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  #51  
Old Yesterday, 12:28 PM
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I suspect the “number recovered” is inaccurate, because there are likely many who had milder forms of the disease without symptoms and were just not tested. I am not overly concerned about coronavirus and would not change travel plans; apart from picking another time to visit mainland China.
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  #52  
Old Yesterday, 12:33 PM
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Doesn't mean that one of the tech shipped over here for something hasn't been exposed ... though I meant one last year who was a real sweetheart,I know Japanese habit is to bring little gifts to the office workers that one is visiting, didn't know it was also a Chinese habit =)
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  #53  
Old Yesterday, 05:45 PM
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I would have hoped that the people being evacuated would be given those masks that would prevent the virus from getting out or in before and during the evacuation. And I mean the heavy duty ones with a very strong seal. Hell, I'd expect a slightly uncomfortable disinfection procedure before the masks could be removed. Also, I'd expect those known to have the disease to be removed in a separate vehicle at a separate time than those not infected.

With all of that, I would hope that the chance of anyone getting infected on the trip would be lower than staying on the ship.
  #54  
Old Yesterday, 06:23 PM
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I live in a major coastal city, I take public transit, I fly somewhat regularly, and my favorite hobby involves close contact with lots of other people. No, I wouldn't worry about visiting Santa Cruz.

Of course, there haven't been any cases anywhere near SantaCruz.

How far out is this trip? Since you can afford to walk away from the deposit, my advice would be to plan to go, but re-evaluate immediately before you leave, based on current information. Don't feel like you need to decide now and stick with it.
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I just came back from Disneyland. I didn't go into the park, but I did stay at one of the hotels and was in Downtown Disney a lot. There was no sign of concern from Disney not anyone else, and remember that this was where the measles outbreak hit.
Disney is a hundred times more likely to have problems than Santa Cruz.
I'd be a little nervous about Disney. Especially Disney a month from now.
  #55  
Old Yesterday, 06:27 PM
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I would have hoped that the people being evacuated would be given those masks that would prevent the virus from getting out or in before and during the evacuation. And I mean the heavy duty ones with a very strong seal. Hell, I'd expect a slightly uncomfortable disinfection procedure before the masks could be removed. Also, I'd expect those known to have the disease to be removed in a separate vehicle at a separate time than those not infected.

With all of that, I would hope that the chance of anyone getting infected on the trip would be lower than staying on the ship.
I wouldn't have thought the risk was all that high staying on the ship. Diseases usually spread readily through cruise passengers because they all interact with each other and eat from the same buffets. But these people are being (mostly) confined to their rooms and eating individually prepared plates of food. It feels completely different from a risk-of-infection basis. I'd guess that most or all of the new infections are people who were exposed before they began the quarantine.
  #56  
Old Yesterday, 11:40 PM
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  #57  
Old Today, 01:56 AM
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US has 15 cases based on https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

This has been unchanged (IIRC) since my wife came back from Shanghai 15 days ago. Maybe it was 12 and then increased to 15 based on evacuation flights. I didn't take detailed notes and can't find a daily tracker

The only US person to person spread has been 2 cases of husband-wife.

3 people are recovered, including case zero in Seattle, and one case of husband-wife in Chicago (according to the above link).

Expect a jump in US cases tomorrow based on the evacuated ship from Japan that are now in hard quarantine in the US.

It is a nightmare for Wuhan and the province of Hubei. The manufacturing company I work for has 15,000 person factory in Wuhan. Fingers crossed but as far as I know only 2 people have been infected and are recovering. The rest of China is not nearly so bad, although there are multiple cities under hard lock down. Our factories in multiple locations are bringing folks on board slowly via a 2 week quarantine outside the factories.

You can say what you want about the response time, and how this could have been identified sooner, but I hope the world can acknowledge that China has taken a major bullet to burn out this epidemic inside of China.
  #58  
Old Today, 02:12 AM
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...I hope the world can acknowledge that China has taken a major bullet to burn out this epidemic inside of China.
How so? What's the difference between containment actions to protect their own population and containment actions to protect the global population? Surely it's exactly the same thing.
  #59  
Old Today, 02:53 AM
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I live in a major coastal city, I take public transit, I fly somewhat regularly, and my favorite hobby involves close contact with lots of other people. No, I wouldn't worry about visiting Santa Cruz.
Sure, the spring break and Mavericks crowds won't be there.

Quote:
Of course, there haven't been any cases anywhere near SantaCruz.
We'll not just visit our old home of Santa Cruz but also the Monterey Bay Aquarium and Cannery Row, which *do* attract many global visitors. Hell, the Snoopy statue at Railroad Square in Santa Rosa CA pulls in many visitors from worldwide. Tourists are odd animals.

Quote:
How far out is this trip? Since you can afford to walk away from the deposit, my advice would be to plan to go, but re-evaluate immediately before you leave, based on current information. Don't feel like you need to decide now and stick with it.
We'll definitely leave in a bit over 40 hours (that's before noon Wednesday) for a medical appointment along the way. But I'll check news on my tablet at the doc's office. If one case is reported on the Central Coast, we'll turn around for home.
  #60  
Old Today, 03:22 AM
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I'm travelling South East Asia for some months and landed on Cambodia. Most people in SEA use masks every day(because of bad air), but Khmer(Cambodia) never did. One out 50 maybe.
Now, when this virus broke out, almost half people wear them. Which is nice of course, but it freaks me out more than usual.
Btw, be noted, that in Asia it is very common to wear surgical mask out of courtesy, if you think you are sick - so you don't infect others.
I'm not really a germophobe, but i started to check this site almost daily: https://covid19info.live/ old name (wuflu.live)

I missed the period on 11th Feb when confirmed cases spiked up. Anyone know why ?

Last edited by NotFromWuhan; Today at 03:23 AM.
  #61  
Old Today, 04:29 AM
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Originally Posted by NotFromWuhan View Post
I'm travelling South East Asia for some months and landed on Cambodia. Most people in SEA use masks every day(because of bad air), but Khmer(Cambodia) never did. One out 50 maybe.
Now, when this virus broke out, almost half people wear them. Which is nice of course, but it freaks me out more than usual.
Btw, be noted, that in Asia it is very common to wear surgical mask out of courtesy, if you think you are sick - so you don't infect others.
I'm not really a germophobe, but i started to check this site almost daily: https://covid19info.live/ old name (wuflu.live)

I missed the period on 11th Feb when confirmed cases spiked up. Anyone know why ?
The cases spiked because China began reporting clinically confirmed but untested cases.
  #62  
Old Today, 06:50 AM
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...
You can say what you want about the response time, and how this could have been identified sooner, but I hope the world can acknowledge that China has taken a major bullet to burn out this epidemic inside of China.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riemann View Post
How so? What's the difference between containment actions to protect their own population and containment actions to protect the global population? Surely it's exactly the same thing.
You know what, it's bronchitis good for us that our interests are aligned. But I'm thrilled the Chinese are trying to contain it.
  #63  
Old Today, 06:52 AM
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Okay, that's too funny a swypo to edit away. But "bronchitis" was meant to be "probably". The letters aren't even that close and i don't know how it happened.
  #64  
Old Today, 06:53 AM
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The cases spiked because China began reporting clinically confirmed but untested cases.
That is to say, it's a change in definition, not a real spike. (If there's also a real spike or dip, we can't tell.)
  #65  
Old Today, 06:55 AM
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Sure, the spring break and Mavericks crowds won't be there.


We'll not just visit our old home of Santa Cruz but also the Monterey Bay Aquarium and Cannery Row, which *do* attract many global visitors. Hell, the Snoopy statue at Railroad Square in Santa Rosa CA pulls in many visitors from worldwide. Tourists are odd animals.


We'll definitely leave in a bit over 40 hours (that's before noon Wednesday) for a medical appointment along the way. But I'll check news on my tablet at the doc's office. If one case is reported on the Central Coast, we'll turn around for home.
Leaving in a couple of days? Don't worry about it. That's too soon for secondary infections to be there. In a month, who knows, but right now there are a tiny number of cases in the US and the odds of catching it in the wild are vanishingly small.
  #66  
Old Today, 08:58 AM
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Last edited by Riemann; Today at 09:00 AM.
  #67  
Old Today, 10:20 AM
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‘Chernobyl-like’ response by China means ‘worst is yet to come’ for coronavirus, Raymond James says

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The firm said it has been “receiving questions on whether or not this will be a ‘Chernobyl-like’ event for China — the comparison being the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster on the fall of the Soviet Union.”

Raymond James said that following conversations with government officials and academics, it believes the “worst is yet to come” and that the “market is underappreciating the potential dangers and what the key government leaders on the virus are saying.”
Are they putting this out there just to have a grabby headline? It is hard to say. I have seen suggestions that the actual number of cases and deaths is far higher than what is being reported, though from here it is hard to evaluate. I do seriously doubt China will "fall"- did the Chernobyl disaster play a role in pushing the USSR over the edge?

Seems a little Chicken Little, but then I have read one in five earnings reports this quarter mention the virus, so I can believe economic impacts may not be getting priced into the markets.
  #68  
Old Today, 12:39 PM
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Are they putting this out there just to have a grabby headline? ... Seems a little Chicken Little ...
Agreed. I don't like treating investment firms as the arbiters of Truth and Reality.

Now I understand better why these firms sometimes have "real-person" names like "Raymond James" and "Arthur Andersen". Makes their pronouncements seem more authoritative.
  #69  
Old Today, 02:45 PM
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I don't know about "arbiters of Truth and Reality", but I like to look at the financial pages with a story like this. These guys don't get to manage billions in assets by being full of bs, so they tend to do a lot of data-driven analysis.

Still, comparing it to Chernobyl seems like hyperbole. Maybe they know something we don't? Who knows. My take is to filter out the Chernobyl stuff but note that they think the virus is going to drag on national economies. That may not be a total catastrophe, but it is still pretty serious.
  #70  
Old Today, 03:05 PM
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I don't know about "arbiters of Truth and Reality", but I like to look at the financial pages with a story like this. These guys don't get to manage billions in assets by being full of bs, so they tend to do a lot of data-driven analysis.
I applaud them for trying to analyze the chaos ... but very few of the returns are in this early. So to speak.
  #71  
Old Today, 05:15 PM
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A hospital director in Wuhan as died despite major efforts.

8th health care worker dead out of 3000 infected.

This is my concern based on what happened with SARS. The health care community is impacted and then things can go really bad quickly.
  #72  
Old Today, 06:12 PM
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I do seriously doubt China will "fall"- did the Chernobyl disaster play a role in pushing the USSR over the edge?
Yes, Chernobyl and its aftermath did play a role in the downfall of the USSR. It wasn't the only factor, but it was one of them.

That said, I think this situation is different and I very much doubt China's current government will "fall" due to this epidemic.

It will also have a global economic impact as well, given how important China's economy and manufacturing is. That doesn't mean the virus will become significant outside of China, it does mean it will hit us all in the finances.
  #73  
Old Today, 06:53 PM
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American who was on the cruise ship broke quarantine when it was docked in Cambodia. He's now home

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SEA-TAC AIRPORT, Wash. (KOMO) -- An Oregon comedian who had been stranded on a Holland America cruise ship in Cambodia due to COVID-19 virus concerns managed to get a flight back home by breaking quarantine in a hotel where ship's passengers were being held pending test results.

Frank King arrived at Sea-Tac Airport Monday afternoon on his way home to Eugene. He was a performer on the M/S Westerdam when their two-week cruise turned into quite the saga after a former passenger tested positive for the virus.

The ship left Hong Kong on Feb. 1 and was supposed to visit Shanghai but couldn’t because coronavirus gripped China. The ship was then denied entry in Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Guam and Thailand before finally being allowed to dock in Cambodia.

An 83-year-old woman who disembarked the ship tested positive for coronavirus in Malaysia, bringing the whole disembarking process to a halt. Some passengers had been put up in a five-star hotel in Phnom Penh awaiting travel home when the news of the positive test hit, meaning those on board and those at the hotel would have to all be tested and await results before being allowed to leave.

But King, who says he had an important speaking engagement back in the U.S. decided he couldn't wait.
I'm going to let other people have fun judging this person. And I'm not gonna freak out over the possibility that he spread the virus over the course of his travels. Cuz there is no point in freaking out.

But I gotta wonder if there were other Americans who did the same thing he did. If there are and they decide to stay under the radar (unlike Oregon guy), will we ever be told about them? I gotta think (hope?) some government official somewhere knows who they are and is keeping an eye on them, at the very least.
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