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  #851  
Old Today, 02:20 AM
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Good luck with that populist stuff. Bernie plays well with his base, but beyond that color me dubious.

That said, I believe (hope) that there are enough voters out there in the anyone but trump camp
  #852  
Old Today, 05:40 AM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
That cute, but it misperceives what voters think. Yes, those on the left see racism and sexual assault. Others see enforcing immigration laws and locker room talk.
We already knew that lots of Americans either tolerate or even welcome racism and misogyny.

Quote:
Bernie admits and is proud of what he is accused of.
This is false. Bernie rejects communism and has always done so. He's a socialist, which is different than a communist. Lots of folks don't see a difference, but they're as different as the USSR's system and Canada's system are different.

Quote:
Republicans can survive accusations of racism because there is debate over the truth of them.
No, they survive these accusations because lots of Americans tolerate or welcome racism. Just like the Democratic party for over a century, which targeted and capitalized on support from racist voters. Without the racists, the Republicans would be a small, regional party at best. Without the misogynists too, they probably couldn't win in a single state.
  #853  
Old Today, 11:02 AM
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To a populist like Bernie, though, he may be immune to sludge just like Trump in 2016. At a certain point, a duck's feathers get grease-saturated and water just rolls right off.
I don't fear that the significant-but-not-decisive group of hardcore Bernie fans will suddenly read a quote from him in the past, slap themselves on the forehead, and say "wait, THAT'S the kind of thing he says?" and abandon him. But the question is whether he can broaden is appeal to moderates, sane Republicans, people-who-voted-for-Trump-because-they-hate-the-system, etc, etc. Would some of those be initially attracted to him because they'd heard good buzz and seen a few soundbites they liked, but then be turned back off by the presumed mountain of sludge?
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  #854  
Old Today, 11:06 AM
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What is an actual cite, or evidence, that Bernie can't win?
Would you like an opinion from a political commentator with decent credentials? Here you go:
https://www.cityam.com/the-democrats...-donald-trump/

Any opinion of the November election at this point is going to be based on nothing more than the author's beliefs, and maybe a survey of what some other people believe based on the present circumstances. I can't say that the columnist I've cited will be proved correct in 8 1/2 months. Feel free to counter with a column by someone with a different opinion. You won't be able to honestly state as fact that their opinion will be proved correct in 8 1/2 months either.
  #855  
Old Today, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
I disagree. A vote is a vote. Voting is an expression of democratic principals but a vote is not an expression of a person's democratic principals, just their principles. For instance, there's nothing inherently democratic about banking regulation, yet people could certainly vote on things about bank regulation. The voting is what's democratic.
Thanks. I agree with you. "Political" would have been a better adjective than "democratic" in describing the principles expressed by voting.
  #856  
Old Today, 12:24 PM
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I don't support Sanders because he's 107 years old and had a recent heart attack. I much prefer Senator Warren.
  #857  
Old Today, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Wrenching Spanners View Post
Would you like an opinion from a political commentator with decent credentials? Here you go:
https://www.cityam.com/the-democrats...-donald-trump/

Any opinion of the November election at this point is going to be based on nothing more than the author's beliefs, and maybe a survey of what some other people believe based on the present circumstances. I can't say that the columnist I've cited will be proved correct in 8 1/2 months. Feel free to counter with a column by someone with a different opinion. You won't be able to honestly state as fact that their opinion will be proved correct in 8 1/2 months either.
Maybe a US opinion?
  #858  
Old Today, 01:19 PM
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Maybe a US opinion?
The author of the column is from the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hulsman
  #859  
Old Today, 05:57 PM
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I've absolutely given up making firm predictions since 2016, but... I actually am VERY concerned about this issue. This sounds a lot more conspiratorial than I normally like to be but... I very strongly suspect that there's some level of coordination among the Fox News etc cabal to all agree to GO EASY on Bernie, hoping that he becomes the nominee, at which point the sludgegates will open.

Why do I think that? Because, frankly, I'm amazed how _little_ we have heard from the right so far about Bernie's past. Trump has attacked (in his own grossly effective way) so many of his opponents, with his idiotic nicknames. Pochohantas, "little" Mike, etc. He was so desperate to attack Biden that he got himself impeached over it. But what's his nickname for Bernie? Is there one?

There's no way that there isn't a massive file full of factoids to present out of context... here's a photo of Bernie with a hammer and sickle flag. Here's a quote where it sure sounds like he's saying that Venezuela and Cuba are better than the USA. Etc etc etc. I just can't imagine that he's not vastly more vulnerable to that sort of thing than any other major dem candidate, given the way he has spent his public life.

Its's simple. Trump isn't attacking Bernie, because he wants Bernie to be the nominee, because he believes strongly that Bernie can't win an election against him. I agree with him.
  #860  
Old Today, 06:04 PM
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Its's simple. Trump isn't attacking Bernie, because he wants Bernie to be the nominee, because he believes strongly that Bernie can't win an election against him. I agree with him.
How does dt do in a one on one debate with bernie?
  #861  
Old Today, 06:07 PM
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How does dt do in a one on one debate with bernie?

The same as he does with any candidate. He'll call him names (socialist/communist), laugh at his wacky policy ideas, tell everyone how great the economy is, etc. His supporters will eat it up. Sanders supporters will celebrate victory. Everybody in between won't really care, because they've already heard all of this before.

The problem is that Bernie has no intention of trying to unite anyone. He won't compromise, won't concede that not everybody thinks his ideas are sensational, won't even pretend that he's going to try to work in a bipartisan fashion. That' strategy works for people that love everything about him. It's a turn-off for everyone else.

Last edited by Socsback; Today at 06:12 PM.
  #862  
Old Today, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
Bernie rejects communism and has always done so. He's a socialist, which is different than a communist. Lots of folks don't see a difference, but they're as different as the USSR's system and Canada's system are different. ...
A problem with this construction is that Bernie is on the record (on video) praising the USSR's system.

Attempts to say the USSR and communism are two different things won't convince many voters, however linguistically-erudite the attempt. Voters are already looking at video from Bernie's 1988 trip to the USSR, and more of them will be looking at it if he becomes the Democratic candidate.

The take of another American who visited the USSR at about the same time:

Quote:
...Sanders came back sounding like he had been bamboozled, like so many other credulous Westerners who visited the USSR and took what they were shown by their hosts at face value. Some of the juicier quotes, like the wince-inducing praise of Soviet youth organizations, are already floating around on social media.

Here's an example that has gone less noticed. It’s about health care, a subject vital to the Democrats.

Sanders was amazed at the open “self-criticism” of his Soviet hosts, who admitted that the USSR was 10 or 15 years behind America in medical technology. This seems quite candid, if you didn’t know a thing about the Soviet Union. In reality, it was a perfect example of the sophisticated way in which the Soviets to the very end played a canny game of public relations.

... The point here isn’t that Sanders should have known more about medicine. Rather, he should have known more about the Soviet Union. Maybe the Soviet health care system was behind by a decade in the best Kremlin hospitals. In the rest of the country, it was behind by a full century.

I’ve taken one example from many in just one news conference, but there are others. ...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...mn/4787722002/

The term "useful idiot" has been applied to Bernie's enthusiasm about a dying communist system. His fans will have difficulty in countering this view.

(my emphasis in the quote)
  #863  
Old Today, 07:00 PM
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It's a big field in a sui generis historic moment. To me this just says "Axe to grind."
That's one way of ignoring facts.

The facts in question:

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Originally Posted by Sherrerd View Post
Well, so far in 2020, he's lost votes he was getting in 2016:

BS in IOWA:
2016 – 84,870 (=49.6% *of 171,109**)
2020 – 45,936 (=26.1% of 176,000)

I. DEM TURNOUT:
2016 - 171,109**
2020 – 176,000 (versus 238,000 in 2008)


BS in NEW HAMPSHIRE:
2016 – 151,000 votes (60.4% of NH Dem primary voters)
2020 – 75,110 (25.8%)

NH. DEM TURNOUT:
2016 – 254,780
2020 – 295,000

* https://www.nytimes.com/live/iowa-caucus-2016-election/
** https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...iowa-caucuses/

When Sanders supporters have been asked about this on-air, the only answer I've heard them make is some variation on 'well, in 2020 there are more choices.'

But if their main argument is that Bernie Sanders is the candidate who generates enthusiasm, then shouldn't at least as many people who were enthusiastic about him in 2016, be enthusiastic about him in 2020?

If a main selling point for Sanders is that he will bring out people who've never before voted, then how is that good if he's losing people who normally vote? (If you posit that his 2020 numbers are made up of new voters, then the fact that the 2020 numbers are much smaller than the 2016 numbers means that he's lost 'reliable voters' who did vote for him in 2016 but declined to do so in 2020.)

I just can't see a way of spinning these facts as being supportive of the "Sanders is the vote-getter, Sanders is the one who will increase turnout" argument.

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Originally Posted by drad dog View Post
Do you think bernie can compete for the obama/ trump voters?
I asked my question (bolded) first. Answer mine, then I'll answer yours.
  #864  
Old Today, 07:05 PM
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I will vote for bernie. Not my first choice, however.

My main two complaints is that we wont leash his rabid followers and that I hate the name of his health Plan. (it has nothing whatsoever to do with Medicare).

But he is still 1000X better than the incumbent.
  #865  
Old Today, 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
I will vote for bernie. Not my first choice, however.

My main two complaints is that we wont leash his rabid followers and that I hate the name of his health Plan. (it has nothing whatsoever to do with Medicare).

But he is still 1000X better than the incumbent.
I agree. If Bernie is the Democratic nominee then I will vote for him.
  #866  
Old Today, 07:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Socsback View Post
The same as he does with any candidate. He'll call him names (socialist/communist), laugh at his wacky policy ideas, tell everyone how great the economy is, etc. His supporters will eat it up. Sanders supporters will celebrate victory. Everybody in between won't really care, because they've already heard all of this before.

The problem is that Bernie has no intention of trying to unite anyone. He won't compromise, won't concede that not everybody thinks his ideas are sensational, won't even pretend that he's going to try to work in a bipartisan fashion. That' strategy works for people that love everything about him. It's a turn-off for everyone else.
I just think there is a danger of telling ourselves stories about the world these days, especially about the invincibility of dt.

Plenty of people here don't think that it matters that there is an election going on, lasting over 9 months, where things "happen." I guess the future got cancelled.

Bernie is dong things that unite the vast majority of real voters. I haven't heard him turn anybody away.

He's not kowtowing to the other party? And saying it out loud? in this era? The only people talking about bipartisanship are right wing concern trolls.
  #867  
Old Today, 07:13 PM
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That's one way of ignoring facts.

The facts in question:






I asked my question (bolded) first. Answer mine, then I'll answer yours.

It is your opinion really and not a question. I don't accept the premise.

Maybe there are rules of thumb about how and why bernie should retain voters but I don't know them and you would have cited one if it existed.
  #868  
Old Today, 07:27 PM
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A few months ago I would never have imagined I’d be at this point. Early voting for Super Tuesday started today here in Texas. I went today and pulled the lever for Bernie, on the theory that if he doesn’t get the nomination that the Democratic Party will likely tear itself apart at the convention. There’s a lot of reasons to go with someone other than Bernie. If, however, he gets a plurality of the primary delegates and gets screwed over at the convention (which seems like the most likely scenario according to Nate Silver)* I believe that could be enough to trigger Republican control of government for at least a generation. So I went for Bernie to try to get him as close to that majority as possible.

* Yes, I know Silver explicitly states he is not predicting the outcome of a brokered convention. But it seems obvious to me that Bernie would likely get screwed over in such a scenario if he has something like 40% of the pledged delegates. If he’s up in the high 40s his chances seem better.

Last edited by FlikTheBlue; Today at 07:28 PM.
  #869  
Old Today, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Sherrerd View Post
A problem with this construction is that Bernie is on the record (on video) praising the USSR's system.



Attempts to say the USSR and communism are two different things won't convince many voters, however linguistically-erudite the attempt. Voters are already looking at video from Bernie's 1988 trip to the USSR, and more of them will be looking at it if he becomes the Democratic candidate.



The take of another American who visited the USSR at about the same time:



https://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...mn/4787722002/



The term "useful idiot" has been applied to Bernie's enthusiasm about a dying communist system. His fans will have difficulty in countering this view.



(my emphasis in the quote)
There weren't any actual quotes by Bernie in that op-ed that I could see - just this guy's opinion of Bernie.

Maybe he's right... But there were much, much more damning videos of Trump out there in 2016 than what's described about Bernie. And even more than that, there are countless videos of Trump praising authoritarians and being openly bamboozled by them from just the last few years. It's hard to imagine that there are any voters out there who truly care about having a president who isn't bamboozled by authoritarians, but would vote for Trump.

I'm sure they'll try and weaponize this stuff against Bernie. I'm just skeptical that it will be effective - not after Trump has basically obliterated the idea that a president needs to be a serious and thoughtful person. Voters who actually care about this kind of thing already oppose Trump.
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  #870  
Old Today, 07:50 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
There weren't any actual quotes by Bernie in that op-ed that I could see - just this guy's opinion of Bernie.

Maybe he's right... But there were much, much more damning videos of Trump out there in 2016 than what's described about Bernie. And even more than that, there are countless videos of Trump praising authoritarians and being openly bamboozled by them from just the last few years. It's hard to imagine that there are any voters out there who truly care about having a president who isn't bamboozled by authoritarians, but would vote for Trump.

I'm sure they'll try and weaponize this stuff against Bernie. I'm just skeptical that it will be effective - not after Trump has basically obliterated the idea that a president needs to be a serious and thoughtful person. Voters who actually care about this kind of thing already oppose Trump.
Right. It would also be an easy matter for Bernie to point out that he’s not the one that’s cozying up to the leader of Russia.
  #871  
Old Today, 08:06 PM
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A more quippy response:

Okay, Bernie might have been wrong in the 80s. But he was right about Iraq in 2003. He's right about health care. He's right about the overwhelming influence of the rich and corporations. On the other hand, Trump has been wrong for his entire presidency, about Russia, the Middle East, and just about everything else.
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  #872  
Old Today, 08:16 PM
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Bernie rejects communism and has always done so.
Sorry, but Bernie ran as a candidate, for presidential elector, for the Socialist Workers Party, which is, survey says, communist.

Someone might be thinking that, well, Trump can lie, so why can't we? It did get him 46 percent. The answer comes from the famous Adlai Stevenson misquote: “Governor, every thinking person would be voting for you”. He retorted, “Madam, that is not enough. I need a majority.” I think getting a majority requires not having to convince elderly Pennsylvanians that Lenin was a fine chap and only Stalin was the bad one.
  #873  
Old Today, 08:32 PM
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There weren't any actual quotes by Bernie in that op-ed that I could see - just this guy's opinion of Bernie.
Here's the full (52-minute) press conference Bernie gave about his USSR trip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KCo...ature=youtu.be

The Washington Post, writing about the same post-USSR news conference (and other Bernie connections with communist regimes), offers some quotes in this article:

Quote:
As he stood on Soviet soil, Sanders, then 46 years old, criticized the cost of housing and health care in the United States, while lauding the lower prices — but not the quality — of that available in the Soviet Union. Then, at a banquet attended by about 100 people, Sanders blasted the way the United States had intervened in other countries, stunning one of those who had accompanied him.

...Sanders had visited Nicaragua in 1985 and hailed the revolution led by Daniel Ortega, which President Ronald Reagan opposed. “I was impressed,” Sanders said then of Ortega, while allowing that “I will be attacked by every editorial writer for being a dumb dope.” At the same time, Sanders voiced admiration for the Cuban revolution led by Fidel Castro, whom Reagan and many others in both parties routinely denounced.

...Throughout the [USSR] trip, local officials took aside members of Sanders’s entourage, telling them that the Soviet system was near collapse. ...Returning to Vermont, Sanders held an hour-long news conference in which he extolled Russian policies on housing and health care, while criticizing the cost of both in the United States — and boasted that he was willing to criticize his homeland.

“The fact that we were willing to be critical of the United States . . . I think that made them maybe more appreciative of our criticisms we made of their own society,” Sanders said then.

...Sanders, meanwhile, was so enthused by the trip that he soon began planning his next foreign venture: a visit to Cuba the following year, during his last month as mayor.

“Under Castro, enormous progress has been made in improving the lives of poor people,” Sanders said before leaving, while noting “enormous deficiencies” in democratic rights. While he failed in his goal to meet Fidel Castro, he returned home with even greater praise than he had for the Soviet Union. ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...6d5_story.html




Quote:
Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
... But there were much, much more damning videos of Trump out there in 2016 than what's described about Bernie. And even more than that, there are countless videos of Trump praising authoritarians and being openly bamboozled by them from just the last few years. It's hard to imagine that there are any voters out there who truly care about having a president who isn't bamboozled by authoritarians, but would vote for Trump. ...
The people who believe Trump is NOT bamboozled by authoritarians would never consider voting for anyone but Trump (as you intimated). They are self-deceiving cultists who genuinely think Trump is a competent adult. (!)

The problem is that there are people who voted for Trump who never really bought into the Trump Cult. Maybe they're lifelong Republicans, or maybe they're people who just wanted to see the system shook up. Those people might consider voting for the Dem candidate so as to get rid of Trump (with whom they're not in love).

The 'Bernie praises the USSR/Communists/Fidel Castro/Daniel Ortega' stuff won't help get their votes. It will freak them out. They may not actually vote for Trump in reaction to the 'Communist' news about BS----but their non-votes, or votes for 3rd-party candidates, will, in effect, be votes for Trump.
  #874  
Old Today, 08:37 PM
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On the other hand, Trump has been wrong for his entire presidency, about Russia, the Middle East, and just about everything else.
Trump was also wrong before he was president. He was wrong about the Central Park Five. He was wrong about where Obama was born. He was wrong about a Muslim Gold Star mother not being allowed to speak. He was probably even wrong about Megyn Kelly having her period that day. And he won.

Combine the power of incumbency with DJT's outstanding abilities as a negative campaigner, and any Democratic is going to be an underdog once Trump gets done with them. But why make it easy for him to paint opponents as just as bad as he is?

All candidates have weaknesses. But the current top 3 (Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg) have extraordinary negatives. I personally think that Pete is less of a risk, and the female candidates would have the best chance in November.
  #875  
Old Today, 08:53 PM
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He's not kowtowing to the other party? And saying it out loud? in this era? The only people talking about bipartisanship are right wing concern trolls.

Trump supporters are proud of their guy for the same reason (not kowtowing to the other party). The problem is that we all just end up in a tug-o-war that nobody wins.......... ever.
  #876  
Old Today, 09:23 PM
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Trump supporters are proud of their guy for the same reason (not kowtowing to the other party). The problem is that we all just end up in a tug-o-war that nobody wins.......... ever.
Then why have the republicans have won all such tugs of war.

You don't sound like you have been a democrat over the last 5 years.
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