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Old 03-12-2020, 03:05 PM
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Don't tell me Democrats can't contest IA, MO, KY, TN, AR, LA in the general


Democrats can compete in all these states this fall.
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Old 03-12-2020, 03:07 PM
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OK I won't tell you that but I believe it. Of those 6 maybe IA is winnable.
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Old 03-12-2020, 03:24 PM
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Don't tell me the Tennessee Volunteers can't compete with the KC Chiefs.

Just put them on the same field and let's find out.
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Old 03-12-2020, 03:27 PM
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I think this election year is one where almost anything can happen. So was 2016; we just didn't know it until early November.
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Old 03-12-2020, 03:28 PM
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We're certainly going to try.

I'm just not going to be surprised if we fail.
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Old 03-12-2020, 03:30 PM
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Yes, they can certainly compete in those states. I could enter a beauty pageant too.

Regards,
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Old 03-12-2020, 03:37 PM
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IA, MO, KY, TN, AR, LA Would be tough, very tough. But it doesn't matter that much as Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan & Wisconsin all have a good chance of going Dem at the top of the ticket and hopefully coat-tailing plenty of lower offices.

I think Arizona & Georgia are two states where Trump is likely to win but the Dems might take Senate seats. Any Republican Senate up for election in a Blue State and the Purple states are at risk.
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Old 03-12-2020, 05:31 PM
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With the exception on one state, in the Electoral College states are winner-take-all. Democratic effort spent in trying to win KY, TN, or AR are completely wasted, as limiting losses still gives Republicans a win in their mainly safe states. For that matter, Trump shouldn't bother trying to campaign in California, as he will never win Bernie territory.

Democrats might win local seats in those states, though. Especially if Biden kicks some behind in the campaign, it makes sense to add a few extra Democratic House seats.
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Old 03-12-2020, 06:05 PM
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Sigh. I remember when Missouri used to be a bellwether state. Alas.

In 2016, Trump beat Clinton 56.4%-37.9%, about 1.6M to 1.1M votes. I'd love to see us go blue again, but that's going to be a tough climb. We'd have to get a hellacious turnout in the St. Louis and KC metro areas plus Boone County (Columbia, MO, where Mizzou is), plus convince at least some rural voters that not selling soybeans to China was kind of bad for them. Possible, but it's not going to be easy.

In 2008, McCain beat Obama here by only 0.1%, about 4000 votes. Romney took MO by almost 10% in 2012. So we haven't been solid red forever, but we've been heading in the wrong direction the past two cycles. And Joe Biden is no Obama, so I don't see him reversing that direction.

All of which makes me sad.
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Old 03-12-2020, 06:16 PM
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I am an Arkansan. I see no chance that the Democrats win here. Being a Dem is more accepted than the deep South, but Trump has pretty much bamboozled most of the state. I am also close to Missouri (probably 20-ish minutes), and have friends up there. I think there might be a slim chance up there, because Missouri has been more Democratic in the past.

But that's subjective experience. I think what is useful is looking at what FiveThirtyEight does, by looking at how states are correlated. Unfortunately, I'm not easily finding the ranks from last time, but maybe someone else could. It was basically just a list of states where, for your state to go blue, the states above it would likely also be blue. What I do remember is that Arkansas was pretty far down, with 9x% certainty that it would not flip.

If anyone could find that, it might be useful. I thought it was a great way of looking at this thing.
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Old 03-12-2020, 06:25 PM
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If the Democrats try win any red states, the focus should be on Texas, Georgia, and Arizona. The states mentioned in the OP don’t make much sense to target.
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Old 03-12-2020, 07:30 PM
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I've been saying ever since the 2018 midterms that the Dems have a decent chance of picking up Iowa's 6 electoral votes this November. After all, the Dems got a majority of Iowa's House votes in 2018, and the vote in all four seats was close enough to give partisans a reason to show up.

But the other five? Not a chance.
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Old 03-12-2020, 08:25 PM
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Hey! We have a good chance at L.A.
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Old 03-12-2020, 08:31 PM
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Iowa I think is most definitely in play. I think Joni Ernst has overstayed her welcome and the tariff war has screwed the farmers plus everyone took a bath in their 401k this past 2 weeks.

Missouri would be a stretch. But if corona kills 1% of the population maybe that will start a tsunami.

Kentucky- I don't see it but Moscow Mitch could possibly lose.

Tennessee- no way. If Al Gore couldn't carry his home state why would Biden take it.

Arkansas no way. If Satan had an R next to his name he'd win.

Louisiana no way, but not as impossible as Arkansas.
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Old 03-12-2020, 09:12 PM
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Tennessee- no way. If Al Gore couldn't carry his home state why would Biden take it.
That was 20 years ago. Do you think Gore lost the state because Tennessee is somehow tied to the Republican party forevermore? In that time, Virginia has gone blue, and North Carolina has gone purple.

It might be so that Biden doesn't have a good chance of winning Tennessee, but I don't think that Gore's performance in 2000 is a good basis for drawing that conclusion.
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:49 PM
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What I love is that Virginia is now Blue, and NC is purple. Not to mention, if Beto campaigns hard for Biden, the GOP and trump will have to work really hard in Texas. That will draw $$ and time away for the other purple states.

And if Biden picks the Veep many think he will pick, Georgia will be in play. Mind you- I dont think he will win it, but it will be a contest. 32% is Black and only 58% is white and half of that is women. The bad news is that may kiss off Az.

Iowa will be a battleground.

Florida will be the big battle.

Biden is apparently VERY popular in Mich.
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Old 03-12-2020, 11:01 PM
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Given that Bloomberg's accounts are going to defray much of the cost of campaigning in the must win states, spending some elsewhere may be worthwhile this time.

The payoff may be improbable at the top of the ticket for most of them but there can still be reasonable ROI from local races to Senator level contests, in individual cases. Pick the local races strategically and even in Arkansas there can be some ROI.
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Old 03-13-2020, 12:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
Iowa I think is most definitely in play. I think Joni Ernst has overstayed her welcome and the tariff war has screwed the farmers plus everyone took a bath in their 401k this past 2 weeks.



Missouri would be a stretch. But if corona kills 1% of the population maybe that will start a tsunami.



Kentucky- I don't see it but Moscow Mitch could possibly lose.



Tennessee- no way. If Al Gore couldn't carry his home state why would Biden take it.



Arkansas no way. If Satan had an R next to his name he'd win.



Louisiana no way, but not as impossible as Arkansas.
Many in Kentucky are fed up with Mitch. I can't say that enough are to spoil his reelection efforts, but many of us are determined to do our part. We've already got rid of Matt Bevin.
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Old 03-13-2020, 12:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acsenray View Post
That was 20 years ago. Do you think Gore lost the state because Tennessee is somehow tied to the Republican party forevermore? In that time, Virginia has gone blue, and North Carolina has gone purple.

It might be so that Biden doesn't have a good chance of winning Tennessee, but I don't think that Gore's performance in 2000 is a good basis for drawing that conclusion.
Tennessee has gotten far redder since Gore. Clinton/Gore winning TN was the last time we will see a Dem win in TN
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Old 03-13-2020, 01:54 AM
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Yes, they can certainly compete in those states. I could enter a beauty pageant too.

Regards,
Shodan
I'd vote for you. I'm sure you'd look divine in an evening gown.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
Iowa I think is most definitely in play. I think Joni Ernst has overstayed her welcome and the tariff war has screwed the farmers plus everyone took a bath in their 401k this past 2 weeks.
I wouldn't bet on that in November. I expect the losses on Wall Street will have had ample time to reverse themselves by then.
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