Straight Dope Message Board

[Velocity]

Right now, a Trump reelection is the longest of odds. But let's say lightning strikes twice and Trump somehow manages to do it again.

IMHO, the reaction will depend entirely on the margin of victory.

If Trump wins narrowly, like last time, the resistance movement will go on for basically another 4 years. If it is very narrow, there may be recounts. And if he wins in the Electoral College narrowly (i.e., 270-268) while losing the popular vote by a big margin, there may be considerable violence.

If Trump wins big, though, and there is truly nothing to dispute or recount, there may be an exodus of many Democratic voters from the nation (many threatened to leave in 2004 if Bush was reelected, or in 2016 if Trump was elected, but this may be what finally pushes them to actually do it.) 1

[HurricaneDitka]

Originally Posted by Velocity

... If Trump wins big, though, and there is truly nothing to dispute or recount, there may be an exodus of many Democratic voters from the nation (many threatened to leave in 2004 if Bush was reelected, or in 2016 if Trump was elected, but this may be what finally pushes them to actually do it.)

I doubt it. Almost everyone who says they'll leave is full of shit. This has been proven time and time again. 2

[Chingon]

The OP starts with false premise and moves on from there. 3

[kanicbird]

Trump have never won popularly, not in his election, not in the midterms which is a validation of him, yes he did win what is the elite house, the house of lords, AKA the senate. But the popular house, the house of commons, the house of the people, AKA the house he lost seats. Trump only wins with the elite and their advantage over the common person.

But as long as he wins or even loses he will still consider it a confirmation that he is the elected king https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...-elected-king/ and continue to act like it. I believe this is the reason God limits human life span as we did we wouldn't have much as a life if such a dictator was able to rule for centuries, it is a protection for us. 4

[FlikTheBlue]

First, Trump isn’t the longest of long shots. He’s somewhere between even money and a 2 to 1 underdog. In gambling odds he’d be about a +150 or so. If he wins, however, his ceiling is pretty low. My guess is his best case scenario is the 2016 map plus Minnesota. And even if he wins 270-268 there won’t be massive violence. Democrats don’t role that way.

Speaking for myself, however, I will say that throughout Bush Jr.’s time, moving out of the country never even crossed my mind. I have thought about doing so for Trump, but it would depend on how bad things get over the next four years, not something automatic just because he wins. 5

[Fiendish Astronaut]

If Trump is still standing in 2020 he will stand a great chance of winning as long as the economy has not taken a downward turn. “It’s the economy, stupid.” 6

[Velocity]

Originally Posted by kanicbird

Trump have never won popularly, not in his election, not in the midterms which is a validation of him, yes he did win what is the elite house, the house of lords, AKA the senate. But the popular house, the house of commons, the house of the people, AKA the house he lost seats. Trump only wins with the elite and their advantage over the common person.

But as long as he wins or even loses he will still consider it a confirmation that he is the elected king https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...-elected-king/ and continue to act like it. I believe this is the reason God limits human life span as we did we wouldn't have much as a life if such a dictator was able to rule for centuries, it is a protection for us.

Right, but I am not asking about Trump's reaction to getting reelected - I think we all know what his reaction will be and it won't surprise anyone. I am asking how the rest of America - particularly, blue voters - would react to him winning a 2nd time. 7

[RioRico]

Candidates could take a majority of electoral votes with 29% of the popular vote. Yes, it's unlikely, but still possible. Absent massive disenfranchisement and voter suppression, the current team of losers are MOST unlikely to gain anywhere near a popular majority. How much of a loss would America stand them to 'win' by? 8

[BeepKillBeep]

There will be neither widescale violence, nor a mass exodus. This isn't to say there won't be any shootings, but this is the USA. There are shootings every day, so a small uptick from a few deranged Democrat supporters wouldn't be anything except a couple of news stories (oh and the news networks would be ever so happy to report it wouldn't they? Won't somebody PLEASE think of the news networks?). Generally, widescale political violence happens when people are suffering, and Americans have far too many comforts (well-fed, comfortable, entertained) to give that up and take to the streets. 9

[Gyrate]

Which is likely to result in more violence/shootings: a Trump victory or a Trump loss? Because only one side has been regularly talking up "civil war", "Second Amendment solutions", and general armed resistance and refusal to accept election results, and it's not the Democrats. 10

[BeepKillBeep]

Originally Posted by Gyrate

Which is likely to result in more violence/shootings: a Trump victory or a Trump loss? Because only one side has been regularly talking up "civil war", "Second Amendment solutions", and general armed resistance and refusal to accept election results, and it's not the Democrats.

There won't be any widescale violence from the right in case of a Trump loss either, for much the same reasons. That isn't to say there might not be some small uptick, and that the vultures (broadcast news media) won't salivate at getting to cover it, but Americans are too comfortable to have a real political revolt.

To be clear, this isn't a knock against Americans. It is simply human nature. 11

[Gyrate]

Originally Posted by BeepKillBeep

There won't be any widescale violence from the right in case of a Trump loss either, for much the same reasons. That isn't to say there might not be some small uptick, and that the vultures (broadcast news media) won't salivate at getting to cover it, but Americans are too comfortable to have a real political revolt.

To be clear, this isn't a knock against Americans. It is simply human nature.

I agree; it won't remotely be "widespread" either way. Most people will just type furious rants on Facebook and repost pre-made memes and leave it at that. So the question is which loony fringe is more of a threat.

And even that's not really a useful question for most purposes, although it's worth asking in the context of someone positing that one side will reaction with "considerable violence" to an unfavorable election result while excluding comparative consideration of all sides involved. 12

[Damuri Ajashi]

Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka

I doubt it. Almost everyone who says they'll leave is full of shit. This has been proven time and time again.

On both sides of the aisle. Although the liberal threats to move are usually to more liberal places while the conservative threats to leave are ALSO to more liberal places. 13

[Velocity]

Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi

On both sides of the aisle. Although the liberal threats to move are usually to more liberal places while the conservative threats to leave are ALSO to more liberal places.

Well, as you alluded to, conservatives don't really have anywhere to go to. Liberals have a wide variety of more-liberal nations they could emigrate to (although they often don't realize just how difficult immigration can be to, say, the EU.) This is why you generally hear more "If _____ wins, I am leaving America" threats from the left and the right; the right just has nowhere else to go to. 14

[HurricaneDitka]

I don't know how hard / easy it is to emigrate to the EU, but the standard "I'll move to Canada" threat / promise usually demonstrates a profound ignorance of Canadian immigration laws on the part of the threat- / promise-maker. 15

[HurricaneDitka]

Originally Posted by Velocity

... the right just has nowhere else to go to.

That's why you get Reagan quotes like:

You and I have a rendezvous with destiny. We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on earth, or we will sentence them to take the first step into a thousand years of darkness. If we fail, at least let our children and our children’s children say of us we justified our brief moment here. We did all that could be done.

16

[dalej42]

I agree that the ‘I will move if XYZ is elected’ threats are usually baseless. Just as Ted Nugent didn’t end up in jail or dead after Obama won reelection in 2012. 17

[Gyrate]

Originally Posted by dalej42

I agree that the ‘I will move if XYZ is elected’ threats are usually baseless. Just as Ted Nugent didn’t end up in jail or dead after Obama won reelection in 2012.

And Rush Limbaugh still hasn't gone to Costa Rica. People say all sorts of hyperbolic nonsense, particularly when politics are involved. And while you can probably emigrate on a whim if you're an extremely wealthy celebrity, everyone else will find it much harder to achieve (speaking as someone who did (mostly) leave the country, albeit not for political reasons).

Originally Posted by Ronald Reagan

You and I have a rendezvous with destiny. We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on earth, or we will sentence them to take the first step into a thousand years of darkness. If we fail, at least let our children and our children’s children say of us we justified our brief moment here. We did all that could be done.

Yeah, the children and the children's children aren't saying that. 18

[dalej42]

Exactly, I had a friend who moved countries believing that love could conquer all with her SO. It didn’t work. No idea if she was deported or left voluntarily. 19

[kanicbird]

Originally Posted by Velocity

Right, but I am not asking about Trump's reaction to getting reelected - I think we all know what his reaction will be and it won't surprise anyone. I am asking how the rest of America - particularly, blue voters - would react to him winning a 2nd time.

OK I think Resist and Persist would continue - trying to counter Trump's aspirations through legal means, along with perhaps impeach and remove. 20

[Moriarty]

I’m thinking mass labor strike. But first, we march. 21

[pool]

I think if Trump wins there could be a couple violent demonstrations in places like Portland or something. I think after about a week it will be business as usual for the most part, aside from social media outrage. With Trump having a potential entire four more years of power, there will probably be renewed attempts for impeachment. 22

[Annoyed]

Originally Posted by Velocity

And if he wins in the Electoral College narrowly (i.e., 270-268) while losing the popular vote by a big margin, there may be considerable violence.

What? You guys are gonna go all Timothy McVeigh or something because you lost an election based on the rules of that election?

If Trump gets elected again, its nobodys fault but your own. 23

[Gyrate]

Originally Posted by Annoyed

What? You guys are gonna go all Timothy McVeigh or something because you lost an election based on the rules of that election?

If you were paying attention you might have noticed that it's not "us guys" claiming there will be "considerable violence". It's the OP's baseless assertion, which has been heavily disputed.

If Trump gets elected again, its nobodys fault but your own.

Pretty sure it'll be the fault of the people who vote for him. 24

[Annoyed]

Originally Posted by Gyrate

If you were paying attention you might have noticed that it's not "us guys" claiming there will be "considerable violence". It's the OP's baseless assertion, which has been heavily disputed.

You gonna sit around and act like there isn't any leftwing violence happening right now?

Originally Posted by Gyrate

Pretty sure it'll be the fault of the people who vote for him.

So in that little noggin of yours, your party loses and its the fault of the people who didn't vote your way? How dare those voters. The audacity.

Maybe, just maybe, y'all should look inward and ask yourselves why you are so close to losing (again) to an orange loudmouth with bad hair? I have never in my life see such a large group of people so against taking any responsibility for their own shortcomings as the left does and continues to do. Not only that but they double down on the same crap that lost them the election the first time. 25

[Gyrate]

Originally Posted by Annoyed

You gonna sit around and act like there isn't any leftwing violence happening right now?

Perhaps if you'd like to comment on what I wrote rather than things you're pretending I wrote, we can have a constructive conversation.

So in that little noggin of yours, your party loses and its the fault of the people who didn't vote your way? How dare those voters. The audacity.

You do understand how democracy works, right? I'm only asking because you seem to be struggling here.

I have never in my life see such a large group of people so against taking any responsibility for their own shortcomings as the left does and continues to do. .

...says the person who is currently blaming people who didn't vote for a candidate for that candidate's victory. 26

[BobLibDem]

What should happen if he won would be to move the capital to Moscow and abandon Washington. Board up the monuments and museums and memorials until such time as we deserve them. Eliminate Congress and the courts as the people would have chosen despotism, which is fine with a lot of people because he hates the same people that they do. 27

[Shodan]

Democrats will lose their shit, to the extent that they have their shit to lose. Four more years of impeachment hearings, of course.

There will be more violence if Trump wins, for a couple of reasons. There will be more violence from the left, which the media will downplay, excuse, minimize, and ignore, but playing up anything they can blame on Trump.

Although it will be mostly ranting.

Regards,
Shodan 28

[Procrustus]

Originally Posted by Shodan

Democrats will lose their shit, to the extent that they have their shit to lose. Four more years of impeachment hearings, of course.

There will be more violence if Trump wins, for a couple of reasons. There will be more violence from the left, which the media will downplay, excuse, minimize, and ignore, but playing up anything they can blame on Trump.

Although it will be mostly ranting.

Regards,
Shodan

I think we will just be very, very, sad. 29

[Gyrate]

Originally Posted by Shodan

Four more years of impeachment hearings, of course.

Yes, I think it likely that if Trump wins he will continue to commit impeachable offenses. And if Republicans hold the Senate, they will continue to cover for his criminal activities. 30

[Baboonanza]

Originally Posted by Annoyed

Maybe, just maybe, y'all should look inward and ask yourselves why you are so close to losing (again) to an orange loudmouth with bad hair? I have never in my life see such a large group of people so against taking any responsibility for their own shortcomings as the left does and continues to do. Not only that but they double down on the same crap that lost them the election the first time.

I agree completely. It's the Democrats fault for continuing to have any level of integrity and respect for democracy. They should be like Trump and just lie and cheat their way to power while demonising any group opposed to them because apparently that's ok now. 31

[Buck Godot]

If Trump wins relatively fairly, I think you will basically see a replay of what happened in 2016, but without the total shock that accompanied Trumps first election. Since 2016 the left has come to terms with the fact that a large proportion of the country will accept gross incompetence and corruption provided that the right people are hurt. We will then have another 4 years that will be similar to what we had in the previous 4 only more so. With an emboldened Trump not even bothering to attempt to hide his corruption.

The only way I think you are likely to get mass violence from the left is if there is blatant attempts to fix the election. I'm not talking about an irregularity here and there, but 3rd world level of election fraud, things like the exclusion of Democratic observers from polling sites, the closing of polling stations in urban areas on election day, jailing of political opponents, etc.

If Trump loses, there will be a call to arms on right wing social media rejecting the election results and the coupe against the glorious leader, which will fizzle out, as people realize that a lot more people are willing to call for revolution on the internet, then are willing to be the among the first ones to get it started. There may be a few small scale stand offs, like the Bundys at the Malheur wildlife refuge, but nothing nation threatening. 32

[Buck Godot]

Originally Posted by Annoyed

Maybe, just maybe, y'all should look inward and ask yourselves why you are so close to losing (again) to an orange loudmouth with bad hair? I have never in my life see such a large group of people so against taking any responsibility for their own shortcomings as the left does and continues to do. Not only that but they double down on the same crap that lost them the election the first time.

If it wasn't for the damn Jews and communists we never would have had Hitler, yet people keep blaming the Nazi's. 33

[elucidator]

Kinda depends on how, doesn't it? Wins a massive majority of the popular vote and the electoral college, we of the loyal opposition will sink into despair. Does the OP limit the question to legitimate election, or is the full array of options to be considered?

Il Douche claimed he lost the popular vote last time due to "illegal voters". In generous wisdom, he did not pursue any legal actions about that. Or, he was utterly full of shit. But suppose he did, suppose he put together some legal horseshit about New York or California's voting results are illegitimate, and it goes to the Supremes and they say, sure, yeah, that's right, so he's like, totally elected.

What, perzackly, are the parameters of the question, here? The restrictions of legitimate election procedure, or the limits of a malignant imagination? 34

[Velocity]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Does the OP limit the question to legitimate election, or is the full array of options to be considered?

OP is limited to legit elections (so, winning Electoral College but losing popular vote still counts as legit.) Wanted to ask what the reaction of the D's would be to that. (The behavior of the R's would be entirely predictable; they'd just be happy like last time.)


Not that it wouldn't be meaningful to discuss what would happen if Trump suspended elections and became lifelong tyrant by force, but that would turn it into a totally different type of discussion. 35

[KarlGauss]

Originally Posted by dalej42

I agree that the ‘I will move if XYZ is elected’ threats are usually baseless. . .

You meant YYZ, no? 36

[HurricaneDitka]

Originally Posted by Baboonanza

I agree completely. It's the Democrats fault for continuing to have any level of integrity and respect for democracy. They should be like Trump and just lie and cheat their way to power while demonising any group opposed to them because apparently that's ok now.

You say that last sentence as if that's not exactly what the Democrats are already doing. 37

[QuickSilver]

Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka

You say that last sentence as if that's not exactly what the Democrats are already doing.

If the shoe fits. 38

[manson1972]

Originally Posted by Annoyed

You gonna sit around and act like there isn't any leftwing violence happening right now?

Originally Posted by Shodan

There will be more violence from the left, which the media will downplay, excuse, minimize, and ignore, but playing up anything they can blame on Trump.

Can one of you guys start a "Left-wing violence incidents" thread? I keep hearing about all this left-wing violence from people, but haven't really seen any. Perhaps a nice thread so others like me can keep abreast of the terror of left-wing violence that I seem to be missing out on.

thanks! 39

[Gyrate]

There have certainly been incidents of violence by left-wing people. Funnily enough though, the people who go on and on about them never seem to notice the far more common violent incidents by non-left-wing people. 40

[carnivorousplant]

Originally Posted by pool

I think if Trump wins there could be a couple violent demonstrations in places like Portland or something. I think after about a week it will be business as usual for the most part, aside from social media outrage. With Trump having a potential entire four more years of power, there will probably be renewed attempts for impeachment.

Portland? 41

[HurricaneDitka]

Originally Posted by manson1972

Can one of you guys start a "Left-wing violence incidents" thread? I keep hearing about all this left-wing violence from people, but haven't really seen any. Perhaps a nice thread so others like me can keep abreast of the terror of left-wing violence that I seem to be missing out on.

thanks!

I suppose somebody could start a thread if they want, but if by "haven't really seen any" you mean you're unaware of any of the incidents of left-wing violence in recent years, I'd direct you towards a few names you could Google to get you started, just off the top of my head:

James Hodgkinson
Micah Xavier Johnson
Eric Clanton
Connor Betts
Willem Van Spronsen 42

[manson1972]

Originally Posted by Gyrate

There have certainly been incidents of violence by left-wing people. Funnily enough though, the people who go on and on about them never seem to notice the far more common violent incidents by non-left-wing people.

I've seen a few incidents of violence of people with black hoodies on. Is that left-wing violence? How would one know? Are they interviewing the black hoodie-wearers afterwards? 43

[asahi]

Originally Posted by manson1972

Can one of you guys start a "Left-wing violence incidents" thread? I keep hearing about all this left-wing violence from people, but haven't really seen any. Perhaps a nice thread so others like me can keep abreast of the terror of left-wing violence that I seem to be missing out on.

thanks!

Wait for it, wait for it: Antifa! 44

[asahi]

Originally Posted by Velocity

Right now, a Trump reelection is the longest of odds. But let's say lightning strikes twice and Trump somehow manages to do it again.

IMHO, the reaction will depend entirely on the margin of victory.

If Trump wins narrowly, like last time, the resistance movement will go on for basically another 4 years. If it is very narrow, there may be recounts. And if he wins in the Electoral College narrowly (i.e., 270-268) while losing the popular vote by a big margin, there may be considerable violence.

If Trump wins big, though, and there is truly nothing to dispute or recount, there may be an exodus of many Democratic voters from the nation (many threatened to leave in 2004 if Bush was reelected, or in 2016 if Trump was elected, but this may be what finally pushes them to actually do it.)

If Trump wins big, I would assume that he's gained popularity with a majority of the country, which seems unlikely when you consider that his favorability ratings hover around 40% -- 45% when there's a 4-week long stretch in which there's relative calm. 45

[HurricaneDitka]

Originally Posted by manson1972

I've seen a few incidents of violence of people with black hoodies on. Is that left-wing violence? How would one know? Are they interviewing the black hoodie-wearers afterwards?

Well, Eric Clanton got caught, and his background, profiles, and targets of his attack, all make it pretty clear it was "left-wing violence" at least in his case. 46

[manson1972]

Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka

I suppose somebody could start a thread if they want, but if by "haven't really seen any" you mean you're unaware of any of the incidents of left-wing violence in recent years, I'd direct you towards a few names you could Google to get you started, just off the top of my head:

James Hodgkinson
Micah Xavier Johnson
Eric Clanton
Connor Betts
Willem Van Spronsen

Sure, I know about those people. They were all over the news, you might have seen it. But people are SO worried about left-wing violence, I thought I was missing out on hundreds of incidents of left-wing violence.

But nope, as it turns out, 5 people over 5 years doesn't seem to be that outrageous. I figured as much. Especially since one was a guy with a bike lock, and 2 were practicing their 2nd Amendments rights to defend against tyranny. 47

[Velocity]

If I may junior-mod a bit before this turns into an omnibus political-violence thread: I am hoping the thread will be about a lot more than just that.

Things like:

1) Would any Americans move out of America to a foreign nation because Trump is reelected, and if so, how many?
2) How much of a gap between popular vote and Electoral College vote is "acceptable" and where is the boundary where it would be considered too extreme? (Suppose Trump loses popular vote by 5%, but still is reelected?)
3) Since Trump would be a lame duck, why wouldn't Senate Republicans go along with his impeachment and let Pence be president?
4) What forms of non-violent resistance might Democrats take in Trump's 2nd term? (other than voting)

Etc. etc. 48

[Max S.]

Me particularly? I already don't feel like I have a say in Mr. Trump's re-election so the entirety of my reaction to it would depend on the national circumstances between then and now. If Trump closes an awesome deal on China and drops the Tariffs and N. Korea denuclearizes, that sort of stuff would make me happy. In fact, I would just be reacting to those instead of the election.

The margin of victory in the electoral college or the popular vote is not that important to me, unless it is so infinitesimally small as to justify scrutiny.

~Max 49

[manson1972]

1) No. Nobody would move out
2) Any gap is acceptable. Because the Electoral College is how Presidential Elections work.
3) I have no answer for this
4) Complaining about Trump on Message Boards and Twitter. (Same as this term) 50