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  #1  
Old 01-09-2018, 10:38 AM
not what you'd expect not what you'd expect is offline
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Joe Arpaio is running for US Senate seat.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/trum...nate-seat.html

From the link.

"Trump ally and pardoned sheriff Joe Arpaio is running for Jeff Flake's Senate seat in Arizona"


I can't say I'm surprised. What are his chances?
  #2  
Old 01-09-2018, 10:51 AM
Chronos Chronos is online now
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We all knew he was going to. And I can't remember who the likely Democrat was for that seat, but IIRC, it was someone pretty popular. It looks to me like Old Joe is doing his part to help flip the Senate.

What I'm more interested in is who's each party's understudy for this race? It's only a matter of time before McCain dies or retires, and we have a special election.
  #3  
Old 01-09-2018, 11:04 AM
iiandyiiii iiandyiiii is online now
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No one better than Arpaio to motivate young and Latino Democrats in Arizona to register and vote. Hateful and horrible man who should be in jail, and would be, were it not for the idiot in chief.
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Old 01-09-2018, 11:07 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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I started a thread about this a few months ago. At the time I said:

Quote:
Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
... here's my WAG thinking:

1) 10% chance he runs

2) (assuming he does run) 25% chance he wins the Republican nomination

3) (assuming he wins the R nomination) 40% chance he wins the seat
  #5  
Old 01-09-2018, 11:14 AM
Ambrosio Spinola Ambrosio Spinola is offline
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Makes you wonder if Jeff Flake jumped the gun a bit on the retirement. He was clearly going to lose to one lunatic in a primary, but with two lunatics to split the lunatic vote he might well have come out on top. (In Arizona do the top two finishers have a runoff, or does the most votes just win outright? This would obviously be important for Flake to consider as well.)
  #6  
Old 01-09-2018, 11:20 AM
Chimera Chimera is online now
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Sheriff Arpaio managed to keep getting elected in that one county, but how popular is he in the rest of the state?

Besides the fact that this fucker is already 85 years old.
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  #7  
Old 01-09-2018, 11:22 AM
RickJay RickJay is online now
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Not being satisfied with running accused criminals for Senate, the Republicans are moving up to convicted, admitted criminals.
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  #8  
Old 01-09-2018, 11:23 AM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
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The Good- If he wins the nomination it puts the Arizona seat in play for Democrats

The Bad- The fucker might actually win

The Ugly- Arpaio's racism
  #9  
Old 01-09-2018, 12:29 PM
Bricker Bricker is offline
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
No one better than Arpaio to motivate young and Latino Democrats in Arizona to register and vote. Hateful and horrible man who should be in jail, and would be, were it not for the idiot in chief.
Factually incorrect.
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Old 01-09-2018, 12:40 PM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
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Originally Posted by Bricker View Post
Factually incorrect.
I don't follow- he was convicted and pardoned. Why would he not have been sentenced had not the pardon been issued?
  #11  
Old 01-09-2018, 12:47 PM
Vinyl Turnip Vinyl Turnip is online now
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When I saw the breaking news banner "Ex-Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio" I really, really hoped it would end with "...dead at 85."

If that makes me a terrible person, so be it. If not, there's plenty of other things that do.
  #12  
Old 01-09-2018, 12:47 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
I don't follow- he was convicted and pardoned. Why would he not have been sentenced had not the pardon been issued?
Just a guess: I think the expected punishment (had it not been for the pardon) was probation, not jail time. I don't know though.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 01-09-2018 at 12:49 PM.
  #13  
Old 01-09-2018, 12:48 PM
Vinyl Turnip Vinyl Turnip is online now
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Maybe Bricker has iron-clad proof that Arpaio is a lovely, wonderful man.
  #14  
Old 01-09-2018, 12:56 PM
Czarcasm Czarcasm is offline
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I predict a minimum of three posters that will say "Don't worry-it can't happen" then, if he is elected, support him.
  #15  
Old 01-09-2018, 01:00 PM
The Stainless Steel Rat The Stainless Steel Rat is online now
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So there is the "establishment" Republican candidate (Martha McSally), the one backed by the "Bannon/Mercer" team (Kelli Ward), and Arpaio (will he get Trump's backing?).

Could get rather interesting.

Oh, and Chimera asked:
Quote:
Sheriff Arpaio managed to keep getting elected in that one county, but how popular is he in the rest of the state?
Well, Maricopa county has (including Phoenix) right about 60% of the entire population of the state of Arizona, so if he has a strong base there, well...

Could Alabama history repeat? Stay tuned for further developments.
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  #16  
Old 01-09-2018, 01:00 PM
iiandyiiii iiandyiiii is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bricker View Post
Factually incorrect.
Which part? If he wouldn't have faced jail-time, then I made a boo-boo. In the future, perhaps you could be specific instead of just making blanket and citeless refutations?
  #17  
Old 01-09-2018, 01:01 PM
beowulff beowulff is offline
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I'd be willing to be that he's more popular outside of Maricopa County than inside of it. But, since all the other counties combined have only half the population of Maricopa, that may help him very much.
  #18  
Old 01-09-2018, 01:47 PM
Northern Piper Northern Piper is online now
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What is the typical voter turn-out for sheriff election compared to Senate elections?
  #19  
Old 01-09-2018, 02:20 PM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
Just a guess: I think the expected punishment (had it not been for the pardon) was probation, not jail time. I don't know though.
So the pardon saved him from {gasp} probation? Why bother? As far as I know, punishment was not yet set.
  #20  
Old 01-09-2018, 02:34 PM
John Mace John Mace is offline
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So the pardon saved him from {gasp} probation? Why bother? As far as I know, punishment was not yet set.
Yep. Sentencing had been set for later this month, so he "would" not be in jail (yet) even without the pardon. As for what his sentence would have been... we'll never know. AFAIK, his offense was not subject to any mandatory sentencing rules.
  #21  
Old 01-09-2018, 02:41 PM
Just Asking Questions Just Asking Questions is offline
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I'd be willing to be that he's more popular outside of Maricopa County than inside of it.
He's annoyingly popular outside of Arizona. Tough "law and order" guys always have a following. They've never had to deal with the downside on a daily basis - the lawsuits specifically, but the general buffoonery as well. They may have found the abuses of power something they would have liked, though.

Other than the politics, Arizona is a nice place to live. But the politics! Ugh. We may not get Arpaio, but we might get "Chemtrail Kelli".

Last edited by Just Asking Questions; 01-09-2018 at 02:41 PM.
  #22  
Old 01-09-2018, 03:13 PM
Johnny Ace Johnny Ace is offline
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Considering that he lost the election for sheriff a couple of years ago, I wouldn't count on his popularity in Maricopa County either.

2016 Sheriff's election, Maricopa County:
Penzone (D) - 665,478 (55.6%)
Arpaio (R) - 531,674 (44.4%)
Total votes: 1,197,152

For comparison, Maricopa County Senate election results, 2016:

McCain (R) - 653,754 (54.9%)
Kirkpatrick (D) - 475,311 (39.9%)
Swing (Green) - 62,749 (5.3%)
Total votes: 1,191,814

So very comparable vote numbers.
  #23  
Old 01-09-2018, 03:32 PM
The Stainless Steel Rat The Stainless Steel Rat is online now
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Johnny Ace, you're probably right, but if the Bannon/Mercer conservative takes enough votes from the 'establishment' candidate and those most stalwart Arpaio voters stick with him, well, we've already seen what can happen in Alabama.

But he is 85 and according to rumors, hearsay, and innuendo, he's mentally 'not all there'. And as others have pointed out, it will energize the opposition something fierce.

Not that this appears to be a insolvable problem in American politics (and I'm not just talking about the present, check out our interesting history sometime).
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  #24  
Old 01-09-2018, 03:41 PM
Little Nemo Little Nemo is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bricker View Post
Factually incorrect.
Bricker, this is the kind of post that gets people annoyed with you.

If you believe a post is factually incorrect, don't simply declare it is so. Explain what the correct facts are.
  #25  
Old 01-09-2018, 03:45 PM
John Mace John Mace is offline
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Maybe Bricker was referring to this when he said "factually incorrect":

Quote:
Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
No one better than Arpaio to motivate young and Latino Democrats in Arizona to register and vote.

  #26  
Old 01-09-2018, 03:53 PM
Johnny Ace Johnny Ace is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Stainless Steel Rat View Post
Johnny Ace, you're probably right, but if the Bannon/Mercer conservative takes enough votes from the 'establishment' candidate and those most stalwart Arpaio voters stick with him, well, we've already seen what can happen in Alabama.

But he is 85 and according to rumors, hearsay, and innuendo, he's mentally 'not all there'. And as others have pointed out, it will energize the opposition something fierce.

Not that this appears to be a insolvable problem in American politics (and I'm not just talking about the present, check out our interesting history sometime).
There's also the Green party candidate (whoever he is) that will run and suck votes away from the Democrat. I wouldn't make any kind of prediction on this one, other than that my general sense is that Arpaio would lose. And none of my senses are reliable since Nov. of 2016.
  #27  
Old 01-09-2018, 04:35 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is online now
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The good thing is that Arizona Democrats don't tend to be especially pure and most understand they don't have the luxury of throwing their votes away on silly Green party candidates.

Immigration issues shouldn't dominate in 2018 unless the economy heads seriously south. Arizona was walloped in the housing crisis and Jan Brewer and the Republicans hid their tax increases behind the stupid 'papers please' law. The Democrats do need to make sure they don't make DACA a hill to die on, however. Get something done, but don't make it front page news for months at a time.

Arpaio might be able to raise money out of state, but I wonder how much serious donations will an 85 year old first time Senate candidate will get during a year which is shaping up to be a Democratic wave.

Last edited by dalej42; 01-09-2018 at 04:36 PM.
  #28  
Old 01-09-2018, 05:24 PM
Johnny Ace Johnny Ace is offline
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Bear in mind one other point: the Sheriff's election in 2016 happened two weeks before Arpaio was indicted. I'd expect at least a little blowback from that scenario as well.
  #29  
Old 01-09-2018, 05:35 PM
Snowboarder Bo Snowboarder Bo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by not what you'd expect View Post
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/trum...nate-seat.html

From the link.

"Trump ally and pardoned sheriff Joe Arpaio is running for Jeff Flake's Senate seat in Arizona"


I can't say I'm surprised. What are his chances?
Not what you'd expect not what you'd expect; not what you'd expect.
  #30  
Old 01-09-2018, 05:39 PM
Snowboarder Bo Snowboarder Bo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
Bricker, this is the kind of post that gets people annoyed with you.

If you believe a post is factually incorrect, don't simply declare it is so. Explain what the correct facts are.
The shitty thing is declaring the entire post factually incorrect when it is not.
  #31  
Old 01-09-2018, 06:23 PM
pjacks pjacks is offline
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Arpaio vs Kyrsten Sinema, the likely dem candidate... Who wins?

tbh I've been puzzled why everyone considers her to be such a strong recruit. She's a bisexual agnostic running in Arizona... this to me sounds like a poor fit for a southwestern purple state. With her last name, the attack ads practically write themselves.
  #32  
Old 01-09-2018, 10:49 PM
GIGObuster GIGObuster is offline
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Originally Posted by pjacks View Post
Arpaio vs Kyrsten Sinema, the likely dem candidate... Who wins?

tbh I've been puzzled why everyone considers her to be such a strong recruit. She's a bisexual agnostic running in Arizona... this to me sounds like a poor fit for a southwestern purple state. With her last name, the attack ads practically write themselves.
[Joker]
This town needs a Sinema!
[/J]

And when you consider that we did when we got rid of Arpaio in the past election, I see that a similar thing will take place in the senate election.

Over here in Arizona even Republicans did notice that some of their leaders do cost dearly to the treasury with their pursuit of their extremist views (not only on the money wasted defending the likes of Arpaio, but with the lost opportunities when businesses avoided coming to Arizona when Arapaio and law maker henchmen where making bigoted laws and enforcing them.)

We really need to purge all those Republican congress critters. Specially when they are clearly incompetent and with the ugliest character.
  #33  
Old 01-10-2018, 12:30 AM
Lord Feldon Lord Feldon is offline
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She's a bisexual agnostic running in Arizona... this to me sounds like a poor fit for a southwestern purple state.
Arizona is one of the less religious states, and I think it's the only state where a referendum against gay marriage failed back when those were in vogue (it later passed in a watered-down form, but I think there were no other states where the harshest version of the ban was put up for a vote but failed).

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 01-10-2018 at 12:31 AM.
  #34  
Old 01-10-2018, 06:46 AM
not what you'd expect not what you'd expect is offline
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Not what you'd expect not what you'd expect; not what you'd expect.
  #35  
Old 01-10-2018, 06:17 PM
Jacquernagy Jacquernagy is online now
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Would it be wrong if I thought it would be great if Joe Arpaio was to suffer a stroke and brain damage that left him completely paralyzed, in immense physical agony, and fully conscious but intermittently afflicted with terrifying hallucinations and periodic drops in dopamine and serotonin levels that turned his consciousness into a Black Mirror-style nightmare?

I'm truly thinking about whether or not this would be wrong. You know, I think it would be wrong.

If I'm going to fantasize about things, my fantasy should be something positive. So my fantasy is going to be that Joe Arpaio spontaneously decides to donate all of his assets to the families of all the people he hurt and killed, delivers a vociferous speech completely disavowing and denouncing the abuses of the US penal system and admitting that he was a part of it and apologizing for it, and then takes a vow of poverty and goes to live in a monastery and spends the rest of his existence asking God for forgiveness and performing labor at the monastery to produce some kind of item that is sold to raise money to be contributed to help the needy.

Yes, that's going to my fantasy about Joe Arpaio.

Definitely.

Really.

I'm not going to think that first thing anymore. I'm seriously going to try to not think it at all. In fact I am trying right now. Very hard.

Life is a series of trials.

Last edited by Jacquernagy; 01-10-2018 at 06:19 PM. Reason: It truly is.
  #36  
Old 01-10-2018, 06:24 PM
Rick Kitchen Rick Kitchen is online now
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Originally Posted by The Stainless Steel Rat View Post
So there is the "establishment" Republican candidate (Martha McSally), the one backed by the "Bannon/Mercer" team (Kelli Ward), and Arpaio (will he get Trump's backing?).

Could get rather interesting.

Oh, and Chimera asked:

Well, Maricopa county has (including Phoenix) right about 60% of the entire population of the state of Arizona, so if he has a strong base there, well...

Could Alabama history repeat? Stay tuned for further developments.
Revenge Porner Craig Brittain is also running for the Republican nomination.
  #37  
Old 01-10-2018, 06:29 PM
Rick Kitchen Rick Kitchen is online now
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There's also the Green party candidate (whoever he is) that will run and suck votes away from the Democrat. I wouldn't make any kind of prediction on this one, other than that my general sense is that Arpaio would lose. And none of my senses are reliable since Nov. of 2016.
The Green candidate is Eve Reyes Aguirre - https://www.evereyesaguirre.com/
The Democrats include former Iowa state Representative Richard Sherzan
and Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema
  #38  
Old 01-10-2018, 06:34 PM
nightshadea nightshadea is offline
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I read today that theres no less than 4 convicted felons running for congress this year .......
  #39  
Old 01-11-2018, 07:18 AM
ElvisL1ves ElvisL1ves is offline
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Not all felons, but convicted, yes. All on the ticket of the party of Law and Order.

Arpaio's candidacy makes the AZ GOP primary a train wreck.
  #40  
Old 01-11-2018, 08:59 AM
John Mace John Mace is offline
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He's now reviving birtherism.

Quote:
Arizona Senate candidate and convicted criminal Joe Arpaio on Wednesday questioned the authenticity of former President Barack Obama’s birth certificate, a revival of a racist conspiracy theory championed for years by President Donald Trump.

“It’s a phony document,” Arpaio told CNN’s Chris Cuomo on Wednesday, claiming to have “evidence” that he document isn’t real, but providing no proof for his allegation.

“We have the evidence, nobody will talk about it, nobody will look at it, and anytime you want to come down or anybody we’ll be glad to show you the evidence,” said Arpaio, who announced his Senate run this week.
We have evidences, we does!

Last edited by John Mace; 01-11-2018 at 09:00 AM.
  #41  
Old 01-11-2018, 09:40 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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I want to see Arpaio's long-form psych report.
  #42  
Old 01-11-2018, 11:42 AM
GIGObuster GIGObuster is offline
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I think I saw this movie before:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...ry-for-arizona
Quote:
The ABC15/OHPI poll shows 85-year-old Arpaio, who on Tuesday announced his plans to run for the Senate seat, has 29 percent support in the race.

McSally, 51, who is also expected to jump into the race soon but has not made a formal announcement, has 31 percent support, according to the poll.

Former state Sen. Kelli Ward, 48, has 25 percent support in the poll.

The poll was conducted Tuesday among 504 likely Republican voters. Its margin of error is 4.36 percentage points.
So, if Arpaio does manage to win the Republican primary it will be most likely after a very, very divisive campaign. Then I think that with the outlook of the state losing lots of businesses, and with the minorities activism/vote becoming more active if Arpaio gets the nomination, will sink Arpaio in the general election.

Last edited by GIGObuster; 01-11-2018 at 11:44 AM.
  #43  
Old 01-11-2018, 01:18 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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Alexa, buy up ALL the popcorn!
  #44  
Old 01-11-2018, 01:44 PM
John Mace John Mace is offline
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I think I saw this movie before
We may have to see it one moore time.
  #45  
Old 01-11-2018, 01:51 PM
JohnT JohnT is online now
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I guess going from "our most controversial candidate is an accused pedophile who got banned from the mall" to "our most controversial candidate is a racist sheriff who ran a concentration camp" is an improvement... right?
  #46  
Old 01-11-2018, 03:11 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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We may have to see it one moore time.
Baaaad.
  #47  
Old 01-11-2018, 03:13 PM
Sicks Ate Sicks Ate is offline
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Alexa, buy up ALL the popcorn!
That's funny, and if you came up with it good on ya.
  #48  
Old 01-12-2018, 08:15 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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That's funny, and if you came up with it good on ya.
I wish I could claim credit! I got it from 'Betty Cracker,' one of the front-pagers at the Balloon Juice blog.

A Google search also turns up Rick Wilson, a GOP political strategist, using it on Twitter, so I have no idea who it originated with.
  #49  
Old 01-12-2018, 11:56 AM
stpauler stpauler is offline
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If you haven't watched Joe Arpaio get directly asked about his pardon on MSNBC, get the Reddenbacher popped first.
  #50  
Old 01-13-2018, 07:33 AM
DummyGladHands DummyGladHands is offline
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Originally Posted by stpauler View Post
If you haven't watched Joe Arpaio get directly asked about his pardon on MSNBC, get the Reddenbacher popped first.
Blocked from the link at work, is there even 1 coherent sentence? I have met him, he is completely and utterly senile.

Last edited by DummyGladHands; 01-13-2018 at 07:34 AM.
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