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  #551  
Old 09-26-2019, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by GreenWyvern View Post
Steophan, are you really sure you're not a Johnson supporter? Is it possible you could be one without knowing it?  😁
I'm not, no. I used to like him, back in his days as Mayor of London, as he did a good job then, but what I want to see now is for Parliament to remove him, install iseally Harman or Clarke as a temporary leader, and get Brexit out of the way long enough to have an election. In which I will vote Lib Dem, unless there's an independent here who could win - which won't be Soubry as she's possibly the most hated person in this constituency at the moment.

Which is actually a shame, as I tend to agree with her politics, but she's completely destroyed any chance of being elected. Not that long ago, she would have been a mainstream Conservative, which shows how much politics has pulled away from the centre these days.

What I do think is that Corbyn is just as dishonest, power hungry, bad for the country, and determined to leave the EU as Johnson is, and all that making him PM would do is to delay things to no effect, and cause at least as much harm to the country in the long term. But, you know, I'd probably get a few more quid in benefits for a few years, so I will no doubt be told I should sell the rest of the country down the river and vote for a hard left nutjob.
  #552  
Old 09-26-2019, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by DCTrekkie View Post
It's been explained to you multiple times that the only reason Boris hasn't been voted out is that no-one trusts him not to break the law again and take us out with no deal. As soon as that danger has passed he will be gone.
As things currently stand, we are leaving the EU without a deal on October 31st, and Johnson is on record as saying that he will do whatever he can to achieve that. Not only do I not trust him to ask the EU for an extension, I am fairly sure he will not, and I'm also sure that he will claim that he's doing so legally, and maintain that claim in the courts for long enough that it becomes irrelevant. I want him gone, I want this country to remain in the EU, and I want parliament to prioritise that over trying to humiliate Johnson.

Quote:
It doesn't mean he has the confidence of parliament, as evidenced by his 7-0 record of lost votes, and as the Queen has been dealing with politicians longer than many of us have been alive, I think she'll be able to work that out.
Are you suggesting that the Queen should dissolve Parliament against its wishes, and install a new Government without any actual request? That wouls be truly extraordinary, and a terible solution to this situation.

Quote:
As for "representing the people of this country", you do acknowledge that the Remain camp is just as big as the Leave camp, and are entitled to the same level of representation? The Leave camp isn't even a majority of the population.
Exactly, which is why THEY NEED TO GET JOHNSON OUT AND STOP BREXIT INSTEAD OF FUCKING ABOUT. But they won't, because Corbyn is too fucking fixated on leaving the EU on his terms and humiliating Johnson than anything else.
  #553  
Old 09-26-2019, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Steophan View Post
As things currently stand, we are leaving the EU without a deal on October 31st, and Johnson is on record as saying that he will do whatever he can to achieve that. Not only do I not trust him to ask the EU for an extension, I am fairly sure he will not, and I'm also sure that he will claim that he's doing so legally, and maintain that claim in the courts for long enough that it becomes irrelevant.
Amazing! Nobody has thought of that possibility except you!

I'm sure all the expert lawyers and experienced parliamentarians, who went to so much trouble to draft and pass the Benn Act, have never even considered the possibility that Johnson may ignore it, and how to prevent a no-deal Brexit in that case.

Homework: Find out what measures are already being taken in this regard.
  #554  
Old 09-26-2019, 12:20 PM
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The EU has already taken the position that Parliament can ask to withdraw Article 50 directly, going around the PM. Isn't it just one more step to say they recognize that UK law requires a request for a delay, and simply grant it?
  #555  
Old 09-26-2019, 12:22 PM
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Amazing! Nobody has thought of that possibility except you!
Of course they've thought of it, the problem is Corbyn doesn't care because his priorities are leaving the EU and humiliating Johnson, possibly not in that order. About the only thing he's been consistent in throughout the last few years is wanting to leave. It amazes me how much the (justified) hatred of Johnson blinds people to the flaws of Corbyn.

Do you honestly think, at this point, that if Johnson is still PM by the 31st of next month we won't be leaving on that date?
  #556  
Old 09-26-2019, 12:26 PM
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The EU has already taken the position that Parliament can ask to withdraw Article 50 directly, going around the PM. Isn't it just one more step to say they recognize that UK law requires a request for a delay, and simply grant it?
The delay will not be automatically granted, and some European leaders (Macron) are against granting it at all, while most won't grant it without being given a good reason to. Another (x) months of bullshit will not be considered a good reason.

I doubt they would consider the request made even if it wasn't, but I hope that somehow what you suggest could happen, and that the extension would be granted.
  #557  
Old 09-26-2019, 12:41 PM
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From the Guardian, 10 minutes ago:

Quote:
Opposition parties to meet again on Monday to consider 'all parliamentary mechanisms to stop no deal'

The opposition parties are going to meet again on Monday to consider “all parliamentary mechanisms to stop a no-deal [Brexit]”, the Labour party has said. In a statement about this afternoon’s talks, Labour said the parties agreed that stopping a no-deal Brexit was a priority and that the language used by the PM was unacceptable.

The parties agreed that “any election without a lock preventing no deal would not get through parliament”. And Labour made it clear that “it wants an election as soon there’s a lock against no deal.”

The meeting was attended by Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Valerie Vaz and Shami Chakrabarti from Labour, Ian Blackford from the SNP, Jo Swinson from the Lib Dems, Anna Soubry from the Independent Group for Change, Caroline Lucas from the Green and Leanne Wood from Plaid Cymru.
... and there is currently a separate initiative going through the courts to preempt Johnson ignoring the Benn Act.

Last edited by GreenWyvern; 09-26-2019 at 12:44 PM.
  #558  
Old 09-26-2019, 12:50 PM
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Originally Posted by GreenWyvern View Post

Homework: Find out what measures are already being taken in this regard.
Bonus homework: have a gander at the nobile officium power of the Inner House of the Court of Session in Edinburgh, and check out what petitions have recently been lodged with the Court.

SPOILER:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e-50-extension

It's very much the last-chance nuclear option though, but it is being prepared for
  #559  
Old 09-26-2019, 01:09 PM
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Parliament wants Johnson as PM, because they feel that keeping him there will lead to him being humiliated, and that is more important to them than resolving Brexit, or representing the people of the country.
This makes me look like
  #560  
Old 09-26-2019, 01:12 PM
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What's important here is that we blame everyone else for what Johnson's doing.
  #561  
Old 09-26-2019, 01:19 PM
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What's important here is that we blame everyone else for what Johnson's doing.
No, I'm blaming Johnson for what he's doing. I'm blaming everyone else for they're doing, or more importantly not doing, which allows Johnson to get away with doing what he's doing.
  #562  
Old 09-26-2019, 06:26 PM
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Are you suggesting that the Queen should dissolve Parliament against its wishes, and install a new Government without any actual request? That wouls be truly extraordinary, and a terible solution to this situation.
My suggestion is the Queen fire UKTrump and appoint someone that can bring an end to the Brexit debacle - even if that means appointing a PM willing to have anothr referandum.
  #563  
Old 09-26-2019, 06:58 PM
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My suggestion is the Queen fire UKTrump and appoint someone that can bring an end to the Brexit debacle - even if that means appointing a PM willing to have anothr referandum.
So, you are suggesting that she ignore Parliament. That couldn't possibly backfire...
  #564  
Old 09-26-2019, 08:25 PM
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No, I'm blaming Johnson for what he's doing. I'm blaming everyone else for they're doing, or more importantly not doing, which allows Johnson to get away with doing what he's doing.
What exactly is Johnson 'doing'?

So far he's lost his majority in Parliament (by sacking his own MPs and having members of his own party walk out), lost a string of votes in Parliament and had his only actual 'action' stated as illegal and reversed by the courts.

He has made no progress in negotiations with the EU and been exposed yet again as a liar.
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  #565  
Old 09-26-2019, 08:31 PM
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Boris Johnson is only the answer if the question is "Who is the worst Prime Minister ever?"


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My suggestion is the Queen fire UKTrump and appoint someone that can bring an end to the Brexit debacle - even if that means appointing a PM willing to have anothr referandum.
This is not an action that the Queen would ever consider, let alone actually do.

The debacle will eventually be resolved by one or more of these:

- an EU deal being passed by Parliament
- a general election
- a second referendum (with better options )
- a vote to rescind Article 50
  #566  
Old 09-26-2019, 09:03 PM
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The latest speculation is that Boris will try to suspend the Act that was recently passed that would prevent a No-Deal Brexit, and therefore the UK would exit the EU in October without a deal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Former Conservative PM John Major

My fear is that the Government will seek to bypass Statute Law, by passing an Order of Council to suspend the Act until after 31 October.

It is important to note that an Order of Council can be passed by Privy Councillors - that is Government Ministers - without involving HM The Queen.
The opposition may therefore try to topple Boris before the 31 October date to prevent this from happening, but they can't agree on who should be the interim Prime Minister before a new general election is held.
  #567  
Old 09-26-2019, 09:36 PM
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This is not an action that the Queen would ever consider, let alone actually do.

The debacle will eventually be resolved by one or more of these:

- an EU deal being passed by Parliament
- a general election
- a second referendum (with better options )
- a vote to rescind Article 50
A general election is not a resolution to the debacle.

At most, it might open the way to the UK making a clear choice for one of the options which are resolutions. But there's a sporting chance that it might not even do that.

Similarly, a second referendum isn't a resolution. It's just a mechanism for choosing a resolution.

There are only three possible resolutions:

- Revoke the UK's notice to leave the EU, and remain a member.
- Leave the EU on the terms of a withdrawal agreement (which, realistically, is going to be the withdrawal agreement the UK has already negotiated, or something very, very similar to it).
- Leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement.

A general election or a second referendum represents progress only if it's a mechanism by which the UK chooses one of these three options.
  #568  
Old 09-26-2019, 10:58 PM
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- Leave the EU on the terms of a withdrawal agreement (which, realistically, is going to be the withdrawal agreement the UK has already negotiated, or something very, very similar to it).
Actually there are two fundamental alternatives regarding the withdrawal agreement--backstop covering the whole UK or backstop limited to Northern Ireland.
  #569  
Old 09-26-2019, 11:51 PM
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Actually there are two fundamental alternatives regarding the withdrawal agreement--backstop covering the whole UK or backstop limited to Northern Ireland.
Yeah. Both of those have been negotiated with the EU - first the NI-only backstop and then, at the UK's request, the UK-wide one, which is the version the UK government signed off on. Either version would probably still be available. I consider both of them to be embraced in the concept of "the withdrawal agreement the UK has already negotiated, or something very, very similar to it".

I'm not sure that I'd regard the differnce between them as representing "two fundamental alternatives". The backstop is, after all, just one aspect of the agreement, and it's a transitional aspect; whichever version of the backstop is included will operate only until a long-term treaty is put in place, governing the relationship between the UK and the EU, whose terms are effecive to avoid a hard border.
  #570  
Old 09-27-2019, 04:45 AM
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A general election is not a resolution to the debacle.

At most, it might open the way to the UK making a clear choice for one of the options which are resolutions. But there's a sporting chance that it might not even do that.

Similarly, a second referendum isn't a resolution. It's just a mechanism for choosing a resolution.

There are only three possible resolutions:

- Revoke the UK's notice to leave the EU, and remain a member.
- Leave the EU on the terms of a withdrawal agreement (which, realistically, is going to be the withdrawal agreement the UK has already negotiated, or something very, very similar to it).
- Leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement.

A general election or a second referendum represents progress only if it's a mechanism by which the UK chooses one of these three options.
Fair point.
I should have said that the options I gave were to make progress towards a resolution.
  #571  
Old 09-27-2019, 06:30 AM
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The backstop is, after all, just one aspect of the agreement, and it's a transitional aspect; whichever version of the backstop is included will operate only until a long-term treaty is put in place, governing the relationship between the UK and the EU, whose terms are effecive to avoid a hard border.
Or in other words, the issues will be fundamentally the same then: even if a transitional withdrawal deal gets through parliament, we shall still have to face the border problem, the standards/checks problem and the legal venue problem.
  #572  
Old 09-27-2019, 08:08 AM
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What's important here is that we blame everyone else for what Johnson's doing.
The public had a chance to vote for a remain party in 2017 if that was what they wanted, and parliament themselves have had numerous chances and two years since then to either agree to a deal or to say exactly what they do want. All that has come to light in that time is what they don't want, not a single coherent idea that the whole of parliament can get behind. Seeing as what they don't want is the default position and has been since the triggering of article 50, that is not in their hands to rule-out and I don't agree that this is all Boris's fault, we are certainly not in this position in the first place because of him. He is playing games amongst the confusion and trying to pull a fast one but the confusion is not of his creation.

The whole of parliament is responsible for the current situation and Corbyn only cares about getting his hands on power. If a no deal Brexit is the price for that he'll be happy to pay it. Had he called for a NCV a few weeks ago a pledged to put a more neutral and less incompetent and more trusted figure into the temporary PM position then we would not be here. He couldn't bring himself to do it. He is weak and self-serving and it shows. Had he taken that course of action he'd have shot-up in the estimation of many people. What a grown-up and statesman-like thing to do, sacrificing ambition for the good of the country, imagine if he'd approached Ken Clarke? a Tory for crying out loud. But he did none of that and I think the only reason for doing so is that he did not want that to work. Draw your own conclusions why.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see May's deal, or a close version thereof, reintroduced at the 11th hour.
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  #573  
Old 09-27-2019, 12:09 PM
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The latest speculation is that Boris will try to suspend the Act that was recently passed that would prevent a No-Deal Brexit....
Incipient tyranny must be confronted and opposed whenever and wherever it arises.
  #574  
Old 09-27-2019, 12:20 PM
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Opponents said Johnson’s language could incite violence. But he said the country’s social tensions were being caused by Britain’s failure to leave the EU more than three years after voting in a referendum to do so.

“Once you do that, then so much of the heat and the anxiety will come out of the debate,” Johnson said Friday as he visited a hospital — part of unofficial campaigning for an election that looks set to come soon. “Get it done and then we will all be able to move on.”
Quote:
Johnson’s divisive senior adviser Dominic Cummings also dismissed concerns that politicians’ heated rhetoric was polarizing society, and said the government’s plan to deliver Brexit on Oct. 31, come what may, would succeed.

“We are enjoying this,” said Cummings. “We are going to leave and we are going to win.”
https://apnews.com/ada164c224bb433a87f846d4f5e59412

The plan is to do nothing and leave without a deal. Anything else said is a lie.
  #575  
Old 09-27-2019, 01:13 PM
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Great article by Marina Hyde about

Dominic Cummings and people vs. parliament

Quote:
Third, as is blindingly obvious to everyone else, Cummings is one of those masterminds who hates his henchmen. He hates the Conservative party. He believes he’s surrounded by idiots. Again: that’s you, babe.

What’s amazing, given he’s written all of this stuff down, and at length, is the selective deafness of the Tories going along with it. They hear the stuff Dom is saying about things being swept away. But they don’t hear the bits that will eventually mean them.

Consider the irony of the European Research Group currently obeying a man who described them as a “narcissist-delusional subset”, adding: “You should be treated like a metastasising tumour and excised from the UK body politic.” It’s not a hugely opaque statement.

Last edited by GreenWyvern; 09-27-2019 at 01:14 PM.
  #576  
Old 09-27-2019, 06:47 PM
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Also, he was a better mayor of London than his predecessor or successor - although Ken did much better than expected.
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Originally Posted by glee View Post
Boris' failed plan to build a bridge covered with trees and flowers over the River Thames in central London cost a total of £53m.
That's one good example. London doesn't need more bridges in that area, and a "garden bridge" is impossible at that elevation over a river (they kept comparing it to the Highline in NYC, as if the local environment is irrelevant), and it was intended to be closed to the public and chargeable for large periods of time, hired out to private companies. It was a terrible idea.

And that was just one terrible idea. His main successes were the Barclays Bikes, started by his predecessor, and the Olympics, started by his predecessor. I do give him credit for expanding cycle lane provision. I'd ask Steophan (who does n't live in London) what he thinks Boris actually did well, but going on his responses to how well Boris is doing right now he's probably claim even the garden bridge as a success.
  #577  
Old 09-27-2019, 07:21 PM
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The public had a chance to vote for a remain party in 2017 if that was what they wanted
The public were told by Boris Johnson that unless we voted Leave 70 million Turks would be able to come over here (swamping a country of 60 million) and that the Leave campaign would put £350,000,000 per week into the (massively popular) National Health Service.
Despite these incredible lies, 48% voted to Remain.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Novelty Bobble View Post
and parliament themselves have had numerous chances and two years since then to either agree to a deal or to say exactly what they do want.
It was down to the Leave campaign to explain what was on offer, not for Remain to work out what the Leavers intended. (Of course the only thing the Leavers wanted was a no-deal Brexit.)

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I don't agree that this is all Boris's fault, we are certainly not in this position in the first place because of him. He is playing games amongst the confusion and trying to pull a fast one but the confusion is not of his creation.
It certainly is Boris' fault (you could argue that Dominic Cummings shares the blame.)
Boris has no clue what to do about the Irish backstop - even after 3 years.

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Corbyn only cares about getting his hands on power. If a no deal Brexit is the price for that he'll be happy to pay it.
Of course you mean Boris, not Corbyn!
Boris wanted power at any cost. He's prepared to have a ruinous 'no deal' Brexit, sack over 20 members of his own party, break the law and lie - just to become Prime Minister.
He has no idea how to negotiate, how to organise, how to delegate and how to be truthful.
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  #578  
Old 09-28-2019, 12:32 AM
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Originally Posted by GreenWyvern View Post
Great article by Marina Hyde about

Dominic Cummings and people vs. parliament

"...Consider the irony of the European Research Group currently obeying a man who described them as a “narcissist-delusional subset”, adding: “You should be treated like a metastasising tumour and excised from the UK body politic...."
I wonder what he really means?
  #579  
Old 09-28-2019, 01:29 AM
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The public were told by Boris Johnson that unless we voted Leave 70 million Turks would be able to come over here (swamping a country of 60 million)
A pretty good trick considering the entire population of Turkey in 2017 was less than 80 million. Hell, even Iraq has lost less than one-sixth of its population to refugee and diaspora status due to catastrophic invasion and civil war, nowhere near seven-eighths.
  #580  
Old 09-28-2019, 02:19 AM
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Well the public’s fears were justified. Look at just what one Turkish immigrant spawned.
  #581  
Old 09-28-2019, 08:22 AM
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A pretty good trick considering the entire population of Turkey in 2017 was less than 80 million. Hell, even Iraq has lost less than one-sixth of its population to refugee and diaspora status due to catastrophic invasion and civil war, nowhere near seven-eighths.
You have made the understandable mistake of thinking the Leave campaign was honest, reasonable, calm and well thought out.
In fact it was simply lies, propaganda, hysteria and clueless.

I admit Boris didn't threaten 70 million Turks - actually it was 80 million!
campaign material put out by Vote Leave ahead of the 2016 referendum which “suggested 80 million Turks would come to this country if we stayed in the EU
  #582  
Old 09-28-2019, 09:10 AM
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The public were told by Boris Johnson that unless we voted Leave 70 million Turks would be able to come over here (swamping a country of 60 million) and that the Leave campaign would put £350,000,000 per week into the (massively popular) National Health Service.
Despite these incredible lies, 48% voted to Remain.
OK, so having had that pointed out to them, the country still voted overwhelmingly for parties that stood by the referendum result, both Labour and Tory.

Quote:
It was down to the Leave campaign to explain what was on offer, not for Remain to work out what the Leavers intended. (Of course the only thing the Leavers wanted was a no-deal Brexit.)
That would be the deal that was offered to Parliament three times then? Followed up by the multiple indicative votes on which no clear majority could agree. That was all some time ago now.

Quote:
It certainly is Boris' fault (you could argue that Dominic Cummings shares the blame.)
Boris has no clue what to do about the Irish backstop - even after 3 years.
It isn't Boris's fault that Parliament has not decided on a coherent course of action. Boris owns his own incompetence, Parliament as a whole owns their inaction and political, factional, in-fighting.

Quote:
Of course you mean Boris, not Corbyn!
Why is it not both?
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Last edited by Novelty Bobble; 09-28-2019 at 09:11 AM.
  #583  
Old 09-28-2019, 11:16 AM
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(re: BoJo & Corbyn)
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Why is it not both?
Because if Corbyn were actually interested in power, he would have taken even one of the many opportunities he's had in the last three weeks (or even the last three years) to demonstrate that with actions.
  #584  
Old 09-28-2019, 11:33 AM
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Peston:
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There is probably now just a week or so from end of Tory conference for Johnson to make breakthrough on Brexit deal or for talks to end. Why? Well government sources tell me EU Commission has been told by British negotiators in no uncertain terms that Johnson will not quit...

to avoid being forced by Benn Act to ask for Brexit delay. And Brussels was also told that if Johnson is still PM on 19 October, he will find a way to get round law and refuse to ask for a delay. So Barnier and Juncker have literally no time to decide if Johnson is bluffing...

and if there is scope for backstop compromise. Labour, SNP, LibDems and rest of opposition also face an imminent deadline to decide whether Johnson bluffing and whether now the only surefire way to avoid no-deal Brexit is to attempt to remove him with Vote of no confidence...

well before EU summit on 17 Oct. As you know, senior opposition MPs have told me they are geared up for a vote to oust Johnson. The titanic struggle over whether Johnson can or will deliver Brexit on 31 October and whether he can survive as PM looks set to reach its climax...

by end of next week.
  #585  
Old 09-28-2019, 11:41 AM
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The latest speculation is that Boris will try to suspend the Act that was recently passed that would prevent a No-Deal Brexit, and therefore the UK would exit the EU in October without a deal.
With the way that Britain and America have been going "hold my beer" every time one of them outdoes the other in craziness this year, this is about the only way Johnson could trump Trump considering Ukraine, so of course I expect him to try it.
  #586  
Old 09-28-2019, 11:47 AM
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(re: BoJo & Corbyn) Because if Corbyn were actually interested in power, he would have taken even one of the many opportunities he's had in the last three weeks (or even the last three years) to demonstrate that with actions.
If he weren't mostly interested in power, he would be standing behing a multi-party attepmt to create a Unity Government under a relatively neutral PM. By your argument, Johnson can't be only interested in power because he didn't go for the leadership when Cameron quit.
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Old 09-28-2019, 01:42 PM
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The latest speculation is that Boris will try to suspend the Act that was recently passed that would prevent a No-Deal Brexit, and therefore the UK would exit the EU in October without a deal.
Timing may make the matter otiose given the 31 October deadline, but given what the Supreme Court said about using Orders in Council to avoid parliamentary scrutiny, using them actually to disregard an explicit instruction in law is likely to lead to an equally damning judgement, and put us in real "constitutional crisis" territory. Shades of 1910-11 at the very least.
  #588  
Old 09-28-2019, 01:49 PM
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(re: BoJo & Corbyn) Because if Corbyn were actually interested in power, he would have taken even one of the many opportunities he's had in the last three weeks (or even the last three years) to demonstrate that with actions.
That doesn't make sense. A unity government after a vote of no confidence was pretty much a slam dunk. The only thing standing in the way was Corbyn insisting that he head it.
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Last edited by Novelty Bobble; 09-28-2019 at 01:49 PM.
  #589  
Old 09-28-2019, 01:49 PM
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Timing may make the matter otiose given the 31 October deadline, but given what the Supreme Court said about using Orders in Council to avoid parliamentary scrutiny, using them actually to disregard an explicit instruction in law is likely to lead to an equally damning judgement, and put us in real "constitutional crisis" territory. Shades of 1910-11 at the very least.
So, better than even odds that this is what will happen, then?

Also, thanks for teaching me "otiose".
  #590  
Old 09-28-2019, 01:52 PM
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Well, obviously they'd have a lot of Islamist-terrorist babies on the way.

CNN speculates that BoJo could be out as PM within days: https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/28/uk/bo...gbr/index.html
  #591  
Old 09-28-2019, 02:10 PM
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Now we're getting somewhere!

This is an issue I've written about before, and the real essence of the whole Brexit project.

Calls for inquiry into claims Johnson backers benefit from no-deal Brexit

Quote:
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has written to the cabinet secretary, Sir Mark Sedwill, asking if there may be a conflict of interest in Johnson’s acceptance of support from hedge funds that could gain from an economic shock.

Earlier on Saturday, Philip Hammond, the former chancellor, suggested Johnson was pursuing the interests of financial backers set to gain from a no-deal Brexit, in a major escalation of tensions in the prime minister’s own party.

Hammond said he was repeating a comment made last week by Rachel Johnson, the prime minister’s sister. ...

“Johnson is backed by speculators who have bet billions on a hard Brexit – and there is only one option that works for them: a crash-out no-deal that sends the currency tumbling and inflation soaring,” Hammond wrote in the Times.

Downing Street has refused to comment on the claim.

Guto Bebb, a former Tory minister who was thrown out of the party for opposing a no-deal Brexit, said: “The dubious financiers who supported the ‘leave’ campaign and the prime minister’s leadership campaign are betting against Britain. The PM should put the interests of the country first rather than facilitating a financial bonanza for a few.”
  #592  
Old 09-28-2019, 04:14 PM
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I'm very curious to see how this new inquiry goes, both factually and in the public's perception.
  #593  
Old 09-28-2019, 05:35 PM
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Well the public’s fears were justified. Look at just what one Turkish immigrant spawned.
I feel there's probably some joke about a British public figure in there that I'm insufficiently well-educated to pick up on.

Clue?
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Old 09-28-2019, 05:47 PM
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I feel there's probably some joke about a British public figure in there that I'm insufficiently well-educated to pick up on.

Clue?
Johnson's great-grandfather was Turkish. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Kemal
  #595  
Old 09-28-2019, 05:50 PM
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I feel there's probably some joke about a British public figure in there that I'm insufficiently well-educated to pick up on.

Clue?
Boris Johnson's paternal grandfather was Turkish.
  #596  
Old 09-29-2019, 02:32 AM
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So, better than even odds that this is what will happen, then?
Who knows? Whether Johnson would be consciously planning on letting the country exit without a deal with such a case before the court (if someone were willing to take the case to them), with the idea of fighting the election on a platform of "people versus Parliament AND the Supreme Court" - well, Cummings probably would.
  #597  
Old 09-30-2019, 05:40 AM
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That doesn't make sense. A unity government after a vote of no confidence was pretty much a slam dunk. The only thing standing in the way was Corbyn insisting that he head it.
(Apologies for another long post. I don't think we can easily discuss this by soundbite.)

No. This is superficially plausible, but it's just a line peddled by centre right remainers who want Brexit cancelled but to retain power for the centre right afterwards. Which is an understandable objective on their part, but unfeasible given Brexit's foundations on the right.

We know that a unity government wasn't a slam dunk because... it didn't happen. A majority of MPs were not willing to stand behind a neutral figure and demand a unity government against Corbyn's personal opposition. There are procedural issues, but if there had been the will these would have been (fairly easily) overcome, and we would have a national government now. There is a weasily argument that if only Corbyn had supported an alternative leader, everything would have been fine. That way, we can blame Crobyn for opposing this wonderful hypothetical government, or if he had supported it we could then blame him for being the power behind the scenes afterwards, and the cause of all the inevitable problems.

What we don't have is any coherent platform for what this wonderful unity government would actually have done in power. We know it wouldn't have been a short term technical government which called a referendum and then a general election, because... that didn't happen. If it had been this easy, then Corbyn couldn't have stopped it. While his personal opposition was part of the reason it didn't happen, there are many other reasons, and Corbyn's opposition can most simply be explained by his foresight that a unity government would not have worked at that time.

Moving on to wider topics. This fundamental underlying reality of everyone advocating Brexit doing all they can to avoid taking responsibility for it, and blaming everyone else for the problems Brexit causes, actually explains most of the dynamic and timing of events. The gaps can be explained by the (inexplicable to me) continuing mass public support for Brexit (still almost half the public) and procedural realities. I'm actually still quite optimistic we can successfully get through this. And by successfully I mean remain in the EU while pretending none of this nightmare actually happened.

Labour have to continue to offer the possibility of a unicorns-for-all Brexit because so many people so desperately want that. Going full remain would allow the Tories to scream betrayal, push through Brexit, and still blame Labour for the subsequent chaos.

Labour have to deny a general election right now, because a general election would allow the Tories to scream betrayal, lament the sabotage of the brilliant deal that they were just about to secure from the EU, push through Brexit, and still blame Labour for the subsequent chaos.

Labour can't form a government of national unity because there really isn't the support for it in Parliament today, see above. Remainer Tories and Lib Dems scream betrayal, accuse Labour of enabling Brexit, and blame Corbyn for everything. (And still Corbyn won't take a leap of faith and commit irrevocably to a policy which relies on these people's continuing enthusiastic support. The man is a complete bounder!)

But be calm. The only thing which will allow progress is the absolute conviction that the time has completely run out and that everyone is on their final chance. That time is not now, and you have perhaps as many as twenty more days of this idiocy, though Johnson could melt down before then.

Johnson will have his chance to secure his brilliant renegotiation with the EU. I don't think he will, but I do know he will blame others if he is denied the opportunity. And if he does come back with something which every current and former Tory and DUP MP supports then he will get it through Parliament and enjoy a triumphant victory. (Note, it is Labour's responsibility to oppose any deal which does not guarantee their clear manifesto commitment to a Brexit which gives us all of the advantages of EU membership, and more, and few of the obligations. They were and are right to oppose Mrs May's withdrawal agreement for example, which clearly contradicts their manifesto commitment.)

If Johnson instead pivots to officially or implicitly seeking a hard no-deal exit (which to be fair he has resolutely opposed so far, it is a million-to-one chance which could only arise if the EU acts in unimaginably bad faith, etc.) then no doubt all of the Lib Dems and former Tory MPs will support Corbyn to push through a national government. With their unconditional support this will take about 24 hours. (The other parties are assumed to be on board already.)

Will the Lib Dems and Tory MPs support a Corbyn government at the last moment? They say a no-deal exit is the worst possible outcome. Corbyn is offering an extension to the article 50 period to January (or so?), and a general election in which Labour will unequivocally commit to a prompt referendum with Remain as an option. All of that can be delivered in the last week of October, and can't be delivered much before then. What's not to like?

What's not to like is apparently that it means that we only get to remain if we have a Labour government. Even worse, if we do leave then it will be on terms negotiated by a Labour government. The remainers on the centre right and centre criticising Corbyn for his naked pursuit of his own political interests at the expense of the national interest are adamant that the national interest is best served by remaining in the EU with a centre right government, or at worst leaving the EU on terms negotiated by a centre right government. Their selfless pursuit of the public good is an admirable example to us all, but it falls down on the simple reality that given the state of public opinion and the current situation of the Conservative Party, there is no path to a centre right government in the EU, and probably no path to a centre right government with even a managed exit from the EU.

Without a Labour led government, Britain will crash out of the EU in the worst possible way, condemning the country to decades of division, economic chaos and civil strife. Centrist remainers won't acknowledge this until the last possible moment, and possibly not even then, and I say that as a committed centrist remainer myself. In the meantime, many of us will play the both-sides-do-it-too game, and blame Jeremy Corbyn for a clusterfuck which was conceived, implemented, and driven solely by right wing Tories.

(Obviously, this is just, like, my opinion.)
  #598  
Old 09-30-2019, 06:27 AM
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(Obviously, this is just, like, my opinion.)
Yup, I do, like, your opinion.

The best up-to-date analysis I've seen.
Please review and renew it whenever you can. Thanks.
  #599  
Old 09-30-2019, 06:37 AM
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The point is that, had Corbyn supported a neutral unity government, it would have happened. He chose, and continues to choose, not to. And it's clear why - it's because he wants to leave the EU, and he wants power, and he doesn't care what happens to the majority of the country as long as he achieves that.

Hopefully we will see a no-confidence vote this week, the SNP are pushing for one, and then Labour will have to choose whether or not they have confidence in Johnson as PM. Most likely they will be whipped to abstain, and Parliament will formally show confidence in Johnson, but there's always a chance enough MPs will rebel and he will be gone.
  #600  
Old 09-30-2019, 07:32 AM
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I must admit to a secret wish that Brexit gets stopped at the last minute because it will royally fuck all those wealthy people hedging against economic chaos, and JRM in particular.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steophan View Post
The point is that, had Corbyn supported a neutral unity government, it would have happened. He chose, and continues to choose, not to. And it's clear why - it's because he wants to leave the EU, and he wants power, and he doesn't care what happens to the majority of the country as long as he achieves that.
The point is that Sandwich just patiently and in detail explained why this isn't so.
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