One might think that jumping into a campaign at the last minute would be a disadvantage. However, it’s also an advantage, because the late-term entrant starts unscathed by negativ campaigning.
Mel Carnahan was slightly trailing Ashcroft, but (effectively) Jean Carnanhan beat him easily. And, as we’re now seeing, she’s a weak campaigner. But, two years ago, she entered the race so late and under such smpathetic circumstances that she won without really having to do much.
Frank Lautenberg would be a weak candidate if he had run from the beginning. He had some difficulty winning his prior election. Having been out of politics and being 78 years old would have hurt him. However, by coming in late, he has an excuse to avoid real debates. Polls show him with a good-sized lead, although he has done little campaigning.
We’ll see what happens in Minnesota. Presumably Wellstone was the Recent polls showed Wellstone with a tiny lead. I predict that the Democratic replacement will win comfortably, because there will be no time to attack him.
It didn’t help Rick Lazio who took over for Rudy Giuliani when he dropped out of the NY Senatorial race due to prostate cancer. It’s almost a certainty that Giuliani would have made a much tigher race of it.
I wish I’d asked Bob Mulholland about this; he’s a campaign strategist for Gov. Davis in California, and was here at school answering questions yesterday.
Has a Democratic replacement been selected yet? The relationship that replacement has to Wellstone might be significant; I can imagine voters sympathizing with the bereavement of Mrs. Carnahan and seeing her carrying on the race as something noble. Someone who wasn’t closely associated with Wellstone might not be able to cultivate the same image of nobility. He or she would suffer from the disadvatange of not having established a relationship with the public, and voters might see her or him as a hasty replacement and go instead with someone whose name they recognize.
The replacement candidate in the case of the death of the prior candidate does benefit from the lack of negative campaigning. The opponent is handcuffed in that he now looks like a jerk for attacking the guy that just died and he can’t very well lay into the new candidate. The public’s perception of the recently departed tends to become more favorable as the glowing eulogies come in and that tends to rub off on the successor.
Ashcroft did not lose to Mrs. Carnahan, Mel’s name was on the ballot. So the people of Missouri had a choice of being represented by John Ashcroft and a corpse. They chose the corpse.
As a Minnesotan, I believe a lot will depend on who the DFL chooses to put on the ballot. Coleman is pretty well liked (not by me, I thimk he’s smarmy). And the DFL has been woefully out of touch (see Skip Humphrey). If the DFL chooses someone who is party faithful, known outside the party, but not well liked by the population as a whole, Coleman will win.
If they pick an unknown, I won’t wager a guess.
If they pick someone well liked by Minnesotans, the race should be much easier.
I’m laying odds that the DFL will pick someone completely unelectable. I woke up last night in a cold sweat after dreaming they’d tagged Sharon Sayles Belton.
I agree, december; it’s pretty suspicious that Carnahan and Wellstone have just conveniently happened to die late into the campaign season, allowing their replacements to escape the glare of opponents’ attack ads. The way the Democrats make out in this tragedy, it’s almost as if they wanted it to happen. Maybe even. . .made it happen. :eek:
Who’ll be the next to go in the glorious name of the party? Who, God, who??
I think December meant that the remaining candidate has suffered an entire election season of trashing (a typical weapon of most political candidates), which remains in the public mind, but the replacement candidate will be relatively unscathed.
A reasoned response should be preferred on this board to personal attacks.
FWIW, it appears the DFL replacement will be Fritz Mondale.
Not a bad choice for them - lots of name recognition, experience, and not much public statements of actual positions on issues to break the voters’ mood of sympathy for Wellstone.
Would people want to vote for someone who didn’t want the job?
Saturday evening the pundits were tossing about who will replace Wellstone…
Mondale was the comfortable “favorite”, if anything for name recognition and the supposed oatmeal like warmth he projects.
I would like to see Alan Page up there.
But it would be too “iffy” to put a black jurist on the ballot–
And Coleman would win gag
I think Page would win. Minnesotans aren’t racist enough to not vote for him simply because he is black. He commands a lot of respect as a jurist, and more respect as a Hall of Fame football player. There are a lot of Senators with worse resumes.
But according to a friend of mine who knows him, Page doesn’t have the stomach for Senate level politics. He doesn’t enjoy fundraising, and doesn’t like to compromise.
I agree with the OP. Not just the negative campaigning aspect (and this includes research and attacks on positions - not just personal attacks) but the symphathy factor. See also: Minn. GOP Sen. Hopeful Faces Unknown