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  #301  
Old 01-12-2019, 01:09 PM
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From the Jacobin article:

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Gabbard’s objections to US wars spring not from a concern for those parts of the world the US military bombs and invades, but exclusively from a concern about the Americans who fight them. As she told Truthout in 2012, her own military service in Iraq and Kuwait “changed my life completely” and revealed the “tremendous cost of war,” recounting the daily casualties and injuries to US troop she saw when she was deployed in a medical unit.

“The cost of war impacts all of us — both in the human cost and the cost that’s being felt frankly in places like Flint, Michigan, where families and children are devastated and destroyed by completely failed infrastructure because of lack of investment,” she told Glamour magazine in March last year.

This also formed the thrust of her speech at 2012’s (particularly militaristic) DNC, where she told the crowd, “As a combat veteran, I know the costs of war. The sacrifices made by our troops and our military families are immeasurable.”
If you're an anti-war voter, you have to take what you can get. It reminds one of the old saying, "beggars can't be choosers". Anti-war Democrats had to put up with Afghanistan war plodding on for 8 years under Obama, while drone strikes also continued in numerous countries and bombing and troop engagements expanding in others. Hillary in 2016 promised to be even worse. Gabbard is the most outspoken candidate saying that she wants to end the pointless wars that we're currently fighting and avoid starting new ones. Is it really productive to complain that she's not completely ideologically pure in her motives for doing so?
  #302  
Old 01-12-2019, 03:19 PM
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I was there. Crowd size about 1-1.5k, the speeches weren't too long, and Castro was introduced by his mother. Immigration reform, M4A, and universal pre-K were the three main policy points he touched on, but there was more, I'm sure, as I left a little early.
  #303  
Old 01-12-2019, 03:20 PM
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Gabbard isn't going to win. Take it to the bank.
  #304  
Old 01-12-2019, 04:54 PM
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Gabbard isn't going to win. Take it to the bank.
But will she decrease some the money Harris gets to take to the bank that holds her campaign funds?
  #305  
Old 01-13-2019, 12:31 PM
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But will she decrease some the money Harris gets to take to the bank that holds her campaign funds?
I don't think Gabbard will get far enough to have any such impact. Harris is a contender. Gabbard is a "bye, Felicia."
  #306  
Old 01-15-2019, 06:05 PM
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Gillibrand's in.

https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/67829...ntent=20190115
  #307  
Old 01-15-2019, 07:02 PM
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Looks like Sherrod Brown is getting ready to declare his candidacy on MSNBC's Chris Hayes' show this hour.
  #308  
Old 01-15-2019, 07:29 PM
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Looks like Sherrod Brown is getting ready to declare his candidacy on MSNBC's Chris Hayes' show this hour.
Missed the edit window.

Or he's going to announce that he isn't going to run. Should know in a few minutes.

I hope it's yes.
  #309  
Old 01-15-2019, 07:49 PM
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He'd be crazy not to. It looks like he's set to be the establishment candidate.
  #310  
Old 01-15-2019, 07:55 PM
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Hmmm. A "dignity of work" tour sounds like a run-up to a possible run. It's not a yes or no, but definitely keeping his options open. Yaaayyy!!!

Last edited by Aspenglow; 01-15-2019 at 07:57 PM. Reason: One too many "definitelys."
  #311  
Old 01-15-2019, 08:18 PM
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Very interesting, early start to the race. Surprised to see a heavy hitter like Warren jump in early. That's brought Harris in, as well as a lot of 2nd tier contenders. So now we see what Biden and Sanders and Booker do.
  #312  
Old 01-15-2019, 08:28 PM
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Beto, on the other hand, doesn't look like a guy who is going to run to me. He sounded really unsure and uninformed in his Washington Post interview:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.91d32750c667

Questioning whether the US can still be governed by its constitution, that one's going to hang over his head for life if he doesn't figure out a real smart way to clarify that one.
  #313  
Old 01-15-2019, 10:59 PM
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Sherrod Brown launches a listening tour to some states we hear a lot about every four years: https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/15/polit...our/index.html
  #314  
Old 01-16-2019, 11:49 AM
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I heard Sherrod Brown on NPR this morning. He sounded very unprepared for the interview. Maybe because he went off-script to comment on the previous story (veterans lose burn-pit court battle), but I hope his aides scold him for it. If you can't handle impromptu comments, stay on script.
  #315  
Old 01-16-2019, 11:53 AM
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One of the problems with Brown that won't be a huge factor but will be SOME factor and probably means he definitely won't be VP is the fact that Democrats definitely lose his seat until 2022 if he leave the Senate. Kasich appoints his replacement until the end of his term.
  #316  
Old 01-16-2019, 11:59 AM
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Kasich appoints his replacement until the end of his term.
Which expired a couple of days ago. Mike DeWine is now the governor.
  #317  
Old 01-16-2019, 12:01 PM
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Beto, on the other hand, doesn't look like a guy who is going to run to me. He sounded really unsure and uninformed in his Washington Post interview:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.91d32750c667

Questioning whether the US can still be governed by its constitution, that one's going to hang over his head for life if he doesn't figure out a real smart way to clarify that one.
Yeah, I've been cooling quite a bit on Beto in the past few weeks or so. I really hope he doesn't run, as I don't want him to suck up the excitement and headlines and dollars from other candidates. He should run for Senate again in 2020.

At the same time, these are the days for fucking up interviews and getting the kinks out with feedback from staff. Over the next year, the good ones will get better, the rest will fizzle or flame out. And the ones who are completely out of their league will, hopefully, be advised not to run.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 01-16-2019 at 12:02 PM.
  #318  
Old 01-16-2019, 12:18 PM
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Which expired a couple of days ago. Mike DeWine is now the governor.
Oops. But you get the point. Dewine makes that appointment.
  #319  
Old 01-16-2019, 12:19 PM
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Yeah, I've been cooling quite a bit on Beto in the past few weeks or so. I really hope he doesn't run, as I don't want him to suck up the excitement and headlines and dollars from other candidates. He should run for Senate again in 2020.

At the same time, these are the days for fucking up interviews and getting the kinks out with feedback from staff. Over the next year, the good ones will get better, the rest will fizzle or flame out. And the ones who are completely out of their league will, hopefully, be advised not to run.
I don't think Beto has staff right now for a national run. From what I"m reading, all this planning for a Beto run is being done by some really high profile people without his input.
  #320  
Old 01-21-2019, 08:46 AM
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Kamala is in.
  #321  
Old 01-21-2019, 10:03 AM
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Currently in the race:

Julian Castro
John Delaney
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
Richard Ojeda
Elizabeth Warren
Andrew Yang
  #322  
Old 01-21-2019, 10:45 AM
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Nm

Last edited by WillFarnaby; 01-21-2019 at 10:46 AM.
  #323  
Old 01-21-2019, 10:46 AM
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From the Jacobin article:


If you're an anti-war voter, you have to take what you can get. It reminds one of the old saying, "beggars can't be choosers". Anti-war Democrats had to put up with Afghanistan war plodding on for 8 years under Obama, while drone strikes also continued in numerous countries and bombing and troop engagements expanding in others. Hillary in 2016 promised to be even worse. Gabbard is the most outspoken candidate saying that she wants to end the pointless wars that we're currently fighting and avoid starting new ones. Is it really productive to complain that she's not completely ideologically pure in her motives for doing so?
They aren’t looking for an ideologically pure antiwar stance. They are trying to undermine the antiwar stance.

You can test this because these same people will be supporting true hawks, not some obscure true peacenik.
  #324  
Old 01-22-2019, 10:00 AM
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Her official announcement.
  #325  
Old 01-22-2019, 10:23 AM
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I'm actually not as opposed to her as I once was. If she were to be the nominee and pick, oh say, Sherrod Brown as her running mate, I could get behind that. Still ain't my first choice to take on Trump, but I could see a path with the right messaging and running mate.
  #326  
Old 01-22-2019, 11:17 AM
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I learned a new word today: momala, which Kamala uses to describe herself. From googling, it's apparently the woman who mothers your kids, as opposed to your baby-mama who gave birth to them.
  #327  
Old 01-22-2019, 11:40 AM
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On the one hand, it's a great sentiment. On the other hand, using a term from African-American dialect to label yourself is going to mobilize certain segments of the population against you something fierce. On the gripping hand, though, those segments of the population were going to be very tough for any Democrat to reach.
  #328  
Old 01-22-2019, 11:54 AM
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I learned a new word today: momala, which Kamala uses to describe herself. From googling, it's apparently the woman who mothers your kids, as opposed to your baby-mama who gave birth to them.
My googling shows it to be a Yiddish word for "little mother" used as a term of endearment for a little girl.
  #329  
Old 01-22-2019, 12:27 PM
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My googling shows it to be a Yiddish word for "little mother" used as a term of endearment for a little girl.
I'd never heard of the Black Israelites until this week, and now they're all over the place!
  #330  
Old 01-22-2019, 12:28 PM
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I met and heard Harris speak at a backyard fundraiser in NE Ohio about a year ago (along with Sherrod Brown, as it happens). She was OK but not great.
  #331  
Old 01-22-2019, 12:36 PM
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What, who? Every time I see this name I think of Pete Davidson's friend John Mulaney.

...

Uh. That's just Will Ferrell in a bald cap. Is he doing some kind of Sacha Baron Cohen bit?
  #332  
Old 01-22-2019, 12:42 PM
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My googling shows it to be a Yiddish word for "little mother" used as a term of endearment for a little girl.
Isn't that "mamala" instead of "momala"?
  #333  
Old 01-22-2019, 12:44 PM
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I heard Sherrod Brown on NPR this morning. He sounded very unprepared for the interview. Maybe because he went off-script to comment on the previous story (veterans lose burn-pit court battle), but I hope his aides scold him for it. If you can't handle impromptu comments, stay on script.

Brown is the coffee of the day for the Democrats who think he could flip Ohio.

He's not a good speaker, nor is he " famous " As such he will have a tough time standing tall in a crowded field.

Can we win the nomination? In this field, sure. The winner of this race could be an unknown at this point. It's that wide open.
  #334  
Old 01-22-2019, 01:06 PM
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Isn't that "mamala" instead of "momala"?
Maybe, but the term came from her jewish step children and according to an older Vogue article the word was "S-Mamala". And the kids were getting a little old for her to be doing much step-mothering anyway.
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Harris grew close with his two children, who call her their “S-Mamala.” (The elder, Cole, graduated Colorado College last May and is working as an assistant at William Morris Endeavor. The younger, Ella, is a freshman at Parsons School of Design.)
https://www.vogue.com/article/kamala...gue-april-2018
  #335  
Old 01-23-2019, 08:30 AM
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Brown is the coffee of the day for the Democrats who think he could flip Ohio.
"Coffee of the day"?
  #336  
Old 01-23-2019, 08:37 AM
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saw Brown first time on TV, that odd voice of his is going to be a problem for him if he runs. It seemed like sometimes his voice was OK but other times it was the gravelly sound.
  #337  
Old 01-23-2019, 08:49 AM
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Pete Buttigieg is in.

For those who don't know:
Pronounced boot-edge-edge.
37 years old
Mayor of South Bend, IN
Navy vet
Served in Afghanistan
Gay

Probably angling for a veep or cabinet slot
  #338  
Old 01-23-2019, 09:43 AM
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Pete Buttigieg is in.

For those who don't know:
Pronounced boot-edge-edge.
37 years old
Mayor of South Bend, IN
Navy vet
Served in Afghanistan
Gay

Probably angling for a veep or cabinet slot
I heard him give a speech last summer. He was an excellent speaker--dynamic, organized, clearly thoughtful about the issues. (The pronunciation he gave of his name was actually more like Boot-a-geesh...)

Yeah, hard to see how he's going to catch fire here. Part of his problem is that it's difficult to see where he can go in Indiana. His congressional district is pretty Republican, so the House won't be easy; the state leans GOP, so senator or governor won't be easy either; under these circumstances a Cabinet post might make some sense. I'll certainly be interested to see where he heads next.
  #339  
Old 01-23-2019, 10:00 AM
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Here's Wiki on him: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg

Looks like some police issues in his city. Might be a hard sell for black Dems.
  #340  
Old 01-23-2019, 12:48 PM
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Hey Uncle Joe, as you ponder whether or not you run in 2020, maybe take a moment to explain why you were stumping for a Republican congressman (who was entirely beatable) in Michigan just before the 2018 midterms.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 01-23-2019 at 12:49 PM.
  #341  
Old 01-23-2019, 02:41 PM
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The 25 year incumbent who won by 4.5% (during a "blue wave") was entirely beatable?

I don't know how he'd have to spin this in the primaries. "I'm great at bipartisanship!" probably isn't the ticket in 2020.
  #342  
Old 01-23-2019, 03:19 PM
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The 25 year incumbent who won by 4.5% (during a "blue wave") was entirely beatable?
Yeah, he was. Upton was always listed as vulnerable leading up to the election.

The fact that he won by 4.5% doesn't say anything at all about whether he was beatable.
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Old 01-23-2019, 03:53 PM
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The fact that he won by 4.5% doesn't say anything at all about whether he was beatable.
What does?
  #344  
Old 01-23-2019, 04:19 PM
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What does?
And you're arguing this here because...?

Or, I'm not getting drawn in by another CarnalK sidetrack that completely misses the point of the original post.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 01-23-2019 at 04:22 PM.
  #345  
Old 01-23-2019, 04:26 PM
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What does?
Oh fuck it.

You want to know what shows he was beatable? Polls. Leading up to the damn election, Matt Longjohn was shown to be within striking range of knocking off Upton. The fact that Longjohn DIDN'T win doesn't mean that BEFORE the election, people didn't see Upton as vulnerable and beatable.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 01-23-2019 at 04:26 PM.
  #346  
Old 01-23-2019, 05:30 PM
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Here's Wiki on him: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg

Looks like some police issues in his city. Might be a hard sell for black Dems.
A gay white man or any gay man is going to be a really, really hard sell for black Dems, in my opinion. African-Americans seem to me to be more parochial on issues like homosexuality, in the main, than white Democrats. It may be related to higher levels of religious observance, I'm not sure, but it does seem to exist.
  #347  
Old 01-23-2019, 07:48 PM
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Per your link, the explanation seems to be "Because I was paid $200,000 to do so".

Holy shit. That's terrible. Can I assume that all the people who despise Bernie Sanders for not being a "loyal Democrat" will now be calling for Biden to drop out of the race?
  #348  
Old 01-23-2019, 08:05 PM
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Per this 538 article, he won re-election with 80% of the vote in a city that's 46% minority, so it doesn't seem to have been a big problem for him.

Black support for gay marriage is currently at 51%, as opposed to 73% among Democrats. The last time the question was polled, in 2015, only 14% of Democrats said they wouldn't consider voting for a gay Presidential candidate. 14% isn't nothing, but it doesn't seem like an insurmountable obstacle. Among the younger and hipper Democratic voters, gayness could actually be an advantage. It seems like a lot of Democrats think we need to nominate a white man, while a lot of others really want a minority candidate. Here's a guy who could qualify as both! And being gay definitely won't hurt his fundraising from the Hollywood crowd.

I'm actually feeling kind of excited about him. My initial response was "Mayor of South Bend, Indiana? Next.", which I imagine will be the initial response of most voters. But he checks a lot of boxes that people are looking for in the 2020 candidate:

He's young, he's from the Rust Belt, he has an extremely impressive track record of both winning elections and governing effectively, he's a veteran, he has experience successfully campaigning in minority communities, and he seems to be well liked and respected by both the progressive and establishment wings of the Party (a fairly impressive political achievement in itself!).
  #349  
Old 01-23-2019, 11:03 PM
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And you're arguing this here because...?

Or, I'm not getting drawn in by another CarnalK sidetrack that completely misses the point of the original post.
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Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
Oh fuck it.

You want to know what shows he was beatable? Polls. Leading up to the damn election, Matt Longjohn was shown to be within striking range of knocking off Upton. The fact that Longjohn DIDN'T win doesn't mean that BEFORE the election, people didn't see Upton as vulnerable and beatable.
He wasn't within striking range "leadng up to tbe election". A Dem leaning poll company had a big swing in their numbers. And quite clearly, their polling wasn't so great.

Look, I clearly agreed with you that this is a problem for Biden, something that he'll have ti explain. So I don't get why you felt the need to get into bitchy mode with me.

Last edited by CarnalK; 01-23-2019 at 11:04 PM.
  #350  
Old 01-23-2019, 11:46 PM
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Here's the 538 page for the actual district we're talking about:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...se/michigan/6/

Aug R +6.9
Sep R +6.1
Oct R +6.0
Then within 10 days of the election we get one company put out +3.6R and on the eve of the election +.5D. Off by 5 points on the actual results. You're buying into that.

Last edited by CarnalK; 01-23-2019 at 11:51 PM.
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