingly Tulsi has 1% support.
I traveled through SC a few days before Christmas and saw several Tulsi billboards up along the highway. I did not see any for any other candidate.
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Old 02-23-2020, 02:33 AM
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Saw my first Democratic yard sign here in the Upstate today --- Tom Steyer.

Candidate appearances in the coming week seem to largely be focused in other parts of the state. Columbia, Orangeburg, and Charleston will be getting a lot of attention. Bernie supports are advertising for door knocking events in Clemson but no indication he will appear.
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Old 02-23-2020, 12:09 PM
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God DAMN it, Steyer is back for the next debate. These fucking billionaires.
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:14 PM
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Looks like Biden got a bounce coming out of NV and headed into SC
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Old 02-29-2020, 10:02 AM
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538's final forecast:

popular vote:
40 Biden
21 Sanders
13 Steyer
9 Buttigieg
8 Warren
5 Klobuchar
3 Gabbard

My predictions are that Steyer and Warren switch places and Biden over-performs.
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Old 02-29-2020, 10:15 AM
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I think Biden will do worse than that 40% and I think Sanders will do better than 21%. I will be shocked if Tom Steyer gets double digit support.
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Old 02-29-2020, 10:22 AM
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From what I’ve heard from people volunteering for Pete on the ground there is that a lot of the mild support for Pete/Steyer/Amy is uniting behind Biden in a desperate bid to STOP SANDERS!

The Nevada blowout scared a lot of people, I think Steyer loses the most.

I’ll go with a blowout win for Biden, Sanders second, Pete third. I’m not sure Pete gets to 15% though.
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Old 02-29-2020, 11:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saint Cad View Post
Looks like Biden got a bounce coming out of NV and headed into SC
Yep. I can tell heís back in contention.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/joe...-ouster-report
  #45  
Old 02-29-2020, 12:11 PM
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Funny that SC might save Biden but in the fall he will get blown out there by Trump. Same as every other southern state except Virginia.
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Old 02-29-2020, 12:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
Funny that SC might save Biden but in the fall he will get blown out there by Trump. Same as every other southern state except Virginia.
Funny that we put so much weight on Iowa and NH, even those theirs votes really arent that critical/
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Old 02-29-2020, 01:17 PM
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Looking forward to the results tonight.
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  #48  
Old 02-29-2020, 03:11 PM
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South Carolina has an open primary meaning you can vote for any side regardless of party affiliation.

As such republicans are encouraging Operation Chaos where republicans are encouraging republican voters to vote for Sanders.

I wonder if this will have any effect?
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Last edited by Whack-a-Mole; 02-29-2020 at 03:16 PM.
  #49  
Old 02-29-2020, 03:19 PM
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Funny that we put so much weight on Iowa and NH, even those theirs votes really arent that critical/
I am guessing we put weight on them because they are a first indication of which way voters are leaning.

And yeah, they are not at all representative of the rest of the country demographically but still, it stops the polling guessing game, rubber meets the road kinda thing.

I am dubious of extending those early results to the rest of the country but it is a starting data point.
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Last edited by Whack-a-Mole; 02-29-2020 at 03:21 PM.
  #50  
Old 02-29-2020, 04:04 PM
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What One Trump Supporter Thinks Of The Primary So Far | FiveThirtyEight In South Carolina (2:29 video). They just posted this; it's interesting. I agree with this comment:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandy Bathwater
As much as I disagree with him, I found him a pleasant fellow and was pleased he was treated with respect.
My impression of the gentleman is that he is a very low information voter who is used to catering to his own biases; i.e. a typical Trump supporter.
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