To the academicians and intellectissimas of the Straight Dope:
Today, as I waited in line at breakfast, I chatted with a police officer, and suggested that today (weather forecast - overcast and rainy all day) was a good day for police work, because most criminal types would stay inside and not cause trouble. She told me that in fact, it was just the opposite - criminals are not deterred by inclement weather, and might even seek it out as the best time to do their dirty deeds because they know nobody will be outside to see them.
If there any support to either hypothesis? In times of great rain or snow or other weather hostile to walking around outside, do crime rates shoot up, go down, or stay about the same?
I am also interested in this, I’ve always assumed that inconvenient times or terrible weather (sleet, etc.) made it much safer. The theory being, I suppose, that criminals in general were lazy. I’ve heard, though, that early morning is a big time for rapes (of joggers, etc.). I wouldn’t think that rapists were really into getting up early (no pun intended). But, maybe I shouldn’t get my information on crime risk from Lifetime movies.
A bank robber was once quoted as calling a rainy day a great day for robbing. He claimed that running from the bank on a rainy day did not draw attention, as everyone ran to avoid the rain.
(saw it on TV)
IANA Sociologist or anything but I was breifly socially exposed to a small cross section of definite criminal types via a g/f (who turned out to be involved in drug trafficking). Just like many high dollar sales centric businesses, when the client wants to meet, you go. If the client wants to meet at 2am in a raging thunderstorm, you meet them at 2am. I have met more than my share of real estate agents who would probably do the same if they knew they were going to close a house that way.
When i lived in Baltimore, a guy on my softball team was a middle-ranking officer in the Washington, D.C. police force. I can’t remember his rank, but he supervised over 100 people.
Anyway, i asked him about this once, and he said that crimes like street muggings and car robberies often went down in bad weather, but that things like domestic complaints often went up as people stayed in their houses and had a chance to get on each others’ nerves.
In addition to RNATB’s citation, above, a couple of more recent studies suggest that, while temperature and humidity are a factor in crime rates, the correlation for rainfall is less certain. The first is from the US (Ohio), and the second is from the UK.
Often, these rapists aren’t getting up early, they haven’t been to bed yet. They have been flying on drugs or alcohol, and may have been awake for many hours (even days, sometime).
A bit off topic but, based on my g/f’s 10+ years as a Sexual Assault Nurse Examiner (she collects forensic evidence from victims) , most rapes aren’t the “man in the bush waiting for a jogger” variety. Date rape, drugging, family member/friend are far more common. Those types of scum bags don’t give a hoot about the weather.
My anecdotal experience from about 6 years in a 9-1-1 center says rainy days bring an increase in domestic violence, car accidents, and burglar alarms, and a decrease in public order disturbances such as bar fights or public intoxication. Burglar alarms went up due to faults in the system rather than increases in actual burglary attempts.
The classic “it was a dark and stormy night” weather was usually an indicator of a relatively quiet night ahead.
Live in New Orleans, spent some time in various other Southern cities here. I got a WAG: A lot of people get shot in drive-bys and such when they’re hanging out outside with their friends. Perhaps rainy days would lower that, but so would very, very hot sunny days. Probably evens out overall.
All I can add is that a heavy, heavy snowstorm will limit visabiltiy to about 20 feet and anything you might want to do, say, 100 yards off the main road ain’t gonna be seen by anyone.
And all trace of any activity is covered up real quick.
We always brace ourselves every year in our “up-and-coming” neighborhood toward the very end of August into September. Gun shots go way up right about that time of year, like clockwork, for stupid gang territorial crap or drug issues.
We have hypothesized that because the weather is starting to cool slightly in the evening, it brings the hoodlums out of the AC and onto the streets for the nice weather, where they inevitably piss each other off and start shooting.
Anyone feeling brave and need a dissertation topic?
