Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 06-08-2006, 05:40 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 37,349
Zarqawi Killed - Will It Make A Difference?

WaPo story

To answer my own question, No. If killing Uday and Qusay, and capturing Saddam, both only proved to be bumps in the road to chaos, why should this be any different?

The main thing going on right now in Iraq is Sunnis and Shi'ites killing each other by the dozens. Zarqawi's death isn't going to make Sunni and Shia all lovey-dovey. There's a low-to-mid-level civil war going on that had nothing to do with Zarqawi, and unfortunately it's just as likely to keep on gathering steam without him as with him.

IMHO, his role has long been magnified by all parties in the war. The US' motivation has been to identify Iraq as part of the GWoT. The Shi'ites in the government want to (a) go along with their American patrons, and (b) not be overtly anti-Sunni, because we wouldn't like that. And the Sunnis want someone to point to and say, "Hey, it isn't us that's doing this."

The one bleak hope I have is that, once the removal of the Zarqawi red herring has proved to make no difference, his absence might force the warring parties to acknowledge the true nature of the Iraq conflict, and address it head on. It's not the way to bet, but at least it's a hope.
  #2  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:09 AM
Rune Rune is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
Posts: 4,731
Of course it'll make a difference, just as the capture of Saddam and the death of his spawn made a difference. But if you're measuring all progress by, whether it'll make Iraq a place lions graze alongside sheep and love and free sex is practised in parks of central Bagdad, then of course no matter what happens you'll always be able to declare it a failure.
  #3  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:10 AM
Der Trihs's Avatar
Der Trihs Der Trihs is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: California
Posts: 38,635
Nope. The violence and so forth is due to the conditions in Iraq and the way the various factions think/feel/believe, not due to some cackling terrorist mastermind.
  #4  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:11 AM
Der Trihs's Avatar
Der Trihs Der Trihs is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: California
Posts: 38,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rune
Of course it'll make a difference, just as the capture of Saddam and the death of his spawn made a difference.
Yes, it made things worse.
  #5  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:19 AM
Rune Rune is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
Posts: 4,731
Quote:
Originally Posted by Der Trihs
Yes, it made things worse.
Yes absolutely, Iraq, and especially the victims of their many crimes, would have been such a better with Saddam Hussein and his two devil spawn running around stirring up trouble, just like the world benefits immensely with having Osama bin Laden sitting in his cave sending out weekly bullentins.

...duh!
  #6  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:22 AM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Home 07 NCAA HockeyChamps
Posts: 20,712
It will make about as much difference as the 473 times the US has captured the #2 man in al Qaeda. Getting bin Laden himself would not make appreciable difference. One leader falls, another takes his place. Would the US have given up in WW II if Eisenhower had been killed? Of course not. Guys like Zarqawu and bin Laden were created by terrorism, not the other way around.
  #7  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:28 AM
Der Trihs's Avatar
Der Trihs Der Trihs is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: California
Posts: 38,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rune
Yes absolutely, Iraq, and especially the victims of their many crimes, would have been such a better with Saddam Hussein and his two devil spawn running around stirring up trouble,
If you gave the Iraqi's a choice, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they considered life under Saddam better.
  #8  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:34 AM
Rune Rune is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
Posts: 4,731
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem
It will make about as much difference as the 473 times the US has captured the #2 man in al Qaeda. Getting bin Laden himself would not make appreciable difference. One leader falls, another takes his place. Would the US have given up in WW II if Eisenhower had been killed? Of course not. Guys like Zarqawu and bin Laden were created by terrorism, not the other way around.
You also seem to equate “a difference” with “total victory”. No the US wouldn't have given up if Eisenhower had been killed. But presumable it would have had some negative consequences for the immediate war effort, some negative consequences for the morale of US troops and the US population, some boost for the morale of enemy troops and nations. etc. As can be expected with the death of Zarqawi.
  #9  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:40 AM
Der Trihs's Avatar
Der Trihs Der Trihs is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: California
Posts: 38,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rune
As can be expected with the death of Zarqawi.
Why ? He'll just be another martyr; if anything his death will spur his collegues on. Why lose heart when you are winning ?
  #10  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:48 AM
Happy Clam Happy Clam is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: London, Britain
Posts: 1,021
What I want to know is, who gets the X million dollars I saw advertised for his head?
  #11  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:49 AM
Jonathan Chance Jonathan Chance is online now
Domo Arigato Mister Moderato
Moderator
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: On the run with Kilroy
Posts: 21,913
Well, I can't exactly say that killing Zarqawi and his aids is a BAD thing. He declared himself and enemy of the United States in a war zone. There's generally few less-safe things to do than that.

But as for the effect this will have? Well, I know GD tends to be about choosing sides and swinging let me ring forth with: I dunno. And I doubt anyone else does as well.

We don't know to what extent he was personally managing operations in Iraq and what sort of independence his subordinates had. We also don't know who's going to step up to the plate. AND we're uncertain who these 'seven aides' were who were killed along with him.

So is it a net plus? Sure. Will it slow things down? Who knows?
  #12  
Old 06-08-2006, 06:51 AM
Der Trihs's Avatar
Der Trihs Der Trihs is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: California
Posts: 38,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Clam
What I want to know is, who gets the X million dollars I saw advertised for his head?
It was the military that did it, so the answer is "nobody". Either that, or Haliburton.
  #13  
Old 06-08-2006, 07:30 AM
Menocchio Menocchio is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: 15th Century Italy
Posts: 4,366
The thing about terrorist insurgency cells is that they're a lot less dependent on a centralized command structure than conventional forces. The cells are already more or less independent (and some of them had nothing to do with Zarqawi whatsoever, in fact some probably hated the guy more than we did), so this won't have an effect on them logistically. Terrorist leaders are to an extent only figureheads and cheerleaders.

The Eisenhower analogy is flawed. The Allied war effort was much more connected to and dependent on Eisenhower than the insurgency was to Zarqawi. A closer paraell would be if they took out Bob Hope and John Wayne. Yeah, it'd be a bit demoralizing, but not inherently damaging to the war effort itself.

I'm a lot less interested in if they killed Zarqawi than how many weapons and explosives they took with him.

You can't fight a terrorism by decapitation strikes. They're too decentralized. You have to kill all the terrorist while removing the conditions that inspire people to become terrorists. We're botching the second point badly.
  #14  
Old 06-08-2006, 07:43 AM
Harborwolf Harborwolf is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Location: Home of the Stanley Cup
Posts: 5,992
Quote:
Originally Posted by Der Trihs
It was the military that did it, so the answer is "nobody". Either that, or Haliburton.
IIRC, someone tipped off the military. Likely they'll get the money if anyone does.

As for this making a difference? Sure. War's over. Mission accomplished. Cue the banner and aircraft carrier. Get the president his sock.

Sorry about that. Too much watching of the news. Makes me a bit cranky.

This isn't going to change a whole lot. I'd think there may be an upswing in violence against troops as Al Qaeda will want to prove that they aren't done. After that, back to the same old. Things won't really change in Iraq until the Iraqi government gets stronger and the Iraqi people have faith that it can get things done.

Of course, it will make the pro war and pro Bush cheerleaders simply unbearable for quite some time.
  #15  
Old 06-08-2006, 07:44 AM
Sevastopol Sevastopol is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 3,438
It will probably prolong the war. The object of the invasion being to kill Arabs, as with every other death of an Arab, this one is a victory and will reassure the folks back home that the US is getting good at meeting its purpose in Iraq.
  #16  
Old 06-08-2006, 07:46 AM
Hentor the Barbarian Hentor the Barbarian is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 14,427
It is certainly a good thing that he was killed. I only wish that prior to his death he could have known the kind of pain and fear that he caused in the people who he beheaded.

At this point, it seems unlikely that it will make much difference in the larger picture, in terms of the ongoing violence. We've probably created far more people willing to fight against us or join in terrorist activities than would be deterred from such behavior by Zarqawi's death.

It also is a matter of being a day late and a dollar short for the Bush administration. Those who want to support him and to save face personally will give him kudos. Perhaps they would be deserved if Bush had taken Zarqawi out when they had the chance, long before the start of all this shit. Zarqawi would then not have been able to develop the power and status that he did, or lead whatever movement he has. Was is worth it, their apparent political calculation that he should have been left alive back then?
  #17  
Old 06-08-2006, 07:59 AM
The Flying Dutchman The Flying Dutchman is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: 50N West Georgia Strait
Posts: 8,604
Considering that it wasn't just Zarqawi that was killed but several of his associates and his spiritual advisor, the infrastructure of the insurgency might well have been delivered a severe blow. Communications between cells and the flow of munitions and money could well have been severely interupted.

I don't expect an immediate let up in the insurgency since the various front line cells are already equiped, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see a difference several months down the road.
  #18  
Old 06-08-2006, 08:04 AM
Sevastopol Sevastopol is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 3,438
The ever-reliable Juan Cole comments:

Quote:
Zarqawi Killed in Baquba ...

There is no evidence of operational links between his Salafi Jihadis in Iraq and the real al-Qaeda; it was just a sort of branding that suited everyone, including the US. Official US spokesmen have all along over-estimated his importance. Leaders are significant and not always easily replaced. But Zarqawi has in my view has been less important than local Iraqi leaders and groups. I don't expect the guerrilla war to subside any time soon.
...
  #19  
Old 06-08-2006, 08:05 AM
Ike Witt's Avatar
Ike Witt Ike Witt is offline
Friend of Cecil
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Lost in the mists of time
Posts: 14,086
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Flying Dutchman
Considering that it wasn't just Zarqawi that was killed but several of his associates and his spiritual advisor, the infrastructure of the insurgency might well have been delivered a severe blow. Communications between cells and the flow of munitions and money could well have been severely interupted.

I don't expect an immediate let up in the insurgency since the various front line cells are already equiped, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see a difference several months down the road.
Kinda like how the cocaine supply dried up a few months after Pablo Escobar was killed.
  #20  
Old 06-08-2006, 08:19 AM
Rune Rune is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
Posts: 4,731
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harborwolf
This isn't going to change a whole lot. I'd think there may be an upswing in violence against troops as Al Qaeda will want to prove that they aren't done. After that, back to the same old. Things won't really change in Iraq until the Iraqi government gets stronger and the Iraqi people have faith that it can get things done.
And that is one of the more positive aspects of it. Because apparently the strike that made pig fodder of the old terrorist was a joint Iraqi and US operation. The Iraqi troops that was part of it, will come out of this stronger and more self-confident. And it will strengthen, however slightly, the Iraqi civilians faith in the system. Of course, it'll also have some positive influence on the morale of the US military involved in the action.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harborwolf
Of course, it will make the pro war and pro Bush cheerleaders simply unbearable for quite some time.
And yes, it will have some positive effect on the US public morale.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sevastopol
It will probably prolong the war. The object of the invasion being to kill Arabs, as with every other death of an Arab, this one is a victory and will reassure the folks back home that the US is getting good at meeting its purpose in Iraq.
Gotta hand it to you guys. You make Ann Coulter sound quite moderate and sane by comparison.



The ironic thing is, that it is many of the same persons that belittle this terrorists end, that at other times will say that Bush's greatest fault is that he hasn't been able to catch Bin Laden. Well Zarqawi was an evil man. And the world is a little bit better place today than yesterday, because today he is dead.
  #21  
Old 06-08-2006, 08:20 AM
aldiboronti aldiboronti is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Troynovant
Posts: 8,134
Zarqawi Killed - Will It Make A Difference?

Well, it will to him.
  #22  
Old 06-08-2006, 08:37 AM
Rune Rune is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
Posts: 4,731
Makes a difference to Ken Bigley's family as well
  #23  
Old 06-08-2006, 08:44 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 37,349
Just read Bush's statement about Zarqawi's death.

Funny about how he made no mention of the three times in 2002-03, before the war, when the military was ready to pull the trigger on him, and Bush gave them the thumbs-down each time.

Of course it's always good when someone like Zarqawi gets bumped, and I'll shed no more tears for him than I did for Uday and Qusay. (I was pretty optimistic about the effects of seeing those two gone, but that optimism was unwarranted.) It certainly makes things better. But if I stop to pick up a quarter on the street, it makes my life better too. The question is, materially better, or trivially better? In Zarqawi's case, I'd say trivially. Transnational terrorism isn't the driver of the chaos in Iraq.
  #24  
Old 06-08-2006, 08:49 AM
Ryan_Liam Ryan_Liam is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Manchester, England
Posts: 4,028
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sevastopol
The ever-reliable Juan Cole comments:
Who has never been to Iraq. Christopher Hitchens has
  #25  
Old 06-08-2006, 08:51 AM
Canadjun Canadjun is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Alberta Canada
Posts: 4,482
I vote for Zarqawi's death making things worse. The insurgents will now consider him a martyr. Yes, a bunch of other senior people were taken out with him, but other people will replace them, ready to martyr themselves in the same way.
  #26  
Old 06-08-2006, 08:59 AM
Hentor the Barbarian Hentor the Barbarian is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 14,427
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan_Liam
Who has never been to Iraq. Christopher Hitchens has
So has George Bush. Doesn't appear to have made a bit of difference in how much he knows about Iraq.

So has Donald Rumsfeld - remember the warm handshake photos? Doesn't mean he hasn't made a total cock-up of it.

Al Franken has been to Iraq. I trust that means you'll accept his opinion of the matter?

I have thought of one additional positive outcome of Zarqawi's death - It seems to have made our conservative friends here come out of their hidey holes! Welcome back my friends. Hope you'll stay for longer than the media cycle.
  #27  
Old 06-08-2006, 09:06 AM
Don Logan Don Logan is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 150
Will make no difference whatsoever- I can't believe people think this is "news". There are thousands of people who will jump at the chance to take over his role.
Did arresting John Gotti end organized crime? No. Did arresting JP Escobar end the
flow of cocaine? No. This will have the same impact- none. Making a big deal of this non story is more propaganda to make the US think headway is being made.
  #28  
Old 06-08-2006, 09:17 AM
DeAngelo Williams DeAngelo Williams is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 13
I think this will make a difference in US and Iraqi morale. And of right now, that is probably one of the most important aspects of this war.
  #29  
Old 06-08-2006, 09:33 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 37,349
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeAngelo Williams
I think this will make a difference in US and Iraqi morale. And of right now, that is probably one of the most important aspects of this war.
Isn't it past the point when anyone can believe a morale boost will make a difference?

If you're a US or Iraqi soldier fighting the Sunni insurgency, and tomorrow's the same old same old, that morale boost will disappear awfully fast.
  #30  
Old 06-08-2006, 09:39 AM
Ryan_Liam Ryan_Liam is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Manchester, England
Posts: 4,028
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hentor the Barbarian
So has George Bush. Doesn't appear to have made a bit of difference in how much he knows about Iraq.

So has Donald Rumsfeld - remember the warm handshake photos? Doesn't mean he hasn't made a total cock-up of it.

Al Franken has been to Iraq. I trust that means you'll accept his opinion of the matter?

I have thought of one additional positive outcome of Zarqawi's death - It seems to have made our conservative friends here come out of their hidey holes! Welcome back my friends. Hope you'll stay for longer than the media cycle.
I'm just pointing out the amount of criticism I got for expressing positive opinions on the conflict, and being called 'Armchair Ryan_Liam' yet Cole, who has never been to Iraq, has been quoted to someone as gospel for those who don't think Iraq will turn out better in the end than expected.

Zarqawis death and the Iraqi governments approval of the interior and defence posts gives a substantial boost to the confidence of the Iraq government, no ones really realised that now Iraq has a full working Government which is elected and legitimate, and has now killed the number 1 terrorist in Iraq.
  #31  
Old 06-08-2006, 09:44 AM
Diogenes the Cynic Diogenes the Cynic is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: St. Paul, MN
Posts: 58,797
No difference whatsoever. We're fighting a hydra. Cut off one head and ten more grow in its place.
  #32  
Old 06-08-2006, 09:56 AM
Hentor the Barbarian Hentor the Barbarian is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 14,427
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan_Liam
I'm just pointing out the amount of criticism I got for expressing positive opinions on the conflict, and being called 'Armchair Ryan_Liam' yet Cole, who has never been to Iraq, has been quoted to someone as gospel for those who don't think Iraq will turn out better in the end than expected.
Are you really comparing your relative expertise of an armchair supporter of Bush's misadventure to the demonstrable expertise of a man who has made his career that of Muslim studies and who has lived and studied in Muslim countries?

Isn't that a bit like saying "Well, neither Stephen Hawking nor I have ever been in a black hole, so our opinions on the matter carry equal weight"?
  #33  
Old 06-08-2006, 09:56 AM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Home 07 NCAA HockeyChamps
Posts: 20,712
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Logan
Did arresting John Gotti end organized crime? No. Did arresting JP Escobar end the flow of cocaine? No. This will have the same impact- none. Making a big deal of this non story is more propaganda to make the US think headway is being made.
That's a much better analogy than my Eisenhower one. The hydra example is good too. One more martyr, a hundred more recruits for al Qaeda.
  #34  
Old 06-08-2006, 10:00 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 37,349
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rune
And that is one of the more positive aspects of it. Because apparently the strike that made pig fodder of the old terrorist was a joint Iraqi and US operation. The Iraqi troops that was part of it, will come out of this stronger and more self-confident.
Zarqawi was killed by an air strike. Exactly how is that going to make the Iraqi ground troops feel more confident?
Quote:
And it will strengthen, however slightly, the Iraqi civilians faith in the system.
Like when they go to claim the body of a relative at the morgue, and get disappeared when they do. As they get hauled away, their faith in the system will surely be stronger than it would have if Zarqawi hadn't gotten killed.
Quote:
Of course, it'll also have some positive influence on the morale of the US military involved in the action.
I expect even the lowest-level private in Iraq knows enough that he'll be surprised if this affects his job at all.

Quote:
And yes, it will have some positive effect on the US public morale.
It might indeed do that. Call me a cynic, but I see no evidence to disbelieve that that's the whole point of the way this war has been handled, from start to finish.

Quote:
Gotta hand it to you guys. You make Ann Coulter sound quite moderate and sane by comparison.
Are we talking about the same Ann Coulter who said the of the 9/11 widows, "I have never seen people enjoying their husbands’ death so much"?

Just wondering.

Quote:
The ironic thing is, that it is many of the same persons that belittle this terrorists end, that at other times will say that Bush's greatest fault is that he hasn't been able to catch Bin Laden.
It's certainly one of his faults, but the competition for Bush's greatest failing is a bit too intense for that to even make the quarterfinals. The Iraq war; the absence of any significant homeland security, five years after 9/11, that doesn't involve domestic spying; the domestic spying; the mess that is post-Katrina New Orleans; massive budget deficits; the fuckup/Big Pharma subsidy that is the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit; the failure to address global warming; workers' wages that are still stagnant in the fifth year of the recovery; astoundingly large trade deficits; you name it.

But nearly 5 years after Bush's "dead or alive" remark, bin Laden's still on the loose - and probably hiding in the territory of our good buddy and supposed ally in the GWoT, Pakistan. That's not exactly impressive, in a bunch of ways.
Quote:
Well Zarqawi was an evil man. And the world is a little bit better place today than yesterday, because today he is dead.
And that's pretty much all that can be said about it.
  #35  
Old 06-08-2006, 10:07 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 37,349
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan_Liam
I'm just pointing out the amount of criticism I got for expressing positive opinions on the conflict, and being called 'Armchair Ryan_Liam' yet Cole, who has never been to Iraq, has been quoted to someone as gospel for those who don't think Iraq will turn out better in the end than expected.
Juan Cole's got a daily blog going back several years. If you think his analysis has been weak, there's reams of material for you to use to make your case.

Same with anyone else who's been commenting on Iraq for awhile. Heck, feel free to comb through my old posts from 2002-03 and see how they stack up against Hitchens, who's been to Iraq. (I haven't.)

Quote:
no ones really realised that now Iraq has a full working Government which is elected and legitimate, and has now killed the number 1 terrorist in Iraq.
We killed Zarqawi with an air strike. And Iraq's government is 'working' in the sense of the major positions being filled, and they're meeting at the appropriate times.

You may have noticed that they don't exactly govern the country that they're the official government of.
  #36  
Old 06-08-2006, 10:16 AM
Loopydude Loopydude is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 8,299
I know how impossible it would have been, but the first thing I thought when I heard the news was "too bad they couldn't capture him". He must have known at least a few things of value to the Coalition.

I simply have no idea if this will make a substantive difference or not, in the long run. News analysts say most probably not, and I think what informs their opinion mostly is not so much an assessment of Zarqawi's importance to the insurgency, but the lack of a positive impact other such killings have had on the violence. Cautiously, I'd say there may even be an increase in violence in the short term, as Sunni forces step up anti-Shia attacks to send a defiant message. After that? Really tough to say.
  #37  
Old 06-08-2006, 10:30 AM
Sevastopol Sevastopol is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 3,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by RTFirefly
...Ryan L...

Are we talking about the same Ann Coulter who said the of the 9/11 widows, "I have never seen people enjoying their husbands’ death so much"?
Go carefully. Our Ryan is expert on Ms Coulter, living in Manchester UK and all.
  #38  
Old 06-08-2006, 10:42 AM
Shodan Shodan is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
Posts: 37,954
If anything were more predictable than the sun rising in the east, it would be the Usual Suspects falling all over each other denying that any success in the war on terror was a success.

Next most predictable will be the instant flip-flop from "why aren't we concentrating on bin Laden" to "this is meaningless" when and if we kill bin Laden.

Knee-jerk condemnation of everything and anything related to Bush and the war on terror. Imagine my surprise.

Regards,
Shodan
  #39  
Old 06-08-2006, 10:58 AM
Diogenes the Cynic Diogenes the Cynic is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: St. Paul, MN
Posts: 58,797
This is the Iraq War, dude, not the pretend War on Terror. Get your wars straight.

"Victory" in Iraq isn't even very relevant. I never opposed the war because I thought we wouldn't win. Winning it doesn't make it right.
  #40  
Old 06-08-2006, 10:59 AM
Ryan_Liam Ryan_Liam is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Manchester, England
Posts: 4,028
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sevastopol
Go carefully. Our Ryan is expert on Ms Coulter, living in Manchester UK and all.
I don't know what you imply by that since I didn't even talk about Coulter, but if you're implicating that because I support the Iraq war, the Iraqi government, and the Iraqi peoples attempts to build a government they elected, your assertions are wildly out of place.

Quote:
RTFirefly

Juan Cole's got a daily blog going back several years. If you think his analysis has been weak, there's reams of material for you to use to make your case.

Same with anyone else who's been commenting on Iraq for awhile. Heck, feel free to comb through my old posts from 2002-03 and see how they stack up against Hitchens, who's been to Iraq. (I haven't.)
I take whatever Juan says with a pinch of Salt, most of what he talks about is off the mark even with relative facts.

http://iraqpundit.blogspot.com/

This blog punches a few holes in what he says, and has added value because it comes from an Iraq.

Quote:
We killed Zarqawi with an air strike. And Iraq's government is 'working' in the sense of the major positions being filled, and they're meeting at the appropriate times.
The Iraqi police got around the area first and surrounded it, helped claim Zarqawis body, intelligence was also dependent on Iraqis, all the US did was primarily blow the bastard to bits.

Quote:
You may have noticed that they don't exactly govern the country that they're the official government of.
Yes they do, they carry out the daily functions of government, are the main force of political process, progress or no progress within the country. In terms of what they don't 'govern' is the logistical aspects of the Iraqi army which is being trained, and the airspace which given the circumstances, they can't control for the foreseeable future. All which is understandable considering it's only been 3 years since the toppling of the Hussein regime.
  #41  
Old 06-08-2006, 11:08 AM
Hentor the Barbarian Hentor the Barbarian is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 14,427
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shodan
If anything were more predictable than the sun rising in the east, it would be the Usual Suspects falling all over each other denying that any success in the war on terror was a success.
Okay - rather than snark on by, please lay out exactly how the success of this event is going to play out. What will we see in the next week that will indicate this was successful? How about over the next month? What milestones will we view to know that we should hang our heads in shame having failed to believe Shodan and his cohort's collective wisdom?

My guess is that nothing remarkable will be evident, and that when we point out that the insurgents continue to engage in acts of violence at roughly the same rate, we will be told that we are failing to take note of all the schools that have been built, or that electricity is available for an additional 15 minutes on Tuesdays. We will then be treated to a rant about the failings of the MSM and aspersions cast at the journalists in the region.

If we're told anything at all, and you (in general terms) haven't slunk back into your fortified dens with your Limbaugh tuned into the radio, or if you even post on the SDMB any more. Here's a glass raised to the fallen SDMB conservatives: if only they were here today they could share in your predictive (and exceptionally predictable) outrage.
  #42  
Old 06-08-2006, 11:09 AM
Sevastopol Sevastopol is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 3,438
Clearly I was mistaken in confusing our Ryan Liam with the one that opened a pit thread regarding Riverbend you know, the young woman critical of the war, who lives in Iraq.
  #43  
Old 06-08-2006, 11:16 AM
Shodan Shodan is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
Posts: 37,954
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diogenes the Cynic
This is the Iraq War, dude, not the pretend War on Terror. Get your wars straight.
There is no distinction, as the death of a major al-Queda operative as part of the war in Iraq demonstrates.
Quote:
"Victory" in Iraq isn't even very relevant. I never opposed the war because I thought we wouldn't win. Winning it doesn't make it right.
Sounds like you are hedging your bets so that you can condemn whatever happens, no matter what happens.

Like I said, the same will happen if and when we get bin Laden. A constant chorus of "we should be concentrating on bin Laden!" followed by "this means nothing! Nothing, I tell you!" Just like it was "we should be concentrating on al-Queda" until we kill its most active operative, when it switched to "this is terrible - there will be a thousand more recruits!"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hentor the Barbarian
What will we see in the next week that will indicate this was successful?
We will see the Usual Suspects hail it as a major defeat for the US, an opportunity to condemn Bush, and a dozen or so Pit threads will be spawned attacking anyone and anything they can think of relating to it.

That's often an indication.

Regards,
Shodan
  #44  
Old 06-08-2006, 11:16 AM
John Mace's Avatar
John Mace John Mace is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: South Bay
Posts: 85,197
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diogenes the Cynic
This is the Iraq War, dude, not the pretend War on Terror. Get your wars straight
Actually, Zarqawi fits into both.

I'm with JC on this one. I don't know how al-Qaeda in Iraq (or whatever he group is called) is organized and I don't think anyone here does either. There are (at a high level) two wars going on in Iraq-- one is a power struggle between the various ethnic groups and the other (Zarqawi's war) is one of broad terrorism with no specific political objective. To the extent that US troops remain in Iraq to eradicate Zarqawi's war, this may help us get out of there sooner. I'd like to hope that's the case, but I'm not overly optimistic.

I think DtC's hydra analysis is a good one for the civil strife going on right now, but I'm not so sure it's correct for the al-Qaeda inspired terrorism that exists there. We'll see.
  #45  
Old 06-08-2006, 11:24 AM
Hentor the Barbarian Hentor the Barbarian is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 14,427
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shodan
We will see the Usual Suspects hail it as a major defeat for the US, an opportunity to condemn Bush, and a dozen or so Pit threads will be spawned attacking anyone and anything they can think of relating to it.

That's often an indication.

Regards,
Shodan
I take this as an indication that you are unable to identify anything that will actually determine whether this event can be called a success in regards to the war in Iraq or the War on Terror. Either that, or you are unwilling to actually commit to any standards of measurement, lest it be evident that you were wrong about this, too.
  #46  
Old 06-08-2006, 11:28 AM
Loopydude Loopydude is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 8,299
One thing definitely worth considering is al-Zarqawi's death may have been, to a significan extent, an inside job. We wouldn't have found him without tipoffs (see Haroborwolf above), and the scuttlebutt appears to be these tipoffs may have come from fairly high up in the AQ food chain. Perhaps OBL and/or others who are by no means friends of the USA wanted him dead.

al-Zarqawi's brand of insurgency was a particularly swaggering, brutal, and dirty one (from an Arab perspective, at least), where innocent Iraqis were frequently and quite deliberately targeted to foment internal conflict, the idea being that fanning the flames of sectarian hatred within Iraq would precipitate conditions that would speed US withdrawl. al-Z. made a lot of enemies both within and outside of Iraq with this program, and it's probably a safe bet those enemies included other AQ leadership. His movement certainly seems conterproductive considering some of OBL's stated goals, as well as his exhortations for Iraqis to stop killing each other and focus on Americans.

So, again, that's something to think about pretty seriously, I suspect.
  #47  
Old 06-08-2006, 11:38 AM
Larry Borgia's Avatar
Larry Borgia Larry Borgia is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Washington DC
Posts: 10,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem
It will make about as much difference as the 473 times the US has captured the #2 man in al Qaeda. Getting bin Laden himself would not make appreciable difference. One leader falls, another takes his place. Would the US have given up in WW II if Eisenhower had been killed? Of course not. Guys like Zarqawu and bin Laden were created by terrorism, not the other way around.
The number 2 man in Al Qaeda is Ayman al-Zawahiri. Always was and always will be until the happy day when he is killed or captured. I've never understood this meme on the left that we're always getting the number two guy. Zawahiri is the number two guy, a fact that was well known even before 9/11. Zarqawi was the head of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and was frequently at odds with the regular Al-Qaeda, especially over his attacks which killed Arabs, like the Jordan hotel bombings.

Sorry for the hijack. As far as the OP, it won't make that much of a difference. First someone else is going to replace him. Second, the problem in Iraq isn't Zarqawi, it's the lawless chaos that allows someone like him, or the sectarian gangs, to flourish. I'm still glad he's dead, and I hope the bastard suffered.
  #48  
Old 06-08-2006, 11:41 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 37,349
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shodan
If anything were more predictable than the sun rising in the east, it would be the Usual Suspects falling all over each other denying that any success in the war on terror was a success.
(a) What Dio said. Wrong war.

What we're talking about here is the violence in Iraq. You've probably noticed that Sunnis and Shi'ites are killing each other in fairly significant numbers of late. You've also probably realized that killing Zarqawi isn't going to make the animosity underlying those killings go away, nor do those on either side lack the means to continue the killing.

(b) Sure, it's a success; it's just not a particularly meaningful one, in terms of the big picture. Compared to, say, Saddam's capture, this should be small potatoes. As you can see from that link, and the one above referencing Uday and Qusay, I have had my moments of celebration over such transitory victories. I have learned that there's no point in celebrating. Do you claim I should have learned some other lesson? If so, make your case.
Quote:
Next most predictable will be the instant flip-flop from "why aren't we concentrating on bin Laden" to "this is meaningless" when and if we kill bin Laden.
Everybody knows why we aren't concentrating on bin Laden: virtually our entire conventional military might is bogged down in Iraq.

Despite that - and despite the reality that bin Laden's death or capture would be less significant strategically now, under what is believed to be a much more decentralized al Qaeda network, than it would have been three or four years ago - our failure to kill or capture the man behind the killing of 3000 Americans on 9/11 is still a huge failure. We owe it to the dead, and to their survivors, to make sure he doesn't get away with it.

Quote:
Knee-jerk condemnation of everything and anything related to Bush and the war on terror. Imagine my surprise.
Hey, imagine Shodan reflexively defending Bush, no matter how great the fuckup. Who'd'a thunk?
  #49  
Old 06-08-2006, 11:42 AM
Squink Squink is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Yes
Posts: 20,345
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Mace
I'm with JC on this one. I don't know how al-Qaeda in Iraq (or whatever he group is called) is organized and I don't think anyone here does either.
However, we did see this bit of information back in April:
Quote:
Following months of rumors, it's pretty much been confirmed that al Qaeda-in-Iraq leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi has been demoted. An Iraqi Sunni now heads the operation, with Zarqawi just dealing with "military matters." Even in that respect, Zarqawi is probably on a short leash.
IIRC, there were later reports that Zarqawi regained his leading position, but it's tough to decide what's believable, and what's BS. Regardless of how hard it is to confirm details, it does seem that al-Qaeda in Iraq has a viable organization even without Zarqawi.
  #50  
Old 06-08-2006, 11:48 AM
Squink Squink is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Yes
Posts: 20,345
King Canute Speaks:
Quote:
Wednesday's death of the Jordanian-born Zarqawi "is a severe blow to al Qaeda," a victory in the war on terrorism, and "an opportunity for Iraq's new government to turn the tide in this struggle."
Thank God this isn't just another corner turning!
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:59 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2018 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017