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  #401  
Old 03-14-2019, 06:58 PM
clairobscur is offline
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Originally Posted by Inner Stickler View Post
My understanding is yes, May will now go to the EU and request an extension until the end of June. Not sure when the EU needs to respond.
What is the likelihood that the issue will have been solved by the end of June? What does May intend to do during the next three months?
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  #402  
Old 03-14-2019, 07:43 PM
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What will the UK do wrt Brexit?


Make more fudge.

With red line icing.

Last edited by Northern Piper; 03-14-2019 at 07:44 PM.
  #403  
Old 03-14-2019, 07:48 PM
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What is the likelihood that the issue will have been solved by the end of June? What does May intend to do during the next three months?
The three month extension would be if the House of Commons somehow votes to approve the deal in the next few days. If the "meaningful vote" passes somehow, the deal still has to be enacted into UK law, and that could easily be a fractious process all on its own, so it wouldn't be done before March 29.

It probably won't be approved and the request will probably be for a longer period of time, not that anybody knows what the UK would do with that time either.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 03-14-2019 at 07:50 PM.
  #404  
Old 03-14-2019, 08:19 PM
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If Parliament votes to approve the deal early next week (which seems to me very unlikely) then, when May turns up at the European Council asking for a short extension, she'll probably get it, to facilitate implementation of the agreed deal. (On a nitpick, she may not get it to 30 June, which is what she will ask for, but she is likely to get at least something shorter).

What if parliament again rejects the deal, and then May turns up looking for a short extension?

All the signs are that the heads of government will say "What for? The negotiations are finished and will not be reopened. What do you propose to do in this short extension that could possibly change anything for the better?" And May will need to have a convincing answer.

If the answer is "As I have failed to secure the support of my own party for a Brexit deal, I propose to approach other parties and try to build cross-party consensus in support of a new deal" (which is the answer several influential voices in the EU have suggested she needs to offer), that invites the response "a short extension is not going to be enough for that. Let's talk 9 months, 12 months, 2 years, something like that". There is no assurance that there would be unanimous agreement (which is what is required) between each of the EU member states and the UK on the need for a long extension or on the terms and conditions on which it might be given, but the idea is at least not obviously nonsensical. But a short extension to radically rethink the UK's approach to Brexit, develop a cross-party consensus on a necessarily softer Brexit than is currently proposed, and then craft a new deal with the EU, nope. Not gonna happen.

The other possible answer May might offer is "I want a short extension so we can both prepare better for the crash-out Brexit which is now inevitable". The EU might grant this, or they might not; it would entirely depend on whether they thought it was to the advantage of the EU. They couldn't give a stuff as to whether it's of any benefit at all to May or to the UK. If they feel they are alreasdy as well-prepared as they can be for a UK crash-out, they may see no merit in prolonging the agony; they have other things to do that require their attention.
  #405  
Old 03-14-2019, 09:31 PM
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Actually, the one person I sympathise with the most is Theresa May, who herself voted to Remain, IIRC, yet was put in a position to handle the Brexit storm that Cameron brought upon them.


I disagree. Why would someone who believed it was best to Remain be a good leader to implement Leave? Why would she put herself forward to implement a policy she disagreed with?

I think the fact that the PM is at heart a Remainer is the source of the "red lines" / conditions that have caused so much of the difficulty in the negotiations with the EU.

Better to have a true Leave PM who would be more inclined to take a harder "Leave means leave" approach. Doesn't necessarily mean that it would have worked, but you'd have much clearer lines of disagreement.

Of course, that might have broken the Tory Party, which is probably one of the things keeping May going.
  #406  
Old 03-14-2019, 10:55 PM
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Meanwhile, Nigel Farage and some of his allies have apparently been lobbying to get at least one EU member to veto any request from May for an extension on the March 29 deadline.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...ents-1-4889246
  #407  
Old 03-15-2019, 12:43 AM
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I disagree. Why would someone who believed it was best to Remain be a good leader to implement Leave? Why would she put herself forward to implement a policy she disagreed with?

I think the fact that the PM is at heart a Remainer is the source of the "red lines" / conditions that have caused so much of the difficulty in the negotiations with the EU.

Better to have a true Leave PM who would be more inclined to take a harder "Leave means leave" approach. Doesn't necessarily mean that it would have worked, but you'd have much clearer lines of disagreement.

Of course, that might have broken the Tory Party, which is probably one of the things keeping May going.
I don't think she is at heart a remainer; she presented as such in the referendum campaign because she thought it was politically expedient to do so, but even at the time her remaininess was so obviously watery that a lot of people felt that her heart wasn't in it, and said so.

And, as Prime Minister, she hewed from fairly early on to a hard Brexit that was not required either by the terms of the referendum result or by the nature of the campaign that had preceded it. I take the point that she may have been doing so partly because of the need to convince others of her Leavish credentials, but that need arises equally whether she is genuinely a remainer or whether she just posed as one for [what she thought at the time was] political advantage.

And I think the hardness of her Brexit stance reflects her own sincere instincts about the need to end free movement and the need to escape the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

Given the diversity of Brexits offered by the Leave campaign and the narrowness of the leave victory, it's fairly clear that the median Briton, so to speak, favours Brexit, but a very soft form of Brexit. This was always going to be - and indeed still is - the model of Brexit around which it was going to be easiest to secure some form of consensus involving a degree of loser's assent, which was clearly going to be needed. May instead chose to move well to the right and target a hard brexit right from the get-go, which was always going to cause her problems. I can't account for that except by thinking that it accorded with her own instincts.

It now suits aggrievved hard leavers to accuse her - and many others - of being Remainers, but what they really mean by this is "not sufficiently zealous for the extreme form of Brexit that we favour". On this analysis, someone who supports Brexit, but favours a Norwegian-style relationship with the EU, or a Swiss-style relationship with the EU, or a Turkish-style relationship with the EU, or even someone who favours the much harder relationship that May is targetting, is nevertheless a Remainer. At the same time, all the 17.4 million people who voted for leave are deemed to be true Leavers, on the frankly ludicrous assumption that they all did so because they favoured the purest and most extreme form of Brexit, and will accept no less.

Last edited by UDS; 03-15-2019 at 12:45 AM.
  #408  
Old 03-15-2019, 01:54 AM
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The three month extension would be if the House of Commons somehow votes to approve the deal in the next few days. If the "meaningful vote" passes somehow, the deal still has to be enacted into UK law, and that could easily be a fractious process all on its own, so it wouldn't be done before March 29.

It probably won't be approved and the request will probably be for a longer period of time, not that anybody knows what the UK would do with that time either.
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If Parliament votes to approve the deal early next week (which seems to me very unlikely) then, when May turns up at the European Council asking for a short extension, she'll probably get it, to facilitate implementation of the agreed deal. (On a nitpick, she may not get it to 30 June, which is what she will ask for, but she is likely to get at least something shorter).

What if parliament again rejects the deal, and then May turns up looking for a short extension?.

Thanks for the answers.
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  #409  
Old 03-15-2019, 02:39 AM
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Actually, the one person I sympathise with the most is Theresa May, who herself voted to Remain, IIRC, yet was put in a position to handle the Brexit storm that Cameron brought upon them.
I have a modicum of respect for her for at least stepping up to take charge of Brexit when all the gowls who campaigned for it suddenly decided they had to be washing their hair or something.

But she bollixed it up badly by (a) triggering Article 50 without a plan and (b) calling an election. Both of these were fatal mistakes.

Last edited by ruadh; 03-15-2019 at 02:40 AM.
  #410  
Old 03-15-2019, 02:56 AM
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The EU is definitely not as well prepared as they can be: the specific point which comes to mind is they have not yet hired an adequate number of customs officials.

I think they will give May an extension up to May 22 for any reason (EU Parliament elections start May 23). But a longer extension would cause problems for the European Parliament so the EU will only give it for a strong reason. One popular idea is an extension until the end of the budgetary period (December 31, 2020).
  #411  
Old 03-15-2019, 03:30 AM
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I have a modicum of respect for her for at least stepping up to take charge of Brexit when all the gowls who campaigned for it suddenly decided they had to be washing their hair or something.
Actually they were busy stabbing each other in the back, and in any case were not found appealing enough by their parliamentary colleagues to be put forward to the party members. When it came down to it, she was the only shilling article in a sixpenny bazaar.

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  #412  
Old 03-15-2019, 05:31 AM
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I'm with UDS rather than Northern Piper on Theresa May. She's not a Remainer. She presented herself as one to back what she thought was the winning horse. Contrast with Boris, who is equally duplicitous and sought to back a losing horse to magnify his stature, expecting to lose regardless, a la Trump.
  #413  
Old 03-15-2019, 06:10 AM
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I don't think she is at heart a remainer; she presented as such in the referendum campaign because she thought it was politically expedient to do so, but even at the time her remaininess was so obviously watery that a lot of people felt that her heart wasn't in it, and said so.
<snip>
And I think the hardness of her Brexit stance reflects her own sincere instincts about the need to end free movement and the need to escape the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
<further text snipped>
May, and quite a few other senior Conservatives, were labelled as "reluctant remainers". They disliked the EU government, and the movement for "ever closer union", but recognised the economic advantages of the free trade agreement and cross-border agencies. Indeed, that was the viewpoint of a substantial amount of remain voters. It's not surprising that May, having found herself in charge of Brexit, decided on a strategy that would minimise the economic disruption of Brexit, but still seek a significant separation from the EU.

What is surprising is how bad she's been at the politics of government since she became PM. She's failed at communication, delegation, personal leadership, and compromise. I think her only choice now is to pray that Parliament itself can find a compromise position through indicative votes that the EU will agree with. I can't see a third vote on her plan getting a majority unless there are changes to the Irish backstop. I also don't see her compromising with Corbyn or winning over Labour Leave MP's. Basically, I think she's simply hanging on at this point, hoping for either a miracle or someone else to lead Parliament out of this mess.
  #414  
Old 03-15-2019, 06:53 AM
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It doesn't sound like the EU is particularly eager to consider a different 'leave' plan. Didn't one of their officials say in the last couple of days that the only things the EU was likely to grant more time for were (a) more time to prepare for an exit either under the negotiated plan or under no plan at all if a decision has been arrived at, or (b) for a new referendum.
  #415  
Old 03-15-2019, 06:53 AM
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Mynd you, ämëndments kan be pretti nasti...
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An ämëndment once bit my sister... No realli!
So instead of the Norway model we're moving to the Sweden model?
  #416  
Old 03-15-2019, 09:49 AM
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So instead of the Norway model we're moving to the Sweden model?
No- the King Arthur Model
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:05 AM
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No- the King Arthur Model
Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords may not be a sound basis for a system of government but given that a mandate from the masses is what got us into this situation in the first place I'm willing to consider it at this point.
  #418  
Old 03-15-2019, 11:36 AM
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Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords may not be a sound basis for a system of government but given that a mandate from the masses is what got us into this situation in the first place I'm willing to consider it at this point.
But what if that strange woman turns out to be Teresa May?
  #419  
Old 03-15-2019, 12:01 PM
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But what if that strange woman turns out to be Teresa May?
Can't see her in a lake. She's mostly into fields of wheat.
  #420  
Old 03-15-2019, 12:15 PM
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Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords may not be a sound basis for a system of government but given that a mandate from the masses is what got us into this situation in the first place I'm willing to consider it at this point.
Is Penny Mordaunt having another go at reality TV? She's pro-leave, so it kind of works.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol...tom-daley-show
  #421  
Old 03-15-2019, 02:41 PM
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But what if that strange woman turns out to be Teresa May?
Throw the sword back in the lake, saunter away nonchalantly, and forget it ever happened.

It does seem she did the best she could in an impossible situation, with the EU negotiations - no other PM could have reached a more favo(u)rable agreement for the UK and still have something that could be called Brexit, could they? It's only her unaccountable determination not to get it ratified by referendum that has brought the country to the brink.
  #422  
Old 03-15-2019, 02:57 PM
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It's only her unaccountable determination not to get it ratified by referendum that has brought the country to the brink.
Hardly "only". The lack of a parliamentary majority, especially one that could outweigh the ERG and DUPs is her primary problem. Ratification by referendum, even if parliament passed the relevant legislation, wouldn't get the legislation for implementation approved.
  #423  
Old 03-17-2019, 07:59 PM
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It doesn't sound like the EU is particularly eager to consider a different 'leave' plan. Didn't one of their officials say in the last couple of days that the only things the EU was likely to grant more time for were (a) more time to prepare for an exit either under the negotiated plan or under no plan at all if a decision has been arrived at, or (b) for a new referendum.
In truth, they'd be quite keen to consider a different 'leave' plan for a much softer Brexit, if the UK were to seek one. But they see no point in saying so; politically that seems a wildly unlikely turn of events, and for the to be seen to "demand" it at this point would be counterproductive. So what the EU says here is on the unspoken but understood assumption that the UK isn't about to rethink its approach to Brexit, suddenly drop its red lines, and come back and look for a soft brexit deal.

Last edited by UDS; 03-17-2019 at 08:02 PM.
  #424  
Old 03-17-2019, 10:13 PM
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Best Brexit analogy:

Dutch PM compares Theresa May to Monty Python limbless knight
  #425  
Old 03-18-2019, 03:06 AM
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Best Brexit analogy was awarded some time ago to this twitter thread by Hugo Rifkind, and I'm afraid the award is perpetual and irrevocable.
  #426  
Old 03-18-2019, 03:57 AM
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The EU is definitely not as well prepared as they can be: the specific point which comes to mind is they have not yet hired an adequate number of customs officials.
The EU wouldn't be hiring customs officials. Each country would. And for example in the case of Spain there is no such thing as a job as "customs official": it's part of the job of our military and police, mainly the Guardia Civil.
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  #427  
Old 03-18-2019, 11:08 AM
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Bercow rules out another vote on May's deal, Parliament's rejection of it is binding.
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:16 AM
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A significant development, that I predicted last week.

Bercow has announced that he will refuse to allow May's withdrawal agreement to be voted on again if it is 'substantially the same'.
"If the government wishes to bring forward a new proposition that is neither the same nor substantially the same as that disposed of by the house on 12 March, this would be entirely in order. What the government cannot legitimately do is to resubmit to the House the same proposition or substantially the same proposition as that of last week, which was rejected by 149 votes."
From the Guardian live feed a few minutes ago:

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John Bercow, the Common speaker, is making a surprise statement to MPs.

He says there has been much speculation about another meaningful vote.

On 13 March Angela Eagle, the Labour MP, asked if it would be proper for the government to keep putting the same motion to a vote. He says MPs from both sides of the House, and from both sides of the argument, have expressed their concerns to him their concerns about MPs voting on the same thing over and over again.

Erskine May, the parliamentary rulebook, says an issue that has been decided in substance cannot be brought back to the Commons. Bercow says ultimately it is for the chair to rule on this.

This convention dates back to 1604, he says. He says Chris Bryant, the Labour MP, gave examples in a speech last week examples of speakers ruling a motion could not be brought back because it had already been decided. Erskine May refers to 12 such rulings before 1920.

This is a necessary rule to ensure the sensible use of the house’s time, and proper respect for what it decides.

He says the absence of rulings since 1920 is due not to the lapse of the convention, but to compliance with it.

Bercow wants to summarise the chronology of events.

He says the EU withdrawal agreement was published on 14 November. The agreement was endorsed by the European council on 25 November. The first scheduled vote on the deal was due to take place on 11 December. But, on 10 December, the vote was postponed after 164 speeches had been made over three of the five days alloted for the debate.
"That postponement was not caused by me, nor the house, but by the government."
Bercow says he said at the time MPs should get a vote on the postponement. But they did not get one.

The first meaningful vote was on 15 January. It was lost by 230 votes. The next one was due in February. It was postponed, and the vote took place last week. That vote was lost too.

Bercow says the vote last week did not go against the “no repeat votes” (my paraphrase) rule. There had been changes to the legal agreement. And three new documents had been published, he says. He says in procedural terms it was quite proper that the debate and second vote took place. The government responded by scheduling debates on a no-deal debate and on an article 50 extension.

Bercow says it has been rumoured third, or possibly fourth, votes may be scheduled. So he is setting out his views.

If the government brings forward a new proposition, that would be in order. But the government cannot bring back “the same proposition”, or “substantially the same proposition”.

He says this is not his final ruling on the matter. He is just setting out the test the government must meet.

...

Labour’s Hilary Benn, the chair of the Brexit committee, asks if Bercow’s statement means the government would have to get the EU to agree to changes to the agremeent. Or would it be enough for the government to offer concessions to a party in the Commons (ie, the DUP).

Bercow says, thinking off the top of his head, “in all likelihood, the answer to [Benn’s] question is yes”.

A change of opinion about something is not the same as a change to the offer, he says. He says he would have to look at this. Fundamentally, for something to be different, it has to be fundamentally different. Not just different by wording, he says; different by substance.

The EU will certainly never agree to any 'substantial differences' in the agreement. So it looks like Theresa May's withdrawal agreement is finally... finally... finally... dead and buried. Perhaps it will now be possible to make some reasonable progress.
  #429  
Old 03-18-2019, 11:29 AM
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Best Brexit analogy was awarded some time ago to this twitter thread by Hugo Rifkind, and I'm afraid the award is perpetual and irrevocable.
Brexit = a limbless knight building a submarine out of cheese.
  #430  
Old 03-18-2019, 11:33 AM
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I seem to remember Cameron drawing on the same sketch to describe the travails of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn who is also the leader of a very fractious party.

Cameron, despite is appalling judgement, was quite an entertaining performer at the weekly bunfight that is Prime Minister Question Time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSRqRAEK_zM

Both the Conservative and Labour parties are both in dreadful state with weak leadership and challenged to dealing with answering a political question on which there is no clear agreement. It is painful to watch.

The British political system relies on one party having a big enough majority to pursue a political programme. It really does not work very well with minority governments dependent on doing deals with other parties that is normal on the Continent. They usually spend many months, sometimes years negotiating until they come with a working coalition. Consequently they will be highly doubtful that a short extension of Article 50 will be at all useful.

The politicians in many EU states are quite used to horse trading with other parties and I can understand their exasperation at how May is handling this. But then they have probably not had to deal with the DUP and the stubborn, uncompromising attitudes for which they are famous.
  #431  
Old 03-18-2019, 11:37 AM
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Guardian article and video of Bercow.

Brexit: John Bercow rules out third meaningful vote on same deal

He's shot the WA with a silver bullet, driven a stake through its heart, and buried it at the crossroads.
  #432  
Old 03-18-2019, 11:45 AM
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The EU wouldn't be hiring customs officials. Each country would. And for example in the case of Spain there is no such thing as a job as "customs official": it's part of the job of our military and police, mainly the Guardia Civil.
You are being pedantic. Previously in this discussion the EU has referred to both the EU governmental organization and the countries which make up the EU. For example posters have said that not only the UK but also the EU will have significantly increased trade costs. But did you bother to explain to them that the EU doesn't have trade costs, only the residents and businesses of individual countries?
  #433  
Old 03-18-2019, 01:37 PM
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The EU will certainly never agree to any 'substantial differences' in the agreement. So it looks like Theresa May's withdrawal agreement is finally... finally... finally... dead and buried. Perhaps it will now be possible to make some reasonable progress.
And what "progress" would that be?

To my observation, the most likely "progress" towards Brexit, now that there has been an significant expression of will from Parliament that a "no deal" exit must not be allowed, that it's either The Only Deal They've Ever Put On The Table To The EU, and to agree to it by March 29th; or to do a retraction of Article 50.

Any other option, like "extension while we keep talking about it", is just more limbo time that the EU has said they won't accept.

I do think it's fair to put it to a "third vote" if it were made clear that the realistic options are the May Terms for Brexit, or no Brexit at all, and see where the vote goes - as the "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal" option was killed (wasn't it?), it's proper to allow the significant proportion of such voters to get to name their backup option.

Just what did that "cannot leave without a deal" resolution ultimately mean, anyway?
  #434  
Old 03-18-2019, 01:54 PM
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Any other option, like "extension while we keep talking about it", is just more limbo time that the EU has said they won't accept.
Nonsense, the EU has said it will be happy to grant an extension if the UK will do something reasonable with it - like a second referendum, or taking the Norway option, or anything else constructive, like a general election.

If Labour supports a second referendum - and it seems likely they will - then there's no doubt it will pass, because a number of Tories will support it too. Theresa May's attempt to blackmail parliament into accepting her deal has failed.

Last edited by GreenWyvern; 03-18-2019 at 01:57 PM.
  #435  
Old 03-18-2019, 02:48 PM
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The EU will certainly never agree to any 'substantial differences' in the agreement. So it looks like Theresa May's withdrawal agreement is finally... finally... finally... dead and buried. Perhaps it will now be possible to make some reasonable progress.
Bercow suggested during the Q&A that it could possibly pass the "substantial difference" test if a confirmatory referendum was promised. I don't know how realistic a possibility that is.
  #436  
Old 03-18-2019, 02:49 PM
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1.) Has EU indicated that a “Norway deal” would be acceptable to them?

2.) Your antecedents need clarifying. If Labour were to propose a second referendum, what exactly would be sure to pass? The proposal for a new referendum, or a referendum calling for a Brexit?
  #437  
Old 03-18-2019, 05:16 PM
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Bercow rules out another vote on May's deal, Parliament's rejection of it is binding.
Question for you and any other helpful posters. Does the Commons have the U.S. equivalent of "Appealing from the Decision of the Chair"?

IOW, if Bercow says that we cannot vote on this or that, can an MP review his decision by presenting it to a vote of the Commons?
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Old 03-18-2019, 06:07 PM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
Question for you and any other helpful posters. Does the Commons have the U.S. equivalent of "Appealing from the Decision of the Chair"?

IOW, if Bercow says that we cannot vote on this or that, can an MP review his decision by presenting it to a vote of the Commons?
There's a few articles on the BBC website explaining what could happen next. The short answer is no, his decision is final. The long answer is that his prohibition of another vote is perhaps narrower than it seems - one suggestion is that a vote on the deal with a referendum to confirm it would be sufficiently different to be acceptable.

Other possibilities would be to amend the rules of Parliament to allow another vote, but that would require a majority vote by the House, and couldn't be imposed by the Government. Also, the rule is that another vote on the same measure can't be held in this session of Parliament, meaning that theoretically this session could be prorouged and another started in which the vote could legitimately be held. I'm not clear on exactly how that would be accomplished, though.

Ultimately, this is a strong reminder to May and the Government that they work for Parliament, and not the other way round, and that she must remember that when going to the EU for an extension later in the week.
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Old 03-18-2019, 06:42 PM
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I've been trying to game-plan the possible outcomes.

If MV3 were to take place after a prorogation, I could see an amendment to approve the deal as long as it's ratified in a referendum with Remain as the other option passing.

If it were a general election, I think that would just cause more chaos. The opinion polls are belying the fact that the Tories are barely a single party any more. Brexit cuts across party lines, and while labour will be similarly muffled in their campaigning, I would not be surprised to see the Tories actually splitting one way or another.

Even if they stay together by some miracle I doubt it will clarify matters one jot. Tactical voting will be insane.


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  #440  
Old 03-18-2019, 07:11 PM
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1.) Has EU indicated that a “Norway deal” would be acceptable to them?

2.) Your antecedents need clarifying. If Labour were to propose a second referendum, what exactly would be sure to pass? The proposal for a new referendum, or a referendum calling for a Brexit?
1.) Yes

2.) The former
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Old 03-18-2019, 07:50 PM
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I've been trying to game-plan the possible outcomes.

If MV3 were to take place after a prorogation, I could see an amendment to approve the deal as long as it's ratified in a referendum with Remain as the other option passing.
I think a motion to submit May's deal to a referendum could be held without an intervening prorogation. A motion calling for a referndum is substantially different from a motion to ratify the deal.

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Originally Posted by Malden Capell View Post
If it were a general election, I think that would just cause more chaos. The opinion polls are belying the fact that the Tories are barely a single party any more. Brexit cuts across party lines, and while labour will be similarly muffled in their campaigning, I would not be surprised to see the Tories actually splitting one way or another.

Even if they stay together by some miracle I doubt it will clarify matters one jot. Tactical voting will be insane.
Depends. At the very least, a general election is highly likely to take the DUP out of the frame, which would simplify matters. And if May can impose a manifesto on the party which includes "Brexit on the terms of May's deal", and get a majority in the election, there'd be a fair following wind for the ratification of the deal by Parliament.
  #442  
Old 03-19-2019, 05:45 AM
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From the Daily Mash:

I only smirked because it was f**king hilarious, says Bercow

Quote:
THE Speaker of the House has clarified that he only smirked when cancelling a third Brexit vote yesterday because it was so incredibly funny.

John Bercow admitted that he spent the whole weekend, during which senior Tories pontificated about who would change sides and offered the DUP a Range Rover Evoque each, absolutely weak with laughter but had managed to calm it down.

He continued: “This is why it had to be a surprise statement. If Theresa had been there on the front bench there’s no way I could have got through it without breaking down.

“Just seeing Leadsom in her poisonous little fury had me biting the inside of my cheek hard. The face on her.

“I basically got a bunch of self-righteous will-of-the-people arseholes all standing on the one trapdoor, then pulled a wooden lever installed in 1604 they’d all forgotten about.

“Jacob Rees-Mogg got it. He was absolutely pissing his sides afterwards. He’s a good lad.”

Bercow added: “Apparently now they’re going to restart parliament. Get the Queen to do an early speech. This is comedy gold.”
  #443  
Old 03-19-2019, 05:47 AM
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Depends. At the very least, a general election is highly likely to take the DUP out of the frame, which would simplify matters. And if May can impose a manifesto on the party which includes "Brexit on the terms of May's deal", and get a majority in the election, there'd be a fair following wind for the ratification of the deal by Parliament.

That's the thing. So many MPs have put their colours to the mast and so firmly rubbished the deal for various reasons I don't think she'll be able to without mass resignations.

And if she were to resign as some way of resolving things, then whoever takes over would offend the other wing of the party so much.


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Old 03-19-2019, 06:16 AM
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I think a motion to submit May's deal to a referendum could be held without an intervening prorogation. A motion calling for a referndum is substantially different from a motion to ratify the deal.


Depends. At the very least, a general election is highly likely to take the DUP out of the frame, which would simplify matters. And if May can impose a manifesto on the party which includes "Brexit on the terms of May's deal", and get a majority in the election, there'd be a fair following wind for the ratification of the deal by Parliament.
I wouldn't bank on another general election producing any clearer an outcome, as between the two major parties, or as regards the possibility of a minority government deal with one of the minority parties. As for your second conditional, that would more likely split the Tories rather than give her or any new leader a stronger footing than the one she threw away last time.
  #445  
Old 03-19-2019, 09:49 AM
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It seems like May's government is having a major meltdown.

There was a cabinet meeting this morning. Cabinet sources have leaked that May 'read the riot act to to the cabinet about leaking'. However, the cabinet still continues to leak like a sieve. She has no authority, even among the people she personally appointed.

Leaked from various sources, posted on the Guardian:

Quote:
Theresa May set out two options, long and short extension. Did not set out preference.

One angry cabinet source: “It’s not up to us. It’s up to them, and who knows what conditions they’ll attach.”

Andrea Leadsom said to 'tear into' colleagues, saying 'this is now a Remain Cabinet, not a Brexit Cabinet' - and argued for leaving without a final deal at end of June.

“She [May] sat their like a nodding dog, not making a proper decision. She should be leading.”

Sources claiming that Theresa May didn't actually suggest any time period for a Brexit extension and just listened to the views of others around the Cabinet table... Leading from the front!

Fear lack of decision and general anger might push govt into another confidence vote situation next week and some Tories might be so angry they vote against govt or abstain - 'it's last days of Rome' says one insider.

Theresa May told Cabinet that Bercow's intervention had turned Brexit into 'Parliament versus the people'. Also warned that voters increasingly viewing Parliament as a 'laughing stock'

Cabinet source: 'The only thing agreed this morning was that everyone hates Bercow'

Cabinet sources say PM is writing letter to EU today asking for extension - frustration that she is going to ask for end date of June 30th, with proviso of up delay of up to 2 years.

Is this the most utterly useless government in UK history? How much longer can May hang on?

It seems likely the EU will grant an extension, and there will either be a referendum or a general election or both.
  #446  
Old 03-19-2019, 10:18 AM
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I’m surprised May is even bothering asking for a 30 day extension, if that bit is true. There are 10 days left before the scheduled deadline. Her latest strategy was to try and convince the hard-line Brexiters that her Withdrawal Act was the hardest Brexit they could get. And while that may have been starting to work for two or three dozen MP’s, it wasn’t going to get 75 no-voters to switch to yes. Now Bercow’s made it even harder to get a yes vote on the current Withdrawal Act. She might as well just cut her losses and just ask for a long-term extension. Then she can decide if she wants to lead a compromise effort, or if she’d rather just stand aside and let someone else have a go.
  #447  
Old 03-19-2019, 10:25 AM
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In case you were wondering what Jeremy Corbyn was doing last night, on one of the most dramatic days of the Brexit fiasco... he was giving a speech at the British Kebab Awards... even though he doesn't eat kebabs, as he is a vegetarian.

Nothing like having a sense of urgency as the clock runs down.

And no, this is NOT satire.
  #448  
Old 03-19-2019, 11:49 AM
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In case you were wondering what Jeremy Corbyn was doing last night, on one of the most dramatic days of the Brexit fiasco... he was giving a speech at the British Kebab Awards... even though he doesn't eat kebabs, as he is a vegetarian.

Nothing like having a sense of urgency as the clock runs down.

And no, this is NOT satire.
Given how painful this is to watch from the far side of the Atlantic, I can't imagine how it must feel to be in your position right now.
  #449  
Old 03-19-2019, 12:22 PM
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As always, the main reason Theresa May remains in power is the lack of a remotely palatable alternative from any party. Corbyn is less "Leader of the Opposition" and more "object lesson on why you should never say 'it can't get any worse'".
  #450  
Old 03-19-2019, 01:04 PM
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And, just so I am clear, the party leaders are elected by the MPs of that party, not by the voting public, correct? So, if you dislike a particular party leader, your only recourse is, if your own MP voted for them, voting out the MP?
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