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  #1  
Old 01-15-2019, 10:14 PM
adaher adaher is offline
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Make some predictions on the Democratic race

1) Who will be the nominee? Yes, of course it's early, but think of it like trying to predict a Super Bowl winner in the preseason. Just do it.

2) Which candidate will exceed expectations the most? There's often someone who does better than expected in a multi candidate field.

3) Which candidate will pull a Rick Perry and go from first tier to out of the race much earlier than expected?

4) Which top tier candidate is the most likely to just decide not to run? Obviously Harris and Warren are in, but Booker, Biden, Beto, and Bernie, the killer Bs are still on the fence.

5) Is there any candidate in the field that you wouldn't vote for if they won the nomination? Okay, not a prediction, but still an interesting question.

My answers:

1) Joe Biden. My predictions are usually wrong, but I'll explain my reasoning anyway. Biden seems to me like Romney in 2012. He's not the guy most of the party wants, but he is the guy most of the party will default to if no one emerges as better than Biden. And in the early going, the only one that really looks like a threat to him is Warren. And she won't take the black vote from Biden, which will be decisive. Her appeal is narrow, his is broad.


2) Two answers: Richard Ojeda, simply because if a state Senator wins even 1 delegate that's exceeding expectations. He might win more than one. My other answer is Jay Inslee. He's got a focus issue, he's got a record, he's an executive, he's likeable, he's smart, he's just the kind of guy that appeals to educated Democrats. He'll do really well in the suburbs.

3) Kamala Harris. I just don't think she can look smart standing on the same podium as Liz Warren, Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker, Joe Biden, and Jay Inslee. She just seems so unready, but she's been hyped so much a lot of the base really wants her to succeed. But I think the chance of a Rick Perry moment is high for her in the debates.

4) Two answers here too, for different reasons: Beto, since he can run for Senate in 2020, and his first national interview did not go well. This is not a policy wonk by any stretch of the imagination. He's just a nice guy who wants to be nice and liked. The second, and I hope I'm wrong, is Biden. Joe has a penchant for running when it's futile and turning down winnable races. Biden could win in 2020. So if he stays true to his history, he decide he doesn't want to run.

5) I won't say absolutely I'd support Trump over these candidates, but if the economy is good and he hasn't started any wars, I'm going with the do nothing but tweet and insult people buffoon over an idiot who wants to remake half the economy and possibly fix future elections and pack the courts. Do nothing idiot beats want to introduce radical change idiot every time. So that being said, my list of probably won't support over Trump is:

Kristen Gillbrand
Kamala Harris
Liz Warren
Bernie Sanders
Eric Holder
Terry Mac

The other 30 or so are acceptable to me.

Last edited by adaher; 01-15-2019 at 10:18 PM.
  #2  
Old 01-15-2019, 11:42 PM
FlikTheBlue FlikTheBlue is offline
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I'm in a pessimistic mood right now, so here's my answers from the prospective of a pessimistic liberal.

1. This is more like picking next year's Super Bowl right now, not like predicting the Super Bowl winner in the preseason. I'm going to say Elizabeth Warren.

2. I think someone from the moderate wing of the party will do better than expected. I assume Trump won't attract a serious challenger, so the old school conservatives might cross over and vote in the Democratic primary.. Whoever fills the slot of the "moderate Democrat" will likely do better than expected.

3. Agreed with Harris. Warren will get a lot of the votes that might otherwise go her way.

4. Beto (and probably Biden and Bernie as well).

5. None. I'd support any of the Democrats over Trump, even Bernie (assuming he's running as a D and not I).

Last edited by FlikTheBlue; 01-15-2019 at 11:45 PM.
  #3  
Old 01-16-2019, 01:45 AM
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1. Biden will be the nominee. The Democrats almost always go with the boring, mainstream candidate who's been in politics for too long. (See: 2000, 2004, 2016) In 2020, that would be Biden.

2. Gillibrand. Watching her, she seems more energetic and less phony then the others in the second tier like Booker, Harris, and Castro. I could see her poll numbers reaching 10% or even 15% after a good debate performance. But she won't win.

3. Warren. I think her campaign flight crashed on takeoff with the flub about the DNA test and her ancestry. She angered leftists who view her as a white women appropriating Native identity, and obviously she's got no support from outside the left. Furthermore she's just unpleasant and unable to connect with people who don't already agree with her. She'll be gone by South Carolina.

4. I would expect Beto to sit this one out. I presume he's smart enough to see that the field is crowded and that he can't get the nomination with only a guitar and a skateboard.

5. I'll probably vote for the Libertarian candidate again.


Looking at the Primary schedule, I expect it will all go down like this.

Long-shot candidates' only hope is to make a big splash in the debates. But with a big field, I assume it will be somewhat like the Republican debates last time, with only 10 or so candidates allowed in the real debate. The losers who can't make the cut will accept reality and drop out, or at least most will. I expect Yang, Ojeda, Delaney, Gabbard, and some others to be gone before Iowa.

In Iowa and New Hampshire, due to the big field, many candidates will finish in the low single digits. Those that do typically drop out. I expect that Castro, Warren, Buttigieg, and Bloomberg will do so. Possibly some others as well. I predict that Biden wins by a narrow margin in Iowa and Bernie takes New Hampshire by a large margin again.

So rolling into Nevada and South Carolina, the polls look like this: 1. Biden 2. Bernie 3. Gillibrand 4. Harris 5. Booker. Everyone else is gone.

Booker's only hope is a big showing among black voters in South Carolina. He doesn't get it and drops out.

Harris pins all her hopes on winning her home state of California on March 3. She doesn't, and drops out. Gillibrand wins Massachusetts, being an East Coast liberal, and has just enough delegates to justify staying in the race. Bernie wins California but does poorly in southern states. Biden takes a sizable lead in delegates.

After a few more weeks, Gillibrand fails to get any significant wins and drops out. Bernie hangs tough and takes Ohio, Missouri, and Michigan on March 10, bringing the delegate count into a near tie. The party establishment and major mainstream media are near panic, fearing the Bernie may actually win. Money pours into Biden's campaign chest. Anti-Bernie ads and editorials saturate the airwaves and newspapers. A mysterious online ad campaign accuses Bernie of all kinds of bad stuff.

Biden wins Arizona, Illinois, and Florida on March 17th. Bernie rallies to take Wisconsin on April 7th. Biden wins big in the East Coast states on April 28 and from that point onward, he pulls away as Bernie's hope of winning gradually fades.
  #4  
Old 01-16-2019, 07:01 AM
adaher adaher is offline
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I think it's Biden's to lose as well. He's just too broadly popular. This is not a Lieberman/Giuliani situation where he's ideologically out of step with his party. Progressives like to THINK the party doesn't want Biden, but he is still very much the kind of candidate the non committed progressive voters in the party like.
  #5  
Old 01-16-2019, 08:15 AM
FlikTheBlue FlikTheBlue is offline
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I disagree with both of you, and will stick with my prediction that Biden won’t even run.

ETA. If he does for some reason actually run, he will do well, likely attracting the votes of moderates that I mentioned in my 2nd prediction. I do agree it’s his to lose, but he can’t if he sits out again.

Last edited by FlikTheBlue; 01-16-2019 at 08:18 AM.
  #6  
Old 01-16-2019, 08:22 AM
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Hillary Clinton will push hard to be renominated.

This will horrify many Democrats who think that would be suicidal for the party.

It will get ugly.
  #7  
Old 01-16-2019, 08:24 AM
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1) Who will be the nominee?
I can see it as either Warren or Harris. You want me to pick one? Harris is a charmer, she's younger, she can line up the billionaire donors because she doesn't pick fights with them, and she's superficially a lot like Obama. She is attractive to the party as it has become, if not to the Berniecrats. The one thing that might tip it to her though is that, as a former prosecutor, she might relish the Commander-in-Chief role in a way Dr Warren wouldn't.

2) Which candidate will exceed expectations the most?
Warren. A lot of observers think that she's too much like Hillary; an older white liberal woman from flyover land with an advanced education. But they are very different, and Warren probably has a broader natural base.

3) Which candidate will pull a Rick Perry and go from first tier to out of the race much earlier than expected?
Rick Perry was never really good enough to belong in the first tier. But I don't know, this is a paradoxical question. I don't really expect Booker or Holder have what voters are looking for this time. Nor Biden. Actually, I'll say Biden. I like Joe a lot. He's a meme, he's a legend. But this is really not his year.

4) Which top tier candidate is the most likely to just decide not to run?
I'm going to cheat and put Beto here. He's getting a lot of undeserved hype right now, but honestly, he's not running for Prez, nor should he.

5) Is there any candidate in the field that you wouldn't vote for if they won the nomination?
Too soon to say that, except of course that I would rather die in prison for killing a Clinton than see one of them on the ballot again. The party really needs to stop thinking that swing voters love Bill & Hillary; they really, really don't.
  #8  
Old 01-16-2019, 08:27 AM
adaher adaher is offline
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Originally Posted by FlikTheBlue View Post
I disagree with both of you, and will stick with my prediction that Biden wonít even run.

ETA. If he does for some reason actually run, he will do well, likely attracting the votes of moderates that I mentioned in my 2nd prediction. I do agree itís his to lose, but he canít if he sits out again.
Oh, I agree he may very well not run. That's just what he does. He's had real opportunities to be President at least two times(2004, 2016), and I'd even count 1992, as it was assumed he'd try again but he and other high profile candidates stayed out because they assumed Bush was unbeatable. The years he chose to run, 1988 and 2008, he had no chance and he knew he had no chance. It's a mental block for him or something. He might genuinely be afraid of winning.
  #9  
Old 01-16-2019, 08:29 AM
adaher adaher is offline
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Originally Posted by foolsguinea View Post
2) Which candidate will exceed expectations the most?
Warren. A lot of observers think that she's too much like Hillary; an older white liberal woman from flyover land with an advanced education. But they are very different, and Warren probably has a broader natural base.
If Warren exceeds expectations, she basically wins since she's already considered first tier. Doing well but not winning I think is about what most people expect already from her candidacy.
  #10  
Old 01-16-2019, 09:46 AM
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1) Who will be the nominee?
Julian Castro. He comes across as a good person and is well spoken and calm.

2) Which candidate will exceed expectations the most?
Castro- see #1

3) Which candidate will pull a Rick Perry and go from first tier to out of the race much earlier than expected?
Kamela Harris. I think she's great and would be a good president, but I don't see her as being likable enough to make a long run.

4) Which top tier candidate is the most likely to just decide not to run? Obviously Harris and Warren are in, but Booker, Biden, Beto, and Bernie, the killer Bs are still on the fence.
Bernie Sanders. Too old and occupies the same political space as Warren.

5) Is there any candidate in the field that you wouldn't vote for if they won the nomination? Okay, not a prediction, but still an interesting question.
Not possible. I will never vote for a Republican for any office for the rest of my life and I will not waste my vote on a third party.

Very good questions by the OP, by the way. Not that I agree with his answer to #5..
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:57 AM
Fuzzy_wuzzy Fuzzy_wuzzy is offline
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I predict Biden will not be the nominee. Too much baggage. I think we know the baggage I talk of. Whatever you think of him it's not a good vibe he gives off in certain circumstances. It will effectively be used against him in the primaries.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:04 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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1) Fuck-all if I know. Having been asked to take a WAG, I'm gonna say Kamala Harris.

2) Gillibrand.

3) Biden.

4) Biden. It's gonna be one of these, or the other, for him.

5) No. Even if Trump doesn't run in 2020, even Tulsi fucking Gabbard would be better than whoever gets the GOP nomination. That's how bad the GOP is, as a party.
  #13  
Old 01-16-2019, 10:04 AM
Hari Seldon Hari Seldon is offline
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1. Pass

2. Warren

3. Tulsi Gabbard, although she has probably done it already with her blatant anti-gay stance.

4. Biden. Just too old and tired.

5. Nope. None.
  #14  
Old 01-16-2019, 10:07 AM
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I predict Biden will not be the nominee. Too much baggage. I think we know the baggage I talk of. Whatever you think of him it's not a good vibe he gives off in certain circumstances. It will effectively be used against him in the primaries.
What is it- the phony outrage over plagiarism? Where he gave attribution of a quote maybe 18 out of 20 times he used it but neglected a couple times? Or the phony outrage over a photoshop smear showing him to have Roman hands and Russian fingers?
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:26 AM
adaher adaher is offline
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1) Who will be the nominee?
Julian Castro. He comes across as a good person and is well spoken and calm.

2) Which candidate will exceed expectations the most?
Castro- see #1
That would be huge, because while Castro is likeable he's not even the most popular likeable guy from Texas. Although Beto staying out would make his path to the nomination somewhat clearer.



Quote:
Very good questions by the OP, by the way. Not that I agree with his answer to #5..
Well I'm a right wing guy in the Never Trump category, but my calculations change with him as an incumbent, assuming the next two years isn't disastrous for the country. For all his awfulness, things are going pretty well, and if that continues I can afford to just vote to reelect if I fear the consequences of a very ambitious Democrat looking to change pretty much everything.

But obviously I expect that 99% of Democrats will support whoever the nominee is, and the fact that I'll support most of them too is a sign of where we are.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:30 AM
adaher adaher is offline
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What is it- the phony outrage over plagiarism? Where he gave attribution of a quote maybe 18 out of 20 times he used it but neglected a couple times? Or the phony outrage over a photoshop smear showing him to have Roman hands and Russian fingers?
Biden's got two things going for him that most politicians with baggage don't have:

1) Almost all his baggage is ancient. Really ancient. The one thing that could be considered a legitimate fairly recent problem is his vote for the Iraq war, for which he actually has a good explanation, and shouldn't be much of a problem given that not only did Clinton get the nomination despite that and her continued hawkishness, but most of his opponents don't even have a record on the war at all. To add one more thing on Iraq, Clinton and Edwards and Kerry voted for the war with an eye on their Presidential ambitions. Biden was trying to get a better resolution and was getting no cooperation from either Republians or his more liberal Democratic colleagues, who wanted to oppose the war and didn't want a smarter resolution that would be harder to vote no on.

2) Where most politicians lie, spin, and try to obstruct the people trying to get to the truth, Biden just lays it all out there and you can take his answer or leave it. We're not going to get a drip, drip of new scandal on him throughout the campaign. All his past issues will be litigated early and he'll give you his answers and then you'll all judge him on those answers. He's an open book.

Last edited by adaher; 01-16-2019 at 10:31 AM.
  #17  
Old 01-16-2019, 10:33 AM
Fuzzy_wuzzy Fuzzy_wuzzy is offline
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What is it- the phony outrage over plagiarism? Where he gave attribution of a quote maybe 18 out of 20 times he used it but neglected a couple times? Or the phony outrage over a photoshop smear showing him to have Roman hands and Russian fingers?
His wandering hands. That's the smear that will imo prevent Biden from winning the nomination. We can pretend it's insignificant but the look isn't helpful for a Presidential candidate. Democrat primary voters will almost certainly not nominate him(though I'd never say never).
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:34 AM
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It's not insignificant, but is there malice or sexual intent behind it or is he just one of those guys who likes to be in people's personal space a lot? Seems to me he's just as touchy with men. And isn't the whole point of equality to treat everyone the same?

Looking at pictures that people say are a problem, I'm just not seeing this rise above misdemeanor level. Kissing her on the head? Putting his hands on her hips? hands on shoulders of various people?

Last edited by adaher; 01-16-2019 at 10:37 AM.
  #19  
Old 01-16-2019, 10:43 AM
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IIRC, Biden's never been accused by anyone of groping, assault, harassment, or anything like that. Videos of him hugging families/supporters/colleagues/etc. with creepy music, floating around on the internet, don't count as actual allegations of groping, assault, or harassment.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 01-16-2019 at 10:44 AM.
  #20  
Old 01-16-2019, 10:47 AM
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Well I'm a right wing guy in the Never Trump category, but my calculations change with him as an incumbent, assuming the next two years isn't disastrous for the country. For all his awfulness, things are going pretty well, and if that continues I can afford to just vote to reelect if I fear the consequences of a very ambitious Democrat looking to change pretty much everything.
I think if the FBI is investigating whether the illegitimate occupant of the Oval Office is a Russian agent, then by definition things are not going pretty well.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:51 AM
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I'm talking about conditions in the country. Economic growth is good, although the shutdown risks sending us into recession if it goes on too long, and he's probably the most anti-war President functionally in the post-WWII era. Good economy+ no new wars= reelection in almost all cases, and deservedly so. Now Trump is a special case and doesn't deserve reelection no matter how good things in the country are, but that assumes a Democratic opponent who doesn't want to upset the apple cart. I just don't think " everything is great so I want to change everything" is either smart policy or smart poiltics. That's why I'm genuinely a Biden fan, he's smart enough to know when it's time for change and when it's not, and now is not the time for radical policy change. It is a time for radical POLITICS change though. We need more honesty, more authenticity. Biden has both.
  #22  
Old 01-16-2019, 10:54 AM
Mr. Duality Mr. Duality is offline
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Predicting the 2024 race:

Ocasio-Cortez will run for President and win.
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America- Fuck yeah!
  #23  
Old 01-16-2019, 10:56 AM
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I just don't see the appeal of Biden unless people want somebody who spent almost their whole adult life in DC. He's yesterday's news.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:59 AM
adaher adaher is offline
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I just don't see the appeal of Biden unless people want somebody who spent almost their whole adult life in DC. He's yesterday's news.
That would normally be a handicap, except a) Biden hasn't made a dime off his office, and b) he's always been a straight talker and those types don't tend to be lumped in with the "bad" career politicians.

Typical of me to hijack my own thread, BTW.

Last edited by adaher; 01-16-2019 at 10:59 AM.
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Old 01-16-2019, 11:12 AM
Bijou Drains Bijou Drains is online now
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the last time the Dems nominated a guy who won and who was in DC for a long time was LBJ and of course he was the incumbent. Everybody else for a long time who won was not a DC insider - Carter, Clinton, Obama.

For now I would think Harris wins the nomination .
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Old 01-16-2019, 11:16 AM
adaher adaher is offline
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the last time the Dems nominated a guy who won and who was in DC for a long time was LBJ and of course he was the incumbent. Everybody else for a long time who won was not a DC insider - Carter, Clinton, Obama.

For now I would think Harris wins the nomination .
That's a really good point, but I'd note that except for Obama and Kennedy, even new Senators don't tend to do well. And Obama and Kennedy had remarkable charisma. Harris, whlie not awful, is fairly normal as charisma goes. No Dukakis/Kerry, but no Reagan/Obama either.

But the nature of this race is that the only governor likely to run is Inslee, so the rules aren't the same as usual this time around. And Biden has a lot of that McCain magic around him, which is why McCain is the only Senator to ever be nominated by the GOP since we've all been alive(I think, correct me if I'm wrong)
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Old 01-16-2019, 11:29 AM
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1) Biden - Democrats are too predictable every time. I forecast an Obama 2008 win in 2004 after he was being fawned over at the convention. Of course I have no proof of this, sorry. I don’t know what to say about this, it just seems obvious every time to me on a gut level. Biden will sweep the non-ideologicals and it won’t be close. Too many self-absorbed Bernie variation candidates (Black Bernies, Young Bernies, Female Bernies, Old Brooklyn Bernies) will weaken all candidates going for the ideological vote while the teeming ideological masses will keep funding their vanity campaigns. There will be a lot of mad Democrats at the convention though, which could be a bad sign for what should be an easy general win.

2) Dulaney will do better than expected, which is not saying much. Watch him pull a Santorum if the Dems are not satisfied with other offerings.

3) If Booker hops in he’ll be outed as a lightweight and flop. I could see Warren flop if Bernie hops in.

4) I doubt Booker runs, too plastic for focus groups this time around.

5) I’d like to wait and see the nuts and bolts of these folks’ foreign policies, but fully expect not to hear anything about it. I’m in Bmore, so I cast a meaningless Libertarian vote usually, but I’m willing to make a meaningless Dem vote if the candidate is a decent human being. I won’t cast a meaningless vote for Trump in any case, though I do appreciate the boldness of your take on Trump so far.

Last edited by WillFarnaby; 01-16-2019 at 11:32 AM.
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Old 01-16-2019, 11:32 AM
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Biden's got two things going for him that most politicians with baggage don't have:

1) Almost all his baggage is ancient. Really ancient.
The flip side is, his accomplishments are equally ancient. (Sorry, but few are going to say that Biden was really the architect of all of Obama's accomplishments.)

So yes, people are going to scrutinize his pre-VP record.

One part of that record that, IMHO, will sink him all by itself, is his major role in getting the 2005 bankruptcy law through Congress. It changed bankruptcy law in abominable ways, and this was actually the issue that first brought Warren into the limelight. If Biden runs, he'll run right into her buzzsaw. It will ruin his reputation.
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Old 01-16-2019, 11:35 AM
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Biden represented Delaware. Now while that can get extremely awkward for all Congressional candidates, honesty works best. I'm pretty sure Biden will either defend the merits of the vote, which I think he can(I supported that bill), or say, "I represented my state, and so did everyone else here on this stage. We all have parochial votes we have to explain." What will sink him, and will sink anyone in this cycle, is a politician response. "I've evolved!" Bullshit.
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Old 01-16-2019, 11:49 AM
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I'm guessing Beto O'Rourke will be one of those who start badly, and then go downhill from there.

Quote:
Asked whether the U.S. is capable of change, O'Rourke was again equivocal: "Iím hesitant to answer it," he said, "because I really feel like it deserves its due, and I donít want to give you a ó actually, just selfishly, I donít want a sound bite of it reported, but, yeah, I think thatís the question of the moment: Does this still work? Can an empire like ours with military presence in over 170 countries around the globe, with trading relationships . . . and security agreements in every continent, can it still be managed by the same principles that were set down 230-plus years ago?Ē
Cite.

It would be interesting to find out which of the principles in the Constitution he feels no longer might apply. Perhaps "interesting" is not quite the right term.

Also, he does not seem to keep up with the news very well -
Quote:
Asked about the planned Syria pullout, he responded that there should be "a debate, a discussion, a national conversation about why weíre there, why we fight, why we sacrifice the lives of American service members, why weíre willing to take the lives of others. ... There may be a very good reason to do it. I donít necessarily understand ó and Iíve been a member of Congress for six years. ... We havenít had a meaningful discussion about these wars since 2003.Ē
There has been no meaningful discussion about the United States' military involvements for the last sixteen years? I'm not a member of Congress, but I seem to remember the topic coming up more than once or twice.

Mr. O'Rourke is allegedly off on a solo road trip. I hope his feelings aren't hurt if that trip becomes progressively more and more solo as it goes on.

Regards,
Shodan
  #31  
Old 01-16-2019, 11:53 AM
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Bankruptcy law sounds too obscure to put a dent in Biden’s non-ideological vote.

He was anointed by Saint Obama after this so he must not be all too bad.

“Mr. Biden, your support of this 2005 bankruptcy law shows you are beholden to corporate interests.”

“My time with President Obama taught me many things, first...yadda yadda yadda”


Crony corporatism forgotten.

Last edited by WillFarnaby; 01-16-2019 at 11:55 AM.
  #32  
Old 01-16-2019, 11:55 AM
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1: At this point, if I have to pick one, I'd bet on Sherrod Brown. Establishment candidates usually do better than non-establishment (that's what makes them the Establishment, after all), and as of right now, he's the only establishment candidate who's running. Biden would probably beat him if he runs, but right this moment, I think there's enough uncertainty as to whether Biden runs that I think it still edges to Brown. Previously I thought Hickenlooper, but his name recognition appears to be going nowhere, while Brown's seems to be rising.

2: I think Kamala Harris will most exceed expectations. I think that both her expectations will be depressed and that her outcomes will be improved by the fact that she's a minority woman, and by the fact that she's towards the left end of the field.

3: For entering the race but then quitting early, I'd probably say O'Rourke. He put in a good showing in Texas, but still didn't win, and the press he's getting is all out of proportion to what he's actually got. Maybe four or eight years from now, but I don't think he's ready yet.

4: The only two big names I can see deciding not to run are Sanders and Biden. Sanders I think is less likely to run, largely because Warren already is, and I think he'd be nearly as happy with her in the Oval Office as himself. But Biden, I think, has to be considered the bigger name, so I'll go with him as "the biggest name who doesn't run".

5: There might be some crazy, fifth-tier candidates who I wouldn't vote for, but I won't expend enough brain cells on them to pick out a specific name, because they're crazy, fifth-tier candidates, and the chance of any of them winning the nomination is so low that I'll wait to deal with that question until the unlikely event that it comes up.
  #33  
Old 01-16-2019, 01:30 PM
Fuzzy_wuzzy Fuzzy_wuzzy is offline
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It's not insignificant, but is there malice or sexual intent behind it or is he just one of those guys who likes to be in people's personal space a lot? Seems to me he's just as touchy with men. And isn't the whole point of equality to treat everyone the same?

Looking at pictures that people say are a problem, I'm just not seeing this rise above misdemeanor level. Kissing her on the head? Putting his hands on her hips? hands on shoulders of various people?
We will soon find out how significant it all is if Biden runs. I think I know how it will play out in Democratic primary circles(you can guarantee at least one Dem opponent will covertly push it) but I suppose stranger things have happened than Biden being able to overcome this stuff.

Last edited by Fuzzy_wuzzy; 01-16-2019 at 01:31 PM.
  #34  
Old 01-16-2019, 01:56 PM
Dallas Jones Dallas Jones is offline
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A crowded field of interesting young men and women with potential for change. A very interesting primary season.

Of course the established party will have nothing to do with change or youth. The fight to retain or replace Pelosi was just a preview. The party went with the old people in power.

They drop out one by one because none can garner the full support of the party. And then you end up with the old white guy that the entrenched party approves, Joe Biden. He runs on the past playbook, sort of like Hillary, and loses to Trump. Biden will not out-Trump Trump. Political gaffs don't matter anymore, and Biden is full of them, but he can't keep up with Trump.

Sorry, but that is they way I see it playing out. The resistance to replacing Pelosi just shows that even though a grass roots desire for change in the party is very real, it just can't be done yet.

Last edited by Dallas Jones; 01-16-2019 at 01:59 PM.
  #35  
Old 01-16-2019, 03:45 PM
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The resistance to replacing Pelosi isn't because she's been in the job for a long time. Both the resistance to replacing her and her being in the job for a long time are because she's very good at it.
  #36  
Old 01-16-2019, 08:30 PM
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Well I'm a right wing guy in the Never Trump category, but my calculations change with him as an incumbent, assuming the next two years isn't disastrous for the country. For all his awfulness, things are going pretty well, and if that continues I can afford to just vote to reelect if I fear the consequences of a very ambitious Democrat looking to change pretty much everything.
Oh, I forgot to say this after the OP! Thanks for reminding me!

Are you using some time-travel device to post from sometime before AD 2019? Because no. Trump has shut down the federal government and is threatening to leave it there. The damage is working up to "cause a depression" bad. The government isn't paying the Coast Guard.

If you think Kirsten Gillibrand, for crying out loud, is more radical or more dangerous than Trump, you aren't keeping up with events. That's like saying you can't trust Warren "return to normalcy" Harding not to be a dangerous radical, so you'll stick with...Mikhail Bakunin.

Edit: If that's too historical and obscure for anyone, think of it like passing on Dwight Eisenhower in favor of, I don't know, Thanos.

Last edited by foolsguinea; 01-16-2019 at 08:33 PM.
  #37  
Old 01-16-2019, 08:38 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is online now
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The appeal of Biden is that he has name recognition, and because he is a white male he doesn't alienate a lot of swing voters who aren't comfortable voting for a non-white or female candidate (like it or not). Plus he has some credibility with high school educated whites.

But he has his negatives. The bankruptcy law, Iraq war, Anita Hill.

However I don't know how well he would govern. It really doesn't matter I guess, the legislature is where actual laws are written. The president just signs the law.

Would America really be any different if Bernie won in 2020 instead of Biden? It seems like the end results would pretty much be the same no matter which one won.
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  #38  
Old 01-16-2019, 08:43 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is online now
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the last time the Dems nominated a guy who won and who was in DC for a long time was LBJ and of course he was the incumbent. Everybody else for a long time who won was not a DC insider - Carter, Clinton, Obama.

For now I would think Harris wins the nomination .
And LBJ was far and away the most productive president in the last 60 years. Of course he also had a huge majority in congress.
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  #39  
Old 01-17-2019, 05:45 AM
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If I were American:

1 - Castro. Dynamic, charismatic. Biden is the Buggins' Turn candidate. That system worked badly for the Republicans.

2 - No idea.

3 - Warren, Harris. Placed in the light of publicity they will wither.

4 - Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke.

5 - No idea.

Wild card: Cortez. If she storms out of the gate in Washington she might just catch a wave. The hype train worked for Trump; it might work for her.
  #40  
Old 01-17-2019, 06:23 AM
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Wild card: Cortez. If she storms out of the gate in Washington she might just catch a wave. The hype train worked for Trump; it might work for her.
She literally can't. There are very few actual criteria for becoming president but one is that you have to be at least 35. AOC is only 29 now. She could in theory squeak in for 2024 (she would turn 35 in October 2024) but 2020 is out of the question.
  #41  
Old 01-17-2019, 11:18 AM
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Bankruptcy law sounds too obscure to put a dent in Bidenís non-ideological vote.

He was anointed by Saint Obama after this so he must not be all too bad.

ďMr. Biden, your support of this 2005 bankruptcy law shows you are beholden to corporate interests.Ē

ďMy time with President Obama taught me many things, first...yadda yadda yaddaĒ


Crony corporatism forgotten.
Yeah, you're right - that law didn't affect any actual people. Nevermind.
  #42  
Old 01-17-2019, 02:29 PM
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The appeal of Biden is that he has name recognition, and because he is a white male he doesn't alienate a lot of swing voters who aren't comfortable voting for a non-white or female candidate (like it or not). Plus he has some credibility with high school educated whites.

But he has his negatives. The bankruptcy law, Iraq war, Anita Hill.

However I don't know how well he would govern. It really doesn't matter I guess, the legislature is where actual laws are written. The president just signs the law.

Would America really be any different if Bernie won in 2020 instead of Biden? It seems like the end results would pretty much be the same no matter which one won.
I think there would be a difference. Bernie would be a lot more likely to insist on far left policy, which Congress is not going to pass no matter how well the Democrats do in 2020. Biden would be a lot more likely to compromise with moderate Democrats to get things done, even of those things are slightly left leaning moderate policies rather than a far left wish list. It's actually kind of similar to how Republicans might have gotten more done by this point had someone like Jeb won than they have with Trump.
  #43  
Old 01-17-2019, 04:06 PM
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1) Who will be the nominee? Yes, of course it's early, but think of it like trying to predict a Super Bowl winner in the preseason. Just do it.

2) Which candidate will exceed expectations the most? There's often someone who does better than expected in a multi candidate field.

3) Which candidate will pull a Rick Perry and go from first tier to out of the race much earlier than expected?

4) Which top tier candidate is the most likely to just decide not to run? Obviously Harris and Warren are in, but Booker, Biden, Beto, and Bernie, the killer Bs are still on the fence.

5) Is there any candidate in the field that you wouldn't vote for if they won the nomination? Okay, not a prediction, but still an interesting question.
1. My gut says Bernie Sanders stays in it to win it - and after what happened in 2016, the college students and recent graduates will come out in force to vote for him; between that and the new "superdelegates can't vote on the first ballot" rule, that should be enough to get him the nomination.

2. Julian Castro, especially if he gets support from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

3. Kamala Harris - nobody really knows who she is. I have a feeling somebody is going to point out that, as Attorney General of California, she pretty much refused to defend the state's own Constitution (when Proposition 8 was declared illegal, she didn't appeal to the Supreme Court).
"Who knew who Bill Clinton or Barack Obama were?" They both gave keynote speeches at Democratic National Conventions.
"Who knew who Jimmy Carter was?" Exactly...

4. Who are the "top tier candidates"? I was going to say that Elizabeth Warren will drop out when Bernie Sanders makes it clear he's running, as they don't want to divide the progressive delegates, but the question asks who won't enter the race at all, and she already has an "exploratory committee."

5. To be honest, if Trump gets the Republican nomination, I can't say for sure that any viable Democratic nominee would be off of my list.
  #44  
Old 01-17-2019, 08:01 PM
Ancient Erudite Ancient Erudite is offline
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1) Who will be the nominee? Yes, of course it's early, but think of it like trying to predict a Super Bowl winner in the preseason. Just do it.

2) Which candidate will exceed expectations the most? There's often someone who does better than expected in a multi candidate field.

3) Which candidate will pull a Rick Perry and go from first tier to out of the race much earlier than expected?

4) Which top tier candidate is the most likely to just decide not to run? Obviously Harris and Warren are in, but Booker, Biden, Beto, and Bernie, the killer Bs are still on the fence.

5) Is there any candidate in the field that you wouldn't vote for if they won the nomination? Okay, not a prediction, but still an interesting question.

My answers:

1 - Joe Biden. He's the establishment guy and has Obama's backing, plus the DNC's backing. Joe's too old, and IMO will not beat Donald Trump but if I had to back a horse in this very large field lacking a true favorite, he would be it.

2 ) Mike Bloomberg or Mitch Landrieu. I think Bloomberg is best equipped to beat Trump. I think Landrieu's personality will shine on television.

3 ) Warren I think will fizzle out early. She's just won't play in the midwest and can't take a political punch.

4 ) None of the above, everyone is going to at least dip their toes into the pool.

5 ) Robert Francis A.K.A Beto, Warren and Harris.
  #45  
Old 01-17-2019, 08:11 PM
Ancient Erudite Ancient Erudite is offline
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Predicting the 2024 race:

Ocasio-Cortez will run for President and win.
You can get 1,000 to 1 on that. Dem's are already telling Cortez to tone it down. She's not progressive, she's a big time solicists views and a compete lack of understanding on how things work.

Last edited by Ancient Erudite; 01-17-2019 at 08:12 PM.
  #46  
Old 01-17-2019, 09:06 PM
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1. Kamala Harris. She can appeal to youth and minorities, and hasn't burned bridges with either the Hillary or Bernie wings of the party.

2. Stacy Abrams, if she runs. She could compete with Harris for the minority vote and draw the more diversity-minded progressives away from Bernie. Also, Julian Castro.

3. Joe Biden. He doesn't appeal to the Bernie crowd, so he has to try to rebuild the Hillary coalition of minorities and moderates. But I think he'll find that it's one thing to get minorities to choose you over Bernie Sanders and a whole other thing to get them to choose you over actual minorities. Right now most polls have he and Sanders tied for the lead with approximately 25% each. My guess is Biden's support dries up as people, particularly minorities, get more informed about other candidates, and that Bernie keeps all those of us who would vote for him now, doesn't pick up anyone else, and finishes with 25%.

Also, Elizabeth Warren is not going anywhere, probably. The "elderly white progressive from New England" lane is pretty well occupied. There aren't more than a handful of voters who like Sanders' politics but not Sanders himself. Other than that, who does she appeal to? It's a very bad sign for her that she's currently in third place in the polls in Massachusetts. If the voters who know her best aren't enthusiastic...

4. Of the "killer B's", I would be amazed at this point if Biden, Sanders or Booker didn't run. Beto probably will too; he could run for Senate again in 2020, but if he couldn't win in 2018 against Ted Cruz, when is he going to win in Texas? (that's a criticism of Texas, not of Beto). Another loss won't help his credibility, so if he wants to run, the time is probably now. I certainly would if I were him, I think he'd have an excellent shot.

5. Oh Hell No. Not for any conceivably realistic definition of "the field". If it's, like, Tulsi Gabbard or Oprah, I might have to get drunk before entering the voting booth, but I'd do it.
  #47  
Old 01-17-2019, 09:16 PM
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However...

The Democratic primaries are mostly proportional representation, which almost guarantees a brokered convention if there are more than two serious candidates. This sure seems more likely than not this time around. This scenario would favor candidates who might have won a relatively small share of delegates, but who are at least acceptable to most of the Party. So that could be a realistic path to victory for Biden or Warren.
  #48  
Old 01-17-2019, 09:56 PM
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I'm not at all certain that the nominee will be Kamala Harris specifically, but it will probably be a minority, probably under 60, and definitely a person who can position themselves in that ideological sweet spot midway between Clinton and Sanders.
  #49  
Old 01-18-2019, 06:32 AM
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You can get 1,000 to 1 on that. Dem's are already telling Cortez to tone it down. She's not progressive, she's a big time solicists views and a compete lack of understanding on how things work.
(bolding mine)

She transgresses the rules of grammar? She doesn't believe that anything exists outside her own mind?
  #50  
Old 01-18-2019, 02:23 PM
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What's wrong with being a solicitor?
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