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  #51  
Old 01-18-2019, 06:11 PM
That Don Guy That Don Guy is offline
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Originally Posted by Thing Fish View Post
However...

The Democratic primaries are mostly proportional representation, which almost guarantees a brokered convention if there are more than two serious candidates. This sure seems more likely than not this time around. This scenario would favor candidates who might have won a relatively small share of delegates, but who are at least acceptable to most of the Party. So that could be a realistic path to victory for Biden or Warren.
"Mostly"? The Democratic Party rules require (a) that all primaries are proportional representation, with a 15% threshhold, and (b) something like 3/4 of a state's delegates be decided at Congressional district level.

Also remember that, if it does get to a second ballot, the superdelegates now get to vote.
  #52  
Old 01-18-2019, 07:39 PM
DinoR DinoR is offline
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I think Klobuchar has a real chance to overperform. Partly that's because nobody's talking much about her now so the bar is really low.

Right now the field is mostly filling in on the leftmost/progressive portion of the party. She's center-left and from the midwest where the blue wall crumbled so dramatically in 2016. (Her state, Minnesota still went for Clinton but by a small and smaller than expected margin.) Right now Biden's her major likely competition That IS major competition. Still, he's got some negative perceptions inside the party and she's not an old, white guy.

Minnesota's primary might be March 3rd as well. That's the default if both parties don't agree to a different date in March. Potentially that keeps her in the race even if Feb isn't going great. Scheduling could have a big role on whether she fades and resigns before getting that delegate haul.
  #53  
Old 01-20-2019, 09:53 AM
Mr. Duality Mr. Duality is offline
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Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite View Post
You can get 1,000 to 1 on that. Dem's are already telling Cortez to tone it down. She's not progressive, she's a big time solicists views and a compete lack of understanding on how things work.
I'd take that. Care to formalize a wager?
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  #54  
Old 01-20-2019, 04:38 PM
foolsguinea foolsguinea is offline
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You'll bankrupt him!
  #55  
Old 01-20-2019, 09:53 PM
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1. Sherrod Brown for nominee. (Although I have Harris as close.)
2. Harder on the over-perform choice because it depends whose expectations ... I'm going with Brown here too using current polling as the proxy for expectations and getting the nom would be an over-perform for sure.
3. I think Warren will be the flame out although she will have a solid start. I see her losing steam to younger candidates on Super Tuesday. She actually is authentic with a real life story that should resonate, but she will be trying so hard to show how authentic she is that she will come off as fake and packaged. Gillibrand won't last long but I don't see her as high enough up the pile to count.
4. Sanders is a won't run. The question is if he tries to use his support to anoint someone who has promised various policy initiatives. I could see him promoting Warren for example.
5. There is no one on the list that I would not strongly support over Trump or, in the case of Trump not running, over anyone that the current GOP would put up.
  #56  
Old 01-21-2019, 06:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lumpy View Post
Hillary Clinton will push hard to be renominated.
This will horrify many Democrats who think that would be suicidal for the party.
It will get ugly.
People underestimate the extant to which many politicians run from a sense of duty. Hillary had a long career of public service (as First Lady she was more involved in policy than any First Lady since Eleanor Roosevelt) and ran again in 2016 out of obligation to her country. The same sense of duty will compel her not to run in 2020. HTH.

My answers:

1. Nominee? Biden or Klobuchar

2. Outperform? Klobuchar, Brown, Castro

3. Underperform? Harris

4. Doesn't run? Beto, Bernie

5. Would vote for Pence, Trump or Ryan instead of? Was this a joke question?
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