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  #201  
Old 01-15-2019, 12:16 PM
Ellis Dee is offline
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Originally Posted by kenobi 65 View Post
Well, as a matter of fact...
That's a fair point, especially since google says the 2pt success rate in 2018 was a staggering 60%.

I'm more interested in the thought experiment where a PAT is 100% and a 2pt is exactly 50%.

The way I look at it is this:

1) I need another TD
2) I need one 2pt conversion, with little way to improve the odds on it
3) I need one PAT, with no way to improve the odds on it

No matter what we do, we need all three of the above things. Going for a 2pt first and missing cuts down on the chances of the TD by a substantial margin.

Since I can't really change the other two, I focus my decision on maximizing the chances of the TD.

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 01-15-2019 at 12:16 PM.
  #202  
Old 01-15-2019, 05:28 PM
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No matter what we do, we need all three of the above things. Going for a 2pt first and missing cuts down on the chances of the TD by a substantial margin.

Since I can't really change the other two, I focus my decision on maximizing the chances of the TD.
But if you go for the 2pt on the second time and miss, you just lose. Going for the 2pt first and making it means you know you can get the maximum chance of the TD.

Last edited by Taber; 01-15-2019 at 05:29 PM.
  #203  
Old 01-15-2019, 07:47 PM
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Going for the 2pt first and making it means you know you can get the maximum chance of the TD.
...half the time. The other half of the time you missed the 2pt and essentially lost the game right there and then.

Any way you slice, if you miss the 2pt conversion you need a miracle to win. Strategizing a way to maximize the miracle odds is a fool's errand, and is really only applicable to videogames. When you have real people (athletes and coaches) involved, it's not a sound strategy to put all your eggs in one 50% play before you absolutely have to.

(However, in the real world, with the success rate of 60%, I can see selling that to the team, ownership, and fans.)

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 01-15-2019 at 07:49 PM.
  #204  
Old 01-15-2019, 08:25 PM
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...half the time. The other half of the time you missed the 2pt and essentially lost the game right there and then.
It is also only half the time if you save the 2 pointer for later, you just don't know it yet.

I'm just saying that it is irrelevant to say that going for 2 later maximizes your chance to get the TD, because 50% of the time, you know for sure you should maximize the TD chance even if you went for the 2 points early, and the other 50% of the time, maximizing the TD chance just means you lose by 2 instead of 9.

Last edited by Taber; 01-15-2019 at 08:26 PM.
  #205  
Old 01-20-2019, 10:14 AM
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Who you got today?

I looked on vegasinsider.com this morning and was surprised to see the lines on today's games are exactly the same:

Saints are favored by 3 1/2 over the Rams. Over/under is 56 1/2.
Chiefs are favored by 3 1/2 over the Pats. Over/under is 56 1/2.

I think both underdogs win the games. And I think that both games will be under 56 1/2 points.

I hope I'm wrong on all counts.
  #206  
Old 01-20-2019, 12:05 PM
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I would very much like to see a SB where Brady takes on Brees, I'm pretty sure they've not played in the big game before.

However, I really like watching Mahomes play too, and am generally rooting for KC because they deserve a SB berth and their fans are really cool.

I guess ultimately all you can ask for are good games. We should see plenty of offense.
  #207  
Old 01-20-2019, 01:55 PM
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Is anyone else sick and tired of the utter bullsit of the Pat's trying to play up their underdog status and how disrespected they are?
  #208  
Old 01-20-2019, 02:27 PM
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Is anyone else sick and tired of the utter bullsit of the Pat's trying to play up their underdog status and how disrespected they are?
Yes, although that doesn't worry me half as much as those fucking "real person" Chevy commercials. I'd like to bludgeon everyone involved in them to death with a tire iron, reserving special treatment for the smug bearded asshole in the grey jacket.
  #209  
Old 01-20-2019, 02:47 PM
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Saints utterly dominating the Rams right now. Really look like they're in their heads.
  #210  
Old 01-20-2019, 03:03 PM
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I did not foresee Todd Gurley being the main cause of the Rams losing so far. He drops one pass, which goes for a interception and another Saints score. Then drops another in the red zone that should have gone for a huge first down.
  #211  
Old 01-20-2019, 03:33 PM
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Rams fake punt and their stellar defense have made a game of it at halftime.
  #212  
Old 01-20-2019, 03:41 PM
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Is it just me, or is someone in the crowd blowing a whistle while the Rams are on offense?
  #213  
Old 01-20-2019, 03:42 PM
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Is it just me, or is someone in the crowd blowing a whistle while the Rams are on offense?
It definitely sounded that way to me, on at least one play.
  #214  
Old 01-20-2019, 03:53 PM
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It definitely sounded that way to me, on at least one play.
Confirmed by Troy Aikman.
  #215  
Old 01-20-2019, 04:13 PM
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Fun game. Both teams rising to the occasion, neither team hitting or killing themselves.
  #216  
Old 01-20-2019, 04:38 PM
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Is anyone else sick and tired of the utter bullsit of the Pat's trying to play up their underdog status and how disrespected they are?
Speaking as a Chief's fan, they are actually (and I think for the first time in a long time?) underdogs. Disrespected, not so much, although I guess Vegas having the temerity to install them as underdogs after seven years is a bit disrespectful.

And think of those 11-month old Pat's fans who've never seen their team win an AFC championship? don't remember where I saw that, but I liked it
  #217  
Old 01-20-2019, 04:59 PM
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Horrible no call. Shame. Saints better win or that will be the defining moment.

Last edited by Hamlet; 01-20-2019 at 05:00 PM.
  #218  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:00 PM
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Horrible no call. Shame. Saints better win or that will be the defining moment.
Yeah, what the hell was that horseshit?
  #219  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:02 PM
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That’s one of the most disgraceful no-calls I’ve ever seen in my life.
  #220  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:08 PM
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If you ever were looking for evidence the NFL is rigged...
  #221  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:10 PM
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If you ever were looking for evidence the NFL is rigged...
That comment is as pathetically idiotic as the non-call.
  #222  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:14 PM
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  #223  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:16 PM
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There we go, the make-up call for the no call from before. According to the script.


(For what it's worth, it really was PI)

Last edited by DSYoungEsq; 01-20-2019 at 05:16 PM.
  #224  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:17 PM
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Nevermind

Last edited by Hamlet; 01-20-2019 at 05:18 PM.
  #225  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:24 PM
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There’s no justice in this world.
  #226  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:24 PM
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Dude has leg.
  #227  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:24 PM
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Well, that no-call ends up mattering. That kick would have been good from almost 10 yards further.
  #228  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:25 PM
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PI is the least consistently officiated penalty. (Holding is close though.)

Last edited by WernhamHogg; 01-20-2019 at 05:26 PM.
  #229  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:26 PM
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There’s no justice in this world.
Your statement is contradicted by the fact that the f*cking Saints lost.
__________________
įoį

Last edited by garygnu; 01-20-2019 at 05:26 PM.
  #230  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:27 PM
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THE SAINTS WERE ROBBED!
  #231  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:35 PM
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Well now I really hope the Chiefs win. I donít want to have to cheer for the Patriots in the super bowl.
  #232  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:36 PM
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THE SAINTS WERE ROBBED!
This sentiment is surprising coming from one with your username...
  #233  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:57 PM
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I'm impressed Jim Nantz and Tony Romo can speak so clearly with Tom Brady's balls in their mouths.
  #234  
Old 01-20-2019, 05:58 PM
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This sentiment is surprising coming from one with your username...
I assume the LA is Louisiana.
  #235  
Old 01-20-2019, 06:04 PM
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I assume the LA is Louisiana.
It would be written LA, not L.A.
  #236  
Old 01-20-2019, 06:09 PM
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Thatís one of the most disgraceful no-calls Iíve ever seen in my life.
IIRC the officiating crew for this game reportedly was the crew that called the fewest penalties all season, so that might help explain the no calls this game.
  #237  
Old 01-20-2019, 06:12 PM
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Eh, the pass interference at the start of overtime show's they're willing to call it. The one they missed (just saw the replay) is egregious, to say the least.
  #238  
Old 01-20-2019, 06:13 PM
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I assume the LA is Louisiana.
Pretty sure he's from California. It was just that transparently a shit call that even someone from L.A. has to admit it. I have no dog in the fight, and that kick to end the game was awesome, and Sean McVay's story is cool and all that, but, wow, Saints got screwed on that no call.
  #239  
Old 01-20-2019, 07:09 PM
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Eh, the pass interference at the start of overtime show's they're willing to call it. The one they missed (just saw the replay) is egregious, to say the least.
Oh, come on. I mean, the DB only ran into the receiver, without looking at the ball, while the ball hit him in the back of his helmet after the contact. A really good receiver would have shrugged it off and made a helmet catch.
  #240  
Old 01-20-2019, 07:46 PM
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Had the DB done his job properly he'd have had an easy INT, possibly even a pick six.
  #241  
Old 01-20-2019, 07:58 PM
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Another fun, well played, and interesting game. Here's hoping the refs dont fuck this game up.
  #242  
Old 01-20-2019, 08:08 PM
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As much as I'd like it to be KC ball, and it still might be, but I'm pretty sure that didn't touch him.
  #243  
Old 01-20-2019, 08:09 PM
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This is not anywhere near the egregious no-call in the Saints game. It looked like it was a live ball to me watching it live. I think the overturn is probably the right call, but I think the original call should have stood because it didn't seem conclusive enough.
  #244  
Old 01-20-2019, 08:12 PM
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As much as I'd like it to be KC ball, and it still might be, but I'm pretty sure that didn't touch him.
I swear I want to punch the commentators. I loathe the Pats with every bone in my being, but it's not even that close. The ball did not touch him. At its closest point it's still maybe two inches from any part of his hand. At any rate, doesn't matter now with the interception, so go Chiefs!

Last edited by pulykamell; 01-20-2019 at 08:13 PM.
  #245  
Old 01-20-2019, 08:15 PM
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Great play call by the Chiefs. And I love that it came off a int.
  #246  
Old 01-20-2019, 08:20 PM
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Now there's the guaranteed BS call for Touching the Brady.
  #247  
Old 01-20-2019, 08:20 PM
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Bullshit roughing call. God I hope the refs dont fuck this game up.
  #248  
Old 01-20-2019, 08:22 PM
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God, these calls are pretty close. Except that roughing call. That was bullshit.
  #249  
Old 01-20-2019, 08:40 PM
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Exciting. Hate the non-call on a clear pick play though.
  #250  
Old 01-20-2019, 08:44 PM
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The PI call to set up that play also seemed ticky tack to me.

Also, am I wrong, or was returning the ball out of the end zone and burning the two minute warning a mistake?
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