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  #351  
Old 01-24-2019, 12:09 AM
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Wow, you really put a lot of work into debating a parenthetical aside that has no real bearing on anything being discussed. Well done.

Regarding Buttigeig: I think he'll bring an interesting perspective to the debate stage, but I'd be surprised if he went anywhere besides a short list for veep. If we end up with a mayor for president, I don't see it being a South Bend mayor. But honestly, I don't see any mayor making it to the top of the ticket.
  #352  
Old 01-24-2019, 12:13 AM
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The Republican record for most candidates entering the presidential fray was 17 (the last cycle); what's the Democratic record? It seems like we're already getting halfway to a football team roster.
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Old 01-24-2019, 12:21 AM
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Wow, you really put a lot of work into debating a parenthetical aside that has no real bearing on anything being discussed. Well done.
No, it was actually pretty simple to look up the reality. You should try it.
  #354  
Old 01-24-2019, 07:56 AM
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The Republican record for most candidates entering the presidential fray was 17 (the last cycle)
And they all took turns as the Flavor of the Week, getting each of them some actual examination and prompt dismissal as unqualified, letting the others gang up on them in debates, until it was down to "Ohmygod, he's really going to win, isn't he?"
  #355  
Old 01-24-2019, 09:53 AM
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There's a nice short video for Pete Buttigieg here: https://www.peteforamerica.com/meet-pete/
  #356  
Old 01-24-2019, 07:09 PM
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That ad was not great. Lots of generational identity, not lots of policy. With all the shots of him in fatigues, I actually thought, "So what, he's the gay Tom Cotton?" Which is unfair, but that's because it's a pretty weak and superficial ad.
  #357  
Old 01-24-2019, 08:00 PM
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The Republican record for most candidates entering the presidential fray was 17 (the last cycle); what's the Democratic record? It seems like we're already getting halfway to a football team roster.
Not a very good football team.
  #358  
Old 01-24-2019, 08:02 PM
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Wow, you really put a lot of work into debating a parenthetical aside that has no real bearing on anything being discussed. Well done.

Regarding Buttigeig: I think he'll bring an interesting perspective to the debate stage, but I'd be surprised if he went anywhere besides a short list for veep. If we end up with a mayor for president, I don't see it being a South Bend mayor. But honestly, I don't see any mayor making it to the top of the ticket.
Obviously, though, a campaign that takes him from "small city mayor" to "short list for veep" would be a huge success. I agree with you about mayors in general.
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Old 01-24-2019, 08:07 PM
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Question: if almost winning an election in a red State is now enough to qualify you as a Presidential candidate, why aren't people talking about Stacy Abrams?
  #360  
Old 01-24-2019, 09:10 PM
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Question: if almost winning an election in a red State is now enough to qualify you as a Presidential candidate, why aren't people talking about Stacy Abrams?
Well a) it's not enough. He probably isn't running and it would be a bad idea. He mainly got famous for his robust campaigning and fundraising not for almost winning .

And b) Beto was at least a US Congressman not a state one.
  #361  
Old 01-24-2019, 09:49 PM
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Question: if almost winning an election in a red State is now enough to qualify you as a Presidential candidate, why aren't people talking about Stacy Abrams?
People are. Not a lot of people, but there is some talk.
  #362  
Old 01-24-2019, 10:16 PM
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Had read today more of her being encouraged strongly to run for the state's Senate seat. (Politico)
  #363  
Old 01-24-2019, 11:20 PM
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Well, maybe I would take Stacey Abrams over Beto O'Rourke, if she had some relevant Washington experience and didn't seem focused on reform in Georgia. She's charismatic, and seems like she may be smarter than Beto; but she seems to be a state politician, not a federal politician, right now.

But neither of them are in this race. It seems like it's going to be hard for someone not in the US Senate to get past the leading contenders this time.
  #364  
Old 01-25-2019, 02:53 AM
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Obviously, though, a campaign that takes him from "small city mayor" to "short list for veep" would be a huge success. I agree with you about mayors in general.
Aren't we afraid that mayors are over-qualified for Potus? The front-runner (after Kamala's star fades fast) was a City Councilman (of one of the suburbs of Ciudad Juárez) whose main claims are similar to those of JFK: inherited wealth, youth and a big grin.

JFK and RFO do have one thing in common: the highlights of both their lives were on boats. JFK saved several lives in the PT-109 incident for which he was decorated with the U.S. Navy's highest non-combat award for heroism. RFO was captain of his college's rowing team.
  #365  
Old 01-25-2019, 04:50 AM
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I doubt Pete Buttigieg will get far with his campaign, but I'm wondering if his intent here isn't to win but rather to give the Overton window a shove in the right direction (from his point of view). An openly gay politician running for President will set the media into a tizzy and getting the Republicans clutching their pearls in death grips. But the next time - for him or someone else - the tizzy and pearl gripping will be less...and even less the next time, until eventually all the standard insults and reasons to hyperventilate will be played out and only the diehard bigots will still care.

He's still young and can afford to play the long game. And if not him, maybe someone else like, say, Brian Sims someday.
  #366  
Old 01-25-2019, 09:02 AM
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And any effort the Republicans spend on pearl-grasping over him distracts them away from attacking the real candidates. Yeah, that's probably a useful way to contribute, and about the best that someone in his position can accomplish.
  #367  
Old 01-25-2019, 09:15 AM
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And any effort the Republicans spend on pearl-grasping over him distracts them away from attacking the real candidates. Yeah, that's probably a useful way to contribute, and about the best that someone in his position can accomplish.
If the GOP spends any effort on him, which I kinda doubt, they could highlight the racial animosity in his police department linked above rather than pearl clutching over his gayness. That would not be all that great a contribution to the Dems image.
  #368  
Old 01-25-2019, 08:28 PM
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And just like that, the first casualty of the primary: Ojeda's out.

https://theintercept.com/2019/01/25/...ent-drops-out/
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Old 01-25-2019, 08:40 PM
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I thought he'd be out fast too ... but dang not this fast!
  #370  
Old 01-25-2019, 09:00 PM
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And just like that, the first casualty of the primary: Ojeda's out.

https://theintercept.com/2019/01/25/...ent-drops-out/
Oh yeah, I forgot about that guy. In my defense, a few cycles ago I would never have heard about him in the first place to be able to forget about him.
  #371  
Old 01-25-2019, 09:04 PM
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Sure, CarnalK, if the Republicans were capable of being aware of racial tensions or problems with the police, or of ignoring OMG A GAY MAN!.
  #372  
Old 01-25-2019, 09:09 PM
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What is that in reply to?
  #373  
Old 01-25-2019, 09:48 PM
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Looks like Bernie Sanders is tossing his hat in the ring


Bernie Sanders set to announce 2020 presidential run

I am a fan of Bernie Sanders but I am not sure he should run. I think he is too old at this point to be president. I'd prefer him on the sidelines but still in it as a troublemaker shaking things up.

YMMV
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  #374  
Old 01-25-2019, 10:33 PM
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I'm thinking what he'll mainly accomplish is make Warren's shot a bit more difficult. They overlap in their bases to a great degree. I think Sanders may find much of his small donor base now has other new loves and Warren is more prepared.

In the last cycle Sanders was against an opponent who pulled her punches against him out of fear of pushing his supporters away from coming to her for the general. Warren won't pull any punches and she will destroy him in debates. But he will pull enough that someone that appeals more to the Dem establishment but is still able to sell as "a change agent" will have a better chance.

Him in helps Harris, would help Biden if he runs, and maybe even helps Brown some.
  #375  
Old 01-25-2019, 10:55 PM
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I expect Bernie will do much better than Warren in the primary. I expect Bernie to come in second behind Biden, while I doubt that Warren will actually carry a single state. The reasons being:

1. Bernie has a proven history of standing up for causes that progressives believe in. He's been fighting for government-funded health care and education for many decades and has shown that he's a true believer in those causes. Warren has no such record. She's most famous for being focused on financial regulation, a topic that isn't such a good vote-getter.

2. Bernie has been willing to criticize identity politics and political correctness. Warren never has. Indeed, at times it seems like she's campaigning to be the world's most politically correct person. I have a hunch that Bernie's approach is more popular among Democrats than most people think.

3. Bernie is much better at making the case for his policies in interviews and debates.

4. And Bernie is just more affable.
  #376  
Old 01-26-2019, 12:02 AM
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Warren won't pull any punches and she will destroy him in debates.
Define "destroy".

Warren is a policy wonk. But policy wonks do not do well in debates. Populist types do well in debates and Sanders has her beat there. Not to mention Sanders has been in politics most of his life. He is well versed in running an election and doing well in debates.

I like Warren and she is very smart but it would be foolish to dismiss Sanders out of hand.

That said in the 2016 election Sanders was weirdly a one-track candidate. He seemed to only have one thing he wanted to hammer home (wealth inequality) and never went much further than that.
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  #377  
Old 01-26-2019, 02:24 AM
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Bernie Sanders set to announce 2020 presidential run

I am a fan of Bernie Sanders but I am not sure he should run. I think he is too old at this point to be president. I'd prefer him on the sidelines but still in it as a troublemaker shaking things up.

YMMV
Is that asshole actually on Trump's payroll? The very worst thing for the Democratic party is to bring back Bernie and his Bros, not even Hillary could be worse.
  #378  
Old 01-26-2019, 05:02 AM
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I also hope that competition between the two extreme-lefties leaves both out of the running. I'm not so very opposed to extreme leftism, I just worry about electability. And, as someone points out, electing Sherrod Brown would cost the D's what might be a very important Senate seat. So I'm left to choose from Biden, the dark horse Castro, and
Amy Klobuchar!

Wondering if Amy had declared yet, I clicked to the Wiki list of D's running for Prez. "As of January 2019, 149 individuals have filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for President in the Democratic Party primary" One hundred forty-nine. The Wiki page doesn't list them all, just the "major" and "notable" candidates — I've not even heard of most of those.
  #379  
Old 01-26-2019, 06:08 AM
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All that adulation really did go to his head, didn't it? Does he know that this time he has to be a Democrat to get the Democratic nomination, or is he planning to be just another Nader/spoiler independent?

Well, we'll see if there will still be enough Bros remaining to swing the election to the Republican, whoever that is. He just might be disappointed.
  #380  
Old 01-26-2019, 08:37 AM
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Does he know that this time he has to be a Democrat to get the Democratic nomination, or is he planning to be just another Nader/spoiler independent?
I don't know. What does one have to do to "be a Democrat?" (really asking)
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  #381  
Old 01-26-2019, 08:39 AM
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I also hope that competition between the two extreme-lefties leaves both out of the running.
Considering the left has been moved to the right by the Clintons and Pelosi & Co. "extreme lefties" are just bog standard left from 30+ years ago.
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Old 01-26-2019, 09:36 AM
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Sorry, CarnalK, I was replying to post 367:
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If the GOP spends any effort on him [Buttigieg], which I kinda doubt, they could highlight the racial animosity in his police department linked above rather than pearl clutching over his gayness. That would not be all that great a contribution to the Dems image.
  #383  
Old 01-26-2019, 09:49 AM
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Is that asshole actually on Trump's payroll? The very worst thing for the Democratic party is to bring back Bernie and his Bros, not even Hillary could be worse.
Yeah...god forbid the most popular senator in the US run for president!

Only a Clintonista like you would want to wreck things by being a fan of one of the least popular candidates in US history.

Let that sink in when you decide whose side you are on.
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  #384  
Old 01-26-2019, 01:34 PM
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Joe Biden accepted $200,000 to give speech at 2018 event for Republican Representative Fred Upton, in tough re-election campaign.

On the one hand, Biden does seem to respect Upton sincerely. OTOH, with the D-vs-R war at such a high pitch, is it appropriate to comfort the enemy?
  #385  
Old 01-26-2019, 03:59 PM
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Define "destroy".

Warren is a policy wonk. But policy wonks do not do well in debates. Populist types do well in debates and Sanders has her beat there. Not to mention Sanders has been in politics most of his life. He is well versed in running an election and doing well in debates.

I like Warren and she is very smart but it would be foolish to dismiss Sanders out of hand.

That said in the 2016 election Sanders was weirdly a one-track candidate. He seemed to only have one thing he wanted to hammer home (wealth inequality) and never went much further than that.
"Destroy" as in make end up looking like how Rick Perry came off.

But no I don't "dismiss him out of hand." I do however think that his role is more spoiler than contender.

DrDeth's point is valid btw and one can look no farther than this board to see it: Sanders is a divisive force. Bring him up and posters start insulting each other.

I don't think Silver has any special wisdom when it comes to political analysis that is not the numbers but I still agree with his "5 Corners" bit. The winning candidate will need to prevail in at least three of those corners. Sanders' strongest corner is of course "The Left" and last time he did well with "Millennials and Friends". Two of those corners. Against someone who was very strong with "Party Loyalists" and okay with "Black voters" and "Hispanic/Asian" he lost. This time there is Warren (and to some degree possibly others) making a very solid play for "The Left" as well, and several who will be very appealing to "Millennials and Friends". Lots with strength in those corners means less likelihood any one will be dominant in them, and more probable that winning means appealing more to some of the other corners too. Sanders won't be able to do that. Warren might.
  #386  
Old 01-26-2019, 04:12 PM
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Joe Biden accepted $200,000 to give speech at 2018 event for Republican Representative Fred Upton, in tough re-election campaign.

On the one hand, Biden does seem to respect Upton sincerely. OTOH, with the D-vs-R war at such a high pitch, is it appropriate to comfort the enemy?
Yeah, someone linked that last page. It could be that Biden has discovered he likes cashing cheques more than playing politics. Early in the month he said he would announce his decision within a few weeks.
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Old 01-26-2019, 04:19 PM
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Yeah...god forbid the most popular senator in the US run for president!

Only a Clintonista like you would want to wreck things by being a fan of one of the least popular candidates in US history.

Let that sink in when you decide whose side you are on.
Since you are citing a Gallup poll this far before the primaries begin as evidence of how "popular" Sanders is let me refresh your memory of how Clinton was polling on Gallup early on: a bit better than Sanders does now. Only 14% of Ds viewed her unfavorable but many were still happy to find vote for someone who was new to them instead.

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Joe Biden accepted $200,000 to give speech at 2018 event for Republican Representative Fred Upton, in tough re-election campaign.

On the one hand, Biden does seem to respect Upton sincerely. OTOH, with the D-vs-R war at such a high pitch, is it appropriate to comfort the enemy?
I wish he had thought more about the impact of possibly helping swing a possibly winnable seat, and been more partisan, but it is consistent with his pitch of not being hyperpartisan, and of being able to work across the aisle even in these times. His (honest) pitch is that Trump is evil not Republicans per se and that there are good people to work with to get things done who are on team R. That sort of message sells well in a general. Not so sure Democratic primary voters are going to be receptive to that messaging at this point in time though.
  #388  
Old 01-26-2019, 04:22 PM
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What does one have to do to "be a Democrat?" (really asking)
Declare himself to be one and register to vote as one. He hasn't.
  #389  
Old 01-26-2019, 04:29 PM
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I don't know. What does one have to do to "be a Democrat?" (really asking)
AIUI, in the US Senate, you have to get on the phone 70 hours a week to raise money for the committee instead of serving the people in your constitutional office.
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Old 01-27-2019, 06:59 AM
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Some reporting on the DNC rule, to get rid of the problem of a candidate running for the party's nomination and support, while still thinking he's just too good and pure to be part of it or work for its agenda. It essentially requires a public affirmation, in writing, of membership.
  #391  
Old 01-27-2019, 10:18 AM
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I thought he'd be out fast too ... but dang not this fast!

Ojeda resigned from his WV State Senate seat to focus on running for President and drops out less than two weeks later, allowing the Republican Governor to appoint a coal mining executive as Ojeda's replacement. Idiot.
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Old 01-27-2019, 12:05 PM
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One has to wonder what happened to/with Ojeda. I did have him figured as "most likely to pull a Howard Dean" but his was a unique perspective and I'm kind of sorry to see him go this early.
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Old 01-27-2019, 12:17 PM
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Ojeda resigned from his WV State Senate seat to focus on running for President and drops out less than two weeks later, allowing the Republican Governor to appoint a coal mining executive as Ojeda's replacement. Idiot.
This smells weird. Most people don't give up their office to run for another unless it's a legal requirement. However, the article I just read says this about the appointee:
Quote:
According to [Governor] Justice, Hardesty is the managing member of the government relations firm Capitol Concepts. He also served for 25 years as president of the Logan County Board of Education, a position from which he resigned Thursday.
Which is still messed up but not mining executive messed up. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if most of ther clients were mining firms.
  #394  
Old 01-27-2019, 07:26 PM
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Since you are citing a Gallup poll this far before the primaries begin as evidence of how "popular" Sanders is let me refresh your memory of how Clinton was polling on Gallup early on: a bit better than Sanders does now. Only 14% of Ds viewed her unfavorable but many were still happy to find vote for someone who was new to them instead.
You'll note the title of that poll includes the word "maintains". Sanders' popularity in the graphic they provide goes back to September, 2016. So hardly a new thing for him.
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  #395  
Old 01-27-2019, 09:55 PM
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You'll note the title of that poll includes the word "maintains". Sanders' popularity in the graphic they provide goes back to September, 2016. So hardly a new thing for him.
Huh it goes back a bit over 2 years from this point in the cycle and you are impressed with Gallup's headline about "maintains".

Funny. Here's their headline from 2/14, about the same point in last cycle:
Quote:
Hillary Clinton Maintains Positive Image in U.S.
You'll note that the title of that poll includes the word "maintains".

Her 59% viewed favorably was higher at that point in the cycle than Sanders' (53%) is at the same point in this one except for her that was a drop off from the 60s she had been at for the past five years, also longer than the Sanders data, so was "hardly a new thing" for her. And oh, her unfavorable was about the same but a hair less than his.

If only polls at this point in the cycle actually had much predictive value or any real value at all. But if they have any value it is a very small amount.
  #396  
Old 01-28-2019, 07:07 AM
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his was a unique perspective
A self-described Democrat who voted for Trump - yeah, that's unique, I guess.
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Old 01-28-2019, 07:09 AM
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I have the feeling that the fight between Gillibrand, Warren, and Harris is going good for popcorn sales.
  #398  
Old 01-28-2019, 11:14 AM
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Oh goody. Hillary's not ruling out a 2020 run. She just really, really wants to be president and is the world's biggest masochist.
  #399  
Old 01-28-2019, 11:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
Oh goody. Hillary's not ruling out a 2020 run. She just really, really wants to be president and is the world's biggest masochist.
From the article:
Quote:
"Most losing presidential candidates never totally close the doors to running for president, something that’s really hard to do. So I put this in the category," Zeleny said.
At this point, there doesn't seem to be any serious apparatus in place, so I'm not seeing any real intention here. My take is, even if she really wants to run again, who's going to bankroll her?
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  #400  
Old 01-28-2019, 11:25 AM
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It doesn't matter if she's ruling it out, because everyone else in the country has already ruled it out for her.
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