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  #151  
Old 09-09-2018, 01:20 PM
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The purpose behind the letter holds the clue as to who wrote it.

I donít buy the idea that the purpose is to make Trump go insane strawberry-Cain Mutiny-style. That could be accomplished in any number of ways much safer than this. Woodwardís book is doing the crazy-making well enough anyway.

Itís a mistake not to factor in the affect the midterms might have on the authorís motive. Trump is not going anywhere any time soon, but many in the GOP are in a fight for their seats right now; the Republican Party, at least in part, may be who the author is trying to save. This suggests to me that the author is a politician, who cares more about image and electability, than a career public servant. Just keeping their head down as they hog tie Trump quietly has not helped rescue the Republicanís image from Trumpís branding, so the op-ed is a desperate move to do that, I think.

What senior officials have a history of running for political office and might see themselves as saviors of the Partyís ďgood nameĒ? Those folks would be my first round of suspects.

Then, after considering that the op-ed might be an attempt to dissociate the author (not just the GOP) from Trumpís ugliness, thereís another piece of analysis to worth through. Who is the most at risk of being seen as Trump enabler, due to their position, reputation, and history in the WH? Whose clout is the most at risk by being seen as a Trump enabler? Who stands to lose the most if their clout is tainted at the same time it becomes necessary for them to have it?

Look at Conway who I believe fails the test. She sold her soul to the devil a long ass time ago; sheís so in deep she knows what the history books are going to say about her and she doesnít care. The not caring is how sheís been effective at lying and spinning so well. So why would she a pen a letter aimed at showing there are people in the WH who do care? Itís out of her character.

Halley and Huntsman have less to worry about than others in being seen as Trump enablers. Halley in particular has openly contradicted him, and Huntsman isnít exactly seen as a trusted Trump advisor.

Kelly and Mattis are not politicians. They are Republicans but they havenít made their careers by representing the party or concerning themselves with its platform. I think they wouldíve been just fine working quietly behind the scenes to control Trump without going to the NYT to advertise it.

Dan Coats counts as a politician because he was a senator before joining the administration. But, as National Intelligence Director, I donít see him as someone who would risk outing himself with an op-ed like this. Trump is already poisoning the public against the intelligence community on an unrelenting basis; if he were to be unmasked as the author, Coats would have to know that it wouldnít just be him paying the price. He has also not hid the fact that Russia meddled with the election, which means it should be clear to all that he is not Trumpís lackey. He has nothing to prove to the public by writing this letter.

So I think itís Pence, as Iíve said before. His reputation and political currency is most at stake, heís the most at risk of being seeing as Trumpís partner in crime (so he has motive to show otherwise), and the well-being of the Republican Party is of most interest to him because of the prospect of being POTUS one day.
  #152  
Old 09-09-2018, 02:00 PM
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I don't think it's anybody with a military history like Mattis. Those guys are inculcated with the "chain of command" concept. They will follow any order, regardless of its inherent stupidity, as long as they don't view it as illegal. Staying on board but doing an op-ed like this one just isn't part of the military mindset.
  #153  
Old 09-10-2018, 02:00 AM
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Fred Clark:
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Iíd start with a list of First Things subscribers. The op ed has just the sort of ponderously self-righteous right-wing-politics-as-holier-than-thou-virtue tone of that notorious journal.
Clark likes Mark Silkís theory that itís Dan Coats, with an assist from Michael Gerson: https://religionnews.com/2018/09/06/...s-deep-throat/
  #154  
Old 09-10-2018, 05:22 AM
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Michael Caputo, former Trump campaign director, acts pretty sure he knows who it is. He doesn't name the name ("my attorney tells me that's a bad idea"), but it's someone of Deputy Secretary rank or higher, who has purged his/her* department of all Trump supporters, and who has been asked (and answered No) by the President if he/she is the traitor. ("These kind of people leave a trail of crumbs when they're trying to deceive.") * - Near the end of the interview he refers to the Anonymous as "she." But was that just misdirection?

According to Caputo, the intent was to help the D's in the coming election. The op-ed was "ghost-written," the choice of words to thrown suspicion on Pence, Mattis and Kelly was "diabolical gaslighting."

Caputo may be blowing smoke (or smoking something), but it does seem to me that smart insiders would have some pretty good guesses of who the anonymous coward/traitor/hero/gaslighter might be.
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  #155  
Old 09-10-2018, 07:07 AM
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Gotta love how Caputo called Trump’s base The Deplorables non-ironically.
  #156  
Old 09-10-2018, 09:30 AM
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According to Caputo, the intent was to help the D's in the coming election.
BS, the intent was to reassure republicans that there were grown ups still looking out for their interests and it is ok to keep voting GOP.
  #157  
Old 09-10-2018, 01:14 PM
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Caputo left Trump's employ well before the election and can honestly be described as a professional bullshit artist. I see no reason to give his speculation any weight whatsoever.
  #158  
Old 09-10-2018, 01:53 PM
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The nerve of that man to inject the concept of dishonesty into the Trump White House!
  #159  
Old 09-10-2018, 08:54 PM
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I think of all the theories that have been floated, “the op-ed was written to hand Democrats the midterm elections!” from Caputo is the most desperate. To believe that, we would need to completely overlook all the songs of praises for conservative policies in that letter. Yeah dude, someone who thinks that tax plan was good for the country wants to put Dems in power. Makes perfect sense.
  #160  
Old 09-11-2018, 04:23 PM
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Ok, since we aren't betting any real money, I'll go with Bob Woodward himself, as a way to publicize his new book. He's made stuff up before--the deathbed convo with Casey--and he's probably got enough pull to get someone on the Times to go along.

I am betting zero dollars on this, as I know it's a low probability scenario. But that's my prediction.
  #161  
Old 09-11-2018, 08:09 PM
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I'm guessing John Kelly. The circumstances that led him to do it are extreme fatigue, disgust, and a weak-minded thought process. My take is that he misjudged the cowards he works with and thought he would have an eager or at least willing group of high ranking officials that would begin
looking for a 25th amendment path to restoring sanity. But he was way wrong and now he is sweating and just waiting to be outed.
  #162  
Old 09-12-2018, 12:02 PM
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I don't think it's Kelly. Sure, he's part of the conspiracy to keep Trump from fucking up. Of course he is. But he's not the type to write this letter. He knew going in that this would trash his reputation, and decided that protecting the country was more important. And the letter makes it harder to quietly protect the country from Trump, not easier. So it's not Kelly.

And it's not Pence either. Pence wants to be president after Trump is gone. He's the VP, he can't be fired. He's got a plausible path to the Presidency after Trump quits or is fired, but none of those paths include trashing Trump. You're never going to win the election by betraying Trump because that means the deplorables are never going to support you.
  #163  
Old 09-12-2018, 02:08 PM
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I, along with most of the anti-trump crowd, will be following this story closely and I guess, eventually, we will find out who wrote it. My rationale for this unlikely guess is not deeply rooted in the idea that the person made a careful decision. It is possible that the writer submitted the piece in a state of anger, desperation, and fatigue, along with a dash of outsized self-importance. Or, he could have really thought, based on "insider" talk, that most of his WH associates, would begin the 25th Amendment process. I have zero confidence in Kelly's adherence to any sort of allegiance to a moral code or military code. He is pretty much a bigot who somehow rose within a system that rewards that sort of dead-end thinking. Who knows...?
  #164  
Old 10-22-2019, 03:36 PM
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Update: The author of the anonymous op-ed is back! And this time with an entire book that picks up "from where those first words of warning left off."

Quote:
Originally Posted by CNN
The anonymous senior Trump administration official whose 2018 New York Times op-ed was called treasonous by President Donald Trump has written a new book about Trump titled "A Warning" that will be published next month, CNN has learned.

CNN has exclusively obtained a cover of the book, which has been a closely guarded secret until now and will be released November 19 by Twelve, a division of the Hachette Book Group. The author will remain anonymous, and sources familiar with the book tell CNN that "elaborate precautions have been taken to protect the author's identity."

The sources say that the publisher and the author's literary agents at Javelin were provided verification that the author is the same person who penned the Times op-ed, titled "I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration," on September, 5, 2018.

...

"The Author of A WARNING refused the chance at a seven figure advance and intends to donate a substantial amount of any royalties to the White House Correspondents Association and other organizations that fight for a free press that seeks the truth," Latimer said, adding that the book "was not written by the author lightly, or for the purpose of financial enrichment. It has been written as an act of conscience and of duty."
  #165  
Old 10-22-2019, 03:44 PM
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KellyAnne is ending the grift she and her husband have been on. That's my guess.
  #166  
Old 10-22-2019, 03:47 PM
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You know, on one hand I'd like to read this book. But on the other hand, if I ever find out that she wrote it, I'll feel dirty. Like, a shower won't help dirty.
  #167  
Old 10-22-2019, 07:02 PM
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KellyAnne is ending the grift she and her husband have been on. That's my guess.
Agree! And she's used him to funnel her essay and her book to the publishers (George writes scathing stuff about Trump all the time. Her drafts could be passed off as his).

Last edited by KarlGauss; 10-22-2019 at 07:03 PM.
  #168  
Old 10-22-2019, 09:22 PM
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My theory always was that it was Coates.
  #169  
Old 10-22-2019, 09:59 PM
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It's Joe Klein, obviously.

(author of Primary Colors)
  #170  
Old 10-22-2019, 11:16 PM
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It's...... TRUMP HIMSELF! The ultimate money making scam.
  #171  
Old 10-23-2019, 03:23 AM
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How's the line on Kirstjen Nielsen moving, after her speech at the FORTUNE Most Powerful Women Summit?

I might throw a Jefferson on her, unless the odds have come down below 10-1.
  #172  
Old 10-23-2019, 10:05 AM
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I'll put a nickel on Ivanka. I'm reasonably sure it isn't Ben Carson.

I'm sure we'll find out eventually. I'm glad the book is coming out, now I can give my kids a gift idea for my Christmas list. Promises to be a good read. This administration is without doubt a complete disaster, but it should make for some great reading when all the postmortems are written.
  #173  
Old 10-23-2019, 11:30 AM
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An anonymous tell-all book about the White House may as well be fiction. If you have zero idea who wrote it, how can one vouch for its veracity? How can one know the author had the access they claim they have/had?

Anyway, not going to spend any time reading, I'll just read the react.
  #174  
Old 10-23-2019, 11:59 AM
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An anonymous tell-all book about the White House may as well be fiction. If you have zero idea who wrote it, how can one vouch for its veracity? How can one know the author had the access they claim they have/had?

Anyway, not going to spend any time reading, I'll just read the react.
However, I think there's a decent reason to believe that pretty much everyone working for Trump is actually a Never-Trumper who decided personal ambition was more important.

It's like a game of Clue where everyone is a suspect in a killing, as opposed to your starting point of whether the murder is fake news or not.
  #175  
Old 10-23-2019, 12:22 PM
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However, I think there's a decent reason to believe that pretty much everyone working for Trump is actually a Never-Trumper who decided personal ambition was more important.

It's like a game of Clue where everyone is a suspect in a killing, as opposed to your starting point of whether the murder is fake news or not.
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  #176  
Old 10-23-2019, 02:27 PM
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At this point, I can see the logic that persons in Cabinet departments and so forth - the parts of the Executive Branch that have responsibilities to fulfill, regardless of who is President and what their agenda is - need to stay in place.

But those who work at the White House itself? All they're doing is enabling Trump. If they all quit, he'd be helpless. AFAIAC, anyone who's still working there isn't part of the 'resistance,' they're only fooling themselves if they believe that.
  #177  
Old 10-23-2019, 02:33 PM
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And maybe instead of writing a book first, first take your concerns to the FBI, CIA, NSA, what have you.
(I suppose that it's possible that that HAS been done, and somehow swept under the rug by Barr...)
  #178  
Old 10-23-2019, 03:00 PM
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KellyAnne is ending the grift she and her husband have been on. That's my guess.
Nah. The Conway Grift is, one stays in the White House as a loyal Trumpist, the other is super critical of Trump. That way, whichever way this administration shakes out, they've got a guaranteed job. If Trump doesn't get removed in disgrace, Kellyanne cleans up as one of his most loyal and longest-serving minions, and she and George make bank on that association. If Trump resigns/is impeached/goes to prison, and everyone who worked for him becomes professionally toxic, she "retires" and George cleans up on the lecture circuit as "the Republican who was right about Trump all along."
  #179  
Old 10-23-2019, 04:46 PM
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But those who work at the White House itself? All they're doing is enabling Trump. If they all quit, he'd be helpless. AFAIAC, anyone who's still working there isn't part of the 'resistance,' they're only fooling themselves if they believe that.
It gives me great joy to know that Mick "I'm gonna let Trump be Trump" Mulvaney had been acting Chief of Staff for only 7 months before Trump being Trump did stupid shit that will lead to his impeachment.

God, if only Lyin' Mick could have taken the job in January 2017....
  #180  
Old 10-24-2019, 09:48 AM
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Nah. The Conway Grift is, one stays in the White House as a loyal Trumpist, the other is super critical of Trump. That way, whichever way this administration shakes out, they've got a guaranteed job. If Trump doesn't get removed in disgrace, Kellyanne cleans up as one of his most loyal and longest-serving minions, and she and George make bank on that association. If Trump resigns/is impeached/goes to prison, and everyone who worked for him becomes professionally toxic, she "retires" and George cleans up on the lecture circuit as "the Republican who was right about Trump all along."
This, but with the added benefit that the spouse who loses will claim that they were working for the winning side the whole time. I fully expect Kelly Anne Conway to maker her return to polite society by claiming that she was a spy the whole time, but in reality, she's just seeing which way the wind blows.
  #181  
Old 10-24-2019, 10:05 AM
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Naw, I think it's the Conway's. They're the new Matalin/Carville, going to sell their life's story for a book deal, a movie production deal, etc. KAC's job is to verbally blow Trump whenever she can, but she has no* decision-making authority... but now she's being floated as Mulvaney's possible replacement. Think she and George want her in the middle of the shit show, where legally contentious issues have to be dealt with every day? Naw, this book announcement... coming so swiftly on the rumors... is step 3 on their Grand Plan and puts a timeline on her exit.

Or not! It's fun to speculate though!

*that anyone has been able to ascertain (a caveat)

Last edited by JohnT; 10-24-2019 at 10:05 AM.
  #182  
Old 10-25-2019, 06:38 PM
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You might be a able to disguise your style in an op-ed sized piece, but in an entire book? I think the people who do this kind of statistical analysis of writing styles will suss out the identity almost immediately.
  #183  
Old 10-25-2019, 06:52 PM
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You might be a able to disguise your style in an op-ed sized piece, but in an entire book? I think the people who do this kind of statistical analysis of writing styles will suss out the identity almost immediately.
Maybe if he wrote an earlier book. Who exactly are the people running statistical analysis on books to determine anonymous authors anyway?
  #184  
Old 10-25-2019, 07:27 PM
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You might be a able to disguise your style in an op-ed sized piece, but in an entire book? I think the people who do this kind of statistical analysis of writing styles will suss out the identity almost immediately.
I was thinking the same thing. Wasn't that how the author of "Primary Colors" was identified? But if this person doesn't have much publicly available work to compare to, it may be tough to get a match.
  #185  
Old 10-25-2019, 07:35 PM
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The "Kellyanne Conway secretly has a heart of gold" theory takes a slight hit when she calls a reporter just to harangue her for reporting something true. Just reading the transcript I could almost smell the Stoli fumes. Yikes.
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