What are the political predictions of bruce bueno de mesquita for international affairs

Wesley_Clark · October 6, 2009, 3:57am

I’m not sure if this is a question or a debate, since it is both. GD it is. But Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist who uses game theory and choice theory to try to determine the outcome of international events. A CIA investigation found that he was 90% accurate in his predictions.

He predicts that Iran will basically stop their nuclear program after they have enough fuel to build a bomb, but they will not build one.

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html
Has he predicted anything with Afghanistan, North Korea, climate change, energy or anything like that that anyone knows of?

He predicted if the US pulled out of Iraq, then Iran could intervene militarily to side with the Shias against the sunni nationalists. So a reserve force of 50,000 (which Obama has called for) needs to be left in Iraq.

I conclude that if the U.S. fully withdraws, then Iran and Iraq will form a strategic partnership and Iran might even intervene militarily on behalf of Iraq’s Shia government to put down a rising political threat from the pro-Baathist, anti-American, Sunni Vice President of Iraq, Tariq al-Hashimi. Hashimi’s power is predicted to increase markedly while Prime Minister Maliki’s declines if President Obama decides not to maintain 50,000 American troops in Iraq. If, however, he chooses to keep 50,000 or more troops in Iraq after August 2010, then Iran and Iraq will not forge a strategic alliance, Hashimi’s growing power will be contained, and Maliki will remain in charge. And in Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei’s power will continue to decline while the military, the moneyed interests and the Qum clerics will become the backbone of a more moderate, more pragmatic Iranian regime.

I would like to read some of his predictions on issues like North Korea, democracy and human rights in China, climate change (if he covers that), etc. Does anyone know where I can get a list of his predictions? I can’t find any.

Lantern · October 6, 2009, 6:37am

I hadn’t heard of him till he appeared on the Daily Show a few days ago. I found this profile which is well worth reading though it doesn’t talk about specific predictions on the issues you mention.

His proposal to move forward on the Israel/Palestine issue is quite ingenious:

Bueno de Mesquita’s answer to this dilemma, which he discussed with the former Israeli prime minister and recently elected Labor leader Ehud Barak, is a formula that guarantees mutual incentives to cooperate. “In a peaceful world, what do the Palestinians anticipate will be their main source of economic viability? Tourism. This is what their own documents say. And, of course, the Israelis make a lot of money from tourism, and that revenue is very easy to track. As a starting point requiring no trust, no mutual cooperation, I would suggest that all tourist revenue be [divided by] a fixed formula based on the current population of the region, which is roughly 40 percent Palestinian, 60 percent Israeli. The money would go automatically to each side. Now, when there is violence, tourists don’t come. So the tourist revenue is automatically responsive to the level of violence on either side for both sides. You have an accounting firm that both sides agree to, you let the U.N. do it, whatever. It’s completely self-enforcing, it requires no cooperation except the initial agreement by the Israelis that they are going to turn this part of the revenue over, on a fixed formula based on population, to some international agency, and that’s that.”