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  #601  
Old 03-11-2020, 09:55 PM
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Here in NC all public universities are now only doing classes online, all in person classes are cancelled. Duke also did the same , not sure about other private universities here like Wake Forest, Davidson, Elon, etc.

Not worried much myself , I am lucky that I work at home.

Last edited by Bijou Drains; 03-11-2020 at 09:55 PM.
  #602  
Old 03-11-2020, 09:57 PM
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Ha, we can always hope! We have a trip to Australia planned for late June. Our insurance doesn't reimburse us if we cancel just because we're worried, so we're just going to hold tight until we get a lot closer and hope for the best. Either all hell will have broken out by then or we're headed to Sydney.
My son and I have tickets to London for his Spring Break in 9 days. Europe travel restrictions don't apply to the UK so far, but I'm a bit concerned, not so much about getting sick, but about getting quarantined in London or Dallas (our port of entry) causing him to miss the start of his final quarter of college.

The airline, BA, is only offering free changes for new bookings, and ours are from December, so rescheduling would be very costly, as would cancellation of non-refundable tickets. We're lucky that we can afford the loss of a couple thousand dollars, but I was really looking forward to spending the time with my son. On the plus side, our hotel reservation is cancellable, so the airfare is the only potential loss.

We're waiting until Sunday to make the final decision on changing/cancelling the trip.
  #603  
Old 03-11-2020, 10:16 PM
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I'm still not particularly worried about the disease itself.

But I'm starting to get worried about the response to the disease.
It's both.

You don't want panic, but you absolutely want to get ahead of this disease. It's better to overreact than to fail to react and have people not trust the information they're getting from official sources.
  #604  
Old 03-11-2020, 10:20 PM
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One thing you can be sure of: while we're not testing, the virus is spreading. It doesn't care whether we're manipulating the numbers for political purposes; it's making people mildly ill, allowing them to spread the disease in clusters, and making some people extremely ill, and even killing them. And this is repeating itself over and over and over again, in airports, in bus stations, in train stations, in stadiums, movie theaters, concert halls, schools, and other public gatherings large or small.
  #605  
Old 03-12-2020, 01:39 AM
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COVID concerns? This has been mentioned somewhere but I'll focus again on SPRING BREAK. Paid events can be and are cancelled. No-admission party towns aren't so easy to close down. If transport is restricted to offshore orgy sites, US partiers will stream to domestic targets by road. Will we see roadblocks around Santa Cruz and Daytona? Many of those partiers will be young and healthy but the staffs serving them won't be so. I look for a huge explosion of cases after Easter.
  #606  
Old 03-12-2020, 07:37 AM
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I'm now beginning to see some encouraging signs. It's not because of any response from the White House; it's coming from institutions, organizations, and local governments. We're fortunate that they're starting to do the job that the federal government has not.

Re: Spring break, more and more schools are extending spring break and moving to online instruction, so the word is getting out that social distancing is *the* best option right now.
  #607  
Old 03-12-2020, 09:35 AM
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I'm concerned that I may not be able to get rid of this earworm.

Look out all of you big strong men
Coronavirus is back again
We got ourselves in a terrible jam
'cause a virus spread from old Wuhan
So put on your masks, don't shake hands
A pandemic's stalking the land

And it's 1, 2, 3, what are we coughing for
Don't tell me, I feel real blue
Next stop's the I.C.U.
And it's 4, 5, 6, open up the pearly gates
There ain't no time to wonder why
We all gonna die
  #608  
Old 03-17-2020, 03:53 AM
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Looking back on when I started this thread, it’s sure changed many people’s concern. Here we are trying to get back to the USA! Today!
  #609  
Old 03-17-2020, 10:43 AM
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COVID concerns? This has been mentioned somewhere but I'll focus again on SPRING BREAK. Paid events can be and are cancelled. No-admission party towns aren't so easy to close down. If transport is restricted to offshore orgy sites, US partiers will stream to domestic targets by road. Will we see roadblocks around Santa Cruz and Daytona? Many of those partiers will be young and healthy but the staffs serving them won't be so. I look for a huge explosion of cases after Easter.
I'd agree with this sentiment regarding Spring Break - I'm really shocked how many of my friends and neighbors are going on their vacations, driving down to Florida, hitting up restaurants and bars and running in 5ks - and that the 5ks are still happening, for that matter. A few minutes ago, a friend posted a picture on facebook of her in a crowd of people running a St. Patrick's Day race. Yet another friend was shocked when they were turned back in the LA airport on their way to a vacation in Australia. They were a little outraged that they'd be expected to self-quarantine for 14 days.

Anyway, there's a reason that we're all being asked to stay home. Spreading that shit all over creation, saying, "Well, I'm clean! I wash my hands! We're all gonna get it anyway, and we shouldn't stop living our lives," is kinda ridiculous.
  #610  
Old 03-17-2020, 01:12 PM
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I have a friend who is much more worried, about me, than I am. She is in her mid-50's, single, and self-isolating because she went on a trip to a conference a couple of weeks ago and now regrets it (she was giving a talk there). I am 70 and my husband is 72 and we are both functioning adults, but she has informed me that she is going to be checking on me via text every day, asking how I am and if I have food. As if we are both going to fall over and be unable to move, without warning, at the same time, so that only her intervention will save us.

I appreciate the concern, I guess, but it's simply not realistic. She has a centenarian neighbor and friend, this kind of checking in would be appropriate for her. I know 70 and 72 sounds old to a lot of people, but it really isn't. And if one or both of us gets taken ill, it's not her I'm going to call, I'm going to get medical help.

I attribute this behavior on her part to her need to always be ahead of the curve in whatever people "in the know" are doing. I'm not going to tell her my opinion of her behavior, because most of the time I enjoy her company, so I will answer her texts briefly as and when I see them. But still, there aren't enough rolleyes.

This post may not be precisely relevant to this thread, but I had to vent somewhere.
  #611  
Old 03-17-2020, 01:19 PM
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I attribute this behavior on her part to her need to always be ahead of the curve in whatever people "in the know" are doing.
I think the need to just do something is a major motivator. People feel helpless, so they try to find anything they have some control over, whether it's needed or not.
  #612  
Old 03-17-2020, 02:25 PM
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CFR in Japan is so far about 2.8%.

CFR in South Korea about 0.6%.

What do you hypothesize is the most likely reason for the difference in the CFRs? Is medical care far superior in South Korea? Are South Koreans in general much healthier with less chronic disease?
At the time this was posted I think something like 85% of the cases in Korea had been identified in the previous 2 weeks, so it's not surprising that the CFR was so low. It often takes weeks to die from this. There are currently 8320 confirmed cases and 81 deaths for a CFR of just under 1%.

Another huge factor you neglected is the age distribution of the coronavirus outbreak in Korea. Patient 31 infected several members of the Shincheonji cult, which apparently is mostly young people. As a result there are now more Koreans in their 20s who have tested positive for the virus than there are people over 60:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-cases-by-age/
  #613  
Old 03-17-2020, 05:10 PM
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It's fun to scroll through from the beginning to the end of this thread.

Back when Wuhan was beginning to be in the news, my husband bought two gallons of hand sanitizer and a blood oxygen tester (the finger thing). He said it was going to be much much worse than anyone was imagining, in the US. We thought he was being paranoid.
  #614  
Old 03-17-2020, 10:02 PM
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I was able to order a blood oxygen thing on-line yesterday. All the popular vendors still have them. (When I was unable to find hand sanitizer a week ago, I noticed a stack of them in the drug store, too, but didn't think to buy one then.)

I kinda wish I'd bought that large bottle of 95% rubbing alcohol I put back on the shelves, but I don't really use hand sanitizer at home. We have a lot of soap.
  #615  
Old 03-18-2020, 10:18 PM
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If the numbers are consistant, Italy will surpass China in total deaths tomorrow (19-Mar-2020)
  #616  
Old 03-18-2020, 10:44 PM
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If the numbers are consistant, Italy will surpass China in total deaths tomorrow (19-Mar-2020)
In officially reported total deaths. Obviously in the real world they are still way behind China and Iran.

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  #617  
Old 03-21-2020, 09:36 PM
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Not really concerned now thanks to my Subaru first aid kit https://www.subarupartspros.com/sku/soa868v9501.html I feel like this would help me today as I step outside my house to get some supplies hahahaha
  #618  
Old 03-21-2020, 10:54 PM
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At the time this was posted I think something like 85% of the cases in Korea had been identified in the previous 2 weeks, so it's not surprising that the CFR was so low. It often takes weeks to die from this. There are currently 8320 confirmed cases and 81 deaths for a CFR of just under 1%.

Another huge factor you neglected is the age distribution of the coronavirus outbreak in Korea. Patient 31 infected several members of the Shincheonji cult, which apparently is mostly young people. As a result there are now more Koreans in their 20s who have tested positive for the virus than there are people over 60
Also of course Korea is leading the world in terms of testing. If Covid has a large proportion of mild cases then they are best placed to detect that and have a corresponding low CFR.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shmendrik
In officially reported total deaths. Obviously in the real world they are still way behind China and Iran.
You know that for a fact?

Let me tell you what it's like living in China right now: moving back to normal every day. Most restaurants, bars and gyms have reopened (albeit with things like occupancy restrictions e.g. max 60 people in the gym at one time).
Even some state-owned public places like museums have reopened. The temporary hospitals have closed.

So what is the reality?
Is it that there are still lots of cases, but the government has suspended measures to contain the virus regardless? Or is it that it was much more severe than the official figures but had a cliff-face dropoff in cases?
  #619  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:06 PM
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Also of course Korea is leading the world in terms of testing. If Covid has a large proportion of mild cases then they are best placed to detect that and have a corresponding low CFR.



You know that for a fact?

Let me tell you what it's like living in China right now: moving back to normal every day. Most restaurants, bars and gyms have reopened (albeit with things like occupancy restrictions e.g. max 60 people in the gym at one time).
Even some state-owned public places like museums have reopened. The temporary hospitals have closed.

So what is the reality?
Is it that there are still lots of cases, but the government has suspended measures to contain the virus regardless? Or is it that it was much more severe than the official figures but had a cliff-face dropoff in cases?
The worry is what happens in 5 to 6 weeks.

Are higher risk individuals maintaining social distance protocols? Are people still vigilant about self quarantine if sick? The odds that it won’t come back as controls are eased are very low. Can they control the curve as it does?
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  #620  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:10 PM
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So what is the reality?
Is it that there are still lots of cases, but the government has suspended measures to contain the virus regardless? Or is it that it was much more severe than the official figures but had a cliff-face dropoff in cases?
Maybe move the sick to wherever the Uighar are these days?
  #621  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:10 PM
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Also of course Korea is leading the world in terms of testing. If Covid has a large proportion of mild cases then they are best placed to detect that and have a corresponding low CFR.







You know that for a fact?


...

Or is it that it was much more severe than the official figures but had a cliff-face dropoff in cases?
Yes. A complete lockdown will stop transmission of the virus whether your baseline number of cases is 10,000 or 1 million. There are multiple reliable reports from China that the government was under counting cases and deaths in Wuhan. There are videos showing stacks of bodies being transported in minibuses at a time that the claimed death rate was several dozen per day, in a city of 10 million.

When Dr Li Wenliang died, the Chinese government (at whatever level) had the hospital make a statement saying he hadn't died, which was itself reversed a few hours later. This was all reported on reliable international news sources such as the BBC, not conspiracy theory websites. I'm not sure why anyone would trust official figures coming from China.

As far as Iran goes, there is satellite evidence showing mass graves being dug in Qom around the time they reported their 1st two deaths.

Last edited by Shmendrik; 03-21-2020 at 11:10 PM.
  #622  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:47 PM
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Maybe move the sick to wherever the Uighar are these days?
What's happening with the uighar is terrible, and I have said so here before. I'm not some apologist for the chinese government.
But it's nothing to do with the topic at hand.
  #623  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:57 PM
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Yes. A complete lockdown will stop transmission of the virus whether your baseline number of cases is 10,000 or 1 million. There are multiple reliable reports from China that the government was under counting cases and deaths in Wuhan. There are videos showing stacks of bodies being transported in minibuses at a time that the claimed death rate was several dozen per day, in a city of 10 million.

When Dr Li Wenliang died, the Chinese government (at whatever level) had the hospital make a statement saying he hadn't died, which was itself reversed a few hours later. This was all reported on reliable international news sources such as the BBC, not conspiracy theory websites. I'm not sure why anyone would trust official figures coming from China.
Let's be clear: I don't trust the Chinese government at all, especially when it comes to lies by omission.

However, it's not possible to take the general observation that the government lies to make specific inferences. It's not some riddle where China must answer every question with a lie; obviously the majority of the time, as a practical matter, the truth is necessary.

A lot of information is being shared on social media of who has been diagnosed, from what residential building and with photos of the people being tested and/or taken to hospital.
So...what is even the theory here? That they are allowing this information to only be shared for a subset of cases? And at the same time relaxing the containment rules? For what purpose? It doesn't even make sense.

If China is saying deaths are X thousand, and someone wants to assert the true deaths are much more, I would want to see some supporting evidence or at least a good argument. "The Chinese government is not to be trusted" is insufficient in itself.
  #624  
Old 03-22-2020, 01:33 AM
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A lot of information is being shared on social media of who has been diagnosed, from what residential building and with photos of the people being tested and/or taken to hospital.

So...what is even the theory here? That they are allowing this information to only be shared for a subset of cases? And at the same time relaxing the containment rules? For what purpose? It doesn't even make sense.



If China is saying deaths are X thousand, and someone wants to assert the true deaths are much more, I would want to see some supporting evidence or at least a good argument. "The Chinese government is not to be trusted" is insufficient in itself.

The theory is that things got a lot worse in Wuhan before they got better. The evidence is that there were videos showing mass disease and death at a time when the official numbers were not concordant with that, which imply the numbers were being greatly underreported.

Last edited by Shmendrik; 03-22-2020 at 01:33 AM.
  #625  
Old 03-22-2020, 08:22 AM
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The theory is that things got a lot worse in Wuhan before they got better. The evidence is that there were videos showing mass disease and death at a time when the official numbers were not concordant with that, which imply the numbers were being greatly underreported.
Yeah, but even the Chinese government is admitting that the case count underestimates the severity of the disease, not for any malicious reason, but simply because it's impossible to track every case in the middle of a pandemic. In China, there were stories of people dying suddenly and their bodies being burnt to prevent transmission where we'll never know if they died of COVID 19 or a more mundane causes (remember, once you're over 65, you have about a 2+% chance of dying every year and there's 5.5 million people in Hubei over 65 so you'd expect 40+K old people dying anyway during the lockdown, many of them with generic pneumonia/flu like symptoms).

Italy is reporting the exact same thing and it's rich hearing this accusation from the US where the defining feature of the pandemic response has been a lack of testing. If you go on American social media, all you hear are stories of people coming down with a mysterious flu like illness a month ago, being denied testing and now they're better.

China doesn't really lie for the outside world, it's mainly lying to control the Chinese people. China needs to convince people to go back to work and not be afraid which means they need to be 100% sure the virus is eliminated before that happens because everyone is on edge and super jumpy about another outbreak forming. Part of why they're sending so much aid overseas is to prove to the Chinese people that there are already enough masks/ventilators domestically to deal with the remaining cases that China truly can afford to give away supplies now.
  #626  
Old 03-22-2020, 08:52 AM
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There are videos showing stacks of bodies being transported in minibuses at a time that the claimed death rate was several dozen per day, in a city of 10 million.
Yeah, that was because the once the lockdown started, official policy was all bodies were to be burnt immediately to prevent risk of transmission. Traditional Chinese funeral rites calls for Shou Ling (守灵) which is somewhat akin to the Jewish tradition of sitting Shiva where someone is sitting beside the corpse 24 hours a day for 3 days. This is, understandably, not a great practice in the middle of a pandemic. China, like all countries, had a significant share of people who didn't take the virus seriously in the early days and funeral rites are an important part of any culture so you had people lots of people practicing 守灵 in secret in defiance of the government and then getting sick. That's why they had to crack down so hard and enforce the burning of all bodies, even if the deceased died of a broken leg or something.

Also, the early days of quarantine were a mess and so you had a spike in deaths from things like people not being able to get their cancer medicines or the elderly suffering a fall in their apartment alone and not having anyone to call for help. You also had a ton of homeless people which, to this day, we're still not quite clear what happened to them since officially homelessness, is an uncomfortable topic that the Chinese Do Not Speak About in polite society.

None of this was hidden from the Chinese people, none of this was some huge revelation that happened after the lockdown was lifted. It's just that selective images from China were taken by Western media and the context was carefully stripped to make it seem way more sensationalist than it was.

Last edited by Shalmanese; 03-22-2020 at 08:53 AM.
  #627  
Old 03-23-2020, 09:51 AM
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Also of course Korea is leading the world in terms of testing. If Covid has a large proportion of mild cases then they are best placed to detect that and have a corresponding low CFR.
Korea's CFR isn't low, despite having a large percentage of twentysomethings from the Shincheonji cult in their infected population. Even though Korea's outbreak has basically stabilized, the death toll continues to rise as it can take up to 6-8 weeks for COVID-19 to kill you. There have been more than 30 additional deaths in the past week, bringing the CFR to over 1.2%.

Based on this, it's looking like the US CFR could end up being several percent.
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Old 03-23-2020, 11:22 AM
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I hope y'all are concerned enough to spare a couple of minutes to let your elected representatives and senators know how you think they're doing.
  #629  
Old 03-23-2020, 11:58 AM
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A little more concerned, now that a friend of mine in the city is in the hospital. He's tested positive for the virus and has pneumonia. First time this has affected me directly, and I expect I'll hear of other stricken friends when this is over.
  #630  
Old 03-23-2020, 01:26 PM
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The theory is that things got a lot worse in Wuhan before they got better. The evidence is that there were videos showing mass disease and death at a time when the official numbers were not concordant with that, which imply the numbers were being greatly underreported.
I expect the numbers are vastly underreported everywhere. In China the government could cook the books. In the US they simply aren't testing people. It all results in an undercount.
  #631  
Old 04-17-2020, 01:38 PM
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Not really concerned now thanks to my Subaru first aid kit https://www.subarupartspros.com/sku/soa868v9501.html I feel like this would help me today as I step outside my house to get some supplies hahahaha
I like it, Just add ppe and you’re all set.

On sale right now too 9.99!
  #632  
Old 04-17-2020, 09:38 PM
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Not so concerned personally.
I am single and naturally antisocial. But I am a 63 year old smoker. So if I do get it, I am likely dead. I can distance quite well at home and at work. I can do a lot to avoid it.

I am concerned for others that i know. They will have a harder time avoiding it.

It is also possible that if only 2 to 3 people where I work, were to die from this. The whole operation could end. They are key to the business being able to get contracts.
  #633  
Old 04-18-2020, 01:47 PM
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Golly, this thread has aged poorly.
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  #634  
Old 04-18-2020, 02:17 PM
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Golly, this thread has aged poorly.
Yeah, it is kind of hilarious now to go back and read the first few dozen posts. It is like Lincoln live-tweeting Our American Cousin.
  #635  
Old 04-18-2020, 10:59 PM
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Yeah, it is kind of hilarious now to go back and read the first few dozen posts. It is like Lincoln live-tweeting Our American Cousin.
Yeah and I hold my hand up that I was one of the people who really underestimated where this would go.

It's just..there was a point where the numbers were coming down in China, and the number of cases outside China was (at least thought to be) trivial, so it really looked like containment was likely.

Then it exploded everywhere. Didn't see it coming.
  #636  
Old 04-18-2020, 11:41 PM
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That was like a few days.
  #637  
Old 04-19-2020, 12:02 AM
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Yeah and I hold my hand up that I was one of the people who really underestimated where this would go.

It's just..there was a point where the numbers were coming down in China, and the number of cases outside China was (at least thought to be) trivial, so it really looked like containment was likely.

Then it exploded everywhere. Didn't see it coming.
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That was like a few days.

When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn’t

Quote:
Originally Posted by Washington Post
There’s an old brain teaser that goes like this: You have a pond of a certain size, and upon that pond, a single lily pad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces once a day, so that on day two, you have two lily pads. On day three, you have four, and so on.

Now the teaser. “If it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?”

The answer is 47 days. Moreover, at day 40, you’ll barely know the lily pads are there.

That grim math explains why so many people — including me — are worried about the novel coronavirus, which causes a disease known as covid-19. And why so many other people think we are panicking over nothing.
This article came out on March 10, and it really resonated with me. I forwarded it to everyone I knew.

Until then, we ate out a lot (restaurants and takeout), and didn't have a lot of food in the house. Within the next two days (March 11-12), we bought enough groceries for a month. That's also when we started social distancing.

With that said, I can't say I was in any way prescient before this. I wasn't particularly worried until right around the time this article came out. Until then, I'd spent the winter traveling all over North America on ski trips.

Last edited by robby; 04-19-2020 at 12:03 AM.
  #638  
Old 04-19-2020, 01:04 AM
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When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn’t
Which is true...but it's not like this is the first thing that has grown exponentially since Spanish flu; it's just that others peaked long before this point.

For sure, everybody should have prepared for the worst case, but I don't blame anyone for being surprised by its sudden acceleration in early March (IIRC). I certainly was.
  #639  
Old 04-19-2020, 01:50 AM
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Here is a video which does an great job of explaining exponential increases.

https://youtu.be/e02eiX866N4
  #640  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:20 AM
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Here is a video which does an great job of explaining exponential increases.

https://youtu.be/e02eiX866N4
Nice video. Interesting that it uses similar language at the end as the Washington Post article I linked to.
Quote:
It was never going to seem that bad...until it was.

Incidentally, I posted a link to that same Washington Post article here last month, and commented that:

Quote:
Originally Posted by robby View Post
  • The mortality rate for COVID-19 is at least an order of magnitude greater than that of influenza.
  • The number of cases of COVID-19 are increasing exponentially.
Note that "exponentially" is not a synonym for "a lot." It's a mathematical term.

When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn’t

The problem isn't the current number of cases. It's how many cases we will have in a few weeks or months.

More detail here:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
  #641  
Old 04-22-2020, 01:46 PM
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I’ll take my stab at a WAG to your question. Actual deaths from it globally IF it becomes a pandemic with no fast drop in virulence might reach the equal of a mild influenza season, 250 to 300K. (Bad influenza season is over 650K global deaths.) In the US alone maybe 10 to 15K. Identified as such during the season much less though. It will need post hoc analysis. I hope for much less as the family of virus evolves fast and less virulent versions will outcompete more virulent ones.
Nailed it.

Oh wait, you missed by a mile. There are already 3X the number of deaths in the US than the upper bound of your estimate range and we're only in April. The fatality rate hasn't peaked yet, the rate of decline will be far slower than the ramp up, and it's likely that we'll see another wave of Covid-19 deaths later this year.

This prediction ranks right up there with the "Self-driving cars are still decades away" prediction made here a few years ago.
  #642  
Old 04-22-2020, 07:30 PM
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Nailed it.

Oh wait, you missed by a mile. There are already 3X the number of deaths in the US than the upper bound of your estimate range and we're only in April. The fatality rate hasn't peaked yet, the rate of decline will be far slower than the ramp up, and it's likely that we'll see another wave of Covid-19 deaths later this year.

This prediction ranks right up there with the "Self-driving cars are still decades away" prediction made here a few years ago.


True it is, to date, shaping up to be more like a very compressed slightly worse than bad influenza season level event, not a mild one. Still for a stab at a WAG made in Feb, also taking the WAG based on the data had at the time of a true IFR of less than 0.5% possibly under 0.3%, and given the context of various experts making predictions much later flipping from best case 100 to 200K in the US to 60K within weeks, I'll stand by that as a pretty good stabbed at WAG.

Especially in contrast to the sorts of predictions others were confidently sure of ....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Surreal
... 1-2 million US deaths and 30-50 million deaths worldwide.
Currently a flattening U.S curve at just under 47K and globally about 184K.

Of course there is lots yet to happen but I'll stand by that if my early days WAG of 10-15K US deaths and 250 to 300K globally ends up considered as "missed by a mile", then 1-2 million US and 30 to 40 million deaths globally will relatively be missing by 100 miles or more!

Do you still think your assessment then is the more reasonable one?

I especially stand by my statement then that this virus is not going to cause societal meltdown. I've not hoarded canned goods, and have not bought a gun, and still feel no need to do either!

The essence of my belief then was a hypothesis that there were many more infections than were being counted as cases, and a desire from those days on to get some handle on how many there actually were as a critical piece of information. That hypothesis has NOT yet been falsified.
  #643  
Old 04-22-2020, 08:43 PM
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Especially in contrast to the sorts of predictions others were confidently sure of .... Currently a flattening U.S curve at just under 47K and globally about 184K.
As expected a completely dishonest selectively edited quote from you. Here's what I actually posted:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Surreal View Post
Harvard's Marc Lipsitch expects that 40-70% of the world's population will become infected this year, which is actually somewhat conservative because it now appears that the reproductive number R0 is somewhere between 2 and 3 (80-90% infection rate). COVID-19 likely has a higher R0 than the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 50-100 million people.

For the US, 40-70% translates to 130-230 million Americans contracting COVID-19. Even if the CFR of the virus was only 1% this would cause 1-2 million US deaths and 30-50 million deaths worldwide.
Obviously this was predicated on Lipsitch's projections, which he made in early February prior to any lockdowns being placed.
  #644  
Old 04-23-2020, 01:44 AM
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I am very bored in my house. I think complete 2020 is going to waste for me.
  #645  
Old 04-23-2020, 06:21 AM
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Dseid, I love you to death and there's no doubt that Surreal is ignoring the plank in his own eye, but that prediction you made was significantly off. This doesn't mean it was was a bad prediction--there was deeply imperfect knowledge--but you were off qualitatively. Five thousand people died in the last 48 hours, and while the curve is flattening, it's not going down. We will likely be at 50,000 deaths by this weekend, and it seems very optimistic to me to assume that it will drop off so quickly past that that this will seem like a bad flue season, only more quickly. Italy is weeks past their peak, and they still are seeing over 400 deaths a day. We can say this is more intense than a "bad" flu season. I think it's too soon to say that it going to be much shorter.

Past that, we've reached the level of "bad flu season" due to incredible effort and sacrifice by the entire world. It seems undeniable to me that if we had reacted to this with the same precautions we consider appropriate for a "bad flu season"--the things we did in 2017-2018 and no more--we wouldn't be looking at a "bad flu season" now. So saying "it turned out bigger than I thought, but still within the range of normal" seems inaccurate.

Furthermore, I feel like you are moving the goalposts on "no societal meltdown". Is it Mad Max in the streets? No. But 25 million people applied for unemployment in the last month, a number so far out of normal that I think they will just have to cut it from future graphs and mark it with an asterisk. Half of lower income households have had someone lose a job or have hours cut. Oil is trading below zero. The Dow lost a third of its value in a few weeks. We have had persistent shortages of common household items--it's not just TP. There's alternatives--people are not starving--but it's still sobering to see empty grocery store shelves where you expect eggs or butter or pasta or flour to be. We did have the medical system of a major city entirely overrun. Nearly every facet of day to day life for nearly every American, and much of the world, has been substantially disrupted or transformed. The impact on our societal structures is nothing like the flu season of 2017-2018, and just because people aren't staging home invasions doesn't mean everything is fine.

Last edited by Manda JO; 04-23-2020 at 06:25 AM.
  #646  
Old 04-23-2020, 09:07 AM
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Manda JO oh I readily admit that that off the cuff WAG stab in February was simply wrong, more than "significantly off"! And I very much accept the great intensity of this disease's spread. This is far far from the mild flu season level event I was guessing it would be if it escaped.

That said I remain very comfortable defending the idea of this being in the range of a (compressed, very bad) flu season range, with a likely IFR of 0.3 or less (the number of the moment in that thread) as the better early WAG over the predictions that were saying people needed to hoard food and buy guns with literally millions of Americans dying as a the low end (which was the context of the conversation at the time). That was the goalposts of the conversation at the time Manda JO. People literally asking about if they should be buying guns to defend their hoarded food supplies.

How much of the damage we are having is from the disease, and how much from our response to the disease, is a very different discussion. I remain on the side of that discussion that much of what we have done and are doing is required but only because of inadequate information at many steps along the way due to poor pandemic preparedness, along with failed leadership, which has lead to such uncertainties. I believe we are, out of necessity born of uncertainties, causing significant harms with our responses that is not of the disease itself, that could have been avoided if the right actual evidence was available to guide decision-making by actual leadership at the right times.

What is clear now is that the germ had already not been contained well before the point of that conversation. It already had community spread in California at least, and if there then likely many other parts of the world. Some of us were hoping it would be able to be contained unaware that several horses were already grazing and mating in pastures many miles out of the barn and that the door was long off its hinges.

I am still actually comfortable with an expectation that 0.3% is a high end for the IFR and still hope for under 0.2%. But yes, if Lipsitch's early prediction was correct, and am thinking that it will be (or has) in at least in some areas, and 0.2 to 0.3 IFR is right, then it could end up more than three times as bad as a bad flu, maybe much more. And few have any real appreciation of how close to overwhelming some systems "just" the 2017-18 influenza year came.

You are completely correct that we don't know what will happen from here. All we can with confidence is that the U.S. is 6 days into being flat on its deaths per day per million number and that other countries ahead of us have dropped off on that rate at after about a week on the plateau. We don't know exactly what of what has been done has been effective to flatten the curve and what has been done without adding much good while still adding harms, and that lack of knowledge means that we need to release cautiously as well, until the knowledge gaps are filled in better, if they ever are, even as we appreciate the magnitude of the harms our responses, the very rational unavoidable ones and the irrational ones like hoarding, also cause.
  #647  
Old 04-23-2020, 10:02 AM
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I completely agree that this same disease probably could have been handled much less destructively if there had not be catastrophic failures of administration at all kinds of levels, and that if we had, as a world, acted very differently, things would be different. But you could say that about anything: the Spanish Flu didn't NEED to be so destructive, but wartime secrecy and a failure to appreciate how dangerous is was, lead to massive casualties. The Flood of 1927 didn't have to be so terrible, if people hadn't fucked it up from start to finish. A tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean might have saved hundreds of thousands in 2004.

Human incompetence, selfishness, and general inability to weigh risks or respond appropriately to circumstances is baked into any tragedy. You can't say "Well, CORVID-19 didn't crash the stock market and lay off a quarter of America, our bungled response to it did" any more than you can say "Well, the Boxing Day Tsunami wasn't really the issue, it was the bungled preparation and response". It's all the same.
  #648  
Old 04-23-2020, 03:33 PM
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Just a quick example to show how unrealistic the 0.2% IFR rate is: As of today New York City has had over 15,000 Covid-19 deaths (for the purposes of this post we'll ignore the additional 5,000 deaths that weren't officially counted but are thought to have resulted from the virus).

NYC has a population of 8.4 million. In order for the IFR to be 0.2%, 90% of the city's population would have to have been infected with the virus. This contradicts just about every piece of data that we've collected so far on Covid-19.
  #649  
Old 04-23-2020, 04:59 PM
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I am concerned enough that I started eating healthy and started exercising a lot. A lot of ppl told me the same. In 2017 I was 70 kg. My BMI (body mass index) was 25.7. That means I was very healthy. Now I am 82 kg and I am borderline obese. I think that's one of the good aspects of the pandemic.
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