View Poll Results: Will Trump win in 2020?
Yes 149 47.15%
No 167 52.85%
Voters: 316. You may not vote on this poll

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  #101  
Old 06-21-2019, 08:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
That's certainly true.
I do think there is a real factor of "you aren't really going to vote for HIM, are you?" behind a lot of the polling and coverage of the 2016 election. And I don't think that has gotten any less. There is some truth to the idea of living in a bubble.
Someone else is going to have to confirm for me that pollsters interject their partisan sentiments into their questioning. Because the thought of professional organizations doing so boggles my mind as much as the idea of people being unwilling to voice their true feelings to pollsters.

I believe the Shy Trump Voter exists but in insubstantial numbers.
  #102  
Old 06-21-2019, 08:27 AM
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The thing is, he doesn't have to do better. All he has to do is the same as in 2016.
No, demographic shifts require him to do a little better. Something like three million of his 2016 voters will be dead by next November. The Dems haven't lost nearly as many to Father Time and the first time voters replacing them favor Not Donald Trump by 30+ points.

I think you mean something slightly different -- "all he has to do is hold serve" or something like that and I get that. The voter distribution is the main reason he has about a fitty-fitty chance.
  #103  
Old 06-21-2019, 08:32 AM
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I believe there is a much larger silent-Trump supporters than the polls suggest. At this moment I'd say his re-election chances are 60-40%. He is in his element on the campaign trail and that can take away the distraction of a dis-functioning White House once election season is in full swing.
  #104  
Old 06-21-2019, 09:27 AM
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The thing is, he doesn't have to do better. All he has to do is the same as in 2016.
And this time he is not running after eight years of Obama, he is not running against Hillary, he is not running as the change candidate. Every single factor that allowed him to pull out the unlikely victory has basically been flipped around on him.
  #105  
Old 06-21-2019, 10:09 AM
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Someone else is going to have to confirm for me that pollsters interject their partisan sentiments into their questioning. Because the thought of professional organizations doing so boggles my mind as much as the idea of people being unwilling to voice their true feelings to pollsters.
We can talk about whether the Bradley Effect is widely thought to be a real thing, but the effect is not attributed to any misbehavior by pollsters.
  #106  
Old 06-21-2019, 10:20 AM
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Trump by a whisker?


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Originally Posted by Unreconstructed Man View Post
Until we know who he’s running against, it’s pointless to speculate about the result.
Agreed. He got in on the strength of "I would vote for anyone except Hillary." Will that work a second tome? Maybe. Biden looks like he is just an experienced old hack, and the voters don't want that. The Dems need to come up quickly with a viable candidate with charisma and plans for reform, and no, not Bernie, he doesn't qualify except maybe as an experienced old hack.

Much as I shudder at the thought of Our Donald getting back into office, there are several reasons why he might do it - albeit probably with a very narrow margin:

- he is the incumbent
- there are enough stupid angry white males who will still vote for him
- the economy has not tanked (yet?)
- he has not got sucked into a losing and bloody war (yet?)
- he has somehow managed to avoid a Clintonesque scandal (so far)

But I won't vote yet.
  #107  
Old 06-21-2019, 10:47 AM
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So is incumbency an advantage or a disadvantage?

“Change” is attractive to many. Obama won bigger as the change agent than as the incumbent. Trump also won as a change agent, in his case a now for something completely different agent. Can he sell that now? He’ll try to.

The D side cannot let him control the narrative. Wealth inequality is worse than ever. He’s not drained the swamp he’s filled it with toxic waste. He’s divided the country worse than it was. We are ill-prepared to handle the next downturn and those newly with jobs are rightfully still insecure about their futures. Few are on course to be able to retire and many will be handicapped by education debt for decades.

Make him defend. Define him as what needs to be changed, as the swamp incarnate.
  #108  
Old 06-21-2019, 11:26 AM
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... he has somehow managed to avoid a Clintonesque scandal (so far)
Seriously? He and/or his "best people" have already engaged in multiple activities which, committed by a Clinton or any Democrat, would have been blown up into DEFCON-2 scandals by the Fox News party. We have a 400-page report documenting activity that any GOP congress would have used to launch immediate impeachment proceedings against any Dem president.

Short of being caught on video handing Putin $100 billion in cash along with the nuclear launch codes, while simultaneously sucking the man's dick and signing a notarized affidavit stating he knew all along evangelical Christians were idiots who would fall for his bullshit, no scandal is going to hurt his election chances.
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  #109  
Old 06-21-2019, 01:02 PM
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Very scary that SDMB folk, a group obviously CONSIDERABLY smarter than the national average, has it so close.

I actually am for whatever makes the price of bitcoin go up.
Maybe constant chaos that doesn't damage infrastructures?
  #110  
Old 06-21-2019, 01:45 PM
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No, demographic shifts require him to do a little better. Something like three million of his 2016 voters will be dead by next November. The Dems haven't lost nearly as many to Father Time and the first time voters replacing them favor Not Donald Trump by 30+ points.

I think you mean something slightly different -- "all he has to do is hold serve" or something like that and I get that. The voter distribution is the main reason he has about a fitty-fitty chance.
To elaborate, what I am saying is all he has to do is carry the same states as before. I believe he has a greater than 50% chance of doing just that.

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And this time he is not running after eight years of Obama, he is not running against Hillary, he is not running as the change candidate. Every single factor that allowed him to pull out the unlikely victory has basically been flipped around on him.
Nothing has been flipped around at all. He still plays the outsider card and the people who voted for him LOVE it. He continues to invoke Obama and Hillary as the enemy and it will soon shift to whoever the Dems nominate. His voters believe he is fighting the Deep State and evil Liberals. Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie are all evil Libs trying to enslave decent, gun-toting, white Christians.

He blames the Democrats for any failure he encounters or anything bad that happens in the lives of his supporters. It's all Nancy and Chuck's fault. They try to block him at every turn and must be destroyed! His fans eat that shit up. If it means more liberal or Democrat tears they go crazy for him. They don't care about Russia or the Mueller report. Their hatred of Obama, Hillary and all things Democratic has only grown since DJT won.

All the factors that allowed him to pull it off in 2016 are still there and unless the Democrats get smart he will do the exact same thing in 2020.
  #111  
Old 06-21-2019, 02:48 PM
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.. Biden looks like he is just an experienced old hack, and the voters don't want that. ...
.

Actually, that seems to be exactly what the voters do want.
  #112  
Old 06-21-2019, 03:02 PM
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Nothing has been flipped around at all. He still plays the outsider card and the people who voted for him LOVE it. He continues to invoke Obama and Hillary as the enemy and it will soon shift to whoever the Dems nominate. His voters believe he is fighting the Deep State and evil Liberals. Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie are all evil Libs trying to enslave decent, gun-toting, white Christians.
(Bolding mine)

Yes, his supporters love all that crap, but they're not the ones Dems need to win over to win the WH in 2020. All we need is maybe 100,000 voters in key states who sat out 2016 (or maybe voted for Trump as a potential change agent) to recognize what he really is and vote for the Dem nominee.

Based on 2018, that's not only possible but likely.
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  #113  
Old 06-21-2019, 04:05 PM
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Pretty much this. And the Democrats will figure out a way to completely fuck it up. Also the Russians will put their finger on the scale for Trump again.
Yeah. Democrats tend to eat each other. Case in point, Biden illustrates his ability to get things done, in the past, with other politicians with whom he strongly disagreed using some old Dixiecrat segregationists as an example. What happens? He gets called out for his racial insensitivity by some of his opponents and an apology is demanded. They ignore Joe's point entirely and completely overlook his commitment to civil rights just to score some political points. I consider that a rather low blow.
  #114  
Old 06-21-2019, 04:08 PM
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Agreed. He got in on the strength of "I would vote for anyone except Hillary." Will that work a second tome? Maybe. Biden looks like he is just an experienced old hack, and the voters don't want that. The Dems need to come up quickly with a viable candidate with charisma and plans for reform, and no, not Bernie, he doesn't qualify except maybe as an experienced old hack.

Much as I shudder at the thought of Our Donald getting back into office, there are several reasons why he might do it - albeit probably with a very narrow margin:

- he is the incumbent
- there are enough stupid angry white males who will still vote for him
- the economy has not tanked (yet?)
- he has not got sucked into a losing and bloody war (yet?)
- he has somehow managed to avoid a Clintonesque scandal (so far)

But I won't vote yet.
I agree with you, but you seem to be leaving out the many stupid, angry white females that will vote for him as well. Idiocy knows no boundaries.

Last edited by TimfromNapa; 06-21-2019 at 04:09 PM.
  #115  
Old 06-21-2019, 04:20 PM
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Piling on Akaj's post. Those people are maybe a bit more than a third of the voters, and not all of the people who voted for him.

Others just wanted to go with what was behind door number 2. They had no idea what Trump would actually be like or do but they wanted to go with something ... different.

Interesting article here.

The one significant change is within the Obama-Trump voter block, the voters who really delivered Trump the election in those critical midwest states. Not a huge change but the movement is still significant.
Quote:
Only Obama-Trump voters have had a significant change in their view of President Trump over the last two years. In the 2016 VOTER Survey, more than 8 in 10 (85 percent) Obama-Trump voters held a “favorable” view of the president — 19 percentage points higher than in 2019 (66 percent). Even small movement among these voters — who represented 5 percent of voters in 2016 — may prove significant heading into the 2020 presidential election.(iv) Obama-Trump voters are also disproportionately white, non-college educated and, as a result, are likely to be well distributed geographically for the purpose of electoral impact.

All other shifts among voting groups are not statistically significant.
Not as big of a shift as I'd hope to see though.

More real, not huge, but still significant movements.

Pew divides up Trump voters. 59% are the enthusiasts. They liked him then and they like him now. 23% were converts. They did not love him, often preferred Cruz or such, but they mostly came around and stayed warm to him. Of the 46% who voted for him these are his floor of support (comes to about 38% of those who voted). The other two groups are the skeptics, 12% of his voters, who have turned a bit colder to him, and the 6% disillusioned, who were warm and are now cold. That's 18% of his support (8% of those who voted) that is if not poachable at least a bit more likely to stay home. Someone who is able to demonstrate that they actually care about and understand their very real problems and challenges could get at least a few points of them.

But here's the key.
Quote:
Four-in-ten Americans who were eligible to vote did not do so in 2016. There are striking demographic differences between voters and nonvoters, and significant political differences as well. Compared with validated voters, nonvoters were more likely to be younger, less educated, less affluent and nonwhite. And nonvoters were much more Democratic.
2018 level enthusiasm may not be sustainable but 2020 is highly likely going to see more than 2016.
  #116  
Old 06-21-2019, 04:28 PM
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It's hard to say and I am reluctant to make a firm prediction, but from my POV *today* Trump is ever-so-slightly the favorite, so 55-45% likelihood that he is reelected. Still, that's really based on nothing other than the fact that most incumbent presidents are reelected, so Trump is favored by default if nothing else. Now, if you factor in any potential cheating that he, his DOJ, and Republican states may do during the election - not to mention the possibility that Russian meddling might lead to ACTUAL vote-switching - then his odds may skyrocket.

The thing is, though, I think he has basically no chance at winning the popular vote, but because of the EC he could still win anyway. If that were to happen then we are all going to run headfirst into a legitimacy crisis of the US government.
  #117  
Old 06-21-2019, 04:32 PM
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Yeah. Democrats tend to eat each other. Case in point, Biden illustrates his ability to get things done, in the past, with other politicians with whom he strongly disagreed using some old Dixiecrat segregationists as an example. What happens? He gets called out for his racial insensitivity by some of his opponents and an apology is demanded. They ignore Joe's point entirely and completely overlook his commitment to civil rights just to score some political points. I consider that a rather low blow.
Yeah, this is making me nuts. Biden is talking about a time when even people who hated each other in private could work together in public. That was a Good Thing. Today's young lawmakers seem to think that standing with your arms folded, shouting "NO!" year after year is the way to get things done.
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  #118  
Old 06-21-2019, 05:12 PM
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One of the reasons I think Trump is favorite to be re-elected is his personality. He has made more people political when not that long ago being apolitical was trendy.

A lot of it is people in outright opposition but you can't forget the new followers who buy into him.

Trump is a brand. He is a self-promoter and he does it very well. Some see him as a nefarious product of nepotism and deceit. Others see him as a fighter who doubles down in the face of criticism and is anti-PC.

If you actually look at what he has done in legislative success, it's nothing a President Ted Cruz wouldn't have done. But Cruz is boring. He might have got more done, but he wouldn't have a cult of following dedicated "to own the libs". He wouldn't sell out arenas in super quick time. Trump like it or not does because of personality. They buy into him, not necessarily the Republican Party.

In 2020 there will be people voting against him because they despise the man and his politics. There will be those who vote for him holding their nose up at the man but voting for his politics. And there will be those who vote for him without a care about politics but because the man is bombastic and entertaining.

Personality matters a lot to many voters more than policy and rationale behind policy.

Last edited by Boycott; 06-21-2019 at 05:14 PM.
  #119  
Old 06-21-2019, 10:16 PM
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So is incumbency an advantage or a disadvantage?

“Change” is attractive to many. Obama won bigger as the change agent than as the incumbent. Trump also won as a change agent, in his case a now for something completely different agent. Can he sell that now? He’ll try to.

The D side cannot let him control the narrative. Wealth inequality is worse than ever. He’s not drained the swamp he’s filled it with toxic waste. He’s divided the country worse than it was. We are ill-prepared to handle the next downturn and those newly with jobs are rightfully still insecure about their futures. Few are on course to be able to retire and many will be handicapped by education debt for decades.

Make him defend. Define him as what needs to be changed, as the swamp incarnate.
Excellent post and if only the Democrats and whoever they nominate are smart enough to follow this or a similar game plan. I have very little faith they will.

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Yes, his supporters love all that crap, but they're not the ones Dems need to win over to win the WH in 2020. All we need is maybe 100,000 voters in key states who sat out 2016 (or maybe voted for Trump as a potential change agent) to recognize what he really is and vote for the Dem nominee.

Based on 2018, that's not only possible but likely.
The part I bolded is pretty much what I have been preaching in this and other threads on this topic. And yet, I fairly certain the Democrats will manage to fuck this up just as Hillary did in 2016 because they just don't get it.

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Yeah, this is making me nuts. Biden is talking about a time when even people who hated each other in private could work together in public. That was a Good Thing. Today's young lawmakers seem to think that standing with your arms folded, shouting "NO!" year after year is the way to get things done.
And this mentality for absolute purity of thought and action for your entire life is why the Democrats are more likely to lose in 2020 than pretty much any reason. Trump is so clearly odious, vile and unqualified to be POTUS this shouldn't even be a contest. BUT, this is all likely to play out in a way that turns off and alienates the very voters they need to persuade to vote for them in 2020.
  #120  
Old 06-21-2019, 11:14 PM
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He will win.

I remember listening to a pollster being interviewed on the Axios podcast about the unexpected results of the Florida elections in 2018, and he had his own theory that there is indeed a silent Trump voter not being captured in polls. There isn't any Bradley effect going on- these people are deliberately lying to pollsters because they don't trust them and they know inaccurate polling only helps Trump. He pegged the number of liars as 2% of poll responders in Florida, which is more than enough to covertly flip a state into the lean-red column.

Even if his low approval numbers are real, so what? Ronald Reagan's approval rating was in the low 30s through much of his first term (and he was even shot)... just look how that turned out.

Trump has an apparently good economy to point to, and that's all that ultimately matters.
  #121  
Old 06-21-2019, 11:28 PM
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Yeah, this is making me nuts. Biden is talking about a time when even people who hated each other in private could work together in public. That was a Good Thing. Today's young lawmakers seem to think that standing with your arms folded, shouting "NO!" year after year is the way to get things done.
This saintly bipartisanship is ultimately what led to wonderful things like the Iraq War and the Great Recession. Those times are dead and rightfully so. Standing with his arms folded shouting "NO!" year after year also worked great for Mitch McConnell. The courts have been transformed for a generation, while Trump has pretty much made erased most of everything Obama accomplished (I cringed typing that, because he didn't accomplish much at all, besides whining about how mean Republicans are).

The democrats need to realize we are in a Cold Civil War, and any chance of bipartisanship or "getting things done" is over. The system needs to be radically altered, and the Dems need to start disenfranchising conservative voters whenever possible, just as Republicans do to their enemies.
  #122  
Old 06-21-2019, 11:43 PM
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... Ronald Reagan's approval rating was in the low 30s through much of his first term ...
No it wasn’t. He relatively briefly dropped as low as Trump has consistently been and by the end of his third year was back over 50% approval. Never low 30s and upper 30s only briefly.

Why make up shit?

Reagan’s approval was down for a bit after being higher due to a poor economy and came up as the economy picked up. Trump is in the dump with a booming economy continuing the expansion that predates him. I hope the economy stays fine but cycles are cycles and a downturn is very possible. If he’s this low now what would he be during a sputter?
  #123  
Old 06-22-2019, 02:39 AM
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It's hard to say and I am reluctant to make a firm prediction, but from my POV *today* Trump is ever-so-slightly the favorite, so 55-45% likelihood that he is reelected. Still, that's really based on nothing other than the fact that most incumbent presidents are reelected, so Trump is favored by default if nothing else. Now, if you factor in any potential cheating that he, his DOJ, and Republican states may do during the election - not to mention the possibility that Russian meddling might lead to ACTUAL vote-switching - then his odds may skyrocket.

The thing is, though, I think he has basically no chance at winning the popular vote, but because of the EC he could still win anyway. If that were to happen then we are all going to run headfirst into a legitimacy crisis of the US government.
There is no legitimacy crises because the so-called popular vote is irrelevant.
  #124  
Old 06-22-2019, 04:26 AM
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Trump has shocked me many times over the past four years. But today he did so in a brand new, completely different way. To understand what I am saying, please go to this link and resist reading the tweets, which are less coherent and delivered in his usual hyperbolic manner. Just watch the video and try to push out of your mind everything you know about this guy. Doesn’t he sound rational, authoritative, even thoughtful? If he had pivoted into this mode immediately after the 2016 election and never deviated from it, he would be unbeatable right now. I want Democrats to win, so I am glad he did not!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...ortionate.html
  #125  
Old 06-22-2019, 01:23 PM
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Trump has shocked me many times over the past four years. But today he did so in a brand new, completely different way. To understand what I am saying, please go to this link and resist reading the tweets, which are less coherent and delivered in his usual hyperbolic manner. Just watch the video and try to push out of your mind everything you know about this guy. Doesn’t he sound rational, authoritative, even thoughtful? If he had pivoted into this mode immediately after the 2016 election and never deviated from it, he would be unbeatable right now. I want Democrats to win, so I am glad he did not!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...ortionate.html
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  #126  
Old 06-22-2019, 01:32 PM
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There is no legitimacy crises because the so-called popular vote is irrelevant.
A president who twice wins in spite of acquiring millions of fewer votes than his opponent necessarily calls into question whether the US government legitimately represents the will of its people. I get that the electoral college exists and yadda yadda yadda, but...people vastly overestimate the stability of the US Constitutional order. The persistent inability of the majority to exert its will is the kind of shit that has historically led to revolutions.
  #127  
Old 06-23-2019, 10:17 PM
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I loathe him with a passion, am a loyal Dem and hope to God I'm wrong, but yes, I suspect Trump will win. An incumbent President with a (seemingly) good economy is always tough to beat. If Trump stopped tweeting between now and Election Day 2020 and didn't start a war with Iran or anyone else, I think he just might win in a landslide.
  #128  
Old 06-23-2019, 10:58 PM
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I voted "no". I'm willing to risk being wrong again.

And I may very well be, given the incumbent effect and the fact that we are nowhere near determining who the specific Democratic nominee may be. Nevertheless, in an informal personal poll with the respondents consisting of "people I know and who have expressed a political viewpoint recently", the weight and depth of loathing for Mr. Trump is really quite striking. But, yeah, yeah, miniscule sample size and non-random, so take it with a block of salt.

OP: IMO it would be best to re-run this poll once the actual Dem nominee has been selected.

Last edited by El_Kabong; 06-23-2019 at 10:59 PM.
  #129  
Old 06-23-2019, 11:15 PM
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I loathe him with a passion, am a loyal Dem and hope to God I'm wrong, but yes, I suspect Trump will win. An incumbent President with a (seemingly) good economy is always tough to beat. If Trump stopped tweeting between now and Election Day 2020 and didn't start a war with Iran or anyone else, I think he just might win in a landslide.
Since 1900, the following incumbent Presidents have run for a second term, and lost

William Howard Taft
Herbert Hoover
Gerald Ford
Jimmy Carter
George H.W. Bush.

Taft lost because he was seen as Teddy Roosevelt's weak carbon copy, and Roosevelt decided he wanted to be President again.

Hoover got stuck in the worst economic turmoil the U.S. has ever suffered. Being President is the only thing Hoover ever failed at.

Gerald Ford was such a special case I don't think he can be used for an example, but even he didn't lose by very much.

Carter was hit by both economic and foreign policy problems, and he faced an extremely charismatic opponent in Ronald Reagan.

And Bush Sr. ticked off conservatives in his own party, and they sat on their hands, plus he was a weak candidate, plus he got hit by a recession, plus there was a third-party candidate with nationwide appeal.

Trump could win this thing, even if he deliberately wants to lose.
  #130  
Old 06-24-2019, 01:04 AM
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In the instance of Bush Sr., I think it was more that Republicans had had the White House for 12 straight years and the public was tired of it.
  #131  
Old 06-24-2019, 04:02 AM
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If Joe Biden survives the primary but limps into the general the way Hillary Clinton did, yes, Trump could win the electoral college vote. The same is true if a far left candidate like Warren or Sanders - even if the party is energized, they will face skeptical voters in much of the industrial Midwest and they will almost certainly lose Florida. I won't say that Warren or Sanders can't win, but they'd probably need Trump to be in bad shape. If Biden loses, I don't know which of the remaining candidates is viable and capable of building a coalition of hard left and center left progressives the way Obama did. Biden is not my idea of the prototypical candidate -- maybe a younger Jerry Brown would have fit that description. But I hope Biden can avoid foot-in-mouth syndrome and I hope that Democrats can see past trivial controversies and support him.
  #132  
Old 06-24-2019, 05:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Mean Mr. Mustard View Post
For a fun walk down memory lane, refer to this poll from July 2016 in which 82% of responders predicted Clinton winning the election.

A few comments from that thread:
  • Hillary in a landslide.
  • It is going to be Clinton. It was always going to be Clinton.
  • Clinton, by more than predicted.
  • There simply aren't enough uneducated angry white male sexist racists out there to win for Trump.
  • I can't see how (Clinton) can avoid being elected right now.

(I know it's easy to cherry-pick with hindsight, just presenting these comments to illustrate how perfectly wrong we can be with great confidence)


mmm
I didn't reply in that particular thread, but I couldn't conceive that female Republicans would actually vote for Trump. I expected them to simply abstain on the Presidential race.

I was let down.
  #133  
Old 06-24-2019, 05:41 AM
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But I hope Biden can avoid foot-in-mouth syndrome
Have you even met Joe Biden ?
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  #134  
Old 06-24-2019, 07:08 AM
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If the economy holds, then I think he wins. So I voted yes.
  #135  
Old 06-24-2019, 07:44 AM
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Have you even met Joe Biden ?
LOL, no.

But to follow up, his recent gaffes with respect to working with segregationists to get legislation done may hurt him a little going into the campaign, but I think he can survive it. What would worry me if I were a Biden adviser is how he responds in the debates when Cory Booker and others confront him about the comments and push him to apologize in front of a national audience. Subconsciously, people are attracted to perceived strength and repulsed by perceived weakness. Making Biden defend himself and putting him on the defensive in front of millions of people might be damaging, even if voters weren't necessarily aware of or offended by his original remarks.

There's no more hiding from the cameras for Biden. He has to bring it.
  #136  
Old 06-24-2019, 08:14 AM
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Jus ' give it time


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Seriously? He and/or his "best people" have already engaged in multiple activities which, committed by a Clinton or any Democrat, would have been blown up into DEFCON-2 scandals by the Fox News party. We have a 400-page report documenting activity that any GOP congress would have used to launch immediate impeachment proceedings against any Dem president.

Short of being caught on video handing Putin $100 billion in cash along with the nuclear launch codes, while simultaneously sucking the man's dick and signing a notarized affidavit stating he knew all along evangelical Christians were idiots who would fall for his bullshit, no scandal is going to hurt his election chances.
He weathered the Stormy Daniels business, unfortunately, but there could be more. Saw a report today that he allegedly raped a journalist. Well, it ain't over till it's over, hence my slightly plaintive "yet?) addition to my points. There's still time for him to screw (up).
  #137  
Old 06-24-2019, 08:20 AM
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Sned in the clowns


It is beginning to look as if Boris Johnson might become the British PM. Common ground with The First Cockatoo?
- bad hair
- incredible self-confidence (the word overweening comes to mind)
- no clear agenda, despite some loudly proclaimed issue
- total belief that he is right
- poltiics as showbiz - the punters love it!
- serious issues? Not here.

The world is in good hands. The problem is that the hands belong to Bozo.
  #138  
Old 06-24-2019, 09:17 AM
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...The world is in good hands. The problem is that the hands belong to Bozo.
You have a peculiar definition of "good."
  #139  
Old 06-24-2019, 09:49 AM
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You have a peculiar definition of "good."
I took that as irony.
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  #140  
Old 06-24-2019, 10:24 AM
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LOL, no.

But to follow up, his recent gaffes ...
To be clear those were not gaffes, they were his on point branding.

IF (and while he is the odds on favorite it is very much still IF) he becomes the standard-bearer, he will have done so based on the appeal of that message to Democratic primary voters and will be selling that as the alternative to Trumpist hyper-partisan us vs themism.

His brand is the counter-narrative to ever greater polarization. He is precisely positioning his message as one that tries to work things out with those "on the other side" and who negotiates rather than demands, trying to find the common ground to achieving the common good.

It is aimed especially at the Obama-Trump voters, the Clinton-Romney voters, and eligible voters who don't bother because the hyper-partisanship just turns them off. Those who are swingable and those who can be convinced to vote want to hear that something can actually get done, that government is not doomed to forever cycles of dysfunction, one side blocking the other forevermore. Even those who think that such is a dream have to accept that it is a dream that appeals to those voters.

In the general those are not gaffes that will hurt him they are the image that he hopes will sell him: limiting the "other" to be demonized specifically to Trump and Trumpism.

One can disagree with whether or not that brand message is going to be effective or not, but staying on that brand message is no gaffe.
  #141  
Old 06-24-2019, 10:40 AM
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Joe Biden is IMHO neither smart enough nor disciplined enough to stay on-brand. Goofy remarks that have to be explained away and damage-controlled are just Joe being Joe.
  #142  
Old 06-24-2019, 11:08 AM
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Voted yes, and with that, brought the results back to 50/50.

Realistically, all we need to talk about is 3-5 states. I'm not persuaded enough has happened/changed to cause them to come out differently. Has there been any change in demographics to cause any states to change hue? What single issue/issues will cause a 16 Trump voter to vote for ANY of the Dems? The very things many of us find reprehensible, are a large part of why many people voted for this ignorant, offensive braggart.

Many, many voters are stupid. And a good majority vote on how the economy is reported as doing - whether or not they feel the benefit personally. I'm not persuaded that the "anyone bout Hillary" voters swayed it to Trump. Take out "Lock her up!" and the remainder of Trump's BS tweets will play the same to the same people. Many folk think governing via tweet is entirely appropriate - maybe even desirable. Many others enjoy the "entertainment" aspect of Trump as president - either enjoying the unpredictability, or the fact that Dems are apoplectic.

Plus, I'd prefer being pessimistic, with a slight chance of being pleasantly surprised, rather than the alternative.
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  #143  
Old 06-24-2019, 11:44 AM
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Joe Biden is IMHO neither smart enough nor disciplined enough to stay on-brand. Goofy remarks that have to be explained away and damage-controlled are just Joe being Joe.
And could be. I am in fact sure there will be gaffes. To some degree the expectation of them is as baked in for him as they are for Trump. And like for Trump for some they are part of the actual appeal, his "authenticity", Joe being Joe, a real guy, not the result of focus groups.

Nevertheless, those particular items were not gaffes.
  #144  
Old 06-24-2019, 12:08 PM
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If the economy holds, then I think he wins. So I voted yes.
I don't know why people keep harping on the "economy."
I don't think it's that great, and nobody I know (middle-aged professionals) thinks so either. I see storefronts closing all the time, wages are stagnant, the DJIA is flat, and there are panhandlers everywhere. What's so great about it?

Last edited by beowulff; 06-24-2019 at 12:08 PM.
  #145  
Old 06-24-2019, 12:59 PM
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I voted Yes.

I just watched Chris Cuomo interview Bill Maher. At the very end of the interview, beginning about 7:45, Maher talks about political correctness:

Quote:
I don't think you can overestimate how much people have been choking on political correctness and hating it. There were two studies [published in N.Y. Times and Atlantic]: ... the vast majority of liberals in this country hate it: they think political correctness has gone way too far. No one likes to be living on eggshells.
  #146  
Old 06-24-2019, 01:41 PM
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I don't know why people keep harping on the "economy."
I don't think it's that great, and nobody I know (middle-aged professionals) thinks so either. I see storefronts closing all the time, wages are stagnant, the DJIA is flat, and there are panhandlers everywhere. What's so great about it?
That is why I said a good majority vote on how the economy is reported as doing - whether or not they feel the benefit personally.

I have long been shocked at working class support for Repubs, whose policies seem directly aimed at hurting their economic position. But look at the papers - the economy is being WRITTEN ABOUT as going great guns. The stock market is up - nevermind that most middleclass folk have few stocks. Unemployment is down - no matter than new jobs are pt-time, min wage, etc.

AND - perhaps most importantly - nevermind that the president is EXTREMELY limited in his/her responsibility for the economy's ups or downs!

Saw reported in the paper the consistent gains over the past decade. Yeah - well, I guess if you trash the economy badly enough 11-12 years ag, the last 10 can look downright rosy in comparison!

(Too many) people are stupid, and are overly swayed by simplistic media.
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  #147  
Old 06-24-2019, 01:54 PM
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I don't know why people keep harping on the "economy."
I don't think it's that great, and nobody I know (middle-aged professionals) thinks so either. I see storefronts closing all the time, wages are stagnant, the DJIA is flat, and there are panhandlers everywhere. What's so great about it?
What on earth? The DJIA was 19,827 on Inauguration Day, and Friday's close was 26,719. How is that flat?
  #148  
Old 06-24-2019, 02:16 PM
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What on earth? The DJIA was 19,827 on Inauguration Day, and Friday's close was 26,719. How is that flat?
I'd say Donald's a piker. The Dow was 7550 when Obama took office, more that doubling during his tenure.
  #149  
Old 06-24-2019, 02:21 PM
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Trump has shocked me many times over the past four years. But today he did so in a brand new, completely different way. To understand what I am saying, please go to this link and resist reading the tweets, which are less coherent and delivered in his usual hyperbolic manner. Just watch the video and try to push out of your mind everything you know about this guy. Doesn’t he sound rational, authoritative, even thoughtful? If he had pivoted into this mode immediately after the 2016 election and never deviated from it, he would be unbeatable right now. I want Democrats to win, so I am glad he did not!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...ortionate.html
Ben Wittes over at Lawfare also made the same comment:

https://www.lawfareblog.com/praise-p...ts-iran-tweets

Given that Trump also had his first success on the job (by his own criteria), making Mexico mildly blink a few weeks ago, it is possible that he's finally starting to sober up and do the job.

More likely, though, he's compromised and had to back down on Iran because Russia or someone told him to. Unfortunately, I do think that's the more likely explanation - I'm not politically motivated to think that Trump has been compromised, I just think there's too many actions that he has taken that make no sense, even from a Trumpian viewpoint. He just sounds coherent because he's repeating what the people who advised him not to do it said.

In the case of Mexico, well he had succeed at least once, eventually.
  #150  
Old 06-24-2019, 02:26 PM
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What on earth? The DJIA was 19,827 on Inauguration Day, and Friday's close was 26,719. How is that flat?
DJ was 26,616 on 1/26/18 and is 26, 719 on 6/21/19

If that's not flat, I don't know what is.
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