Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-29-2020, 07:23 PM
dtilque is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: My own private Nogero
Posts: 7,809

Covid-19 at the conventions


Or at political rallies.

So far we've had 4 infections in the US which are not traceable to someone going to China or other places where there've been breakouts. So the virus is out in the community, spreading hither and yon. They've all been on the West Coast, but that doesn't mean the rest of the country is safe. These four are just the beginning; there should be plenty more all across the country in the next couple-three weeks.

Are presidential candidates going to have to stop holding rallies because of Covid 19? Cancel the conventions this summer? Hold the conventions via Skype?
  #2  
Old 02-29-2020, 08:15 PM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,312
I work in the trade show/convention business. I have already lost two gigs to COVID-19, one early May and one in late June. I expect to lose more.

Yes, one show I do is talking about no attendees but still having the presenters show up. The entire thing, every single session over 4 days, is already broadcast on the internet live and then available for later viewing on the company's website, so this would just mean that every session is done in an empty room instead of one filled with people.

I'm hoping they don't do that, because it would be a terrible trend for the industry.
  #3  
Old 02-29-2020, 08:22 PM
ITR champion is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Indiana
Posts: 10,483
No, no, and no.

The threat from coronavirus is greatly exaggerated. Thus far, worldwide, far more people have died from the flu than from coronavirus. Far more people have died from malaria than from the coronavirus. Far more people have died from a lot of causes than from coronavirus.

At this point in time we cannot say how far coronavirus will spread, how infectious it is, or what the death rate is, but the best guess at this time is that it is about as bad or perhaps slightly worse than a typical flu season. It does not merit massive quarantines, travel shutdowns, or cancellation of almost all public events. It's true that some countries have gone that route anyway, but as more data becomes available it will become clearer that the danger has been exaggerated, and pressure will build to cancel such extreme measures.
  #4  
Old 02-29-2020, 08:32 PM
dtilque is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: My own private Nogero
Posts: 7,809
Quote:
Originally Posted by ITR champion View Post
The threat from coronavirus is greatly exaggerated.
I agree it's greatly exaggerated. But people are starting to panic and that leads to bad decisions. France has cancelled all indoor events with more than 5000 people. If we did that here, they'd have to cancel the NBA and NHL seasons, or start playing in empty arenas.
  #5  
Old 02-29-2020, 10:28 PM
RioRico is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 3,193
Quote:
Originally Posted by ITR champion View Post
The threat from coronavirus is greatly exaggerated. Thus far, worldwide, far more people have died from the flu than from coronavirus. Far more people have died from malaria than from the coronavirus. Far more people have died from a lot of causes than from coronavirus.
Overexaggerated? We don't know yet. Yes, many more people have died of flu, malaria, and other ailments - because MANY MANY MANY more people have been exposed to those. Death rates of flu are low while mortality of CoViD-19 is much higher as far as we can tell. But any estimation is tough because lack of transparency at political levels.

How far and fast can a pandemic spread? If we think markets possess "wisdom" and investors risk their money on data, not ideology, then this one looks really, really serious. We're what, two months into this? The US conventions are still what, over four and five months away? Much can happen by then.

Here's a wild-ass speculation. Dems are realistic and set their convention as online only. Few delegates are infected. GOPs, buoyed by White House insistence that the Dem-media plot is squashed and everything is just hunky-dory, especially with the Mexican border sealed, gather en-masse in Charlotte. Everybody is infected. Numbers of Tramp delegates die but he's nominated anyway. Big deal; as the crisis spirals into autumn, the election MUST be postponed. Mail-ballot states will object. Too bad.

Spreading the virus in the US population will be pretty effective voter suppression.
  #6  
Old 02-29-2020, 11:24 PM
Smapti is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Olympia, WA
Posts: 16,931
Quote:
Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
Overexaggerated? Big deal; as the crisis spirals into autumn, the election MUST be postponed. Mail-ballot states will object. Too bad.
The federal government has no Constitutional mechanism by which to "postpone the election", nor does it have anything to do with the process. Presidential elections occur at the state level.
  #7  
Old 03-01-2020, 01:11 AM
Velocity is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 17,551
Quote:
Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
Spreading the virus in the US population will be pretty effective voter suppression.
If Covid-19 is still around in November, it might give Trump a slight vote boost, because rural areas with no lines or only short voting lines might not be afraid to show up to the polls, but in densely packed urban centers like Miami or Pittsburgh, people facing very long lines might be more afraid of virus contraction.
  #8  
Old 03-01-2020, 01:24 AM
Biotop's Avatar
Biotop is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Faber, VA
Posts: 8,948
There is no infectious disease threat would keep me away from voting against Trump.
  #9  
Old 03-01-2020, 03:48 AM
Broomstick's Avatar
Broomstick is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NW Indiana
Posts: 30,575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
If Covid-19 is still around in November, it might give Trump a slight vote boost, because rural areas with no lines or only short voting lines might not be afraid to show up to the polls, but in densely packed urban centers like Miami or Pittsburgh, people facing very long lines might be more afraid of virus contraction.
Or, conversely, the epidemic will have already been through Miami and Pittsburgh and gone, so voters will show up, but because it was delayed getting to the rural areas by November lots of folks in the sticks are sick in bed and don't vote.

We just don't know what November will look like sitting here in March.
  #10  
Old 03-01-2020, 04:00 PM
Hari Seldon is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Trantor
Posts: 13,854
Could states cancel the elections and have their electors chosen by the state legislature? I see no reason why not unless the state constitution forbids it. Certainly the US constitution leaves it up to the states. I assume this would give it to Trump on account of gerrymandering.
  #11  
Old 03-01-2020, 04:11 PM
Locrian is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Valley Village, CA
Posts: 4,670
I won't be surprised if Orangeanus says, "I won't get it because of my orange makeup" at a convention and starts to sell Trump brand face concealer and medication.
  #12  
Old 03-01-2020, 05:16 PM
enipla is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Colorado Rockies.
Posts: 15,311
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biotop View Post
There is no infectious disease threat would keep me away from voting against Trump.
Yup, I just wish my ballot was fashioned after a Louisville Slugger. And I could deliver it personally.
__________________
I don't live in the middle of nowhere, but I can see it from here.
  #13  
Old 03-01-2020, 06:51 PM
RioRico is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 3,193
Quote:
Originally Posted by enipla View Post
Yup, I just wish my ballot was fashioned after a Louisville Slugger. And I could deliver it personally.
Be very careful with physically assaulting political figures. You might miss.
  #14  
Old 03-01-2020, 10:40 PM
elucidator is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Further
Posts: 60,689
Nuking from orbit is not a practical solution. And, it lacks the personal touch.
  #15  
Old 03-02-2020, 08:42 AM
DesertDog is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Mesa, Ariz.
Posts: 6,497
Quote:
Originally Posted by Locrian View Post
I won't be surprised if Orangeanus says, "I won't get it because of my orange makeup" at a convention and starts to sell Trump brand face concealer and medication.
If, God forbid, I came down with the virus I think I'd buy a MAGA hat and show up at one of his rallies being sure to shake the bastard's hand. After all, he's said it's no big deal and anyway, he has Topp Men working on it.

I'll have to practice working up a tear while saying in a quavering voice, "Mr. President, sir? Thank you for ridding us of this dread disease." He'll lap it up.
  #16  
Old 03-03-2020, 10:48 AM
C3 is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Posts: 4,217
It's not just the rally/convention attendees that could be at risk. All of our current presidential candidates are in their 70s (except for Tulsi), some of them with medical histories that put them at an increased risk for serious complications or death from Covid-19. For the next 8ish months they'll all be out there shaking hands and kissing babies, while probably not getting a lot of sleep.
  #17  
Old 03-03-2020, 10:59 AM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 12,165
some people have started to bump elbows instead of shaking hands.
  #18  
Old 04-10-2020, 12:34 PM
Dan Turk is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Pinellas Park, FL, USA
Posts: 290
Looking at the "information" we had on dates referenced in these posts is incredible.
  #19  
Old 04-10-2020, 01:30 PM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 12,165
Simply no need to hold conventions now. They will be all about Trump and Biden. They can have everyone give their speeches from a TV studio. Other things can be voted on online.

I'm sure Trump will fight tooth and nail to keep his coronation party so maybe the GOP will have it anyway.
  #20  
Old 04-10-2020, 02:58 PM
dtilque is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: My own private Nogero
Posts: 7,809
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Turk View Post
Looking at the "information" we had on dates referenced in these posts is incredible.
I'm not sure I understand the gist of your post. Are you thinking the thread was prescient? If so, I'll take a bow, but I don't think epidemiologists would agree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
Simply no need to hold conventions now. They will be all about Trump and Biden. They can have everyone give their speeches from a TV studio. Other things can be voted on online.

I'm sure Trump will fight tooth and nail to keep his coronation party so maybe the GOP will have it anyway.
Democrats have already moved theirs to August and are talking about having a virtual convention. I haven't heard anything about R plans, but I'm sure many of them are thinking the same way.
  #21  
Old 04-10-2020, 03:53 PM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 12,165
the most unhappy people will be the hotels and eateries and other places in Charlotte (R) and Milwaukee (D) , they were looking forward to a week with a lot of cash flowing in.
  #22  
Old 04-11-2020, 11:51 AM
RioRico is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 3,193
This thread started less than 6 weeks ago. Note the first few posts. Conventions are cancelling, but don't worry, the virus is over-exaggerated. Right. I predicted disruption but no, don't worry, and feds can't cancel elections. Uh-huh. But with a second wave of infections come September, and a shortage of body bags, national declaration of martial law isn't beyond possibility. Oh, but that can't happen here! Right.
  #23  
Old 04-11-2020, 01:32 PM
Tamerlane is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: SF Bay Area, California
Posts: 14,216
Quote:
Originally Posted by dtilque View Post
I'm not sure I understand the gist of your post.
I assume it refers to comments like this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ITR champion View Post
No, no, and no.

The threat from coronavirus is greatly exaggerated. Thus far, worldwide, far more people have died from the flu than from coronavirus. Far more people have died from malaria than from the coronavirus. Far more people have died from a lot of causes than from coronavirus.

At this point in time we cannot say how far coronavirus will spread, how infectious it is, or what the death rate is, but the best guess at this time is that it is about as bad or perhaps slightly worse than a typical flu season. It does not merit massive quarantines, travel shutdowns, or cancellation of almost all public events. It's true that some countries have gone that route anyway, but as more data becomes available it will become clearer that the danger has been exaggerated, and pressure will build to cancel such extreme measures.

Last edited by Tamerlane; 04-11-2020 at 01:33 PM.
  #24  
Old 04-11-2020, 02:21 PM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 12,165
tons of other conventions are already cancelled. some places have already cancelled July 4th events. No need to get 18,000 people in 1 building to do the obvious.
  #25  
Old 04-11-2020, 10:32 PM
Kolak of Twilo's Avatar
Kolak of Twilo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Edgewater/Chicago
Posts: 4,089
Quote:
Originally Posted by ITR champion View Post
No, no, and no.

The threat from coronavirus is greatly exaggerated. Thus far, worldwide, far more people have died from the flu than from coronavirus. Far more people have died from malaria than from the coronavirus. Far more people have died from a lot of causes than from coronavirus.

At this point in time we cannot say how far coronavirus will spread, how infectious it is, or what the death rate is, but the best guess at this time is that it is about as bad or perhaps slightly worse than a typical flu season. It does not merit massive quarantines, travel shutdowns, or cancellation of almost all public events. It's true that some countries have gone that route anyway, but as more data becomes available it will become clearer that the danger has been exaggerated, and pressure will build to cancel such extreme measures.
I was curious if you might want to revisit this post.
  #26  
Old 04-15-2020, 12:34 PM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 12,165
GOP full steam ahead for Aug. convention. This probably comes from Trump.

https://www.wral.com/rnc-moving-full...otte/19057232/
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:14 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017