Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread

Politics & Elections
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Here it is, with the permission of adaher – the place to discuss any and all of his 2016 election predictions! This OP will be my first attempt to list all of his predictions for the election cycle that I can find – feel free to point out any I missed. Also feel free to comment on and discuss his predictions, and hopefully he will add more predictions through the cycle. Much fun will be had by all (except for, come voting day 2016, adaher – just kidding!).

These will be listed as I find them, not necessarily in order.

Here is a correct prediction – Perry is the first Republican to drop out. Way to go adaher!

This post sums up two predictions – that Sanders will win NH in the Democratic primary and that Sanders will not be allowed to win if Clinton falters.

Here is a prediction that Clinton’s favorables will remain negative for the rest of the campaign.

Here is a prediction that Clinton will win the SC Democratic primary by a small margin in a close race.

Here is a prediction (early in the summer) that Bernie will win NH, throw the race into turmoil, and cause another “big name” candidate to jump in the race.

Here’s a very early prediction that he’s already retracted/changed – that Bernie Sanders will finish fourth in the Democratic primary.

That’s all I’ve found so far – it appears that many of these predictions were repeated multiple times, but I only included them once.

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Here’s one:

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Good find. He didn’t say “I predict” or some variation, so I’ll leave it to him whether it’s an actual prediction or just a throwaway guess.

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Here’s one.

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One more.

Definitely not crazy. Says so right there.

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Adding the context in here for easier checking later - That’s if Rubio gets the nomination his **approval **rating will be 60+%. Likely we don’t get to test that one for accuracy. :stuck_out_tongue:

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In that case his statement would be vacuously true, and thus a correct prediction.

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That’s a firm prediction.

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Rubio is actually campaigning well, so he’s well situated to be the establishment guy to break out if the outsiders falter. But even I’m not crazy enough to predict a winner at this point. I don’t even know who is going to win Iowa. In either party.

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This makes me very happy.

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Can I make a prediction? I think adaher’s predictions will get more debate on this board than Nate Silver’s predictions.

That’s not an insult directed toward anyone. Just an observation.

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According to PredictWise, as of right now we have:


Joe Biden	8 %
Bernie Sanders	7 %
Martin OMalley	0 %
Ben Carson	2 %
John Kasich	2 %
Chris Christie	2 %
Marco Rubio	6 %

A total of 27 %. That’s not the super likely, but it’s also not the craziest prediction I’ve ever seen.

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Juuuust want to pop in here to say that I support the thread. Adaher seems OK with it and that’s fine by me.

But I’ll withdraw that support if it becomes mean or rude. But that would never happen, right?

And I want to reiterate that it might be fun to have one for others as well. Best guess is that the election has twists and turns that surprises us all.

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All predictions welcome here.

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I agree with this. Once all the early noise settles down, I think he will be one of the few still standing.

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adaher is a good sport. I’ll make my own prediction that the final four are Clinton, Biden, Bush, and Trump.

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Let me weigh in here on VP possibilities. These are not firm predictions, just educated guesses. I will make firm predictions on who will NOT be VP for a particular candidate:

Hillary Clinton: possibles: Tom Vilsack, Bill Richardson, Wes Clark, Howard Dean, Terry McCauliffe. No way in hell: anyone in the current field competing against her and no one who endorsed Obama over her in 2008.

Liz Warren will be considered however, by Biden or Sanders or O’Malley. Let me throw in a wild card for Sanders: Robert Reich.

For the GOP, if it’s an outsider candidate, I don’t know who the hell. Maybe Fiorina would go for Lindsey Graham, given Graham and Fiorina’s mutual friendship with John McCain. I’m a little more sure about the establishment guys. Rubio will be on everyone’s short list. But here’s two names that are likely who aren’t currently running who will be on Rubio, Bush, or Kasich’s short lists: Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty.

Since this is a prediction thread, I’d bet on being right about one of those. The universe of possible VP nominees is pretty huge, so I’d be satisfied if I’d named one of them correctly.

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My prediction that Jindal would be the next out was a fail. Walker is the next out. Have to admit, I was sure Walker was the frontrunner to win Iowa, but with outsidermania taking over the GOP it looks like Rubio is the only guy that can make any headway.

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I know you have a serious man-crush on Marco but I just don’t see it happening. And my main objection has nothing to do with his politics.

No matter what he does he just comes across as this over eager Boy Scout. He seems like an inexperienced kid. Maybe down the road it could happen but I don’t see it happening this election cycle.

At the moment I think Kasich is the most likely to get the GOP nod but that could change down the road. There are a bunch of things that would have to break his way but ultimately I think it likely he will be the only non-cuckoo choice standing.

And I still think Hillary is the likely Dem. Actually, I’m more sure about that than anything on the GOP side at this point.

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I like Rubio, but he’s nowhere near ready to be President. Kasich is the guy who should be the nominee.